Military Intelligence Assessment: Ukraine Operations - May 22, 2025 (Evening Update)

I. Major Operational Updates

A. Strategic Intent & Border Security

• Russian "Buffer Zone" Declaration: Russian President Putin formally declared a decision to create a "buffer security zone" along the Russia-Ukraine border, specifically targeting Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts. This is being implemented by Russian Armed Forces through "actively suppressing enemy firing points," signaling potential further territorial expansion under the guise of defensive measures. Russian military bloggers interpret this as a political decision to advance into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned this, stating it proves Putin is the sole cause of the war.
• Justification Narrative: Putin frames Ukrainian cross-border attacks as "terrorist methods" targeting non-military objectives, necessitating the buffer zone for Russian civilian protection and border security.
• Long-Term Commitment to Border Regions: Russia plans a comprehensive program for restoration of affected Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, indicating a long-term commitment to these areas and their stability.

B. Diplomatic Developments

• Prisoner Exchange Progress: Both Russia and Ukraine have submitted lists for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange. Ukraine is currently verifying the Russian list and has completed its own. Russia stated the exchange would be "labour-intensive" and take several days, and Ukraine's Yermak emphasizes Russia should accelerate the process. This indicates active, high-level humanitarian diplomacy. However, a Russian State Duma committee head claimed Kyiv does not have enough Russian POWs for such an exchange, suggesting Ukraine is looking for non-military prisoners to make up numbers, which is likely an information operation.
• Ukraine-Slovenia Summit: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has spoken with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob, inviting Slovenia to the "Ukraine – South-East Europe Summit," which Slovenia has confirmed attendance for. This signifies Ukraine's ongoing efforts to strengthen international alliances and regional cooperation. Zelenskyy has also invited Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Moldova to this summit.
• Trump's Stance on Russia Sanctions: Reports indicate Donald Trump has opposed immediate "hellish" sanctions against Russia and has conveyed to European leaders that Putin desires to end the war, seemingly without full awareness of ongoing ceasefire discussions. He also stated he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while also saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. He will assess Ukraine's efforts for conflict resolution within 2-4 weeks and stated that if there is no significant progress, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." TASS, citing The Times, reported the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Comments: Rubio stated the US is working with NATO partners to find additional Patriot systems for Ukraine and that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily, requiring negotiations. He noted the conflict diverts resources from "more serious threats" in Asia.
• Potential EU/US Involvement in Negotiations: A European Commission spokesperson reportedly stated that future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations could include the EU and US, allegedly agreed upon after a Trump-European leaders call. Peskov confirmed contacts between Russia and Ukraine have been "recreated and are continuing," and that the topic of a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting was discussed, but specific details are not yet decided. Peskov also stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services."
• Vatican Negotiation Initiative: The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June.
• Ukraine's Financial Proposal to EU: Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko proposed that EU partners directly allocate a portion of their GDP to fund the Ukrainian Armed Forces, integrating the Ukrainian army into Europe's defense system.
• Ukrainian Call for Stronger EU Sanctions: Ukraine will urge the EU next week to consider new measures to isolate Moscow, including asset freezes and secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers, citing US reluctance to increase sanctions.
• Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Response to Putin's Buffer Zone: Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that Putin's declaration of a "buffer zone" proves he is the root cause of the war and the sole reason for its continuation, especially as Ukraine and its partners advocate for a full, lasting ceasefire.
• Zelenskyy on Military Basis for Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy held a meeting with military officials to discuss the "military foundation for diplomacy" and the next technical meeting with Russians. He emphasized Ukraine's interest in not prolonging the war but being ready for any situation, stating that the world recognizes Russia's responsibility for the war's continuation. Ukraine is ready for rapid steps towards a real ceasefire and a new security architecture.
• Zaluzhnyi's Realistic Assessment: Former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi (now Ambassador to the UK) stated that there would be "no miracles" regarding the return to 1991 borders, as the enemy still possesses resources to continue the war and conduct offensive actions. This implies a need for a long-term strategy and continued resource mobilization.

C. Ground Operations & Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast - Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces claim capturing a stronghold northwest of Ozaryanivka and systematically advancing towards Kurdiumivka and from Druzhba towards Dyliyivka. Russian military bloggers claim 2/3 of Otradne is under their control and advances east of Fedorivka. Ukrainian sources report fierce battles and systematic Russian advances towards Kurdiumivka and Dyliyivka. Russian forces claim successful advance from Green Field towards Ihnatovka by 3 km, and occupied a 3.4 km wide area north and east of Romanovka. Russian artillery claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold near Otradne. Russian forces claim to have almost cut off the Ukrainian grouping near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka with advances to Nova Poltavka. Russian military reports an FPV drone strike compilation from May 21 near Pokrovsk, destroying NATO armored vehicles, fire points, mortars, infantry, positions, and transport. Russian forces are engaged in continued battles northwest of Dyleyevka, attempting to secure forest belts and countering Ukrainian drone control points. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point near Dyleyevka using artillery. Russian sources claim that a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attempted to penetrate Krymske, but their position was destroyed by Russian drone operators. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is transitioning into a "grey zone." Russian forces are continuing to storm a wide front on the Konstantinovka direction towards Popov Yar. Russian units of the "Vostok" group are liberating Otradnoye, engaging Ukrainian counterattacks with infantry and armored vehicles. Russian assault groups are consolidating positions in two northern and southern blocks in Zelenoye Polye and adjacent forest belts (1/3 of the settlement). Cleaning up the northern part of Novopol is complete, with fighting ongoing between the two settlements. A man in Horlivka was injured by an explosive dropped from a Ukrainian drone onto a car. Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Russian military expert, Marochko, stated that Russian forces had recaptured several Ukrainian positions near Verkhnokamyanske in the DPR over the past few days. Ukrainian General Staff reported 144 combat engagements over the past day, with 54 of these on the Pokrovsk direction, including locations like Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lisivka, Dachenke, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troitske, Promin, Kotliarivka, Andriyivka, and in directions of Popiv Yar and Novomykhailivka. Ukraine also repelled 19 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction (near Novopol, Bogatyr, Novosilka, Zelene Pole), 16 attacks on the Toretsk direction (Dyliivka, Druzhba, Toretsk), and reported fierce battles on the Lyman, Siversk, and Kramatorsk directions.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian "Vostok" group claims continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses on the Shakhtyorsk (over 2 km deep, 1.5 km along front) and Vremevsky (occupying buildings in eastern Zelenoye Pole, clearing treeline, advancing 500m) directions. Ukrainian counterattacks were reportedly repelled. A Leopard tank and two MaxxPro vehicles were reportedly destroyed by Lancet drones. Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications in this sector. Russian "Vostok" group claims entering eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and advancing east of Fedorivka. Russian "Vostok" group claims destroying Ukrainian construction equipment near Otradne, noting Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian sources claim that units of the 90th Guards Tank Division have breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with Russian assault units claiming a quarter of Novonikolaevka secured. Ukrainian authorities have denied this claim, stating it is a deliberate fake for intimidation. Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, and Russian UAV operators are observing and striking Ukrainian engineering units. Over 20 Russian attacks reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with Nikopol region suffering drone and heavy artillery attacks, damaging infrastructure and homes. Novopavlivka community in Synelnykivskyi district was hit by KABs. Russian drone attacks damaged an industrial enterprise in Pavlohrad, causing several fires. In Nikopol and Marganetska community, artillery and FPV drones damaged 4 private houses and power lines. A kamikaze drone hit a car in Mezhevska community.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces claim to have liberated the border village of Maryino and report ongoing battles for Belovody, claiming significant Ukrainian losses in these areas. Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and near Yunakovka. Russian marine infantry units from the 177th Separate Guards Regiment are reportedly "burning out" forest belts with Ukrainian forces near Myropillya. Russian forces used "Geran" drones to strike targets in Sumy and Shostka. An Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, reportedly killed 6 and wounded over 10 servicemen, leading to calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures. Russia claims repelling another Ukrainian border breakthrough attempt near Noviy Put, with Ukraine losing several armored vehicles and personnel.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces claim advances towards the logistical point of Pokalyanoye and seized forest areas north of Volchansk Khutors, forcing the Ukrainian "Forpost" border detachment to retreat. Significant losses are claimed for the Ukrainian 113th Territorial Defense Brigade. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment and multiple artillery pieces. Ukrainian aeroreconnaissance units are crowdfunding for vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces claim a Starlink satellite communication station was destroyed in Kharkiv region. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is constructing underground schools. Oleg Synegubov reports transfer of 10 minibuses to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources are amplifying narratives about Ukrainian forces "screaming" and suffering heavy losses near Volchanskie Khutora and Tikhoe (Kharkiv Oblast), attributing this to a lack of "adequate command" and critical deficiencies in manpower, ammunition, and communication. A missile strike in Kholodnohirsky district damaged 8 private houses, injuring 2 people (acute stress reaction). Russian forces attempted counterattacks near Zagryzovo, losing about 40 personnel and a tank. Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, provided a detailed report on Russian strikes on Kharkiv city and 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, involving 1 missile, 10 KABs, 5 Shahed UAVs, 2 Geran-2 UAVs, and 2 Molniya UAVs. These strikes caused 1 fatality (a man in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi) and 6 injuries (women aged 60, 63, 68 in Kharkiv; a 39-year-old man in Hrushivka; women aged 66, 70 in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi; and women aged 73, 44 in Kupiansk). Extensive damage was reported to 10 private houses, a car, gas and electricity networks in Kharkiv; an administrative building and a car in Chuhuiv district; and 44 houses, an administrative building, a lyceum building, and a factory in Kupiansk district. Russian MoD claims FPV drones of the Zapad Group of Forces eliminated a French-made VAB armored personnel carrier in Kharkiv region.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that operations in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts are an "active and effective defense," claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties in the Kursk area since August. Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, using missiles and FPV drones. A Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces attempted to break through near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, suffering losses from mines and drones. WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian missile strike on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, with claimed civilian casualties (12 injured, including 2 children aged 13 and 16, with traumatic brain injuries and shrapnel wounds). The Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, reported his car was hit by a Ukrainian drone. Russian air defense claims large numbers of Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (135 total between 04:00-18:00 MSK) over Kursk and surrounding regions. Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put with destruction of BMPs and Stryker APCs. Two elderly men were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts of Kursk Oblast. The head of Belovsky district, Nikolai Volobuyev, was attacked by a Ukrainian drone for the fourth time, sustaining thigh and hand injuries. Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian army assaults in Kursk region yesterday. Russian MoD reports 53 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kursk Oblast. TASS reports 8 people wounded under Avdiivka from HIMARS strike. TASS cites Russian operative services about 8 people wounded under Avdiivka by HIMARS strike.
• Novopavlivka Direction (Donetsk): Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, and other settlements. Russian "Vostok" group claims entering eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and advancing east of Fedorivka. The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine reported repelling 19 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction (near Novopol, Bogatyr, Novosilka, Zelene Pole).
• Siversk Direction: Russian sources claim advances of 1.5 km into the residential area of Verkhnokamyanske and occupation of new positions in the western part.
• Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian media "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Kherson, indicating continued military activity in the city. Russian artillery fire in Berislav, Kherson Oblast, killed two civilians. Two people were injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson Military Administration confirming the attack and noting route changes due to high drone activity. Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson hit a multi-story building and injured two civilians. The number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5, leading to a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Russian drone attacks on the local hospital in Kakhovka injured one man. Russian forces shelled Nova Kakhovka, Vasylivka, Oleshky, Kardashynka, Knyaz-Hryhorivka, Lyubimivka, Pishchanivka, Rybalche, and Solontsi. Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault on the Prydniprovskyi direction (near Antonivskyi bridges). Video footage from occupied Kakhovka shows mine warning signs and barbed wire, indicating heavy fortification and militarization of the area, with the Kakhovka Reservoir bed now dried up.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast communities (excluding the city), due to KABs. Russian forces used FABs with UMPK (glide bomb kits) to strike multi-story buildings in Stepnohorsk, claiming they were occupied by Ukrainian forces. An air raid alert was declared specifically for the city of Zaporizhzhia, indicating an immediate threat beyond the previous oblast-wide alert. Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, targeting residential areas. A video from the Kalinouski Regiment (Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine) showcases FPV drone strikes on Russian-occupied buildings, a 120-mm mortar, personnel, antennas, and communication elements on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian defenders repelled 4 attacks on the Orikhiv direction (near Shcherbaky, Stepove), and 3 unsuccessful assaults on the Huliaipole direction (near Chervone). Over the past day, 495 strikes by Russian forces on 13 frontline communities, including 6 air strikes (KABs), 303 FPV drone attacks, 5 MLRS attacks, and 181 artillery strikes, resulting in 3 injured civilians and damage to 15 residential properties and a farming enterprise. Russian paratroopers from the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division on the Zaporozhye direction are appealing for public donations to acquire eight Starlink satellite communication terminals. "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that Russian forces continue active offensive actions, taking another Ukrainian stronghold.
• Chasov Yar Direction: Russian forces report advances north of Chasov Yar, specifically near the Seversky Donets – Donbass Canal, with fighting continuing within the city. They are accumulating forces for further offensives, while Ukrainian forces are bringing up reserves, utilizing drone superiority and natural concealment. Russian military expert Vitaly Kiselev claimed that Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen near Chasov Yar.
• Huliaipilskyi Direction: Russian forces attempted three unsuccessful advances towards Ukrainian positions near Vysoke. The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine reported 3 unsuccessful Russian assault attempts in the area of Chervone.
• Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks in Shcherbaky, Stepove, and towards Pavlivka. The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine reported successfully repelling 4 Russian attacks in the areas of Shcherbaky and Stepove.
• Dnipro River Direction: Russian units attempted one advance but were unsuccessful. The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine reported 1 unsuccessful Russian assault attempt in the area of Antonivskyi bridges, while enemy regroups and conducts reconnaissance to continue attempts to seize the Dnipro island zone.
• Bodies of Ukrainian Soldiers: Russian forces claim to have discovered numerous bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, some burned and unidentifiable except by DNA, in forested areas near Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, stating they were abandoned by their commanders. This is framed as evidence of poor Ukrainian evacuation practices and high casualties. Similar claims of unrecovered bodies were made in areas near Chasov Yar.

D. Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (Donetsk): Ukrainian "Charlie" company (14th UAV regiment) and "Black Forest" (15th artillery reconnaissance brigade) claim to have detected and destroyed a Russian command vehicle and three air defense systems (Tor, Buk-M3, and S-300) in Donetsk Oblast. This showcases effective Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD operations.
• Russian Aerial Reconnaissance (Kharkiv): A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active in northern Kharkiv Oblast, potentially serving as a spotter for enemy fire.
• Russian KAB Launches (Widespread): Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian forces are reported on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, indicating continued aerial support for ground operations. The head of the Kharkiv ODA, Oleh Syniehubov, reported Russian strikes on Kharkiv city and 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, involving 1 missile, 10 KABs, 5 Shahed UAVs, 2 Geran-2 UAVs, and 2 Molniya UAVs. Russian Colonelcassad reports successful Russian FAB strikes on Ukrainian strongholds in Southern Donetsk direction, with visual control from "Vostok" group reconnaissance. Russian "Dva Mayora" reports FAB-3000 strikes in Siversk direction (Zvanovka).
• Intensified Russian Drone Attacks on Russia: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin initially reported 12 downed UAVs, updated to 28 repelled drones approaching Moscow. Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK over various regions, including 9 over the Moscow region. A new report from the Russian MoD states 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions (including 35 over Moscow region, 42 over Kursk, 14 over Belgorod, 8 over Oryol, 2 over Kaluga, and one each over Ryazan and Tula). This indicates a substantial increase in claimed interceptions, highlighting persistent Ukrainian deep drone attacks and Russian air defense efforts. Governor of Tula confirmed two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. Russian air defense forces destroyed three UAVs in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. The Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, reported his car was hit by a Ukrainian drone, featured in Russian state media as an example of Ukrainian "terrorist methods." Four more UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Domodedovo Airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast reported a civilian wounded by a drone attacking a moving car, resulting in traumatic amputation of his right arm. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack. Ryazan, Russia, reported a fire at a Rosneft oil refinery following drone attacks, confirmed by NASA FIRMS. "Paratrooper's Diary" claims over 300 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the past day during a massive drone attack. Rosaviatsiya introduced temporary restrictions on air traffic at Zhukovsky airport (Moscow region). Russian MoD states 159 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions between 08:00 and 20:00 MSK (22 over Moscow, 53 over Kursk, 54 over Oryol, 13 over Tula, 6 over Bryansk, 4 over Tver, 4 over Ryazan, 2 over Kaluga, 1 over Belgorod). This is an extremely high number of claimed interceptions, signifying a persistent, large-scale Ukrainian drone campaign targeting Russia.
• New Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs are reported:
  • New groups from the Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts.
  • New groups detected in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv.
  • Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • Three UAVs reported heading towards Sloviansk were "minus" (shot down/neutralized).
  • New reports confirm a group of Russian strike UAVs active in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and specifically towards Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast), a known military air base.
  • New group of UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Mena and Nizhyn.
  • Russian drones are reportedly moving towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.
  • A strong fire is reported at two enterprises in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, following alleged overnight "Geran-2" kamikaze drone strikes.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense forces shot down 11 Russian UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reported a massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 108 Shahed-type and imitator UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 destroyed by fire, 58 suppressed by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. This confirms a high-intensity, multi-directional aerial conflict.
• Russian Claimed EW Station Destruction: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast using a precision drone strike. Russian forces also claim destruction of two UAV control points and one stationary EW station in Huliaipole, Marfopil, and Luhove areas.
• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that operations in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts are an "active and effective defense." Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, using missiles and FPV drones. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attacking the entry to Lgov, Kursk Oblast, on the Kursk-Rylsk highway, with varying reports on missile numbers (3-6). Ukrainian FPV drones are actively used, with one video showing a drone carrying a bomb with Yevgeny Prigozhin's face on it targeting a Russian soldier in an open field.
• Drone Strike on Patriot Park (Moscow region): An unknown drone reportedly hit pavilion C of Patriot Park in Podolsk (Moscow region), a venue for arms exhibitions.
• Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction).

E. Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Child Evacuation: Ukraine has rescued nine more children from temporarily occupied territories, including those needing urgent medical care, suffering trauma, or denied Ukrainian education.
• Neglect of Russian Military Cemeteries: A video from Vanino, Khabarovsk Krai, shows severe neglect of a "Heroes' Alley" cemetery for fallen Russian soldiers, raising concerns about government support and potentially impacting morale.
• Ukrainian Rehabilitation: Kryvyi Rih has opened a renovated rehabilitation department with radon baths for wounded service members, expanding Ukraine's efforts in supporting injured personnel. The Kharkiv Center for Prosthetics and Rehabilitation is also a key example, with over 70% of patients having amputations due to mine-explosive injuries since the invasion.
• Internal Ukrainian Resistance: A Ukrainian military official and veteran in Novyi Rozdil (Lviv Oblast) was severely assaulted by a group of eight men during conscription notification duties, suffering a broken rib and facial hematomas. The SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih reportedly neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks on military vehicles and Ukrzaliznytsia facilities, detaining six individuals (youngest 13). This highlights ongoing internal security challenges and potential public resistance to mobilization. Civilian preparedness training for schoolchildren in Kyiv in first aid is also highlighted, aiming to enhance societal resilience.
• Russian Internal Issues - Migrants: The Head of the Investigative Committee reports increasing crime and radicalization among migrants. Russian military blogger "Colonelcassad" shared propaganda against migrants in Russia, linking them to disease outbreaks and advocating for stricter health checks.
• Ukrainian Mobilization Challenges: A Ukrainian MP reported that 45,000 men have illegally left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 30,000 detained, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated. Concerns about the quality of mobilized personnel are highlighted by an MP who claims only 5-6% are truly combat-ready.
• Russian Troop Morale/Discipline: Alleged intercepted audio from a Russian battalion commander ("Saval" of the 394th regiment) ordering the execution of subordinates ("500s") for refusing to fight, threatening them with tanks and branding them as "traitors," highlights severe morale and discipline problems, starkly contradicting Russian recruitment propaganda. Russian Ministry of Defense released a propaganda video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman urging his comrades to surrender, claiming humane treatment, aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and encouraging capitulation.
• Russian Civilian Relocation: Belgorod Oblast Governor Gladkov requested 3 billion rubles from Putin for the relocation of residents from four settlements, stating three have "practically ceased to exist" due to "harsh aggression."
• Russian Economic Strain: Reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items (onions and cabbage) in Russia over the past year, suggesting internal economic pressures possibly due to reduced harvests and quality. The Russian government also began sharply cutting expenses on key economic support programs after oil and gas revenue collapsed.
• Russian Internal Security Measures: A resident of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast was reportedly detained for actively using social media to promote radical views and calls for violent overthrow of the constitutional order and assassinating state officials, with a criminal case initiated under terrorism statutes. The FSB in Donetsk detained a woman accused of "state treason" for allegedly financing Ukrainian forces.
• Internal Russian Politics/Societal Influence: The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, expressed support for mandatory viewing of Soviet cinema in schools, citing their portrayal of "true spiritual and moral values," and stated that the national idea should be enshrined in the Constitution based on traditional values. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO" led to the dismissal of the official, with a potential military member to be appointed to the position. Russian President Putin awarded the "Hero of the Russian Federation" title to Corporal Lyudmila Vyacheslavovna Baliloy, a nurse, for heroism, in a public ceremony.
• Ukrainian Fundraising Challenges: "CyberBoroshno" reports a significant gap between requested FPV drones (144 requests for 4562 FPVs, totaling 80+ million UAH) and funds raised, forcing them to reduce drone issuance to less active combat zones and new units. This highlights the critical resource demands for Ukrainian drone capabilities and the reliance on public crowdfunding.

II. Implications and Future Outlook

The strategic landscape is marked by Russia's overt declaration of intent to establish a "buffer zone," signaling a potential new phase of offensive operations deeper into Ukrainian territory, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This declaration, coupled with ongoing, confirmed Russian tactical advances across multiple sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, suggests a concerted effort to expand control and create a more secure (from their perspective) frontier. The emphasis on degrading Ukrainian air defenses by Ukrainian forces, as demonstrated by the successful targeting of multiple SAM systems, is critical for future Ukrainian air operations.

The humanitarian aspect remains dire, with continued civilian casualties from Russian strikes and Ukraine's efforts to rescue children from occupied territories. Internal Russian issues, such as the neglect of military cemeteries and discussions about migrant control, highlight internal pressures and resource challenges. Diplomatic efforts, particularly prisoner exchanges, offer a rare avenue for cooperation amidst the conflict, while external political shifts, such as Donald Trump's stance on sanctions, could significantly influence future international support dynamics. The conflict appears set for a prolonged period of high-intensity ground combat, coupled with sustained aerial attrition efforts and complex diplomatic maneuvering. The GRU's alleged cyberattack on NATO border cameras is a significant escalation in hybrid warfare, directly impacting Ukraine's logistical support and intelligence gathering capabilities.

Ukrainian military experts, while acknowledging the potential for summer offensives, do not anticipate major Russian breakthroughs due to current Russian capabilities and a predicted resource depletion if the current offensive fails. This assessment highlights the critical importance of continued Ukrainian mobilization and consistent Western military aid.

III. Risk Assessment

• Escalation Risk: High, given Russia's declared intent for a buffer zone, which will necessitate further offensive actions.
• Humanitarian Impact: Increased risk of civilian casualties and displacement as buffer zone operations commence and intensified strikes continue. The confirmed civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and the need for civilian relocation in Belgorod Oblast further underscore this.
• Logistical Strain: Continued high-intensity combat will place immense strain on both sides' logistics, supply chains, and manpower.
• Information Warfare Volatility: Diplomatic statements and events (e.g., Trump's comments, prisoner exchanges) will be heavily exploited by both sides for information operations, leading to contested narratives. Russian claims of Ukrainian defensive weakness, if unaddressed, could impact morale. Russia is actively using propaganda and disinformation, including portraying Ukrainian forces as "Nazis," as evidenced by the video of a captured combatant with Nazi tattoos.
• Domestic Stability (Russia): Continued internal dissent regarding military service and treatment of veterans could pose a long-term risk to Russian internal stability and morale, exacerbated by issues like the alleged "Saval" incident. Economic strain (rising food prices, budget cuts) could further exacerbate social tensions.
• Ukrainian Resilience: Maintaining public morale and securing continuous, robust international support will be crucial for Ukraine to resist Russian advances and defend its sovereign territory, particularly given internal mobilization challenges and funding gaps for critical equipment like FPV drones.
• Cybersecurity Threats: High and increasing, given the alleged GRU cyberattacks targeting NATO border infrastructure for aid to Ukraine. This could directly impact military logistics and intelligence.

IV. Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense Enhancement: Immediate priority for Ukraine to acquire and deploy more robust air defense systems, especially against guided aerial bombs and reconnaissance UAVs, and to protect key airbases like Myrhorod. The high number of Russian drone interceptions (159 claimed in 12 hours) highlights the overwhelming aerial threat.
• Counter-UAV Capabilities: Increased investment in EW systems and counter-drone technologies for both sides. Ukrainian FPV drone production and development should continue to be prioritized for offensive operations. Crowdfunding efforts for drones indicate continued reliance on varied sources, but state procurement needs to address the funding gaps.
• Precision Munitions: Sustained supply of precision-guided munitions for Ukrainian forces to effectively target high-value Russian assets.
• Logistical Support: Continued international provision of vehicles, fuel, and repair capabilities for Ukraine's frontline units.
• Humanitarian Aid & Rehabilitation: Ongoing support for medical rehabilitation, civilian infrastructure repair, and child rescue efforts in Ukraine. Civilian preparedness training is a key part of this.
• Cybersecurity: Maintaining robust cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive data and communications, especially in light of internal security threats and propaganda efforts, and the recent GRU cyberattack warning targeting logistics.
• Demining Capabilities: Continued investment in and mass production of automated demining machines like "GART 5100" is critical for long-term recovery and operational mobility.

V. Operational Workflow Updates

• Data Collection and Preprocessing:
  • Enhanced focus on satellite imagery and drone feeds for real-time monitoring of Russian "buffer zone" implementation and advances in new areas (Sumy, Kharkiv).
  • Prioritize signal intelligence and human intelligence to verify reported ground gains (e.g., Novonikolaevka, Verkhnokamyanske) and internal Russian military issues (e.g., "Saval" incident, mobilization resistance, economic strain).
  • Cross-reference Ukrainian and Russian reports of drone activity and air defense engagements for accuracy, especially regarding civilian casualties in Russian border regions and Russian domestic attacks.
  • Integrate intelligence on potential cyberattacks on logistical networks from UK and allied warnings.
  • Collect and analyze data on claimed enemy casualties, including visual evidence of bodies, for verification and intelligence.
• Analysis and Modeling:
  • Update predictive models to account for the newly declared "buffer zone" objective and its implications for Russian force disposition and targets.
  • Analyze patterns in Russian KAB and drone strikes to predict high-threat areas and optimize Ukrainian air defense deployment.
  • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD operations based on confirmed destruction of Russian air defense systems.
  • Model the impact of manpower and morale issues on Russian operational capabilities, as highlighted by internal Russian discussions and alleged command behavior, and the high rate of claimed drone interceptions over Russian territory.
  • Assess the impact of civilian casualties and displacement in Russian border regions on Russian public opinion and resource allocation.
  • Analyze propaganda efforts, including the use of POWs and images of casualties, to identify key narratives and their potential impact.
• Reporting and Visualization:
  • Develop and continuously update high-resolution maps illustrating Russian advances, particularly in Donetsk, Southern Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk border, and new border regions.
  • Provide real-time alerts for significant shifts in Russian drone activity, especially those targeting strategic locations or critical infrastructure (e.g., Myrhorod, Patriot Park, Ryazan refinery, Moscow airports).
  • Generate concise reports on the impact of cross-border strikes (both Ukrainian and Russian) on civilian and military targets.
  • Visualize the status of prisoner exchange efforts and international diplomatic engagements for strategic-level awareness.
  • Report on civilian displacement and aid requests in Russian border regions, including financial allocations.
  • Disseminate counter-propaganda addressing Russian narratives, including those portraying Ukrainian forces as "Nazis."
• Feedback Loop:
  • Establish a robust feedback loop with Ukrainian ground and air defense commanders to validate intelligence on Russian advances and drone tactics, and to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter-operations.
  • Integrate feedback from diplomatic channels regarding shifts in international support and negotiation prospects.
  • Monitor public and internal Russian sources for information on morale, mobilization, and internal stability to inform long-term strategic assessments.
  • Monitor the impact of propaganda on both sides.

Major Updates on the Military Situation

Strategic Developments

• Russian "Buffer Zone" Declaration: Russian President Putin has formally declared a decision to create a "buffer security zone" along the Russia-Ukraine border, specifically targeting Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts. This is being implemented by "actively suppressing enemy firing points," signaling potential further territorial expansion into Ukrainian Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned this, stating it proves Putin is the sole cause of the war.
• Zaluzhnyi's Realistic Outlook: Former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated that achieving Ukraine's 1991 borders will not happen miraculously, acknowledging that the "enemy has resources for war" and can continue offensive actions. This suggests a prolonged conflict and a need for sustained effort.
• Ukrainian Diplomatic-Military Strategy: President Zelenskyy held a meeting with military officials to discuss the "military foundation for diplomacy" and the next technical meeting with Russians, emphasizing that battlefield performance is key to achieving a ceasefire and a new security architecture.
• Trump's Influence on Sanctions: Donald Trump has reportedly opposed new "hellish" sanctions against Russia, stating he believes Putin wants to end the war. This could signal a potential shift in US policy and impact international pressure on Russia, raising concerns among European leaders.
• Prisoner Exchange Progress: Both Russia and Ukraine have submitted lists for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange, indicating active humanitarian diplomacy. However, a Russian official's claim that Ukraine lacks enough Russian POWs for such an exchange points to ongoing information operations.
• Lithuanian Sanctions on Russia/Belarus: Lithuania plans to impose national sanctions on Russia and Belarus from August 1, limiting access to Lithuanian technologies, software, and services, reflecting ongoing economic warfare against the aggressor states.
• Russian Long-Term Border Region Commitment: Putin has ordered a comprehensive program for the long-term restoration and support of Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, including housing, infrastructure, compensation, and demining, demonstrating a strategic commitment to these border areas.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Continued Russian Advances in Donetsk: Russian forces are systematically advancing towards Kurdiumivka and Dyliyivka on the Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk direction. They claim advances towards Nova Poltavka, aiming to cut off Ukrainian groupings near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka. Fierce battles continue in multiple locations, including Yablunivka, Zorya, and other areas.
• Southern Donetsk Pressure: Russian "Vostok" group claims continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses on the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions, entering eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye.
• Dnipropetrovsk Border Claims: Russian sources claim units of the 90th Guards Tank Division have breached Ukrainian defenses and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Novonikolaevka, though Ukrainian authorities deny this as a fake. Ukrainian forces are reportedly building new defensive lines in the area.
• Sumy Oblast Engagements: Russian forces claim liberation of Maryino and ongoing battles for Belovody, with reports of "burning out" forest belts with Ukrainian forces near Myropillya.
• Kharkiv Oblast Advances: Russian forces claim advances towards Pokalyanoye and seized forest areas north of Volchansk Khutors. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, incurring heavy losses but accumulating reserves, suggesting continued intent to establish a "buffer zone." Russian forces claim to be pushing Ukrainian forces from the territory and establishing a buffer zone to prevent cross-border strikes.
• Casualty Reports: Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies near Chasov Yar and discovered numerous unrecovered bodies (some burned) of Ukrainian soldiers near Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, attributing this to poor evacuation practices. Ukrainian sources also claim significant Russian losses (980 personnel, multiple vehicles and artillery pieces in the past day).
• Ukrainian FPV Drone Effectiveness: Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics, personnel, and equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, antennas, and mortar positions, as evidenced by the 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion. One report also details the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by a Russian FPV drone near Kupyansk.
• Ukrainian Fortification Efforts: Ukrainian artillery units (e.g., 2nd Self-Propelled Artillery Battery of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade) are actively seeking excavators for "equipping positions," indicating a strategic focus on defensive fortification and survivability. Kharkiv Oblast has built over 400 defensive structures since 2022.

Aerial and Naval Activity

• Massive Russian Drone Interceptions over Russia: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down an extremely high number of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions, with a reported 159 drones intercepted between 08:00 and 20:00 MSK on May 22, including 22 over Moscow region, 53 over Kursk, and 54 over Oryol. This signifies persistent, large-scale Ukrainian deep drone attacks, causing mobile internet disruptions in parts of Moscow and Tula Oblasts and fires (e.g., Ryazan oil refinery).
• Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Russian Shahed and other UAVs are reported in new groups across Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts, with some targeting strategic locations like Myrhorod (a known military air base). A large overnight attack involved 108 Shahed-type and imitator UAVs, with 93 neutralized.
• Russian KAB Use: Continued extensive use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation over Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy Oblasts.
• Ukrainian Cross-Border Drone Strikes: Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, using missiles and FPV drones. Ukrainian FPV drones are actively used, with one video showing a drone carrying a bomb with Yevgeny Prigozhin's face on it targeting a Russian soldier. Civilian vehicles and infrastructure (e.g., private homes, agricultural machinery) in Russian border regions (Belgorod Oblast) have been hit by Ukrainian drones, causing casualties.
• Naval Status: The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC, but notes three enemy ships, including one Kalibr missile carrier, are in the Mediterranean Sea. NATO naval formations, including intelligence and mine countermeasure vessels, are active in the Baltic Sea, which is viewed by Russia as an escalation.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

• Continued Civilian Casualties: Russian strikes have caused civilian casualties and damage in various Ukrainian regions (e.g., Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk), including the death of a young mother and injury to her son from a drone in Kyiv Oblast. Russian cross-border strikes have also caused civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast (12 injured including 2 children) and Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast (3 injured including a 7-year-old child).
• Civilian Preparedness in Ukraine: Kyiv is implementing projects to train schoolchildren in basic first aid, including tourniquet application, to enhance civilian preparedness and resilience.
• Propaganda on POWs: Russian Ministry of Defense released a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman urging his comrades to surrender, claiming humane treatment, a clear psychological operation.
• Internal Russian Economic Strain: The Russian government has significantly cut expenses on key economic support programs after oil and gas revenue collapsed, impacting aviation, industrial development, and automotive sectors. Reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items.
• Internal Russian Security Concerns: Russian authorities are addressing increasing crime and radicalization among migrants and continue to detain individuals for promoting anti-state views.
• Ukrainian Mobilization Challenges: Ukraine faces challenges with illegal border crossings and concerns about the combat readiness of newly mobilized personnel.
• Ukrainian Rehabilitation Centers: Ukraine continues to expand its network of rehabilitation centers for wounded military personnel, with a new large center opened in Kyiv Oblast, increasing overall capacity for recovery.
• Russian Memorialization & Morale: Putin awarded a "Hero of the Russian Federation" title to a female corporal, a nurse, for battlefield heroism, a clear morale-boosting effort. However, images from Vanino, Khabarovsk Krai, show severe neglect of military cemeteries, potentially impacting morale.
• Targeting of "Memes": Russian military channels are openly mocking the death of a 19-year-old Ukrainian soldier (Isaak Velichko), who was also known from a TV show and memes, after his alleged death by FPV drone near Konstantinovka, highlighting the dehumanizing nature of some propaganda.
• Corruption Allegations (Ukraine): El Pais reports that a Ukrainian official, Portnov, transferred an elite mansion to his children shortly before his alleged death, possibly to hide assets from sanctions or criminal prosecution, raising internal corruption concerns.