Situation Report

Major Updates

• Intensified Ukrainian Drone Activity Deep into Russia: Ukrainian UAV attacks on Russian territory have intensified significantly. Russian authorities confirm the suppression of UAVs over Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, resulting in debris falling in an industrial zone and causing a fire and necessitating evacuations. Mobile internet restrictions have been imposed in Yelets to enhance anti-UAV defense. Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions, including a substantial concentration of 35 over the Moscow region. TASS further reports the downing of three additional drones targeting Moscow. This widespread and sustained Ukrainian drone offensive deep within Russian territory, now confirmed to have caused damage and disruption, indicates a deliberate strategy to impose costs on Russian infrastructure and challenge their air defenses. A Russian military blogger, НгП раZVедка, warns that the current drone attack is merely a "rehearsal" for an even more massive future attack aimed at overwhelming Russian air defenses.
• Persistent and Widespread Russian Drone Activity Across Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed-type UAVs are active across Ukraine, indicating a coordinated and extensive attack. Updates report:
  • 11 Shaheds at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading northwest.
  • 10 Shaheds in the vicinity of Balakliya, heading towards Zlatopil.
  • A group in central Kharkiv Oblast moving southwest.
  • UAVs in western Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Several groups on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts heading north.
  • A group in northern Odesa Oblast moving northwest. This expands upon earlier reports of groups heading towards Kharkiv Oblast from Luhansk, and critically, two groups on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and in southern Poltava Oblast, both directly targeting Kremenchuk. The widespread air raid alert map confirms broad aerial threats across much of eastern, central, and southern Ukraine. This signifies a highly dynamic and extensive drone threat with multiple vectors, likely aimed at overwhelming air defenses and targeting critical infrastructure (like the Kremenchuk oil refinery, a frequent target) and major cities.
• Russian Military Assessment of New BT-3F APC: State tests have begun for the BT-3F, an armored personnel carrier designed for naval infantry based on the BMP-3F. While Rostec highlights its amphibious capability and 12.7mm machine gun, a critical analysis from the prominent Russian military blogger Colonelcassad highlights significant drawbacks: low anti-mine protection, inconvenient troop ingress/egress due to engine placement, and weak armor. The blogger notes that current naval infantry operations are effectively conventional ground operations, making the BT-3F's design largely outdated for modern combat, lacking adequate additional armor for "fields of Donbas" instead of "water obstacles." This suggests potential limitations in future Russian armored capabilities and the challenges of adapting older designs to current battlefield realities, indicating a potential weakness in their ongoing equipment modernization efforts compared to current battlefield demands.
• Zaluzhnyi's Sobering Strategic Assessment: Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's Ambassador to Britain, stated that Ukraine cannot expect a "miracle" or "white swan" to restore its 1991 or 2022 borders. He emphasized that as long as the enemy possesses resources to strike Ukrainian territory and conduct offensive actions, the war will continue, underscoring that Russia's ability to wage war is entirely dependent on its available resources. This provides a sobering, professional assessment of the long-term nature of the conflict and the imperative for sustained resource generation and realistic objectives.
• North Korean Destroyer Accident: TASS reports a new North Korean destroyer did not sustain serious damage in a recent accident. While not directly linked to the conflict, this minor update indicates ongoing naval development activities in North Korea, a potential arms supplier to Russia.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in settlements such as Bagatyr, Odrane, and Vilne Pole, highlighting sustained enemy pressure. Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, allegedly reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Chasov Yar Direction: Russian forces report advances north of Chasov Yar, near the Seversky Donets – Donbass Canal, with fighting continuing within the city. Russia is reportedly accumulating forces for further offensives.
  • Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the areas of Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk, demonstrating intense pressure on this front.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Positional battles continue around Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, Shcherbakov, and Kamenskoye, with no significant changes to the Line of Combat Contact (LBS). Ukrainian forces repelled four Russian attacks in Shcherbaky, Stepove, and towards Pavlivka on the Orikhiv direction. Russian forces attempted three unsuccessful advances towards Ukrainian positions near Vysoke (Huliaipilskyi direction). Russian units attempted one advance on the Dnipro River Direction but were unsuccessful.
• Sumy Oblast: Russia claims repelling another Ukrainian border breakthrough attempt near Noviy Put, with Ukraine losing armored vehicles and personnel, and claims further advances in Loknya.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka, indicating persistent Russian pressure but successful Ukrainian defense.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian units attempted one advance but were unsuccessful.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Widespread Russian Drone Attacks (Ukraine):
  • New groups of Russian Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast are heading towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Two groups of Shaheds are reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and in southern Poltava Oblast, both heading directly towards Kremenchuk, indicating a high-priority target.
  • Another group of Shaheds is moving from southern Mykolaiv Oblast northwest.
  • UPDATED: Additional groups of Shahed drones have been reported: 11 on the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading northwest; 10 in the vicinity of Balakliya, heading towards Zlatopil. Later updates indicate a group in central Kharkiv Oblast moving southwest, UAVs in western Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast, several groups on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts heading north, and a group in northern Odesa Oblast moving northwest.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued for these regions, with specific mention of "loudness" in Kremenchuk. The air raid alert map confirms widespread alerts across eastern, central, and southern Ukraine (Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts, including Crimea).
  • Ukrainian Air Force is actively monitoring these movements, providing real-time updates.
• Massive Ukrainian Drone Attacks (Russia):
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight (00:00-05:30 MSK) across Russian regions.
  • This includes 35 UAVs over the Moscow region, 14 over Oryol, 12 over Kursk, 11 over Belgorod, 10 over Tula, 9 over Kaluga, 7 over Voronezh, 3 over Lipetsk, 3 over Smolensk, and 1 over Bryansk.
  • UPDATED: UAVs were suppressed over Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, with debris causing a fire in an industrial zone and requiring evacuation. Mobile internet restrictions are in place in the city to enhance anti-UAV defense effectiveness. Russian military blogger, НгП раZVедка, warns that the current drone attack is merely a "rehearsal" for an even more massive future attack aimed at overwhelming Russian air defenses.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports explosions heard in Tula and Yelets (battery factory attacked, fire), and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed three more drones shot down en route to Moscow.
• Russian Lancet Drone Strikes: A video shows precision Lancet drone strikes targeting a Ukrainian tank on a closed firing position in Mirnoye, DPR.
• Russian FPV Drone Operations: A video from the "Far Eastern Winds" unit showcases FPV drone operations on the Shakhtyorsk direction, destroying a pickup truck, an ammunition depot, a temporary deployment point, a communications antenna, an artillery piece, and an armored vehicle. This highlights versatile targeting and effective battle damage assessment by Russian forces.
• Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait continues.
• North Korean Naval Accident: A new North Korean destroyer reportedly did not receive serious damage in a recent accident.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Ukrainian Recruitment: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces is actively recruiting sappers, highlighting the ongoing need for specialized personnel to clear mines and unexploded ordnance.
• Russian Economic Strain: Reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items (onions: 87.2%, cabbage: 56.8%) in Russia over the past year, citing reduced harvests and lower quality produce. This suggests internal economic pressures and potential food security concerns.
• Israeli Embassy Incident: Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near the Jewish Museum in Washington. A suspect has been detained, and former US President Trump described the incident as based on antisemitism.

Strategic Outlook

The strategic landscape is dominated by the relentless aerial attrition campaign waged by both sides. Ukraine's ability to conduct large-scale drone attacks deep into Russian territory (e.g., 105 UAVs claimed shot down overnight, with a significant concentration over Moscow, and confirmed impacts in Lipetsk Oblast) demonstrates a persistent capability to impose costs and challenge Russian air defenses. The warning from a Russian military blogger about a future, even larger attack highlights the anticipated escalation of this aerial campaign. Simultaneously, Russia continues its multi-directional drone attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure like Kremenchuk, aiming to degrade Ukraine's economic and military-industrial potential. The sheer number of active Russian drone groups currently reported and the widespread air raid alert map indicate a sophisticated and large-scale attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

On the ground, Russia maintains persistent offensive pressure across multiple axes, with new claims of advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopavlivka direction, and continued fighting in Chasov Yar and border incursions in Sumy. This indicates a sustained effort to expand territorial control. The high attrition rates reported by both Ukrainian and Russian general staffs underscore the brutal and costly nature of the conflict, demanding continuous replenishment of personnel and materiel. The negative assessment of the new Russian BT-3F APC during state trials suggests potential long-term challenges for Russia in fielding modern, survivable armored vehicles suited for the current conflict's demands, which could impact the sustainability of their ground offensives.

Diplomatically, the reported private assessment by Donald Trump that Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning is a critical signal. This potentially undermines Western unity on sanctions and aid, reinforcing Russia's resolve for prolonged conflict and complicating future negotiation efforts. The G7's joint communique, however, provides a counter-signal by reiterating unwavering support for Ukraine, linking frozen Russian assets to reparations, and excluding Russian allies from profiting from Ukraine's reconstruction.

Russia's internal strategic focus is evident in the appointment of a combat-experienced Commander-in-Chief for its Land Forces, signaling a prioritization of battlefield effectiveness. However, internal economic pressures (rising food prices) and ongoing cyber warfare against Russian state services indicate domestic vulnerabilities. Valerii Zaluzhnyi's professional assessment of the war's long-term nature, emphasizing that Ukraine cannot rely on "miracles" for territorial restoration, provides a realistic foundation for Ukrainian strategic planning, highlighting the need for sustained effort and resource generation. The ongoing need for specialized personnel like sappers in Ukraine further underscores the long-term and complex challenges.

Risk Assessment

• Escalation Risk: High. The persistent large-scale drone attacks by both sides, particularly deep strikes into each other's territory, carry a significant risk of further escalation and retaliatory actions. The explicit warning from a Russian military blogger about a "most massive raid" further elevates this risk. Russia's continued ground advances, including claims of reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border, also increase this risk.
• Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: High. Continued widespread drone attacks and ground offensives will result in further civilian casualties and damage to critical infrastructure, particularly power and industrial facilities in targeted areas like Kremenchuk and Kharkiv. The confirmed fire in Lipetsk Oblast due to drone debris underscores this.
• Logistical Strain: High. The high attrition rates for equipment and personnel reported by both sides will place immense strain on logistical chains for resupply, repair, and medical evacuation. The internal assessment of the BT-3F's outdated design also highlights a potential future deficiency in armored vehicle provision.
• Information Warfare Impact: Extreme. Trump's reported private assessment of Putin's mindset could be exploited by Russia to undermine Western resolve and unity. The G7's counter-narrative and sanctions efforts are crucial but face headwinds. Russia's internal information operations (e.g., showcasing military feats) aim to bolster morale amidst economic pressures. The explicit warning of a future massive drone attack, even if propaganda, contributes to psychological warfare.
• Internal Russian Stability: Moderate to High. Rising food prices, coupled with ongoing cyberattacks on state services, could potentially increase public discontent if not managed effectively by the regime.
• Ukrainian Manpower and Specialization: High. The ongoing recruitment for specialized roles like sappers indicates critical personnel needs for specific battlefield functions, which must be met to sustain operations.
• Geopolitical Alignment: Increased uncertainty regarding US foreign policy under a potential Trump administration could significantly impact future military aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia.
• Cybersecurity Threats: High. The reported large-scale DDoS attacks on Russian state services indicate active and potentially escalating cyber warfare, posing a risk to both sides' critical infrastructure.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense Augmentation: Immediate and continuous prioritization of air defense systems and munitions, especially to protect critical industrial centers (Kremenchuk) and major urban areas (Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk). Mobile air defense units are crucial for countering widespread drone attacks. The current multi-directional drone threat and the explicit warning of future massive attacks demand robust and layered point defense capabilities.
• Drone Capabilities: Continued investment in the production, deployment, and operational training for both offensive (FPV) and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine. Simultaneously, resources must be allocated to counter Russian FPV drone tactics and new drone models like the "Juliet."
• Counter-Artillery and EW Systems: Provision of effective counter-battery radar and electronic warfare systems to counter Russian artillery and disrupt their drone operations.
• Personnel Recruitment and Training: Dedicated resources for recruitment and specialized training, particularly for sappers, to address critical skill gaps.
• Economic Resilience Support: International financial and economic support for Ukraine's long-term stability and resilience, as outlined in the G7 communique, is crucial.
• Cyber Defense: Continued and enhanced investment in cybersecurity infrastructure and expert personnel to defend against sophisticated state-backed cyber threats.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Real-time Drone Tracking: Enhance real-time data feeds and processing for tracking all incoming and outgoing drone activity. Prioritize data from Mykolaiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, specifically focusing on trajectories towards Kremenchuk and other industrial/urban targets. Correlate drone movements with air raid alerts for comprehensive threat assessment.
• Ground Movement Verification: Utilize satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence to independently verify Russian claims of advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and other contested territories.
• Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Rigorously collect BDA for both Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia (e.g., Lipetsk Oblast industrial zone fire) and Russian strikes in Ukraine, cross-referencing with local reports and official claims (e.g., 105 UAVs shot down over Russia).
• Economic Indicators: Systematically collect data on Russian internal economic indicators, particularly consumer prices for essential goods, to assess domestic stability and potential impacts on war effort.
• Cyber Threat Intelligence: Integrate real-time intelligence on cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia to anticipate and mitigate threats.
• Foreign Leader Statements: Closely monitor and analyze statements from key international figures (e.g., Trump, G7 leaders) and their reported private assessments for shifts in diplomatic postures that may affect military aid or negotiation prospects.
• Equipment Trials Assessment: Actively monitor and analyze information on Russian military equipment trials (e.g., BT-3F APC) and internal expert assessments to project future capabilities and vulnerabilities. This includes detailed analysis of publicly available Russian military blogger assessments of new equipment.
• Information Warfare Signals: Analyze and track narratives from military bloggers (e.g., warning of "most massive raids") to understand potential future intentions or psychological operations.

Analysis and Modeling:

• Drone Attack Pattern Analysis: Develop more sophisticated models to predict Russian drone swarm attack patterns, target selection (especially for Kremenchuk and other industrial sites), and their methods of overwhelming air defenses, considering the multi-directional and widespread nature of current attacks and the explicit warning of future "massive raids."
• Ground Offensive Projection: Update predictive models for Russian ground offensives, incorporating current advances (e.g., Novopavlivka direction) and force accumulation patterns (e.g., Chasov Yar).
• Attrition Impact Assessment: Continuously analyze reported personnel and equipment losses for both sides to assess their impact on combat effectiveness and sustainability. Incorporate insights from new equipment assessments (e.g., BT-3F).
• Force Composition Analysis: Analyze Russian military appointments and internal economic indicators to project potential shifts in strategic priorities and resource allocation.
• Cybersecurity Impact Assessment: Model the potential impact of ongoing cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and military command and control systems for both sides.

Reporting and Visualization:

• Dynamic Threat Maps: Continuously update dynamic maps displaying real-time drone trajectories, air raid alerts, and areas of significant ground combat activity, with explicit warnings for high-risk targets like Kremenchuk. Ensure the widespread air raid map is integrated and frequently updated.
• Attrition Dashboards: Create clear and concise dashboards visualizing daily and cumulative personnel and equipment losses for both sides.
• Strategic Overviews: Generate regular reports on the overall strategic outlook, integrating political, economic, and military developments, including assessments of international support and potential shifts in diplomatic positions.
• Targeted Intelligence Briefs: Provide focused intelligence briefs for specific units and commanders on emerging threats (e.g., new Russian drone tactics, claimed advances in their sector) and their implications. This includes specific alerts regarding anticipated "massive raids" and recommended countermeasures.

Feedback Loop:

• Air Defense Feedback: Establish a robust feedback loop with Ukrainian air defense commanders to evaluate the effectiveness of counter-drone measures and adapt tactics based on real-time interceptions of widespread, multi-directional attacks, especially in preparation for potentially larger future attacks.
• Frontline Commander Input: Regularly solicit feedback from ground commanders on Russian tactics, equipment effectiveness, and personnel status to refine intelligence assessments and inform operational planning.
• Diplomatic Liaison: Maintain continuous communication with diplomatic liaisons to relay battlefield realities and receive updates on international political developments, ensuring that military operations align with strategic diplomatic objectives.
• Civilian Authority Coordination: Engage with civilian authorities in targeted regions to understand the impact of attacks and inform humanitarian response efforts. Coordinate with local authorities in areas affected by drone debris and fires, such as in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast.

Updated Military Situation Overview

1. Command and Control: * General Andrey Mordvichev, known for advocating "meat assaults," has officially become the commander of the Russian Ground Forces. This appointment signals a likely continuation of high-attrition, direct assault tactics. * New Tactical Aviation Threat: Russian tactical aviation is active in northeastern and southeastern directions, posing a threat of guided aerial weapons for frontline areas.

2. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics: * Donetsk Oblast: * Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat with 54 engagements. Russian sources claim significant advances, including the full liberation of Zorya, Alexandropol, Novoolenovka, and Nova Poltavka, with active promotion towards Yablunivka and Popiv Yar. Claims include efforts to cut off the Kostyantynivka-Nova Poltavka highway, described as the main supply artery. Russian Vostok Group forces reportedly entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar are also claimed. * Novopavlivka Direction: 19 attacks repelled. * Lyman Direction: Situation has reportedly worsened, with Russian forces attempting to advance near Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novoserhiyivka, Olhivka, Novyi Myr, and in Serebryanskyi forest. * Artillery and FPV Drone Activity: Heavy Russian artillery and FPV drone activity, claiming destruction of Ukrainian command posts, strongpoints, ammunition depots, armored vehicles, BM-21 Grads, UAV control points, and "Baba Yaga" drones. KABs are continuously launched. * Sumy Oblast: * Russian forces claimed advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Russian forces claim to have "pushed back" Ukrainian groups from Tetkino and Ryzhevka. * Ukrainian intelligence indicates Sumy is a priority direction for Russia to seize territory before negotiations. A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy." * Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast due to increased shelling. * Kharkiv Oblast: * Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Russian forces have taken control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advanced 400m near Fiholivka. * Zaporizhzhia Oblast: * Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. A large explosion was captured on video in Stepnohirsk from a Russian strike. * Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: * Russian sources claim partial advances into Novonikolaevka. Claims of Russian units breaching Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. * Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): A Russian official stated that the Russian Armed Forces could fully liberate LPR within a couple of weeks, noting only a few villages remain.

3. Aerial and Naval Activity: * Drone Activity: * Ukrainian Attacks: Russian MoD claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions (Moscow region: 35, Kursk: 42, Belgorod: 14, Oryol: 14, Tula: 10, Kaluga: 9, Voronezh: 7, Lipetsk: 3, Smolensk: 3, Bryansk: 1). Rybar claims over 200 Ukrainian drones were shot down across a broader range of Russian regions. UPDATED: UAVs were suppressed over Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, with debris causing a fire in an industrial zone and requiring evacuation. Mobile internet has been temporarily restricted in Yelets. Further, RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Tula and Yelets (with a battery factory attacked and on fire), and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed three more drones shot down en route to Moscow. A Russian military blogger, НгП раZVедка, warns that the current drone attack is merely a "rehearsal" for an even more massive future attack aimed at overwhelming Russian air defenses. * Russian Attacks: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launching 128 "Shahed" and imitator drones overnight on May 22 from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense reportedly neutralized 112 enemy UAVs (74 shot down kinetically, 38 suppressed by EW) across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine. Affected regions include Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. UPDATED: New groups of Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast are heading towards Kharkiv Oblast. Two groups are reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and in southern Poltava Oblast, both heading directly towards Kremenchuk. Another group is moving from southern Mykolaiv Oblast northwest. Further updates indicate 11 Shaheds on the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts (northwest course), 10 near Balakliya (towards Zlatopil), a group in central Kharkiv Oblast (southwest course), UAVs in western Sumy Oblast (towards Poltava Oblast), several groups on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts (north course), and a group in northern Odesa Oblast (northwest course). The widespread air raid map confirms significant areas of Ukraine under alert, from Sumy/Chernihiv south through Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kherson, including Crimea. * FPV Drone Combat: Both sides extensively use FPV drones for precision strikes against personnel, vehicles, and infrastructure. * Missile Activity: * Russian: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launch from Taganrog, Russia, in the overnight attack on May 22. Russian MoD claims an Iskander-M successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system near Ordzhonikidze in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. * Ukrainian: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launching an Iskander-M ballistic missile (presumably intercepting the Russian one) from Taganrog, Russia (likely a typo, should be targeting Russian missile, not launching from Russian territory). * Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. * Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait continues. * North Korean Naval Accident: A new North Korean destroyer reportedly did not receive serious damage in a recent accident.

4. Casualties and Losses: * Ukrainian Estimated Russian Losses (May 20, 2025): The General Staff of Ukraine reported estimated Russian losses as of May 20, 2025, including a daily increase of 1030 personnel (total estimated ~975,800), +1 tank, +5 troop-carrying AFVs, +58 artillery systems, +1 MLRS, +118 operational-tactical level UAVs, and +105 vehicles & fuel tanks. * Ukrainian Losses: Russian MoD claims a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system was neutralized. A Ukrainian T-64BV tank was destroyed by a Russian FPV drone in Sumy Oblast. * Civilian Casualties: * Ukraine: Kharkiv Oblast suffered 1 fatality and 6 injuries from missile and drone strikes. Kyiv Oblast had 1 fatality and 3 injuries. Two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now 5 injured total). Russian artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district in Kherson injured another 5 people. A 28-year-old man was killed by a Russian UAV in Chernihiv Oblast. A 59-year-old man was severely wounded by Russian artillery in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. * Russia: Civilian injuries and damage in Tula and Kursk Oblasts from Ukrainian UAVs. Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, injured by an FPV drone. A civilian was killed and another injured in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast, from a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. UPDATED: Debris from suppressed UAVs caused a fire in an industrial zone in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, leading to evacuations. * POW Executions: CNN published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025).

5. Humanitarian Situation: * Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast due to increased shelling. * Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration is actively engaged in governance, education, and industrial production for military support, showcasing resilience and continued function. They are also utilizing VR for medical training. * Kharkiv Oblast Administration launched a mobile application "Social Services of Kharkiv Oblast" to provide accessible social services, including veterans' services and psychological assistance.

6. International and Political Developments: * US Sanctions: US Senate plans to strengthen sanctions against Russia, with over 80 senators supporting the bill. * EU Sanctions: EU approved its 17th package of sanctions, targeting Russia's "shadow fleet," companies involved in sanctions evasion, military-industrial complex entities, and individuals/journalists disseminating Russian influence. Calls are intensifying to freeze funding for Hungary due to its pro-Russian stance. * Cybersecurity: UK accuses Russian GRU unit APT 28 (Fancy Bear) of hacking 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries (Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. * Prisoner Exchange: Discussions for the largest prisoner exchange to date, in a "1000 for 1000" format, could begin between May 23 and 25. * Moldova Neutrality: Moldova and Germany signed an agreement for a Bundeswehr consultative group, aiming to modernize Moldovan defense and deepen military cooperation. Transnistria views this as a plan for hypothetical war with Russia. * North Korea: Kim Jong Un reportedly infuriated by a naval accident involving a new destroyer. Ukraine's Parliament proposes recognizing DPRK as an aggressor state. * Finland: Finland is "preparing for the worst" and expects Russia to increase troops along their shared border after the war in Ukraine, due to Moscow reinforcing military bases nearby. * Iran-Russia Partnership: Iran approved a strategic partnership treaty with Russia, deepening military, economic, and technological cooperation. * Zaluzhnyi's Assessment: Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's Ambassador to Britain, stated that Ukraine cannot expect a "miracle" or "white swan" to restore its 1991 or 2022 borders.

7. Internal Russian Issues: * Security: FSB detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for allegedly preparing to set fire to a Ministry of Defense building under Ukrainian guidance. A former "Wagner" mercenary was arrested in Ufa for murder and dismemberment. Rosfinmonitoring is requesting access to data from the "Mir" payment system for "combating money laundering and terrorist financing." * Social/Political: General Andrey Mordvichev, known for "meat assaults," became commander of Ground Forces. The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a municipal head due to her daughter's "unacceptable" statements regarding the "Special Military Operation." Public outcry over a flooded cemetery in Samara, containing WWII veterans' graves. * Infrastructure: Rosaviatsiya introduced restrictions on Samara airport's operations. Moscow airports experienced temporary restrictions due to drone threats. UPDATED: Mobile internet has been temporarily restricted in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, to improve anti-UAV defense. * Propaganda: Russian military bloggers continue to solicit donations for essential equipment. Russian channels released propaganda videos of captured Ukrainian POWs. Russian military bloggers discuss "big egos" in peace negotiations and share historical commentary. The FSB is preventing attacks on police involving minors. * Military Equipment Development: UPDATED: State tests have begun for the BT-3F, an amphibious armored personnel carrier. However, critical assessments by Russian military bloggers highlight significant design flaws and outdated concepts for modern combat (low anti-mine protection, inconvenient troop dismount, weak armor), suggesting it is ill-suited for current front-line operations.

8. Ukrainian Force Composition and Training: * Marine Brigades: Ukrainian 36th Separate Marine Brigade (named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky) is conducting rigorous training, including waterborne maneuvers, physical obstacle courses, and low crawls through mud/reeds, showcasing readiness for diverse terrain. * Drone Acquisition: Ukrainian military bloggers continue to fundraise for FPV drones, indicating a significant and ongoing demand for these systems. * Robotic Evacuation: Ukrainian National Guard Brigade "Khartia" successfully used a ground robotic platform for medical evacuation of a wounded soldier.

9. Cybersecurity and Information Warfare: * UK alleges GRU unit APT 28 hacked 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. * The FSB is preventing attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye. * Ukrainian SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih identified and neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks against military vehicles.