Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus

Major Updates

• Russian Ground Operations:

  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasov Yar): Russian T-90M "Proryv" tanks, operated by Ivanovo and Kostroma paratroopers, are actively destroying Ukrainian strongholds and personnel near Chasov Yar. Russian forces are continuously delivering ammunition and provisions under enemy fire.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Otradnoye/Komar): Russian forces of the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Army, "Vostok" Group) claim the liberation of Otradnoye on the Andreevka direction, covering over 10 sq km and clearing approximately 200 structures. They report overcoming Ukrainian defenses and advancing towards Komar, a significant Ukrainian stronghold. This is presented as a continuation of their successful offensive after taking Bogatyr. Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian counterattacks near Otradnoye and Komar (2 with MaxxPro vehicles destroyed, 2 in infantry formation near Zelenoye Pole), advancing up to 1 km in depth and along the front. They also cleared two more forest belts east of Fedorovka (0.5 km deep, 1.5 km front) and continue clearing local resistance in northern and southern Zelenoye Pole, now controlling over 60% of the settlement. Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye were reportedly hit by "Vostok" Group UAV operators.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka Direction): Russian forces are developing a broad offensive on the Konstantinovka direction, acknowledged by Ukrainian military analysts. After consolidating positions in Novaya Poltavka, units of the 150th Motor Rifle Division advanced up to 2 km deep (8 sq km area) and are now attacking the outskirts of Popov Yar. They also advanced north and south of Aleksandropol (6 sq km area), assaulting the southern part of Old Nikolaevka and clearing Romanovka. Near Shevchenko Pervoye, Russian forces stormed Ukrainian strongholds and advanced over 2 km deep (12.5 sq km area) along forest belts. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing.
  • Donetsk Oblast (General Staff ZSU): Russian forces launched 45 attacks on the Pokrovsky direction, with 6 ongoing. On the Toretsk direction, Russia launched 20 attacks, 18 repelled, with battles ongoing. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 18 assaults near Novopil, Zelene Pole, Vilne Pole, Bahatyr, Vesele, Burlatske, and towards Otradne on the Novopavlivka direction, with 9 engagements ongoing.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupiansk direction): Russian 121st regiment, 68th division ("West" Group of Forces) are targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, utilizing the "Groza Leska" fiber-optic FPV drone control system. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in the Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas. On the Kupiansk direction, 5 attacks occurred in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove, with 2 battles ongoing.
  • Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv Border Regions: Russian barrel and rocket artillery, along with FPV drone units (from "Anvar" group), are actively striking Ukrainian positions in Shostka district (Sumy Oblast) and Chuhuiv district (Kharkiv Oblast), and in the border region of Chernihiv Oblast. These operations aim to form a "buffer zone" and prevent Ukrainian advances towards the state border. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is reportedly destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Sumy-Kursk border region, pushing them deeper into their territory.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: "Viking" detachment operators are destroying detected Ukrainian personnel hideouts.
  • Krasnolimansky Direction: Torso is a grey zone with both sides attempting to enter; no reported advancement. Fighting for Rybkhoz and the northern part of the village. Russian forces control several forest belts near Kolodezey but haven't consolidated in the village. Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 attacks in the Lyman direction, with 5 ongoing.
  • South Donetsk Direction (Volnoye Pole): Russian Vostok Group's 5th Combined Arms Army assault detachment successfully captured a well-fortified Ukrainian stronghold near Volnoye Pole.
  • Kursk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian assault actions against Ukrainian positions, with 4 ongoing. Russia conducted 6 air strikes, dropping 10 guided bombs, and 239 artillery shellings, including 12 from MLRS. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for Starlink, drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for units on the Kursk front due to enemy activation near Tyotkino. A Ukrainian volunteer from Lviv Oblast was heavily wounded by an enemy shell in Kursk Oblast. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is engaged in battles near Tyotkino, repelling Ukrainian attacks.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 out of 3 attacks. Battle near Kurdyumivka and towards Bila Hora is ongoing.
  • Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces attempted to advance 5 times near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka, but were repelled.
  • Dnipro Direction: Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to attack Ukrainian fortifications.
  • Radkovka (Kharkov region): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces.

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Capabilities:

  • Electronic Warfare (EW) Suppression: Ukrainian 801st Separate Detachment for Combating Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means (Naval Forces) successfully struck Russia's new "Black Eye" EW complex on Kinburn Spit.
  • Air Defense System Destruction: Ukrainian "Tavria" Group drone system units destroyed a Russian 9K322 Tor-M2 air defense system on the Tavria direction using precise drone drops.
  • Drone Countermeasures: Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down another Russian "Lancet" drone, marking their 55th Lancet interception among nearly 1,400 other Russian UAVs. The Vuhledar tactical group's air defense reportedly hit its 5000th enemy drone, an "Orlan-10".
  • New Long-Range Drone Development: Ukraine reports the development of a "Shahed-like" drone named "Batyar" with a range of over 800 km and an 18 kg warhead.
  • Russian Drone Modification Assessment: Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap states that Russia has modified "Shahed" drones to carry a larger 90 kg warhead at the expense of reduced range, making them more dangerous.
  • Ukrainian Military Units Combat Effectiveness: DeepState has published a TOP-10 list of Ukrainian units for April based on "combat points" (verified destruction of enemy equipment/personnel), highlighting effective units such as 414th Separate Brigade of Special Operations "Mad'ar's Birds", SSO A SBU, LASAR GROUP NGU, 3rd Assault Brigade, GW BAS PHOENIX, 3rd SSO Regiment, 72nd Mechanized Brigade "BULAVA", 12th Separate Special Purpose Brigade "AZOV", 412th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "NEMESIS", and 59th Assault Brigade of Unmanned Systems.
  • Russian Helicopter Downing: A Mi-8 combat helicopter reportedly crashed in Oryol Oblast during an attempt to intercept Ukrainian drones, killing all three crew members.
  • Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant Strike: Units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other elements of the Defense Forces, successfully struck the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant in Oryol Oblast, a critical supplier for Russian military-industrial complex enterprises.

• Humanitarian and Social Issues:

  • Prisoner Exchange: The first stage of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange has concluded, resulting in 390 Ukrainians released (270 military, 120 civilian). Ukraine also released 70 collaborators to Russia, including a Medvechuk associate and former SBU/Cabinet officials. This significant humanitarian step is ongoing, with more releases anticipated. Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed their returned servicemen are in Belarus receiving assistance. Separately, 52 marines from the 36th Brigade (Mariupol defenders from 2022) were released and are undergoing treatment/rehabilitation. Russian MoD reports 270 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians (including those captured in Kursk region) have been returned.
  • Russian Military Personnel Conditions: A 37-year-old Russian soldier, Anton Savchenko, who lost vision in his left eye due to injuries sustained in November, was reportedly sent back to the front lines after medical examinations recommended a lower fitness category. This highlights issues with the medical and suitability assessment of injured personnel. Russian paratroopers are reportedly crowdfunding for Starlink terminals for unit communications. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for armored vehicle components.
  • Russian Internal Security and Information Warfare:
    • An individual in Voronezh Oblast opened fire near a train station, injuring one person. The perpetrator is a local driver with a criminal past and debts, ruling out terrorism for now.
    • Patriarch Kirill is reportedly disguised in the Russian Federal Tax Service database under the name "Ivan Zakharovich Prokhorov," raising concerns about financial transparency and potential sanction evasion.
    • A photo of deceased Russian border guard Yevgeny Rodionov (killed in Chechnya in 1996 for refusing to remove his cross) is circulated, presented as a symbol of courage and loyalty. This narrative is being actively re-promoted, emphasizing his refusal to convert and subsequent beheading on his birthday.
    • A former Wagner fighter, Rail Khairov, was sentenced to 23 years for the murder of a muezzin in Saratov Oblast, committed less than a year after his release from prison under a combat pardon. This highlights concerns about the reintegration of pardoned former combatants.
    • An accident involving a minivan carrying children in Moscow Oblast resulted in two child fatalities and eight injuries.
    • Russian police in Khabarovsk Krai have arrested a man who had abducted his six-year-old daughter four years prior and was in international search.
    • Russian school textbooks have removed mentions of European countries and the USA, now focusing on China and North Korea, and no longer list Ukraine as a bordering country.
    • Mariupol: French TV (BFM) reports on the "Russification" of the younger generation in occupied Mariupol, showing school ceremonies with Russian symbols, military personnel distributing diplomas, and children expressing desires to join the FSB, highlighting Russia's efforts to culturally integrate occupied territories.
  • Ukrainian Military Commemoration: The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" was opened near the Arch of Freedom of the Ukrainian People in Kyiv on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizing resistance and sacrifice and commemorating the historical significance of Ukrainian marine infantry. Additionally, May 23 is commemorated as the day Yevhen Konovalets, head of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, was killed by Soviet special services in Rotterdam.
  • Ukrainian Cybersecurity Report: Ukrainian State Service of Special Communications, in collaboration with ICE Task Force, published an English-language report "War and Cyber: Three Years of Struggle and Lessons for Global Security," analyzing cyber warfare trends against Ukraine since 2022 and offering recommendations for international cyber defense.
  • Andriy Portnov Assassination: Former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov was assassinated in Madrid, Spain, widely reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, fueling intense information warfare and highlighting potential extrajudicial actions.
  • Alleged Ukrainian Fortification Corruption: A new allegation of internal corruption within Ukraine regarding fortification construction has emerged.
  • Sumi Oblast Civilian Casualty: A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, Sumy Oblast, and hospitalized. Over a dozen houses in the community were also damaged or destroyed.

• International Relations and Economic Shifts:

  • Trump's Stance on EU Tariffs: Donald Trump stated he does not intend to reconsider the 50% import tariff on EU goods, which will take effect June 1, but confirmed willingness to negotiate if EU companies build factories in the US. This reiterates his protectionist stance.
  • US Missile Defense System: Donald Trump announced that the US has selected the architecture for a new "Golden Dome" missile defense system, projected to cost $175 billion over three years ($25 billion next year). It aims to integrate next-generation land, sea, and space technologies, with Canada expressing interest. The US Air Force acknowledges it's still conceptual. Russian analysis expresses skepticism about the feasibility and cost, given delays in other US ICBM programs and a projected increase in Chinese and Iranian ICBM arsenals by 2035.
  • Russian Political Statements: Volodin states that "euroofficials and their puppets in Ukraine are trying to disrupt renewed US-mediated negotiations." He further threatened an "adequate and harsh response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities" following drone attacks on Kyiv.
  • EU Military Funding: EU Ambassadors approved a plan for the militarization of Europe with €150 billion. Colonelcassad reports that this is part of a larger €800 billion ReArm Europe program, with focus on procurement of US equipment and concerns about production capacity.
  • Russia-US Prisoner Exchange Talks: Dmitry Peskov confirmed ongoing discussions on prisoner exchange with the US ("9 for 9" contact).
  • Russia-Vatican Relations: Peskov mentioned the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June.
  • Poland-Ukraine Relations: President Zelenskyy and Polish PM Donald Tusk discussed presidential elections, peace steps, and EU membership clusters, emphasizing continued pressure on Russia. Poland remains a crucial partner for Ukraine's security and Euro-integration.
  • Belarusian Action Against Kalinoŭski Regiment: Belarusian authorities initiated criminal proceedings against and declared wanted 125 individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. Five commanders sentenced in absentia to 12-20 years.
  • Foreign Fighter Involvement: Russian sources report a Serbian volunteer from "Ural" battalion, Aleksandar Kubatovic, claiming to be a regular Russian Army serviceman, highlighting legal challenges for foreign fighters.
  • Defender 25 Exercise: US Army Europe and Africa Command is conducting Defender 25, a series of three multinational exercises involving approximately 28,000 personnel from 29 nations across Europe, demonstrating rapid deployment and interoperability.
  • Poland's Patriot Missile Request: Poland has formally requested a batch of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for its Patriot systems from the US, valued at $5.8 billion.
  • Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Export: Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that the first foreign customer of the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter jet will begin its operation in 2025.

• Strategic Projections:

  • JPMorgan War End Scenarios: JPMorgan analysts predict the active phase of the war could end by summer 2025, offering four scenarios:
    • Georgian (50%): No foreign troops, weak Western support, Ukraine stagnates and drifts towards Russia.
    • Israeli (20%): Stable Western aid but no peace, Ukraine becomes a fortress without negotiation chances.
    • South Korean (15%): Control over 80% of territory, democracy under US "umbrella" without NATO.
    • Belarusian (15%): Complete collapse, US disappears from region, Europe disintegrates, Ukraine becomes a Russian vassal.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Chasov Yar Direction: Russian T-90M "Proryv" tank crews of the Ivanovo and Kostroma airborne forces are reported destroying Ukrainian strongholds and personnel near Chasov Yar. Russian forces are actively delivering ammunition and provisions to their positions.
  • Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces are broadly advancing, with the 150th Motor Rifle Division moving towards Popovy Yar and clearing Romanovka and Old Nikolaevka. They also advanced towards Shevchenko Pervoye, securing strongholds and covering 12.5 sq km. Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction, with 6 ongoing. Russian special forces "AKHMAT" are working on enemy strongholds at night. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is advancing. Russian forces, supported by ZALA Z-16 reconnaissance drones, destroyed Ukrainian 117th Brigade storage facilities in the Zoloty Kolodyaz area.
  • Otradnoye/Komar Direction (Southern Donetsk): Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade claims liberation of Otradnoye, covering over 10 sq km and consolidating positions towards Komar. They claim to have repelled 4 Ukrainian counterattacks (2 with MaxxPro BMMs destroyed) and advanced up to 1 km in depth and along the front. Clearing operations continue in Zelenoye Pole. Russian "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Ukrainian General Staff reports 9 ongoing battles in the Novopavlivka direction, including towards Otradne. The liberation of Bogatyr, a fortified area, is confirmed. "Voyenkor Kotenok" reports that after taking Otradnoye, units of the "Vostok" Group continued to advance towards Komar, establishing positions west of it and in the southern part of the enemy's defensive line, and are engaged in battles at the southeastern outskirts of Komar. North of Otradnoye, battles are ongoing for forest belts on the southern bank of the Volchya River.
  • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk direction): Russian 103rd Regiment is advancing beyond Dzerzhinsk, reportedly burning Ukrainian infantry and positions, utilizing FPV drones to destroy enemy concentrations. Ukrainian General Staff reports 20 attacks in the Toretsk direction, 18 repelled, with battles ongoing.
  • Volnoye Pole (South Donetsk Direction): Russian Vostok Group's 5th Combined Arms Army assault detachment successfully captured a well-fortified Ukrainian stronghold.
  • General Donetsk: Russian artillery and FPV drones are actively striking Ukrainian positions.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 out of 3 attacks repelled; battle continues near Kurdyumivka and towards Bila Hora.
  • Verkhnekamenskoye (Seversk direction): Rybar reports Russian forces fighting on the western outskirts.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces of the 121st regiment, 68th division ("West" Group of Forces) are targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, aided by "Groza Leska" fiber-optic FPV drone control systems. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Chuhuiv district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Kadyrov reported inspection of captured Ukrainian equipment, including a BM-21 "Grad" and an Oshkosh M-ATV, to be repurposed for Russian forces. A photo also depicts an unsuccessful attempt by a Russian force to reach the Kursk border. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3 attacks in the Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Dvorichna areas. On the Kupiansk direction, 5 attacks occurred in Kolisnykivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove, with 2 battles ongoing. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka by units of the Zapad Group of Forces.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the Shostka district, contributing to buffer zone creation. Ukrainian FPV drones reportedly destroyed Russian artillery and a T-64B tank in the region. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is engaged in counter-attacks, destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Sumy-Kursk border region. A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, and a fire started in a house after RSZV strike.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: "Viking" detachment operators are destroying detected Ukrainian personnel hideouts. Stabilization point for the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Transcarpathian Brigade established for combat medics. Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia.
• Krasnolimansky Direction: Torso is a "grey zone." Fighting continues for Rybkhoz and the northern part of the village. Russian forces control several forest belts near Kolodezey but haven't secured the village. Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 attacks in the Lyman direction, with 5 ongoing.
• Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 5 Russian attempts to advance near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka, all repelled.
• Dnipro Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 2 unsuccessful Russian attempts to attack fortifications.
• Kursk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 39 Russian assault actions against Ukrainian positions, with 4 ongoing. Russia conducted 6 air strikes, dropping 10 guided bombs, and 239 artillery shellings, including 12 from MLRS. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for units on the Kursk front, stating an activation of the enemy near Tyotkino. A Ukrainian volunteer from Lviv Oblast was heavily wounded by an enemy shell in Kursk Oblast. Russian 56th Airborne Regiment is repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tyotkino. Russian "Northern Wind" units claim to have repelled a Ukrainian armored assault in Glushkovo direction, destroying two BMPs (including a Bradley) and damaging a third, and driving back a Stryker APC. Russian authorities claim full control over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
• Herson Oblast: Explosions heard in Kherson.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Air Defense Success: 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down another Russian "Lancet" UAV (their 55th). Units of the "Tavria" Group destroyed a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system using drone drops. Ukrainian 801st Separate Detachment for Combating Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means (Naval Forces) destroyed Russia's new "Black Eye" EW complex on Kinburn Spit. The Vuhledar tactical group's air defense reportedly hit its 5000th enemy drone, an "Orlan-10", noting a tripling of Russian reconnaissance flights on Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions and increased use of AI-controlled "Zala V-20" drones that penetrate deep into Ukrainian defense (up to 70-80 km). Ukrainian forces neutralized three UAVs heading towards Sloviansk. Ukrainian air defense is active in Kyiv against Shahed drones.
• Russian Air Activity: Animated scheme of Russian strikes on May 22-23 (Uman, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi) from Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. Russian MoD claims "Sever Group" drone operators destroying Ukrainian combat groups. Russian tactical aviation active on northeastern direction with threat of aviation weapons. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. "Vostok" Group UAV operators reportedly hit Ukrainian command and communication facilities near Otradnoye. Russian forces reportedly conducted one missile and 50 air strikes, using two missiles and dropping 80 KABs, deploying 1291 kamikaze drones, and conducting 4204 shellings across the front. Russian "Gunter" squad claims to have hit a Ukrainian network tower near the "AKHMAT" special forces area. Colonelcassad and RVvoenkor report Kyiv receiving "Geraniums" (Shahed drones), with explosions and fires confirmed in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district. Two people reported injured in Kyiv due to falling debris. Explosions also reported in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. "Voyenkor Kotenok" confirms multiple fires in Kyiv and metro disruptions, and a missile strike on an object in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 1,177 fixed-wing UAVs between May 20-23, including 788 outside the special military operation zone.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: New "Shahed-like" "Batyar" drone (800 km range, 18 kg warhead) under production by DeepStrikeTech. An aviation expert notes Russia is modifying "Shahed" drones with a larger 90 kg warhead by reducing range.
• Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Rostec will present new "IGLA" anti-drone cartridges (IGLA 30, 50, 100, Tracer 75) at MILEX-2025.
• Russian Helicopter Downing: A Mi-8 combat helicopter reportedly crashed in Oryol Oblast during an attempt to intercept Ukrainian drones, killing all three crew members.
• Russian EW Station Destruction Claim: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast using a precision drone strike.
• Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs reported across Ukraine, including Mykolaiv/Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava (towards Myrhorod), and Chernihiv (towards Mena and Nizhyn) Oblasts.
• Russian Domestic Drone Attacks: Increased drone attacks on Moscow, with Mayor Sobyanin reporting 26 repelled drones. Russian MoD claims 77 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions (including 9 over Moscow region) between May 20-23. Two people injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. Three UAVs destroyed in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. Rybar reports 247 UAVs destroyed over Russian rear and border regions, causing minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast.
• Black Sea & Azov Sea Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. Three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction).

Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Prisoner Exchange: The first stage of the "1000 for 1000" exchange has released 390 Ukrainians (270 military, 120 civilian). Ukraine released 70 collaborators, including a Medvechuk associate, former Cabinet Secretariat employee, and former SBU analyst. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War confirmed the exchange and that more are anticipated. Medical, psychological, and financial support is provided to released Ukrainians. Additionally, 52 marines from the 36th Brigade, who bravely defended Mariupol in 2022, were freed and are now receiving treatment and rehabilitation. Russian MoD confirms 270 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians (including from Kursk region) were returned.
• Russian Military Personnel Issues: A 37-year-old Russian soldier who became partially blind from injuries was allegedly sent back to the front, despite medical recommendations for a change in fitness category. This highlights potential issues with medical care and reassignment for injured Russian military personnel. A Russian military nurse from Moscow region, Lyudmila Bolilaya, is presented for a state award for heroism after being injured while saving a wounded serviceman. Russian paratrooper units are actively fundraising for Starlink terminals, indicating a need for basic communication equipment not fully provided by the state. Russian military bloggers are crowdfunding for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles.
  • A former Wagner fighter, sentenced to 23 years for murder and other crimes, was released under a pardon for combat service, highlighting concerns about the rehabilitation and societal impact of returning combatants.
• Russian Civilian Safety: An unknown individual opened fire near a train station in Rossosh, Voronezh Oblast, injuring one person. The perpetrator is a local driver with a criminal past and debts, and the incident is likely domestic/criminal, not terror-related. An accident involving a minivan with children in Moscow Oblast resulted in two child fatalities and eight injuries.
• Ukrainian Military Commemoration: The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" was opened in Kyiv on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizing resistance and sacrifice. May 23 is also observed as the day Yevhen Konovalets, a key figure in Ukrainian nationalist history, was assassinated by Soviet intelligence.
• Russian Social and Political Dynamics: Patriarch Kirill is allegedly hidden in the Russian tax service database under a different name, similar to other officials/siloviki, raising questions about financial transparency and accountability. The image of Yevgeny Rodionov, a Russian border guard killed in 1996 for refusing to convert during captivity, is being used to symbolize courage and fidelity; this narrative is being reinforced with details about his refusal to remove his cross on his birthday. Russian school textbooks are being revised to remove mentions of European countries and the USA, now focusing on China and North Korea and no longer listing Ukraine as a bordering country. Police in Khabarovsk Krai arrested a man who had abducted his six-year-old daughter four years prior. The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, expressed support for mandatory viewing of Soviet cinema in schools and stated that artificial intelligence will not replace human investigators. He also stated that the national idea should be enshrined in the Constitution based on traditional values. Russian MoD shares footage of Russian military life and equipment. Rosstat projects a decrease in Russian school students from 18M (2024) to 16.3M (2028). Birth rate will be a KPI for Russian regional heads starting in 2026, with 13 billion rubles annually allocated. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov presented Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces.
• Ukrainian Fundraising: "CyberBoroshno" reports a significant gap between requested FPV drones and funds raised, forcing reductions in drone issuance to less active combat zones. Fundraising efforts continue for Ukrainian units (e.g., 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade) for Mavic 4T drones, antennas, and batteries.
• Ukrainian Public Services: "Diia" and "Driver's Cabinet" services are temporarily unavailable May 24-27 for maintenance.
• Mariupol "Russification": French TV (BFM) reports on the "Russification" of the younger generation in occupied Mariupol, showing school ceremonies with Russian symbols, military personnel distributing diplomas, and children expressing desires to join the FSB, highlighting Russia's efforts to culturally integrate occupied territories.
• Sumi Oblast Civilian Casualty: A 76-year-old man was wounded by Russian shelling in Bilopillya community, Sumy Oblast, and hospitalized. Over a dozen houses in the community were also damaged or destroyed.

Strategic Outlook

The strategic picture remains one of high-intensity conflict with continued Russian efforts to expand territorial control, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where reported advances near Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction are significant. Russian forces are sustaining their advances, and the General Staff of ZSU reports heavy fighting and numerous attacks across multiple sectors, especially Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions. Russia's objective of creating a "buffer zone" in border regions is evident through sustained artillery and drone activity in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, as well as ongoing ground assaults in Kursk Oblast. Russian capture of a stronghold near Volnoye Pole signals continued localized gains in South Donetsk. Russian statements from Volodin threatening a "harsh response" to Ukrainian attacks highlight heightened tensions and a potential for further escalation in cross-border strikes. The reported crash of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Oryol Oblast while intercepting drones suggests the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in disrupting Russian operations and infrastructure. The claimed liberation of Radkovka by Russia, if verified, would represent another tactical gain.

Ukraine continues to demonstrate strong asymmetric capabilities through deep strikes targeting Russian EW systems and air defenses (Kinburn Spit, Tavria direction), and effective FPV drone operations against Russian ground forces and logistics. The new "Batyar" drone represents a key development in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, while Russian modifications to "Shahed" drones (larger warheads, reduced range) indicate an adaptation to inflict more localized damage. Ukrainian military units are being recognized for their combat effectiveness through a new "combat points" system, highlighting areas of successful engagement and providing a framework for future support prioritization. Ukrainian air defense's 5000th drone kill against an "Orlan-10" demonstrates sustained air defense effectiveness despite increased Russian reconnaissance and AI-controlled drone usage. The successful strike on the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant demonstrates Ukraine's capability to target key military-industrial facilities deep within Russia. The intensified drone attacks on Moscow and Tula highlight Ukraine's persistent capability to inflict costs on Russian territory.

The ongoing prisoner exchange is a critical humanitarian achievement, demonstrating a limited but important channel for cooperation between the belligerents. However, the reported internal issues within the Russian military regarding the treatment of injured personnel, the reliance of "elite" units on crowdfunding for essential equipment (Starlink, Mavic drones, armored vehicle components), and the active crowdfunding for basic equipment on the Kursk front underscore underlying logistical and personnel management challenges. The re-emergence of serious criminal issues involving former combatants, such as the Wagner fighter's murder conviction, poses a long-term internal security challenge for Russia. The changes in Russian school textbooks to remove mentions of Western countries and Ukraine, the reported "Russification" efforts in occupied Mariupol, and Bastrykin's calls for traditional values in the constitution further indicate a strategic shift towards isolating the population from Western influence and rewriting history to align with current geopolitical objectives. The assassination of Portnov adds a layer of political intrigue and highlights potential internal and external targeting of former Ukrainian regime figures. The allegation of corruption in Ukrainian fortification construction is a critical vulnerability that could undermine trust and support.

Externally, Donald Trump's reaffirmed protectionist stance on EU tariffs signals potential trade friction with Europe, while his announced "Golden Dome" missile defense system, though ambitious and costly, underscores US long-term strategic defense priorities, even as Russia and China are projected to expand their ICBM arsenals. Russian claims of disrupting US-mediated negotiations indicate their diplomatic positioning and potential for future blame-shifting. The conflict is characterized by both sides adapting their tactics and technology in a protracted war of attrition. JPMorgan's projected war end scenarios offer a sobering assessment of potential outcomes, with a "Georgian scenario" being the most likely, implying a protracted period of weak Western support and a slow drift towards Russian influence. This underscores the critical need for robust, consistent international support for Ukraine. The EU's €150 billion militarization fund and the Defender 25 exercises demonstrate a strong commitment to strengthening European defense. Poland's Patriot missile request further emphasizes the ongoing need for air defense capabilities.

Risk Assessment

• Operational Risk (Ukraine): High due to ongoing Russian ground advances, requiring significant defensive resources. Challenges persist in maintaining force protection against adapted Russian drone tactics and large-scale attacks. Funding shortfalls for critical FPV drones could impact operational effectiveness. Russian advances on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions, combined with high battle engagement numbers, signal increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The potential for a "harsh response" from Russia following drone attacks on its territory adds to the operational risk. The possibility of internal corruption regarding fortification construction poses a significant threat to defensive capabilities and public trust.
• Operational Risk (Russia): Increased from successful Ukrainian deep strikes on EW and air defense systems, and the crash of a Mi-8 helicopter while intercepting drones. Challenges in personnel management (sending injured back to front, crowdfunding for basic equipment like Starlink and armor) and reliance on crowdfunding for equipment could impact morale and operational efficiency. The reintegration of former combatants with criminal backgrounds presents internal security risks. Intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory (Moscow, Tula, Oryol) demonstrate vulnerability and potential for significant disruption.
• Humanitarian Risk: Moderate to high. While prisoner exchanges mitigate some risk, continued high-intensity combat and strikes in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv) pose a risk of increased civilian casualties and displacement. Accidents involving civilians in Russia (e.g., minivan crash) also highlight a broader social impact. Damage to civilian infrastructure in Kyiv from drone debris causes direct risk to civilians. The reported wounding of a civilian and damage to homes in Sumy Oblast underscores ongoing civilian harm. The "Russification" of children in occupied territories poses a long-term humanitarian and cultural risk.
• Information Warfare Risk: High. Both sides will continue to exploit battlefield narratives and diplomatic statements (e.g., Trump's stances, Patriarch Kirill's hidden identity, re-promotion of historical martyrdom narratives, Russian claims of negotiation disruption, revised school textbooks, Portnov assassination narratives) to influence domestic and international audiences. The use of historical narratives (Yevgeny Rodionov) to inspire loyalty is a key Russian tactic. The "Russification" of children in Mariupol is a direct example of information warfare targeting the next generation.
• Economic Impact: Moderate for Russia, as economic strains and internal issues are evident despite claims of economic resilience. For Ukraine, the need for continued foreign aid and the impact of attacks on infrastructure remain critical. The long-term impact of the EU's militarization program on its economy remains to be seen.
• Political Fragmentation Risk (West): Moderate. Donald Trump's statements on EU tariffs and US involvement in Ukraine could strain transatlantic relations and affect the cohesion of Western support. JPMorgan's analysis of potential war end scenarios highlights the risk of declining Western support and unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine. Russian statements about "disrupting negotiations" aim to sow discord.
• Ethical Compliance: Severe. The reported Russian orders for POW executions (from previous context) and the alleged return of severely injured soldiers to the front lines are grave concerns for international law and human rights, demanding sustained investigation and accountability efforts. The revision of school textbooks to erase certain historical and geographical facts raises concerns about indoctrination. The assassination of Portnov raises questions about extrajudicial actions. The reported "Russification" of children in occupied territories violates international law regarding the treatment of civilians in occupied areas.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense & EW Systems: Prioritize acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting large-scale drone attacks (e.g., Shaheds with increased warheads) and KABs. Invest in more advanced EW systems to counter Russian drone tactics and protect critical assets, particularly against AI-controlled Zala V-20 drones and increased reconnaissance flights. This is reinforced by the Mi-8 helicopter crash, highlighting the need for more effective aerial countermeasures. Poland's Patriot missile request signals the importance of this.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continue investment in and production of advanced long-range drones like "Batyar" to enhance deep strike capabilities against Russian military infrastructure and logistics, including airfields, command centers, and military-industrial facilities (e.g., Bolkhov plant).
• Ground Forces Reinforcement: Allocate additional resources (manpower, equipment, and defensive fortifications) to areas under intense Russian pressure in Donetsk Oblast (Chasov Yar, Konstantinovka, Otradnoye, Volnoye Pole, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka) and border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Kursk). Prioritize units recognized for their combat effectiveness.
• Personnel Welfare and Accountability: Implement rigorous medical and fitness assessments for returning injured personnel. Support for released POWs (medical, psychological, financial) remains paramount. Investigations into alleged war crimes, particularly POW executions, must be prioritized. Address the challenge of re-integrating former combatants to prevent internal security issues.
• Cybersecurity & Information Assurance: Enhance cybersecurity measures for critical digital services and military communication networks. Develop counter-narratives and proactive communication strategies to counter Russian information warfare efforts, including the revision of school textbooks and historical narratives. Prioritize securing Ukrainian network infrastructure against attacks like the alleged "Gunter" squad strike.
• Strategic Communications: Maintain robust diplomatic engagement with international partners, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and the human cost of the conflict, while navigating evolving foreign policy stances of key allies. Highlight the human stories of Ukrainian defenders and the impact of the war on civilians. Leverage the "combat points" system to showcase Ukrainian military effectiveness and solicit further support. Counter Russian narratives about "disrupting negotiations" and threats of "harsh responses." Actively counter narratives regarding the "Russification" of occupied territories.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Implement immediate, transparent, and robust investigations into all allegations of corruption related to fortification construction and other military procurements to maintain international trust and ensure effective resource utilization.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Ground Truth Verification: Utilize satellite imagery and drone feeds to verify Russian claims of territorial gains, particularly in Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction, the claimed liberation of Radkovka, and to assess the impact of tank and FPV drone operations near Chasov Yar and Volnoye Pole. Verify reported battle engagements and outcomes from Ukrainian General Staff reports, including Russian advances towards Komar.
• Drone Analysis: Collect technical specifications and operational data for new Ukrainian drones ("Batyar") and any detected modifications to Russian "Shahed" drones, including warhead size and range. Document all successful Ukrainian drone interceptions (e.g., 79th Air Assault Brigade's Lancet kills, Vuhledar tactical group's 5000th kill, neutralization near Sloviansk). Analyze Zala V-20 drone characteristics and their AI capabilities. Document any damage to infrastructure from drone attacks (e.g., Kyiv, Tula). Collect all available information on the crashed Mi-8 helicopter, including cause of crash and crew fatalities. Document evidence of Russian drone acquisition through crowdfunding.
• Personnel Data: Collect and verify all reports on the prisoner exchange, including numbers, identities, and the condition of returned personnel (e.g., 36th Brigade marines, details of released collaborators). Monitor reports of Russian soldiers being sent back to the front lines despite severe injuries and crowdfunding efforts for basic equipment like Starlink and armored vehicle components. Track reports of internal criminal activity linked to former combatants, and internal law enforcement operations (e.g., Khabarovsk Krai). Document the assassination of Andriy Portnov and related narratives.
• Information Operations Monitoring: Systematically collect and analyze Russian and Ukrainian information warfare narratives, particularly those related to the "buffer zone," historical figures (Rodionov, Konovalets), political figures (Patriarch Kirill, Portnov assassination), claims of negotiation disruption, threats of "harsh responses," and "Russification" efforts in occupied territories (Mariupol school reports). Document and analyze changes in Russian school textbooks. Monitor Russian internal societal narratives from official sources (Bastrykin's comments, demographic KPIs).
• Economic and Diplomatic Data: Collect and analyze all relevant statements from international leaders (e.g., Trump's tariff statements, "Golden Dome" announcement, Russian statements on negotiations, EU militarization funding) and official economic reports to assess their potential impact on aid and support for Ukraine. Track projections from financial institutions like JPMorgan regarding war outcomes. Monitor reports on the Defender 25 exercises and Polish Patriot missile requests.
• Crime and Internal Security: Monitor reports of internal crime and security incidents in Russia (e.g., Voronezh shooting, high-profile arrests, use of pseudonyms, the Wagner fighter's murder conviction, Moscow Oblast road accident) to assess internal stability. Document any allegations of corruption within Ukrainian fortification construction.
• Civilian Impact Data: Document all civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure from shelling and drone attacks (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Kyiv).

Analysis and Modeling:

• Offensive Trajectory Modeling: Refine predictive models for Russian offensive operations, taking into account the declared "buffer zone" objective and observed advances in Donetsk and border regions, including the claimed liberation of Radkovka and pushes towards Komar. Assess resource requirements for Ukrainian defensive postures across all active fronts (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Kursk, etc.).
• Drone Effectiveness Modeling: Evaluate the combat effectiveness of both Ukrainian and Russian drone operations, considering the impact of new drone types, AI integration, and modifications. Analyze data on successful drone interceptions and EW engagements, including countermeasures against fiber-optic FPV drones. Model the impact of the Mi-8 crash on Russian air defense capabilities and morale. Assess the impact of deep strikes on Russian military-industrial complex facilities (Bolkhov plant). Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and Tula.
• Personnel Suitability Analysis: Analyze data on injured Russian soldiers being returned to the front to assess the impact on unit cohesion, morale, and operational effectiveness. Analyze the implications of crowdfunding for essential equipment on Russian military sustainability.
• Strategic Narrative Assessment: Develop models to assess the potential impact of information warfare campaigns on international public opinion and political decision-making, particularly concerning shifts in Western support and Russian claims of negotiation disruption. Analyze the long-term impact of revised school textbooks and "Russification" efforts on societal values in occupied territories. Assess the impact of the Portnov assassination.
• Economic Impact Analysis: Analyze the long-term economic implications of new tariffs and defense spending on both Ukraine and its allies, particularly the EU's militarization program. Assess the accuracy of JPMorgan's war end scenarios and their implications for Ukrainian strategy.
• Humanitarian Logistics Modeling: Refine models for logistical support to released POWs, integrating medical and psychological care needs.
• Corruption Impact Analysis: Model the potential impact of alleged corruption in fortification construction on military readiness, international aid, and domestic trust.

Reporting and Visualization:

• Dynamic Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing Russian advances in Donetsk and border regions, highlighting areas of intense combat and any new "buffer zone" establishments, including the claimed liberation of Radkovka and advances towards Komar. Include overlays for reported battle engagements and outcomes from Ukrainian General Staff.
• Drone Activity Heatmaps: Generate visualizations of recent Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, including launch locations, trajectories, and confirmed impacts, to identify high-threat areas and trends. Illustrate the increasing depth of penetration by advanced Russian reconnaissance drones. Include locations of significant incidents like the Mi-8 crash and strikes on Moscow, Tula, and Oryol.
• Prisoner Exchange Progress Reports: Create clear, concise reports and infographics on the prisoner exchange, highlighting the number of individuals returned and the support provided, as well as details of released collaborators.
• Strategic Threat Assessments: Provide regular briefings on the implications of new drone technologies, EW systems, Russian tactical adaptations, Russian political statements (e.g., Volodin's threats), and the impact of Russian claims regarding negotiations. Include analysis of the Portnov assassination and its potential ramifications.
• International Support Dashboards: Visualize the status of international aid and diplomatic stances, highlighting any changes in commitments or rhetoric, including the implications of Trump's statements, the EU's militarization funding, and the Defender 25 exercises.
• Internal Stability Indicators: Present reports on Russian internal security issues and the social impact of the conflict on their population, including crowdfunding activities, changes in educational curricula, and demographic shifts.
• Ukrainian Unit Performance Metrics: Visualize the "combat points" and top-performing Ukrainian units to showcase effectiveness and inform resource allocation, as provided by DeepState.
• Corruption Allegations Briefings: Provide clear and concise briefings on the status and implications of corruption allegations regarding fortification construction.
• Civilian Impact Reports: Detail reports on civilian casualties and infrastructure damage due to military operations.

Feedback Loop:

• Frontline Feedback: Establish direct feedback channels with units engaged in current ground operations (e.g., Chasov Yar, Otradnoye, Kupiansk, Volnoye Pole, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Kursk) to validate intelligence on Russian advances and tactical changes.
• Drone Development Feedback: Maintain close coordination with Ukrainian drone developers and operational units to continuously improve drone capabilities and countermeasures, especially against AI-controlled and modified Russian drones. Gather feedback on the effectiveness of countermeasures against "Shahed" attacks in Kyiv.
• Humanitarian Feedback: Collect feedback from organizations supporting returned POWs to optimize assistance programs.
• Diplomatic Channels: Solicit feedback from diplomatic partners on the impact of information campaigns and evolving political landscapes, particularly regarding negotiation efforts and Western unity.
• Public Sentiment Monitoring: Continuously monitor public and social media sentiment in Ukraine and Russia to gauge the impact of operational and information warfare, including the effectiveness of narratives like the Yevgeny Rodionov story and reaction to crowdfunding efforts, as well as "Russification" efforts in occupied territories.
• Anti-Corruption Feedback: Establish direct channels for reporting and receiving feedback on anti-corruption efforts, ensuring transparency and accountability.