Situation Report

Military Intelligence Assessment: Ukraine Operations - May 22, 2025

I. Major Operational Updates

A. Strategic Intent & Border Security

• Russian "Buffer Zone" Declaration: Russian President Putin has formally declared a decision to create a "buffer security zone" along the Russia-Ukraine border, specifically targeting Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, which border Ukrainian Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts. This is being implemented by Russian Armed Forces through "actively suppressing enemy firing points," signaling potential further territorial expansion under the guise of defensive measures. This declaration is interpreted by Russian military bloggers as a political decision to advance into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Justification Narrative: Putin frames Ukrainian cross-border attacks as "terrorist methods" targeting non-military objectives, necessitating the buffer zone for Russian civilian protection and border security.
• Long-Term Commitment to Border Regions: Russia plans a comprehensive program for restoration of affected Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, indicating a long-term commitment to these areas and their stability.

B. Diplomatic Developments

• Prisoner Exchange Progress: Both Russia and Ukraine have submitted lists for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange. Ukraine is currently verifying the Russian list and has completed its own. Russia stated the exchange would take several days, and Ukraine's Yermak emphasizes Russia should accelerate the process. This indicates active, high-level humanitarian diplomacy.
• Ukraine-Slovenia Summit: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has spoken with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob, inviting Slovenia to the "Ukraine – South-East Europe Summit," which Slovenia has confirmed attendance for. This signifies Ukraine's ongoing efforts to strengthen international alliances and regional cooperation. Zelenskyy has also invited Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Moldova to this summit.
• Trump's Stance on Russia Sanctions: Reports indicate Donald Trump has opposed immediate "hellish" sanctions against Russia and has conveyed to European leaders that Putin desires to end the war, seemingly without full awareness of ongoing ceasefire discussions. This suggests potential shifts in US policy depending on future administrations, impacting the unity of international pressure on Russia.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Comments: Rubio stated the US is working with NATO partners to find additional Patriot systems for Ukraine and that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily, requiring negotiations. He noted the conflict diverts resources from "more serious threats" in Asia.
• Potential EU/US Involvement in Negotiations: A European Commission spokesperson reportedly stated that future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations could include the EU and US, allegedly agreed upon after a Trump-European leaders call.
• Vatican Negotiation Initiative: The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June.
• Ukraine's Financial Proposal to EU: Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko proposed that EU partners directly allocate a portion of their GDP to fund the Ukrainian Armed Forces, integrating the Ukrainian army into Europe's defense system. Currently, partner funds go into Ukraine's budget and cannot be used for defense needs.

C. Ground Operations & Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast - Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces claim capturing a stronghold northwest of Ozaryanivka, taking one Ukrainian soldier prisoner. Ukrainian drone control points destroyed north of Bila Hora and in Predtechyne. Russian forces are systematically advancing towards Kurdiumivka and from Druzhba towards Dyliyivka, also striking Ukrainian rear objects. Russian military bloggers claim 2/3 of Otradne is under their control, and advances east of Fedorivka. Ukrainian sources report fierce battles and systematic Russian advances towards Kurdiumivka and Dyliyivka. Russian forces claim successful advance from Green Field towards Ihnatovka by 3 km, and occupied a 3.4 km wide area north and east of Romanovka. Russian artillery claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold near Otradne. Ukrainian forces of the 25th Airborne Brigade reportedly targeted Russian assault troops hiding in a house on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian General Staff reports 43 Russian offensive actions repelled, with continued fighting in Yablunivka, Zorya, Nova Poltavka, and other areas. Russian military bloggers claim "practically cleared" Toretsk and advances on the Konstantinovka direction. Russian forces claim to have almost cut off the Ukrainian grouping near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka with advances to Nova Poltavka. Russian military reports an FPV drone strike compilation from May 21 near Pokrovsk, destroying NATO armored vehicles, fire points, mortars, infantry, positions, and transport. Russian forces are engaged in continued battles northwest of Dyleyevka, attempting to secure forest belts and countering Ukrainian drone control points. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point near Dyleyevka using artillery. Russian sources claim that a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attempted to penetrate Krymske, but their position was destroyed by Russian drone operators. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is transitioning into a "grey zone."
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian "Vostok" group claims continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses on the Shakhtyorsk (over 2 km deep, 1.5 km along front) and Vremevsky (occupying buildings in eastern Zelenoye Pole, clearing treeline, advancing 500m) directions. Ukrainian counterattacks were reportedly repelled. A Leopard tank and two MaxxPro vehicles were reportedly destroyed by Lancet drones. Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications in this sector. Russian "Vostok" group claims entering eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and advancing east of Fedorivka. Russian "Vostok" group claims destroying Ukrainian construction equipment near Otradne, noting Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian sources claim that units of the 90th Guards Tank Division have breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with Russian assault units claiming a quarter of Novonikolaevka secured. Ukrainian authorities have denied this claim, stating it is a deliberate fake for intimidation. Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, and Russian UAV operators are observing and striking Ukrainian engineering units. Over 20 Russian attacks reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with Nikopol region suffering drone and heavy artillery attacks, damaging infrastructure and homes. Novopavlivka community in Synelnykivskyi district was hit by KABs.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces claim to have liberated the border village of Maryino and report ongoing battles for Belovody, claiming significant Ukrainian losses in these areas. Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and near Yunakovka. Russian marine infantry units from the 177th Separate Guards Regiment are reportedly "burning out" forest belts with Ukrainian forces near Myropillya. Russian forces used "Geran" drones to strike targets in Sumy and Shostka. An Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, reportedly killed 6 and wounded over 10 servicemen, leading to calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces claim advances towards the logistical point of Pokalyanoye and seized forest areas north of Volchansk Khutors, forcing the Ukrainian "Forpost" border detachment to retreat. Significant losses are claimed for the Ukrainian 113th Territorial Defense Brigade. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment and multiple artillery pieces. Ukrainian aeroreconnaissance units are crowdfunding for vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces claim a Starlink satellite communication station was destroyed in Kharkiv region. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is constructing underground schools. Oleg Synegubov reports transfer of 10 minibuses to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources are amplifying narratives about Ukrainian forces "screaming" and suffering heavy losses near Volchanskie Khutora and Tikhoe (Kharkiv Oblast), attributing this to a lack of "adequate command" and critical deficiencies in manpower, ammunition, and communication.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that operations in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts are an "active and effective defense," claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties in the Kursk area since August. Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, using missiles and FPV drones. A Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces attempted to break through near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, suffering losses from mines and drones. WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian missile strike on Lgov, Kursk Oblast, with claimed civilian casualties (12 injured, including 2 children aged 13 and 16, with traumatic brain injuries and shrapnel wounds). The Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, reported his car was hit by a Ukrainian drone. Russian air defense claims large numbers of Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (135 total between 04:00-18:00 MSK) over Kursk and surrounding regions. Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put with destruction of BMPs and Stryker APCs. Two elderly men were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts of Kursk Oblast.
• Novopavlivka Direction (Donetsk): Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, and other settlements. Russian "Vostok" group claims entering eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and advancing east of Fedorivka.
• Siversk Direction: Russian sources claim advances of 1.5 km into the residential area of Verkhnokamyanske and occupation of new positions in the western part.
• Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian media "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Kherson, indicating continued military activity in the city. Russian artillery fire in Berislav, Kherson Oblast, killed two civilians.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast communities (excluding the city), due to KABs. Russian forces used FABs with UMPK (glide bomb kits) to strike multi-story buildings in Stepnohorsk, claiming they were occupied by Ukrainian forces. An air raid alert was declared specifically for the city of Zaporizhzhia, indicating an immediate threat beyond the previous oblast-wide alert. Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, targeting residential areas. A video from the Kalinouski Regiment (Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine) showcases FPV drone strikes on Russian-occupied buildings, a 120-mm mortar, personnel, antennas, and communication elements on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

D. Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (Donetsk): Ukrainian "Charlie" company (14th UAV regiment) and "Black Forest" (15th artillery reconnaissance brigade) claim to have detected and destroyed a Russian command vehicle and three air defense systems (Tor, Buk-M3, and S-300) in Donetsk Oblast. This showcases effective Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD operations.
• Russian Aerial Reconnaissance (Kharkiv): A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active in northern Kharkiv Oblast, potentially serving as a spotter for enemy fire.
• Russian KAB Launches (Widespread): Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian forces are reported on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, indicating continued aerial support for ground operations.
• Intensified Russian Drone Attacks on Russia: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin initially reported 12 downed UAVs, updated to 26 repelled drones approaching Moscow. Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK over various regions, including 9 over the Moscow region, further highlighting persistent Ukrainian deep drone attacks and Russian air defense efforts. Governor of Tula confirmed two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. Russian air defense forces destroyed three UAVs in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. The Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, reported his car was hit by a Ukrainian drone, featured in Russian state media as an example of Ukrainian "terrorist methods." Four more UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Domodedovo Airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast reported a civilian wounded by a drone attacking a moving car, resulting in traumatic amputation of his right arm. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack. Ryazan, Russia, reported a fire at a Rosneft oil refinery following drone attacks, confirmed by NASA FIRMS.
• New Widespread Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs are reported:
  • New groups from the Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts.
  • New groups detected in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv.
  • Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • Three UAVs reported heading towards Sloviansk were "minus" (shot down/neutralized).
  • New reports confirm a group of Russian strike UAVs active in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and specifically towards Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast), a known military air base.
  • A new group of UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast is heading towards Mena and Nizhyn.
  • Russian drones are reportedly moving towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.
  • A strong fire is reported at two enterprises in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, following alleged overnight "Geran-2" kamikaze drone strikes.
• Russian Claimed EW Station Destruction: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast using a precision drone strike.
• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that operations in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts are an "active and effective defense." Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, using missiles and FPV drones. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attacking the entry to Lgov, Kursk Oblast, on the Kursk-Rylsk highway, with varying reports on missile numbers (3-6).
• Drone Strike on Patriot Park (Moscow region): An unknown drone reportedly hit pavilion C of Patriot Park in Podolsk (Moscow region), a venue for arms exhibitions.
• Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction).

E. Humanitarian & Social Issues

• Child Evacuation: Ukraine has rescued nine more children from temporarily occupied territories, including those needing urgent medical care, suffering trauma, or denied Ukrainian education.
• Neglect of Russian Military Cemeteries: A video from Vanino, Khabarovsk Krai, shows severe neglect of a "Heroes' Alley" cemetery for fallen Russian soldiers, raising concerns about government support and potentially impacting morale.
• Ukrainian Rehabilitation: Kryvyi Rih has opened a renovated rehabilitation department with radon baths for wounded service members, expanding Ukraine's efforts in supporting injured personnel.
• Internal Ukrainian Resistance: A Ukrainian military official and veteran in Novyi Rozdil (Lviv Oblast) was severely assaulted by a group of eight men during conscription notification duties, suffering a broken rib and facial hematomas. The SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih reportedly neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks on military vehicles and Ukrzaliznytsia facilities, detaining six individuals (youngest 13). This highlights ongoing internal security challenges and potential public resistance to mobilization.
• Russian Internal Issues - Migrants: The Head of the Investigative Committee reports increasing crime and radicalization among migrants. Russian military blogger "Colonelcassad" shared propaganda against migrants in Russia, linking them to disease outbreaks and advocating for stricter health checks.
• Ukrainian Mobilization Challenges: A Ukrainian MP reported that 45,000 men have illegally left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 30,000 detained, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated. Concerns about the quality of mobilized personnel are highlighted by an MP who claims only 5-6% are truly combat-ready.
• Russian Troop Morale/Discipline: Alleged intercepted audio from a Russian battalion commander ("Saval" of the 394th regiment) ordering the execution of subordinates ("500s") for refusing to fight, threatening them with tanks and branding them as "traitor**s," highlights severe morale and discipline problems, starkly contradicting Russian recruitment propaganda.
• Russian Civilian Relocation: Belgorod Oblast Governor Gladkov requested 3 billion rubles from Putin for the relocation of residents from four settlements, stating three have "practically ceased to exist" due to "harsh aggression."

II. Implications and Future Outlook

The strategic landscape is marked by Russia's overt declaration of intent to establish a "buffer zone," signaling a potential new phase of offensive operations deeper into Ukrainian territory, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. This declaration, coupled with ongoing, confirmed Russian tactical advances across multiple sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, suggests a concerted effort to expand control and create a more secure (from their perspective) frontier. The emphasis on degrading Ukrainian air defenses by Ukrainian forces, as demonstrated by the successful targeting of multiple SAM systems, is critical for future Ukrainian air operations.

The humanitarian aspect remains dire, with continued civilian casualties from Russian strikes and Ukraine's efforts to rescue children from occupied territories. Internal Russian issues, such as the neglect of military cemeteries and discussions about migrant control, highlight internal pressures and resource challenges. Diplomatic efforts, particularly prisoner exchanges, offer a rare avenue for cooperation amidst the conflict, while external political shifts, such as Donald Trump's stance on sanctions, could significantly influence future international support dynamics. The conflict appears set for a prolonged period of high-intensity ground combat, coupled with sustained aerial attrition efforts and complex diplomatic maneuvering.

III. Risk Assessment

• Escalation Risk: High, given Russia's declared intent for a buffer zone, which will necessitate further offensive actions.
• Humanitarian Impact: Increased risk of civilian casualties and displacement as buffer zone operations commence and intensified strikes continue. The confirmed civilian casualties in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and the need for civilian relocation in Belgorod Oblast further underscore this.
• Logistical Strain: Continued high-intensity combat will place immense strain on both sides' logistics, supply chains, and manpower.
• Information Warfare Volatility: Diplomatic statements and events (e.g., Trump's comments, prisoner exchanges) will be heavily exploited by both sides for information operations, leading to contested narratives. Russian claims of Ukrainian defensive weakness, if unaddressed, could impact morale.
• Domestic Stability (Russia): Continued internal dissent regarding military service and treatment of veterans could pose a long-term risk to Russian internal stability and morale, exacerbated by issues like the alleged "Saval" incident.
• Ukrainian Resilience: Maintaining public morale and securing continuous, robust international support will be crucial for Ukraine to resist Russian advances and defend its sovereign territory, particularly given internal mobilization challenges.

IV. Resource Allocation Considerations

• Air Defense Enhancement: Immediate priority for Ukraine to acquire and deploy more robust air defense systems, especially against guided aerial bombs and reconnaissance UAVs, and to protect key airbases like Myrhorod.
• Counter-UAV Capabilities: Increased investment in EW systems and counter-drone technologies for both sides. Ukrainian FPV drone production and development should continue to be prioritized for offensive operations. Crowdfunding efforts for drones indicate continued reliance on varied sources.
• Precision Munitions: Sustained supply of precision-guided munitions for Ukrainian forces to effectively target high-value Russian assets.
• Logistical Support: Continued international provision of vehicles, fuel, and repair capabilities for Ukraine's frontline units.
• Humanitarian Aid & Rehabilitation: Ongoing support for medical rehabilitation, civilian infrastructure repair, and child rescue efforts in Ukraine.
• Cybersecurity: Maintaining robust cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive data and communications, especially in light of internal security threats and propaganda efforts, and the recent GRU cyberattack warning targeting logistics.
• Demining Capabilities: Continued investment in and mass production of automated demining machines like "GART 5100" is critical for long-term recovery and operational mobility.

V. Operational Workflow Updates

• Data Collection and Preprocessing:
  • Enhanced focus on satellite imagery and drone feeds for real-time monitoring of Russian "buffer zone" implementation and advances in new areas (Sumy, Kharkiv).
  • Prioritize signal intelligence and human intelligence to verify reported ground gains (e.g., Novonikolaevka, Verkhnokamyanske) and internal Russian military issues (e.g., "Saval" incident, mobilization resistance).
  • Cross-reference Ukrainian and Russian reports of drone activity and air defense engagements for accuracy, especially regarding civilian casualties in Russian border regions.
  • Integrate intelligence on potential cyberattacks on logistical networks from UK and allied warnings.
• Analysis and Modeling:
  • Update predictive models to account for the newly declared "buffer zone" objective and its implications for Russian force disposition and targets.
  • Analyze patterns in Russian KAB and drone strikes to predict high-threat areas and optimize Ukrainian air defense deployment.
  • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD operations based on confirmed destruction of Russian air defense systems.
  • Model the impact of manpower and morale issues on Russian operational capabilities, as highlighted by internal Russian discussions and alleged command behavior.
  • Assess the impact of civilian casualties and displacement in Russian border regions on Russian public opinion and resource allocation.
• Reporting and Visualization:
  • Develop and continuously update high-resolution maps illustrating Russian advances, particularly in Donetsk, Southern Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk border, and new border regions.
  • Provide real-time alerts for significant shifts in Russian drone activity, especially those targeting strategic locations or critical infrastructure (e.g., Myrhorod, Patriot Park, Ryazan refinery).
  • Generate concise reports on the impact of cross-border strikes (both Ukrainian and Russian) on civilian and military targets.
  • Visualize the status of prisoner exchange efforts and international diplomatic engagements for strategic-level awareness.
  • Report on civilian displacement and aid requests in Russian border regions, including financial allocations.
• Feedback Loop:
  • Establish a robust feedback loop with Ukrainian ground and air defense commanders to validate intelligence on Russian advances and drone tactics, and to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter-operations.
  • Integrate feedback from diplomatic channels regarding shifts in international support and negotiation prospects.
  • Monitor public and internal Russian sources for information on morale, mobilization, and internal stability to inform long-term strategic assessments.