Russian Claims of Continued Advances in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts:
Donetsk Oblast: Russian "Зона СВО" claims Russian flags in Stara Mykolaivka (Pravdovka) on the Pokrovsk direction, and asserts Russian forces have advanced over 100 sq km in the last week in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts, representing the fastest advance since December. The Russian MoD further confirms the liberation of Stara Mykolaivka, with a deputy commander from the 10th Tank Regiment detailing the challenges of the open terrain and the role of tank support.
Sumy Oblast: "Два майора" reports that marines from the 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla are using drones to target Ukrainian forces in Myropillya, which is approximately 3 km from the Russian border. DeepState also confirms Russian advances in Sumy Oblast over the last week.
Ukrainian Deep Drone Strikes on Russian Territory:
"Оперативний ЗСУ" shows video footage of the UTAC team successfully striking ground targets in Kursk Oblast using GBU-39 aerial bombs, indicating continued Ukrainian cross-border deep strike capabilities with precision munitions.
Ukrainian Efforts to Combat Fraudulent Schemes:
The Office of the Prosecutor General announced the dismantling of an organized criminal group that defrauded 21 citizens of 15 million UAH (approx. $400,000 USD) by soliciting fake investments in diesel fuel delivery from Europe to Ukraine. Two of the three arrested individuals are Belarusian nationals. This highlights Ukraine's continued efforts to combat financial crime and internal vulnerabilities.
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Operations:
STERNENKO reports that the GUR (Defense Intelligence of Ukraine) "Wings" unit successfully shot down 3 daytime and 1 nighttime Supercam reconnaissance drones. This demonstrates continued Ukrainian effectiveness in countering Russian aerial reconnaissance.
Russian Aerial Activity in Ukraine:
Colonelcassad provides an updated animated map of Russian strikes on Ukraine from May 26-27, detailing explosions in Novomoskovsk (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Voznesensk (Mykolaiv Oblast), Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pokrovsky district (Donbas), primarily attributed to "Geran/Gerbera" drones. A separate explosion was reported in Sumy Oblast due to UMPK (Unified Modular Planning Kit) strikes.
Ukrainian Internal Social Tensions and Mobilization:
"Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" references a widely circulated video from the previous day showing "several men slapping and kicking TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) officers" in Cherkasy, followed by the outcome of this confrontation. This highlights the ongoing and at times contentious nature of mobilization efforts and public resistance within Ukraine.
Russian Electronic Reconnaissance Near Ukraine:
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a Russian Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft with a side-looking radar was detected in the skies over Belarus, possibly conducting reconnaissance of Ukrainian air defense systems in western Ukraine. This could be a signal of a potential future missile strike in that region.
Ukrainian Development of AI-Powered Anti-Drone Turret:
"Два майора" reports on the new Ukrainian "Sky Sentinel" automated turret with AI control, designed to combat "Geran" drones. It is equipped with an M2 Browning heavy machine gun and sensors for 24/7 sky observation, with a claimed ability to intercept targets moving up to 800 km/h and a range of 1500 meters. Developers claim it has been tested in polygons and real combat. The cost is estimated at $150,000 per unit, with 10-30 units needed per city. The report questions its effectiveness against "Geran" drones flying above 1500 meters.
Russian-Taliban Security Talks:
TASS and ASTRA report that a Taliban delegation has arrived in Moscow for a security meeting, marking the first time representatives of Afghanistan's new leadership are participating in such a meeting. This signifies Russia's continued diplomatic engagement with the Taliban.
Ukrainian Infrastructure Reconstruction and Education in Kryvyi Rih:
Oleksandr Vilkul reports on the ongoing reconstruction and opening of mini-kindergartens in Kryvyi Rih, with six already operational in gymnasiums and two more planned, as well as two pedagogical support centers. This initiative provides flexible childcare for working parents and aims to ensure almost full coverage of preschool education needs by the end of the year, including the construction of three underground schools with children's departments. This highlights Ukrainian efforts to restore essential services and provide safe education amidst the conflict.
US Diplomatic Initiative and Peace Talks:
Keith Kellogg, former Special Representative for Ukraine under Trump, stated on Fox News that the US has received Ukraine's 22-point list of conditions for a peace agreement and is awaiting Russia's memorandum of terms. He suggested a potential meeting in Geneva with Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin. While he condemned Russia as a violator of the 1977 Geneva Convention, he also balanced the narrative by stating both sides are losing soldiers and suffering from the war, potentially signaling a more balanced US approach to mediation. Tsaplienko notes Kellogg appeared exhausted.
Chechen "Akhmat Tower" Project:
Alex Parker Returns reports on the finalized details of the "Akhmat Tower" skyscraper project in Grozny, Chechnya, which will be 435 meters (102 floors) high, making it taller than any current skyscraper in Moscow. The Chechen government has signed a funding agreement for 2.5 billion rubles. This highlights internal Russian development projects, particularly in Chechnya, potentially aimed at showcasing prosperity and loyalty.
Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics
Donetsk Oblast:
Pokrovsk Direction: Russian "Зона СВО" claims that Russian flags are now in Stara Mykolaivka (Pravdovka) on the Pokrovsk direction. The Russian MoD further confirms the liberation of Stara Mykolaivka. A deputy commander from the 10th Tank Regiment states the area was difficult to take due to open terrain and Ukrainian FPV drones, and that their work is now moving to the "next settlement." DeepState confirms Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast in the last week, totaling over 100 sq km across three oblasts.
Kharkiv Oblast: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports Russian forces have advanced 120 meters into Vovchansk and cleared 8 houses after discovering and striking a Ukrainian UAV control point in a private house, which was allegedly used for "terrorist attacks" on Shebekino. DeepState confirms Russian advances in Kharkiv Oblast over the last week, totaling over 100 sq km across three oblasts.
Sumy Oblast:
"Два майора" reports that marines from the 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla are using drones to target Ukrainian forces in Myropillya, which is approximately 3 km from the Russian border. DeepState also confirms Russian advances in Sumy Oblast over the last week, totaling over 100 sq km across three oblasts. Colonelcassad reports an explosion in Sumy Oblast due to UMPK strikes.
Kherson Oblast:
"Два майора" reports that the 61st Marine Brigade is actively destroying Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs ("Leleka") with FPV-UAVs on the Kherson direction, emphasizing that this work saves lives by disrupting Ukrainian reconnaissance of the left bank.
Kursk Oblast (Russia):
"Оперативний ЗСУ" shows video footage of the UTAC team successfully striking ground targets in Kursk Oblast using GBU-39 aerial bombs, indicating continued Ukrainian cross-border deep strike capabilities with precision munitions.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia):
AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) held a meeting with Marat Khusnullin (Deputy Prime Minister of Russia) to discuss the current situation in the region, noting its proximity to the contact line and the need for support. They discussed housing restoration, social and transport infrastructure, and compensation payments, following a presidential directive for comprehensive restoration of border regions after a visit to Kursk Oblast. This indicates a focus on supporting and rebuilding Russian border regions affected by Ukrainian cross-border activity.
Aerial & Naval Activity
Ukrainian Air Defense & Drone Activity:
STERNENKO reports that the GUR "Wings" unit successfully shot down 3 daytime and 1 nighttime Supercam reconnaissance drones.
"Два майора" reports on the new Ukrainian "Sky Sentinel" automated turret with AI control, designed to combat "Geran" drones, equipped with an M2 Browning heavy machine gun and sensors, with a claimed ability to intercept targets moving up to 800 km/h and a range of 1500 meters. The report questions its effectiveness against "Geran" drones flying above 1500 meters.
Russian Air Activity in Ukraine:
Colonelcassad provides an updated animated map of Russian strikes on Ukraine from May 26-27, detailing explosions in Novomoskovsk (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Voznesensk (Mykolaiv Oblast), Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pokrovsky district (Donbas), primarily attributed to "Geran/Gerbera" drones. A separate explosion was reported in Sumy Oblast due to UMPK (Unified Modular Planning Kit) strikes.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a Russian Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft with a side-looking radar was detected in the skies over Belarus, possibly conducting reconnaissance of Ukrainian air defense systems in western Ukraine, potentially signaling a future missile strike.
Fighterbomber shared a photo of a Russian Il-20M aircraft.
Russian Counter-Drone Operations:
"Два майора" reports that the 61st Marine Brigade is actively destroying Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs ("Leleka") with FPV-UAVs on the Kherson direction.
Colonelcassad published video footage showing another "Baba Yaga" heavy drone destroyed in the sky over Ukrainian territory in Sumy Oblast.
Naval Activity:
Kotsnews reports that the Baltic Fleet has begun planned exercises involving over 20 warships, boats, and support vessels, along with support from the Northern Fleet, Aerospace Forces, Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts. The exercises focus on anti-submarine warfare, defense against uncrewed surface vessels, and artillery drills against sea and air targets. This is framed as a timely response to "crazed Baltic states" and NATO "piracy" in the Baltic region, referencing a past Lithuanian attempt to seize a tanker.
MoD Russia confirmed a Pacific Fleet detachment (corvettes Rezky and Aldar Tsydenzhapov) completed its stay in Malaysia, participating in the LIMA 2025 Exhibition and Naval Parade.
"Два майора" shared a report from Rybar about DARPA's "Pulling Guard" program, aiming to use semi-autonomous unmanned observation/escort systems (USVs and UAVs) with AI-powered detection and missile armament to protect unarmed cargo ships from threats like USVs. The report notes DARPA views this as a future business service for providing secure escort, and "Два майора" expresses hope that Russian Navy leadership is considering similar programs.
The Ukrainian Naval Forces (ВМС ЗСУ) reported that no Russian missile carriers were detected in either the Black or Azov Seas this morning.
US Strategic Bomber Activity:
TASS reports that Keith Kellogg, former Special Representative for Ukraine under Trump, stated on Fox News that the US has received Ukraine's conditions for peace and is awaiting Russia's terms. He suggested a potential meeting in Geneva with Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin.
Humanitarian & Social Issues
Ukrainian Economic Support:
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv ODA, reports that Kharkiv Oblast is a leader in microgrants under the "Own Business" program, with 46 winners and a total of 20.2 million UAH in grant support. This aims to support business and create 88 new jobs in the region.
Russian Internal Issues:
TASS reports that Putin promised to shake the hand of Ivan Yerkhov, a blind winner of the "Inclusion" national award, who became the first person with acquired blindness to climb Elbrus. This highlights a human interest story and efforts to showcase social inclusion.
Maria Zakharova (Russian Foreign Ministry) satirically commented on European leaders' negotiating positions, stating they can only sit "under the table" during peace talks on Ukraine. This is part of Russia's information warfare to project dominance.
Alex Parker Returns contrasts Russian military equipment donated to Libya (Tigers, Spartaks) with older models (motolyga, bukhanka, zhiguli) allegedly used in the SVO zone, implying a disparity in resource allocation.
ASTRA reports that Vitaliy Hura, the Russian-appointed "head" of Nova Kakhovka, was dismissed for "unworthy behavior" after a vulgar video of him preparing a May 9th greeting surfaced. This highlights internal issues and accountability within occupied administrations.
"МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports that 500 servicemen from Buryatia were sent to the "SVO zone," with a volunteer organization later clarifying they were sent to Kursk Oblast. The post satirically comments on the dangerous reality of service in Kursk Oblast. This highlights Russia's ongoing mobilization efforts and attempts to control narratives around troop deployments.
Russian Duma Deputy Sergey Kolunov stated that the period of hot water shutdowns in summer can be reduced to a week, but cannot be completely canceled. This is a domestic issue but reflects on the state of Russian infrastructure and public services.
Police in Khabarovsk Krai initiated a criminal case concerning illegal storage of over 300 grams of marijuana by a 57-year-old resident of Ommi village. This is a routine law enforcement activity but reflects on the ongoing challenges of internal security and crime within Russia.
TASS reports that a Taliban delegation arrived in Moscow for a security meeting, marking their first participation.
Ukrainian Infrastructure Reconstruction and Education in Kryvyi Rih:
Oleksandr Vilkul reports on the ongoing reconstruction and opening of mini-kindergartens in Kryvyi Rih, with six already operational in gymnasiums and two more planned, as well as two pedagogical support centers. This initiative aims to ensure almost full coverage of preschool education needs by the end of the year, including the construction of three underground schools with children's departments.
Strategic Projections
The strategic landscape remains defined by Russia's relentless offensive in Donetsk Oblast, with new significant claimed advances on the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions, including the claimed final liberation of Stara Mykolaivka (Pravdovka). The DeepState confirmation of over 100 sq km of Russian advances across three oblasts in the last week signals a sustained offensive tempo and a critical threat of territorial loss. The concentration of over 50,000 Russian troops near the Kharkiv Oblast border remains a critical and imminent threat, indicating a potential large-scale offensive towards Kharkiv and Sumy, aligned with previous intelligence. The reported use of UMPK strikes in Sumy Oblast further indicates Russian efforts to expand their "sanitary zone" or soften targets for future ground operations. The Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft over Belarus is a clear strategic indicator of potential future Russian missile strikes in western Ukraine, necessitating heightened air defense readiness. The Ukrainian development of the "Sky Sentinel" AI-powered anti-drone turret signifies a key strategic adaptation to counter Russian drone tactics, potentially altering the dynamics of urban air defense. The Russian Baltic Fleet exercises underscore a broader strategic posture focused on new threats (USVs) and regional dominance, potentially escalating tensions in the Baltic region. The DARPA "Pulling Guard" program highlights a significant forward-looking strategic shift in maritime security, with potential commercialization of defense technologies and a global leadership claim by the US. The Ukrainian Naval Forces' report of no Russian missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas this morning suggests a temporary reduction in immediate naval missile threat from these platforms, which could influence Ukrainian operational planning. The Taliban delegation's visit to Moscow for security talks indicates Russia's continued diplomatic engagement with non-Western actors, potentially impacting regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. The Chechen "Akhmat Tower" project represents a domestic strategic initiative aimed at projecting regional development and loyalty within Russia.
Risk Assessment
Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. The claimed Russian ground advances on the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions, including the claimed liberation of Stara Mykolaivka, pose a persistent threat of territorial loss and high attrition. The DeepState confirmation of over 100 sq km of Russian advances in the last week across three oblasts signifies a critical and accelerating operational risk for Ukrainian defensive lines. The concentration of over 50,000 Russian troops near the Kharkiv Oblast border presents an immediate and critical operational risk of a large-scale offensive towards Kharkiv and Sumy, requiring robust defensive preparations. The detection of a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over Belarus indicates an elevated operational risk for potential future missile strikes in western Ukraine, necessitating high readiness for air defense assets. The ongoing and potentially contentious nature of Ukrainian mobilization, including the detention of individuals for conscription, presents a risk to manpower generation and internal stability.The destruction of another "Baba Yaga" drone in Sumy Oblast by Russian forces suggests an ongoing operational risk for Ukrainian heavy drone capabilities and highlights successful Russian counter-drone tactics in the region.
Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate. Ukrainian deep drone strikes, as evidenced by the GBU-39 strikes in Kursk Oblast, continue to pose a significant risk to Russian border regions and military targets, demonstrating Ukraine's persistent ability to strike across the border. The necessity for widespread airspace restrictions in Moscow due to drone activity highlights the direct disruption caused to civilian life and transportation. The claimed development of the "Sky Sentinel" AI-powered anti-drone turret by Ukraine suggests an evolving threat to Russian aerial assets, potentially challenging current Russian counter-drone strategies. The Baltic Fleet exercises, while demonstrating readiness, also entail inherent operational risks from potential incidents or miscalculations. The DARPA "Pulling Guard" program presents a long-term operational risk to Russian naval operations by potentially enhancing the security of adversary shipping and introducing new naval warfare concepts. The Ukrainian Naval Forces' report of no Russian missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas suggests a temporary reduction in immediate missile threat, but also implies these assets are either repositioning or undergoing resupply, which could temporarily reduce their operational readiness.The initiation of a criminal case regarding illegal narcotics storage in Khabarovsk Krai reflects ongoing internal security challenges, though minor, that could cumulatively divert resources.
Humanitarian Risk: High. The ongoing large-scale Russian aerial bombardments, including the UMPK strikes in Sumy Oblast, continue to inflict civilian casualties and damage to residential areas and critical infrastructure across Ukraine. The widespread damage and casualties in Ukrainian cities underscore the severe and ongoing humanitarian cost of the conflict. The ongoing and potentially contentious nature of Ukrainian mobilization, including the detention of individuals for conscription, raises humanitarian concerns regarding civil liberties and individual rights.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Both sides continue to engage in active information warfare. Russia's attempts to demoralize Ukraine by ridiculing cultural practices, the attempt to discredit Ukrainian units with deepfakes, and the promotion of military service for financial gain are significant. Russia's formal statement on creating a "sanitary zone" and discrediting Ukrainian recruitment efforts are new fronts in this warfare. Maria Zakharova's satirical comments on European leaders and Alex Parker Returns' comparison of military equipment highlight Russia's efforts to project dominance and sow disunity. The dismissal of Vitaliy Hura, the Russian-appointed "head" of Nova Kakhovka, due to a vulgar video, presents an information warfare vulnerability for Russia regarding governance in occupied territories. The Buryatia troop deployment narrative and its "clarification" by volunteers highlight Russia's attempts to control internal narratives around mobilization and casualties. The Ukrainian video showing a TCC vehicle being attacked and the subsequent discussion highlight significant information warfare material regarding mobilization challenges and public resistance in Ukraine. The German Foreign Minister's direct statement on Russia's unwillingness to seek peace serves as a strong counter-narrative to any Russian peace proposals. Colonelcassad's video on Ukrainian mobilization efforts as a "hunt" represents a key information warfare tactic aimed at undermining Ukrainian internal cohesion and international support for conscription. Colonelcassad's video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone in Sumy Oblast can be used by Russia to highlight their counter-drone successes and capabilities.Badra Gunba's statement about expanding air routes from Russia to Abkhazia, made at the Caucasian Investment Forum, is a soft power information warfare tactic by Russia aimed at projecting stability and economic integration with its allies.The information from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" with greetings and no substantive content is likely a morale-boosting or presence-maintaining information operation by a Russian military blogger.The details of the "Akhmat Tower" project can be used in information warfare by Russia to project power, wealth, and internal development, contrasting with Western narratives of economic stagnation.
Economic Impact: Moderate. The reported significant investment in the North Caucasus, with a high proportion of private funds and the doubling of investment agreements at the Caucasian Investment Forum, indicates a degree of economic stability and growth in certain Russian regions despite the broader conflict. The expressed interest of Middle Eastern investors in the North Caucasus suggests further potential for economic growth and diversification for Russia. This could contribute to Russia's long-term economic resilience. The Duma Deputy's statement on hot water shutdowns in Russia, though a domestic issue, highlights ongoing infrastructure challenges that could impact economic efficiency and public morale.The news of Volvo laying off 3,000 employees reflects broader economic instability and challenges in the global automotive industry, which could indirectly impact trade and investment dynamics relevant to the conflict.
Political Fragmentation Risk (West): Moderate. The contradictory statements from German Chancellor Merz and Vice-Chancellor Klingbeil regarding long-range weapons policy for Ukraine highlight internal disagreements within the German government and potentially within NATO, which could be exploited by Russia to sow disunity. The exit of a pro-Russian politician from active politics in Romania is a minor positive for Western influence but does not significantly offset the broader risk of fragmentation. The German Foreign Minister's unified statement on Russian aggression and continued support for Ukraine actively mitigates previous fragmentation risks by presenting a consistent and strong allied front.
Ethical Compliance: Severe. The widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian strikes, including the UMPK strike in Sumy Oblast, are grave concerns for international law and human rights, demanding sustained investigation and accountability efforts. The dismissal of Vitaliy Hura due to "unworthy behavior" while serving as a Russian-appointed official in occupied territory highlights the ethical challenges of governance in such areas. The ongoing and potentially contentious nature of Ukrainian mobilization, including the detention of individuals for conscription, raises ethical concerns regarding civil liberties and individual rights, necessitating careful oversight to ensure compliance with human rights standards.
Resource Allocation Considerations
Air Defense & EW Systems (Ukraine): Prioritize immediate acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting modernized ballistic missiles (if confirmed) and large-scale drone attacks, particularly for urban centers and critical military installations. Invest heavily in EW systems and kinetic counter-drone solutions. Develop and deploy the "Sky Sentinel" turret with rapid prototyping and mass production, prioritizing its deployment to defend against "Geran" drones, but also assessing its effectiveness against higher-flying targets.
Personnel Protection & OPSEC (Ukraine): Implement urgent and robust OPSEC measures for all military training grounds and troop concentrations, including enhanced camouflage, dispersion, and relocation protocols, to mitigate the risk of precision strikes (like the reported UMPK strike in Sumy). Prioritize force protection for all personnel, including anti-drone measures. Address and mitigate any factors contributing to active resistance against mobilization, potentially re-evaluating recruitment strategies and incentives to ensure sustained force generation while upholding human rights.
Deep Strike Capabilities (Ukraine): Continue investment in and deployment of long-range drones for deep strikes against Russian military infrastructure and logistical hubs, including airfields, command centers, and industrial facilities within Russian territory (like Kursk Oblast, and potentially the Azot chemical plant and Energiya plant), to disrupt their war effort and alleviate pressure on the front. Prioritize targeting industrial facilities in deep Russia to impact military production and critical infrastructure.
Ground Forces Reinforcement (Ukraine): Allocate additional manpower, equipment, and defensive fortifications to areas under intense Russian pressure in Donetsk Oblast, particularly the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions, to counter Russian advances and prevent encirclement or logistical cutoffs. Reinforce Kupyansk and other heavily shelled urban centers with more robust defenses and resources for civilian protection and infrastructure repair. Prepare for potential Russian-Belarusian military exercises by strengthening northern border defenses if deemed necessary. Prioritize defense against Russian advances in Sumy Oblast, particularly Myropillya, to counter the "sanitary zone" expansion.Allocate resources to counter Russian advances into Vovchansk and clear previously lost areas. **Reinforce Ukrainian border defenses in Sumy Oblast to counter Russian consolidation and prevent further
