Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Wed May 28 04:45:29 2025)
Major Updates
Deep Strikes on Moscow Oblast Continue & Airport Disruptions Confirmed (Intensified & New): New reports and visual evidence from "Два майора" and STERNENKO further confirm drone attacks on the "Kronstadt" drone development enterprise in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. This corroborates and intensifies the previous assessment of significant impact on high-value industrial targets, indicating a clear strategic shift towards degrading Russia's military-industrial complex. The reported damage to "Elma Technopark" in Zelenograd and the "Kronstadt" enterprise underscores the increasing effectiveness and strategic targeting of Ukrainian deep strikes. Crucially, "ASTRA", "РБК-Україна" and "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirm widespread flight cancellations and delays at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport due to UAV attacks, with "Победа" rerouting flights and "Росавиация" later reporting temporary lifting of restrictions. This indicates a direct operational impact on Russian civilian infrastructure and air travel, adding to the pressure on Moscow.
Continued Civilian Casualties in Ukraine (Confirmed & Expanded): The Kherson Oblast Military Administration (OVA) reports a 70-year-old man was injured in Bilozirka by an explosive dropped from a Russian UAV onto a civilian car. Separately, the Kirovohrad Oblast OVA (Райковий) reports damage to an industrial enterprise and multiple homes, with injuries, in Svitlovodsk due to a Russian attack. This further underscores the ongoing direct impact of Russian military operations on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure beyond the Kharkiv region.
Russian Claims Regarding Kharkiv Oblast (No New Developments): The previous report of Russian forces securing Stroevka in Kharkiv Oblast and advancing 1 km into Ukrainian defenses by Andrey Marochko via TASS remains unverified by new messages. A video from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claiming a fire at an "Azov" "shelter" in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, is propaganda consistent with previous Russian information warfare.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian Guided Bomb Attack (New): Serhiy Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports Russian forces used KABs (guided bombs) against the Malomykhailivska community in Synelnykivshchyna. Consequences are being clarified. This indicates continued Russian aerial pressure on civilian areas in southern Ukraine.
Russian Military Personnel Losses (Confirmed & Expanded): Ukrainian General Staff (ЗСУ) and "РБК-Україна" provide updated approximate Russian combat losses as of May 28, 2025 (likely a typo for 2024), reporting an additional 1050 Russian personnel eliminated in the past day, along with 4 tanks and 18 artillery systems. This confirms the sustained high rate of Russian casualties.
Russian Domestic Developments (New): TASS reports a prototype of the domestic Russian electric car "Atom" completed a test drive in Moscow, highlighting ongoing domestic economic development. TASS also reports Russia has halved its import of Belarusian potatoes since the beginning of 2025, indicating a shift in agricultural trade relations. The New York Times is cited by TASS as reporting that Trump might be preparing a large-scale deal with Russia and China on spheres of influence.
Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics
Donetsk Oblast: Continued Propaganda Regarding Gains (No New Developments): "Воин DV" shows video of an aerial perspective of explosions in an open field, which is consistent with ongoing Russian artillery or air strikes, but no specific location or direct link to frontline changes is provided. The previous report of Colonelcassad's propaganda and "Воин DV" showing TOS-2 systems near Komar remains relevant.
Kharkiv Oblast: Information Warfare Continues: The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video claiming a fire at an "Azov" "shelter" in Izyum is part of ongoing Russian information warfare attempting to portray gains or target specific Ukrainian units. No new information to confirm Russian ground advances in the region.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: KAB Strikes (New): The use of KABs in Malomykhailivska community indicates continued Russian aerial bombardment capabilities impacting civilian areas.
Aerial & Naval Activity
Escalated Ukrainian Deep Strikes on Russian Territory: Confirmed Airport Disruptions: The most significant development is the confirmed disruption of operations at Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo airports in Moscow due to UAV attacks. This represents a tangible and immediate impact on Russian civilian life and logistics, demonstrating the ability of Ukrainian deep strikes to create widespread disruption. The confirmed strikes on "Kronstadt" (Dubna) and "Elma Technopark" (Zelenograd) further highlight successful targeting of Russian military-industrial capacity.
Russian Air Defense: Permeable, but Recovering (Partially): While Russian air defenses were evidently unable to prevent the attacks that disrupted Moscow airports, Rosaviatsia and Domodedovo airport later reported that temporary restrictions were lifted, suggesting a degree of recovery or clearance. The effectiveness of Russian air defense remains a key vulnerability for Moscow against coordinated Ukrainian drone attacks.
Humanitarian & Social Issues
Continued Civilian Casualties in Ukraine: The confirmed injuries in Bilozirka (Kherson Oblast) and Svitlovodsk (Kirovohrad Oblast) due to Russian attacks on civilian targets underscore the relentless pressure on Ukrainian civilians and the ongoing need for robust defensive measures and humanitarian aid.
Russian Domestic Initiatives: The test drive of the "Atom" electric car prototype, while not directly military, signifies Russia's continued efforts in domestic technological development amidst sanctions. The reduction in Belarusian potato imports indicates minor shifts in Russia's agricultural supply chains.
Strategic Projections
The most critical development is the confirmed operational disruption of major Moscow airports due to Ukrainian deep strikes, complementing the ongoing targeting of Russian military-industrial facilities. This indicates a multi-pronged approach to degrade Russia's war-making capacity and exert direct pressure on the Russian populace by bringing the conflict's consequences closer to home, affecting daily life and potentially impacting logistics. The sustained nature of these strikes, combined with visual evidence of impact on high-value targets, suggests an evolving and effective Ukrainian strategy.
Russia continues its offensive ground operations, particularly with KAB attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and maintains a robust information warfare posture. The continued high rate of reported Russian personnel losses suggests that despite their efforts, the cost of these operations remains substantial. The domestic Russian focus on projects like the "Atom" electric car and shifts in minor trade relations indicate efforts to maintain economic stability and autonomy. Speculation regarding a potential Trump-brokered deal with Russia and China on spheres of influence signals a potential significant geopolitical shift that could impact the conflict's trajectory.
Risk Assessment
Operational Risk (Ukraine): Moderate. The escalating deep strikes demonstrate increasing capability and pressure on Russia. However, this strategy carries inherent risks of further, potentially indiscriminate, Russian retaliation against Ukrainian civilian targets. The continued high rate of Russian ground and aerial attacks necessitates sustained vigilance and defensive capabilities.
Operational Risk (Russia): High. The sustained and increasingly effective Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, now demonstrably impacting defense production facilities (Dubna, Zelenograd) and key civilian infrastructure (Moscow airports), highlight significant vulnerabilities in Russian homeland air defense and impose tangible logistical and psychological costs. Russian claims of limited damage or successful interceptions often contradict visual evidence of impact and the clear disruption experienced.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Russia continues its robust information warfare, evidenced by ongoing claims of territorial gains and propaganda highlighting military heroism. Ukraine must continue to provide transparent and verifiable information to counter these narratives and effectively communicate the impact of its deep strikes. Russian narratives about Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian areas are also a key information warfare component.
Ethical Compliance: No new direct ethical concerns regarding military operations have emerged in this update, though ongoing monitoring of Russian propaganda related to alleged Ukrainian atrocities remains critical. The confirmed civilian casualties in Bilozirka and Svitlovodsk from Russian attacks are a direct ethical violation and humanitarian concern.
Resource Allocation Considerations
Strategic Communications (Ukraine): Urgent and robust strategic communication efforts are required to highlight the success and impact of the deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets (like "Kronstadt") and the broader pressure on Russian territory, leveraging available visual evidence and confirmed disruptions (e.g., airport closures) to counter Russian attempts to downplay damage. Simultaneously, continued clear and factual reporting on the situation in frontline regions and the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians is crucial to maintain international support and counter Russian narratives.
Intelligence Gathering (Ukraine): Prioritize immediate and detailed analysis of the impact of drone attacks on Moscow airports to assess the extent of disruption and its follow-on effects on Russian logistics and public morale. Continue to monitor Russian air defense responses and resource shifts in response to deep strikes across multiple oblasts. Detailed intelligence on the specific units and their advances in the Kharkiv border region (e.g., Stroevka) is essential to verify Russian claims and plan defensive operations.
Air Defense and Counter-UAV (Ukraine): While deep strikes are successful, the overarching Russian aerial threat remains, as evidenced by KAB attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and continued attacks causing civilian casualties. Continued emphasis on air defense and counter-UAV capabilities is critical to protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
