Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated)

Major Updates

• Russian Ground Operations:

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasov Yar): Russian T-90M "Proryv" tanks, operated by Ivanovo and Kostroma paratroopers, are actively destroying Ukrainian strongholds and personnel near Chasov Yar. Russian forces are continuously delivering ammunition and provisions under enemy fire. Russian military expert claims Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen under Chasov Yar, indicating extremely heavy Ukrainian losses in this key sector. Battles continue on several sections within Chasov Yar's urban area, with many recently liberated territories effectively becoming a "grey zone" due to high drone activity. Russian MoD also claims the liberation of Stupochki under Chasov Yar.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Otradnoye/Komar): Russian forces of the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Army, "Vostok" Group) claim the liberation of Otradnoye on the Andreevka direction, covering over 10 sq km and clearing approximately 200 structures. They report overcoming Ukrainian defenses and advancing towards Komar, a significant Ukrainian stronghold. This is presented as a continuation of their successful offensive after taking Bogatyr. Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian counterattacks near Otradnoye and Komar (2 with MaxxPro vehicles destroyed, 2 in infantry formation near Zelenoye Pole), advancing up to 1 km in depth and along the front. They also cleared two more forest belts east of Fedorovka (0.5 km deep, 1.5 km front) and continue clearing local resistance in northern and southern Zelenoye Pole, now controlling over 60% of the settlement. Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye were reportedly hit by "Vostok" Group UAV operators. "Voin DV" footage reportedly confirms the destruction of Ukrainian automotive equipment during the liberation of Otradnoye. Russian MoD also officially confirmed the liberation of Otradnoye, explicitly stating that the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Vostok Group of Forces liberated the settlement, advanced quickly, and cleared about 200 buildings, setting up Russian flags.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka Direction): Russian forces are developing a broad offensive on the Konstantinovka direction, acknowledged by Ukrainian military analysts. After consolidating positions in Novaya Poltavka, units of the 150th Motor Rifle Division advanced up to 2 km deep (8 sq km area) and are now attacking the outskirts of Popov Yar. They also advanced north and south of Aleksandropol (6 sq km area), assaulting the southern part of Old Nikolaevka and clearing Romanovka. Near Shevchenko Pervoye, Russian forces stormed Ukrainian strongholds and advanced over 2 km deep (12.5 sq km area) along forest belts. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing. Russian 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is crowdfunding for critical equipment such as radios, generators, satellite communication, PCs, and spectrum analyzers, totaling over 2.8 million rubles. Russian FPV drone operators claim to have disrupted Ukrainian command and control in the Konstantinovka area. Russian sources claim to have "liberated" Nova Poltavka, and that Ukrainian logistics on this direction are being "nullified," threatening a rapid collapse of urban defenses. A Russian FAB-250 with UMPK module struck a residential area in Konstantinovka, killing one 47-year-old woman and injuring three other civilians with blast trauma and lacerations. Six private households, a car, and power/gas lines were damaged. FPV-drone footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol, highlighting fratricide or misidentification.
  • Donetsk Oblast (General Staff ZSU): Russian forces launched 45 attacks on the Pokrovsky direction, with 6 ongoing. On the Toretsk direction, Russia launched 20 attacks, 18 repelled, with battles ongoing. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 18 assaults near Novopil, Zelene Pole, Vilne Pole, Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, and towards Otradne on the Novopavlivka direction, with 9 engagements ongoing. General Staff of ZSU reports 202 combat engagements over the past day across all directions, and posts photos of experienced tank crews training.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Marinka): Photos show the devastated landscape of Marinka, with views towards Donetsk and Kurakhove, indicating continued severe destruction in this long-contested area.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupiansk direction): Russian 121st regiment, 68th division ("West" Group of Forces) are targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, utilizing the "Groza Leska" fiber-optic FPV drone control system. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in the Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas. On the Kupiansk direction, 5 attacks occurred in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove, with 2 battles ongoing.
  • Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv Border Regions: Russian barrel and rocket artillery, along with FPV drone units (from "Anvar" group), are actively striking Ukrainian positions in Shostka district (Sumy Oblast) and Chuhuiv district (Kharkiv Oblast), and in the border region of Chernihiv Oblast. These operations aim to form a "buffer zone" and prevent Ukrainian advances towards the state border. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is reportedly destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Sumy-Kursk border region, pushing them deeper into their territory. Russian forces claim liberation of Maryino and ongoing battles for Belovody, and marine infantry "burning out" forest belts near Myropillya. WarGonzo reports that Ukrainian forces are continuously attempting to break through near Tyotkino to maintain tension, possibly as a feint for a larger breakthrough. Russian forces claim to have liberated Loknya in Sumy Oblast, stating this will determine the fate of the logistics center in Yunakivka, where battles are ongoing. RBC-Ukraine refutes claims of Russian entry into Yunakivka. Russian MoD also officially confirmed the liberation of Loknya in Sumy Oblast.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: "Viking" detachment operators are destroying detected Ukrainian personnel hideouts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports 403 enemy attacks on 12 settlements in the region, including 4 air strikes, 243 FPV drone attacks, 5 MLRS shellings, and 151 artillery strikes. Two residents of Polohiv district were injured, and 11 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and an enterprise were received. Ukrainian brigades (141st Infantry, 31st Mechanized, 65th Mechanized, 110th Mechanized) are actively using FPV drones against Russian positions, destroying personnel and equipment. Russian MLRS crews from the "Vostok" Group struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment area, confirming a concentration of enemy manpower and hardware.
  • Krasnolimansky Direction: Torso is a grey zone with both sides attempting to enter; no reported advancement. Fighting for Rybkhoz and the northern part of the village. Russian forces control several forest belts near Kolodezey but haven't consolidated in the village. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian forces advancing near Lipovoye and Redkodub (Krasnolimansky direction), destroying Ukrainian UAVs, and conducting FPV drone strikes in the area. Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 attacks in the Lyman direction, with 5 ongoing.
  • South Donetsk Direction (Volnoye Pole): Russian Vostok Group's 5th Combined Arms Army assault detachment successfully captured a well-fortified Ukrainian stronghold near Volnoye Pole. Sniper teams of the 36th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) are actively operating on the Shakhtyorsk direction, implying ongoing engagement with Ukrainian personnel. A Russian serviceman ("Sapogi") from the "Vostok" Group of Forces confirms direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole, including assaulting Ukrainian fortifications.
  • Kursk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian assault actions against Ukrainian positions, with 4 ongoing. Russia conducted 6 air strikes, dropping 10 guided bombs, and 239 artillery shellings, including 12 from MLRS. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for Starlink, drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for units on the Kursk front due to enemy activation near Tyotkino. A Ukrainian volunteer from Lviv Oblast was heavily wounded by an enemy shell in Kursk Oblast. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is engaged in battles near Tyotkino, repelling Ukrainian attacks. Russian Investigative Committee claims 16 civilians, including two children (13 and 16 years old), were injured in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from a Ukrainian HIMARS rocket strike on May 22, with damage to residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, and over 20 civilian cars. This is classified as a terrorist act by Russia. Positional battles reported in Sudzha, with Russian forces advancing 500 meters in Gornal and occupying new positions in residential areas. Butusov Plus shares video of Ukrainian forces successfully ambushing and destroying a Russian unit on the Kursk direction.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 out of 3 attacks. Battle near Kurdyumivka and towards Bila Hora is ongoing.
  • Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces attempted to advance 5 times near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka, but were repelled. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports that on the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Stepove and Novodanylivka.
  • Dnipro Direction: Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to attack Ukrainian fortifications. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports that on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces conducted 2 unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions near the Antonivka bridges.
  • Radkovka (Kharkov region): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces. Russian military bloggers assert the importance of Radkovka's liberation due to its proximity to the road to Kupiansk, which will complicate Ukrainian supply efforts for the Kupiansk garrison.
  • Kherson Oblast: FPV drone operators from the "Convoy E.I.V." volunteer corps brigade destroyed a Turkish-made Kirpi armored vehicle in Kherson Oblast. Russian "Dnepr" Group UAV operators (callsign "Yasen") reportedly struck a Ukrainian strongpoint in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian source Tsaplienko posts video of destruction of a Russian truck deep in Kherson Oblast rear areas, commenting on Russian sources' reactions. Russian units are training to deploy pontoon bridges in Kherson Oblast, which Ukrainian sources view as a potential precursor to river crossing attempts.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Dyliyivka): Russian "South" Group drone operators and artillery claimed destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka, stating 8 Ukrainian servicemen, a food depot, and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
  • Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian forces (ISW maps) are reported to have advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces (ISW maps) are reported to be pushing in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions. Olexiy Biloshitsky reports Ukrainian pilots destroying a Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on the Toretsk direction. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports ongoing battles for forest belts northwest of Druzhba, with no stable control by either side.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: A missile strike on Mykolaiv community injured a 34-year-old man and damaged a private house and outbuilding. Russian FPV drones struck cars in Mezheva community, causing fires. КАB strikes on Novopavlivka community destroyed an administrative building, post office, and shop. A kamikaze drone hit Pokrovska community in Nikopol district, damaging solar panels. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 31 shellings on 16 populated areas, including Nikopol, Marhanets, Antonivka, and Kamianka, with artillery and FPV drones.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction - Latest Claim): Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" claims the 80th Guards Tank Regiment, Central Group of Forces, has "cleared" Troitske and Bogdanovka, indicating further claimed advances on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian Colonelcassad posts video confirming the liberation of Bogdanovka by Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction, with Russian flags raised. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 30 attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces on the Novopavlivka direction near Novopil, Bahatyr, Vilne Pole, and Zeleny Pole, including 11 unsuccessful attacks on Novosilka involving tanks and armored vehicles.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Volnoye Pole - Additional Information): A Russian serviceman ("Sapogi") from the "Vostok" Group of Forces confirms direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole, including assaulting Ukrainian fortifications. This reinforces the earlier claim of a captured stronghold.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Motorcycle Infantry): Russian forces are using "motorcycle assault" tactics near Toretsk, with FPV drones from "Azov" 12th Special Purpose Brigade targeting two Russian infantrymen on a motorcycle, confirming the continued use of this light infantry tactic and Ukrainian counter-efforts. A Ukrainian assault motorcycle company from the 425th Regiment "SKALA" claims successful execution of its debut combat mission, utilizing new tactics to rapidly close with the enemy and clear positions.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Ivanopolye): Russian 238th artillery brigade and 8th Guards Combined Arms Army claim destruction of Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery pieces in Ivanopolye using Lancet X-51 and Orlan-10 drones.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Fedorovka): Russian 36th Combined Arms Army's artillery and strike UAVs reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, a UAV control point, and a dugout with a firing position near Fedorovka. Two "Baba Yaga" UAVs were also reportedly destroyed by air ramming.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk direction): A Russian "Giatsint-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Tsentr" Group of Forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian mortar.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Reconstruction): The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that reconstruction efforts are nearing completion for a residential building on Nezalezhnoi Ukrainy street, destroyed in October 2022, which claimed 8 lives and displaced 59 families. Five residential buildings have been restored, one is nearing completion, and seven are actively under reconstruction. Project documentation is being developed for two more, and residents of three buildings will receive housing certificates. This highlights ongoing recovery efforts in affected areas.

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Capabilities:

  • Electronic Warfare (EW) Suppression: Ukrainian 801st Separate Detachment for Combating Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means (Naval Forces) successfully struck Russia's new "Black Eye" EW complex on Kinburn Spit. Ukrainian DPSS Hydra warriors reportedly damaged Russia's RB-109A EW control system in Kursk Oblast, a rare and expensive target.
  • Air Defense System Destruction: Ukrainian "Tavria" Group drone system units destroyed a Russian 9K322 Tor-M2 air defense system on the Tavria direction using precise drone drops. Ukrainian "Charlie" company and "Black Forest" claim detection and destruction of a Russian command vehicle and three air defense systems (Tor, Buk-M3, and S-300) in Donetsk Oblast. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports the destruction of 2 Tor-M2 air defense systems and 1 Uragan MLRS in their zone of responsibility over the past day. STERNENKO also claims that Ukrainian air defense (ReDrone program) successfully shot down two more Lancet drones.
  • Drone Countermeasures: Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down another Russian "Lancet" drone, marking their 55th Lancet interception among nearly 1,400 other Russian UAVs. The Vuhledar tactical group's air defense reportedly hit its 5000th enemy drone, an "Orlan-10". A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian Shahed drone during a night attack. Ukrainian Air Force pilots reportedly engaged an aerial target.
  • New Long-Range Drone Development: Ukraine reports the development of a "Shahed-like" drone named "Batyar" with a range of over 800 km and an 18 kg warhead. Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" comments on the "Batyar" drone, noting its lower warhead capacity (16-18 kg) compared to their own "Geran" (Shahed) and questioning its strategic purpose given Ukraine already possesses longer-range drones. Colonelcassad reports on the "Batyar" drone, noting its potential for false targets and munition drops, and speculating about the integration of an OLS (optical-location station) and Starlink terminals for operations in Crimea.
  • Russian Drone Modification Assessment: Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap states that Russia has modified "Shahed" drones to carry a larger 90 kg warhead at the expense of reduced range, making them more dangerous. Yuriy Ihnat, head of the communications department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Russia has modernized its ballistic missiles, including Iskanders, by adding radar traps and maneuvering during flight, making them harder for Patriot systems to intercept, though not impossible. Colonelcassad amplifies Ignat's statement with sarcastic commentary, suggesting Ignat "learned" about the Patriot system's limitations.
  • Ukrainian Military Units Combat Effectiveness: DeepState has published a TOP-10 list of Ukrainian units for April based on "combat points" (verified destruction of enemy equipment/personnel), highlighting effective units such as 414th Separate Brigade of Special Operations "Mad'ar's Birds", SSO A SBU, LASAR GROUP NGU, 3rd Assault Brigade, GW BAS PHOENIX, 3rd SSO Regiment, 72nd Mechanized Brigade "BULAVA", 12th Separate Special Purpose Brigade "AZOV", 412th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "NEMESIS", and 59th Assault Brigade of Unmanned Systems. A video from Operatyvnyi ZSU showcases "Mad'ar's" subordinates successfully destroying Russian MLRS, self-propelled artillery, BMPs, BTRs, and ammunition depots.
  • Russian Helicopter Downing: A Mi-8 combat helicopter reportedly crashed in Oryol Oblast during an attempt to intercept Ukrainian drones, killing all three crew members.
  • Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant Strike: Units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other elements of the Defense Forces, successfully struck the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant in Oryol Oblast, a critical supplier for Russian military-industrial complex enterprises.
  • Russian Casualties and Equipment Losses (Ukrainian Claim): Ukrainian General Staff claims an additional 1130 Russian personnel were liquidated over the past day, along with 11 tanks, 47 armored combat vehicles (BBMs), 36 artillery systems, 5 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, and 232 UAVs. These are significant reported daily losses for Russia. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports Russian losses in their zone over the past day: 129 personnel, 7 tanks, 33 armored combat vehicles, 9 artillery systems, 2 TOR M2 air defense systems, 1 Uragan MLRS, 64 automotive vehicles, 7 UAVs (Zala, Supercam, Orlan-10, Merlin), 1 motorcycle, 2 boats, 1 buggy, 7 UAV antennas, 5 communication antennas, 3 generators, 7 ammunition storage locations, 1 personnel accommodation location. They also report the destruction of 90 shelters, 1 firing position, and 3 observation posts. Russian "Voin DV" reported that 5th Combined Arms Army destroyed 6 Starlink satellite communication stations, 1 satellite antenna, 2 pickup trucks, 1 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer, 1 KBB radar station, 1 UAV control point, 2 aircraft-type UAVs, 8 "Baba Yaga" UAVs, and 17 quadcopters.
  • Russian UAV Counter-Operations (Southern Donetsk): Russian "Voin DV" reports that UAV operators of the 57th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and 78th Separate Special Forces Company of the "Vostok" Group successfully destroyed enemy UAVs in the sky on the Southern Donetsk direction.
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes (General): 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade is actively using FPV drones to target Russian personnel hiding in various locations (under trees, in plantations, in craters), confirming continued effective anti-personnel drone operations. FPV drone operators from the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade "BULAVA" released footage of a successful strike on a Russian soldier attempting to camouflage as a mannequin/scarecrow, demonstrating continued effectiveness. NgP razvedka posted a video claiming to have destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Territory (Updated): Unknown UAVs attacked an enterprise in Tula Oblast, suspected to be the "Azot" plant (fertilizer and ammonium nitrate producer, used in explosives). The governor reported damage to a natural gas pipeline. This indicates a broadened target set for Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia, potentially affecting industrial infrastructure critical to both civilian and military sectors. ASTRA reports that residents of Gritsovo, 10km from the "Azot" plant, are being evacuated, though not officially announced by authorities, indicating a potential serious incident or fear of one. STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirm the attack on NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, with reports of fire and damaged natural gas pipeline. ASTRA geolocates footage, confirming the attack on the "Azot" plant and specifying hits on "Ammonia-2," "Carbamide-2," and "Shop-5A" workshops, with damage to acid tanks. STERNENKO reports that the governor of Tula Oblast stated that acid tanks at the "Azot" plant were damaged, and local residents are being evacuated from Grytsovo village near the plant. FPV drone attacks on NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, resulted in smoke and damaged natural gas pipeline, with ASTRA geo-locating the footage and confirming hits on "Ammonia-2," "Carbamide-2," and "Shop-5A" workshops, and damage to acid tanks. The video shows smoke engulfing the area, with the author stating the "cloud is going towards Moscow." STERNENKO reports repeat attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and a total of 94 UAVs shot down by Russian forces over 6 oblasts. WarGonzo reports over 500 Ukrainian drones were intercepted across numerous Russian regions (including St. Petersburg) over the past two days, causing mobile internet outages in several areas to disrupt drone navigation. A drone also reportedly hit Patriot Park in Podolsk (Moscow region).
  • Ukrainian FPV Drone Effectiveness (Sumy): Video footage showcases Ukrainian FPV drones successfully targeting and destroying Russian artillery and a T-64B tank in the Sumy Oblast, demonstrating the ongoing impact of these asymmetric warfare tactics.
  • Ukrainian Fundraiser for Maintenance: Mykolaiv Vanok reports a successful fundraiser for a mobile workshop for heavy wheeled vehicles for the 63rd Brigade, with 1.6 million UAH raised and the workshop now delivered. They are fundraising for an excavator for the same brigade's tank crews, having raised over 900k UAH of a needed 1.1 million UAH. This highlights continued reliance on volunteer support for military equipment.

• Humanitarian and Social Issues:

  • Prisoner Exchange: The first stage of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange has concluded, resulting in 390 Ukrainians released (270 military, 120 civilian). Ukraine also released 70 collaborators to Russia, including a Medvechuk associate and former SBU/Cabinet officials. This significant humanitarian step is ongoing, with more releases anticipated. Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed their returned servicemen are in Belarus receiving assistance. Separately, 52 marines from the 36th Brigade (Mariupol defenders from 2022) were released and are undergoing treatment/rehabilitation. Russian MoD reports 270 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians (including those captured in Kursk region) have been returned, with footage released of their arrival in Podmoskovie. Colonelcassad shared video of Russian POWs returning home to Chkalovsky airfield. TASS reported that Aleksandr Khinshtein, a State Duma Deputy, met a bus with residents of the Kursk region who returned to Russia as part of the prisoner exchange, confirming civilian involvement in the exchange. Russian sources claim approximately 13,000 political prisoners and civilian captives remain in Ukraine following the exchange. Russian Archangel Spetsnaza comments on the prisoner exchange, emphasizing the difference in media portrayal of POWs and claiming that Ukrainian media shows "beaten teeth" of Russian POWs while Russia selects "adequate, educated" Ukrainian POWs for interviews, reinforcing a propaganda narrative. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War initiated public discussions on documenting crimes against Ukrainian POWs, supporting families, and media coverage, indicating ongoing efforts to highlight the issue and gather evidence. US Special Representative Kit Kellogg stated the 1000 for 1000 prisoner exchange is the "most positive outcome" of recent Istanbul negotiations, adding that a ceasefire is needed. Zelenskyy confirms the second day of the "1000 for 1000" exchange, with 307 more Ukrainian defenders returned (total 697 so far), and mentions that 27 Mariupol defenders were returned in this latest exchange. RBC-Ukraine and the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War corroborate these numbers, with the latter stating that 27 Mariupol defenders are returning, and for the first time, prisoners from specific units and military units were freed. WarGonzo reports 307 Russian soldiers were returned, with Russia's MoD confirming the exchange and their placement in Belarus for psychological and medical assistance. ASTRA also confirms Zelenskyy's statement. Butusov Plus posts highly critical commentary on returned Russian POWs, calling them "murderers, rapists, alcoholics, and recidivists" who will "return to the streets of Russia and get back to their business," portraying them as a criminal element. RBC-Ukraine shares additional footage of the liberated Ukrainian defenders, noting the age range (25-61) and presence of wounded/sick individuals. TASS reports that the Russian MoD has released footage of Russian servicemen returning from Ukrainian captivity.
  • Russian Military Personnel Conditions: A 37-year-old Russian soldier, Anton Savchenko, who lost vision in his left eye due to injuries sustained in November, was reportedly sent back to the front lines after medical examinations recommended a lower fitness category. This highlights issues with the medical and suitability assessment of injured personnel. Russian paratroopers are reportedly crowdfunding for Starlink terminals for unit communications. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for armored vehicle components. A Russian paratrooper channel, "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", confirms units returned from night duty and are preparing to "terrorize" Ukrainian forces after a few hours of rest, highlighting sustained combat operations and possibly limited rest periods. Colonelcassad is fundraising for anti-drone training, including expenses for targets and other consumables, aiming to improve Russian counter-UAV capabilities. Russian VDV (Airborne Forces) soldiers from the 7th Airborne Assault Mountain Division, operating in Zaporizhzhia, are publicly crowdfunding for 8 Starlink satellite communication terminals, indicating a perceived deficiency in or vulnerability of official communication systems. "Archangel Spetsnaz" is publicly fundraising for "Mavic" drones for Russian paratroopers on the Sumy direction, highlighting the ongoing reliance on public support for critical equipment. The 30th Engineer-Sapper Regiment has been awarded the "Guards" honorary title by Russian President Putin, reflecting recognition for combat merit and serving as a morale booster. Two Mayors reports on a combat vehicle for a special incendiary unit in Kursk Oblast that was damaged by a drone but will be repaired, highlighting the persistent threat to logistical support from drones. Russian military bloggers are sharing photo reports of Russian military personnel, including those participating in current operations, showcasing the ongoing deployment and conditions of troops. The 61st Marine Infantry Brigade thanked the "Two Mayors" channel for their support, indicating continued reliance on crowdfunding for units. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 highlights the use of dry rations for frontline troops and questions about fighting on a full stomach, implying austere conditions and emphasizing the physical demands of combat. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) posted images and video of a military cadet corps graduation ceremony, emphasizing patriotism and combat traditions, with over 70% of graduates entering military universities. Igor Strelkov's channels are actively crowdfunding for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts for Russian military units, explicitly stating these are for "frontline" use where electricity is unavailable.
  • Russian Internal Security and Information Warfare:
    • An individual in Voronezh Oblast opened fire near a train station, injuring one person. The perpetrator is a local driver with a criminal past and debts, ruling out terrorism for now.
    • Patriarch Kirill is reportedly disguised in the Russian Federal Tax Service database under the name "Ivan Zakharovich Prokhorov," raising concerns about financial transparency and potential sanction evasion. Alex Parker Returns shares a sarcastic video implying Patriarch Kirill is a "cuckold in a cassock" and suggesting he should "repent to the vegetable base and convert to Islam," indicating internal criticism and mockery. Alex Parker Returns also posted a sarcastic photo implying dissatisfaction with political/religious figures, stating "In the liberal camp, everything is fine." Alex Parker Returns also posted a satirical photo of a laughing face. Putin publicly congratulated Patriarch Kirill on his name day.
    • A photo of deceased Russian border guard Yevgeny Rodionov (killed in Chechnya in 1996 for refusing to remove his cross) is circulated, presented as a symbol of courage and loyalty. This narrative is being actively re-promoted, emphasizing his refusal to convert and subsequent beheading on his birthday.
    • A former Wagner fighter, Rail Khairov, was sentenced to 23 years for the murder of a muezzin in Saratov Oblast, committed less than a year after his release from prison under a combat pardon. This highlights concerns about the reintegration of pardoned former combatants. Two convicted criminals who signed military contracts escaped during transport in Khimki, Moscow Oblast, and were later apprehended. Alex Parker Returns reports the arrest of three individuals in Podmoskovie for spreading "provocative videos online," likely connected to the previous discussion about a video mocking Patriarch Kirill.
    • An accident involving a minivan carrying children in Moscow Oblast resulted in two child fatalities and eight injuries.
    • Russian police in Khabarovsk Krai have arrested a man who had abducted his six-year-old daughter four years prior and was in international search. Russian police in Khabarovsk Krai promote Vladimir Putin's statements on raising children as an example of good parenting. TASS reports "Komosomolskaya Pravda" celebrates its 100th anniversary, with Russian police in Khabarovsk Krai joining the celebration. Kotsnews shares a historical anecdote about a "Komsomolskaya Pravda" special correspondent's dangerous experience in Chechnya, linking it to the newspaper's 100th anniversary.
    • Russian school textbooks have removed mentions of European countries and the USA, now focusing on China and North Korea, and no longer list Ukraine as a bordering country.
    • Mariupol: French TV (BFM) reports on the "Russification" of the younger generation in occupied Mariupol, showing school ceremonies with Russian symbols, military personnel distributing diplomas, and children expressing desires to join the FSB, highlighting Russia's efforts to culturally integrate occupied territories. A new documentary film "Mariupol. Three Years of Freedom" has been released by Russian "Reporters" group, focusing on the lives of residents who returned to the city and claiming to show "heroes" who survived the 2022 fighting.
    • A Russian military blogger ("Fighterbomber") posted "Good morning, country!" along with a photo, a common morale-boosting message. Fighterbomber also celebrated the 85th anniversary of the Syzran Higher Military Aviation School for Pilots, a key institution for training army aviation pilots, highlighting its role as a "forge of combat pilots." Alex Parker Returns posts sarcastic remarks about Ukrainian air defense after the Kyiv attack, suggesting that "Ukrainians shot down everything with the workshops of the Antonov plant." Financial Times reports that British officials are investigating whether "acting persons in Russia" could have recruited three Ukrainians accused of arson attacks on UK PM Keir Starmer's property. Russian "Politburo" reportedly agreed to a gradual "fall" of the ruble to 140 rubles per US dollar by year-end, with "catastrophic" inflation expectations. A Russian social media post lists "true results of the SMO" including "cleaned up prisons" (prisoner recruitment), "squeezed out liberals, bought nationalists," and "showed that NATO is nothing without the USA," indicating internal propaganda aimed at justifying the war and consolidating power. Another post claims that even small drone attacks on Russian airports cause closures, and questions why Russia doesn't conduct similar attacks on Ukrainian civilian airports, indicating a desire for escalation. A Russian source comments cynically on the updated nuclear doctrine in relation to the current situation, potentially indicating low morale or cynicism among some segments of the Russian population regarding strategic messaging. A Chechen commander publicly states that the "main task of Akhmat circus" (a derogatory term for his unit) is to preserve the lives of Ukrainians ("khokhols") and encourages them to defect to Russia, framing the conflict as a struggle against "Antichrist Dajjal." This is a clear attempt at psychological warfare to encourage surrender and undermine Ukrainian morale. Russian forces are distributing a video implying that a wounded Ukrainian soldier was spared by a Russian drone operator, likely for propaganda purposes to portray Russian 'humanity'. Russian Fighterbomber reports that Russians are buying properties in the UAE on installment plans due to rising mortgage rates and changing dollar exchange rates, indicating capital flight and economic concerns. Russian military bloggers are also promoting real estate investment opportunities in Thailand for Russians, citing favorable economic conditions and the potential for currency-stable income. A Russian NGO prepared materials on the danger of Russian comics to the enemy, and Two Mayors states this indicates the activity is important and needed. A new temple dedicated to participants of the war with Ukraine, with a height of a 10-story building, will be built in St. Petersburg. Russian President Putin signed a law to implement an experiment on additional control and accounting mechanisms for foreign citizens arriving in Moscow and Moscow Oblast without visas, starting September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2029. This expands regional powers for attracting foreign labor. Dmitry Medvedev made strong, aggressive statements regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, particularly before Victory Day, emphasizing a "harsh response" and calling for the "destruction of vile bloodsucking parasites." He also makes a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station" (UVB-76) in a post about the latest events around Ukraine. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of a multi-story building in Donetsk, with a child also among the affected, confirming casualties in the gas explosion incident. TASS reports that speaker Volodin sent a bill to the State Duma committee on increasing pregnancy and maternity benefits for students, with an average benefit of 90,202 rubles, exceeding the scholarship amount. MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts reports that Putin signed a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, allowing debt write-off from 25,000 to 1 million rubles without court intervention upon presentation of a certificate. ASTRA reports that Ekaterina Mizulina has filed a lawsuit against Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Davankov, accusing him of slander and false denunciation, after he questioned the spending of 200 million rubles by her organization. TASS reports snow falling in Ust-Kamchatsky district on Kamchatka (also in Khanty-Mansiysk). TASS reports a bill will be introduced in the State Duma to prohibit depicting churches without crosses. Basurin o Glavnom attempts to twist the Washington shooting incident into an anti-Israeli and anti-Western narrative, using it to justify Russian actions in Ukraine, a clear example of opportunistic information warfare.
  • Ukrainian Military Commemoration: The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" was opened near the Arch of Freedom of the Ukrainian People in Kyiv on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizing resistance and sacrifice and commemorating the historical significance of Ukrainian marine infantry. Additionally, May 23 is commemorated as the day Yevhen Konovalets, head of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, was killed by Soviet special services in Rotterdam. A video was released highlighting Hero of Ukraine Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov's experience, focusing on his combat journey, severe injury (loss of arm), and rescue.
  • Ukrainian Cybersecurity Report: Ukrainian State Service of Special Communications, in collaboration with ICE Task Force, published an English-language report "War and Cyber: Three Years of Struggle and Lessons for Global Security," analyzing cyber warfare trends against Ukraine since 2022 and offering recommendations for international cyber defense. Cyberpolice is participating in a career festival, demonstrating digital tools, including mobile device information extraction, data recovery from flash drives, OSINT via a game, and workshops on cyber tools, also promoting the "Brama" project for digital literacy.
  • Andriy Portnov Assassination: Former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov was assassinated in Madrid, Spain, widely reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, fueling intense information warfare and highlighting potential extrajudicial actions. Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that French leadership arrested Pavel Durov to influence elections in Romania, implying that French President Macron used "barbaric methods" to control elections. Colonelcassad comments on Durov's claims about French external intelligence influencing Romanian elections, framing it as direct external influence on "elections."
  • Alleged Ukrainian Fortification Corruption: A new allegation of internal corruption within Ukraine regarding fortification construction has emerged. Shef Hayabusa implies renewed allegations of internal corruption in Ukraine regarding fortification construction, stating that those who "steal" communicate in Ukrainian and wear embroidered shirts but are "rotten inside." Shef Hayabusa also crowdfunds for car repairs.
  • Sumi Oblast Civilian Casualty: A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, Sumy Oblast, and hospitalized. Over a dozen houses in the community were also damaged or destroyed.
  • Kyiv Civilian Impact: Fire incidents on the first and last floors of a residential multi-story building in Kyiv's Dnipro district were reported as a result of the ongoing attack. DSNS (State Emergency Service of Ukraine) has released footage showing the aftermath of the massive drone and ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, confirming fires in residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and a non-residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. One man was rescued from a burning apartment, and four people sought medical attention for stress reaction in Obolonskyi district. RBC-Ukraine reports that rescuers in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast, extinguished a fire in a private household caused by UAV debris, with two injured civilians receiving medical assistance. STERNENKO confirms 8 casualties in Kyiv as a result of the combined attack, detailing injuries in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and fires in non-residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi district, as well as two injured in Kyiv Oblast. ASTRA provides photographic evidence of the damage in Obolonskyi district. The KMVA reports a total of 15 injured in Kyiv across multiple districts (1 in Holosiivskyi, 7 in Solomianskyi, 2 in Dniprovskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi), indicating widespread civilian impact. Tsaplienko reports destruction in the "Blockbuster" shopping mall in Kyiv due to the attack. RBC-Ukraine reports 15 injured in Kyiv, including 7 in Solomianskyi, 1 in Holosiivskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi, and 2 in Dniprovskyi districts, confirming it was one of the "most massive attacks." Zelenskyy stated that 250 Shahed-type drones and 14 ballistic missiles targeted Ukraine, with casualties and damage in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro Oblasts. Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, Basurin o Glavnom, Voenkor Russkoy Vesny, Rybar) report that the Antonov plant in Kyiv was among the targets hit during the night attack, with Alex Parker Returns claiming "over 20 hits" and "good hits," and Rybar stating it was the "main target." They also publish dramatic photos of Kyiv on fire and sarcastically comment on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Shef Hayabusa also comments on the severe damage to Kyiv this night. KMVA provides information on available material aid and assistance for Kyiv residents affected by the strikes, including city programs and "eRecovery" applications. Podduvny also posted photos of the damage from the night attack on Kyiv, asserting that the Antonov plant was among the targets hit. The KMVA provides an updated count of 14 injured in Kyiv, less than previously reported, with 9 damaged residential buildings, 26 damaged cars, 2 schools, a polyclinic, a post office, and a boiler room damaged. RBC-Ukraine reports that over 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles were detected in the Air Command "Center" zone of responsibility, mostly targeting Kyiv, with drones attacking from various directions and changing routes, and also attacking from higher altitudes, making them harder to suppress. RBC-Ukraine also reports a man attempted suicide in a school shelter in Kyiv during the attack and is now hospitalized.
  • Russian Historical Commemoration: Basurin provides a historical account and photos of the cruiser "Aurora," commemorating its launch and its role in Russian naval and revolutionary history. This is part of Russian efforts to reinforce national identity and historical narratives. Gleb Nikitin posted a video celebrating the 5th anniversary of the Corporate University of the Nizhny Novgorod Regional Government, highlighting a regional development and governance initiative.
  • Ukrainian Civilian Casualties (Kharkiv Oblast): Six settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck. 4 fatalities (two 60-year-old men in Kupiansk, a 33-year-old woman in Chuhuiv, a 78-year-old woman in Vilkhuvatka). 7 injured civilians (49-year-old man in Kupiansk, 58-year-old man and 67-year-old woman in Chuhuiv, 45 and 47-year-old men in Staryi Saltiv, 61 and 80-year-old women in Vilkhuvatka). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure including 10 private homes, communal enterprise buildings, vehicles, warehouses, and an autocrane. The Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine reports a 77-year-old woman killed and a 61-year-old woman wounded by Russian aviation strikes on Vilkhuvatka, Kupiansk district.
  • Ukrainian Military Morale/Commemoration: "OTU Kharkiv" highlights a Ukrainian soldier "Rudik" from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, a sergeant of material supply, who served 40 days defending Klishchiivka near Bakhmut, was wounded by a sniper during rotation, but did not break. This story emphasizes resilience and commitment. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" awarded state and Ministry of Defense honors to soldiers, sergeants, and officers for bravery and effectiveness, including "Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky," "For Courage," and "Iron Cross," boosting morale. Ukrainian General Staff promotes bonuses for military contracts (1M UAH, 0% mortgage, state-funded training) to attract new recruits.
  • Ukrainian POW Search: A video shows families of missing soldiers bringing photos to prisoner exchanges, seeking information from released POWs, seeking information from released POWs, highlighting the emotional toll and ongoing search for missing personnel. Butusov Plus posts a satirical video showing Russian soldiers observing wild pigs consuming the bodies of their deceased comrades, aiming to demoralize and expose the grim realities of the war from a Ukrainian perspective. Ukrainian GUR states that over 150 cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war have been documented, with direct orders given to kill prisoners. This trend is confirmed by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates the GUR finding, quoting the UN that such executions would not occur without orders or consent from the highest military command, implying presidential involvement.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Civilian Casualty: The Russian-appointed governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported that a girl was killed and four children (aged 1, 8, 9, 10) were injured in a Ukrainian "terrorist attack" on a civilian vehicle in Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian source in Zaporizhzhia reports the continued operation of safe in-person learning for children with special educational needs in a bomb shelter at a special boarding school, including corrective and medical services.
  • Ukrainian Mobilization Resistance: Reports of forced mobilization in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Lviv, with civilian resistance, including a woman in Lviv defending her husband from the TCC, and public protests against detentions in residential areas.
  • German Political Shift: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party (CDU/CSU) gained in polls, while the pro-Russian AfD lost ground, suggesting that Chancellor Friedrich Merz's tactic of addressing illegal migration has been effective in stemming support for populist parties. Tsaplienko highlights this as Chancellor Friedrich Merz pulling ahead of the pro-Russian "AfD" due to his tactics on illegal migration, increasing the CDU/CSU's lead.
  • Donetsk City Explosion: An explosion occurred in a multi-story building in Donetsk, reportedly due to a gas leak in an apartment. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of the building, with a child also among the injured, confirming casualties.
  • Russian Internal Affairs: TASS reports the death of 85-year-old science fiction writer Yuri Nikitin, an unrelated internal event.

• International Relations and Economic Shifts:

  • Trump's Stance on EU Tariffs: Donald Trump stated he does not intend to reconsider the 50% import tariff on EU goods, which will take effect June 1, but confirmed willingness to negotiate if EU companies build factories in the US. This reiterates his protectionist stance.
  • US Missile Defense System: Donald Trump announced that the US has selected the architecture for a new "Golden Dome" missile defense system, projected to cost $175 billion over three years ($25 billion next year). It aims to integrate next-generation land, sea, and space technologies, with Canada expressing interest. The US Air Force acknowledges it's still conceptual. Russian analysis expresses skepticism about the feasibility and cost, given delays in other US ICBM programs and a projected increase in Chinese and Iranian ICBM arsenals by 2035.
  • Russian Political Statements: Volodin states that "euroofficials and their puppets in Ukraine are trying to disrupt renewed US-mediated negotiations." He further threatened an "adequate and harsh response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities" following drone attacks on Kyiv. Dmitry Medvedev made strong, aggressive statements regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, particularly before Victory Day, emphasizing a "harsh response" and calling for the "destruction of vile bloodsucking parasites." He also makes a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station" (UVB-76) in a post about the latest events around Ukraine.
  • EU Military Funding: EU Ambassadors approved a plan for the militarization of Europe with €150 billion. Colonelcassad reports that this is part of a larger €800 billion ReArm Europe program, with focus on procurement of US equipment and concerns about production capacity.
  • Russia-US Prisoner Exchange Talks: Dmitry Peskov confirmed ongoing discussions on prisoner exchange with the US ("9 for 9" contact).
  • Russia-Vatican Relations: Peskov mentioned the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that a meeting in the Vatican on the Ukrainian issue is "unrealistic," indicating Russia's continued rejection of a mediated peace process outside its own terms.
  • Poland-Ukraine Relations: President Zelenskyy and Polish PM Donald Tusk discussed presidential elections, peace steps, and EU membership clusters, emphasizing continued pressure on Russia. Poland remains a crucial partner for Ukraine's security and Euro-integration.
  • Belarusian Action Against Kalinoŭski Regiment: Belarusian authorities initiated criminal proceedings against and declared wanted 125 individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. Five commanders sentenced in absentia to 12-20 years.
  • Foreign Fighter Involvement: Russian sources report a Serbian volunteer from "Ural" battalion, Aleksandar Kubatovic, claiming to be a regular Russian Army serviceman, highlighting legal challenges for foreign fighters.
  • Defender 25 Exercise: US Army Europe and Africa Command is conducting Defender 25, a series of three multinational exercises involving approximately 28,000 personnel from 29 nations across Europe, demonstrating rapid deployment and interoperability.
  • Poland's Patriot Missile Request: Poland has formally requested a batch of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for its Patriot systems from the US, valued at $5.8 billion.
  • Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Export: Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that the first foreign customer of the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter jet will begin its operation in 2025.
  • Ukraine's Stance on Peace Memorandum: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Tykhyy states an expected Russian memorandum on a potential truce will be a "test for Russia" to show genuine intentions, warning against "maximalist demands" and noting Russia's delaying tactics.
  • Russia Questions Ukrainian Presidential Legitimacy: Lavrov stated that the question of President Zelenskyy's legitimacy will be of "fundamental importance." This is a significant development in Russia's information warfare, designed to undermine the Ukrainian government's authority and international standing. General Cavoli, US Forces Europe Commander, states that Russia has enough "meat" and "iron" to continue the war for at least two more years at current rates of attrition.
  • G7 Sanctions Threat: G7 nations have threatened Russia with stricter sanctions if it does not cease fire in Ukraine, indicating sustained international pressure.
  • Trump to Attend G7 Summit: Donald Trump is confirmed to attend the G7 summit in Canada from June 15-17, where support for Ukraine will be a key topic. This indicates continued high-level diplomatic engagement involving the US, even with Trump's stated reservations about intervention.
  • Russia's African Railway Projects: Rybar reports that Russian Railways (RZD) is exploring opportunities to build and modernize railway infrastructure in Africa, particularly in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and South Africa, signaling a geopolitical and economic expansion into the continent. Russian military bloggers are also promoting real estate investment opportunities in Thailand for Russians, citing favorable economic conditions and the potential for currency-stable income. A Russian NGO prepared materials on the danger of Russian comics to the enemy, and Two Mayors states this indicates the activity is important and needed. A new temple dedicated to participants of the war with Ukraine, with a height of a 10-story building, will be built in St. Petersburg. Russian President Putin signed a law to implement an experiment on additional control and accounting mechanisms for foreign citizens arriving in Moscow and Moscow Oblast without visas, starting September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2029. This expands regional powers for attracting foreign labor. TASS reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will discuss Ukrainian settlement issues in Moscow and reiterate Ankara's readiness to mediate peace talks.
  • Finland-Russia Airspace: Finland's Ministry of Defense reports that two Russian Air Force planes are suspected of violating Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland in the eastern Baltic, prompting an investigation by Finnish border guards. This incident suggests potential Russian probing of NATO's new eastern flank.
  • Belarusian Drone Development: Belarusian enterprise "KB Unmanned Helicopters" showcased the "Sky-Truck" unmanned helicopter at MILEX-2025, with a 500 kg payload capacity, 360-480 km range, and speeds of 140-180 km/h, with a preliminary order for 20 units. This indicates Belarus's growing indigenous drone production capabilities, potentially for military or dual-use purposes.
  • Kazakhstan's Shifting Narrative: Rybar reports that Kazakh authorities are systematically combating Russian symbols of Victory Day (e.g., "georgievskaya lentochka," Soviet red flag), promoting their own "Victory Ribbon" and "Batyrlarga tagzym" (Bow to Heroes) alternative events. This indicates a deliberate effort to nationalize historical narratives and gradually decouple from the common historical past with Russia, potentially impacting Russia's influence in Central Asia.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Chasov Yar Direction: Russian T-90M "Proryv" tank crews of the Ivanovo and Kostroma airborne forces are reported destroying Ukrainian strongholds and personnel near Chasov Yar. Russian forces are actively delivering ammunition and provisions to their positions. Russian military expert claimed Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen under Chasov Yar. Battles continue on several sections within Chasov Yar's urban area, with many recently liberated territories effectively becoming a "grey zone" due to high drone activity. Russian MoD also officially confirmed the liberation of Stupochki under Chasov Yar.
  • Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces are broadly advancing, with the 150th Motor Rifle Division moving towards Popovy Yar and clearing Romanovka and Old Nikolaevka. They also advanced towards Shevchenko Pervoye, securing strongholds and covering 12.5 sq km. Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction, with 6 ongoing. Russian special forces "AKHMAT" are working on enemy strongholds at night. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing. Russian forces, supported by ZALA Z-16 reconnaissance drones, destroyed Ukrainian 117th Brigade storage facilities in the Zoloty Kolodyaz area. Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" claims the 80th Guards Tank Regiment, Central Group of Forces, has "cleared" Troitske and Bogdanovka. Russian Ministry of Defense also reported destroying a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Shevchenko area. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is currently crowdfunding for equipment. Russian Colonelcassad posts video confirming the liberation of Bogdanovka by Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction, with Russian flags raised. The commander of the Ukrainian 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade was reportedly relieved of duty due to a unit withdrawal under threat of encirclement. Russian FPV drone operators claim to have disrupted Ukrainian command and control in the Konstantinovka area by destroying several antennas. Russian sources also claim to have "liberated" Nova Poltavka. Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian logistics on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified" by FABs and FPV drones, threatening a rapid collapse of urban defenses. Russian FAB-250 with UMPK module hit a residential area in Konstantinovka, resulting in 1 civilian fatality and 3 injuries, alongside damage to 6 private households, a car, and utility lines. A Russian "Giatsint-S" self-propelled artillery system destroyed a Ukrainian mortar in Krasnoarmeysk direction. FPV-drone footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol, implying potential friendly fire or misidentification. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports that south of Zorya, from Pravdovka, Russian forces advanced on a broad flank and are working on enemy strongholds. Near Yablonovka, they are storming with the prospect of reaching the reservoir and encircling the enemy. From Novopaltavka, they advanced 2.5 km with forest belts and two enemy strongholds, disrupting the offensive on Druzhkivka.
  • Otradnoye/Komar Direction (Southern Donetsk): Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade claims liberation of Otradnoye, covering over 10 sq km and consolidating positions towards Komar. They claim to have repelled 4 Ukrainian counterattacks (2 with MaxxPro BMMs destroyed) and advanced up to 1 km in depth and along the front. Clearing operations continue in Zelenoye Pole. Russian "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Ukrainian General Staff reports 9 ongoing battles in the Novopavlivka direction, including towards Otradne. The liberation of Bogatyr, a fortified area, is confirmed. "Voyenkor Kotenok" reports that after taking Otradne, units of the "Vostok" Group continued to advance towards Komar, establishing positions west of it and in the southern part of the enemy's defensive line, and are engaged in battles at the southeastern outskirts of Komar. North of Otradne, battles are ongoing for forest belts on the southern bank of the Volchya River. "Voin DV" posts exclusive footage of destroyed Ukrainian automotive equipment during the liberation of Otradnoye. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 30 attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces on the Novopavlivka direction near Novopil, Bahatyr, Vilne Pole, and Zeleny Pole, including 11 unsuccessful attacks on Novosilka involving tanks and armored vehicles. Russian MoD officially confirmed the liberation of Otradnoye, specifying that the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Vostok Group of Forces liberated the settlement, advanced quickly, and cleared about 200 buildings, setting up Russian flags.
  • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk direction): Russian 103rd Regiment is advancing beyond Dzerzhinsk, reportedly burning Ukrainian infantry and positions, utilizing FPV drones to destroy enemy concentrations. Ukrainian General Staff reports 20 attacks in the Toretsk direction, 18 repelled, with battles ongoing. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is reportedly transitioning into a "grey zone." Russian FPV drone operators recorded successful strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). Olexiy Biloshitsky reports Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on the Toretsk direction. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports ongoing battles for forest belts northwest of Druzhba, with no stable control by either side.
  • Volnoye Pole (South Donetsk Direction): Russian Vostok Group's 5th Combined Arms Army assault detachment successfully captured a well-fortified Ukrainian stronghold. A Russian serviceman from the "Vostok" Group confirms direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole, including assaulting Ukrainian fortifications. Sniper teams of the 36th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) are operating on the Shakhtyorsk direction. A Russian serviceman from the "Vostok" Group with callsign "Sapogi" confirmed direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole.
  • General Donetsk: Russian artillery and FPV drones are actively striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian General Staff reports 202 combat engagements over the past day, with Russian forces conducting 5837 shellings and 130 MLRS strikes. General Staff of ZSU posts photos of experienced tank crews training.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 out of 3 attacks repelled; battle continues near Kurdyumivka and towards Bila Hora.
  • Verkhnekamenskoye (Seversk direction): Rybar reports Russian forces fighting on the western outskirts. Russian sources claim advances of 1.5 km into the residential area of Verkhnokamyanske and occupation of new positions in the western part. Russian "Dva Mayora" reports FAB-3000 strikes in Siversk direction (Zvanovka).
  • Marinka: Photos show the devastated urban landscape, with views towards Donetsk and Kurakhove, indicating extensive destruction from prolonged combat.
  • Dyliyivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "South" Group drone operators and artillery claimed destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka, stating 8 Ukrainian servicemen, a food depot, and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
  • Toretsk/Novopavlivka/Kurakhove: ISW maps indicate Ukrainian forces advanced under Toretsk, while Russian forces are pushing in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions.
  • Ivanopolye (Donetsk Oblast): Russian 238th artillery brigade and 8th Guards Combined Arms Army claim destruction of Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery pieces in Ivanopolye using Lancet X-51 and Orlan-10 drones.
  • Fedorovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian 36th Combined Arms Army's artillery and and strike UAVs reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, a UAV control point, and a dugout with a firing position near Fedorovka. Two "Baba Yaga" UAVs were also reportedly destroyed by air ramming.
  • Donetsk City: An explosion occurred in a multi-story building, reportedly due to a gas leak. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of the building, with a child also among the injured, confirming casualties.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces of the 121st regiment, 68th division ("West" Group of Forces) are targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, aided by "Groza Leska" fiber-optic FPV drone control systems. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Chuhuiv district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Kadyrov reported inspection of captured Ukrainian equipment, including a BM-21 "Grad" and an Oshkosh M-ATV, to be repurposed for Russian forces. A photo also depicts an unsuccessful attempt by a Russian force to reach the Kursk border. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in the Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas. On the Kupiansk direction, 5 attacks occurred in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove, with 2 battles ongoing. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces. Russian military bloggers highlight the importance of Radkovka's liberation due to its proximity to the road to Kupiansk, complicating Ukrainian supply. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities and 7 injuries in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian attacks over the past day, with damage to residential homes, warehouses, and enterprises in Kupiansk, Chuhuiv, Staryi Saltiv, and Vilkhuvatka. The Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine reports a 77-year-old woman killed and a 61-year-old woman wounded by Russian aviation strikes on Vilkhuvatka, Kupiansk district, with damage to private homes and outbuildings. Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces claim advances towards Pokalyanoye and seized forest areas north of Volchansk Khutors. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves, resulting in high personnel and light vehicle losses for Russia. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, reports over 400 defensive fortifications built in the region since 2022. Russian forces claim taking control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advancing 400m near Fiholivka. Russian Armed Forces claim to have occupied part of a forest near Kolesnikovka and cleared 500 meters of railway from Ukrainian forces. ISW assesses recent Ukrainian advances near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast). Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, hitting Ukrainian units near Kupiansk and Andreyevka, resulting in up to 215 Ukrainian troops, three armored fighting vehicles (including one US-made M113 APC), 17 motor vehicles, two artillery guns (including one UK-made 155-mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system), one electronic warfare station, and two ammunition depots neutralized.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Shostka district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Ukrainian FPV drones reportedly destroyed Russian artillery and a T-64B tank in the region. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is engaged in counter-attacks, destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Sumy-Kursk border region. A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, and a fire started in a house after RSZV strike. Ukrainian forces have attacked another bridge in Korovyaki, Kursk Oblast, attempting to isolate the Tyotkino bridgehead and impede Russian reinforcement transfers, echoing previous efforts to isolate the Glushkovsky district. Russian forces claim liberation of Maryino and ongoing battles for Belovody. Russian marine infantry units reportedly "burning out" forest belts near Myropillya. An Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka reportedly killed 6 and wounded over 10 servicemen. A Russian video claims the destruction of a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer in Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, on May 11, using FPV drones. Russian sources claim to have liberated Loknya, a village in Sumy Oblast, stating this will determine the fate of the logistics center in Yunakivka, where battles are ongoing. RBC-Ukraine refutes claims of Russian entry into Yunakivka. Russian MoD officially confirmed the liberation of Loknya in Sumy Oblast. Russian MoD reports that the Sever Group of Forces liberated Loknya and launched strikes at Ukrainian clusters near Yunakovka, Bessalovka, Miropolye, Sadki, and Maryino, resulting in losses of more than 155 troops, one tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, ten field artillery guns, and one ammunition depot. Colonelcassad reports that Russian aviation struck a bridge over the Psel river near Mogritsa in Sumy Oblast, causing part of it to collapse, aiming to enhance the buffer zone.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: "Viking" detachment operators are destroying detected Ukrainian personnel hideouts. Stabilization point for the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Transcarpathian Brigade established for combat medics. Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports 403 enemy attacks on 12 settlements, including 4 air strikes, 243 FPV drone attacks, 5 MLRS shellings, and 151 artillery strikes. Two residents of Polohiv district were injured, and 11 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and an enterprise were received. Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia are actively using FPV drones against Russian positions, destroying personnel and equipment, as evidenced by videos from the 141st Separate Infantry Brigade, 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade, and 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Russian VDV (Airborne Forces) soldiers from the 7th Airborne Assault Mountain Division, operating in Zaporizhzhia, are publicly crowdfunding for 8 Starlink satellite communication terminals, indicating a perceived deficiency in or vulnerability of official communication systems. Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian logistics on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified" by FABs and FPV drones, threatening a rapid collapse of urban defenses. The Russian-appointed governor reported that a girl was killed and four children were injured in a Ukrainian attack on a vehicle in Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian MLRS crews from the "Vostok" Group struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment area, confirming a concentration of enemy manpower and hardware. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports successful reconstruction efforts for a residential building destroyed in 2022, highlighting ongoing recovery.
• Krasnolimansky Direction: Torso is a "grey zone." Fighting continues for Rybkhoz and the northern part of the village. Russian forces control several forest belts near Kolodezey but haven't secured the village. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian forces advancing near Lipovoye and Redkodub, pushing out the enemy, with Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) supporting with 4 FAB strikes on Ukrainian positions in Redkodub. They also mention ongoing battles for forest belts north of Novomikhailovka. Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 attacks in the Lyman direction, with 5 ongoing. Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces hit Ukrainian units near Redkodub and Yampol, resulting in losses.
• Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 5 Russian attempts to advance near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka, all repelled. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 5 attacks repelled on the Orikhiv direction.
• Dnipro Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 unsuccessful Russian attempts to attack fortifications. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 2 unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions near the Antonivka bridges.
• Kursk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian assault actions against Ukrainian positions, with 4 ongoing. Russia conducted 6 air strikes, dropping 10 guided bombs, and 239 artillery shellings, including 12 from MLRS. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for units on the Kursk front, stating an activation of the enemy near Tyotkino. A Ukrainian volunteer from Lviv Oblast was heavily wounded by an enemy shell in Kursk Oblast. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tyotkino. Russian "Northern Wind" units claim to have repelled a Ukrainian armored assault in Glushkovo direction, destroying two BMPs (including a Bradley) and damaging a third, and driving back a Stryker APC. Russian authorities claim full control over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are attempting to attack Tyotkino, suffering significant losses (up to 40 units of equipment and hundreds of assault troops). A Russian local resident from Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, provided a video testimony alleging Ukrainian forces committed atrocities, including drone attacks on civilians, shooting fleeing residents, and looting shops and apartments, also claiming that Ukrainian civilians from Sumy participated in the looting. Russian Investigative Committee claims 16 civilians, including two children (13 and 16 years old), were injured in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from a Ukrainian HIMARS rocket strike on May 22. Positional battles reported in Sudzha, with Russian forces advancing 500 meters in Gornal and occupying new positions in residential areas. Two elderly men were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts of Kursk Oblast. Butusov Plus shares video of Ukrainian forces successfully ambushing and destroying a Russian unit on the Kursk direction.
• Radkovka (Kharkov region): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces.
• Kherson Oblast: FPV drone operators from the "Convoy E.I.V." volunteer corps brigade destroyed a Turkish-made Kirpi armored vehicle in Kherson Oblast. Russian "Dnepr" Group UAV operators (callsign "Yasen") reportedly struck a Ukrainian strongpoint in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko posts video of destruction of a Russian truck deep in Kherson Oblast rear areas, commenting on Russian sources' reactions. Russian units are training to deploy pontoon bridges in Kherson Oblast, which Ukrainian sources view as a potential precursor to river crossing attempts. Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces have repelled 2 Russian army assaults in the Kherson axis.
• Dnipropetrovsk Border Claims: Russian sources claim that units of the 90th Guards Tank Division has breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Novonikolaevka. Ukrainian authorities have denied this claim, stating it is a deliberate fake for intimidation, but acknowledge Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in the area. Over 20 Russian attacks reported in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, with Nikopol region suffering drone and heavy artillery attacks. An Iskander-M strike was reported at a Patriot SAM position near Orzhonikidze in Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Bodies of Ukrainian Soldiers: Russian forces claim to have discovered numerous bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, some burned and unidentifiable, in forested areas near Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, and near Chasov Yar, framed as evidence of poor Ukrainian evacuation practices and high casualties.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): A Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) was reported to have attempted to reach Bryansk city, engaged in a firefight near Subbotovo and Myakishevo, and were blocked by Rosgvardia. Russian sources later claimed the "terrorists" were eliminated.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Specialists from the International Anti-Mine Center and "Bars-Belgorod" volunteers are demining territories in border regions of Belgorod Oblast, finding unexploded ordnance and cluster submunitions. Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast reported a civilian wounded by a drone attacking a moving car, resulting in traumatic amputation of his right arm. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Air Defense Success: 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down another Russian "Lancet" UAV (their 55th). Units of the "Tavria" Group destroyed a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system using drone drops. Ukrainian 801st Separate Detachment for Combating Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means (Naval Forces) destroyed Russia's new "Black Eye" EW complex on Kinburn Spit. The Vuhledar tactical group's air defense reportedly hit its 5000th enemy drone, an "Orlan-10", noting a tripling of Russian reconnaissance flights on Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions and increased use of AI-controlled "Zala V-20" drones that penetrate deep into Ukrainian defense (up to 70-80 km). Ukrainian forces neutralized three UAVs heading towards Sloviansk. Ukrainian air defense is active in Kyiv against Shahed drones. A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian Shahed drone during a night attack. Ukrainian Air Force reports 6 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) were shot down over Kyiv, and 245 of 250 enemy UAVs (Shahed/imitators) were neutralized across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine (128 shot down, 117 lost/suppressed by EW). This indicates a high rate of success against a very large-scale combined attack. Tsaplienko corroborates the Air Force report of 6/14 ballistic missiles shot down and 245/250 UAVs neutralized. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 2 Shahed UAVs destroyed by "OUV Tavria" assets. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports the destruction of 2 Tor-M2 air defense systems and 1 Uragan MLRS in their zone of responsibility over the past day, adding to confirmed Russian air defense losses. STERNENKO confirms that Ukrainian air defense forces, using the ReDrone program, shot down two more Lancet drones. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports that Ukrainian Air Force pilots engaged an aerial target.
• Russian Air Activity: Animated scheme of Russian strikes on May 22-23 (Uman, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi) from Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. Russian MoD claims "Sever Group" drone operators destroying Ukrainian combat groups. Russian tactical aviation active on northeastern direction with threat of aviation weapons. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Russian forces reportedly conducted one missile and 50 air strikes, using two missiles and dropping 80 KABs, deploying 1291 kamikaze drones, and conducting 4204 shellings across the front. Russian "Gunter" squad claims to have hit a Ukrainian network tower near the "AKHMAT" special forces area. Colonelcassad and RVvoenkor report Kyiv receiving "Geraniums" (Shahed drones), with explosions and fires confirmed in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district. Two people reported injured in Kyiv due to falling debris. Explosions also reported in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. "Voyenkor Kotenok" confirms multiple fires in Kyiv and metro disruptions, and a missile strike on an object in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 1,177 fixed-wing UAVs between May 20-23, including 788 outside the special military operation zone. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russia launched 14 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) from Taganrog, Yeysk, Bryansk, and occupied Crimea, targeting Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, alongside 250 Shahed/imitator UAVs from multiple directions.
  • Kyiv Mass Drone and Rocket Strikes: Russian sources (ASTRA, Colonelcassad) confirm mass strikes on Kyiv, with reports of approximately 50 Russian strike drones in the skies over the Ukrainian capital. The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) confirms fires on the first and last floors of a residential multi-story building in Kyiv's Dnipro district due to the attack. This signifies a highly intensive and destructive aerial assault targeting Kyiv. New reports confirm Kyiv is "in flames" from a "most powerful attack" lasting almost 6 hours, with hundreds of explosions from "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) and air defense missiles. Russian sources are satirically commenting on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense during this attack, using the phrase "All past" to suggest widespread penetration. A new ballistic missile threat has been declared for areas of Ukraine where air raid alerts are active. Ukraine's State Emergency Service (DSNS) has released footage showing the aftermath of the massive drone and ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, confirming fires in residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, as well as a non-residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. One man was rescued from a burning apartment and transferred to medics, and four people sought medical attention for stress reaction in Obolonskyi district. RBC-Ukraine reports that rescuers in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast, extinguished a fire in a private household caused by UAV debris, with two injured civilians receiving medical assistance. STERNENKO confirms 8 casualties in Kyiv as a result of the combined attack, detailing injuries in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and fires in non-residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi district, as well as two injured in Kyiv Oblast. ASTRA provides photographic evidence of the damage in Obolonskyi district. KMVA confirms a total of 15 injured in Kyiv across multiple districts (1 in Holosiivskyi, 7 in Solomianskyi, 2 in Dniprovskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi), indicating widespread civilian impact. Tsaplienko reports destruction in the "Blockbuster" shopping mall in Kyiv due to the attack. RBC-Ukraine reports 15 injured in Kyiv, including 7 in Solomianskyi, 1 in Holosiivskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi, and 2 in Dniprovskyi districts, confirming it was one of the "most massive attacks." Zelenskyy stated that 250 Shahed-type drones and 14 ballistic missiles targeted Ukraine, with casualties and damage in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro Oblasts. Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, Basurin o Glavnom, Voenkor Russkoy Vesny, Rybar) report that the Antonov plant in Kyiv was among the targets hit during the night attack, with Alex Parker Returns claiming "over 20 hits" and "good hits," and Rybar stating it was the "main target." They also publish dramatic photos of Kyiv on fire and sarcastically comment on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Shef Hayabusa also comments on the severe damage to Kyiv this night. KMVA provides information on available material aid and assistance for Kyiv residents affected by the strikes, including city programs and "eRecovery" applications. Podduvny also posted photos of the damage from the night attack on Kyiv, asserting that the Antonov plant was among the targets hit. Russian MoD reports that last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike by ground-based high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles against a Ukrainian defense industry enterprise that produces missile weapons and strike unmanned aerial vehicles, a radio reconnaissance center, and a position of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system. The goal of the strike has been achieved and all assigned targets have been engaged. "Archangel Spetsnaza" claims that due to the overwhelming number of "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) and false targets, Kyiv's air defense was quickly exhausted, leading to 10 confirmed hits on the Antonov plant, causing extensive fires and secondary detonations, confirming the plant as a major target for drone production. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews posted a video of a Patriot SAM system firing multiple missiles in rapid succession, which they claim is for emergency defense and is inefficient against single "Geraniums", suggesting a wasteful use of scarce missiles and a focus on media effect by Ukraine. Colonelcassad also claims the Antonov plant received around 20 hits. He also posts a video of a Patriot SAM firing multiple missiles, with commentary questioning its efficiency against single drones and suggesting it's for "media effect" while depleting scarce missiles. KMVA provides updated figures for Kyiv casualties (14 injured) and damage (9 residential buildings, 26 cars, 2 schools, polyclinic, post office, boiler room damaged). RBC-Ukraine reports over 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles detected in the Air Command "Center" zone, mostly targeting Kyiv, noting drones are changing routes and attacking from various directions and changing routes, and also attacking from higher altitudes, making them harder to suppress. RBC-Ukraine also reports a man attempted suicide in a school shelter in Kyiv during the attack and is now hospitalized.
  • Missile Strike on Izium: Russian military blogger NJP Razvedka claims a Russian ballistic missile launched from Voronezh struck Izium, describing it as a "delivery with a big greeting" and implying significant destruction, including turning areas into "ashes" and affecting "towers and radars." This is a Russian claim, not independently verified. Colonelcassad also reports Iskander-M and Geran/Gerbera strikes on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, in the early hours of May 24.
  • Russian Claims on Ukrainian Casualties and Equipment Loss: TASS, citing Ivan Bigma, Head of the press center for the "West" Group of Forces, reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 220 military personnel, six Starlink satellite communication stations, and two field ammunition depots in the last 24 hours due to the actions of the "West" Group of Forces. This indicates significant reported Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts. Russian MoD provides a detailed daily report on Ukrainian losses, stating total AFU losses amounted to more than 155 troops for the Sever Group of Forces, and up to 215 troops for the Zapad Group of Forces, and more than 280 troops for the Yug Group of Forces, along with significant equipment losses (tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, EW stations, ammunition depots). Voin DV reports the destruction of 1 tank, 1 SAU, 1 automotive vehicle, 3 pickups, 1 UAV control point, 2 Baba Yaga UAVs, and 1 antenna of a ground control station by the 29th Combined Arms Army.
  • Russian Strike on Odesa Port: Russian paratrooper channel, "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", claims two Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes on Odesa Marine Trade Port. The first hit a cargo management headquarters and a warehouse storing special equipment for uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs). The second struck a military reserve vessel parking area, resulting in at least 24 wounded or killed military personnel and severe damage to two supply vessels, "Krym" and "Titan," used as floating bases and radio platforms. Russian underground sources suggest the strike was accurate and hit the same location as a previous attack. However, "Odessa Resistance" claims no ships were present and portal cranes have been non-operational since the last strike, with only occasional marine guard boats observed. This highlights conflicting narratives and the difficulty in verifying real-time damage and casualty figures. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 4 missile strikes with 6 ballistic missiles damaging Odesa marine port infrastructure. Colonelcassad also reports Iskander-M strikes on Odesa and its outskirts, and Geran/Gerbera strikes on Illichevsk, Odesa Oblast.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: New "Shahed-like" "Batyar" drone (800 km range, 18 kg warhead) under production by DeepStrikeTech. An aviation expert notes Russia is modifying "Shahed" drones with a larger 90 kg warhead by reducing range. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces released a video showcasing FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel hiding under trees, in plantations, and in craters, demonstrating effective reconnaissance and precision targeting capabilities. STERNENKO posts a video of drones from his community "utilizing extra-chromosome individuals" (Russians). Tsaplienko states that Russia has surpassed Ukraine in FPV drone production and application, using new generation drones to cut deeper into Ukrainian logistics, with one Ukrainian serviceman noting that "the days of tanks are truly gone." The Ukrainian general staff promotes an advertisement for military contracts highlighting a 1M UAH bonus, 0% mortgage, and state-funded training. Alexander Vilkul reports that the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" received significant aid from Kryvyi Rih, including a pickup truck, 4 DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopters, 10 charging stations, and 6 laptops, totaling over 2.4 million UAH.
• Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Rostec will present new "IGLA" anti-drone cartridges (IGLA 30, 50, 100, Tracer 75) at MILEX-2025. Colonelcassad is crowdfunding for anti-drone training to improve Russian counter-UAV capabilities. Russian military bloggers warn about Ukrainian "relay drones" allowing FPV drones to operate beyond radio horizon, urging vigilance and masking for Russian troops.
• Russian EW Station Destruction Claim: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast and two UAV control points and one stationary EW station in Huliaipole, Marfopil, and Luhove areas. Voin DV reports that units of the 35th Combined Arms Army actively thwarted enemy rotation attempts near Zeleny Hai, Gulyaipole, and Fedorivka, destroying 3 vehicles (including a pickup truck) and eliminating up to 6 Ukrainian servicemen. Additionally, in the Gulyaipole and Myrny areas, artillery strikes destroyed 2 EW stations, 4 UAV launchers, and 2 temporary deployment points. Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized one electronic warfare station.
• Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs reported across Ukraine, including Mykolaiv/Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava (towards Myrhorod), and Chernihiv (towards Mena and Nizhyn) Oblasts. Updated data indicates ongoing Russian Shahed drone activity: a group on eastern Sumy heading west; groups on northern, southern, and central Sumy heading to Chernihiv Oblast; drones in Chernihiv heading to Kyiv Oblast; drones in northern Kyiv heading to Zhytomyr Oblast; drones in eastern Kyiv heading west; drones in northern Poltava heading west. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports a missile strike on Mykolaiv community, injuring a 34-year-old man and damaging a private house. FPV drones hit Mezheva community, causing car fires. КАB strikes on Novopavlivka community destroyed an administrative building, post office, and shop. A kamikaze drone hit Pokrovska community in Nikopol district, damaging solar panels. General Staff of ZSU reports 77 air strikes with 130 KABs dropped and 2997 kamikaze drones used against Ukrainian positions and settlements over the past day, with aviation strikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia. New groups of Shahed drones reported heading from eastern Dnipropetrovsk to Kharkiv Oblast (towards Kharkiv city and Pavlohrad), from central Kharkiv Oblast to Kharkiv city, and multiple UAV groups from southern Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts (including Myrhorod and Poltava city). New groups from Belgorod Oblast are targeting Kharkiv Oblast, and from the south towards Donetsk Oblast. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, likely due to missile or drone activity. Ballistic missile threats from the east, specifically from Bryansk, have been issued and then cleared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other eastern regions. Drone activity is also reported in Poltava, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with some groups moving towards Lubny and Myrhorod. Russian tactical aviation activity is noted on the southeastern direction, posing a threat of aviation weapons for frontline regions. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes lists numerous locations across Ukraine, including western regions (Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr), indicating a broader target set and extensive use of Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. This includes strikes on railway infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine reports that more than 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles, mostly targeting Kyiv, were detected in the zone of responsibility of Air Command "Center" during the night attack. Russian forces reportedly attacked Kyiv from various directions, changing routes, making it harder for EW systems to suppress drones, as Russia is improving their capabilities. Russian drones are also increasingly attacking from higher altitudes (2km+), complicating their neutralization.
• Russian Domestic Drone Attacks: Increased drone attacks on Moscow, with Mayor Sobyanin reporting 26 repelled drones. Russian MoD claims 77 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions (including 9 over Moscow region) between May 20-23. Two people injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. Three UAVs destroyed in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. Rybar reports 247 UAVs destroyed over Russian rear and border regions, causing minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast. Russian air defense systems shot down 1,177 fixed-wing UAVs between May 20-23 (20:00 to 08:00 MSK), with 788 of them outside the special military operation zone, indicating a substantial and widespread Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian territory. A new air raid alert has been declared for Lipetsk Oblast, indicating further Ukrainian aerial activity targeting Russian territory. In Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, residents reported explosions and observed helicopters in the sky, with local authorities warning of a UAV threat to Yelets and several surrounding districts. Ukrainian military sources report at least 5 UAVs falling on the industrial zone of PAO "Energiya" in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire in one of the production workshops, confirming a repeat attack on the facility. ASTRA confirms the repeated attack on PAO "Energiya" in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, with multiple explosions and renewed "Threat of UAV Attack" status, noting the plant's specialization in chemical sources of current, including for UAVs, aviation, and fleet. STERNENKO reports a repeat attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and an attack on the NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, with claims of a damaged natural gas pipeline. Russian sources claim 94 UAVs were shot down across 6 oblasts. STERNENKO confirms repeat attack on "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and attack on NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, with claims of damaged natural gas pipeline. Total of 94 UAVs shot down across 6 oblasts claimed by Russia. Russian air defense claims to have downed four more Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky Airport (Moscow region) have been lifted, then reinstated. Vnukovo Airport has also introduced temporary restrictions. Domodedovo Airport has also implemented temporary flight restrictions. TASS reports air defense is repelling the 15th drone attack on Tula Oblast and a strike by six UAVs on Moscow. ASTRA confirms six more drones shot down over Moscow.
• Black Sea & Azov Sea Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. Three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction). As of May 24, 03:17 UTC, Ukrainian Naval Forces report 2 Russian Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea with a total salvo capacity of up to 12 missiles. The Azov Sea remains clear of enemy ships. NATO activity in the Baltic Sea has increased, with a French reconnaissance vessel and 13 other NATO warships now present, as detailed by Russian sources. Basurin reports that two Russian Air Force planes are suspected of violating Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland in the eastern Baltic, prompting an investigation by Finnish border guards.

Strategic Projections

The strategic picture remains one of high-intensity conflict with continued Russian efforts to expand territorial control, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where reported advances near Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction are significant. Russian forces are sustaining their advances, and the General Staff of ZSU reports heavy fighting and numerous attacks across multiple sectors, especially Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions. Russia's objective of creating a "buffer zone" in border regions is evident through sustained artillery and drone activity in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, as well as ongoing ground assaults in Kursk Oblast. Russian statements from Volodin threatening a "harsh response" to Ukrainian attacks highlight heightened tensions and a potential for further escalation in cross-border strikes. The reported crash of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Oryol Oblast while intercepting drones suggests the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in disrupting Russian operations and infrastructure. The claimed liberation of Radkovka by Russia, if verified, would represent another tactical gain. The continued observation of the devastated Marinka underscores the scale of destruction in the conflict zones. Russian forces are also striking Ukrainian strongpoints in Kherson Oblast using UAVs. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka by Russian forces suggests persistent Russian efforts to target Ukrainian logistics and personnel in rear areas. ISW map updates confirming Ukrainian advances near Toretsk but Russian pushes near Novopavlivka and Kurakhove indicate a dynamic and contested front. New reports confirm ongoing Russian missile, FPV drone, MLRS, and artillery strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing civilian casualties and significant damage to residential and administrative buildings. This highlights the sustained pressure on civilian infrastructure. The Russian claim of taking Troitske and Bogdanovka on the Pokrovsk direction, if verified, indicates continued deep pushes into Ukrainian territory. The re-confirmation of the liberation of Volnoye Pole by a Russian serviceman adds credibility to earlier claims. The claimed Russian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from Ukrainian HIMARS strike, if verified, underscore the cross-border nature of the conflict and its civilian impact. General Cavoli's assessment that Russia has enough "meat" and "iron" to continue the war for at least two more years at current rates indicates a prolonged conflict and highlights the need for long-term strategic planning for Ukraine and its allies. Ukrainian General Staff reporting 202 combat engagements and high numbers of air strikes and drone usage indicates an extremely intense and persistent offensive by Russian forces across multiple sectors. The destruction of a Russian truck in Kherson Oblast rear areas highlights Ukraine's continued ability to conduct successful deep strikes against Russian logistics. Russian sources claim to have "liberated" Nova Poltavka, indicating a strategic push to cut off Ukrainian groupings. WarGonzo's analysis of the Sumy direction, suggesting Ukrainian feints, indicates a complex tactical environment. Russian military bloggers' reports of the Antonov plant in Kyiv being targeted in the recent mass strike, combined with photographic evidence of Kyiv on fire, indicate a high-priority effort by Russia to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial capabilities and inflict widespread damage on the capital. The evacuation of civilians near the attacked "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, though unconfirmed by official sources, suggests a potentially severe incident or fear of one, indicating the strategic impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian industrial infrastructure and civilian safety. Russian efforts to establish railway projects in Africa suggest a long-term strategic pivot to secure resources and geopolitical influence beyond the immediate conflict zone. The official confirmation by the Russian Ministry of Defense of the liberation of Loknya, Stupochki, and Otradnoye indicates consolidated and officially recognized territorial gains for Russia. The FPV-drone footage showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol suggests potential fratricide or a complex and chaotic battlefield environment. Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric following Ukrainian drone attacks signals a continued hardline stance and potential for further Russian escalation, with a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station". The reported suspicion of Russian Air Force planes violating Finnish airspace suggests continued probing of NATO's new eastern flank, with potential for escalation in the Baltic region. Russian MoD's official strike report confirms targeting of a Ukrainian defense industry enterprise (missile/UAV production), a radio reconnaissance center, and a position of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system, indicating a clear strategic intent to degrade Ukrainian military capabilities and Western-supplied air defense. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews's commentary on the Patriot SAM system's rapid missile expenditure during the Kyiv attack suggests a Russian narrative to question the efficiency and sustainability of Western air defense systems provided to Ukraine, potentially impacting future aid discussions. Colonelcassad's report on the bridge strike in Mogritsa suggests continued Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian logistics and secure buffer zones. Kazakhstan's efforts to nationalize historical narratives related to Victory Day signal a strategic move to decouple from Russia's historical influence in Central Asia. The demonstration of Belarus's "Sky-Truck" unmanned helicopter indicates a growing regional drone production capability that could have future military implications.

Ukraine continues to demonstrate strong asymmetric capabilities through deep strikes targeting Russian EW systems and air defenses (Kinburn Spit, Tavria direction, Kursk Oblast EW system), and effective FPV drone operations against Russian ground forces and logistics. The new "Batyar" drone represents a key development in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, while Russian modifications to "Shahed" drones (larger warheads, reduced range) and ballistic missiles (radar traps, maneuvering) indicate an adaptation to inflict more localized damage and evade air defense. Ukrainian military units are being recognized for their combat effectiveness through a new "combat points" system, highlighting areas of successful engagement and providing a framework for future support prioritization. Ukrainian air defense's 5000th drone kill against an "Orlan-10" demonstrates sustained air defense effectiveness despite increased Russian reconnaissance and AI-controlled drone usage. The successful strike on the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant demonstrates Ukraine's capability to target key military-industrial facilities deep within Russia. The intensified drone attacks on Moscow and Tula highlight Ukraine's persistent capability to inflict costs on Russian territory. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, exemplified by the attack on the Korovyaki bridge, indicate a continued effort to disrupt Russian logistics and military movements in border regions, aiming to relieve pressure on the front lines. The video release on Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov underscores Ukrainian efforts to maintain morale and highlight resilience. The ongoing mass drone and rocket strikes on Kyiv highlight a persistent and significant aerial threat to the capital, aimed at inflicting damage and terror. Russian sources are engaging in information warfare by mocking the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense during these attacks. The renewed ballistic missile threat to Ukrainian regions under air alarm indicates a continued, high-level threat from Russian precision strikes. A new ballistic missile strike is claimed by Russian military bloggers to have hit Izium from Voronezh, accompanied by explicit propaganda mocking Ukrainian air defenses, suggesting continued Russian efforts to target Ukrainian rear areas and degrade morale through information warfare. The DSNS report on the aftermath of the Kyiv attacks provides concrete details of damage to residential and non-residential buildings, and civilian injuries, reinforcing the scale of the threat. The Russian report of over 220 Ukrainian military casualties, 6 Starlink losses, and 2 ammunition depots destroyed by the "West" Group of Forces, if verified, could impact Ukraine's operational capabilities and communication. Continued Ukrainian aerial activity targeting Russian territory, with new reports of explosions and helicopter activity in Lipetsk Oblast, indicates sustained and possibly expanded deep strike operations, including repeat attacks on key industrial facilities like PAO "Energiya" in Yelets. The presence of 2 Russian Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea with a total salvo capacity of up to 12 missiles increases the immediate missile threat to Ukrainian coastal and southern regions. The high number of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones used in the past day, indicating a sustained and high-intensity aerial assault. Ukrainian Air Force data on a massive combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv confirms Russia's evolving tactics and the significant scale of the aerial threat. The effectiveness of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction indicates their adaptation to Ukrainian UAV use. Russian claims of comprehensive night strikes targeting military-industrial complex enterprises, arms storage sites, and Ukrainian military equipment parking areas in Odesa, Kyiv, Obukhiv, Boryspil, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, and Zaporizhzhia, with reserves for Kupiansk near Izium also targeted. The increased Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory, including the repeat attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets and the strike on the "Azot" chemical enterprise in Tula, indicate a broadening of Ukraine's deep strike targeting to include industrial facilities related to Russian military production and infrastructure. Ukrainian GUR's documentation of over 150 cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war have been documented, with direct orders given to kill prisoners. This is a critical development that profoundly impacts the ethical and psychological dimensions of the conflict, potentially affecting Ukrainian forces' willingness to surrender. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy's detailed report on Russian losses in their area indicates significant success in degrading Russian personnel and equipment, including critical air defense systems and armored vehicles. Tsaplienko's report on Russia surpassing Ukraine in FPV drone production and application, and The Times' assessment that FPV drones are increasingly cutting off Ukrainian logistics, highlights a critical emerging challenge for Ukrainian forces, potentially necessitating a reassessment of defense tactics, particularly for armored vehicles. Zelenskyy's recent address confirms the scale of the combined attacks and reinforces the need for increased international pressure and sanctions. Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" 's negative assessment of the "Batyar" drone and its comparison to Russian "Gerans" indicates an ongoing information warfare effort to downplay Ukrainian technological advancements. Colonelcassad's detailed technical assessment of the "Batyar" drone, including potential for Starlink and OLS, suggests Russian awareness of its evolving capabilities. The significant aid provided to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" from Kryvyi Rih underscores robust local support for Ukrainian military units. Russian training for pontoon deployment in Kherson Oblast suggests a potential future river crossing attempt, requiring close monitoring and counter-planning. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including Western regions, indicates a broader and more intensive Russian aerial campaign that will strain Ukrainian air defenses and target logistics. The success of the 63rd Brigade's mobile workshop fundraiser highlights the ongoing reliance on and effectiveness of volunteer support for Ukrainian military logistics.

The ongoing prisoner exchange is a critical humanitarian achievement, demonstrating a limited but important channel for cooperation between the belligerents. The return of civilians to Russia, as confirmed by TASS, adds a new dimension to these exchanges, suggesting a broader scope beyond military personnel. However, Russian sources also claim approximately 13,000 Ukrainian political prisoners and civilian captives remain, indicating a contentious information space around the exchanges. However, the reported internal issues within the Russian military regarding the treatment of injured personnel, the reliance of "elite" units on crowdfunding for essential equipment (Starlink, Mavic drones, armored vehicle components), and the active crowdfunding for basic equipment on the Kursk front underscore underlying logistical and personnel management challenges. The re-emergence of serious criminal issues involving former combatants, such as the Wagner fighter's murder conviction and railway sabotage, poses a long-term internal security challenge for Russia. The changes in Russian school textbooks to remove mentions of Western countries and Ukraine, the reported "Russification" efforts in occupied Mariupol, and Bastrykin's calls for traditional values in the constitution further indicate a strategic shift towards isolating the population from Western influence and rewriting history to align with current geopolitical objectives. The assassination of Portnov adds a layer of political intrigue and highlights potential extrajudicial actions. The allegation of corruption in Ukrainian fortification construction is a critical vulnerability that could undermine trust and support. The sentencing of two Novosibirsk residents for railway sabotage underscores Russian efforts to crack down on internal dissent and perceived threats to critical infrastructure, while also revealing the ongoing internal security challenges and the use of individuals, including minors, for subversive acts. The reported individual who desecrated a cross and cut a cat, showing no consequences, further highlights a pattern of escalating abnormal behavior and lack of consequences within Russia. Lavrov's statement questioning President Zelenskyy's legitimacy represents a direct and aggressive information warfare tactic by Russia, aiming to undermine the Ukrainian government's authority internationally and domestically, particularly as Zelenskyy's term ends. The reported civilian casualties in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian strikes underscore the direct humanitarian cost of the conflict. Ukrainian military commemorations and recognition of soldier resilience contribute to morale. Ukrainian crowdfunding efforts for military units highlight ongoing material needs not fully covered by state support. The renewed accusation of internal corruption in Ukrainian fortification construction by a military blogger emphasizes persistent vulnerability and a potential for decreased trust and effectiveness. The satirical video from Butusov Plus regarding Brazilian volunteers indicates active Ukrainian information warfare, leveraging foreign involvement and mocking Russian military fatalities. Butusov Plus also launches a highly critical narrative on returned Russian POWs, portraying them as a criminal element. Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange indicates a deliberate effort to control narratives around POW treatment. The Financial Times report on alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK points to an escalation in hybrid warfare and potential state-sponsored actions on foreign soil. Alex Parker Returns' sarcastic comments on Kyiv's air defense after the attack suggests ongoing Russian information warfare tactics to undermine Ukrainian morale. The extensive civilian casualties and damage in Kyiv, including the shopping mall hit, underscore the immediate and devastating humanitarian impact of large-scale, combined aerial assaults on urban centers. The crowdfunding efforts for the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment and for anti-drone training by Colonelcassad underscore the continued reliance of Russian military units on public donations for essential equipment and training, indicating systemic logistical challenges. The recent report of a girl killed and four children injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack highlights the continued civilian toll of the conflict, particularly for children, and provides fodder for Russian information campaigns. The ongoing reports of forced mobilization and civilian resistance in Ukraine highlight a growing internal social challenge that could impact future force generation. The perceived effectiveness of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's tactic on migration might indicate a possible shift in European public opinion away from populist, potentially pro-Russian, parties. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War initiating public discussions on documenting crimes against Ukrainian POWs, supporting families, and media coverage, suggests a proactive Ukrainian approach to addressing this critical issue and leveraging it for international advocacy. The reports of capital flight from Russia through real estate purchases in the UAE indicate continued economic instability and a lack of confidence among some segments of the Russian population. Russian military bloggers promoting Thai real estate for investment signals continued economic concerns and capital flight. The arrest of three individuals in Podmoskovie for spreading "provocative videos" suggests a crackdown on internal dissent and an attempt to control the information space within Russia. The KMVA's efforts to provide material aid and compensation to Kyiv residents highlight the city's robust social support mechanisms despite the ongoing attacks. The video of Donetsk schoolchildren leaving for adult life symbolically represents a continued human cost and the potential for future mobilization or social impact in occupied territories. The explosion in a Donetsk apartment due to a gas leak, though likely accidental, highlights the fragility of civilian infrastructure in the conflict zone. The Cyberpolice's active engagement in a career festival promoting cybersecurity tools indicates a proactive effort by Ukraine to strengthen its digital defense capabilities and civilian awareness. The planned construction of a 10-story temple in St. Petersburg to honor war participants signifies Russia's intent to ideologically integrate the war into its national identity and reinforce patriotism. The signing of a new law to implement an experiment on additional control and accounting mechanisms for foreign citizens arriving in Moscow and Moscow Oblast without visas, starting September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2029. This expands regional powers for attracting foreign labor. Dmitry Medvedev made strong, aggressive statements regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, particularly before Victory Day, emphasizing a "harsh response" and calling for the "destruction of vile bloodsucking parasites." He also makes a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station" (UVB-76) in a post about the latest events around Ukraine. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of a multi-story building in Donetsk, with a child also among the affected, confirming casualties in the gas explosion incident. TASS reports that speaker Volodin sent a bill to the State Duma committee on increasing pregnancy and maternity benefits for students, with an average benefit of 90,202 rubles, exceeding the scholarship amount. MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts reports that Putin signed a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, allowing debt write-off from 25,000 to 1 million rubles without court intervention upon presentation of a certificate. ASTRA reports that Ekaterina Mizulina has filed a lawsuit against Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Davankov, accusing him of slander and false denunciation, after he questioned the spending of 200 million rubles by her organization. TASS reports snow falling in Ust-Kamchatsky district on Kamchatka (also in Khanty-Mansiysk). TASS reports a bill will be introduced in the State Duma to prohibit depicting churches without crosses. Igor Strelkov's channels are crowdfunding for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts for Russian military units. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) posted images and video of a military cadet corps graduation ceremony, emphasizing patriotism and combat traditions. Kotsnews shares a historical anecdote about a "Komsomolskaya Pravda" special correspondent's dangerous experience in Chechnya, linking it to the newspaper's 100th anniversary. Basurin o Glavnom attempts to twist the Washington shooting incident into an anti-Israeli and anti-Western narrative, using it to justify Russian actions in Ukraine, a clear example of opportunistic information warfare. * Ukrainian Military Commemoration: The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" was opened near the Arch of Freedom of the Ukrainian People in Kyiv on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizing resistance and sacrifice and commemorating the historical significance of Ukrainian marine infantry. Additionally, May 23 is commemorated as the day Yevhen Konovalets, head of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, was killed by Soviet special services in Rotterdam. A video was released highlighting Hero of Ukraine Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov's experience, focusing on his combat journey, severe injury (loss of arm), and rescue. * Ukrainian Cybersecurity Report: Ukrainian State Service of Special Communications, in collaboration with ICE Task Force, published an English-language report "War and Cyber: Three Years of Struggle and Lessons for Global Security," analyzing cyber warfare trends against Ukraine since 2022 and offering recommendations for international cyber defense. Cyberpolice is participating in a career festival, demonstrating digital tools, including mobile device information extraction, data recovery from flash drives, OSINT via a game, and workshops on cyber tools, also promoting the "Brama" project for digital literacy. * Andriy Portnov Assassination: Former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov was assassinated in Madrid, Spain, widely reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, fueling intense information warfare and highlighting potential extrajudicial actions. Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that French leadership arrested Pavel Durov to influence elections in Romania, implying that French President Macron used "barbaric methods" to control elections. Colonelcassad comments on Durov's claims about French external intelligence influencing Romanian elections, framing it as direct external influence on "elections." * Alleged Ukrainian Fortification Corruption: A new allegation of internal corruption within Ukraine regarding fortification construction has emerged. Shef Hayabusa implies renewed allegations of internal corruption in Ukraine regarding fortification construction, stating that those who "steal" communicate in Ukrainian and wear embroidered shirts but are "rotten inside." Shef Hayabusa also crowdfunds for car repairs. * Sumi Oblast Civilian Casualty: A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, Sumy Oblast, and hospitalized. Over a dozen houses in the community were also damaged or destroyed. * Kyiv Civilian Impact: Fire incidents on the first and last floors of a residential multi-story building in Kyiv's Dnipro district were reported as a result of the ongoing attack. DSNS (State Emergency Service of Ukraine) has released footage showing the aftermath of the massive drone and ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, confirming fires in residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and a non-residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. One man was rescued from a burning apartment, and four people sought medical attention for stress reaction in Obolonskyi district. RBC-Ukraine reports that rescuers in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast, extinguished a fire in a private household caused by UAV debris, with two injured civilians receiving medical assistance. STERNENKO confirms 8 casualties in Kyiv as a result of the combined attack, detailing injuries in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and fires in non-residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi district, as well as two injured in Kyiv Oblast. ASTRA provides photographic evidence of the damage in Obolonskyi district. The KMVA reports a total of 15 injured in Kyiv across multiple districts (1 in Holosiivskyi, 7 in Solomianskyi, 2 in Dniprovskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi), indicating widespread civilian impact. Tsaplienko reports destruction in the "Blockbuster" shopping mall in Kyiv due to the attack. RBC-Ukraine reports 15 injured in Kyiv, including 7 in Solomianskyi, 1 in Holosiivskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi, and 2 in Dniprovskyi districts, confirming it was one of the "most massive attacks." Zelenskyy stated that 250 Shahed-type drones and 14 ballistic missiles targeted Ukraine, with casualties and damage in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro Oblasts. Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, Basurin o Glavnom, Voenkor Russkoy Vesny, Rybar) report that the Antonov plant in Kyiv was among the targets hit during the night attack, with Alex Parker Returns claiming "over 20 hits" and "good hits," and Rybar stating it was the "main target." They also publish dramatic photos of Kyiv on fire and sarcastically comment on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Shef Hayabusa also comments on the severe damage to Kyiv this night. KMVA provides information on available material aid and assistance for Kyiv residents affected by the strikes, including city programs and "eRecovery" applications. Podduvny also posted photos of the damage from the night attack on Kyiv, asserting that the Antonov plant was among the targets hit. The KMVA provides an updated count of 14 injured in Kyiv, less than previously reported, with 9 damaged residential buildings, 26 damaged cars, 2 schools, a polyclinic, a post office, and a boiler room damaged. RBC-Ukraine reports that over 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles were detected in the Air Command "Center" zone of responsibility, mostly targeting Kyiv, with drones attacking from various directions and changing routes, and also attacking from higher altitudes, making them harder to suppress. RBC-Ukraine also reports a man attempted suicide in a school shelter in Kyiv during the attack and is now hospitalized. * Russian Historical Commemoration: Basurin provides a historical account and photos of the cruiser "Aurora," commemorating its launch and its role in Russian naval and revolutionary history. This is part of Russian efforts to reinforce national identity and historical narratives. Gleb Nikitin posted a video celebrating the 5th anniversary of the Corporate University of the Nizhny Novgorod Regional Government, highlighting a regional development and governance initiative. * Ukrainian Civilian Casualties (Kharkiv Oblast): Six settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck. 4 fatalities (two 60-year-old men in Kupiansk, a 33-year-old woman in Chuhuiv, a 78-year-old woman in Vilkhuvatka). 7 injured civilians (49-year-old man in Kupiansk, 58-year-old man and 67-year-old woman in Chuhuiv, 45 and 47-year-old men in Staryi Saltiv, 61 and 80-year-old women in Vilkhuvatka). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure including 10 private homes, communal enterprise buildings, vehicles, warehouses, and an autocrane. The Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine reports a 77-year-old woman killed and a 61-year-old woman wounded by Russian aviation strikes on Vilkhuvatka, Kupiansk district. * Ukrainian Military Morale/Commemoration: "OTU Kharkiv" highlights a Ukrainian soldier "Rudik" from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, a sergeant of material supply, who served 40 days defending Klishchiivka near Bakhmut, was wounded by a sniper during rotation, but did not break. This story emphasizes resilience and commitment. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" awarded state and Ministry of Defense honors to soldiers, sergeants, and officers for bravery and effectiveness, including "Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky," "For Courage," and "Iron Cross," boosting morale. Ukrainian General Staff promotes bonuses for military contracts (1M UAH, 0% mortgage, state-funded training) to attract new recruits. * Ukrainian POW Search: A video shows families of missing soldiers bringing photos to prisoner exchanges, seeking information from released POWs, seeking information from released POWs, highlighting the emotional toll and ongoing search for missing personnel. Butusov Plus posts a satirical video showing Russian soldiers observing wild pigs consuming the bodies of their deceased comrades, aiming to demoralize and expose the grim realities of the war from a Ukrainian perspective. Ukrainian GUR states that over 150 cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war have been documented, with direct orders given to kill prisoners. This trend is confirmed by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates the GUR finding, quoting the UN that such executions would not occur without orders or consent from the highest military command, implying presidential involvement. * Zaporizhzhia Oblast Civilian Casualty: The Russian-appointed governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported that a girl was killed and four children (aged 1, 8, 9, 10) were injured in a Ukrainian "terrorist attack" on a civilian vehicle in Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian source in Zaporizhzhia reports the continued operation of safe in-person learning for children with special educational needs in a bomb shelter at a special boarding school, including corrective and medical services. * Ukrainian Mobilization Resistance: Reports of forced mobilization in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Lviv, with civilian resistance, including a woman in Lviv defending her husband from the TCC, and public protests against detentions in residential areas. * German Political Shift: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party (CDU/CSU) gained in polls, while the pro-Russian AfD lost ground, suggesting that Chancellor Friedrich Merz's tactic of addressing illegal migration has been effective in stemming support for populist parties. Tsaplienko highlights this as Chancellor Friedrich Merz pulling ahead of the pro-Russian "AfD" due to his tactics on illegal migration, increasing the CDU/CSU's lead. * Donetsk City Explosion: An explosion occurred in a multi-story building in Donetsk, reportedly due to a gas leak in an apartment. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of the building, with a child also among the affected, confirming casualties. * Russian Internal Affairs: TASS reports the death of 85-year-old science fiction writer Yuri Nikitin, an unrelated internal event.

• International Relations and Economic Shifts:
  • Trump's Stance on EU Tariffs: Donald Trump stated he does not intend to reconsider the 50% import tariff on EU goods, which will take effect June 1, but confirmed willingness to negotiate if EU companies build factories in the US. This reiterates his protectionist stance.
  • US Missile Defense System: Donald Trump announced that the US has selected the architecture for a new "Golden Dome" missile defense system, projected to cost $175 billion over three years ($25 billion next year). It aims to integrate next-generation land, sea, and space technologies, with Canada expressing interest. The US Air Force acknowledges it's still conceptual. Russian analysis expresses skepticism about the feasibility and cost, given delays in other US ICBM programs and a projected increase in Chinese and Iranian ICBM arsenals by 2035.
  • Russian Political Statements: Volodin states that "euroofficials and their puppets in Ukraine are trying to disrupt renewed US-mediated negotiations." He further threatened an "adequate and harsh response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities" following drone attacks on Kyiv. Dmitry Medvedev made strong, aggressive statements regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, particularly before Victory Day, emphasizing a "harsh response" and calling for the "destruction of vile bloodsucking parasites." He also makes a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station" (UVB-76) in a post about the latest events around Ukraine.
  • EU Military Funding: EU Ambassadors approved a plan for the militarization of Europe with €150 billion. Colonelcassad reports that this is part of a larger €800 billion ReArm Europe program, with focus on procurement of US equipment and concerns about production capacity.
  • Russia-US Prisoner Exchange Talks: Dmitry Peskov confirmed ongoing discussions on prisoner exchange with the US ("9 for 9" contact).
  • Russia-Vatican Relations: Peskov mentioned the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that a meeting in the Vatican on the Ukrainian issue is "unrealistic," indicating Russia's continued rejection of a mediated peace process outside its own terms.
  • Poland-Ukraine Relations: President Zelenskyy and Polish PM Donald Tusk discussed presidential elections, peace steps, and EU membership clusters, emphasizing continued pressure on Russia. Poland remains a crucial partner for Ukraine's security and Euro-integration.
  • Belarusian Action Against Kalinoŭski Regiment: Belarusian authorities initiated criminal proceedings against and declared wanted 125 individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. Five commanders sentenced in absentia to 12-20 years.
  • Foreign Fighter Involvement: Russian sources report a Serbian volunteer from "Ural" battalion, Aleksandar Kubatovic, claiming to be a regular Russian Army serviceman, highlighting legal challenges for foreign fighters.
  • Defender 25 Exercise: US Army Europe and Africa Command is conducting Defender 25, a series of three multinational exercises involving approximately 28,000 personnel from 29 nations across Europe, demonstrating rapid deployment and interoperability.
  • Poland's Patriot Missile Request: Poland has formally requested a batch of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for its Patriot systems from the US, valued at $5.8 billion.
  • Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Export: Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that the first foreign customer of the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter jet will begin its operation in 2025.
  • Ukraine's Stance on Peace Memorandum: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Tykhyy states an expected Russian memorandum on a potential truce will be a "test for Russia" to show genuine intentions, warning against "maximalist demands" and noting Russia's delaying tactics.
  • Russia Questions Ukrainian Presidential Legitimacy: Lavrov stated that the question of President Zelenskyy's legitimacy will be of "fundamental importance." This is a significant development in Russia's information warfare, designed to undermine the Ukrainian government's authority and international standing. General Cavoli, US Forces Europe Commander, states that Russia has enough "meat" and "iron" to continue the war for at least two more years at current rates of attrition.
  • G7 Sanctions Threat: G7 nations have threatened Russia with stricter sanctions if it does not cease fire in Ukraine, indicating sustained international pressure.
  • Trump to Attend G7 Summit: Donald Trump is confirmed to attend the G7 summit in Canada from June 15-17, where support for Ukraine will be a key topic. This indicates continued high-level diplomatic engagement involving the US, even with Trump's stated reservations about intervention.
  • Russia's African Railway Projects: Rybar reports that Russian Railways (RZD) is exploring opportunities to build and modernize railway infrastructure in Africa, particularly in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and South Africa, signaling a geopolitical and economic expansion into the continent. Russian military bloggers are also promoting real estate investment opportunities in Thailand for Russians, citing favorable economic conditions and the potential for currency-stable income. A Russian NGO prepared materials on the danger of Russian comics to the enemy, and Two Mayors states this indicates the activity is important and needed. A new temple dedicated to participants of the war with Ukraine, with a height of a 10-story building, will be built in St. Petersburg. Russian President Putin signed a law to implement an experiment on additional control and accounting mechanisms for foreign citizens arriving in Moscow and Moscow Oblast without visas, starting September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2029. This expands regional powers for attracting foreign labor. TASS reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will discuss Ukrainian settlement issues in Moscow and reiterate Ankara's readiness to mediate peace talks.
  • Finland-Russia Airspace: Finland's Ministry of Defense reports that two Russian Air Force planes are suspected of violating Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland in the eastern Baltic, prompting an investigation by Finnish border guards. This incident suggests potential Russian probing of NATO's new eastern flank.
  • Belarusian Drone Development: Belarusian enterprise "KB Unmanned Helicopters" showcased the "Sky-Truck" unmanned helicopter at MILEX-2025, with a 500 kg payload capacity, 360-480 km range, and speeds of 140-180 km/h, with a preliminary order for 20 units. This indicates Belarus's growing indigenous drone production capabilities, potentially for military or dual-use purposes.
  • Kazakhstan's Shifting Narrative: Rybar reports that Kazakh authorities are systematically combating Russian symbols of Victory Day (e.g., "georgievskaya lentochka," Soviet red flag), promoting their own "Victory Ribbon" and "Batyrlarga tagzym" (Bow to Heroes) alternative events. This indicates a deliberate effort to nationalize historical narratives and gradually decouple from the common historical past with Russia, potentially impacting Russia's influence in Central Asia.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Chasov Yar Direction: Russian T-90M "Proryv" tank crews of the Ivanovo and Kostroma airborne forces are reported destroying Ukrainian strongholds and personnel near Chasov Yar. Russian forces are actively delivering ammunition and provisions to their positions. Russian military expert claimed Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen under Chasov Yar. Battles continue on several sections within Chasov Yar's urban area, with many recently liberated territories effectively becoming a "grey zone" due to high drone activity. Russian MoD also officially confirmed the liberation of Stupochki under Chasov Yar.
  • Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces are broadly advancing, with the 150th Motor Rifle Division moving towards Popovy Yar and clearing Romanovka and Old Nikolaevka. They also advanced towards Shevchenko Pervoye, securing strongholds and covering 12.5 sq km. Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction, with 6 ongoing. Russian special forces "AKHMAT" are working on enemy strongholds at night. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing. Russian forces, supported by ZALA Z-16 reconnaissance drones, destroyed Ukrainian 117th Brigade storage facilities in the Zoloty Kolodyaz area. Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" claims the 80th Guards Tank Regiment, Central Group of Forces, has "cleared" Troitske and Bogdanovka. Russian Ministry of Defense also reported destroying a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Shevchenko area. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is currently crowdfunding for equipment. Russian Colonelcassad posts video confirming the liberation of Bogdanovka by Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction, with Russian flags raised. The commander of the Ukrainian 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade was reportedly relieved of duty due to a unit withdrawal under threat of encirclement. Russian FPV drone operators claim to have disrupted Ukrainian command and control in the Konstantinovka area by destroying several antennas. Russian sources also claim to have "liberated" Nova Poltavka. Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian logistics on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified" by FABs and FPV drones, threatening a rapid collapse of urban defenses. Russian FAB-250 with UMPK module hit a residential area in Konstantinovka, resulting in 1 civilian fatality and 3 injuries, alongside damage to 6 private households, a car, and utility lines. A Russian "Giatsint-S" self-propelled artillery system destroyed a Ukrainian mortar in Krasnoarmeysk direction. FPV-drone footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol, implying potential friendly fire or misidentification. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports that south of Zorya, from Pravdovka, Russian forces advanced on a broad flank and are working on enemy strongholds. Near Yablonovka, they are storming with the prospect of reaching the reservoir and encircling the enemy. From Novopaltavka, they advanced 2.5 km with forest belts and two enemy strongholds, disrupting the offensive on Druzhkivka.
  • Otradnoye/Komar Direction (Southern Donetsk): Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade claims liberation of Otradnoye, covering over 10 sq km and consolidating positions towards Komar. They claim to have repelled 4 Ukrainian counterattacks (2 with MaxxPro BMMs destroyed) and advanced up to 1 km in depth and along the front. Clearing operations continue in Zelenoye Pole. Russian "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Ukrainian General Staff reports 9 ongoing battles in the Novopavlivka direction, including towards Otradne. The liberation of Bogatyr, a fortified area, is confirmed. "Voyenkor Kotenok" reports that after taking Otradne, units of the "Vostok" Group continued to advance towards Komar, establishing positions west of it and in the southern part of the enemy's defensive line, and are engaged in battles at the southeastern outskirts of Komar. North of Otradne, battles are ongoing for forest belts on the southern bank of the Volchya River. "Voin DV" posts exclusive footage of destroyed Ukrainian automotive equipment during the liberation of Otradnoye. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 30 attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces on the Novopavlivka direction near Novopil, Bahatyr, Vilne Pole, and Zeleny Pole, including 11 unsuccessful attacks on Novosilka involving tanks and armored vehicles. Russian MoD officially confirmed the liberation of Otradnoye, specifying that the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Vostok Group of Forces liberated the settlement, advanced quickly, and cleared about 200 buildings, setting up Russian flags.
  • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk direction): Russian 103rd Regiment is advancing beyond Dzerzhinsk, reportedly burning Ukrainian infantry and positions, utilizing FPV drones to destroy enemy concentrations. Ukrainian General Staff reports 20 attacks in the Toretsk direction, 18 repelled, with battles ongoing. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is reportedly transitioning into a "grey zone." Russian FPV drone operators recorded successful strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). Olexiy Biloshitsky reports Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on the Toretsk direction. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports ongoing battles for forest belts northwest of Druzhba, with no stable control by either side.
  • Volnoye Pole (South Donetsk Direction): Russian Vostok Group's 5th Combined Arms Army assault detachment successfully captured a well-fortified Ukrainian stronghold. A Russian serviceman from the "Vostok" Group confirms direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole, including assaulting Ukrainian fortifications. Sniper teams of the 36th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) are operating on the Shakhtyorsk direction. A Russian serviceman from the "Vostok" Group with callsign "Sapogi" confirmed direct participation in the liberation of Volnoye Pole.
  • General Donetsk: Russian artillery and FPV drones are actively striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian General Staff reports 202 combat engagements over the past day, with Russian forces conducting 5837 shellings and 130 MLRS strikes. General Staff of ZSU posts photos of experienced tank crews training.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 out of 3 attacks repelled; battle continues near Kurdyumivka and towards Bila Hora.
  • Verkhnekamenskoye (Seversk direction): Rybar reports Russian forces fighting on the western outskirts. Russian sources claim advances of 1.5 km into the residential area of Verkhnokamyanske and occupation of new positions in the western part. Russian "Dva Mayora" reports FAB-3000 strikes in Siversk direction (Zvanovka).
  • Marinka: Photos show the devastated urban landscape, with views towards Donetsk and Kurakhove, indicating extensive destruction from prolonged combat.
  • Dyliyivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "South" Group drone operators and artillery claimed destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka, stating 8 Ukrainian servicemen, a food depot, and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
  • Toretsk/Novopavlivka/Kurakhove: ISW maps indicate Ukrainian forces advanced under Toretsk, while Russian forces are pushing in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions.
  • Ivanopolye (Donetsk Oblast): Russian 238th artillery brigade and 8th Guards Combined Arms Army claim destruction of Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery pieces in Ivanopolye using Lancet X-51 and Orlan-10 drones.
  • Fedorovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian 36th Combined Arms Army's artillery and and strike UAVs reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, a UAV control point, and a dugout with a firing position near Fedorovka. Two "Baba Yaga" UAVs were also reportedly destroyed by air ramming.
  • Donetsk City: An explosion occurred in a multi-story building, reportedly due to a gas leak. Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of the building, with a child also among the injured, confirming casualties.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces of the 121st regiment, 68th division ("West" Group of Forces) are targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, aided by "Groza Leska" fiber-optic FPV drone control systems. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Chuhuiv district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Kadyrov reported inspection of captured Ukrainian equipment, including a BM-21 "Grad" and an Oshkosh M-ATV, to be repurposed for Russian forces. A photo also depicts an unsuccessful attempt by a Russian force to reach the Kursk border. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in the Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas. On the Kupiansk direction, 5 attacks occurred in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove, with 2 battles ongoing. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces. Russian military bloggers highlight the importance of Radkovka's liberation due to its proximity to the road to Kupiansk, complicating Ukrainian supply. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities and 7 injuries in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian attacks over the past day, with damage to residential homes, warehouses, and enterprises in Kupiansk, Chuhuiv, Staryi Saltiv, and Vilkhuvatka. The Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine reports a 77-year-old woman killed and a 61-year-old woman wounded by Russian aviation strikes on Vilkhuvatka, Kupiansk district, with damage to private homes and outbuildings. Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces claim advances towards Pokalyanoye and seized forest areas north of Volchansk Khutors. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves, resulting in high personnel and light vehicle losses for Russia. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, reports over 400 defensive fortifications built in the region since 2022. Russian forces claim taking control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advancing 400m near Fiholivka. Russian Armed Forces claim to have occupied part of a forest near Kolesnikovka and cleared 500 meters of railway from Ukrainian forces. ISW assesses recent Ukrainian advances near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast). Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, hitting Ukrainian units near Kupiansk and Andreyevka, resulting in up to 215 Ukrainian troops, three armored fighting vehicles (including one US-made M113 APC), 17 motor vehicles, two artillery guns (including one UK-made 155-mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system), one electronic warfare station, and two ammunition depots neutralized.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Shostka district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Ukrainian FPV drones reportedly destroyed Russian artillery and a T-64B tank in the region. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is engaged in counter-attacks, destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Sumy-Kursk border region. A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, and a fire started in a house after RSZV strike. Ukrainian forces have attacked another bridge in Korovyaki, Kursk Oblast, attempting to isolate the Tyotkino bridgehead and impede Russian reinforcement transfers, echoing previous efforts to isolate the Glushkovsky district. Russian forces claim liberation of Maryino and ongoing battles for Belovody. Russian marine infantry units reportedly "burning out" forest belts near Myropillya. An Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka reportedly killed 6 and wounded over 10 servicemen. A Russian video claims the destruction of a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer in Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, on May 11, using FPV drones. Russian sources claim to have liberated Loknya, a village in Sumy Oblast, stating this will determine the fate of the logistics center in Yunakivka, where battles are ongoing. RBC-Ukraine refutes claims of Russian entry into Yunakivka. Russian MoD officially confirmed the liberation of Loknya in Sumy Oblast. Russian MoD reports that the Sever Group of Forces liberated Loknya and launched strikes at Ukrainian clusters near Yunakovka, Bessalovka, Miropolye, Sadki, and Maryino, resulting in losses of more than 155 troops, one tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, ten field artillery guns, and one ammunition depot. Colonelcassad reports that Russian aviation struck a bridge over the Psel river near Mogritsa in Sumy Oblast, causing part of it to collapse, aiming to enhance the buffer zone.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: "Viking" detachment operators are destroying detected Ukrainian personnel hideouts. Stabilization point for the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Transcarpathian Brigade established for combat medics. Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports 403 enemy attacks on 12 settlements, including 4 air strikes, 243 FPV drone attacks, 5 MLRS shellings, and 151 artillery strikes. Two residents of Polohiv district were injured, and 11 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and an enterprise were received. Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia are actively using FPV drones against Russian positions, destroying personnel and equipment, as evidenced by videos from the 141st Separate Infantry Brigade, 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade, and 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Russian VDV (Airborne Forces) soldiers from the 7th Airborne Assault Mountain Division, operating in Zaporizhzhia, are publicly crowdfunding for 8 Starlink satellite communication terminals, indicating a perceived deficiency in or vulnerability of official communication systems. Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian logistics on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified" by FABs and FPV drones, threatening a rapid collapse of urban defenses. The Russian-appointed governor reported that a girl was killed and four children were injured in a Ukrainian attack on a vehicle in Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian MLRS crews from the "Vostok" Group struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment area, confirming a concentration of enemy manpower and hardware. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports successful reconstruction efforts for a residential building destroyed in 2022, highlighting ongoing recovery.
• Krasnolimansky Direction: Torso is a "grey zone." Fighting continues for Rybkhoz and the northern part of the village. Russian forces control several forest belts near Kolodezey but haven't secured the village. Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports Russian forces advancing near Lipovoye and Redkodub, pushing out the enemy, with Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) supporting with 4 FAB strikes on Ukrainian positions in Redkodub. They also mention ongoing battles for forest belts north of Novomikhailovka. Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 attacks in the Lyman direction, with 5 ongoing. Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces hit Ukrainian units near Redkodub and Yampol, resulting in losses.
• Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 5 Russian attempts to advance near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka, all repelled. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 5 attacks repelled on the Orikhiv direction.
• Dnipro Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 unsuccessful Russian attempts to attack fortifications. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 2 unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions near the Antonivka bridges.
• Kursk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian assault actions against Ukrainian positions, with 4 ongoing. Russia conducted 6 air strikes, dropping 10 guided bombs, and 239 artillery shellings, including 12 from MLRS. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for units on the Kursk front, stating an activation of the enemy near Tyotkino. A Ukrainian volunteer from Lviv Oblast was heavily wounded by an enemy shell in Kursk Oblast. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tyotkino. Russian "Northern Wind" units claim to have repelled a Ukrainian armored assault in Glushkovo direction, destroying two BMPs (including a Bradley) and damaging a third, and driving back a Stryker APC. Russian authorities claim full control over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are attempting to attack Tyotkino, suffering significant losses (up to 40 units of equipment and hundreds of assault troops). A Russian local resident from Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, provided a video testimony alleging Ukrainian forces committed atrocities, including drone attacks on civilians, shooting fleeing residents, and looting shops and apartments, also claiming that Ukrainian civilians from Sumy participated in the looting. Russian Investigative Committee claims 16 civilians, including two children (13 and 16 years old), were injured in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from a Ukrainian HIMARS rocket strike on May 22, with damage to residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, and over 20 civilian cars. This is classified as a terrorist act by Russia. Positional battles reported in Sudzha, with Russian forces advancing 500 meters in Gornal and occupying new positions in residential areas. Two elderly men were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts of Kursk Oblast. Butusov Plus shares video of Ukrainian forces successfully ambushing and destroying a Russian unit on the Kursk direction.
• Radkovka (Kharkov region): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces.
• Kherson Oblast: FPV drone operators from the "Convoy E.I.V." volunteer corps brigade destroyed a Turkish-made Kirpi armored vehicle in Kherson Oblast. Russian "Dnepr" Group UAV operators (callsign "Yasen") reportedly struck a Ukrainian strongpoint in Kherson Oblast. Tsaplienko posts video of destruction of a Russian truck deep in Kherson Oblast rear areas, commenting on Russian sources' reactions. Russian units are training to deploy pontoon bridges in Kherson Oblast, which Ukrainian sources view as a potential precursor to river crossing attempts. Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces have repelled 2 Russian army assaults in the Kherson axis.
• Dnipropetrovsk Border Claims: Russian sources claim that units of the 90th Guards Tank Division has breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Novonikolaevka. Ukrainian authorities have denied this claim, stating it is a deliberate fake for intimidation, but acknowledge Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in the area. Over 20 Russian attacks reported in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, with Nikopol region suffering drone and heavy artillery attacks. An Iskander-M strike was reported at a Patriot SAM position near Orzhonikidze in Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Bodies of Ukrainian Soldiers: Russian forces claim to have discovered numerous bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, some burned and unidentifiable, in forested areas near Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, and near Chasov Yar, framed as evidence of poor Ukrainian evacuation practices and high casualties.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): A Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) was reported to have attempted to reach Bryansk city, engaged in a firefight near Subbotovo and Myakishevo, and were blocked by Rosgvardia. Russian sources later claimed the "terrorists" were eliminated.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Specialists from the International Anti-Mine Center and "Bars-Belgorod" volunteers are demining territories in border regions of Belgorod Oblast, finding unexploded ordnance and cluster submunitions. Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast reported a civilian wounded by a drone attacking a moving car, resulting in traumatic amputation of his right arm. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Air Defense Success: 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down another Russian "Lancet" UAV (their 55th). Units of the "Tavria" Group destroyed a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system using drone drops. Ukrainian 801st Separate Detachment for Combating Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means (Naval Forces) destroyed Russia's new "Black Eye" EW complex on Kinburn Spit. The Vuhledar tactical group's air defense reportedly hit its 5000th enemy drone, an "Orlan-10", noting a tripling of Russian reconnaissance flights on Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions and increased use of AI-controlled "Zala V-20" drones that penetrate deep into Ukrainian defense (up to 70-80 km). Ukrainian forces neutralized three UAVs heading towards Sloviansk. Ukrainian air defense is active in Kyiv against Shahed drones. A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian Shahed drone during a night attack. Ukrainian Air Force reports 6 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) were shot down over Kyiv, and 245 of 250 enemy UAVs (Shahed/imitators) were neutralized across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine (128 shot down, 117 lost/suppressed by EW). This indicates a high rate of success against a very large-scale combined attack. Tsaplienko corroborates the Air Force report of 6/14 ballistic missiles shot down and 245/250 UAVs neutralized. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 2 Shahed UAVs destroyed by "OUV Tavria" assets. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports the destruction of 2 Tor-M2 air defense systems and 1 Uragan MLRS in their zone of responsibility over the past day, adding to confirmed Russian air defense losses. STERNENKO confirms that Ukrainian air defense forces, using the ReDrone program, shot down two more Lancet drones. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" reports that Ukrainian Air Force pilots engaged an aerial target.
• Russian Air Activity: Animated scheme of Russian strikes on May 22-23 (Uman, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi) from Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. Russian MoD claims "Sever Group" drone operators destroying Ukrainian combat groups. Russian tactical aviation active on northeastern direction with threat of aviation weapons. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Russian forces reportedly conducted one missile and 50 air strikes, using two missiles and dropping 80 KABs, deploying 1291 kamikaze drones, and conducting 4204 shellings across the front. Russian "Gunter" squad claims to have hit a Ukrainian network tower near the "AKHMAT" special forces area. Colonelcassad and RVvoenkor report Kyiv receiving "Geraniums" (Shahed drones), with explosions and fires confirmed in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district. Two people reported injured in Kyiv due to falling debris. Explosions also reported in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. "Voyenkor Kotenok" confirms multiple fires in Kyiv and metro disruptions, and a missile strike on an object in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 1,177 fixed-wing UAVs between May 20-23, including 788 outside the special military operation zone. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russia launched 14 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) from Taganrog, Yeysk, Bryansk, and occupied Crimea, targeting Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, alongside 250 Shahed/imitator UAVs from multiple directions.
  • Kyiv Mass Drone and Rocket Strikes: Russian sources (ASTRA, Colonelcassad) confirm mass strikes on Kyiv, with reports of approximately 50 Russian strike drones in the skies over the Ukrainian capital. The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) confirms fires on the first and last floors of a residential multi-story building in Kyiv's Dnipro district due to the attack. This signifies a highly intensive and destructive aerial assault targeting Kyiv. New reports confirm Kyiv is "in flames" from a "most powerful attack" lasting almost 6 hours, with hundreds of explosions from "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) and air defense missiles. Russian sources are satirically commenting on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense during this attack, using the phrase "All past" to suggest widespread penetration. A new ballistic missile threat has been declared for areas of Ukraine where air raid alerts are active. Ukraine's State Emergency Service (DSNS) has released footage showing the aftermath of the massive drone and ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, confirming fires in residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, as well as a non-residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. One man was rescued from a burning apartment and transferred to medics, and four people sought medical attention for stress reaction in Obolonskyi district. RBC-Ukraine reports that rescuers in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast, extinguished a fire in a private household caused by UAV debris, with two injured civilians receiving medical assistance. STERNENKO confirms 8 casualties in Kyiv as a result of the combined attack, detailing injuries in Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts, and fires in non-residential buildings in Sviatoshynskyi district, as well as two injured in Kyiv Oblast. ASTRA provides photographic evidence of the damage in Obolonskyi district. The KMVA reports a total of 15 injured in Kyiv across multiple districts (1 in Holosiivskyi, 7 in Solomianskyi, 2 in Dniprovskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi), indicating widespread civilian impact. Tsaplienko reports destruction in the "Blockbuster" shopping mall in Kyiv due to the attack. RBC-Ukraine reports 15 injured in Kyiv, including 7 in Solomianskyi, 1 in Holosiivskyi, 5 in Obolonskyi, and 2 in Dniprovskyi districts, confirming it was one of the "most massive attacks." Zelenskyy stated that 250 Shahed-type drones and 14 ballistic missiles targeted Ukraine, with casualties and damage in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro Oblasts. Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, Basurin o Glavnom, Voenkor Russkoy Vesny, Rybar) report that the Antonov plant in Kyiv was among the targets hit during the night attack, with Alex Parker Returns claiming "over 20 hits" and "good hits," and Rybar stating it was the "main target." They also publish dramatic photos of Kyiv on fire and sarcastically comment on the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Shef Hayabusa also comments on the severe damage to Kyiv this night. KMVA provides information on available material aid and assistance for Kyiv residents affected by the strikes, including city programs and "eRecovery" applications. Podduvny also posted photos of the damage from the night attack on Kyiv, asserting that the Antonov plant was among the targets hit. Russian MoD reports that last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike by ground-based high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles against a Ukrainian defense industry enterprise that produces missile weapons and strike unmanned aerial vehicles, a radio reconnaissance center, and a position of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system. The goal of the strike has been achieved and all assigned targets have been engaged. "Archangel Spetsnaza" claims that due to the overwhelming number of "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) and false targets, Kyiv's air defense was quickly exhausted, leading to 10 confirmed hits on the Antonov plant, causing extensive fires and secondary detonations, confirming the plant as a major target for drone production. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews posted a video of a Patriot SAM system firing multiple missiles in rapid succession, which they claim is for emergency defense and is inefficient against single "Geraniums", suggesting a wasteful use of scarce missiles and a focus on media effect by Ukraine. Colonelcassad also claims the Antonov plant received around 20 hits. He also posts a video of a Patriot SAM firing multiple missiles, with commentary questioning its efficiency against single drones and suggesting it's for "media effect" while depleting scarce missiles. KMVA provides updated figures for Kyiv casualties (14 injured) and damage (9 residential buildings, 26 cars, 2 schools, polyclinic, post office, boiler room damaged). RBC-Ukraine reports over 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles detected in the Air Command "Center" zone, mostly targeting Kyiv, noting drones are changing routes and attacking from various directions and changing routes, and also attacking from higher altitudes, making them harder to suppress. RBC-Ukraine also reports a man attempted suicide in a school shelter in Kyiv during the attack and is now hospitalized.
  • Missile Strike on Izium: Russian military blogger NJP Razvedka claims a Russian ballistic missile launched from Voronezh struck Izium, describing it as a "delivery with a big greeting" and implying significant destruction, including turning areas into "ashes" and affecting "towers and radars." This is a Russian claim, not independently verified. Colonelcassad also reports Iskander-M and Geran/Gerbera strikes on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, in the early hours of May 24.
  • Russian Claims on Ukrainian Casualties and Equipment Loss: TASS, citing Ivan Bigma, Head of the press center for the "West" Group of Forces, reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 220 military personnel, six Starlink satellite communication stations, and two field ammunition depots in the last 24 hours due to the actions of the "West" Group of Forces. This indicates significant reported Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts. Russian MoD provides a detailed daily report on Ukrainian losses, stating total AFU losses amounted to more than 155 troops for the Sever Group of Forces, and up to 215 troops for the Zapad Group of Forces, and more than 280 troops for the Yug Group of Forces, along with significant equipment losses (tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, EW stations, ammunition depots). Voin DV reports the destruction of 1 tank, 1 SAU, 1 automotive vehicle, 3 pickups, 1 UAV control point, 2 Baba Yaga UAVs, and 1 antenna of a ground control station by the 29th Combined Arms Army.
  • Russian Strike on Odesa Port: Russian paratrooper channel, "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", claims two Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes on Odesa Marine Trade Port. The first hit a cargo management headquarters and a warehouse storing special equipment for uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs). The second struck a military reserve vessel parking area, resulting in at least 24 wounded or killed military personnel and severe damage to two supply vessels, "Krym" and "Titan," used as floating bases and radio platforms. Russian underground sources suggest the strike was accurate and hit the same location as a previous attack. However, "Odessa Resistance" claims no ships were present and portal cranes have been non-operational since the last strike, with only occasional marine guard boats observed. This highlights conflicting narratives and the difficulty in verifying real-time damage and casualty figures. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 4 missile strikes with 6 ballistic missiles damaging Odesa marine port infrastructure. Colonelcassad also reports Iskander-M strikes on Odesa and its outskirts, and Geran/Gerbera strikes on Illichevsk, Odesa Oblast.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: New "Shahed-like" "Batyar" drone (800 km range, 18 kg warhead) under production by DeepStrikeTech. An aviation expert notes Russia is modifying "Shahed" drones with a larger 90 kg warhead by reducing range. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces released a video showcasing FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel hiding under trees, in plantations, and in craters, demonstrating effective reconnaissance and precision targeting capabilities. STERNENKO posts a video of drones from his community "utilizing extra-chromosome individuals" (Russians). Tsaplienko states that Russia has surpassed Ukraine in FPV drone production and application, using new generation drones to cut deeper into Ukrainian logistics, with one Ukrainian serviceman noting that "the days of tanks are truly gone." The Ukrainian general staff promotes an advertisement for military contracts highlighting a 1M UAH bonus, 0% mortgage, and state-funded training. Alexander Vilkul reports that the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" received significant aid from Kryvyi Rih, including a pickup truck, 4 DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopters, 10 charging stations, and 6 laptops, totaling over 2.4 million UAH.
• Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Rostec will present new "IGLA" anti-drone cartridges (IGLA 30, 50, 100, Tracer 75) at MILEX-2025. Colonelcassad is crowdfunding for anti-drone training to improve Russian counter-UAV capabilities. Russian military bloggers warn about Ukrainian "relay drones" allowing FPV drones to operate beyond radio horizon, urging vigilance and masking for Russian troops.
• Russian EW Station Destruction Claim: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast and two UAV control points and one stationary EW station in Huliaipole, Marfopil, and Luhove areas. Voin DV reports that units of the 35th Combined Arms Army actively thwarted enemy rotation attempts near Zeleny Hai, Gulyaipole, and Fedorivka, destroying 3 vehicles (including a pickup truck) and eliminating up to 6 Ukrainian servicemen. Additionally, in the Gulyaipole and Myrny areas, artillery strikes destroyed 2 EW stations, 4 UAV launchers, and 2 temporary deployment points. Russian MoD reports that the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized one electronic warfare station.
• Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs reported across Ukraine, including Mykolaiv/Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava (towards Myrhorod), and Chernihiv (towards Mena and Nizhyn) Oblasts. Updated data indicates ongoing Russian Shahed drone activity: a group on eastern Sumy heading west; groups on northern, southern, and central Sumy heading to Chernihiv Oblast; drones in Chernihiv heading to Kyiv Oblast; drones in northern Kyiv heading to Zhytomyr Oblast; drones in eastern Kyiv heading west; drones in northern Poltava heading west. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports a missile strike on Mykolaiv community, injuring a 34-year-old man and damaging a private house. FPV drones hit Mezheva community, causing car fires. КАB strikes on Novopavlivka community destroyed an administrative building, post office, and shop. A kamikaze drone hit Pokrovska community in Nikopol district, damaging solar panels. General Staff of ZSU reports 77 air strikes with 130 KABs dropped and 2997 kamikaze drones used against Ukrainian positions and settlements over the past day, with aviation strikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia. New groups of Shahed drones reported heading from eastern Dnipropetrovsk to Kharkiv Oblast (towards Kharkiv city and Pavlohrad), from central Kharkiv Oblast to Kharkiv city, and multiple UAV groups from southern Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts (including Myrhorod and Poltava city). New groups from Belgorod Oblast are targeting Kharkiv Oblast, and from the south towards Donetsk Oblast. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, likely due to missile or drone activity. Ballistic missile threats from the east, specifically from Bryansk, have been issued and then cleared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other eastern regions. Drone activity is also reported in Poltava, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with some groups moving towards Lubny and Myrhorod. Russian tactical aviation activity is noted on the southeastern direction, posing a threat of aviation weapons for frontline regions. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes lists numerous locations across Ukraine, including western regions (Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr), indicating a broader target set and extensive use of Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. This includes strikes on railway infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine reports that more than 200 UAVs and 9 ballistic missiles, mostly targeting Kyiv, were detected in the zone of responsibility of Air Command "Center" during the night attack. Russian forces reportedly attacked Kyiv from various directions, changing routes, making it harder for EW systems to suppress drones, as Russia is improving their capabilities. Russian drones are also increasingly attacking from higher altitudes (2km+), complicating their neutralization.
• Russian Domestic Drone Attacks: Increased drone attacks on Moscow, with Mayor Sobyanin reporting 26 repelled drones. Russian MoD claims 77 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions (including 9 over Moscow region) between May 20-23. Two people injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. Three UAVs destroyed in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. Rybar reports 247 UAVs destroyed over Russian rear and border regions, causing minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast. Russian air defense systems shot down 1,177 fixed-wing UAVs between May 20-23 (20:00 to 08:00 MSK), with 788 of them outside the special military operation zone, indicating a substantial and widespread Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian territory. A new air raid alert has been declared for Lipetsk Oblast, indicating further Ukrainian aerial activity targeting Russian territory. In Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, residents reported explosions and observed helicopters in the sky, with local authorities warning of a UAV threat to Yelets and several surrounding districts. Ukrainian military sources report at least 5 UAVs falling on the industrial zone of PAO "Energiya" in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire in one of the production workshops, confirming a repeat attack on the facility. ASTRA confirms the repeated attack on PAO "Energiya" in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, with multiple explosions and renewed "Threat of UAV Attack" status, noting the plant's specialization in chemical sources of current, including for UAVs, aviation, and fleet. STERNENKO reports a repeat attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and an attack on the NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, with claims of a damaged natural gas pipeline. Russian sources claim 94 UAVs were shot down across 6 oblasts. STERNENKO confirms repeat attack on "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and attack on NAC "Azot" chemical enterprise in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, with claims of damaged natural gas pipeline. Total of 94 UAVs shot down across 6 oblasts claimed by Russia. Russian air defense claims to have downed four more Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky Airport (Moscow region) have been lifted, then reinstated. Vnukovo Airport has also introduced temporary restrictions. Domodedovo Airport has also implemented temporary flight restrictions. TASS reports air defense is repelling the 15th drone attack on Tula Oblast and a strike by six UAVs on Moscow. ASTRA confirms six more drones shot down over Moscow.
• Black Sea & Azov Sea Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. Three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction). As of May 24, 03:17 UTC, Ukrainian Naval Forces report 2 Russian Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea with a total salvo capacity of up to 12 missiles. The Azov Sea remains clear of enemy ships. NATO activity in the Baltic Sea has increased, with a French reconnaissance vessel and 13 other NATO warships now present, as detailed by Russian sources. Basurin reports that two Russian Air Force planes are suspected of violating Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland in the eastern Baltic, prompting an investigation by Finnish border guards.

Strategic Projections

The strategic picture remains one of high-intensity conflict with continued Russian efforts to expand territorial control, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where reported advances near Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction are significant. Russian forces are sustaining their advances, and the General Staff of ZSU reports heavy fighting and numerous attacks across multiple sectors, especially Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions. Russia's objective of creating a "buffer zone" in border regions is evident through sustained artillery and drone activity in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, as well as ongoing ground assaults in Kursk Oblast. Russian statements from Volodin threatening a "harsh response" to Ukrainian attacks highlight heightened tensions and a potential for further escalation in cross-border strikes. The reported crash of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Oryol Oblast while intercepting drones suggests the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in disrupting Russian operations and infrastructure. The claimed liberation of Radkovka by Russia, if verified, would represent another tactical gain. The continued observation of the devastated Marinka underscores the scale of destruction in the conflict zones. Russian forces are also striking Ukrainian strongpoints in Kherson Oblast using UAVs. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka by Russian forces suggests persistent Russian efforts to target Ukrainian logistics and personnel in rear areas. ISW map updates confirming Ukrainian advances near Toretsk but Russian pushes near Novopavlivka and Kurakhove indicate a dynamic and contested front. New reports confirm ongoing Russian missile, FPV drone, MLRS, and artillery strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing civilian casualties and significant damage to residential and administrative buildings. This highlights the sustained pressure on civilian infrastructure. The Russian claim of taking Troitske and Bogdanovka on the Pokrovsk direction, if verified, indicates continued deep pushes into Ukrainian territory. The re-confirmation of the liberation of Volnoye Pole by a Russian serviceman adds credibility to earlier claims. The claimed Russian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from Ukrainian HIMARS strike, if verified, underscore the cross-border nature of the conflict and its civilian impact. General Cavoli's assessment that Russia has enough "meat" and "iron" to continue the war for at least two more years at current rates indicates a prolonged conflict and highlights the need for long-term strategic planning for Ukraine and its allies. Ukrainian General Staff reporting 202 combat engagements and high numbers of air strikes and drone usage indicates an extremely intense and persistent offensive by Russian forces across multiple sectors. The destruction of a Russian truck in Kherson Oblast rear areas highlights Ukraine's continued ability to conduct successful deep strikes against Russian logistics. Russian sources claim to have "liberated" Nova Poltavka, indicating a strategic push to cut off Ukrainian groupings. WarGonzo's analysis of the Sumy direction, suggesting Ukrainian feints, indicates a complex tactical environment. Russian military bloggers' reports of the Antonov plant in Kyiv being targeted in the recent mass strike, combined with photographic evidence of Kyiv on fire, indicate a high-priority effort by Russia to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial capabilities and inflict widespread damage on the capital. The evacuation of civilians near the attacked "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, though unconfirmed by official sources, suggests a potentially severe incident or fear of one, indicating the strategic impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian industrial infrastructure and civilian safety. Russian efforts to establish railway projects in Africa suggest a long-term strategic pivot to secure resources and geopolitical influence beyond the immediate conflict zone. The official confirmation by the Russian Ministry of Defense of the liberation of Loknya, Stupochki, and Otradnoye indicates consolidated and officially recognized territorial gains for Russia. The FPV-drone footage showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol suggests potential fratricide or a complex and chaotic battlefield environment. Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric following Ukrainian drone attacks signals a continued hardline stance and potential for further Russian escalation, with a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station". The reported suspicion of Russian Air Force planes violating Finnish airspace suggests continued probing of NATO's new eastern flank, with potential for escalation in the Baltic region. Russian MoD's official strike report confirms targeting of a Ukrainian defense industry enterprise (missile/UAV production), a radio reconnaissance center, and a position of the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system, indicating a clear strategic intent to degrade Ukrainian military capabilities and Western-supplied air defense. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews's commentary on the Patriot SAM system's rapid missile expenditure during the Kyiv attack suggests a Russian narrative to question the efficiency and sustainability of Western air defense systems provided to Ukraine, potentially impacting future aid discussions. Colonelcassad's report on the bridge strike in Mogritsa suggests continued Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian logistics and secure buffer zones. Kazakhstan's efforts to nationalize historical narratives related to Victory Day signal a strategic move to decouple from Russia's historical influence in Central Asia. The demonstration of Belarus's "Sky-Truck" unmanned helicopter indicates a growing regional drone production capability that could have future military implications.

Ukraine continues to demonstrate strong asymmetric capabilities through deep strikes targeting Russian EW systems and air defenses (Kinburn Spit, Tavria direction, Kursk Oblast EW system), and effective FPV drone operations against Russian ground forces and logistics. The new "Batyar" drone represents a key development in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, while Russian modifications to "Shahed" drones (larger warheads, reduced range) and ballistic missiles (radar traps, maneuvering) indicate an adaptation to inflict more localized damage and evade air defense. Ukrainian military units are being recognized for their combat effectiveness through a new "combat points" system, highlighting areas of successful engagement and providing a framework for future support prioritization. Ukrainian air defense's 5000th drone kill against an "Orlan-10" demonstrates sustained air defense effectiveness despite increased Russian reconnaissance and AI-controlled drone usage. The successful strike on the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant demonstrates Ukraine's capability to target key military-industrial facilities deep within Russia. The intensified drone attacks on Moscow and Tula highlight Ukraine's persistent capability to inflict costs on Russian territory. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, exemplified by the attack on the Korovyaki bridge, indicate a continued effort to disrupt Russian logistics and military movements in border regions, aiming to relieve pressure on the front lines. The video release on Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov underscores Ukrainian efforts to maintain morale and highlight resilience. The ongoing mass drone and rocket strikes on Kyiv highlight a persistent and significant aerial threat to the capital, aimed at inflicting damage and terror. Russian sources are engaging in information warfare by mocking the perceived ineffectiveness of Ukrainian air defense during these attacks. The renewed ballistic missile threat to Ukrainian regions under air alarm indicates a continued, high-level threat from Russian precision strikes. A new ballistic missile strike is claimed by Russian military bloggers to have hit Izium from Voronezh, accompanied by explicit propaganda mocking Ukrainian air defenses, suggesting continued Russian efforts to target Ukrainian rear areas and degrade morale through information warfare. The DSNS report on the aftermath of the Kyiv attacks provides concrete details of damage to residential and non-residential buildings, and civilian injuries, reinforcing the scale of the threat. The Russian report of over 220 Ukrainian military casualties, 6 Starlink losses, and 2 ammunition depots destroyed by the "West" Group of Forces, if verified, could impact Ukraine's operational capabilities and communication. Continued Ukrainian aerial activity targeting Russian territory, with new reports of explosions and helicopter activity in Lipetsk Oblast, indicates sustained and possibly expanded deep strike operations, including repeat attacks on key industrial facilities like PAO "Energiya" in Yelets. The presence of 2 Russian Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea with a total salvo capacity of up to 12 missiles increases the immediate missile threat to Ukrainian coastal and southern regions. The high number of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones used in the past day, indicating a sustained and high-intensity aerial assault. Ukrainian Air Force data on a massive combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv confirms Russia's evolving tactics and the significant scale of the aerial threat. The effectiveness of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction indicates their adaptation to Ukrainian UAV use. Russian claims of comprehensive night strikes targeting military-industrial complex enterprises, arms storage sites, and Ukrainian military equipment parking areas in Odesa, Kyiv, Obukhiv, Boryspil, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, and Zaporizhzhia, with reserves for Kupiansk near Izium also targeted. The increased Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory, including the repeat attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets and the strike on the "Azot" chemical enterprise in Tula, indicate a broadening of Ukraine's deep strike targeting to include industrial facilities related to Russian military production and infrastructure. Ukrainian GUR's documentation of over 150 cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war have been documented, with direct orders given to kill prisoners. This is a critical development that profoundly impacts the ethical and psychological dimensions of the conflict, potentially affecting Ukrainian forces' willingness to surrender. Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy's detailed report on Russian losses in their area indicates significant success in degrading Russian personnel and equipment, including critical air defense systems and armored vehicles. Tsaplienko's report on Russia surpassing Ukraine in FPV drone production and application, and The Times' assessment that FPV drones are increasingly cutting off Ukrainian logistics, highlights a critical emerging challenge for Ukrainian forces, potentially necessitating a reassessment of defense tactics, particularly for armored vehicles. Zelenskyy's recent address confirms the scale of the combined attacks and reinforces the need for increased international pressure and sanctions. Russian "Archangel Spetsnaza" 's negative assessment of the "Batyar" drone and its comparison to Russian "Gerans" indicates an ongoing information warfare effort to downplay Ukrainian technological advancements. Colonelcassad's detailed technical assessment of the "Batyar" drone, including potential for Starlink and OLS, suggests Russian awareness of its evolving capabilities. The significant aid provided to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" from Kryvyi Rih underscores robust local support for Ukrainian military units. Russian training for pontoon deployment in Kherson Oblast suggests a potential future river crossing attempt, requiring close monitoring and counter-planning. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including Western regions, indicates a broader and more intensive Russian aerial campaign that will strain Ukrainian air defenses and target logistics. The success of the 63rd Brigade's mobile workshop fundraiser highlights the ongoing reliance on and effectiveness of volunteer support for Ukrainian military logistics.

The ongoing prisoner exchange is a critical humanitarian achievement, demonstrating a limited but important channel for cooperation between the belligerents. The return of civilians to Russia, as confirmed by TASS, adds a new dimension to these exchanges, suggesting a broader scope beyond military personnel. However, Russian sources also claim approximately 13,000 Ukrainian political prisoners and civilian captives remain, indicating a contentious information space around the exchanges. However, the reported internal issues within the Russian military regarding the treatment of injured personnel, the reliance of "elite" units on crowdfunding for essential equipment (Starlink, Mavic drones, armored vehicle components), and the active crowdfunding for basic equipment on the Kursk front underscore underlying logistical and personnel management challenges. The re-emergence of serious criminal issues involving former combatants, such as the Wagner fighter's murder conviction and railway sabotage, poses a long-term internal security challenge for Russia. The changes in Russian school textbooks to remove mentions of Western countries and Ukraine, the reported "Russification" efforts in occupied Mariupol, and Bastrykin's calls for traditional values in the constitution further indicate a strategic shift towards isolating the population from Western influence and rewriting history to align with current geopolitical objectives. The assassination of Portnov adds a layer of political intrigue and highlights potential extrajudicial actions. The allegation of corruption in Ukrainian fortification construction is a critical vulnerability that could undermine trust and support. The sentencing of two Novosibirsk residents for railway sabotage underscores Russian efforts to crack down on internal dissent and perceived threats to critical infrastructure, while also revealing the ongoing internal security challenges and the use of individuals, including minors, for subversive acts. The reported individual who desecrated a cross and cut a cat, showing no consequences, further highlights a pattern of escalating abnormal behavior and lack of consequences within Russia. Lavrov's statement questioning President Zelenskyy's legitimacy represents a direct and aggressive information warfare tactic by Russia, aiming to undermine the Ukrainian government's authority internationally and domestically, particularly as Zelenskyy's term ends. The reported civilian casualties in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian strikes underscore the direct humanitarian cost of the conflict. Ukrainian military commemorations and recognition of soldier resilience contribute to morale. Ukrainian crowdfunding efforts for military units highlight ongoing material needs not fully covered by state support. The renewed accusation of internal corruption in Ukrainian fortification construction by a military blogger emphasizes persistent vulnerability and a potential for decreased trust and effectiveness. The satirical video from Butusov Plus regarding Brazilian volunteers indicates active Ukrainian information warfare, leveraging foreign involvement and mocking Russian military fatalities. Butusov Plus also launches a highly critical narrative on returned Russian POWs, portraying them as a criminal element. Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange indicates a deliberate effort to control narratives around POW treatment. The Financial Times report on alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK points to an escalation in hybrid warfare and potential state-sponsored actions on foreign soil. Alex Parker Returns' sarcastic comments on Kyiv's air defense after the attack suggests ongoing Russian information warfare tactics to undermine Ukrainian morale. The extensive civilian casualties and damage in Kyiv, including the shopping mall hit, underscore the immediate and devastating humanitarian impact of large-scale, combined aerial assaults on urban centers. The crowdfunding efforts for the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment and for anti-drone training by Colonelcassad underscore the continued reliance of Russian military units on public donations for essential equipment and training, indicating systemic logistical challenges. The recent report of a girl killed and four children injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack highlights the continued civilian toll of the conflict, particularly for children, and provides fodder for Russian information campaigns. The ongoing reports of forced mobilization and civilian resistance in Ukraine highlight a growing internal social challenge that could impact future force generation. The perceived effectiveness of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's tactic on migration might indicate a possible shift in European public opinion away from populist, potentially pro-Russian, parties. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War initiating public discussions on documenting crimes against Ukrainian POWs, supporting families, and media coverage, suggests a proactive Ukrainian approach to addressing this critical issue and leveraging it for international advocacy. The reports of capital flight from Russia through real estate purchases in the UAE indicate continued economic instability and a lack of confidence among some segments of the Russian population. Russian military bloggers promoting Thai real estate for investment signals continued economic concerns and capital flight. The arrest of three individuals in Podmoskovie for spreading "provocative videos" suggests a crackdown on internal dissent and an attempt to control the information space within Russia. The KMVA's efforts to provide material aid and compensation to Kyiv residents highlight the city's robust social support mechanisms despite the ongoing attacks. The video of Donetsk schoolchildren leaving for adult life symbolically represents a continued human cost and the potential for future mobilization or social impact in occupied territories. The explosion in a Donetsk apartment due to a gas leak, though likely accidental, highlights the fragility of civilian infrastructure in the conflict zone. The Cyberpolice's active engagement in a career festival promoting cybersecurity tools indicates a proactive effort by Ukraine to strengthen its digital defense capabilities and civilian awareness. The planned construction of a 10-story temple in St. Petersburg to honor war participants signifies Russia's intent to ideologically integrate the war into its national identity and reinforce patriotism. The signing of a new law to implement an experiment on additional control and accounting mechanisms for foreign citizens arriving in Moscow and Moscow Oblast without visas, starting September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2029. This expands regional powers for attracting foreign labor. Dmitry Medvedev made strong, aggressive statements regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, particularly before Victory Day, emphasizing a "harsh response" and calling for the "destruction of vile bloodsucking parasites." He also makes a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station" (UVB-76). Mash on Donbas reports that three people (a woman, two men) were rescued from under the rubble of a multi-story building in Donetsk, with a child also among the affected, confirming casualties in the gas explosion incident. TASS reports that speaker Volodin sent a bill to the State Duma committee on increasing pregnancy and maternity benefits for students, with an average benefit of 90,202 rubles, exceeding the scholarship amount. MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts reports that Putin signed a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, allowing debt write-off from 25,000 to 1 million rubles without court intervention upon presentation of a certificate. ASTRA reports that Ekaterina Mizulina has filed a lawsuit against Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Davankov, accusing him of slander and false denunciation, after he questioned the spending of 200 million rubles by her organization. TASS reports snow falling in Ust-Kamchatsky district on Kamchatka (also in Khanty-Mansiysk). TASS reports a bill will be introduced in the State Duma to prohibit depicting churches without crosses. Igor Strelkov's channels are crowdfunding for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts for Russian military units. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Oblast Governor) posted images and video of a military cadet corps graduation ceremony, emphasizing patriotism and combat traditions, with over 70% of graduates entering military universities. Kotsnews shares a historical anecdote about a "Komsomolskaya Pravda" special correspondent's dangerous experience in Chechnya, linking it to the newspaper's 100th anniversary. Basurin o Glavnom attempts to twist the Washington shooting incident into an anti-Israeli and anti-Western narrative, using it to justify Russian actions in Ukraine, a clear example of opportunistic information warfare.

Externally, Donald Trump's reaffirmed protectionist stance on EU tariffs signals potential trade friction with Europe, while his announced "Golden Dome" missile defense system, though ambitious and costly, underscores US long-term strategic defense priorities, even as Russia and China are projected to expand their ICBM arsenals. Russian claims of disrupting US-mediated negotiations indicate their diplomatic positioning and potential for future blame-shifting. The conflict is characterized by both sides adapting their tactics and technology in a protracted war of attrition. JPMorgan's projected war end scenarios offer a sobering assessment of potential outcomes, with a "Georgian scenario" being the most likely, implying a protracted period of weak Western support and a slow drift towards Russian influence. This underscores the critical need for robust, consistent international support for Ukraine. The EU's €150 billion militarization fund and the Defender 25 exercises demonstrate a strong commitment to strengthening European defense. Poland's Patriot missile request further emphasizes the ongoing need for air defense capabilities. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Tykhyy's statement that a Russian peace memorandum would be a "test" highlights Ukraine's cautious approach to negotiations and its efforts to expose Russian maximalist demands on the international stage. The new Russian acknowledgement of deepfakes as an information warfare tool indicates a developing internal counter-narrative strategy to control the information environment. The new air raid alert in Lipetsk Oblast suggests that Ukraine is expanding its deep strike targets within Russia, potentially aiming to disperse Russian air defense assets and further impact Russian industrial or military-related facilities in new regions. The continued and widespread air alarm across central and eastern Ukraine confirms a persistent and significant aerial threat to the nation. Lavrov's statement that a Vatican meeting on Ukraine is "unrealistic" directly counters recent diplomatic efforts and signals a hardening of Russia's position against external mediation, reinforcing its intent to dictate terms of any resolution. General Cavoli's assessment of Russia's two-year war sustaining capability further underscores the need for long-term Western commitment and strategy for Ukraine. The G7's threat of stricter sanctions signals sustained international pressure. Trump's confirmed attendance at the G7 summit highlights continued high-level diplomatic engagement involving the US, despite his stated reservations about intervention. The potential for the EU to revoke Hungary's voting rights creates a risk of internal fragmentation within the bloc. Maria Zakharova's statements linking Pavel Durov's arrest to French electoral electoral interference introduce new information warfare elements, aiming to discredit Western institutions and divert attention. Finland's report of suspected Russian airspace violation indicates a potential for increased tension on NATO's new eastern border. The Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone development indicates a growing indigenous drone production capability that could have future military implications. TASS reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will discuss Ukrainian settlement issues in Moscow and reiterate Ankara's readiness to mediate peace talks.

Risk Assessment

• Operational Risk (Ukraine): High due to ongoing Russian ground advances, requiring significant defensive resources. Challenges persist in maintaining force protection against adapted Russian drone tactics and large-scale attacks. Funding shortfalls for critical FPV drones could impact operational effectiveness, as evidenced by crowdfunding efforts for Mavic drones and the "Rubizh" brigade. Russian advances on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions, combined with high battle engagement numbers, signal increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The potential for a "harsh response" from Russia following drone attacks on its territory adds to the operational risk. The possibility of internal corruption regarding fortification construction poses a significant threat to defensive capabilities and public trust. Ukrainian attempts to isolate the Tyotkino bridgehead using missile strikes on bridges pose operational risks due to potential Russian retaliation and the scale of previous unsuccessful assaults. The high volume of ongoing Russian Shahed drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava) presents a continuous and urgent threat to Ukrainian air defense and infrastructure. The confirmed rocket impacts in Kyiv, alongside mass drone attacks, indicate a continued risk of high-impact strikes on the capital and damage to residential areas. The sustained "most powerful attack" on Kyiv for almost 6 hours indicates a very high and immediate operational risk to the capital and its population. The new ballistic missile threat further elevates this risk. The Russian claim of a ballistic missile strike on Izium, if civilian areas are impacted, suggests an expanding set of targets for Russian precision strikes in Ukraine's rear, increasing operational risk to infrastructure and population centers away from the immediate front lines. The Russian report of over 220 Ukrainian military casualties, 6 Starlink losses, and 2 ammunition depots destroyed by the "West" Group of Forces, if verified, represents a significant operational setback for Ukraine, impacting communication and logistical capabilities. Continued Ukrainian deep strike operations into Russian territory, exemplified by the reported explosions and helicopter activity in Lipetsk Oblast, carry inherent risks of Russian retaliation and resource expenditure for long-range missions. The presence of 2 Kalibr carriers in the Black Sea represents an immediate, severe threat of missile strikes against southern Ukraine. The high number of Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (403 attacks in 24 hours) indicates a very high operational risk to Ukrainian forces and civilians in that region, including direct casualties. The alleged Russian missile strike on Odesa port, if confirmed to have civilian casualties, poses a direct humanitarian risk. The high reported casualties and equipment losses (1130 personnel, 11 tanks, 47 BBMs, etc.) from Ukrainian General Staff, if accurate, indicate sustained operational challenges for Russian forces. The General Staff of ZSU reports 202 combat engagements and high numbers of air strikes (77), KABs (130), and kamikaze drones (2997) in the past day, indicating extremely high pressure on Ukrainian defense. The effectiveness of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction poses a risk to Ukrainian UAV operations. The direct hit on the "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, if confirmed, presents risks of secondary explosions or environmental contamination. The claimed 800 Ukrainian bodies under Chasov Yar, if confirmed, highlight extreme tactical losses and operational strain. The destruction of a Russian truck in Kherson Oblast rear areas indicates continued Ukrainian capability for deep strikes, posing an ongoing operational risk to Russian logistics. The continued crowdfunding for Russian units for basic equipment (radios, generators, Starlink) highlights potential logistical shortcomings impacting operational sustainability. Tsaplienko's report that Russia has surpassed Ukraine in FPV drone production and application, and The Times' assessment that FPV drones are increasingly cutting off Ukrainian logistics, suggests a critical emerging challenge for Ukrainian forces that could impact frontline operations and the effectiveness of armored vehicles. The alleged loss of a Patriot SAM site in Dnipropetrovsk region implies an increased operational risk to Ukrainian air defense capabilities. The railway collapse in the Carpathians highlights vulnerabilities in critical logistics infrastructure in Western Ukraine. The high volume of multi-directional drone attacks across Ukraine, including the new groups moving towards Poltava, Dnipropetropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts, signifies a continuous and severe aerial threat. The attack on Konstantinovka with a FAB-250, resulting in civilian casualties, highlights the continued risk of Russian precision strikes on urban areas. Russian pontoon training in Kherson Oblast suggests an emerging risk of significant river crossing operations, requiring heightened vigilance and counter-planning. Russian claims of liberating Loknya in Sumy Oblast, if verified, represents an operational risk to Ukrainian control of border areas. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including western regions, indicates a broader and more intensive Russian aerial campaign that will strain Ukrainian air defenses and target logistics. The footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol suggests potential fratricide or a complex and chaotic battlefield environment. Russian MoD confirmed targeting of a Ukrainian defense industry enterprise, a radio reconnaissance center, and a Patriot SAM system, which poses a significant operational risk to Ukraine's military industrial capacity and air defense. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews raise concerns about Ukrainian Patriot missile expenditure being unsustainable and reliant on NATO "marodeering," posing a long-term operational risk to Ukrainian air defense effectiveness. Colonelcassad's report on the bridge strike in Mogritsa implies an increased operational risk to Ukrainian logistics in Sumy Oblast. Yuriy Ihnat's report on modernized Iskander missiles with radar traps and maneuvering adds a new layer of operational risk for Ukrainian air defense, particularly Patriot systems. The attempted suicide in a Kyiv school shelter during the attack highlights the severe psychological impact of the ongoing aerial bombardment on civilians, posing a significant operational risk to civilian morale and mental health.
• Operational Risk (Russia): Increased from successful Ukrainian deep strikes on EW and air defense systems, and the crash of a Mi-8 helicopter while intercepting drones. Challenges in personnel management (sending injured back to front, crowdfunding for basic equipment like Starlink and armor) and reliance on crowdfunding for equipment could impact morale and operational efficiency. The reintegration of former combatants with criminal backgrounds presents internal security risks. Intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory (Moscow, Tula, Oryol, and now Lipetsk) demonstrate vulnerability and potential for significant disruption, as evidenced by the large number of downed UAVs reported by the Russian MoD. Internal sabotage acts, like railway arsons, highlight vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure. The reliance on civilian and business donations for essential military equipment (like the "Veche" humanitarian aid) indicates potential gaps in state supply chains, posing a risk to sustained operational capability. Ukrainian efforts to target Russian UAV control points and logistics using drones indicate an ongoing threat to Russian rear operations. The destruction of a Kirpi armored vehicle in Kherson Oblast highlights continued Ukrainian targeting of Russian military assets. Russian strongpoints and temporary deployment points in Kherson Oblast and Dyliyivka are under threat from Ukrainian UAV and artillery strikes, increasing operational risk for Russian forces in these areas. The direct hit on the "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, if confirmed, presents significant operational risks, including industrial disruption and potential safety hazards. The extensive destruction of Russian personnel and equipment reported by Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy indicates sustained operational losses for Russia in their operational zone. The continued crowdfunding for anti-drone training by Colonelcassad suggests an ongoing need to improve Russian counter-UAV capabilities, indicating a persistent threat from Ukrainian drones. The reported attempt by a Ukrainian DRG to reach Bryansk city suggests persistent cross-border infiltration risks for Russia. The Russian-appointed governor's report of civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack will be used to bolster narratives of Ukrainian "terrorism" and increase domestic pressure. The damage to a combat vehicle in Kursk Oblast from a Ukrainian drone highlights the persistent threat to Russian logistical and support vehicles. Russian military bloggers' reports of "over 20 hits" on the Antonov plant in Kyiv, if accurate, represent a significant operational success for Russia in degrading Ukrainian military-industrial capacity. The arrest of three individuals in Podmoskovie for spreading "provocative videos" highlights Russian efforts to suppress internal dissent and control information, but also shows the persistence of information warfare within Russia. The presence of unexploded ordnance and cluster munitions in Belgorod Oblast highlights ongoing demining risks for Russian forces and civilians in border regions. The suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes carries a significant operational risk of miscalculation or escalation with a NATO member. The footage of Russian soldiers observing wild pigs consuming deceased comrades represents an extreme breakdown of military dignity and potentially impacts morale and unit cohesion. Russian MoD's confirmed targeting of a Patriot SAM system indicates their ability to directly challenge and potentially degrade NATO-supplied air defense assets, posing a significant operational risk to Ukraine's air defense network. MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts reports a new law allowing out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, suggesting a potential financial strain or incentive for recruitment, which can pose a risk to the long-term financial stability of the military. The Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone development indicates a growing indigenous drone production capability that could have military applications. The ongoing reports of internal military misconduct and low morale within Russian ranks (e.g., "Saval" incidents) pose a significant operational risk to cohesion and combat effectiveness, particularly if they lead to widespread desertions or refusals to fight. Voin DV's report on destruction of Russian military equipment and UAV control points in the Southern Donetsk direction indicates continued operational losses for Russia. The persistent crowdfunding efforts by Igor Strelkov's channels for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts highlight fundamental logistical deficiencies within the Russian military, posing a risk to sustained operations. The large number of former military cadets entering military universities (over 70% in Bryansk) indicates a long-term strategy for replenishing officer ranks, but the quality and retention of these personnel will be critical.
• Humanitarian Risk: Moderate to high. While prisoner exchanges mitigate some risk, continued high-intensity combat and strikes in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv) pose a risk of increased civilian casualties and displacement. Accidents involving civilians in Russia (e.g., minivan crash) also highlight a broader social impact. Damage to civilian infrastructure in Kyiv from drone debris causes direct risk to civilians. The reported wounding of a civilian and damage to homes in Sumy Oblast underscores ongoing civilian harm. The "Russification" of children in occupied territories poses a long-term humanitarian and cultural risk. The ongoing, widespread Russian Shahed drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts create a significant and persistent humanitarian risk due to potential civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Severe traffic congestion in Moscow due to potentially security-related incidents highlights a disruption to civilian life in the capital. Confirmed residential building fires in Kyiv's Dnipro district underscore immediate dangers to civilians during aerial assaults. The reported "hundreds of explosions" in Kyiv and the sustained attack for almost 6 hours signify a very high and immediate humanitarian risk to the capital's population. The new ballistic missile threat adds another layer of danger for civilians in affected regions. The claimed ballistic missile strike on Izium, if civilian areas are impacted, further raises humanitarian concerns in Ukrainian rear areas. The DSNS report confirms civilian impact (injuries, stress reactions, residential fires) from the recent Kyiv attacks. The reports of explosions and helicopter activity in Lipetsk Oblast also present a direct humanitarian risk to local civilians in Russia. The missile strike in Mykolaiv community and FPV drone attacks in Mezheva community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with one civilian injured and damage to civilian infrastructure underscore ongoing humanitarian risk in these areas. The large number of Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including air strikes and FPV drone attacks, present a continued significant humanitarian risk to civilians in the region, with two injured and extensive property damage reported. The alleged Russian missile strike on Odesa port, if confirmed to have civilian casualties, poses a direct humanitarian risk. The KMVA reports 15 injured in Kyiv, adding to the 2 injured in Kyiv Oblast, for a total of 17 injured civilians, highlighting a severe and immediate humanitarian cost. The KMVA update of 14 injured in Kyiv, along with damaged residential buildings, schools, and other infrastructure, confirms widespread civilian impact. The additional civilian casualties and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast further amplify the humanitarian risk. The emotional toll on families of missing POWs also contributes to humanitarian concerns. The reported civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from Ukrainian HIMARS strike, if independently verified, would pose a significant humanitarian risk. The alleged attack on the "Azot" plant in Tula Oblast raises concerns about potential chemical hazards to civilian populations if a serious incident occurred. The reported death of a child and injury of four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack further emphasizes the extreme humanitarian risk to civilians in frontline regions. The railway collapse in the Carpathians poses a logistical risk to civilian transportation and aid efforts in Western Ukraine. Reports of forced mobilization leading to public resistance in Ukraine highlight a growing humanitarian risk related to civil liberties and potential social unrest. The evacuation of civilians near the attacked "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast suggests a heightened humanitarian risk from potential chemical incidents. The FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, leading to 1 civilian fatality and 3 injuries, directly increases humanitarian risk in Donetsk Oblast urban areas. The explosion in a Donetsk apartment due to a gas leak, though likely accidental, highlights the fragility of civilian infrastructure in the conflict zone. The confirmed casualties (3 rescued, 1 child injured) in Donetsk further highlight this. Two elderly men wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk Oblast underscore the continued humanitarian impact of cross-border strikes. The attempted suicide in a Kyiv school shelter during an attack highlights the severe psychological and mental health risks to civilians during prolonged conflict.
• Information Warfare Risk: High. Both sides will continue to exploit battlefield narratives and diplomatic statements (e.g., Trump's stances, Patriarch Kirill's hidden identity, re-promotion of historical martyrdom narratives, Russian claims of negotiation disruption, revised school textbooks, Portnov assassination narratives) to influence domestic and international audiences. The use of historical narratives (Yevgeny Rodionov, Aurora) to inspire loyalty is a key Russian tactic. The "Russification" of children in Mariupol is a direct example of information warfare targeting the next generation. The immediate and widespread dissemination of information regarding the railway sabotage and the perpetrators' sentences by Russian state-affiliated media highlights a deliberate information warfare strategy to deter similar acts and portray a strong state response. The reported individual who desecrated a cross and cut a cat, showing no consequences, further highlights a pattern of escalating abnormal behavior and lack of accountability within Russia. The use of returning POWs for overt propaganda purposes raises concerns about the voluntariness of their statements. Damage to residential buildings in Kyiv from military strikes raises concerns about indiscriminate targeting and civilian harm. The widespread allegations of Ukrainian forces committing atrocities (drone attacks on civilians, shooting, looting) in Kursk Oblast, if substantiated, would represent severe breaches of international humanitarian law. It is crucial to verify these claims independently. Russian claims of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties, will be used to bolster narratives of Ukrainian "terrorism." The subtle reinforcement of corruption allegations by a Ukrainian military blogger risks undermining domestic trust. The satirical video from Butusov Plus on Brazilian volunteers indicates active Ukrainian information warfare. Butusov Plus also generates significant information warfare by portraying returned Russian POWs as a criminal element. Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange indicates a deliberate effort to control narratives around POW treatment. The Financial Times report on alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK highlights a significant information warfare risk, implying state-sponsored hybrid warfare. Alex Parker Returns posts sarcastic comments about Ukrainian air defense after the Kyiv attack, suggesting that "Ukrainians shot down everything with the workshops of the Antonov plant," directly engaging in information warfare. The Russian-appointed governor's report of civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack will be used for Russian propaganda to portray Ukraine as a "terrorist" actor. The Chechen commander's public statements encouraging defection are a direct psychological warfare tactic. Russian social media posts framing "SMO" results (prison recruitment, political consolidation, NATO weakness) and questioning Russian restraint on civilian airports are clear attempts to shape domestic narratives and potentially push for escalation. The cynicism regarding Russia's nuclear doctrine also highlights internal information warfare challenges. The reports of forced mobilization and public resistance in Ukraine provide significant material for Russian information operations to undermine Ukrainian domestic support and international legitimacy. The sentencing of Ukrainian producer Bardash for pro-Russian views indicates Ukraine's efforts to counter internal information warfare. Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, Basurin o Glavnom, Voenkor Russkoy Vesny) strong commentary on the Antonov plant strike, including claims of "over 20 hits" and "good hits," signifies a concerted information warfare effort to highlight a perceived success and demoralize Ukraine. Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's critical assessment of the "Batyar" drone and its comparison to Russian "Gerans" is an information warfare tactic to devalue Ukrainian military advancements. Fighterbomber's reporting on capital flight from Russia through real estate purchases could be an attempt to normalize capital flight or distract from domestic economic concerns. Russian military bloggers promoting Thai real estate for investment signals continued economic concerns and capital flight. The arrest of individuals in Podmoskovie for "provocative videos" directly highlights Russian efforts to control the internal information space and suppress dissenting narratives, reinforcing the risk of restricted freedoms. Shef Hayabusa also comments on the severe damage to Kyiv this night. Mash on Donbas sharing the video of Donetsk schoolchildren symbolically leaving for adult life aligns with Russian narratives of integrating occupied territories and normalizing the new reality. Maria Zakharova's statements linking Pavel Durov's arrest to French electoral electoral interference introduce new information warfare elements, aiming to discredit Western institutions and divert attention. The construction of a new temple in St. Petersburg dedicated to war participants is a significant information warfare tool to normalize and glorify the conflict within Russia. Rybar reports on a Russian NGO having prepared materials on the danger of Russian comics to the enemy, which is supported by "Two Mayors", indicating an ongoing information warfare effort to frame specific cultural elements as hostile. Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive statements represent a significant information warfare escalation, aiming to project strength and deter further Ukrainian attacks, with a cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station". The "ZONA SVO" channel's sarcastic video about a "cuckold in a cassock" highlights internal Russian criticism and mockery of religious figures, potentially linked to the Patriarch Kirill controversy. The "Svetlochny kapriz" channel's report of a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier could be used by Russia to undermine Ukrainian tactical competence or suggest internal chaos. The Russian law on migrant control in Moscow, while domestic, could be leveraged in information warfare to portray Russia as a country under threat. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews's commentary on Patriot SAM system firing multiple missiles and their perceived inefficiency and cost indicate a coordinated Russian information operation to undermine confidence in Western military aid and highlight Ukrainian strategic errors. TASS reports on "Komosomolskaya Pravda" celebrating its 100th anniversary, used as a platform to disseminate state-approved historical narratives. ASTRA reports that Ekaterina Mizulina has filed a lawsuit against Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Davankov, particularly the allegations of extortion and abuse of power, which will generate negative information internally. MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts reports on a new law allowing out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, which can be leveraged for internal propaganda to show government support for soldiers. Rybar's report on Kazakhstan's efforts to combat Russian Victory Day symbols suggests a growing information warfare risk regarding historical narratives and Russian influence in Central Asia. The bill on prohibiting churches without crosses indicates a legislative effort to reinforce a specific national and religious identity, which can be part of broader information warfare. Putin's public congratulations to Patriarch Kirill also serve as an information warfare tool, reinforcing the state's alignment with traditional religious values. Basurin o Glavnom attempts to twist the Washington shooting incident into an anti-Israeli and anti-Western narrative, using it to justify Russian actions in Ukraine, a clear example of opportunistic information warfare.
• Economic Impact: Moderate for Russia, as economic strains and internal issues are evident despite claims of economic resilience. For Ukraine, the need for continued foreign aid and the impact of attacks on infrastructure remain critical. The long-term impact of the EU's militarization program on its economy remains to be seen. Reports of sharp price increases and cuts to economic support programs in Russia, alongside projections for ruble depreciation, indicate growing economic strain that could impact social stability. The reporting on Russians buying property in the UAE due to rising mortgage rates and changing dollar exchange rates suggests economic pressures influencing individual financial decisions in Russia. Promoting Thai real estate could be an attempt to divert attention from internal economic issues or facilitate capital flight. TASS's report on increased maternity benefits for students and MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts' report on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants indicate attempts to mitigate negative economic and social impacts related to the conflict.
• Political Fragmentation Risk (West): Moderate. Donald Trump's statements on EU tariffs and US involvement in Ukraine could strain transatlantic relations and affect the cohesion of Western support. JPMorgan's analysis of potential war end scenarios highlights the risk of declining Western support and unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine. Russian claims of "disrupting negotiations" aim to sow discord. Ukraine's assessment of a Russian "peace memorandum" as a "test" highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving a genuine diplomatic resolution. The Russian Foreign Minister's statement rejecting a Vatican meeting on Ukraine indicates Russia's unwillingness to engage in external mediation, which could further fragment international diplomatic efforts. General Cavoli's assessment of Russia's two-year war sustainability indicates a protracted conflict, potentially leading to "Ukraine fatigue" among Western allies if not proactively managed. The G7's threat of stricter sanctions signals sustained international pressure. Trump's confirmed attendance at the G7 summit highlights continued high-level diplomatic engagement involving the US, despite his stated reservations about intervention. The potential for the EU to revoke Hungary's voting rights creates a risk of internal fragmentation within the bloc. Maria Zakharova's statements regarding Pavel Durov's arrest and French electoral electoral interference could further strain relations between Western nations. Finland's report of suspected Russian airspace violation indicates a potential for increased tension on NATO's new eastern border. TASS reports on Turkey's renewed offer to mediate in Ukraine, indicating continued diplomatic efforts from Ankara, though with Russia's recent hardline stance, prospects remain low.
• Ethical Compliance: Severe. The reported Russian orders for POW executions (from previous context) and the alleged return of severely injured soldiers to the front lines are grave concerns for international law and human rights, demanding sustained investigation and accountability efforts. The revision of school textbooks to erase certain historical and geographical facts raises concerns about indoctrination. The assassination of Portnov raises questions about extrajudicial actions. The reported "Russification" of children in occupied territories violates international law regarding the treatment of civilians in occupied areas. The reported past behavior of an individual involved in desecrating a cross (cutting a cat), with no reported consequences, further highlights a pattern of escalating abnormal behavior and lack of accountability within Russia. The use of returning POWs for overt propaganda purposes raises concerns about the voluntariness of their statements. Damage to residential buildings in Kyiv from military strikes raises concerns about indiscriminate targeting and civilian harm. The widespread allegations of Ukrainian forces committing atrocities (drone attacks on civilians, shooting, looting) in Kursk Oblast, if substantiated, would represent severe breaches of international humanitarian law. It is crucial to verify these claims independently. The reported civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from Ukrainian HIMARS strike, if independently verified, would pose a significant ethical compliance issues regarding targeting of civilian areas. Ukrainian GUR's documentation of over 150 cases of Russian POW executions, with direct orders to kill, is a severe ethical and international humanitarian law violation, demanding immediate and rigorous international attention and accountability. Operatyvnyi ZSU's reiteration and direct quote from the UN implying presidential involvement in POW executions further elevates the ethical risk. The reported death of a child and injury of four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a Ukrainian attack, if verified as a civilian target, would raise severe ethical concerns for Ukrainian forces. Reports of forced mobilization leading to public resistance in Ukraine raise ethical concerns about civil liberties and human rights during wartime. The alleged disregard for civilian safety and human rights by Russian forces, as evidenced by mass strikes on Kyiv residential areas and the targeting of the Antonov plant in a densely populated area, raises significant ethical concerns. The unconfirmed evacuation near the "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, if verified, would suggest a potential disregard for civilian safety or failure to adequately protect such critical infrastructure. The FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, leading to 1 civilian fatality and 3 injuries, is a direct ethical violation and reinforces concerns about Russia's targeting practices. The arrest of individuals for "provocative videos" in Podmoskovie raises concerns about freedom of expression and political repression in Russia. The reported gas explosion in a residential building in Donetsk, while not directly related to combat, underscores the inherent risks to civilian safety in the conflict zone. The confirmed casualties (3 rescued, 1 child injured) in Donetsk further highlight this. The footage of Russian soldiers observing wild pigs consuming deceased comrades raises severe ethical concerns regarding the treatment of fallen soldiers' remains and potential breaches of international humanitarian law, while also highlighting the brutal realities of the battlefield. The report of MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts on a new law allowing out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants, while aimed at financial relief, raises ethical concerns about incentivizing participation in a conflict with such high human costs. ASTRA's report on Mizulina's lawsuit against Davankov, particularly the allegations of extortion and abuse of power, highlights ethical concerns regarding governance and transparency in Russia. Two elderly men wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk Oblast raise ethical concerns regarding targeting practices in cross-border strikes. The Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone, if used in military operations, could also raise ethical questions regarding its payload and targeting capabilities. The bill on prohibiting churches without crosses raises concerns about freedom of expression and potentially state-imposed religious conformity. The attempted suicide in a Kyiv school shelter during an attack highlights the severe psychological and mental health impacts of conflict on civilians, raising ethical concerns about their protection and well-being. The footage of a wounded Ukrainian soldier being spared by a Russian drone operator, if verified, raises ethical questions regarding its use for propaganda and the selective portrayal of humanitarian acts.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense & EW Systems: Prioritize acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting large-scale drone attacks (e.g., Shaheds with increased warheads) and KABs. Invest in more advanced EW systems to counter Russian drone tactics and protect critical assets, particularly against AI-controlled Zala V-20 drones and increased reconnaissance flights. This is reinforced by the Mi-8 helicopter crash, highlighting the need for more effective aerial countermeasures. Poland's Patriot missile request signals the importance of this. The ongoing, widespread Russian Shahed drone attacks, especially the recent mass strikes on Kyiv, emphasize the continuous and urgent need for robust air defense and EW systems across multiple oblasts, particularly for protecting major population centers and critical infrastructure. The extended, powerful aerial attack on Kyiv for almost 6 hours reinforces the extreme urgency for further air defense assets and munitions, specifically for urban protection. The new ballistic missile threat further elevates this risk. The renewed Ukrainian aerial activity in Lipetsk Oblast, including reports of explosions and helicopter activity, further necessitates continued investment in air defense and EW capabilities across Ukraine to counter evolving threats and tactics. The presence of 2 Kalibr carriers in the Black Sea requires prioritization of anti-ship and air defense assets in southern regions. The high volume of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones reported by General Staff underscores the critical and ongoing demand for air defense. The reported ability of Russian "Vostok" Group UAV operators to destroy Ukrainian UAVs in the sky in Southern Donetsk indicates the need for Ukrainian forces to enhance counter-UAV capabilities. The crowdfunding for anti-drone training by Colonelcassad indicates a Russian effort to address their own deficiencies, suggesting that Ukraine needs to maintain its qualitative edge in this domain. The alleged loss of a Patriot SAM site in Dnipropetrovsk region implies an increased operational risk to Ukrainian air defense capabilities. The high volume of multi-directional drone attacks across Ukraine, including new groups moving towards Poltava, Dnipropetropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts, reinforces the need for layered and mobile air defense assets. Colonelcassad's detailed chronology of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including western regions, underscores the need for distributed and comprehensive air defense coverage across the country, not just frontline areas. The potential airspace violation by Russian military planes over Finland highlights the need for continued vigilance and potential allocation of air defense resources to western borders or to support air patrols, especially if Russia escalates probes of NATO territory. Prioritize research and development into countermeasures against Russia's modernized ballistic missiles that use radar traps and maneuvering, as highlighted by Yuriy Ihnat. Allocate resources to replace or protect any damaged Patriot SAM system positions, as claimed by the Russian MoD.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continue investment in and production of advanced long-range drones like "Batyar" to enhance deep strike capabilities against Russian military infrastructure and logistics, including airfields, command centers, and military-industrial facilities (e.g., Bolkhov plant, and now potentially the "Azot" plant in Tula Oblast). Support continued long-range strikes against bridges and other critical infrastructure in Russian border regions. The new air raid alert in Lipetsk Oblast suggests a potential expansion of deep strike targets, necessitating continued and perhaps diversified long-range strike capabilities, including an assessment of the efficacy of recent strikes. The repeat attack on PAO "Energiya" in Yelets emphasizes the need for sustained targeting of military-industrial facilities. Continued support for Ukrainian deep strikes, such as the destruction of the Russian truck in Kherson Oblast, is crucial. Prioritize analysis and potential countermeasures for Russian pontoon training in Kherson Oblast.
• Ground Forces Reinforcement: Allocate additional resources (manpower, equipment, and defensive fortifications) to areas under intense Russian pressure in Donetsk Oblast (Chasov Yar, Konstantinovka, Otradnoye, Volnoye Pole, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove) and border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Kursk). Prioritize units recognized for their combat effectiveness. Prioritize resources for defending against Russian tactical advances in sectors like Otradnoye. Prioritize resources for reinforcing units on the Pokrovsk direction given the recent claimed advances in Troitske and Bogdanovka. Given the reported 800 Ukrainian bodies under Chasov Yar, immediate reinforcement and strategic adjustment for that sector are critical. Resources should be allocated to counter the ongoing high volume of Russian ground attacks across multiple directions as reported by General Staff. The continued crowdfunding for the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment and the "Rubizh" brigade highlights a critical need for consistent state funding for ground force equipment and repairs, reducing reliance on public donations. The persistent crowdfunding by Igor Strelkov's channels for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts for Russian units also points to significant, likely state-level, logistical gaps. Reinforce defensive lines and intelligence gathering in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, anticipating potential Russian "buffer zone" expansion. Increase cross-border counter-battery fire and drone strikes on Russian military targets in these regions. Given the alleged loss of a Patriot SAM site in Dnipropetrovsk region, resources should be allocated to reinforce ground forces to compensate for reduced air defense coverage in that area. Allocate resources for improving ground forces' resilience against advanced FPV drone tactics, including fiber-optic guided drones and relay drones, with emphasis on masking and cover. Prioritize analysis of Russian pontoon training in Kherson Oblast to prepare for potential river crossing attempts and allocate resources for rapid response. Ensure rapid deployment of specialized units for new tactical approaches, such as the successful Ukrainian motorcycle assault company. Allocate resources for demining operations in liberated and border regions, especially given Russian demining efforts in Belgorod. Analyze and develop countermeasures to overcome Russian improvised armor and camouflage, which are intended to counter drone threats and enhance concealment. Allocate resources to provide consistent and substantial meals for frontline troops, reducing reliance on dry rations, as suggested by "Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺".
• Personnel Welfare and Accountability: Implement rigorous medical and fitness assessments for returning injured personnel. Support for released POWs (medical, psychological, financial) remains paramount. Investigations into alleged war crimes, particularly POW executions, must be prioritized. Address the challenge of re-integrating former combatants to prevent internal security issues. Promote and leverage stories of military resilience and recovery, like Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov's, to boost morale. Resist the use of returning POWs for propaganda purposes. Continue support for families of missing POWs. Support military personnel like "Rudik" who show exceptional resilience. Provide continued support for units like the "Rubizh" brigade facing equipment and logistical challenges through crowdfunding, but also review state supply chains for deficiencies. Given the Ukrainian GUR's documentation of over 150 cases of Russian POW executions, urgent and robust international and domestic action is required to ensure accountability and protect POWs. Ukrainian General Staff's promotion of military contracts with significant bonuses suggests a strategic effort to address mobilization challenges and improve personnel quality. Address the growing issue of forced mobilization and public resistance through transparent and legally compliant recruitment methods to maintain social cohesion. The satirical video from Butusov Plus regarding Brazilian volunteers indicates active Ukrainian information warfare, highlighting foreign volunteer support and mocking Russian military fatalities. Butusov Plus's harsh narrative on returned Russian POWs needs to be considered for its morale impact. Investigate the use of Ukrainian FPV drones against Ukrainian armored vehicles to identify causes and prevent future friendly fire incidents. Ensure adequate support for student mothers in military-related contexts, or for students whose families are affected by the war, as indicated by the new Russian law on increased maternity benefits. Prioritize initiatives that boost morale and combat cohesion, as exemplified by the General Staff of ZSU's highlight of experienced tank crews training. Address the psychological impact of the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter, providing mental health support.
• Cybersecurity & Information Assurance: Enhance cybersecurity measures for critical digital services and military communication networks. Develop counter-narratives and proactive communication strategies to counter Russian information warfare efforts, including the revision of school textbooks and historical narratives. Prioritize securing Ukrainian network infrastructure against attacks like the alleged "Gunter" squad strike. Acknowledge and develop countermeasures against the use of deepfakes in information attacks. Develop robust responses to new Russian information warfare narratives, suchs as alleged Ukrainian atrocities in Kursk Oblast. The investigation by British officials into alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK underscores the need for enhanced cybersecurity and counter-intelligence efforts to prevent hybrid warfare operations targeting critical infrastructure and political figures in allied nations. Counter Russian narratives about POW treatment and defections. Develop and disseminate targeted content to counter Russian efforts to demoralize Ukrainian forces. Intensify counter-propaganda efforts to refute Russian narratives on "SMO" outcomes. Support and promote Cyberpolice's efforts in public cybersecurity education and talent recruitment to build a stronger national digital defense. Develop and deploy VPN solutions for secure communications for military and civilian use, particularly given Russia's efforts to block VPNs.
• Strategic Communications: Maintain robust diplomatic engagement with international partners, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and the human cost of the conflict, while navigating evolving foreign policy stances of key allies. Highlight the human stories of Ukrainian defenders and the impact of the war on civilians. Leverage the "combat points" system to showcase Ukrainian military effectiveness and solicit further support. Counter Russian narratives about "disrupting negotiations" and threats of "harsh responses." Actively counter narratives regarding the "Russification" of occupied territories and the purpose of documentary films like "Mariupol. Three Years of Freedom." Clearly articulate Ukraine's position on any proposed "peace memorandums" to international partners. Actively counter narratives regarding the number of Ukrainian political prisoners and civilian captives. Develop immediate and robust counter-narratives to Russia's attempts to delegitimize the Ukrainian presidency, emphasizing democratic processes and international recognition. Continue to highlight awards and recognition for military personnel to boost internal morale and present a strong image to international partners. Proactively counter General Cavoli's assessment of Russia's two-year war sustainability by emphasizing Ukraine's resilience and the critical need for continued, strong Western support to accelerate an unfavorable outcome for Russia. The Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange highlights the need for Ukraine to maintain a consistent and truthful counter-narrative regarding POW treatment and to expose Russian propaganda. The satirical video from Butusov Plus can be a useful tool for information warfare, highlighting foreign volunteer support and mocking Russian losses. Butusov Plus's critical narrative on returned Russian POWs should be monitored for its domestic and international impact. Zelenskyy's recent address and call for stronger sanctions on Russia underscore the critical need for continued international pressure. Address and counter Russian information warfare efforts to undermine Ukrainian morale through claims of successful strikes on the Antonov plant and by mocking air defense. Actively counter Russian narratives regarding Ukrainian technological advancements, such as the "Batyar" drone, ensuring accurate portrayal and emphasizing strategic purpose. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements linking Durov's arrest to French electoral electoral interference, emphasizing factual inaccuracies and foreign interference in democratic processes. Develop counter-narratives against Russian "comics" and their ideological content. Counter Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric with calm, factual rebuttals, while exposing its dehumanizing nature. Expose and condemn the use of human remains for propaganda purposes, as seen in the Butusov Plus video. Emphasize the positive role of Western allies in the prisoner exchange, such as Kit Kellogg's statement. Highlight positive reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia as a sign of Ukrainian resilience and commitment to its people. Counter Russian narratives about Patriot missile expenditure and alleged wastefulness, emphasizing the effectiveness of air defense despite challenges. Proactively address Kazakhstan's efforts to de-Russify historical narratives, potentially using this as a point of leverage in broader geopolitical messaging to highlight Russian imperial ambitions. Counter Russian legislative efforts to control symbols (e.g., churches without crosses) by highlighting the oppressive nature of such laws. Emphasize the importance of professional training and coordination in armored units, as exemplified by Ukrainian tank crews. Counter Russian information operations that exploit civilian incidents, such as the Washington shooting, for anti-Western propaganda. Address the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter by emphasizing the psychological impact of conflict and the need for support.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Implement immediate, transparent, and robust investigations into all allegations of corruption related to fortification construction and other military procurements to maintain international trust and ensure effective resource utilization. The renewed emphasis on this issue by military bloggers warrants a higher priority for this. The repeated mentions of corruption allegations by Shef Hayabusa, a Ukrainian military blogger, reinforces the urgent need for transparent investigations and accountability to maintain domestic and international trust.
• Civilian Protection in Aerial Attacks: Implement immediate measures to enhance civilian protection in major cities like Kyiv during mass aerial attacks, including strengthened alert systems, accessible shelters, and rapid response for fire and rescue. The updated high number of casualties in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast necessitates immediate review and enhancement of urban civilian protection protocols. The KMVA update of 14 injured in Kyiv, along with damaged residential buildings, schools, and other infrastructure, reinforces the critical need for these measures. Prioritize rapid response and assistance to civilian casualties in Kharkiv Oblast. Support continued efforts to adapt civilian infrastructure for safety, such as school shelters in Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize civilian protection measures in border regions, especially given Russian claims of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes resulting in civilian casualties. Assess and mitigate risks of industrial contamination for civilians from strikes on chemical plants. The severe civilian impact in Kyiv, including the shopping mall hit, and Kharkiv Oblast, necessitates immediate and comprehensive urban civilian protection measures and resource allocation. Address the reported death of a girl and injury of four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through investigation and enhanced civilian protection measures. The FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, leading to 1 civilian fatality and 3 injuries, is a direct ethical violation and reinforces concerns about Russia's targeting practices. Ensure rapid response and assistance for civilian incidents like the gas explosion in Donetsk, and provide support for those injured and displaced. Prioritize civilian safety in border regions subject to drone attacks, including providing proper shelter and medical assistance for injured civilians. Implement mental health support initiatives for civilians impacted by aerial attacks, particularly in heavily targeted cities like Kyiv, in light of incidents like the attempted suicide in a school shelter.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Ground Truth Verification: Utilize satellite imagery and drone feeds to verify Russian claims of territorial gains, particularly in Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction, the claimed liberation of Radkovka, and to assess the impact of tank and FPV drone operations near Chasov Yar and Volnoye Pole. Verify reported battle engagements and outcomes from Ukrainian General Staff reports, including Russian advances towards Komar. Verify the extent of damage and disruption from Ukrainian strikes on bridges in Kursk Oblast. Document the destruction of the Kirpi armored vehicle in Kherson Oblast. Document photographic evidence of Marinka's current state. Document and verify Russian claims of striking Ukrainian strongpoints in Kherson Oblast and the claimed destruction of a temporary deployment point in Dyliyivka. Incorporate ISW map updates on advances and pushes on relevant directions. Document the impact of Russian air strikes, FPV drones, MLRS, and KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including specific damages and casualties. Document all confirmed missile, FPV drone, MLRS, and KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including specific damage assessments (e.g., private homes, administrative buildings, businesses, solar panels) and civilian casualties, correlating with specific communities (Mykolaiv, Mezheva, Novopavlivka, Pokrovska). Document and verify Russian claims of liberating Troitske and Bogdanovka on the Pokrovsk direction. Document any further evidence or confirmation of the claimed liberation of Volnoye Pole by Russian servicemen. Document any claims of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, including reported civilian casualties and damage, cross-referencing with independent sources. Document "Voin DV" footage of destroyed Ukrainian automotive equipment in Otradnoye. Document and verify Russian claims of liberating Maryino and advances in Belovody, Sumy Oblast. Highlight any confirmed hits on Patriot SAM positions. Document Ukrainian FPV drone destruction of Russian artillery and T-64B tank in Sumy Oblast. Document WarGonzo's latest frontline updates for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk (Otradnoye, Komar), Chasov Yar, and Sumy (Yunakovka, Belovody, Tyotkino). Document Russian claims of destroying a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer in Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, on May 11, using FPV drones. Document Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery in Ivanopolye. Document Russian Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports of advances in Krasnolimansky direction (Lipovoye, Redkodub) and FAB strikes. Document the FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, including civilian casualties and damage, cross-referencing with the Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine. Document Russian pontoon training in Kherson Oblast, including visual evidence from Shef Hayabusa. Document Voin DV's report on destruction of Ukrainian temporary deployment points and UAV control points near Fedorovka. Document Russian MoD video of "Giatsint-S" destroying a Ukrainian mortar in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Document the claimed liberation of Loknya in Sumy Oblast by Russian forces, and Ukrainian rebuttal regarding Yunakivka. Document demining activities in Belgorod Oblast, including types of explosives found. Document details of the gas explosion in Donetsk, including number of rescued and injured civilians. Document the footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol. Document Russian MoD's official confirmation of the liberation of Loknya, Stupochki, and Otradnoye, including the specific claim that the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army liberated Otradnoye and cleared 200 buildings. Document Russian MoD's daily combat report, including reported Ukrainian losses in various directions (Sever, Zapad, Yug Groups). Document Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports on the Konstantinovka direction, including advances near Zorya and Yablonovka and towards Druzhkivka. Document any visual evidence for Patriot missile usage in Ukraine, including the video from "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews. Document TASS report on Russian forces clearing 200 buildings in Otradnoye. Document Colonelcassad's report on the bridge strike in Mogritsa, Sumy Oblast. Document reports of elderly men wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk Oblast. Document General Staff of ZSU's post on tank crew training. Document KMVA's updated information on Kyiv casualties and damage from the night attack. Document RBC-Ukraine's report on UAV and ballistic missile numbers targeting Kyiv, including drone tactics changes. Document RBC-Ukraine's report on attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter. Document Butusov Plus's video of Ukrainian forces ambushing Russian unit in Kursk Oblast.
• Drone Analysis: Collect technical specifications and operational data for new Ukrainian drones ("Batyar") and any detected modifications to Russian "Shahed" drones, including warhead size and range. Document all successful Ukrainian drone interceptions (e.g., 79th Air Assault Brigade's Lancet kills, Vuhledar tactical group's 5000th kill, neutralization near Sloviansk). Analyze Zala V-20 drone characteristics and their AI capabilities. Document any damage to infrastructure from drone attacks (e.g., Kyiv, Tula, particularly residential fires in Kyiv's Dnipro district, as detailed by DSNS report on Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts). Collect all available information on the crashed Mi-8 helicopter, including cause of crash and crew fatalities. Document evidence of Russian drone acquisition through crowdfunding, including the "Archangel Spetsnaz" campaign for Mavic drones and the "Veche" humanitarian aid. Track real-time Shahed drone movements and targets across Ukrainian oblasts (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava), and quantify the scale of mass drone attacks on Kyiv. Document Russian claims of successful counter-drone operations and targeting of Ukrainian logistics, including successful interceptions by Russian "Vostok" Group operators. Document any new air raid alerts in Russian regions, such as Lipetsk Oblast, and observed aerial activity (e.g., helicopters in Yelets) to track expanded Ukrainian deep strike zones and their nature, specifically repeat attacks on facilities like PAO "Energiya". Continuously monitor and document the impact of the current "most powerful attack" on Kyiv, including the nature of explosions (Geraniums, air defense missiles), duration, and any further confirmed damage or casualties, using DSNS reports and other verified sources. Document fires in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast, from UAV debris and associated casualties. Document the new ballistic missile threat and its declared regions. If verified, document the claimed ballistic missile strike on Izium, indicating launch origin and impact area. Document all available information on the claimed Russian missile strike on Odesa port, including specific targets (e.g., cargo management headquarters, USV equipment warehouse, military vessel parking), alleged damage to vessels ("Krym," "Titan"), and casualty figures, while also noting conflicting accounts regarding port activity. Illustrate the large number of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones across Ukraine. Visually represent Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's data on successful missile and drone interceptions. Highlight the locations of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Visually represent Russian claims of comprehensive night strikes. Visually represent confirmed attacks on "Azot" and "Energiya" plants in Tula and Lipetsk Oblasts, including new video of "Azot" showing smoke. Highlight the spatial distribution of Russian drone activity across Ukrainian oblasts, including new groups moving towards Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk. Visually represent Ukrainian destruction of Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on Toretsk direction. Visually represent Alex Parker Returns' claim of hits on the Antonov plant in Kyiv. Visually represent Alexander Vilkul's report on aid received by the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia," including specific drone models and quantities. Visually represent Colonelcassad's detailed strike chronology across Ukraine, including western regions and specific target types (e.g., railway station in Chernivtsi). Visually represent the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes. Visually represent "Svetlochny kapriz" 's report on a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier. Document Yuriy Ihnat's comments on modernized Iskander missiles. Document NgP razvedka's video and claim of destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck. Document STERNENKO's report on the damage to Russia's RB-109A EW control system. Document RBC-Ukraine's report on the number of drones and missiles launched at Kyiv and their improved capabilities. Document Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone specifications and preliminary orders. Document Voin DV's report on destruction of Russian military equipment and UAV control points.
• Naval Activity: Track the presence and type of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas, specifically noting changes in "Kalibr" missile carrier deployment and salvo capacity. Document Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy's report on 4 missile strikes with 6 ballistic missiles damaging Odesa marine port infrastructure. Monitor NATO naval activity in the Baltic Sea, including the presence of reconnaissance vessels and SNMG/SNMCMG groups, and compare with Russian reports. Document the Finnish Ministry of Defense's report on suspected Russian airspace violation.
• Personnel Data: Collect and verify all reports on the prisoner exchange, including numbers, identities, and the condition of returned personnel (e.g., 36th Brigade marines, details of released collaborators). Document the return of civilians in the exchange, as reported by TASS and Khinshtein's Telegram channel. Document Russian claims about the remaining number of Ukrainian political prisoners and civilian captives. Monitor reports of Russian soldiers being sent back to the front lines despite severe injuries and crowdfunding efforts for basic equipment like Starlink and armored vehicle components. Track reports of internal criminal activity linked to former combatants, and internal law enforcement operations (e.g., Khabarovsk Krai, Novosibirsk railway sabotage, the individual with previous history of animal cruelty). Document the assassination of Andriy Portnov and related narratives. Document stories of Ukrainian military personnel, such as Lieutenant Colonel Zhdanov's account and "Rudik's" resilience. Document and analyze Russian propaganda videos featuring returned POWs. Collect and verify Russian claims regarding Ukrainian military personnel losses, including specific numbers and equipment losses like Starlink stations, as reported by TASS from the "West" Group of Forces. Document Ukrainian General Staff claims of daily Russian personnel and equipment losses (1130 personnel, 11 tanks, 47 BBMs, etc.) and cross-reference with other sources if possible. Document POW search efforts by families. Document fundraising efforts for Ukrainian military units, such as the "Rubizh" brigade. Document crowdfunding efforts for the Russian 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment. Document Ukrainian GUR's documentation of over 150 cases of Russian POW executions. Document Butusov Plus's satirical video regarding Russian soldiers and wild pigs. Document Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange and its propagandistic elements. Document the Russian-appointed governor's report of a girl killed and four children injured in a Ukrainian attack on a vehicle in Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Document reports of forced mobilization and public resistance in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Lviv. Document Ukrainian General Staff's promotion of military contracts and incentives. Document the sentencing of Ukrainian producer Bardash. Document Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War's public discussions on POW issues. Document Alex Parker Returns' report on the arrest of three individuals in Podmoskovie for spreading "provocative videos." Document Mash on Donbas's video of Donetsk schoolchildren symbolically leaving for adult life. Document the operational details of the Ukrainian assault motorcycle company's successful debut. Document Kit Kellogg's statement on the prisoner exchange. Document Russian military bloggers' photo reports of military personnel from the front. Document the new Russian law on migrant control in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Document TASS's report on increased pregnancy and maternity benefits for students. Document MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts' report on a new law allowing out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants. Document Colonelcassad's video and commentary on the prisoner exchange, including the presence of collaborators. Document the 61st Marine Infantry Brigade thanking the "Two Mayors" channel for support. Document "Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺" 's reporting on frontline soldier meals and rest periods. Document the new Russian law on churches without crosses. Document Zelenskyy's statement on the second day of the prisoner exchange, including numbers and units. Document WarGonzo's and Russian MoD's confirmation of Russian POW returns. Document the Coordination Headquarters' report on the second day of exchange, including details on Mariupol defenders. Document RBC-Ukraine's coverage of the prisoner exchange, including video footage of liberated defenders. Document the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter. Document Putin's congratulatory message to Patriarch Kirill. Document Police in Khabarovsk Krai's promotion of Putin's statements on child-rearing and "Komsomolskaya Pravda" anniversary. Document Kotsnews's historical anecdote about "Komsomolskaya Pravda". Document TASS report on snow in Khanty-Mansiysk. Document Igor Strelkov's crowdfunding efforts for Russian military equipment. Document AV БогомаZ's posts on cadet corps graduation ceremonies, including images and video.
• Information Operations Monitoring: Systematically collect and analyze Russian and Ukrainian information warfare narratives, particularly those related to the "buffer zone," historical figures (Rodionov, Konovalets, Aurora), political figures (Patriarch Kirill, Portnov assassination), claims of negotiation disruption, threats of "harsh responses," and "Russification" efforts in occupied territories (Mariupol school reports, "Mariupol. Three Years of Freedom" documentary). Document and analyze changes in Russian school textbooks. Monitor Russian internal societal narratives from official sources (Bastrykin's comments, demographic KPIs, public statements regarding railway sabotage, Basurin's historical commemorations). Collect and analyze Ukrainian Foreign Minister Tykhyy's statements regarding the proposed Russian "peace memorandum." Actively monitor Russian statements and reporting on the use of deepfakes in information attacks, including their claims and recommended counter-strategies. Collect and verify, if possible, allegations of Ukrainian atrocities in Kursk Oblast as presented by Russian sources, ensuring independent verification protocols are in place. Document and analyze Russian claims regarding Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast. Assess the impact of Russian military bloggers' satirical commentary on Ukrainian air defense performance and claims of Ukrainian casualties/equipment losses. Analyze the Russian claim of liberating Loknya in Sumy Oblast as part of their broader "buffer zone" narrative. Include analysis of General Cavoli's statement on Russia's war sustainability. Include analysis of the Butusov Plus satirical video regarding Russian soldiers and wild pigs. Include analysis of the Financial Times report on alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK. Include analysis of Alex Parker Returns' sarcastic comments on Ukrainian air defense. Include analysis of Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange and its role in information warfare. Analyze the strategic intent and impact of Maria Zakharova's statements regarding Pavel Durov's arrest and French electoral interference. Analyze Russian narratives regarding "true results of the SMO" (prison recruitment, political consolidation, NATO weakness). Monitor Russian social media comments regarding potential escalation of attacks on Ukrainian civilian airports. Analyze Russian cynical commentary on their nuclear doctrine. Analyze Chechen commander's psychological warfare tactics. Analyze the political implications of German Chancellor Merz's poll gains for support of Ukraine. Analyze Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's negative assessment of the "Batyar" drone for information warfare purposes. Monitor Fighterbomber's reporting on capital flight from Russia. Analyze Russian military bloggers promoting real estate investments in Thailand for Russian citizens. Analyze Alex Parker Returns' report on arrests for spreading "provocative videos" in Podmoskovie and their connection to information control. Analyze Shef Hayabusa's commentary on Kyiv being "hit hard" and the extent of damage for its narrative impact. Analyze Mash on Donbas's video of Donetsk schoolchildren symbolically entering adulthood. Analyze Maria Zakharova's statements linking Durov's arrest to French electoral interference. Analyze the ideological message behind the construction of a new temple in St. Petersburg dedicated to war participants. Analyze Rybar's report on Ukrainian NGOs viewing Russian comics as dangerous, and Two Mayors states this indicates the activity is important and needed. Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive statements and their information warfare intent, including his cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station". The "ZONA SVO" channel's sarcastic video about a "cuckold in a cassock." The "Svetlochny kapriz" channel's report of a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier for its information warfare potential. Analyze the Russian law on migrant control in Moscow, while domestic, could be leveraged in information warfare to portray Russia as a country under threat. "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews's commentary on Patriot missile usage for its strategic communication and propaganda impact. Analyze ASTRA's report on Mizulina's lawsuit against Davankov for its political implications. Analyze Rybar's report on Kazakhstan's efforts to combat Russian Victory Day symbols and its implications for historical narrative. Analyze Turkey's renewed mediation offer and its potential impact on diplomatic pathways. Analyze the new Russian law on churches without crosses for its symbolic and ideological implications. Analyze Putin's public congratulations to Patriarch Kirill. Analyze Basurin o Glavnom's information operation regarding the Washington shooting incident. Analyze Russian propaganda implying Russian drone operators spare wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
• Economic and Diplomatic Data: Collect and analyze all relevant statements from international leaders (e.g., Trump's tariff statements, "Golden Dome" announcement, Russian statements on negotiations, EU militarization funding) and official economic reports to assess their potential impact on aid and support for Ukraine. Track projections from financial institutions like JPMorgan regarding war outcomes. Monitor reports on the Defender 25 exercises and Polish Patriot missile requests. Document Lavrov's statements regarding the "unrealistic" nature of Vatican meetings. Document General Cavoli's statement on Russia's war sustainability. Document G7 sanctions threats. Document Trump's confirmed attendance at the G7 summit. Document reports of economic strain in Russia (price increases, budget cuts, ruble depreciation). Document Russian Railways' (RZD) plans for railway projects in Africa. Document Fighterbomber's report on Russians buying property in the UAE and the promotion of Thai real estate investments for Russians. Document the Finnish Ministry of Defense's report on suspected Russian airspace violation. Document TASS's report on increased pregnancy and maternity benefits for students and MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts' report on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants. Document Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone development and preliminary orders. Document TASS report on Turkey's renewed offer to mediate in Ukraine.
• Crime and Internal Security: Monitor reports of internal crime and security incidents in Russia (e.g., Voronezh shooting, high-profile arrests, use of pseudonyms, the Wagner fighter's murder conviction, Moscow Oblast road accident, railway sabotage in Novosibirsk, Moscow traffic congestion) to assess internal stability. Document any allegations of corruption within Ukrainian fortification construction. Collect information on individuals involved in disruptive or illegal activities, including any past patterns of behavior (e.g., the cross desecration and cat incident). Document Shef Hayabusa's renewed commentary on corruption allegations. Document prison escapes of military contractors in Russia. Document incidents involving veterans. Document reports of forced mobilization and public resistance in Ukraine. Include updates on Moscow metro station area improvements as an indicator of urban resilience and investment. Report on arrests for spreading "provocative videos" in Russia. Report on the gas explosion in Donetsk, including casualties. Report on demining activities in Belgorod Oblast. Report on Cyberpolice's public engagement activities. Report on the new Russian law on migrant control in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Report on the death of writer Yuri Nikitin. Report on Mizulina's lawsuit against Davankov. Report on Igor Strelkov's crowdfunding efforts for military equipment. Report on the Bryansk Oblast Governor's cadet corps graduation event.
• Civilian Impact Data: Document all civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure from shelling and drone attacks (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Kyiv, especially confirmed residential fires in Kyiv's Dnipro district, as detailed by DSNS report on Solomianskyi and Obolonskyi districts. Document casualties and damage in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast). Document impacts of security-related incidents on civilian life, such as traffic congestion and residential building damage from aerial attacks. Quantify the impact of the prolonged aerial attack on Kyiv on civilian life and infrastructure, including the impact of ballistic missile threats, leveraging DSNS reports for ground truth. Detail civilian casualties and damage in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast. Document any civilian casualties or infrastructure damage from the claimed ballistic missile strike on Izium. Document reports of explosions and observed helicopters in Lipetsk Oblast, and assess civilian impact. Document civilian casualties and property damage from attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Consolidate and prominently display the total number of injured civilians in Kyiv (15) and Kyiv Oblast (2) due to recent attacks, with a breakdown by district and type of injury where available. KMVA's updated casualties (14 injured) and detailed damage report (9 residential buildings, 2 schools, etc.) should be included. Detail the civilian casualties and property damage in Kharkiv Oblast, including fatalities and injuries in Kupiansk, Chuhuiv, Staryi Saltiv, and Vilkhuvatka, and the types of Russian weapons used (rockets, KABs, FPV drones, Shaheds, other UAVs). Include information on daily minutes of silence for fallen soldiers and civilians. Report on civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, from Ukrainian HIMARS strike. Report on damage to Kyiv's "Blockbuster" shopping mall. Report on the death of a girl and injury of four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Report on civilian evacuation near the "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast. Report on civilian casualties and damage from the FAB-250 strike in Konstantinovka, including the fatality and injuries. Include information on available material aid and compensation for Kyiv residents. Report on the safe in-person learning for children with special educational needs in a bomb shelter in Zaporizhzhia. Report on the gas explosion in a Donetsk apartment, including the confirmed rescue of 3 people and injury of a child. Report on reconstruction efforts for civilian buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Report on elderly men wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk Oblast. Report on the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter.

Analysis and Modeling:

• Offensive Trajectory Modeling: Refine predictive models for Russian offensive operations, taking into account the declared "buffer zone" objective and observed advances in Donetsk and border regions, including the claimed liberation of Radkovka and pushes towards Komar. Assess resource requirements for Ukrainian defensive postures across all active fronts (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Kursk, Kurakhove, etc.). Analyze the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics in border areas (e.g., Korovyaki bridge). Analyze the impact of the Kirpi armored vehicle destruction in Kherson Oblast. Analyze Russian efforts to strike Ukrainian strongpoints in Kherson Oblast and Dyliyivka. Incorporate ISW map analysis of advances and pushes on relevant directions. Analyze the impact of Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Ukrainian defenses. Analyze the implications of continued concentrated strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for civilian infrastructure and military logistics. Analyze the high volume of ongoing Russian attacks (202 combat engagements, 5837 shellings, 2997 kamikaze drones) and their spatial distribution to identify primary and secondary Russian objectives and their current combat efficacy. Analyze the implications of the claimed capture of Troitske and Bogdanovka for future Russian advances on the Pokrovsk direction. Analyze the implications of Russian claims of HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, for both Ukrainian targeting and Russian counter-actions. Analyze the impact of the claimed 800 Ukrainian bodies under Chasov Yar on future operational capabilities and morale. Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian rear logistics in Kherson Oblast. Analyze the implications of Russian claims of liberating Maryino and advances in Belovody, Sumy Oblast, and the tactical assessment by WarGonzo of Ukrainian feints near Tyotkino. Analyze the impact of potential loss of Patriot SAM site in Dnipropetrovsk region on broader air defense. Analyze the impact of Russian "motorcycle assault" tactics near Toretsk. Analyze the impact of Russian destruction of Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery in Ivanopolye. Analyze Russian Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports of advances in Krasnolimansky direction (Lipovoye, Redkodub) and FAB strikes for their strategic significance. Analyze the FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, its targeting implications for urban areas, and its impact on civilian morale and defensive posture. Analyze Russian pontoon training in Kherson Oblast for signs of impending river crossing operations and their strategic implications for southern Ukraine. Analyze the effectiveness of the Ukrainian assault motorcycle company's debut combat mission. Analyze the strategic implications of Russian claims of liberating Loknya in Sumy Oblast and their impact on future advances towards Yunakivka. Analyze the operational impact of Russian demining activities in Belgorod Oblast, including their methodology and scope. Analyze the strategic implications of the official Russian MoD confirmation of territorial gains. Analyze the implications of the Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier on battlefield conditions and operational procedures. Analyze the implications of Russian MoD's confirmed targeting of a Ukrainian defense enterprise, radio reconnaissance center, and Patriot SAM system for Ukrainian military capabilities. Analyze Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺's reports on advances on the Konstantinovka direction, including the implied encirclement threat towards Druzhkivka. Analyze the implications of Russian aviation striking the bridge near Mogritsa for Ukrainian logistics in Sumy Oblast. Analyze the impact of Russian modernized Iskander missiles on Ukrainian air defense capabilities. Analyze Voin DV's report on destruction of Russian military equipment and UAV control points. Analyze the tactical implications of the Butusov Plus video showing a Ukrainian ambush in Kursk Oblast.
• Drone Effectiveness Modeling: Evaluate the combat effectiveness of both Ukrainian and Russian drone operations, considering the impact of new drone types, AI integration, and modifications. Analyze data on successful drone interceptions and EW engagements, including countermeasures against fiber-optic FPV drones. Model the impact of the Mi-8 crash on Russian air defense capabilities and morale. Assess the impact of deep strikes on Russian military-industrial complex facilities (Bolkhov plant, "Azot" plant). Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, considering the reported number of downed UAVs. Model the trajectory and potential targets of ongoing Russian Shahed drone attacks in Ukraine, including combined missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, and assess the impact on residential infrastructure. Analyze Russian claims of successful counter-drone operations and targeting of Ukrainian logistics, including successful interceptions by Russian "Vostok" Group operators. Assess the strategic implications of expanded Ukrainian deep strike zones, suchs as the new alert in Lipetsk Oblast and reported explosions/helicopter activity, on Russian air defense dispersion and overall strategic impact, specifically the repeat attack on Yelets. Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems in responding to the sustained, mass aerial attack on Kyiv, identifying any patterns of penetration or successful intercepts, and the impact of ballistic missile threats on air defense, using DSNS reports for ground truth. Analyze the implications of the claimed ballistic missile strike on Izium for Ukrainian air defense and the targeting priorities of Russian forces. Analyze the claimed Russian missile strike on Odesa port, assessing the credibility of conflicting reports on targets and damage, and its implications for Ukraine's Black Sea operations. Illustrate the large number of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones across Ukraine. Visually represent Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's data on successful missile and drone interceptions. Highlight the locations of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Visually represent Russian claims of comprehensive night strikes. Visually represent confirmed attacks on "Azot" and "Energiya" plants in Tula and Lipetsk Oblasts, including new video of "Azot" showing smoke. Highlight the spatial distribution of Russian drone activity across Ukrainian oblasts, including new groups moving towards Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk. Visually represent Ukrainian destruction of Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on Toretsk direction. Visually represent Alex Parker Returns' claim of hits on the Antonov plant in Kyiv. Visually represent Alexander Vilkul's report on aid received by the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia," including specific drone models and quantities. Visually represent Colonelcassad's detailed strike chronology across Ukraine, including western regions and specific target types (e.g., railway station in Chernivtsi). Visually represent the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes. Visually represent "Svetlochny kapriz" 's report on a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier. Document Yuriy Ihnat's comments on modernized Iskander missiles. Document NgP razvedka's video and claim of destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck. Document STERNENKO's report on the damage to Russia's RB-109A EW control system. Document RBC-Ukraine's report on the number of drones and missiles launched at Kyiv and their improved capabilities. Analyze the operational implications of Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone development.
• Naval Threat Assessment: Continuously assess the threat posed by Russian naval assets in the Black Sea, especially Kalibr missile carriers, and their potential launch patterns and targets. Analyze the impact of increased NATO naval presence in the Baltic Sea on Russian naval strategy and deployment. Analyze the implications of the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes for naval operations in the Baltic Sea.
• Personnel Suitability Analysis: Analyze data on injured Russian soldiers being returned to the front to assess the impact on unit cohesion, morale, and operational effectiveness. Analyze the implications of crowdfunding for essential equipment on Russian military sustainability. Assess the impact of Russian POW propaganda on internal morale and external perception. Analyze the impact of claimed high daily Russian casualties on their overall manpower and operational sustainability. Analyze the psychological and social impact of the conflict on Ukrainian military personnel, including those wounded and those serving for extended periods. Assess the impact of military awards on unit morale and recruitment. Analyze the implications of internal Russian criminal activity linked to former combatants. Analyze the implications of General Cavoli's assessment of Russia's two-year war sustainability on Ukrainian personnel management and long-term planning. Analyze the implications of Ukrainian GUR's documentation of Russian POW executions on Ukrainian forces' willingness to surrender and on their morale. Analyze the impact of reported high Ukrainian losses (800 bodies under Chasov Yar) on morale and force generation. Analyze the impact of crowdfunding for equipment on Russian military units' morale and sustainability. Analyze the consistent crowdfunding efforts by Igor Strelkov's channels for portable power stations, generators, and tactical carts as indicators of systematic logistical gaps and their potential long-term impact on Russian military effectiveness and morale. Analyze the reported death of a girl and four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for its impact on civilian morale and Russian propaganda narratives. Analyze the reports of forced mobilization and public resistance in Ukraine for their impact on military readiness and social cohesion. Analyze the impact of the satirical video showing wild pigs consuming deceased Russian soldiers on morale and information warfare. Analyze the implications of the new Russian law on migrant control for military recruitment and internal security. Analyze the implications of TASS's report on increased maternity benefits for students and MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts' report on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants for Russian military recruitment and social welfare. Analyze the impact of "Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺" 's report on limited rest and dry rations for frontline troops on morale and combat effectiveness. Analyze the impact of the new Russian law on churches without crosses on public sentiment and religious freedom. Analyze the impact of the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter on civilian morale and mental health. Analyze the long-term impact of military cadet corps programs on Russian force generation, including the percentage of graduates entering military universities, as presented by AV БогомаZ.
• Strategic Narrative Assessment: Develop models to assess the potential impact of information warfare campaigns on international public opinion and political decision-making, particularly concerning shifts in Western support and Russian claims of negotiation disruption. Analyze the long-term impact of revised school textbooks and "Russification" efforts on societal values in occupied territories. Assess the impact of the Portnov assassination. Analyze the strategic intent behind Russian propaganda regarding railway sabotage and the "Mariupol. Three Years of Freedom" documentary. Evaluate the implications of Russia's public acknowledgement of deepfakes for future information warfare strategies. Analyze the strategic intent and potential impact of Russian narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities in Kursk Oblast, including an proportionate assessment of their veracity and potential impact. Analyze the strategic intent and impact of Russian claims regarding Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast. Assess the impact of Russian military bloggers' satirical commentary on Ukrainian air defense performance and claims of Ukrainian casualties/equipment losses. Analyze the Russian claim of liberating Loknya in Sumy Oblast as part of their broader "buffer zone" narrative. Include analysis of General Cavoli's statement on Russia's war sustainability. Include analysis of the Butusov Plus satirical video regarding Russian soldiers and wild pigs. Include analysis of the Financial Times report on alleged Russian recruitment for arson attacks in the UK. Include analysis of Alex Parker Returns' sarcastic comments on Ukrainian air defense. Include analysis of Archangel Spetsnaza's commentary on the prisoner exchange and its role in information warfare. Analyze the strategic intent and impact of Maria Zakharova's statements regarding Pavel Durov's arrest and French electoral interference. Analyze Russian narratives regarding "true results of the SMO" (prison recruitment, political consolidation, NATO weakness). Monitor Russian social media comments regarding potential escalation of attacks on Ukrainian civilian airports. Analyze Russian cynical commentary on their nuclear doctrine. Analyze Chechen commander's psychological warfare tactics. Analyze the political implications of German Chancellor Merz's poll gains for support of Ukraine. Analyze Russian Archangel Spetsnaza's negative assessment of the "Batyar" drone for information warfare purposes. Monitor Fighterbomber's reporting on capital flight from Russia. Analyze Russian military bloggers promoting real estate investments in Thailand for Russian citizens. Analyze Alex Parker Returns' report on arrests for spreading "provocative videos" in Podmoskovie and their connection to information control. Analyze Shef Hayabusa's commentary on Kyiv being "hit hard" and the extent of damage for its narrative impact. Analyze Mash on Donbas's video of Donetsk schoolchildren symbolically entering adulthood. Analyze Maria Zakharova's statements linking Durov's arrest to French electoral interference. Analyze the ideological message behind the construction of a new temple in St. Petersburg dedicated to war participants. Analyze Rybar's report on Ukrainian NGOs viewing Russian comics as dangerous, and Two Mayors states this indicates the activity is important and needed. Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive statements and their information warfare intent, including his cryptic reference to a "doomsday radio station". The "ZONA SVO" channel's sarcastic video about a "cuckold in a cassock." The "Svetlochny kapriz" channel's report of a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier for its information warfare potential. Analyze the implications of the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes for NATO security. Include analysis of the new Russian law on migrant control in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Analyze "Starshiy Edda" and Kotsnews's commentary on Patriot missile usage and its perceived implications for Western aid. Analyze ASTRA's report on Mizulina's lawsuit against Davankov for its political implications. Analyze Rybar's report on Kazakhstan's efforts to de-Russify Victory Day narratives for its geopolitical implications. Analyze Turkey's renewed mediation offer and its potential impact on diplomatic pathways. Analyze the new Russian law on churches without crosses for its symbolic and ideological implications. Analyze Putin's public congratulations to Patriarch Kirill. Analyze Basurin o Glavnom's information operation regarding the Washington shooting incident. Analyze Russian propaganda implying Russian drone operators spare wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
• Economic Impact Analysis: Analyze the long-term economic implications of new tariffs and defense spending on both Ukraine and its allies, particularly the EU's militarization program. Assess the accuracy of JPMorgan's war end scenarios and their implications for Ukrainian strategy. Analyze the impact of projected ruble depreciation and economic strain on Russia's war-sustaining capabilities. Analyze the impact of Russians buying property in the UAE due to economic conditions. Analyze the implications of Russian military bloggers promoting Thai real estate on the Russian economy and public confidence. Analyze the economic implications of TASS's report on increased maternity benefits for students and MOBLIZATION | News | Conscripts' report on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants for Russia's demographic and economic stability.
• Humanitarian Logistics Modeling: Refine models for logistical support to released POWs, integrating medical and psychological care needs. Assess the impact of security-related incidents on civilian infrastructure and daily life, such as traffic congestion and residential building damage from aerial attacks. Model the immediate and long-term humanitarian impact of large-scale, prolonged aerial attacks on major urban centers like Kyiv, including the impact of ballistic missile threats, leveraging DSNS reports for ground truth. Model the impact on civilians in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast. Model the potential humanitarian impact of ongoing drone activity and explosions in Russian border regions like Lipetsk Oblast, and the potential for chemical contamination from industrial targets. Model the humanitarian impact of concentrated attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Integrate the updated total of 15 injured civilians in Kyiv and 2 in Kyiv Oblast into humanitarian impact assessments. Integrate civilian casualties and property damage from Kharkiv Oblast into humanitarian impact assessments. Model the logistical challenges of providing aid to families of missing POWs. Integrate the reported death of a girl and injury of four children in Zaporizhzhia Oblast into humanitarian impact assessments. Model the logistical impact of railway disruptions on humanitarian aid delivery in Western Ukraine. Model the potential humanitarian impact of civilian evacuation near the "Azot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast. Integrate the FAB-250 strike on Konstantinovka, including civilian casualties and damage, into humanitarian impact assessments and resource allocation for recovery. Assess the effectiveness of existing civilian support programs in Kyiv (KMVA) in mitigating humanitarian impact. Analyze the impact of safe in-person learning in bomb shelters on children's well-being and education in Zaporizhzhia. Analyze the humanitarian impact of the gas explosion in Donetsk, including rescue efforts and injuries. Analyze the impact of reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia on displaced populations. Analyze the humanitarian impact of the bridge strike near Mogritsa. Analyze the humanitarian impact of the attempted suicide in Kyiv school shelter.

Reporting and Visualization:

• Dynamic Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing Russian advances in Donetsk and border regions, highlighting areas of intense combat and any new "buffer zone" establishments, including the claimed liberation of Radkovka and pushes towards Komar. Include overlays for reported battle engagements and outcomes from Ukrainian General Staff. Include locations of significant equipment losses (e.g., Kirpi in Kherson). Visually represent the devastation of Marinka. Include reported Russian strikes on Ukrainian strongpoints in Kherson Oblast and Dyliyivka. Incorporate ISW map updates on advances and pushes on relevant directions. Show areas of intense activity and casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Show locations and types of strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (missile, FPV drone, KAB, kamikaze drone) and associated damage and casualties. Visually represent claimed advances in Troitske and Bogdanovka on the Pokrovsk direction. Highlight claimed liberation of Volnoye Pole. Visually represent any reported Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and associated civilian impact. Visually represent Ukrainian forces' repelled attacks on Novopavlivka direction. Visually represent Russian losses reported by Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy. Visually represent Russian claims of liberating Maryino and advances in Belovody, Sumy Oblast. Highlight any confirmed hits on Patriot SAM positions. Visually represent Russian claims of destroying a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer in Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast. Visually represent Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian D-20 and D-30 artillery in Ivanopolye. Visually represent Russian Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports of advances in Krasnolimansky direction (Lipovoye, Redkodub). Visually represent the FAB-250 strike location in Konstantinovka, including civilian damage. Visually represent Russian pontoon training locations in Kherson Oblast. Visually represent the reported gas explosion in Donetsk, including the affected building. Visually represent Russian claims of liberating Loknya in Sumy Oblast and Ukrainian rebuttals regarding Yunakivka. Visually represent Russian "Giatsint-S" artillery strikes. Visually represent the footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier near Alexandropol. Highlight Russian MoD's officially confirmed territorial gains on the map, including the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army's liberation of Otradnoye and clearing of 200 buildings. Include locations of Russian MoD's reported strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises, radio reconnaissance centers, and Patriot SAM systems. Visually represent Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺 reports on advances on the Konstantinovka direction, including advances near Zorya and Yablonovka. Include visuals of the bridge strike in Mogritsa, Sumy Oblast. Include visuals of the Ukrainian ambush on a Russian unit in Kursk Oblast from Butusov Plus.
• Drone Activity Heatmaps: Generate visualizations of recent Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, including launch locations, trajectories, and confirmed impacts, to identify high-threat areas and trends. Illustrate the increasing depth of penetration by advanced Russian reconnaissance drones. Include locations of significant incidents like the Mi-8 crash and strikes on Moscow, Tula (including the "Azot" plant), Oryol, and the newly reported Lipetsk. Visualize the scale of Russian air defense activity against Ukrainian drones. Include real-time tracking of Russian Shahed drone movements and targets across Ukrainian oblasts, and confirmed missile and mass drone impacts on Kyiv, including residential fires, and visually represent the sustained nature of the current attack on Kyiv, using DSNS visuals. Visualize the impact of drone debris in Berezaň, Kyiv Oblast. Include a real-time air alarm map of Ukraine, highlighting regions under ballistic missile threat. If verified, visualize the claimed ballistic missile strike on Izium, indicating launch origin and impact area. Visualize the locations of reported explosions and helicopter activity in Lipetsk Oblast to illustrate expanded Ukrainian deep strike zones, specifically repeat attacks on industrial facilities like PAO "Energiya". Visualize the claimed Russian missile strike on Odesa port, including alleged impact points and conflicting accounts. Illustrate the large number of Russian air strikes, KABs, and kamikaze drones across Ukraine. Visually represent Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's data on successful missile and drone interceptions. Highlight the locations of Russian counter-drone operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Visually represent Russian claims of comprehensive night strikes. Visually represent confirmed attacks on "Azot" and "Energiya" plants in Tula and Lipetsk Oblasts, including new video of "Azot" showing smoke. Highlight the spatial distribution of Russian drone activity across Ukrainian oblasts, including new groups moving towards Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk. Visually represent Ukrainian destruction of Russian "Molniya-2" UAV and FPV drone on Toretsk direction. Visually represent Alex Parker Returns' claim of hits on the Antonov plant in Kyiv. Visually represent Alexander Vilkul's report on aid received by the 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia," including specific drone models and quantities. Visually represent Colonelcassad's detailed strike chronology across Ukraine, including western regions and specific target types (e.g., railway station in Chernivtsi). Visually represent the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military planes. Visually represent "Svetlochny kapriz" 's report on a Ukrainian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian YPR armored personnel carrier. Visually represent NgP razvedka's video and claim of destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck. Visually represent STERNENKO's report on the damage to Russia's RB-109A EW control system. Visually represent RBC-Ukraine's report on the number of drones and missiles launched at Kyiv and their improved capabilities. Include visuals of the Belarusian "Sky-Truck" drone.
• Naval Presence Overlays: Provide visualizations of Russian naval presence in the Black and Azov Seas, specifically showing the location of Kalibr missile carriers and their potential strike range. Visualize NATO naval activity in the Baltic Sea. Visually represent the suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military military planes.
• Prisoner Exchange Progress Reports: Create clear, concise reports and infographics on the prisoner exchange, highlighting the number of individuals returned and the support provided, as well as details of released collaborators. Include visual evidence of returned Russian servicemen and civilians, and analysis of associated propaganda. Provide a counter-narrative to Russian claims of 13,000 remaining Ukrainian prisoners. Highlight the process of families searching for missing POWs. **Include analysis of Russian