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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-05-22 12:53:30Z
9 months ago
Previous (2025-05-22 12:23:26Z)

Major Updates on the Military Situation

I. Command and Control

  • Russian Leadership Awards: Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded Foreign Minister Lavrov the Order of St. Andrew the First-Called, Russia's highest state honor, and bestowed "Hero of the Russian Federation" titles upon Efreitor Lyudmila Balilova (a military nurse who shielded a wounded soldier) and Dr. Vladimir Kharlan (chief physician of Oleshky Central District Hospital in occupied Kherson Oblast, who reportedly faced attacks by Ukrainian forces). These awards signal strong presidential endorsement of current foreign policy, aim to boost military morale, and work to legitimize Russia's control over occupied territories.
  • Russian Internal Control and Legal Actions: The Russian State Duma ratified extradition treaties with Thailand and Seychelles, facilitating the return of wanted citizens. Additionally, a letter from a State Duma Deputy to the Investigative Committee dated May 14, 2025, requests an investigation into the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Center for "anti-Russian activities" and alleged "Israeli influence," indicating ongoing internal crackdowns on perceived dissent and liberal elements. An ex-deputy governor of Krasnodar Krai was detained on suspicion of abuse of power. A lawyer from Vorkuta was sentenced to 15 years for "calls to extremism" and "justification of terrorism" based on Telegram comments ("Death to Putin's orcs," "Glory to RDK") and a message to his son asking if he wanted to join RDK.
  • Ukrainian Prisoner Exchange Efforts: President Zelenskyy reported that Russia has submitted lists for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange, and Ukraine is actively verifying details for each individual.
  • Ukrainian Military Personnel Support: A video from Kryvyi Rih shows a newly renovated rehabilitation department with radon baths for wounded service members, part of 8 such facilities totaling 256 beds, having treated 4,000 servicemen since the war began.
  • Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence: Ukrainian SSU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih reportedly identified and neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks against military vehicles, with two teenagers reporting the attempts. The SSU has recorded over 600 such recruitment attempts, with 22% targeting minors.
  • Internal Russian Military Issues: A Russian servicemember reportedly stole a car while intoxicated and struck two schoolgirls in Prokopyevsk, having fled his unit prior to the incident, highlighting potential internal discipline issues. A Russian military blogger reflected that the "army of peacetime has not transformed into a normal army of wartime," characterizing it as an "army of some surreal timelessness," indicating internal concerns about military effectiveness.
  • Russian Migrant Control: The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia reported a significant increase in crimes by foreign citizens in Q1 2025 and proposed mandatory biometric registration for all migrants. Russian law enforcement is reportedly conducting raids to identify Russian citizens who haven't registered for military service, claiming 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. A Russian military blogger advocates for a ban on nikabs and mandatory oral Russian language testing for migrant children entering schools, linking it to corruption and "alien ideology."
  • Ukrainian De-Russification: A monument to Russian Emperor Peter I was dismantled in Poltava, Ukraine, marking a de-Russification effort. Russian sources condemn this as "rewriting history" and "Ukraine rotting from within."

II. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • Novaya Poltavka Liberated (Russian Claim): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian military bloggers claim the liberation of Novaya Poltavka (Donetsk People's Republic) by the "Tsentr" group of forces. This settlement is described as strategically important, located on a route connecting Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, with control over a significant section of this transport artery.
    • Constantinovka Anticipation: "Alex Parker Returns" suggests "Konstantinovka get ready," implying a potential major offensive or strategic maneuver, comparing it to the "biggest pincer movements since the capture of Mariupol." New messages highlight intense ground fighting on the Konstantinovka direction with reports of Russian units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division advancing. A Ukrainian expert reportedly stated that Russian forces have cut the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway from the northeast, threatening movement towards Konstantinovka and the Ukrainian Toretsk grouping.
    • Novo-Pavlivka - Mezheva Line: Ukrainian sources report that Russian FPV drones are now reaching the Novo-Pavlivka - Mezheva line on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, signaling an extended range of Russian drone operations and increased threat to Ukrainian rear areas.
    • Russian Deep Strikes: Colonelcassad reports detailed Russian strikes on Ukrainian military targets in Donetsk Oblast overnight (May 22, 2025), including:
      • Kramatorsk: Four UAVs struck the NKMZ administrative and technical sector, allegedly destroying a command post of the 25th Border Detachment, an automated radio communication post, Western-made armored vehicles (Mamba Mk7, MaxxPro Dash), and the "Basalt-M" automated information distribution system. Claimed casualties include 3 eliminated and 5 wounded.
      • Konstantinovka: A strike on a temporary deployment point of the 5th Brigade, destroying tents, a generator, and damaging an armored vehicle ("Novator"). Claimed 7 wounded and destruction of RPG-7 and M72 LAW ammunition depots.
      • Dolgaya Balka: Four UAVs struck the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade's position, destroying a field command post, a "Bars-8MMK" armored vehicle with a 120mm mortar, and causing a fire at a communications depot with Harris Falcon III radio stations and a "Shchit-M" EW system.
    • Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian "Vostok" group claims continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses on the Shakhtyorsk direction (over 2 km deep, 1.5 km along front, clearing 5 treelines, occupying height) and Vremevsky direction (occupying buildings in eastern Zelenoye Pole, clearing treeline, advancing 500m; occupying buildings in northeast Novopol, clearing adjacent treeline). Ukrainian counterattacks in these areas (23rd, 33rd, 31st Mechanized Brigades) were reportedly repelled by Russian forces.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad claims Russian assault groups occupied new positions in Vovchansk and "Far Easterners" secured positions in the southeastern and eastern parts of Otradnoye. Ukrainian forces repelled one Russian attack towards Stroivka. Ukrainian sources report that Russian FPV drones are now targeting Kharkiv suburbs with RPG warheads.
  • Sumy Oblast: The acting governor of Kursk Oblast reports a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a shop in Pushkarnoye village, Korenevo district, injuring two civilians. Russian forces claim to have liberated the border village of Maryino and report ongoing battles for Belovody, claiming significant Ukrainian losses (specifically from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade) in these areas. Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and are about 200 meters from Yunakovka. These Russian successes are linked to Ukrainian authorities announcing the evacuation of 202 settlements in Sumy Oblast. A ballistic missile threat and strike have been reported in Shostka. Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, hitting a post office building with three missiles (allegedly Russian military personnel located there) and burning police vehicle boxes at a police station using FPV drones.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two Russian VDV soldiers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division (Mountain) operating in the Zaporozhye direction are appealing to the public for eight Starlink satellite communication terminals, indicating communication deficiencies and reliance on crowdfunding for critical equipment.
  • Kherson Oblast (Occupied): Russian official recognition of civilian contributions in occupied Kherson Oblast, with the chief physician of Oleshky Central District Hospital awarded "Hero of the Russian Federation," serves to legitimize Russian control.

III. Aerial and Naval Activity

  • Russian Missile/Drone Strikes:
    • Widespread Drone Activity (Claimed by Russia): The Russian MoD claims shooting down 485 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions and the Black Sea from May 20 (20:00) to May 22 (08:00), with 63 over Moscow Oblast. Another report (Archangel of Spetsnaz) claims 182 drones shot down from May 20 (20:00) to May 22 (05:30) across numerous Western Russian oblasts, with the highest numbers over Kursk (64), Moscow (35), Belgorod (23), and Oryol (22). These claims suggest a persistent, widespread Ukrainian drone campaign deep into Russian territory.
    • Ballistic Missile Threats: Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea towards Kirovohrad Oblast (Kropyvnytskyi). Initial reports indicated impacts in Kropyvnytskyi, but "Nikolaevskiy Vanek" later claimed "minus" on both missiles, suggesting successful interception. "Operational Z" (Russian source) confirms two ballistic missile strikes on an "enemy object" in Kropyvnytskyi. A ballistic missile threat and strike have been reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
    • Patriot System Claim: The Russian MoD claims an Iskander strike destroyed a US-made Patriot air defense system (including its AN/MPQ-65 radar, engagement control station, and two M901 launchers with PAC-3 MSE missiles) near Ordzhonikidze, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • HAWK System Claim: The Russian MoD also claims an Iskander strike destroyed a HAWK air defense system position near Karnaukhovka, Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, that had been removed from duty shortly before the strike.
    • Industrial/Logistics Strikes: Colonelcassad reports detailed Russian strikes overnight (May 22, 2025):
      • Pavlograd (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Massive UAV strike on Pavlograd Chemical Plant (producing components for "Grom-2" and solid fuel for Western systems), hitting two workshops and a railway station ("Pavlograd-1"), paralyzing logistics.
      • Mykolaiv: UAV attack on Mykolaiv Aircraft Repair Plant, destroying hangars, a "duty aircraft" (likely An-2M with fire correction equipment), and half the runway.
    • Tactical Aviation Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity on northern and eastern directions, posing a threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. They also report renewed launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk Oblast and towards Sumy Oblast.
    • Reconnaissance UAVs: Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian reconnaissance UAVs active in southeastern Cherkasy and Poltava Oblasts, with counter-measures engaged. Another reconnaissance UAV is reported from Crimea towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense: Ukrainian sources claim "minus" on two ballistic missiles targeting Kropyvnytskyi, implying successful interception.
  • Ukrainian Drone Attacks: Ukrainian FPV drone units ("Apachi" via STERNENKO) showcase successful strikes against a variety of Russian targets, including destroyed structures/dugouts, camouflaged armored vehicles, and individual personnel in open terrain, demonstrating precision and maneuverability. Ukrainian "Ronin" unit claims destruction of an enemy anti-drone jamming system ("Gyurza"), a militarized minivan-type vehicle, and a building/shelter using FPV drones.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Assets: An image shows a Ukrainian military aircraft (likely a Soviet-era fighter jet like MiG-29 or Su-27) with a prominent Ukrainian Trident, partially obscuring an older red star marking, indicating the continued operational readiness of legacy airframes. A 21-year-old female pilot from the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, "Anaconda," is highlighted as the only female pilot in her drone unit, showcasing advanced fixed-wing reconnaissance drones.
  • North Korean Destroyer Accident: CyberBoroshno and The Guardian report a "serious accident" during the launch of a new 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer in Chongjin on May 22, causing it to lose balance and be damaged, infuriating Kim Jong Un.
  • Naval Intelligence: A French naval intelligence gathering ship, FS Dupuy de Lôme (A759), is reportedly docked in Helsinki, Finland, indicating increased NATO intelligence presence in the Baltic Sea region. Russian sources are monitoring this, hinting at counter-intelligence efforts.

IV. Casualties and Losses

  • Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses: Russian MoD claims 3 JDAM aerial bombs and 317 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the past day, along with approximately 1,370 Ukrainian servicemen and 26 combat armored vehicles. They claim the destruction of a Patriot system, a HAWK system, command posts, communications hubs, ammunition depots, and various armored vehicles in their overnight strikes. Russian sources also claim significant losses among Ukrainian forces (specifically from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade) in Maryino and Belovody (Sumy Oblast). Russian sources claim Ukrainian confirmed losses on the Southern Donetsk direction over the past day include 5 units of equipment (including a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer and 4 vehicles), a Starlink terminal, an EW station, a resupply point, and 42 UAVs (3 aircraft-type and 39 copter-type).
  • Ukrainian Claims of Russian Losses: Ukrainian FPV drone units claim successful destruction of armored vehicles and personnel. Ukrainian "Ronin" unit claims destruction of an enemy anti-drone jamming system ("Gyurza"), a militarized minivan-type vehicle, and a building/shelter.
  • Civilian Casualties: Two civilians were injured in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a shop in Pushkarnoye village, Kursk Oblast (Russia). A ballistic missile strike reportedly occurred in Shostka, Sumy Oblast.

V. Humanitarian Situation

  • Rehabilitation Efforts: The opening of a new rehabilitation department with radon baths in Kryvyi Rih, part of a network of 8 such facilities that have treated 4,000 servicemen, highlights Ukraine's focus on supporting wounded personnel.
  • Prisoner Exchange: Active efforts by President Zelenskyy to prepare a large prisoner exchange (1000 for 1000) with Russia.
  • Mariupol Reconstruction (Russian Claim): A Russian military blogger commemorates the 3rd anniversary of the "liberation" of Mariupol, showcasing videos and panoramas of the city and stating the intention to rebuild it. This serves as a significant propaganda effort to highlight a key Russian military success and portray a narrative of reconstruction in occupied territories.

VI. International and Political Developments

  • EU Sanctions: The European Parliament approved duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers (almost 100% over three years) and agricultural products (50%), effective July 1, aimed at effectively stopping trade. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the President of the European Commission for the 17th EU sanctions package against Russia, targeting its "shadow fleet" and military-industrial complex, and discussed the preparation of the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors.
  • US-Russia Summit: TASS reports that the date and location for a Russia-US summit are not yet defined, emphasizing that neither side can afford "mistake or failure."
  • Arctic Tensions: Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide called for increased NATO presence in the Arctic to counter Russia.
  • North Korean Destroyer Accident: A "serious accident" during the launch of a new 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer, causing damage and Kim Jong Un's "furious" reaction, highlights potential internal issues in North Korea's military development. Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state due to its military cooperation with Russia.
  • Russian State Symbol Controversy: Dmitry Peskov addressed controversy regarding the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website, attributing visual differences (rhombuses instead of crosses) to "scaling" issues, reaffirming the emblem's unified design. A Russian military blogger questioned the appearance of the Russian coat of arms on kremlin.ru, suggesting the crosses on the eagles' crowns were replaced with "shy rhombuses," linking this to claims of not abandoning Orthodox believers in Ukraine.
  • US Aid Analysis: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the US will conduct a thorough analysis of all aid provided to Ukraine and address any instances of "illegal appropriation or manipulation."
  • Finland to Supply Ammunition: Finland will supply Ukraine with €90 million worth of 155mm heavy ammunition, using proceeds from frozen Russian assets through the European Peace Facility.
  • Internal Russian Politics: The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a district head due to "unacceptable" statements made by her daughter regarding the "Special Military Operation," indicating efforts to control internal narratives and loyalty.
  • Germany on Negotiations: German Chancellor Merz states "no illusions" about a quick resolution, suggesting ceasefire talks could drag on for months.
  • Corruption in Motor Sich: A Ukrainian court arrested assets worth 500 million hryvnia belonging to the son of the ex-president of Motor Sich, suspected of money laundering from stolen company assets, including helicopter assembly workshops and a grinding equipment factory. This indicates Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts.
  • UK Influence in Central Asia: A Russian military blogger discusses alleged increased British interest in Tajikistan, focusing on "soft influence" through parliamentary diplomacy and local elites, potentially signaling competition for influence in Russia's traditional sphere of interest.
  • Russian Legal Actions: A Russian court sentenced a lawyer from Vorkuta to 15 years for "calls to extremism" and "justification of terrorism," citing Telegram comments ("Death to Putin's orcs," "Glory to RDK") and a message to his son asking if he wanted to join RDK.
  • Medvedev's Stance: Dmitry Medvedev stated that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face a path to unconditional surrender, reiterating a maximalist Russian position.
  • Ukrainian Communications Conference: Ukrainian Armed Forces representatives participated in the annual Public Communications Conference of the Royal Netherlands Navy, discussing information challenges during the war and countering Russian propaganda, highlighting Ukraine's focus on strategic communication.
  • Russian Charity Regulation: A proposed initiative in the Russian State Duma suggests banning charitable collections on personal bank cards, potentially impacting volunteer networks, including those supporting the conflict.

VII. Internal Russian Issues

  • Domestic Drone Activity: Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports (Domodedovo, Zhukovsky) due to drone activity, with Sheremetyevo resuming normal operations. Russia claims 63 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Moscow Oblast between May 20-22. Overall, 485 (Russian MoD) or 182 (Archangel of Spetsnaz) drones were claimed shot down over various Russian regions during the period.
  • Internet Restrictions: Mobile internet restricted in Ivanovo and Oryol Oblasts for "security purposes" due to drone attacks.
  • Dissent and Suppression: A 23-year-old student in Mari El was allegedly beaten and faces criminal charges for anti-war graffiti, highlighting suppression of dissent. A lawyer from Vorkuta was sentenced to 15 years for "calls to extremism" and "justification of terrorism," citing Telegram comments.
  • Corruption Allegations: A report from "Sever.Realii" alleges that former Defense Minister Shoigu's family and associates (including billionaire Andrey Bokarev's family) continue to profit from Ministry of Defense contracts despite his dismissal, with sanctions imposed on Bokarev by the US and UK for ties to Shoigu and alleged organized crime links. An ex-deputy governor of Krasnodar Krai was detained on corruption suspicion.
  • Migrant Control: "Basurin about the Main" discusses the need for "21st-century technologies" (geolocation, biometrics, digital accounting) for migrant control, framing it as a "forced technological response" and a "global trend," reflecting tightening internal security measures. The Head of the Investigative Committee reported a significant increase in crimes by foreign citizens in Q1 2025 and proposed mandatory biometric registration. Russian law enforcement is reportedly identifying and mobilizing migrants who have received Russian citizenship but have not registered for military service, with 20,000 reportedly already at the front.
  • Internal Accidents: A Russian servicemember allegedly stole a car while intoxicated and struck two schoolgirls in Prokopyevsk, fleeing his unit prior to the incident, highlighting potential internal discipline issues.
  • Symbolic Issues: A dog tag with Nazi-era German imperial eagle/swastika and "GOTT MIT UNS" on one side, and a Russian name and blood type on the other, was displayed by a Russian military blogger, attempting to link the enemy to Nazism, despite the contradictory name.
  • IQ Test Disinformation: Russian bot accounts are reportedly manipulating international online IQ test results to intentionally lower Ukraine's average IQ, part of a Russian propaganda effort to discredit Ukrainians.
  • Rubel Depreciation Propaganda: "Alex Parker Returns" shares a chart showing Rubel depreciation with the caption "Russia is rising from its knees," indicating a disconnect between official narrative and economic reality.
  • Family Discord: The father of Russian showman Alexander Revva, in Donetsk, publicly condemned his son as a "traitor to the Motherland" for not visiting Donbas and his perceived anti-war stance, contributing to a narrative of loyalty and discrediting perceived dissent.
  • Chechen Influence: A Russian military blogger expressed concerns about the influence of a Muslim religious organization (ДУМ) in Russia, alleging links to "Russophobia," "replacement migration," attributes of "radicals," and foreign influence, including alleged interactions with British special services.

VIII. Ukrainian Force Composition and Training

  • Military Education Expansion: The General Staff of Ukraine announced a 20% increase in state orders for military specialist training in 2025 compared to 2024 (a twofold increase since the war began) and new training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists for wounded service members at the National University of Defense of Ukraine.
  • Female Drone Pilot: A 21-year-old female pilot from the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, "Anaconda," is highlighted as the only female pilot in her drone unit, showcasing advanced fixed-wing reconnaissance drones and contributions of women in combat roles.
  • Internal Resistance to Mobilization: A report from "Lviv Regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center" details a severe assault on a veteran and current military official involved in mobilization efforts by a group of eight civilians in Novyi Rozdil, resulting in a broken rib and facial hematomas. This highlights internal resistance to mobilization and the challenges faced by TCC personnel.
  • Demining Efforts: Ukrainian sappers from the 47th Brigade are conducting humanitarian demining in Kharkiv Oblast, clearing about 1 hectare per day, highlighting the slow but critical work of removing various explosive ordnance, including reactive, artillery, and cluster munitions.
  • FPV Drone Units: Ukrainian FPV drone units are showcasing successful strikes against a variety of Russian targets, demonstrating precision and maneuverability. The "Ronin" unit (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade) claims successful destruction of an enemy anti-drone jamming system, a military vehicle, and a building/shelter.
  • Use of Robotic Systems: The 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" reportedly conducted a successful medical evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic platform over a distance of 12 kilometers, highlighting the increasing use of robotic systems in battlefield support.

IX. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

  • Russian Internet Restrictions: Mobile internet was restricted in Ivanovo and Oryol Oblasts for "security purposes" due to drone attacks, indicating a response to perceived cyber or information threats.
  • IQ Test Manipulation: Russian bot accounts are reportedly manipulating international online IQ test results for Ukraine, demonstrating a targeted information warfare tactic to discredit the Ukrainian population.
  • Russian Claims of Ukrainian Command and Control Issues: A Russian military blogger claims that Ukrainian command is struggling to adapt to the rapidly changing situation on the Southern Donetsk front, leading to Ukrainian units getting captured and a lack of awareness about the actual front line. This narrative aims to portray the Ukrainian military as disorganized and ineffective.

X. War Crimes Allegations

  • CNN reports that radio intercepts of Russian occupiers indicate orders to kill Ukrainian military personnel taken prisoner, with drone footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast supporting claims of probable executions. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating.
  • A Russian "confession video" shows a captured Ukrainian identified as Viktor Anatolyevich Varnava admitting to shelling civilian settlements in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, including a children's art school, with an 82mm mortar. This is used by Russia to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian war crimes and justify its actions.

XI. Strategic Narratives

  • Russian "Denazification" Narrative: The dog tag incident, despite its contradictions, is part of Russia's continued "denazification" narrative to justify its military actions.
  • Internal Russian Dissent: Nikita Mikhalkov's controversial statement about bringing a "KGB officer" to power being a "strategic and global mistake" indicates potential underlying anxiety or critical perspectives within some Russian elite segments.
  • Ukrainian Discreditation: The alleged manipulation of IQ test results by Russian bots to lower Ukraine's score is a clear information warfare tactic to discredit the Ukrainian population.
  • Russian Maritime Blockade: The Russian Ministry of Defense published an infographic claiming 488 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian territories between May 20-22, emphasizing the scale of Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia and asserting the effectiveness of Russian air defense. This is used to justify the need for ongoing defense and potentially to claim "damages" in future negotiations.
  • Mariupol Liberation: Russian sources actively commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," aiming to highlight a key Russian military success and normalize Russian control over occupied territories.
Previous (2025-05-22 12:23:26Z)

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