Military Intelligence AI: Operational Instructions

I. Major Updates

Ukrainian Strategic Assessment: No Miraculous Border Return: Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's Ambassador to Britain, stated that Ukraine cannot expect a "miracle" or "white swan" to restore its 1991 or 2022 borders. He emphasized that as long as the enemy possesses resources to strike Ukrainian territory and conduct offensive actions, the war will continue. Zaluzhnyi stressed that Russia's ability to wage war is entirely dependent on its available resources. This provides a sobering, professional assessment of the long-term nature of the conflict and the imperative for sustained resource generation and realistic objectives.
Widespread Russian Drone Activity and Threat to Kremenchuk: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed-type UAVs are active across Ukraine. A new group is heading from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast. Crucially, two groups of Shaheds are on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and in southern Poltava Oblast, both heading directly towards Kremenchuk. Another group is moving from southern Mykolaiv Oblast northwest. This indicates a coordinated, widespread drone attack likely aimed at overwhelming air defenses and targeting critical infrastructure (like the Kremenchuk oil refinery, a frequent target) and major cities. Air raid alerts have been issued for these regions, with specific mention of "loudness" in Kremenchuk.
Intensified Ukrainian Deep Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims a massive interception of 105 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across various Russian regions from 00:00 to 05:30 MSK. This includes a significant concentration of 35 UAVs over the Moscow region, as well as 14 over Oryol, 12 over Kursk, 11 over Belgorod, 10 over Tula, 9 over Kaluga, 7 over Voronezh, 3 over Lipetsk, 3 over Smolensk, and 1 over Bryansk. This represents a widespread, sustained Ukrainian offensive aimed at probing Russian air defenses and imposing costs deep within Russian territory.
Russian Ground Advances and Persistent Pressure: Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This represents a significant territorial claim. Positional battles continue on the Zaporizhzhia front around Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, Shcherbakov, and Kamenskoye. Russian forces report advances north of Chasov Yar, near the Seversky Donets – Donbass Canal, with fighting continuing within the city. They are also accumulating forces for further offensives. On the Sumy direction, Russia claims repelling another Ukrainian border breakthrough attempt near Noviy Put, with Ukraine losing armored vehicles and personnel, and claims further advances in Loknya.
High Attrition Rates: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an estimated 870 Russian personnel killed/wounded/captured over the past day, along with 32 artillery systems, 105 UAVs, 4 tanks, 5 AFVs, and 99 vehicles/fuel tanks destroyed. These figures underscore the continued high intensity of attrition warfare on both sides.
Trump's Assessment of Putin's War Intent: The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump privately told European leaders that Russian President Putin is not ready to end the war, as he believes he is winning. This signals a hardened Russian stance and reinforces the expectation of prolonged conflict, potentially undermining Western unity on sanctions and aid.
Russian Military Appointments and Economic Strain: Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, a combat-experienced officer, has been appointed as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces, signaling a shift towards leveraging direct combat experience in high command. Internally, reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items (onions and cabbage) in Russia over the past year, suggesting growing economic pressures.
Ongoing Cyber Warfare: Russian state services, including the Federal Tax Service, experienced large-scale outages attributed to DDoS attacks from abroad, highlighting continued cyber warfare activities targeting critical infrastructure.

II. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast:
- Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in settlements such as Bagatyr, Odrane, and Vilne Pole, highlighting sustained enemy pressure. Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, allegedly reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Chasov Yar Direction: Russian forces report advances north of Chasov Yar, near the Seversky Donets – Donbass Canal, with fighting continuing within the city. Russia is reportedly accumulating forces for further offensives, while Ukraine is bringing up reserves, utilizing drone superiority and natural concealment.
- Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the areas of Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk, demonstrating intense pressure on this front.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Positional battles continue around Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, Shcherbakov, and Kamenskoye, with no significant changes to the Line of Combat Contact (LBS). Ukrainian forces repelled four Russian attacks in Shcherbaky, Stepove, and towards Pavlivka on the Orikhiv direction. Russian forces attempted three unsuccessful advances towards Ukrainian positions near Vysoke (Huliaipilskyi direction). Russian units attempted one advance on the Dnipro River Direction but were unsuccessful.
Sumy Oblast: Russia claims repelling another Ukrainian border breakthrough attempt near Noviy Put, with Ukraine losing several armored vehicles and personnel. Russian forces also claim further advances in Loknya, Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka, indicating persistent Russian pressure but successful Ukrainian defense.
Dnipro River Direction: Russian units attempted one advance but were unsuccessful.

III. Aerial & Naval Activity

Widespread Russian Drone Attacks (Ukraine):
- New groups of Russian Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast are heading towards Kharkiv Oblast.
- Two groups of Shaheds are reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and in southern Poltava Oblast, both heading directly towards Kremenchuk, indicating a high-priority target.
- Another group of Shaheds is moving from southern Mykolaiv Oblast northwest.
- Air raid alerts have been issued for these regions, with specific mention of "loudness" in Kremenchuk.
- Ukrainian Air Force is actively monitoring these movements, providing real-time updates.
Massive Ukrainian Drone Attacks (Russia):
- The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight (00:00-05:30 MSK) across Russian regions.
- This includes 35 UAVs over the Moscow region, 14 over Oryol, 12 over Kursk, 11 over Belgorod, 10 over Tula, 9 over Kaluga, 7 over Voronezh, 3 over Lipetsk, 3 over Smolensk, and 1 over Bryansk.
Russian Lancet Drone Strikes: A video shows precision Lancet drone strikes targeting a Ukrainian tank on a closed firing position in Mirnoye, DPR.
Russian FPV Drone Operations: A video from the "Far Eastern Winds" unit showcases FPV drone operations on the Shakhtyorsk direction, destroying a pickup truck, an ammunition depot, a temporary deployment point, a communications antenna, an artillery piece, and an armored vehicle. This highlights versatile targeting and effective battle damage assessment by Russian forces.
Naval Update: Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait continues.

IV. Humanitarian & Social Issues

Ukrainian Recruitment: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces is actively recruiting sappers, highlighting the ongoing need for specialized personnel to clear mines and unexploded ordnance.
Russian Economic Strain: Reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items (onions: 87.2%, cabbage: 56.8%) in Russia over the past year, citing reduced harvests and lower quality produce. This suggests internal economic pressures and potential food security concerns.
Israeli Embassy Incident: Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near the Jewish Museum in Washington. A suspect has been detained, and former US President Trump described the incident as based on antisemitism.

V. Strategic Outlook

The strategic landscape is dominated by the relentless aerial attrition campaign waged by both sides. Ukraine's ability to conduct large-scale drone attacks deep into Russian territory (e.g., 105 UAVs claimed shot down overnight, with a significant concentration over Moscow) demonstrates a persistent capability to impose costs and challenge Russian air defenses. Simultaneously, Russia continues its multi-directional drone attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure like Kremenchuk, aiming to degrade Ukraine's economic and military-industrial potential.

On the ground, Russia maintains persistent offensive pressure across multiple axes, with new claims of advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopavlivka direction, and continued fighting in Chasov Yar and border incursions in Sumy. This indicates a sustained effort to expand territorial control. The high attrition rates reported by both Ukrainian and Russian general staffs underscore the brutal and costly nature of the conflict, demanding continuous replenishment of personnel and materiel.

Diplomatically, the reported private assessment by Donald Trump that Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning is a critical signal. This potentially undermines Western unity on sanctions and aid, reinforcing Russia's resolve for prolonged conflict and complicating future negotiation efforts. The G7's joint communique, however, provides a counter-signal by reiterating unwavering support for Ukraine, linking frozen Russian assets to reparations, and excluding Russian allies from profiting from Ukraine's reconstruction.

Russia's internal strategic focus is evident in the appointment of a combat-experienced Commander-in-Chief for its Land Forces, signaling a prioritization of battlefield effectiveness. However, internal economic pressures (rising food prices) and ongoing cyber warfare against Russian state services indicate domestic vulnerabilities. Valerii Zaluzhnyi's professional assessment of the war's long-term nature, emphasizing that Ukraine cannot rely on "miracles" for territorial restoration, provides a realistic foundation for Ukrainian strategic planning, highlighting the need for sustained effort and resource generation. The ongoing need for specialized personnel like sappers in Ukraine further underscores the long-term and complex challenges.

VI. Risk Assessment

Escalation Risk: High. The persistent large-scale drone attacks by both sides, particularly deep strikes into each other's territory, carry a significant risk of further escalation and retaliatory actions. Russia's continued ground advances, including claims of reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border, also increase this risk.
Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: High. Continued widespread drone attacks and ground offensives will result in further civilian casualties and damage to critical infrastructure, particularly power and industrial facilities in targeted areas like Kremenchuk and Kharkiv.
Logistical Strain: High. The high attrition rates for equipment and personnel reported by both sides will place immense strain on logistical chains for resupply, repair, and medical evacuation.
Information Warfare Impact: Extreme. Trump's reported private assessment of Putin's mindset could be exploited by Russia to undermine Western resolve and unity. The G7's counter-narrative and sanctions efforts are crucial but face headwinds. Russia's internal information operations (e.g., showcasing military feats) aim to bolster morale amidst economic pressures.
Internal Russian Stability: Moderate to High. Rising food prices, coupled with ongoing cyberattacks on state services, could potentially increase public discontent if not managed effectively by the regime.
Ukrainian Manpower and Specialization: High. The ongoing recruitment for specialized roles like sappers indicates critical personnel needs for specific battlefield functions, which must be met to sustain operations.
Geopolitical Alignment: Increased uncertainty regarding US foreign policy under a potential Trump administration could significantly impact future military aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Cybersecurity Threats: High. The reported large-scale DDoS attacks on Russian state services indicate active and potentially escalating cyber warfare, posing a risk to both sides' critical infrastructure.

VII. Resource Allocation Considerations

Air Defense Augmentation: Immediate and continuous prioritization of air defense systems and munitions, especially to protect critical industrial centers (Kremenchuk) and major urban areas (Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk). Mobile air defense units are crucial for countering widespread drone attacks.
Drone Capabilities: Continued investment in the production, deployment, and operational training for both offensive (FPV) and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine. Simultaneously, resources must be allocated to counter Russian FPV drone tactics and new drone models like the "Juliet."
Counter-Artillery and EW Systems: Provision of effective counter-battery radar and electronic warfare systems to counter Russian artillery and disrupt their drone operations.
Personnel Recruitment and Training: Dedicated resources for recruitment and specialized training, particularly for sappers, to address critical skill gaps.
Economic Resilience Support: International financial and economic support for Ukraine's long-term stability and resilience, as outlined in the G7 communique, is crucial.
Cyber Defense: Continued and enhanced investment in cybersecurity infrastructure and expert personnel to defend against sophisticated state-backed cyber threats.

VIII. Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

Real-time Drone Tracking: Enhance real-time data feeds and processing for tracking all incoming and outgoing drone activity. Prioritize data from Mykolaiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, specifically focusing on trajectories towards Kremenchuk and other industrial/urban targets.
Ground Movement Verification: Utilize satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence to independently verify Russian claims of advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and other contested territories.
Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Rigorously collect BDA for both Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia and Russian strikes in Ukraine, cross-referencing with local reports and official claims (e.g., 105 UAVs shot down over Russia).
Economic Indicators: Systematically collect data on Russian internal economic indicators, particularly consumer prices for essential goods, to assess domestic stability and potential impacts on war effort.
Cyber Threat Intelligence: Integrate real-time intelligence on cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia to anticipate and mitigate threats.
Foreign Leader Statements: Closely monitor and analyze statements from key international figures (e.g., Trump, G7 leaders) and their reported private assessments for shifts in diplomatic postures that may affect military aid or negotiation prospects.

Analysis and Modeling:

Drone Attack Pattern Analysis: Develop more sophisticated models to predict Russian drone swarm attack patterns, target selection (especially for Kremenchuk and other industrial sites), and their methods of overwhelming air defenses.
Ground Offensive Projection: Update predictive models for Russian ground offensives, incorporating current advances (e.g., Novopavlivka direction) and force accumulation patterns (e.g., Chasov Yar).
Attrition Impact Assessment: Continuously analyze reported personnel and equipment losses for both sides to assess their impact on combat effectiveness and sustainability.
Force Composition Analysis: Analyze Russian military appointments and internal economic indicators to project potential shifts in strategic priorities and resource allocation.
Cybersecurity Impact Assessment: Model the potential impact of ongoing cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and military command and control systems for both sides.

Reporting and Visualization:

Dynamic Threat Maps: Continuously update dynamic maps displaying real-time drone trajectories, air raid alerts, and areas of significant ground combat activity, with explicit warnings for high-risk targets like Kremenchuk.
Attrition Dashboards: Create clear and concise dashboards visualizing daily and cumulative personnel and equipment losses for both sides.
Strategic Overviews: Generate regular reports on the overall strategic outlook, integrating political, economic, and military developments, including assessments of international support and potential shifts in diplomatic positions.
Targeted Intelligence Briefs: Provide focused intelligence briefs for specific units and commanders on emerging threats (e.g., new Russian drone tactics, claimed advances in their sector) and their implications.

Feedback Loop:

Air Defense Feedback: Establish a robust feedback loop with Ukrainian air defense commanders to evaluate the effectiveness of counter-drone measures and adapt tactics based on real-time interceptions.
Frontline Commander Input: Regularly solicit feedback from ground commanders on Russian tactics, equipment effectiveness, and personnel status to refine intelligence assessments and inform operational planning.
Diplomatic Liaison: Maintain continuous communication with diplomatic liaisons to relay battlefield realities and receive updates on international political developments, ensuring that military operations align with strategic diplomatic objectives.
Civilian Authority Coordination: Engage with civilian authorities in targeted regions to understand the impact of attacks and inform humanitarian response efforts.

Situation Report