Operational Intelligence Briefing Update

Major Updates

• Prisoner Exchange (Conflicting Reports): Initial reports from Donald Trump suggested a "large-scale" prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine had concluded. However, Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) contradict this, stating the process is still ongoing. Alex Parker Returns claims a "1000 for 1000" exchange is "right now" taking place at the border with Belarus, but this remains unverified by official Ukrainian sources. This suggests a lack of concrete confirmation on the status or conclusion of any major exchange.
• Intensified Russian Air/Missile Strikes (May 22-23): Colonelcassad details an extensive chronology of Russian air and missile strikes from May 22-23, using a "full range of weapons" including guided aerial bombs (UMPKs) and "Geranium" (Shahed) drones. Targets included Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kirovohrad (Iskander-M), Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. This indicates a widespread and sustained Russian aerial campaign targeting Ukrainian rear areas and critical infrastructure. Ukrainian Air Force reports 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile launch and 175 Shahed/imitator UAVs launched from Russia overnight into May 23, with 150 UAVs neutralized (91 shot down, 59 lost/suppressed by EW) across eastern, western, northern, southern, and central Ukraine. This high volume of Russian drone attacks across a wide geographic area is confirmed.
  • Odesa Strikes: Explosions reported in Odesa, with initial reports of two ballistic missile hits in the port area, likely Iskander, following reconnaissance drone activity. This confirms Russian targeting of critical Black Sea port infrastructure.
  • Airfield Strike: Russian "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims a rocket strike destroyed three light aircraft on a Ukrainian airfield, used for counter-drone operations. This, if verified, is a direct blow to Ukrainian counter-UAV capabilities.
• Russian Claims of Territorial Gains (Confirmed by MoD Russia):
  • Radkovka (Kharkiv Oblast): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka in Kharkiv Oblast on the Kupiansk direction. This is corroborated by Russian military bloggers (Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad). This signifies continued Russian pressure on the Kupiansk axis.
  • Donetsk Oblast Villages: Russian MoD (Tsentr Group of Forces) claims the liberation of Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, and Novaya Poltavka in Donetsk People's Republic. This is significant, indicating further Russian advances in the central Donetsk axis.
  • Maryino (Sumy Oblast): Russian MoD (Sever Group of Forces) claims the liberation of Maryino in Sumy Oblast. This suggests Russian ground incursions or expansion of control in the Sumy border region.
• Russian Air-to-Air Missile Development (Propaganda/Claims): Russian military blogger Basurin claims US intelligence reports Russia is arming its air force with R-37M and KS-172 air-to-air missiles with nuclear warheads, capable of striking targets up to 300-400 km away. This is presented as a "technological and strategic breakthrough" to counter F-16 deliveries to Ukraine and ensure air superiority. While the claim of nuclear warheads is highly speculative and likely propaganda, the focus on long-range air-to-air missiles is consistent with reported Russian air doctrine.
• Ukrainian Counter-Drone Operations (Successes and Needs): Ukrainian unit "Posipaky" claims to have shot down a new Zala Z-20, an Orlan, and a Supercam reconnaissance UAV. This highlights Ukrainian success in targeting sophisticated Russian reconnaissance assets. They are also fundraising for two vehicles (target 650,000 UAH) to enhance their ability to destroy enemy reconnaissance drones, indicating continuous operational needs. STERNENKO also reports "Yokai" warriors shooting down a Zala Z-20, Orlan, and Supercam and fundraising for "Heavenly Rusoriz" to combat Russian drones.
• Ukrainian Force Rotation/Casualties (Donetsk): Ukrainian forces (Brigade "Khyzhak") on the Toretsk direction successfully completed a rotation under adverse conditions (rain, reduced drone activity) despite mortar fire and an M113 hitting mines. This highlights the dangers of frontline rotations and resilience of Ukrainian units.
• Russian Casualties (Confirmed by Ukraine): Ukrainian official Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (killed) of several Russian officers, including a reconnaissance battalion chief of staff, a battery commander, and multiple lieutenants. This provides specific, named Russian officer losses and underscores the ongoing high attrition rates.
• Russian Soldier "Heroism" Narrative (Dzerzhinsk Direction): Colonelcassad shares a video recounting the "heroic" death of Russian Sergeant Viktor Morozov ("Moroz") on May 15 on the Dzerzhinsk direction. He was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian kamikaze drones and an incendiary bomb, then targeted by enemy copters, refusing to surrender. This is a clear propaganda effort to boost morale and highlight Russian soldier resilience, implicitly acknowledging Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
• Russian Information Warfare and AI Use: Spanish special services report Russia attempted to influence elections in Moldova, Romania, and Georgia using fakes and AI-generated content to undermine pro-European sentiment and support for Ukraine. The "Doppelgänger" campaign (over 25,000 accounts, 220+ sites) is cited as an example, with AI generation becoming a "key tool." This highlights the growing sophistication and global reach of Russian information operations.
• Russian Internal Affairs - Militarization/Propaganda:
  • Youth Militarization: Police in Khabarovsk Krai held an event for elementary school cadets, presenting them with "K" shoulder boards and emphasizing patriotism, indicating continued Russian efforts to militarize youth and instill patriotic values from an early age.
  • Morale/Support: Russian military bloggers ("Two Majors", "Archangel Spetsnaza") are raising funds for "Mavics" (drones) and "Starlink" for Russian paratroopers on the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on crowdfunding to address equipment shortfalls for frontline units.
  • Civilian Life/Propaganda: Khabarovsk police wish subscribers a "peaceful weekend," highlighting the ongoing attempt to project normalcy within Russia.
  • Social Life/Culture: The Russian pop group "VIA Gra" is reportedly disbanding after 25 years. This is a minor cultural note.
• Ukrainian Civilian Preparedness/Adaptation: Zaporizhzhia is continuing in-person learning for children with special educational needs in a repaired shelter equipped with modern ventilation, internet, generators, and fire systems, capable of holding 76 people. This demonstrates continued efforts to adapt civilian infrastructure for safety and education amidst ongoing conflict. Kryvyi Rih has implemented a new centralized air raid alert system that only triggers for direct threats to the city/district, reducing false alarms and minimizing disruption to daily life. This is a significant improvement in civilian resilience and psychological well-being.
• Ukrainian Naval Infantry Day: Kyiv opened a memorial sign "Marine Infantry" on the Alley of Defenders of Ukraine, honoring marine infantry on their day, highlighting their role in the defense of Kyiv and other areas. This is a morale-boosting and commemorative event for Ukrainian armed forces.
• Russian Claims of Ukrainian Unit Destruction (Donetsk): "Voin DV" claims the destruction of a group from the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Otradnoye, Donetsk, during their attempted withdrawal, and later, an enemy vehicle in the same area via drone operators. This is a tactical claim of successful engagement and attrition.
• Political Statements on War Duration: Ukrainian Deputy Head of Zelenskyy's Office Vereshchuk stated, "The war is for a long time. Russia remains our enemy for decades or centuries. Our children must prepare and know what war is." This is a frank and long-term assessment of the conflict's nature from a Ukrainian official.
• Russian Diplomatic Stance (Lavrov): Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated that the Vatican cannot be a negotiation venue for "Orthodox countries" and that Zelenskyy's legitimacy remains a "key question" for any future peace documents. This reinforces Russia's uncompromising stance on negotiations and its efforts to delegitimize the Ukrainian government.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) Direction: Russian forces continue their offensive, claiming to have occupied several Ukrainian strongholds and advancing towards Poltavka, Popov Yar, and Shevchenko 1st. Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed reserves and are counter-attacking. Battles for strongholds continue south of the main road near Yablunivka and on its western outskirts. Intense engagements are reported on the western outskirts of Ulyanovka and near the northern outskirts of Myrolyubivka. Russian forces are attempting to consolidate their defense near Novoeconomicheskoe and Nikolaevka under Ukrainian fire. The elimination of a "pocket" northwest of Elizavetovka (south of Ulyanovka/Malinovka) is ongoing. "Voin DV" claims the destruction of a group from the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Otradnoye during its withdrawal, and later, an enemy vehicle in the same area. Colonelcassad shares a video of a cluster munition strike on a Ukrainian concentration in Druzhkovka.
  • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Russian Sergeant Viktor Morozov was reportedly killed by Ukrainian kamikaze drones and incendiary bombs on May 15.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces ("Yuzhnaya" Group) continue to interdict Ukrainian reinforcements, targeting them with tank fire (T-90M "Proryv") on approach routes to prevent them from reinforcing existing positions.
  • Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian "Khyzhak" Brigade infantry successfully rotated positions despite mortar fire and hitting mines, demonstrating continued defensive operations and resilience.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Kupiansk Direction: Russian MoD claims the liberation of Radkovka. Russian assault groups are attempting to consolidate positions in Kondrashovka and Malaya Shapkovka (north of Kupiansk).
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Maryino: Russian MoD claims the liberation of Maryino.
  • Shostka: The Russian Iskander strike on the Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka resulted in confirmed Ukrainian casualties.
• Russian Border Regions: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones for paratroopers on the Sumy direction, implying active engagements in this area.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Russian Air Attacks:
  • Massive Drone and Missile Barrage: Russian forces launched 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile and 175 Shahed/imitator UAVs overnight into May 23. This resulted in strikes across a wide range of Ukrainian oblasts (Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Odesa, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk).
  • Odesa Port Strikes: Two ballistic missile hits (likely Iskander) reported in the Odesa port area, causing a powerful explosion.
  • Airfield Strike: Claimed destruction of three Ukrainian light aircraft on an airfield.
  • Widespread KAB/UMPK Use: Continual use of guided aerial bombs across frontline and rear areas.
• Ukrainian Air Defense: Successfully neutralized 150 of 175 incoming Russian UAVs (91 shot down, 59 lost/suppressed by EW).
• Ukrainian Drone Attacks:
  • Deep Strikes: Continued large-scale drone attacks into Russian territory (e.g., claimed 271 drones shot down by Russia across multiple regions yesterday, with the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant in Oryol potentially hit).
  • Reconnaissance UAV Destruction: Ukrainian units "Posipaky" and "Yokai" claimed shooting down a new Zala Z-20, an Orlan, and a Supercam.
• Russian Air Capabilities (Propaganda): Claims of arming MiG-31 and Su-35 fighters with long-range air-to-air missiles (R-37M, KS-172) capable of countering F-16s. (Note: nuclear warhead claim is likely propaganda).

Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Civilian Safety: The new centralized air raid alert system in Kryvyi Rih aims to reduce disruption and psychological stress for civilians. Zaporizhzhia continues to adapt schools for safe learning in shelters, prioritizing children with special needs.
• Russian Internal Dissent: An 83-year-old blockade survivor in St. Petersburg was fined for an anti-war picket, highlighting ongoing suppression of dissent in Russia.
• Propaganda Efforts: Russian police in Khabarovsk promote a "peaceful weekend," while also engaging in youth militarization events. The honoring of a deceased Russian sergeant ("Moroz") serves to create a narrative of heroism.
• Long-Term Conflict Assessment: Ukrainian official's statement on Russia remaining an enemy for "decades or centuries" signifies the perceived long-term nature of the conflict and the need for societal adaptation.

Strategic Outlook

The strategic environment is marked by escalating Russian aerial and missile pressure across Ukraine, indicating a clear intent to degrade Ukraine's military and civilian infrastructure deeply within its territory. The reported liberation of villages in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts by Russia confirms their continued ground offensive capabilities and the strategic importance of these axes. Ukraine's continued deep drone strikes into Russia demonstrate its strategic intent to disrupt Russian military-industrial capacity and impose costs on the aggressor's home front.

The Russian Iskander strike on the Ukrainian training ground represents a significant strategic blow due to the confirmed casualties and the subsequent internal criticism within Ukraine's military leadership. This incident highlights critical OPSEC vulnerabilities and Russia's ability to conduct effective precision strikes against high-value training assets. Ukraine must immediately implement enhanced force protection and dispersal measures for training facilities.

The ongoing information war is intensifying, with Russia deploying sophisticated AI-generated fake content to influence elections in neighboring countries, underscoring the need for robust counter-disinformation efforts. Russia's strategic narrative of "fighting neo-Nazis" and its efforts to militarize youth are designed for long-term domestic support and force generation.

The contradictory reports regarding the prisoner exchange suggest ongoing complexities in humanitarian efforts and a lack of transparency, requiring careful monitoring. Ukraine's continued focus on strengthening its air defense capabilities (e.g., SAMP-T) and adapting civilian infrastructure for safety (e.g., new air raid alerts, school shelters) demonstrates its long-term resilience strategy.

The frank assessment by a Ukrainian official of a multi-decade or century-long conflict with Russia emphasizes the profound and enduring nature of the animosity, shaping long-term planning for national security and societal adaptation.

Risk Assessment

• Escalation Risk: High. The intensity of Russian aerial attacks, the targeting of critical infrastructure, and claims of advanced weaponry (e.g., long-range air-to-air missiles, albeit with likely propaganda regarding nuclear warheads) maintain a high risk of escalation.
• Humanitarian Impact: High. Widespread Russian drone and missile attacks continue to cause civilian casualties and damage civilian infrastructure, including power and water supply.
• Military Effectiveness:
  • Ukrainian: Effective in counter-drone operations (shooting down advanced Zala, Orlan, Supercam). Demonstrates resilience in frontline rotations. However, the Iskander strike on the training ground highlights a critical vulnerability and potentially significant personnel losses. Internal criticism of military command indicates ongoing pressure and potential for disunity.
  • Russian: Demonstrates sustained offensive capabilities on multiple ground axes (claiming Radkovka, Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Maryino). Maintains high volume of aerial attacks, posing significant threat. Claims of destroying Ukrainian aircraft are impactful if verified. Russian claims of developing long-range air-to-air missiles, even if exaggerated, highlight an investment in air superiority.
• Information Warfare Impact: High. Russia's sophisticated AI-driven disinformation campaigns pose a significant threat to democratic processes and international support for Ukraine. The "heroic death" narrative aims to boost Russian morale.
• Compliance with International Law: Continued allegations of Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and the previous unverified reports of "no quarter" for foreign fighters (Alaudinov's statement) continue to raise concerns about adherence to international humanitarian law.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense Enhancement: Critical and immediate priority for acquiring and deploying additional air defense systems, especially those capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (like SAMP-T) and effectively countering diverse drone threats.
• Counter-UAV Systems: Continued investment in and rapid deployment of advanced counter-UAV technologies, including jammers, interceptor drones, and ground-based air defense adapted for low-flying threats. Support for crowdfunding initiatives for such systems.
• Force Protection: Urgent re-evaluation and strengthening of force protection measures for all military installations, particularly training grounds and troop concentrations, to mitigate the impact of precision strikes. Dispersal and hardening of assets are critical.
• Deep Strike Capabilities (Ukraine): Maintain and expand resources for Ukrainian deep strike drone operations against Russian military-industrial targets and critical infrastructure.
• Information Warfare Countermeasures: Allocate resources to develop advanced AI-driven tools for detecting and countering Russian disinformation campaigns, and to bolster strategic communications to disseminate factual information and counter false narratives.
• Civilian Infrastructure Resilience: Continue investment in and expansion of safe civilian spaces (shelters, hardened schools) and resilient infrastructure (e.g., decentralized power, water).
• Personnel Management and Training: Sustain efforts to address personnel shortages (e.g., simplified return procedures for absentees) and invest in advanced training, emphasizing OPSEC and dispersed operations.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Enhanced Strike Impact Assessment: Immediately gather detailed post-strike assessments for Odesa port and the claimed airfield destruction, including satellite imagery and human intelligence, to confirm damage and verify Russian claims.
• Frontline Village Status Verification: Prioritize and integrate intelligence from multiple sources (satellite, drone, human intelligence) to verify Russian claims of liberating Radkovka, Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, and Maryino.
• Russian AAM Capabilities: Initiate intensified collection of signal intelligence and imagery on Russian MiG-31 and Su-35 deployments and missile loadouts, particularly related to the claimed R-37M and KS-172, to assess any actual new capabilities beyond propaganda.
• Ukrainian Military Internal Morale/Command: Systematically collect and analyze open-source information, particularly from Ukrainian military bloggers and officials, regarding internal criticisms, resignations, and disciplinary actions to assess their impact on military cohesion and operational effectiveness.
• Russian Internal Security/Militarization: Continuously monitor Russian domestic news and official statements regarding youth militarization programs and internal security measures, noting their scope and implications for long-term force generation and control.

Analysis and Modeling:

• Predictive Strike Analysis: Update models to predict future Russian air/missile strike patterns, incorporating the observed widespread attacks and renewed focus on Odesa port. Assess the effectiveness of current air defense deployments against these new patterns.
• Frontline Advance Simulation: Run simulations to model potential future Russian advances in the newly claimed areas (Radkovka, Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Maryino) and assess Ukrainian defensive counter-options.
• OPSEC Vulnerability Assessment: Conduct a thorough assessment of Ukrainian military OPSEC protocols, especially for training grounds and troop concentrations, based on the Iskander strike incident. Generate immediate recommendations for improvement.
• Disinformation Campaign Mapping: Map the current and emerging Russian disinformation campaigns, particularly those using AI and targeting European elections, to identify their actors, methods, and intended impacts.
• Long-Term Conflict Scenarios: Develop long-term strategic scenarios based on the Ukrainian official's statement about a multi-decade conflict, considering implications for resource planning, societal resilience, and international relations.

Reporting and Visualization:

• Updated Control Maps: Provide daily updated maps showing confirmed and claimed changes in territorial control, specifically highlighting Radkovka, Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, and Maryino.
• Aerial Attack Heatmaps: Generate real-time heatmaps illustrating the density and type of Russian drone and missile strikes across Ukraine, with overlays for civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
• OPSEC Best Practices Briefs: Prepare urgent, actionable briefs for all levels of command detailing improved OPSEC best practices, especially concerning troop movements and training.
• Disinformation Threat Briefs: Produce regular briefs on emerging Russian disinformation tactics, including AI use, for relevant government and intelligence agencies, recommending counter-strategies.
• Personnel Attrition Reports: Provide detailed reports on confirmed Ukrainian and assessed Russian personnel losses, including specific officer casualties, to inform manpower planning and strategic assessments.

Feedback Loop:

• Real-time Damage Assessment Feedback: Establish direct feedback channels with units and local authorities in areas affected by Russian strikes (e.g., Odesa, Sumy) to rapidly assess damage and adjust defensive priorities.
• OPSEC Implementation Verification: Implement a verification process to ensure new OPSEC protocols are being effectively adopted by military units and provide immediate feedback on any compliance gaps.
• Counter-Disinformation Effectiveness: Collect feedback from public information campaigns and international partners on the effectiveness of counter-disinformation efforts and adapt messaging accordingly.
• Unit Needs/Crowdfunding Integration: Establish a feedback loop with units and crowdfunding initiatives (e.g., for "Posipaky," "Two Majors") to understand immediate equipment needs and inform procurement decisions.

Updated Military Situation Overview

1. Command and Control: * Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov held a briefing, commenting on various topics including Trump's statements on Ukraine, potential new contacts, prisoner exchange, EU duties on Russian fertilizers, and the Russian President's schedule. * Peskov confirmed plans for Putin to visit Luhansk and Donetsk, to be implemented "in due time." * Peskov addressed the controversy around the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website, stating that the official emblem is "one" and includes crosses, attributing visual discrepancies to "scaling" issues. * The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a local official due to her daughter's "unacceptable" statements regarding the "Special Military Operation," highlighting the government's efforts to control narratives. * New: Ukrainian official Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (killed) of several Russian officers, including a reconnaissance battalion chief of staff, a battery commander, and multiple lieutenants. * New: Ukrainian Deputy Head of Zelenskyy's Office Vereshchuk stated, "The war is for a long time. Russia remains our enemy for decades or centuries. Our children must prepare and know what war is." * New: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated that the Vatican cannot be a negotiation venue for "Orthodox countries" and that Zelenskyy's legitimacy remains a "key question" for any future peace documents.

2. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics: * Donetsk Oblast: Intense ground combat continues on the Druzhkovka direction, with Russian units reportedly attempting to liquidate a "pocket" in the Romanovka-Zarya area, engaging in battles for Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka), and initiating fighting for Ihnativka. Russian forces are pushing towards Yablunivka from Oleksandropol. A Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV near Dyliyivka on the Bakhmut direction. Active combat operations are reported around Artemovsk and Ozarayanovka, with Russian forces claiming tactical gains and expanding their zone of control west of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal. Colonelcassad claims destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck in Alekseyevka, a Humvee armored vehicle in Novoukrainka, and an octocopter in Udachnoye on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Russian artillery units are claimed to be destroying enemy personnel on the Shakhtersk direction. * New: Russian MoD (Tsentr Group of Forces) claims the liberation of Aleksandropol, Novoolenovka, and Novaya Poltavka in Donetsk People's Republic. * New: Russian forces continue their offensive in Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction, claiming to have occupied several Ukrainian strongholds and advancing towards Poltavka, Popov Yar, and Shevchenko 1st. Battles are reported on the western outskirts of Ulyanovka and near Myrolyubivka. * New: "Voin DV" claims the destruction of a group from the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Otradnoye, Donetsk, during their attempted withdrawal, and later, an enemy vehicle in the same area via drone operators. * New: Colonelcassad shares a video of a cluster munition strike on a Ukrainian concentration in Druzhkovka. * New: Ukrainian forces (Brigade "Khyzhak") on the Toretsk direction successfully completed a rotation under adverse conditions (rain, reduced drone activity) despite mortar fire and an M113 hitting mines. * New: Russian Sergeant Viktor Morozov ("Moroz") was reportedly killed by Ukrainian kamikaze drones and an incendiary bomb on May 15 on the Dzerzhinsk direction. * New: Russian forces ("Yuzhnaya" Group) continue to interdict Ukrainian reinforcements to Chasiv Yar, targeting them with tank fire (T-90M "Proryv") on approach routes. * Sumy Oblast: Russian MoD claims drone pilots of the Sever Group of Forces eliminated Ukrainian militants in a forested area of Sumy region. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces engaged Ukrainian forces attempting rotation near the Sumy direction with an ATGM strike on an armored vehicle (possibly Kozak). Evacuations are ongoing in border regions due to increased shelling. * New: Russian MoD (Sever Group of Forces) claims the liberation of Maryino in Sumy Oblast. * New: The Russian Iskander strike on a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka resulted in confirmed Ukrainian casualties. * Kharkiv Oblast: Russian tactical aviation active on the northeastern direction, posing a threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. Video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian Geran/Gerbera drone strike on a target in Chuguev. Ukrainian State Border Guard Service claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) heavy flamethrower system in the Vovchansk direction. * New: Russian MoD (Zapad Group of Forces) claims the liberation of Radkovka in Kharkiv Oblast on the Kupiansk direction. Russian assault groups are attempting to consolidate positions in Kondrashovka and Malaya Shapkovka (north of Kupiansk). * Odesa Oblast (Izmail Port): A large fire with an explosion was reported in the port of Izmail. * New: Explosions reported in Odesa, with initial reports of two ballistic missile hits in the port area, likely Iskander, following reconnaissance drone activity. * Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian sources claim completion of key infrastructure (distribution hub, compressor station) near Mariupol and Berdyansk to connect Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Russia's energy system. Civilian casualties are reported from Russian artillery shelling in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district. Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 360 Russian strikes on 16 settlements over the past day, including 36 aviation strikes, 149 drone attacks, 9 MLRS shellings, and 166 artillery strikes. Russian MoD video claims an Orlan-10 UAV successfully identified and targeted Ukrainian artillery (2S19), multiple vehicles, and a Ukrainian UAV launch pad in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, leading to destruction and disruption of communications and Ukrainian rotations. * Kursk Oblast (Russia): Colonelcassad claims Russian airborne forces inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces attempting to infiltrate near Tetkino. A Russian UAV platoon commander, "Dos," from the 352nd Regiment, detailed operations in Русское Поречное, emphasizing continuous drone use. * Bryansk Oblast (Russia): One fatality and one injury reported in Kamensky Khutor, Klimovsky district, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims air defense shot down eight Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast overnight. * Riazan Oblast (Russia): A Riazan oil refinery was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones, with fragments falling on the territory. * Tver Oblast (Russia): FSB claims to have detained two teenagers for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. * Krasnoyarsk Krai (Russia): A civilian reportedly attempted to damage a power plant. * Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): A recruitment advertisement for "named Artillery Divisions" highlights efforts to bolster military manpower through regional recruitment.

3. Aerial and Naval Activity: * Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread from both sides. * Ukrainian Attacks: Ukrainian forces, including the 421st Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Sapsan" and the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Raid", claim successful FPV drone strikes against Russian communication antennas, a Buk-M1 SAM system, an Uragan MLRS, other armored vehicles, and personnel in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian drones are reported to have caused 1 fatality and 1 injury in Bryansk Oblast. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) in the Vovchansk direction. A Riazan oil refinery was also reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. * New: Ukrainian Air Force reports 150 of 175 Russian UAVs (Shahed and imitators) were neutralized overnight into May 23 (91 shot down, 59 lost/suppressed by EW). * New: Ukrainian unit "Posipaky" claims to have shot down a new Zala Z-20, an Orlan, and a Supercam reconnaissance UAV. STERNENKO also reports "Yokai" warriors shooting down a Zala Z-20, Orlan, and Supercam. * New: Russia claims 271 Ukrainian drones shot down over various Russian regions over the past day, with 159 claimed shot down over Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts alone between 04:00 and 08:00 Moscow time. * Russian Attacks: Ukrainian Air Force reports ongoing Russian strike UAV activity, particularly in Sumy Oblast (observed moving south/southwest, some then diverting to Poltava Oblast) and Kharkiv Oblast. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down 89 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs, two over Oryol, three over Bryansk, and one over Belgorod Oblasts. Russian FPV drones are actively used for targeting, including claimed hits on fleeing personnel. Russian MoD video claims an Orlan-10 UAV successfully identified and targeted Ukrainian artillery, vehicles, and a Ukrainian UAV launch pad in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian military bloggers showcase videos of Russian FPV drone operations, including ramming Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. "Two Majors" advertises "NABAT V.2.C" drone detector for detection and profiling of enemy drones. * New: Colonelcassad details extensive Russian drone strikes (Geranium/Gerbera) across Ukraine from May 22-23, hitting Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. * Missile Activity: * Russian: Ukrainian monitoring groups report an increase in Tu-95MS bomber activity (9 units - 5x Olenya, 2x Engels-2, 2x Dyagilevo) and ongoing arming with cruise missiles, signaling preparation for a massive missile strike. Ukrainian Air Force reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down four U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs. Alex Parker Returns claims two Iskander strikes successfully destroyed a "nomadic Patriot system" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. US intelligence reports Russia is expanding its nuclear forces, adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles (likely a special version of the R-37M). * New: Ukrainian Air Force reports 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile launch from Rostov Oblast overnight into May 23. * New: Explosions reported in Odesa with initial reports of two ballistic missile hits in the port area, likely Iskander. * New: Colonelcassad details multiple Russian Iskander-M strikes on Kirovohrad and Zaporizhzhia, and widespread UMPK (guided bomb) strikes across various oblasts on May 22-23. * New: Russian "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims a rocket strike destroyed three light aircraft on a Ukrainian airfield. * New: Basurin claims US intelligence reports Russia is arming its air force with R-37M and KS-172 air-to-air missiles, including claims of nuclear warheads, with capabilities up to 300-400 km. (Note: nuclear warhead claim is likely propaganda). * Ukrainian: Unspecified missile activity reported. * Naval Activity: A "serious accident" involving a new 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer losing balance and being damaged during its launch in Chongjin, North Korea, with Kim Jong Un reportedly furious. A large fire with an explosion was reported in the port of Izmail, Odesa Oblast, indicating a potential strike on critical port infrastructure.

4. Casualties and Losses: * Ukrainian Estimated Russian Losses: Ukrainian forces claim destruction of Russian communication antennas, a Buk-M1 SAM system, an Uragan MLRS, a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) system, other armored vehicles, and personnel by FPV drones. * New: Ukrainian official Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (killed) of several Russian officers, including a reconnaissance battalion chief of staff, a battery commander, and multiple lieutenants. * New: Ukrainian units "Posipaky" and "Yokai" claimed shooting down a new Zala Z-20, an Orlan, and a Supercam reconnaissance UAV. * New: "Voin DV" claims the destruction of a group from the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Otradnoye, Donetsk, and later, an enemy vehicle in the same area. * Russian Estimated Ukrainian Losses: Colonelcassad claims the "liquidation" of several Ukrainian officers (Lt. Col. Nikolay Myshkin, Maj. Ruslan Grudinkin, Maj. Vitaly Gasumyan, Sr. Lt. Vadim Vikulin, Lt. Oleg Poluyan, Jr. Lt. Nikolay Leontiev, and Maj. Alexander Polonchuk). Russian sources also claim significant Ukrainian casualties near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down four U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs and 89 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs, and an Iskander-M successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system. Russian forces claim taking a Ukrainian serviceman prisoner near Ozarayanovka. * New: Russian MoD (Sever Group of Forces) claims over 1,180 troops, 5 tanks, 14 armored vehicles, 67 motor vehicles, 34 field artillery guns, 3 M777 howitzers, 3 EW stations, and 3 ammunition depots neutralized in its area of responsibility (past week). * New: Russian MoD (Zapad Group of Forces) claims over 1,585 troops, 3 tanks, 13 armored vehicles (2 M113), 65 motor vehicles, 11 field artillery guns (6 NATO-made), 7 EW stations, and 15 ammunition depots lost by enemy (past week). * New: Russian MoD (Yug Group of Forces) claims over 1,665 troops, 2 tanks, 24 armored vehicles (2 HMMWV, 3 M113), 29 motor vehicles, 16 field artillery guns (5 Western-made), 13 EW stations, and 15 ammunition depots neutralized (past week). * New: Russian MoD (Tsentr Group of Forces) claims over 2,875 troops, 1 tank, 42 armored vehicles, 39 motor vehicles, and 11 field artillery guns lost by enemy (past week). * New: Russian "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" claims a rocket strike destroyed three light aircraft on a Ukrainian airfield. * New: Colonelcassad details the "heroic" death of Russian Sergeant Viktor Morozov, killed by Ukrainian drones and incendiary bombs. * Civilian Casualties: One fatality and one injury reported in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Civilian casualty reported in Primorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, from Russian artillery shelling. Rybar reports a "terrorist attack" in Washington D.C., killing two Israeli embassy staff. * New: Russian drone attack caused damage to a private house in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, and resulted in five casualties, including a 17-year-old boy, a 3-year-old girl, a 42-year-old mother (all acute stress reaction), a 13-year-old son (cut foot), and a 30-year-old man (cut eyebrow). * New: Fire at the "Energiya" plant in Yelets (Lipetsk Oblast) increased the number of injured workers to nine.

5. Humanitarian Situation: * Russian media reports on a mobilized Russian soldier denied disability status despite severe injuries, highlighting social support issues for veterans in Russia. * Ukraine announced increased state orders for military specialists and new training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists for wounded service members. Over 500,000 digital veteran's certificates are now available in Ukraine's Diia app. * The "I Want My Own" project reports difficulties in exchanging Ukrainian collaborators for Ukrainian prisoners. * New: Zaporizhzhia continues in-person learning for children with special educational needs in a repaired shelter equipped with modern ventilation, internet, generators, and fire systems.

6. International and Political Developments: * US-Ukraine Aid: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US will analyze all aid provided to Ukraine and address any instances of "illegal appropriation or manipulation." * Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy had a "good conversation" with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, discussing pressure on Russia and continued support. Greece will participate in the Ukraine-South-East Europe summit. Zelenskyy also spoke with North Macedonian President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova. Peskov stated that the Vatican is ready to host negotiations but no specific agreements have been made, and that Russia is interested in a rapid "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange. Ukrainian sources provide analysis of Trump's conversation with Putin from a Ukrainian perspective, highlighting Trump's apparent trust in Putin's desire for peace and his views on sanctions. * New: Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) contradict Trump's announcement of a completed prisoner exchange, stating the process is still ongoing. * New: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated that the Vatican cannot be a negotiation venue for "Orthodox countries" and that Zelenskyy's legitimacy remains a "key question" for any future peace documents. * New: Bloomberg (via Slavyangrad) reports Americans are requesting Russia not send "hardliners" like Medinsky to future negotiations. * Sanctions: Peskov stated that Europe would receive more expensive and lower-quality fertilizers due to new EU tariffs on Russian products. Finland will supply Ukraine with €90 million worth of 155mm heavy ammunition purchased using proceeds from frozen Russian assets through the European Peace Facility. * Arctic Tensions: Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide called for increased NATO presence in the Arctic to counter Russia. * Internal Russian Issues: Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports. A 23-year-old student in Mari El faces criminal charges for anti-war graffiti and was allegedly beaten by security forces. Peskov addressed the public controversy regarding the depiction of the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website. Reported neglect of a severely wounded mobilized soldier regarding disability status and benefits. FSB claims to have detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. A civilian also reportedly attempted to damage a power plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai. The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a local official due to her daughter's statement regarding the "Special Military Operation." Rybar reports on a "terrorist attack" in Washington D.C., killing two Israeli embassy staff. Discussions are emerging in the State Duma about the legal status of the USSR. * New: Spanish special services report Russia attempted to influence elections in Moldova, Romania, and Georgia using fakes and AI-generated content to undermine pro-European sentiment and support for Ukraine. The "Doppelgänger" campaign is cited as an example. * Internal Ukrainian Issues: Political criticism and calls for military leadership changes are voiced by Ukrainian MPs regarding tactical decisions leading to casualties, particularly concerning the Iskander strike on a training ground in Sumy. The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025. A battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, Oleksandr Shyrshyn, has publicly submitted his resignation due to what he describes as "doomed to failure" tasks leading to "unjustified losses" on the Ukrainian-Russian border, ignored appeals to command, and a perceived culture of suppressing dissent, indicating internal command failures and a breakdown in problem-solving mechanisms. Zaporizhzhia is observing a daily minute of silence and national anthem at 9:00 AM to honor fallen soldiers and civilians, a morale-boosting and unifying ritual. Ukraine is also actively building and expanding shelters in kindergartens and schools, equipping them with generators, heating, and water purification to ensure continuity of education and safety amidst conflict. The verdict against former Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Onyshchenko in a corruption case was overturned, despite a recent video of him with Jean-Claude Van Damme expressing support for Putin. * New: Kryvyi Rih implemented a new centralized air raid alert system, only triggering for direct threats to the city/district. * New: Kyiv opened a memorial sign "Marine Infantry" on the Alley of Defenders of Ukraine, honoring marine infantry on their day. * New: Ukrainian Deputy Head of Zelenskyy's Office Vereshchuk stated, "The war is for a long time. Russia remains our enemy for decades or centuries. Our children must prepare and know what war is." * Heightened Airspace Restrictions in Russia: "Carpet" plans (airspace closures) were introduced at Kaluga, Yaroslavl (Tunoshna), and Kostroma (Sokerkino) airports, and a temporary air hazard alert was declared in Lipetsk Oblast, indicating heightened security concerns.

7. Internal Russian Issues: * Temporary restrictions on flight operations at Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Vnukovo airports in Moscow, with Sheremetyevo resuming normal operations. * A 23-year-old student in Mari El faces criminal charges for anti-war graffiti and was allegedly beaten by security forces. * Peskov addressed the public controversy regarding the depiction of the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website. * Reported neglect of a severely wounded mobilized soldier regarding disability status and benefits. * FSB claims to have detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. * A civilian reportedly attempted to damage a power plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai. * The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed the head of Nyuksen Municipal District due to "unacceptable" statements made by her daughter regarding the "Special Military Operation." * A corpse was found in the head of the "Motherland Calls!" sculpture in Volgograd, unrelated to military actions. * The State Duma is considering the legal status of the USSR. * New: Police in Khabarovsk Krai held an event for elementary school cadets, presenting them with "K" shoulder boards and emphasizing patriotism. * New: Russian military bloggers ("Two Majors", "Archangel Spetsnaza") are raising funds for "Mavics" (drones) and "Starlink" for Russian paratroopers on the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on crowdfunding to address equipment shortfalls for frontline units. * New: The Russian pop group "VIA Gra" is reportedly disbanding after 25 years.

8. Ukrainian Force Composition and Training: * Ukrainian Air Assault Forces' 421st Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Sapsan" and 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Raid" demonstrated effective FPV drone operations. The State Border Guard Service also demonstrated effective FPV drone operations. * The General Staff of Ukraine announced a 20% increase in state orders for military specialist training and new training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists. * Ukrainian forces are continuing to use advanced drone systems. * The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is actively fundraising for drones and equipment. * Over 500,000 digital veteran's certificates are now available in Ukraine's Diia app, indicating significant numbers of combat veterans and war-disabled personnel. * New: Ukrainian unit "Posipaky" claims to have shot down a new Zala Z-20, an Orlan, and a Supercam reconnaissance UAV, and are fundraising for two vehicles to enhance their capabilities. STERNENKO also reports "Yokai" warriors shooting down a Zala Z-20, Orlan, and Supercam and fundraising for "Heavenly Rusoriz." * New: Ukrainian forces (Brigade "Khyzhak") on the Toretsk direction successfully completed a rotation under adverse conditions, highlighting their resilience. * New: Kyiv opened a memorial sign "Marine Infantry" on the Alley of Defenders of Ukraine.

9. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance: * Alleged Russian cybersecurity breaches targeting Ukrainian military personnel and a drone production facility (previously reported). * Controversy around the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website highlights information control and symbolism. * The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine spokesperson stated that Ukrainian border surveillance systems were not compromised and no reports of hacked cameras from adjacent countries were received. * New: Spanish special services report Russia attempted to influence elections in Moldova, Romania, and Georgia using fakes and AI-generated content. * New: FSB claims to have arrested a Russian citizen in Kaluga Oblast for providing Ukrainian special services with data on Russian air defense facilities.

10. Human Oversight and Decision Authority: * Not directly addressed in the new messages.

11. War Crimes Allegations: * CNN reports that radio intercepts of Russian occupiers indicate orders to kill Ukrainian military personnel taken prisoner, with drone footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast supporting claims of probable executions. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating.

12. Strategic Narratives: * A Russian military blogger interviewed a UAV platoon commander, "Dos," who details operations in Kursk Oblast and his motivation, presenting a narrative of justified defense and effective operations. * New: Colonelcassad details the "heroic" death of Russian Sergeant Viktor Morozov, killed by Ukrainian drones, as a propaganda effort to boost morale. * New: Police in Khabarovsk Krai promote a "peaceful weekend" and engage in youth militarization, aiming to project normalcy and patriotism. * New: Ukrainian Deputy Head of Zelenskyy's Office Vereshchuk's statement on the war's long-term nature sets a serious and enduring strategic narrative. * New: Lavrov's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and the Vatican as a negotiation venue reinforce Russia's uncompromising stance and attempt to delegitimize the Ukrainian government. * New: A Russian Duma deputy openly stated the "SMO" aimed to create a "united union state" of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, openly revealing the long-term goal of USSR 2.0.

13. Military Logistics and Support: * New: Ukrainian unit "Posipaky" is fundraising for two vehicles to enhance their drone operations. * New: Russian military bloggers ("Two Majors", "Archangel Spetsnaza") are raising funds for "Mavics" (drones) and "Starlink" for Russian paratroopers on the Sumy direction, indicating continued reliance on crowdfunding to address equipment shortfalls for frontline units.