Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus

Major Updates

• Prisoner Exchange (Confirmed Conclusion): The "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange has officially concluded with the return of 303 additional Ukrainian defenders (Army, National Guard, Border Guard, State Special Transport Service personnel), including 70 Mariupol defenders. This brings the total number of Ukrainians returned across the three stages of the exchange to 1000 for 1000 (390 on May 21, 307 on May 22, and 303 on May 25). The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War confirms medical, psychological, and financial support for the liberated individuals, and reiterates commitment to returning all remaining captives. TASS also published footage of Russian servicemen returning from captivity, displaying Russian, Soviet, and Russian Imperial flags, indicating their focus on propaganda. Russian MoD confirmed the return of 303 Russian servicemen and 303 AFU POWs, stating the agreements reached in Istanbul on May 16 were fully implemented (880 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians returned over three days). Ukrainian servicemen released from captivity were shown receiving chocolate, highlighting the conditions of their detention.
• Widespread Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage (Ukraine):
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: An overnight Russian cruise missile strike resulted in 3 child fatalities (ages 8, 12, 17) from one family (Roman, Tamara, Stanislav) and 12 injured (including 1 child), with dozens of residential buildings and outbuildings damaged or destroyed. Their parents were hospitalized, with the mother in serious condition.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupiansk): A Russian FAB-500 strike on a residential building in Kupiansk killed two women (85 and 56 years old) and injured three others (60, 75, and 68 years old).
  • Overall Ukraine: Russian attacks impacted 13 regions of Ukraine, damaging over 80 residential buildings and causing 27 fires. The Office of the Prosecutor General initiated criminal proceedings for war crimes following a combined Russian attack on Kyiv Oblast (May 24, 2025), which resulted in 4 fatalities (all adults) and 23 injuries (including 6 children), with significant damage to residential buildings. Colonelcassad provided an extensive chronological list of reported Russian strikes across various Ukrainian regions on May 25, 2025, using "Geran/Gerbera" drones, Iskander-M, Kh-69, and Kalibr missiles, indicating a broad and sustained campaign of aerial bombardment. A video showed a Shahed drone impact near a bomb shelter in Kyiv. Russian MoD stated that all targets were achieved in the overnight combined strike against Ukraine's military-industrial complex, radio-electronic, and satellite communication centers, which resulted in at least 12 fatalities and over 60 injuries.
• Russian Ground Advances (Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction):
  • Druzhkovskoye Direction ("Kalinovka Pocket"): Russian "Yug" Group units are actively "liquidating the Kalinovka Pocket" on the Druzhkovskoye direction. They claim to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks north of Romanovka and continue advancing along the highway towards Aleksandro-Kalinovo and further east towards Katerynivka. Fighting continues in Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ihnativka. Russian forces have reached the northwestern outskirts of Zorya-Oleksiyivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense and "Two Majors" officially confirm the liberation of Romanovka in the DPR (Druzhkovskoye direction).
  • Konstantinovka Direction: Russian forces continue to push the enemy out from Malinovka to Nova Poltavka. North of Malinovka, Ukrainian forces have strong fortifications. Russian forces are working on targets south of Popovy Yar, clearing forest belts and dugouts. Battles are ongoing for forest belts near Novoolenovka, where Ukrainian forces are fortified. Offensive actions are also reported towards Zarya and Ignatovka.
  • Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction: Russian forces, after consolidating in Novonikolaevka, are fighting on its eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces, supported by Bradley IFVs, counterattacked south of Novonikolaevka, attempting to cut off Russian units. Russian artillery, drone operators, and mortar crews are actively engaging counterattacking Ukrainian forces. Russian advances are also reported towards Muravka. In Novosergeevka, Russian forces are consolidating on the eastern edge, with the western part under Ukrainian control. Kotlino remains unchanged. On the right flank, Russian forces have "practically cleared" Zverevo and reached the southern part of Leontovichi, actively engaging Ukrainian forces. The section near Mirolyubovka remains unchanged due to high Ukrainian drone activity. "Archangel Spetsnaz" reports that after the liberation of Troitskoye and Bogdanovka on the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are close to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, with Orekhovo being the last major stronghold. They describe heavy battles with up to two Ukrainian battalions, extensive FPV drone use (up to 500 per day by Ukraine), and successful breakthroughs by the 80th Tank Regiment with fire support.
• General Staff Reports Increased Combat Engagements (Ukraine): The Ukrainian General Staff reports extensive combat engagements across multiple axes:
  • Kharkiv: Clashes near Vovchansk, Stroivka, Kutkivka, and Vovchanski Khutory.
  • Kupyansk: Clashes near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
  • Lyman: Clashes near Kopanky, Lypove, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske, Novomykhaylivka, and towards Karpivka, Hryhorivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka.
  • Siversk: Clashes near Bilohorivka, Vyyimka, and Pereyizne.
  • Kramatorsk: Clashes west of Andriyivka and towards Predtechyne and Bila Hora.
  • Toretsk: Clashes near Druzhba, Dyliyivka, Krymske, Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Petrivka and towards Pleschyyivka and Yablunivka.
  • Pokrovsk: Clashes near Zorya, Nova Poltavka, Myrolubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Malynivka, Sukhyy Yar, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Troyitske, Dachenske, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, Novoukrayinka, Oleksiyivka, and Andriyivka.
  • Novopavlivka: Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Bahatyr, Odradne, Shevchenko, Vesele, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Zelene Pole, Novopil.
  • Orikhiv: Clashes near Stepove, Mali Scherbaky and towards Novoandriyivka.
  • Kursk (Russia): Ukrainian forces repelled 39 Russian army assaults.
• Russian Claims of New Territorial Gains (Sumy Oblast): Poddubny claims the liberation of Maryino and Loknya in Sumy Oblast by the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet ("Sever" Group). They also report successes in the Vovchansk area of Kharkiv Oblast. This reinforces Russia's stated goal of creating a "buffer zone" along the border. "Z Committee" claims Russian forces have established control over Bilovody in Sumy Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense published video of 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade FPV drones destroying Ukrainian shelters and combat equipment in Sumy Oblast, and fiber-optic controlled UAVs destroying an 82-mm mortar.
• Russian Military Crowdfunding Acknowledged (TASS): TASS reports that Klishas, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on State Building, has publicly stated that pensions are guaranteed by the Russian constitution, likely in response to public discussions or concerns, which could be linked to the ongoing military costs and crowdfunding efforts for the armed forces.
• Russian Military Activity and UAVs:
  • Kharkiv Oblast: The 5th Guards Combined Arms Army (Vostok Group) claims the destruction of Ukrainian targets in the rear, including two UAV control points, two vehicles (pickup truck, minibus), five "Baba Yaga" drones (one by air ramming), and ten "Mavic-3" quadcopters.
  • Sumy Oblast: FPV drone crews are actively working to destroy Ukrainian shelters and combat equipment.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian UAV operators of the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) struck a Ukrainian stronghold, eliminating personnel and an AGS crew on the Polohy direction. A video from "Slippery Caprice" shows a Ukrainian armored vehicle retreating from a position near Kamenske-Stepove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) hitting a mine laid by Russian drones and burning.
  • Mihalovo Airbase Attack: Ukrainian UAVs reportedly attacked the Russian Mihalovo airbase, which houses the remaining Antonov An-22 aircraft fleet in Russia. The result of the attack is unknown.
• Ukrainian Cyber Defense Day: May 25th is officially the Day of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, emphasizing the critical role of cyber defense. Ukraine also launched a course on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) at the SBU National Academy with EU support, indicating a push to enhance intelligence capabilities.
• Domestic Russian Incident (Moscow): A mining farm in a residential complex in Moscow led to residents overpaying over 4 million rubles for utilities in six months, highlighting a local economic issue.
• Russian Claims on Strategic Strikes: The Russian Ministry of Defense officially states that all targets were achieved in the overnight combined strike against Ukraine's military-industrial complex, radio-electronic, and satellite communication centers, which resulted in at least 12 fatalities and over 60 injuries.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes in Russia: STERNENKO published a video of Ukrainian "Krila Do Pekla" drones destroying a Russian Tigr/VPK-Ural armored vehicle, an artillery gun, and an ammunition truck in Kursk Oblast. ASTRA reports a fire at the "Energiya" plant and "Kolos Agro" elevator in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, after a UAV attack on May 23, with 9 workers injured. The plant produces components for defense.
  • Nikolsky Cathedral Strike: A Ukrainian drone attacked the Nikolsky Cathedral in Epifan, Tula Oblast, hitting the dome and causing a fire. The dome was burned, but the cross remained intact. Russian sources labeled this as an attack by "Ukrainian Satanists."
• Ukrainian Special Operations: GUR (Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate) soldiers destroyed a Russian military train with fuel in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on May 24, on the Verkhniy Tokmak-Molochansk-Fedorivka section, destroying at least three fuel tanks.
• Putin's Helicopter Allegedly in "Epicenter" of Drone Attack: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and ASTRA report that a Russian PVO division commander claimed Putin's helicopter was "actually in the epicenter of the attack" during a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Kursk Oblast on May 20, where 46 drones were shot down. This claim is framed as potentially a fabrication for propaganda.
• Upcoming Russian Offensive (Bild Report): Bild reports that a large Russian offensive is expected to begin in June, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The report indicates Russia is sending thousands of new soldiers and tanks to the front and has modernized its air capabilities, emphasizing Russia's learned lessons in drone warfare and their intent to use new drones to target Ukrainian logistics. This report suggests that Russia's strategic goals might expand from four to seven Ukrainian regions.
• F-16 Delivery from Netherlands: The Netherlands will send the last of its 24 promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine tomorrow, May 26. The first F-16s arrived in Ukraine in October 2024.
• China's Support to Russia: Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) Head Oleg Ivashchenko states that China is supplying powder, special chemicals, and components to Russian military-purpose enterprises, with confirmed data on 20 Russian factories. By early 2025, up to 80% of critical electronics for Russian drones are reportedly of Chinese origin.
• Polish Stance on Ukraine's NATO Membership: Polish presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski has refused to sign a declaration, proposed by an ultra-right leader, that included a promise to prevent Ukraine's entry into NATO, indicating continued Polish support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration.
• Public Registry of Child Support Debtors (Russia): A public registry of child support debtors has launched in Russia, with nearly 200,000 names already listed. This is a new legal measure, and potential restrictions (e.g., on real estate purchases, credits) are being proposed.
• Russian Recruitment Narrative: The "Union of Fathers of Russia" organization is encouraging men to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense as a way to "increase the level of family prosperity and well-being," framing military service as a financial opportunity.
• Russian Information Warfare (Deepfakes): Operational Z (Ukrainian source) highlights continued Russian mass campaigns to discredit Ukrainian units (e.g., 225th Separate Assault Regiment) through cheap social media posts, deepfakes, and TV segments. They note that while deepfakes are not yet widespread, they are expected to become so, urging viewers to critically analyze content for inconsistencies (e.g., incorrect unit names, unrealistic visuals, artificial voices).
• Russian Fighter's Propaganda: A Russian serviceman returning from captivity expressed overwhelming emotion and a desire to "kiss Russian soil," a clear propaganda piece. A different Russian fighter was shown making homemade noodles for his comrades, a morale-boosting narrative.
• Russian Military Crowdfunding: "Archangel Spetsnaz" is continuing crowdfunding efforts for Mavic drones for Russian paratroopers on the Sumy direction, indicating an ongoing need for public support for essential equipment.
• Russian Diplomatic Protest to Sweden: Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs will send a protest note to Stockholm regarding a drone attack on the Russian embassy, accusing Sweden of failing to control "ultras" and uphold Vienna Convention obligations.
• Ukrainian Mobilization Challenges (Wall Street Journal): The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine's "Contract 18-24" program for attracting young recruits has largely failed, with only about 500 new recruits since February. This has created a rift within the Ukrainian army, as older soldiers resent the 1 million Hryvnia bonus given to these "millionaire" new recruits.
• Andriy Portnov Allegations: Butusov Plus reports that the deceased former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov continues to "sue" him and calls for a "Portnov list" of judges, lawyers, and law enforcement officials connected to his alleged "mafia group," to expose and hold accountable those who worked with him.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • General Frontline: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 combat engagements on the Pokrovsky direction (6 ongoing), 20 on the Toretsk direction (18 repelled), 18 on the Novopavlivka direction (9 ongoing), and 16 on the Lyman direction (5 ongoing). This indicates high intensity and sustained Russian pressure across these axes.
  • Chasov Yar Direction: Russian T-90M "Proryv" tank crews from Ivanovo and Kostroma paratroopers continue to destroy Ukrainian strongholds and personnel.
  • Otradnoye/Komar Direction (Southern Donetsk): Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces claims the liberation of Otradnoye and continued advance towards Komar. The 5th Guards Combined Arms Army units are actively striking Ukrainian positions with artillery and FPV drones.
  • Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian 150th Motor Rifle Division advanced towards Popovy Yar, and are clearing Romanovka and Old Nikolaevka. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing. Russian forces claim to have "practically cleared" Zverevo and reached the southern part of Leontovichi. The section near Mirolyubovka remains unchanged due to high Ukrainian drone activity. "Archangel Spetsnaz" reports that after the liberation of Troitskoye and Bogdanovka, Russian forces are near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, with Orekhovo being the last major stronghold. They describe heavy fighting, extensive Ukrainian FPV drone use, and breakthroughs by the 80th Tank Regiment. Russian forces are also continuing offensive actions from Malinovka to Nova Poltavka, with strong Ukrainian fortifications north of Malinovka. Southern Popovy Yar, Zarya, and Ignatovka are also sites of ongoing offensive actions. The Russian MoD confirmed the liberation of Romanovka.
  • Druzhkovskoye Direction ("Kalinovka Pocket"): Russian "Yug" Group continues efforts to liquidate the "Kalinovka Pocket," repelling Ukrainian counterattacks and advancing along the Aleksandro-Kalinovo highway. Battles continue in Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ihnativka, with Russian forces reaching the northwestern outskirts of Zorya-Oleksiyivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense and "Two Majors" officially confirm the liberation of Romanovka in the DPR (Druzhkovskoye direction).
  • Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction: Russian forces are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Novonikolaevka after consolidating. Ukrainian forces, supported by Bradley IFVs, counterattacked south of Novonikolaevka, attempting to cut off Russian units, with Russian artillery and drones engaging. Russian advances are also reported towards Muravka. In Novosergeevka, Russian forces are consolidating on the eastern edge, with the western part under Ukrainian control. Kotlino remains unchanged. On the right flank, Russian forces have "practically cleared" Zverevo and reached the southern part of Leontovichi, actively engaging Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian MoD Report: Russian MoD reported that "Yug" Group of Forces liberated Romanovka (DPR) and hit Ukrainian forces near Pleshcheyevka, Seversk, Serebryanka, Konstantinovka, Shevchenko, and Vyemka (DPR).
• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas, and 5 attacks in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove on the Kupiansk direction (2 ongoing). A Russian FAB-500 strike on a residential building in Kupiansk resulted in 2 fatalities and 3 injuries. Poddubny claims Russian "Sever" Group has successes in the Vovchansk area. Russian MoD reported that "Sever" Group of Forces inflicted losses on Ukrainian formations near Granov, Komissarovo, Veterinarnoye, Udy, Kreydyanka, and Berezniki (Kharkov region), resulting in up to 220 Ukrainian troops, 2 tanks, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 11 motor vehicles, 8 field artillery guns, 1 electronic warfare station, and 1 ammunition depot destroyed. "Zapad" Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, defeating Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk, Olgovka, Peschanoye, Novosergeyevka, Andreyevka, Dolgenkoye, Petro-Ivanovka (Kharkov region). AFU losses amounted to up to 230 troops, 2 armored fighting vehicles (including one M113), 19 motor vehicles, and 3 artillery guns, and neutralized 1 Kvertus EW station and 3 ammunition depots.
• Sumy Oblast: Poddubny claims the liberation of Maryino and Loknya by the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade. FPV drone crews are actively destroying Ukrainian shelters and combat equipment. "Z Committee" claims Russian forces have established control over Bilovody in Sumy Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense published video of 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade FPV drones destroying Ukrainian shelters and combat equipment, and fiber-optic controlled UAVs destroying an 82-mm mortar. Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian army assaults repelled in Kursk region, bordering Sumy. "Two Majors" notes that the creation of a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast comes at a high cost, with equipment burning daily, indicating the intensity of the offensive.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: "Viking" detachment operators continue to destroy Ukrainian personnel hideouts. Russian UAV operators of the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group) struck a Ukrainian stronghold on the Polohy direction. GUR (Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate) soldiers destroyed a Russian military train with fuel on May 24, on the Verkhniy Tokmak-Molochansk-Fedorivka section, destroying at least three fuel tanks. A video from "Slippery Caprice" shows a Ukrainian armored vehicle retreating from a position near Kamenske-Stepove hitting a mine laid by Russian drones and burning.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian forces repelled 39 Russian army assaults. STERNENKO reports Ukrainian drones (Krila Do Pekla) destroying Russian combat vehicles (Tigr/VPK-Ural), artillery, and an ammunition truck.
• Training and Drills: The Ukrainian General Staff published footage of a "psychological obstacle course" at the 199th Training Center of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, including smoke, mud, trench crossings with explosions, crawling under a tank, paintball close combat, log carrying, pushing a broken vehicle, water crossings, rope traversal, and sparring with instructors, aimed at building physical endurance and mental fortitude.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Russian Air Activity: Videos continue to show the use of UMPK (Unified Planning and Correction Module) guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian positions. Poddubny claims Russian "Sever" Group drone operators are destroying Ukrainian combat groups. Colonelcassad provided an extensive chronological list of reported Russian strikes across various Ukrainian regions on May 25, 2025, using "Geran/Gerbera" drones, Iskander-M, Kh-69, and Kalibr missiles, indicating a broad and sustained campaign of aerial bombardment.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukraine continues to develop long-range "Shahed-like" drones such as "Batyar" (800 km range, 18 kg warhead). STERNENKO reports successful Ukrainian drone operations (Krila Do Pekla) in Kursk Oblast destroying Russian military equipment.
• Russian Counter-UAV: The 5th Guards Combined Arms Army (Vostok Group) claims successful counter-drone operations, including downing a "Baba Yaga" drone by air ramming and a "Mavic-3" by rotor engagement. The Russian Ministry of Defense published video of fiber-optic controlled UAVs destroying an 82-mm mortar in Sumy Oblast. Additionally, the 36th Combined Arms Army's FPV drone operators claimed successful remote mining, destroying a jeep with a PTM mine, uncovering and destroying a "Kozak" armored vehicle, destroying a UAV control point, hitting an MT-12 gun crew, and downing two "Baba Yaga" drones by air ramming.
• Russian Claims on Strategic Strikes: The Russian Ministry of Defense officially states that all targets were achieved in the overnight combined strike against Ukraine's military-industrial complex, radio-electronic, and satellite communication centers, which resulted in at least 12 fatalities and over 60 injuries.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes in Russia: ASTRA reports a fire at the "Energiya" plant and "Kolos Agro" elevator in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, after a UAV attack on May 23, with 9 workers injured. The plant produces components for defense. STERNENKO published a video of Ukrainian "Krila Do Pekla" drones destroying a Russian Tigr/VPK-Ural armored vehicle, an artillery gun, and an ammunition truck in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian drone attacked the Nikolsky Cathedral in Epifan, Tula Oblast, hitting the dome and causing a fire, with the dome burned but the cross intact. Russia will send a protest note to Sweden on May 26 regarding a drone attack on its embassy in Stockholm.
• GUR Train Attack: GUR (Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate) soldiers destroyed a Russian military train with fuel in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on May 24, destroying at least three fuel tanks.
• Putin's Helicopter Allegedly in "Epicenter" of Drone Attack: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and ASTRA report that a Russian PVO division commander claimed Putin's helicopter was "actually in the epicenter of the attack" during a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Kursk Oblast on May 20.
• Netherlands F-16 Delivery: The Netherlands will send the last of its 24 promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine tomorrow, May 26.

Humanitarian and Social Issues

• Prisoner Exchange: The "1000 for 1000" exchange has concluded, with 303 additional Ukrainian defenders returned, bringing the total for this exchange to 1000. All liberated individuals will receive comprehensive support. TASS also published footage of Russian servicemen returning from captivity, displaying Russian, Soviet, and Russian Imperial flags, indicating their focus on propaganda. Released Ukrainian defenders released videos celebrating Kyiv Day and discarding prison uniforms. Ukrainian servicemen upon release tasted chocolate for the first time in three years, highlighting the conditions of their detention. Russian MoD confirmed the return of 303 Russian servicemen and 303 AFU POWs, stating the agreements reached in Istanbul on May 16 were fully implemented (880 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians returned over three days).
• Civilian Casualties and Damage (Ukraine):
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: 3 children killed (Roman, Tamara, Stanislav, ages 8, 12, 17, from one family), 12 injured (1 child) from cruise missile strikes. Dozens of residential buildings damaged.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupiansk): FAB-500 strike killed 2 women, injured 3 others in a residential building.
  • Widespread Impact: Russian attacks damaged over 80 residential buildings and caused 27 fires in 13 regions across Ukraine. The Office of the Prosecutor General initiated criminal proceedings for war crimes following a combined Russian attack on Kyiv Oblast (May 24, 2025), which resulted in 4 fatalities (all adults) and 23 injuries (including 6 children), with significant damage to residential buildings.
• Russian Information Warfare: Basurin o glavnom criticizes the Ukrainian custom of kneeling to greet "Cargo 200" (fallen soldiers), framing it as an act of "submission" and "slavery" imposed by authorities through threats of fines, aiming to undermine Ukrainian national dignity and morale. This is a clear attempt to use perceived cultural practices for psychological warfare. A Russian "patriot" woman who sent her husband to fight for money expressed confusion about why she was wished death after recent night missile attacks, showcasing a disconnect from the realities of the war for Ukrainian civilians and the ethical implications of profiting from conflict. Russian channels used a photo of a Ukrainian soldier praying to a "slon" (elephant) as a symbol to suggest who Ukrainians should worship, aiming to ridicule and dehumanize.
• Russian Internal Issues: A mining farm in a Moscow residential complex led to significant utility overpayments for residents, highlighting a local economic and infrastructure issue. The individual responsible for a recent shooting in Rossosh has been apprehended and will likely face a substantial sentence. A public registry of child support debtors has launched in Russia, with nearly 200,000 names already listed.
• Ukrainian Military Commemoration: May 25th is officially the Day of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine. The opening of the "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" near the Arch of Freedom in Kyiv, on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizes resistance and sacrifice.
• Russian Mobilization Efforts: The "Union of Fathers of Russia" organization is promoting military contracts as a means for men to improve family financial well-being.
• Russian Military Life Propaganda: A Russian soldier was shown making homemade noodles for his comrades, portraying a sense of camaraderie and "home comfort" at the front.
• Ukrainian Mobilization Challenges: The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine's "Contract 18-24" program has only attracted around 500 recruits, causing resentment among older soldiers who call new recruits "millionaires" due to a 1 million Hryvnia bonus.
• Andriy Portnov Allegations: A Ukrainian source claims that the deceased Andriy Portnov continues to "sue" him and calls for a "Portnov list" of individuals (judges, lawyers, law enforcement) associated with his alleged "mafia group" that "robbed and destroyed human fates and businesses."

Strategic Projections

The conclusion of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange is a significant humanitarian and diplomatic success for Ukraine, demonstrating a functional, albeit limited, channel for cooperation despite ongoing hostilities. This sets a precedent for future exchanges and provides vital relief for hundreds of families. Russian propaganda on the exchange aims to highlight their own returnees and a narrative of resilience and historical continuity.

Militarily, Russia continues its attritional offensive, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. The claimed "liquidation of the Kalinovka Pocket" and advances on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, including the official liberation of Romanovka, suggest a sustained effort to push deeper into Ukrainian territory and disrupt supply lines. The "Archangel Spetsnaz" report on the liberation of Troitskoye and Bogdanovka and the proximity to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border indicates a significant strategic thrust aiming to open a new axis. The Ukrainian General Staff's report of numerous ongoing combat engagements across multiple axes confirms the high intensity of fighting and sustained Russian pressure. The claimed liberation of Maryino, Loknya, and now Bilovody in Sumy Oblast reinforces Russia's stated intent to create a "buffer zone" along the border, aiming to reduce cross-border strikes and control contested territories. The Bild report on a potential large Russian offensive in June, targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, further supports the assessment of an expansion of Russian strategic goals beyond the currently declared four regions, likely to seven.

Ukraine continues to counter with its robust deep strike capabilities. The confirmed fire at the Lipetsk defense industry plant ("Energiya"), the destruction of a fuel train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the drone attack on Nikolsky Cathedral in Tula Oblast demonstrate the effectiveness and strategic importance of these Ukrainian operations. The development of the "Batyar" long-range drone further enhances Ukraine's ability to conduct such strikes deep within Russian territory, aiming to impose costs and disrupt Russian military-industrial capacity. The attack on Mihalovo airbase also signifies Ukraine's reach.

The widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage across Ukraine, particularly the fatalities and injuries in Zhytomyr, Kupiansk, and Kyiv Oblast, underscore the severe humanitarian cost of Russia's continued aerial bombardment. This strategy aims to deplete Ukrainian air defense resources, demoralize the population, and degrade critical infrastructure. Russia's official statement claiming all targets were achieved in these strikes, despite widespread civilian impact, further emphasizes their disregard for civilian lives.

The ongoing information warfare, as exemplified by Russia's psychological operations concerning Ukrainian cultural practices, the attempt to discredit Ukrainian units with deepfakes, and the promotion of military service for financial gain, aims to demoralize and undermine Ukrainian national identity and recruitment. Ukraine's new OSINT course signals an adaptation to modern intelligence gathering methods. The confirmed Chinese supply of military components to Russia highlights a significant challenge for international sanctions enforcement and sustains Russia's military-industrial complex. The difficulties in Ukraine's "Contract 18-24" program and the resulting internal military tensions could impact future force generation. The Polish presidential candidate's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership demonstrates continued political support despite internal pressures.

Overall, the conflict remains a high-intensity struggle on the ground and in the air, with significant humanitarian consequences. While prisoner exchanges offer a positive diplomatic and humanitarian channel, both sides remain committed to their military objectives, with Russia pushing ground advances and Ukraine leveraging deep strikes. The information environment remains highly contested, with both sides actively shaping narratives. The upcoming delivery of F-16s from the Netherlands will provide Ukraine with a much-needed boost in air capabilities.

Risk Assessment

• Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. The reported Russian ground advances on the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions, particularly the liberation of Romanovka, Troitskoye, and Bogdanovka, coupled with significant Russian pressure on multiple axes, pose a persistent threat of territorial loss and high attrition, especially threatening logistical routes. The ongoing high-intensity aerial bombardment across 13 regions and Kyiv Oblast, resulting in widespread damage and casualties (including 3 children killed in Zhytomyr), strains Ukrainian air defense resources and infrastructure. The need for constant vigilance against Russian counter-UAV operations remains critical. The intelligence about a potential large Russian offensive in June targeting additional regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk) indicates an escalating operational risk. The low success rate of the "Contract 18-24" program and the internal friction it causes could impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its fighting force.
• Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate to High. Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian defense industries (Lipetsk), logistical targets (Zaporizhzhia fuel train), and military infrastructure (Mihalovo airbase) continue to pose a significant risk to Russia's military-industrial complex and demonstrate Ukraine's persistent ability to strike deep. The drone attack on Nikolsky Cathedral, a religious site, carries a propaganda risk. The ongoing reliance on crowdfunding for specific military equipment, despite official assurances regarding pensions, suggests underlying logistical or resource allocation challenges that could impact sustained operational capability. The continued operational requirement for anti-drone measures and the loss of UAVs and control points in rear areas highlight ongoing vulnerabilities.
• Humanitarian Risk: High. The confirmed civilian fatalities and injuries (including children) in Zhytomyr, Kupiansk, and Kyiv Oblast, alongside widespread damage to residential buildings across 13 regions, underscore the severe and ongoing humanitarian cost of the conflict. This necessitates sustained efforts for civilian protection, emergency response, and infrastructure repair. Russian information warfare tactics attempting to undermine Ukrainian national dignity contribute to the psychological toll.
• Information Warfare Risk: High. Both sides continue to engage in active information warfare. Russia's attempts to demoralize Ukraine by ridiculing cultural practices, using deepfakes, and portraying military service as a financial opportunity are significant. Ukraine's successful deep strikes are met with Russian vows of retaliation, which can be leveraged for domestic morale and recruitment. The public acknowledgement of deepfakes by Ukraine signals an evolving information landscape.
• Economic & Social Stability (Ukraine): Moderate. The widespread damage to civilian infrastructure indicates continued economic strain and the need for significant reconstruction efforts. Challenges in military recruitment could impact social cohesion.
• Economic & Social Stability (Russia): Moderate. While official statements aim to reassure the public about pensions, the underlying need for military crowdfunding and localized issues like the Moscow mining farm point to ongoing economic and social pressures. The confirmed industrial strikes in Lipetsk pose an economic risk. The new child support debtors registry might add social pressure.
• Western Unity: Moderate. The JPMorgan report, while speculative, suggests a prevailing Western analytical view of a prolonged conflict that may not result in Ukraine's maximalist objectives, possibly impacting future Western support and diplomatic approaches. The China-Russia military component supply could complicate international relations.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Humanitarian Aid & Civilian Protection (Ukraine): Prioritize immediate and robust humanitarian aid, medical support, and psychological counseling for civilians in Zhytomyr, Kupiansk, Kyiv Oblast, and other affected regions, especially for families with child casualties. Allocate resources for rapid damage assessment and repair of residential buildings. Implement and reinforce advanced warning systems and accessible shelters for civilians.
• Air Defense & EW Systems (Ukraine): Continue to prioritize the acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems capable of countering cruise missiles and various drone types, especially for highly vulnerable civilian population centers and critical infrastructure.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities (Ukraine): Intensify efforts to produce and deploy long-range strike drones like "Batyar" to increase pressure on Russian military and industrial targets, potentially forcing Russia to divert resources from the front. Prioritize targeting of military logistics (e.g., fuel trains, UAV control points) and defense industrial facilities within Russia.
• Frontline Defensive Reinforcement (Ukraine): Allocate additional manpower, equipment, and defensive fortifications to areas under intense Russian pressure, particularly the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions in Donetsk Oblast, to counter Russian advances and prevent further territorial loss and logistical disruption. Maintain strong counter-offensive capabilities against Russian advances in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Counter-Information Warfare (Ukraine): Develop and actively disseminate strong, evidence-based counter-narratives against Russian propaganda, particularly regarding civilian casualties, alleged atrocities, and attempts to undermine Ukrainian national identity or military units with deepfakes. Emphasize the success of prisoner exchanges as a humanitarian achievement. Leverage OSINT capabilities to expose Russian disinformation.
• Prisoner of War Support (Ukraine): Ensure sustained and comprehensive medical, psychological, and financial support for all released Ukrainian POWs, preparing for their reintegration into society. Highlight their experiences to counter Russian propaganda.
• Logistics & Equipment (Russia/Ukraine): For Ukraine, continue to advocate for international military aid to address equipment needs, including the F-16 delivery. For Russia, the reliance on crowdfunding highlights underlying logistical challenges that Ukraine should exploit by targeting and disrupting such supply chains.
• Recruitment and Training (Ukraine): Address the challenges in recruitment programs like "Contract 18-24" by evaluating incentives and addressing internal tensions. Invest in rigorous training programs like the psychological obstacle course to enhance combat readiness and morale.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Continue to engage with international partners to secure sustained support and counter narratives that might undermine Western unity.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Civilian Casualties & Damage: Collect detailed reports and photographic evidence of all civilian fatalities and injuries, and infrastructure damage in Zhytomyr, Kupiansk, Kyiv Oblast, and other affected regions, cross-referencing with emergency services and local authorities for accuracy.
• Frontline Verification: Utilize satellite imagery, drone feeds, and human intelligence to verify Russian claims of advances on the Pokrovsk and Druzhkovskoye directions, including the stated "liquidation of the Kalinovka Pocket," the liberation of Romanovka, Troitskoye, and Bogdanovka, and control of Maryino, Loknya, and Bilovody. Document the impact of training exercises.
• POW Exchange Data: Collect and verify all official data and personal accounts related to the prisoner exchange, including demographics and health status of returned individuals, and any associated propaganda. Document observations of released Ukrainian servicemen (e.g., tasting chocolate).
• Information Warfare Artifacts: Systematically collect and analyze Russian propaganda, particularly narratives related to "kneeling" customs, alleged Ukrainian atrocities in Kursk Oblast, public statements on pensions, the claim about Putin's helicopter, and the use of deepfakes against Ukrainian units. Document narratives on military service as a financial benefit. Collect and analyze Polish political statements on NATO membership.
• Drone Capabilities: Continue gathering technical specifications and operational data on "Batyar" drone production and deployment. Document all Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, including targets and impact assessments (e.g., Lipetsk industrial plant, Kursk military vehicles, Nikolsky Cathedral in Tula). Document the attack on Mihalovo airbase.
• Domestic Russian Incidents: Document the Moscow mining farm incident, the Rossosh shooting apprehension, and the launch of the public child support debtors registry.
• OSINT Course: Document the launch and curriculum of the SBU's OSINT course.
• International Relations: Document the F-16 delivery from the Netherlands and information on China's military supply to Russia.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Data: Collect data on the "Contract 18-24" program's enrollment figures and any reports of internal tensions.
• Andriy Portnov Information: Gather information related to the "Portnov list" allegations.

Analysis and Modeling:

• Humanitarian Impact Modeling: Refine models for civilian casualty prediction and resource allocation for humanitarian response in affected areas, considering the widespread nature of recent strikes.
• Offensive Trajectory Modeling: Update predictive models for Russian offensive operations in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, incorporating reported advances and battle engagement intensity, specifically on the Pokrovsk direction towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Analyze the impact of continued Russian pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines and the potential for a large Russian offensive in June targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Prisoner Exchange Impact: Model the logistical and psychological impact of the large-scale prisoner exchange on both sides, including post-release support needs.
• Information Warfare Impact: Analyze the effectiveness of Russian information operations, particularly those related to demoralization, alleged atrocities, deepfakes, and recruitment narratives, and model effective counter-narratives.
• Economic Impact Analysis: Continue to assess the economic strains on both sides, particularly in relation to military crowdfunding and the impact of deep strikes on industrial and logistical targets within Russia. Analyze the implications of China's military supply to Russia.
• OSINT Capability Assessment: Evaluate the potential impact of the new OSINT course on Ukrainian intelligence gathering and analysis.
• Force Generation Analysis: Model the effectiveness of Ukrainian recruitment efforts, analyzing the impact of programs like "Contract 18-24" and any internal tensions.

Reporting and Visualization:

• Civilian Impact Dashboard: Create a dynamic dashboard showcasing civilian casualties (fatalities, injuries, children affected) and infrastructure damage across Ukraine, emphasizing the scale of the recent strikes, including the Zhytomyr tragedy.
• Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing Russian advances in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, highlighting areas of intense combat and Russian claimed gains, including Romanovka, Troitskoye, Bogdanovka, and Bilovody. Include potential future axes of attack based on intelligence (e.g., Bild report).
• Prisoner Exchange Progress Reports: Create clear, concise reports and infographics on the prisoner exchange, highlighting numbers, categories of personnel, and subsequent support provided.
• Information Warfare Briefs: Provide regular briefings on the evolving information warfare landscape, including analysis of Russian propaganda and recommended counter-narratives, specifically addressing deepfakes and recruitment narratives.
• Resource Allocation Dashboards: Visualize resource allocation needs for air defense, humanitarian aid, and frontline reinforcement based on risk assessments.
• Deep Strike Effectiveness Reports: Detail Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, including targets, observed damage, and strategic implications (e.g., Lipetsk, Tula, Mihalovo).
• F-16 Delivery Tracking: Provide a visual timeline of F-16 deliveries from the Netherlands and their integration into Ukrainian forces.
• China-Russia Military Supply Analysis: Present reports on the extent and impact of China's military supply to Russia.

Feedback Loop:

• Humanitarian Feedback: Establish direct feedback channels with emergency services, hospitals, and local authorities in Zhytomyr, Kupiansk, Kyiv Oblast, and other affected regions to rapidly assess needs and optimize humanitarian response.
• Frontline Feedback: Maintain constant feedback with ground units to verify Russian advances, assess attrition rates, and refine tactical responses.
• Drone Development Feedback: Direct feedback loop with "Batyar" drone developers for continuous improvement based on operational insights.
• Information Operations Feedback: Collect feedback on the effectiveness of counter-disinformation campaigns from both military and civilian sources, especially concerning deepfakes.
• POW Support Feedback: Establish immediate feedback channels with returned POWs and their support teams to assess post-captivity needs and improve rehabilitation programs.
• Recruitment Feedback: Gather feedback from military recruitment centers and newly mobilized personnel to identify challenges and improve the effectiveness of recruitment programs.
• Andriy Portnov Feedback: Collect information and feedback from individuals regarding the "Portnov list" to facilitate further investigation and accountability.