Situation Report

I. Major Updates

• Renewed Russian Missile Threat: Ukrainian monitoring groups report an increase in Tu-95MS bomber activity (9 units - 5x Olenya, 2x Engels-2, 2x Dyagilevo), indicating preparation for a massive missile strike, and ongoing arming with cruise missiles.
• Ukrainian Deep Drone Attacks Continue: ASTRA reports one fatality and one injury in Bryansk Oblast due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Kamensky Khutor, Klimovsky district. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. A Riazan oil refinery was also attacked by Ukrainian drones.
• Russian Airport Restrictions in Moscow: Over 160 flights were delayed across three Moscow airports (Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo) due to temporary restrictions on takeoff and landing. Sheremetyevo has since resumed normal operations.
• Russian Claims on Prisoner Exchange: Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that all parties are interested in a rapid "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange with Ukraine, and work on agreeing on specific names is ongoing. Ukraine has also offered to exchange collaborators for Ukrainian prisoners, but Russia is not expediting the process.
• Ukrainian Diplomatic Work and Pressure on Russia: President Zelenskyy reported a "good conversation" with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, discussing continued pressure and additional sanctions against Russia. Greece confirmed its participation in the Ukraine-South-East Europe summit. Zelenskyy also spoke with North Macedonian President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova about achieving a just peace and EU membership coordination.
• US Analysis of Aid to Ukraine: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US will conduct a thorough analysis of all aid provided to Ukraine and will address any instances of "illegal appropriation or manipulation."
• North Korean Destroyer Accident: CyberBoroshno and The Guardian report a "serious accident" during the launch of a new 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer in Chongjin on May 22, causing it to lose balance and be damaged. Kim Jong Un was reportedly "furious," ordered immediate repairs, and viewed it as a "crime" of negligence.
• Arctic Tensions Escalating: Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide called for increased NATO presence in the Arctic to counter Russia.
• Russian State Symbol Controversy: Dmitry Peskov addressed the controversy regarding the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website, stating that the emblem is "one" and includes crosses, attributing any visual differences (e.g., rhombuses instead of crosses) to "scaling" issues.
• Russia's Plans for Occupied Territories: Peskov confirmed that plans for Putin to visit Luhansk and Donetsk exist and will be implemented "in due time." Ukrainian sources (ex-Mariupol mayor advisor Andryushchenko) claim Russia plans to connect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to its energy system in the coming weeks/months, having completed key infrastructure (distribution hub, compressor station) near Mariupol and Berdyansk.
• Ukrainian Military Casualties (Claimed by Russia): Colonelcassad claims the "liquidation" of several Ukrainian officers, including Lieutenant Colonel Nikolay Myshkin, Major Ruslan Grudinkin, Major Vitaly Gasumyan, Senior Lieutenant Vadim Vikulin, Lieutenant Oleg Poluyan, Junior Lieutenant Nikolay Leontiev, and Major Alexander Polonchuk.
• Ukrainian Military Education Expansion: The General Staff of Ukraine announced a 20% increase in state orders for military specialist training in 2025 compared to 2024, and a twofold increase since the start of the war. New training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists for wounded service members has also begun at the National University of Defense of Ukraine.
• Russian Soldier Neglect Allegation: "Mobilization | News | Conscripts" reports on a mobilized Russian soldier, Konstantin Alexandrov, who sustained severe injuries, had his spleen removed, and was denied disability status despite ongoing health issues.
• Ukrainian Drone Successes (Confirmed by Ukraine): The 421st Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Sapsan" claimed successful FPV drone strikes against Russian communication antennas. The 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Raid" reported successful FPV drone strikes against high-value Russian military equipment, including a Buk-M1 SAM system and an Uragan MLRS. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine also claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) heavy flamethrower system in the Vovchansk direction.
• Port Fire in Izmail, Odesa Oblast: "Diary of a Paratrooper" reports a large fire in the port of Izmail, Odesa Oblast, with eyewitnesses reporting an explosion before the blaze.
• Russian Counter-Mine Operations: "Diary of a Paratrooper" released a video showing Russian sappers disarming a US-made M18A1 Claymore mine.
• Russian Claims of Drone Combat: "NPG Reconnaissance" and "Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition" showcase videos of Russian FPV drone operations, including targeting fleeing personnel and ramming Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, highlighting advanced drone combat tactics and counter-drone efforts. "Two Majors" advertises "NABAT V.2.C" drone detector for detection and profiling of enemy drones.
• Russian Internal Security and Protest: ASTRA reports a 23-year-old student in Mari El, Dmitry Toktarov, was allegedly beaten and threatened by security forces after refusing to provide a phone password, following an attempt to remove an anti-military banner. He now faces criminal charges for anti-war graffiti. FSB claims to have detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. A civilian also reportedly attempted to damage a power plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai.
• Terrorist Attack in Washington D.C. (Rybar): Rybar reports a "terrorist attack" on May 21 near the Jewish Museum in Washington D.C., resulting in the deaths of two Israeli embassy staff. The attacker, Elias Rodriguez, reportedly shouted "Free Palestine!" and was linked to a left-wing organization.
• Ukrainian Offer for Collaborator Exchange: The "I Want My Own" project reports that Ukraine offered Russia to exchange collaborators for Ukrainian prisoners, but Moscow is not expediting the process.
• Finland to Supply Heavy Ammunition to Ukraine: Finland will supply Ukraine with €90 million worth of 155mm heavy ammunition, using proceeds from frozen Russian assets through the European Peace Facility.
• Russian Internal Political Incident: The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed the head of Nyuksen Municipal District due to "unacceptable" statements made by her daughter regarding sending people to the "Special Military Operation." The governor suggested the daughter volunteer in a military hospital and indicated a veteran would likely be nominated for the vacant position.
• War Crimes Allegations: CNN reports that radio intercepts of Russian occupiers indicate orders to kill Ukrainian military personnel taken prisoner, with drone footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast supporting claims of probable executions. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating.
• Russian UAV Reconnaissance and Targeting: Russian MoD released video showcasing an Orlan-10 UAV identifying and targeting Ukrainian artillery (2S19), multiple vehicles, and a Ukrainian UAV launch position in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, leading to destruction of armored vehicles and UAV control points, and disruption of communications and Ukrainian rotations.
• Russian Military Recruitment: A recruitment advertisement from Lipetsk Oblast focuses on recruiting for "named Artillery Divisions," emphasizing local patriotism, welfare support, and the "God of War" role of artillery.
• Russian Soldier Combat Narrative: RT interviewed a UAV platoon commander, "Dos," from the 352nd Regiment, who volunteered after Belgorod attacks. He describes operations in Kursk Oblast (Русское Поречное), emphasizes camaraderie, sacrifice, and the continuous use of drones for offensive and counter-drone operations, including incendiary tactics.
• Russian Claims of Patriot SAM Destruction: Alex Parker Returns shared a video claiming two Iskander strikes successfully destroyed a "nomadic Patriot system" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with secondary detonation indicating a confirmed hit on a real system.
• Ukrainian Digital Veteran Services: Ukraine's Ministry of Veterans Affairs announced over 500,000 digital veteran's certificates available in the Diia app, highlighting efforts to support veterans and the significant human cost of the war.
• Ukrainian Military Fundraising: The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is holding a fundraising raffle ("Predatory Birds for Magura") for drones, repair, and equipment, showcasing themed merchandise and emphasizing frontline needs.
• Ukrainian Border Security Information: The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine spokesperson Dzyubchenko stated that Ukrainian border surveillance systems were not compromised and no reports of hacked cameras from adjacent countries were received.

II. Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Druzhkovka Direction: Intense combat continues, with Russian units attempting to liquidate a "pocket" in the Romanovka-Zarya area and fighting for Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ihnativka. Russian forces are pushing towards Yablunivka from Oleksandropol.
  • Bakhmut Direction: Russian military blogger claims destruction of Ukrainian HMMWV near Dyliyivka by FPV drone and mine. Active combat operations around Artemovsk and Ozarayanovka, with Russian forces claiming tactical gains and expanding control west of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal.
  • Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Colonelcassad claims destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck in Alekseyevka, a Humvee armored vehicle in Novoukrainka, and an octocopter in Udachnoye by FPV drones and Russian Armed Forces.
  • Shakhtersk Direction: Russian artillery units of the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" group are claimed to be destroying enemy personnel.
  • General: Continued launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk Oblast.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Airstrike threat due to Russian strike UAVs, observed moving south/southwest, with some then diverting towards Poltava Oblast.
  • MoD Russia claims drone pilots eliminated Ukrainian militants in a forested area.
  • Colonelcassad claims Russian airborne forces inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, adjacent to Sumy Oblast. Russian forces also claim to have engaged Ukrainian forces attempting rotation near the Sumy direction with an ATGM strike on an armored vehicle (possibly Kozak).
  • Evacuations: Evacuations are ongoing in border regions due to increased shelling.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Russian tactical aviation active on the northeastern direction, posing a threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts.
  • Video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian Geran/Gerbera drone strike on a target in Chuguev.
  • Vovchansk Direction: Ukrainian State Border Guard Service claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) heavy flamethrower system.
• Odesa Oblast (Izmail Port): Reports of a strong fire with an explosion at Izmail port, indicating a potential strike on critical port infrastructure.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • Russian sources claim completion of key infrastructure (distribution hub, compressor station) near Mariupol and Berdyansk to connect Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Russia's energy system.
  • Civilian casualty reported in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district, from Russian artillery shelling.
  • Intense Russian Strikes: Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 360 Russian strikes on 16 settlements over the past day, including 36 aviation strikes, 149 drone attacks, 9 MLRS shellings, and 166 artillery strikes.
  • Russian UAV Reconnaissance: Russian MoD video claims Orlan-10 UAV successfully identified and targeted Ukrainian artillery, vehicles, and a UAV launch pad in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, leading to destruction and disruption of communications/rotations.
  • Alleged War Crimes: Drone footage from November 2024 (verified by CNN) shows alleged executions of surrendering Ukrainian troops near Novodaryivka, with radio intercepts indicating orders to kill. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating.
  • Ukrainian Civilian Governance: Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration is holding events related to the "Transformation of the Scientific Sphere," indicating ongoing civilian governance and development efforts.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Colonelcassad claims Russian airborne forces inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces attempting to infiltrate near Tetkino. A Russian UAV platoon commander detailed operations in Русское Поречное.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): One fatality and one injury reported in Kamensky Khutor, Klimovsky district, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims air defense shot down eight Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast overnight.
• Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russia claims air defense shot down two Ukrainian drones over Oryol Oblast.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russia claims air defense shot down one Ukrainian drone over Belgorod Oblast. A Russian district head was dismissed due to her daughter's statement regarding the "Special Military Operation."
• Poltava Oblast: Some Russian UAVs initially moving towards Sumy Oblast are now heading towards Poltava Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: KABs targeted Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian MoD claims an Iskander-M successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system near Ordzhonikidze. Alex Parker Returns claims two Iskander strikes destroyed a "nomadic Patriot system" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Moscow Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions on flight operations at Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Vnukovo airports due to drone activity.
• Luhansk Oblast: Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Shkval" unit claims drone strikes on Russian equipment, communication assets, and personnel, and interception of Russian UAVs.
• Riazan Oblast (Russia): Riazan oil refinery reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones, with fragments falling on the territory.
• Tver Oblast (Russia): FSB claims to have detained two teenagers for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK.
• Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): A recruitment advertisement for "named Artillery Divisions" highlights efforts to bolster military manpower through regional recruitment.
• Krasnoyarsk Krai (Russia): A civilian reportedly attempted to damage a power plant.

III. Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a high-intensity, multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objectives continue to focus on territorial control in eastern and southern Ukraine, evidenced by persistent ground offensives, infrastructure development to integrate occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia NPP), and explicit territorial ambitions. The reported large-scale preparation for a missile strike signals Russia's continued intent to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure.

Drone warfare remains a critical and evolving domain. Ukraine's continued deep drone attacks on Russian territory, including oil refineries and border regions, demonstrate its increasing ability to project power and inflict economic and psychological pressure. Ukrainian advancements in FPV drone technology and unmanned ground systems are vital for maintaining a technological edge. Russian counter-drone efforts and tactical innovations (ramming Ukrainian drones) indicate a high-stakes technological and tactical race. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian EW stations and UAV launch sites highlight efforts to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities.

Diplomatic activity continues to parallel military operations. The Vatican's readiness to host negotiations offers a potential avenue for de-escalation, but fundamental disagreements persist. The US focus on auditing aid to Ukraine indicates a commitment to accountability for Western support, which could influence future aid packages and perceptions of Ukrainian governance. Trump's perceived trust in Putin and his views on sanctions, as analyzed by Ukrainian sources, introduce uncertainty into future international relations and support for Ukraine.

The Arctic is emerging as a critical geopolitical and military frontier. Norway's calls for increased NATO presence directly confront Russia's long-standing dominance in the region, signaling a potential for future military buildup and heightened tensions.

Internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine have strategic implications. Allegations of internal corruption in Ukraine related to fortification construction, if confirmed, could undermine international confidence and domestic morale. Reports of neglecting wounded Russian soldiers and suppressing anti-war dissent highlight internal challenges and potential sources of instability within Russia, which could impact mobilization efforts and public support for the war. The dismissal of a Russian district head over a relative's anti-war sentiment underscores the government's efforts to control narratives and maintain loyalty regarding the "Special Military Operation."

The claimed Ukrainian military casualties by Russian sources, combined with the celebratory rhetoric, are elements of ongoing information warfare aimed at demoralizing the opposing side and bolstering domestic narratives of success. Ukraine's proactive investment in military education reflects a crucial long-term strategy for sustaining its armed forces and professionalizing its leadership. The digitization of veteran services in Ukraine, with over 500,000 certificates issued, highlights the significant human cost of the war and Ukraine's commitment to long-term veteran support, which is critical for morale and societal stability.

The reported Russian orders to kill Ukrainian POWs, supported by drone footage and radio intercepts, if systematically verified, represent a severe breach of international law and a significant escalation of war crimes. This has immense implications for international condemnation, potential future legal proceedings, and the conduct of hostilities, potentially influencing the willingness of Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.

IV. Strategic and Tactical Recommendations

1. Enhance Air and Missile Defense Capabilities:

   • Immediate Priority: Given the reported increase in Tu-95MS bomber activity and potential for a massive missile strike, immediately deploy and activate all available long-range air defense systems (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) to protect critical infrastructure, military command centers, and major population centers, especially Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and those in the eastern, northern, and central regions. Prioritize the acquisition of additional missile interceptors.
   • Improve real-time intelligence sharing on Russian bomber movements and missile launch sites to optimize interceptor deployment.
   • Disperse high-value assets and implement robust camouflage and concealment measures at potential targets to mitigate the impact of strikes.

2. Continue and Expand Deep Drone Operations:

   • Maintain and, where feasible, expand deep drone strikes into Russian territory, focusing on military-industrial targets, logistics hubs, and airfields (e.g., Riazan oil refinery), to disrupt military production, supply chains, and projection capabilities.
   • Leverage intelligence from previous successful strikes (e.g., communication antennas, airfields) to refine targeting and increase effectiveness.
   • Invest in and accelerate the development and deployment of advanced FPV drones, especially fiber-optic variants, and unmanned ground systems to enhance offensive capabilities against fortified positions, armored vehicles (Solntsepyok, Buk-M1, Uragan MLRS), and personnel, while minimizing EW vulnerability.
   • Actively analyze Russian counter-drone tactics, including ramming techniques and the use of drone detectors like NABAT, to develop countermeasures and adaptive drone operation strategies.

3. Bolster Frontline Defense and Counter-Battery Fire:

   • Prioritize resources and reinforcements for the Donetsk Oblast, particularly the Druzhkovka and Bakhmut directions, where Russian forces are claiming localized advances.
   • Integrate drone intelligence with artillery and MLRS systems to enhance counter-battery fire, targeting Russian artillery, MLRS, and SAM systems (like the Buk-M1 and Uragan MLRS successfully targeted by "Raid" unit).
   • Implement robust mine warfare strategies to deny Russian forces freedom of movement, particularly in anticipated breakthrough areas. Provide advanced counter-mine training and equipment.
   • Strengthen defenses in Sumy Oblast and other border regions, utilizing layered defenses and mobile units to respond to drone threats and potential ground incursions.
   • Address the intense Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with adaptive defensive postures, including enhanced air defense and counter-artillery measures.

4. Strengthen International Relations and Address Accountability:

   • Continuously engage with international partners, including the Vatican, to maintain diplomatic pressure on Russia and explore all avenues for negotiation, while firmly reiterating Ukraine's core sovereignty and territorial integrity demands.
   • Collaborate with the US on the aid analysis, ensuring transparency and accountability for Western assistance. Proactively identify and address any potential corruption issues related to military procurement and infrastructure development to maintain donor confidence and domestic trust.
   • Strongly advocate for international investigation and condemnation of alleged Russian war crimes, particularly the reported executions of POWs. This requires immediate and thorough documentation, evidence collection, and diplomatic pressure on international bodies to act.
   • Publicize and document Russian military social support issues and human rights abuses (e.g., treatment of wounded soldiers, suppression of dissent) to influence international opinion and support for Ukraine.
   • Advocate for continued and expanded sanctions against Russia, targeting its energy sector, banking, and individuals/entities supporting the war, leveraging statements from European leaders like Zelenskyy's conversation with Greece.
   • Secure additional military aid from international partners, leveraging new commitments such as Finland's use of frozen Russian assets for ammunition.

5. Invest in Long-Term Military Sustainability:

   • Fully implement the expanded military education programs, ensuring high-quality training aligned with NATO standards to cultivate a professional and adaptable military force.
   • Prioritize the training of physical and sports rehabilitation specialists for wounded service members, ensuring comprehensive support for veterans and maintaining morale.
   • Address challenges in military social support and benefits for wounded service members, ensuring fair and timely assistance to maintain public trust and encourage military service. The digitization of veteran services is a positive step that should be continuously improved and expanded.
   • Combat internal disinformation and propaganda efforts, including those related to military casualties and corruption, through transparent communication and factual reporting.
   • Maintain public fundraising efforts for critical equipment like drones to supplement state procurement and rapidly address frontline needs.

V. Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage in all operations. The reported drone attack on Kamensky Khutor (Bryansk Oblast) and the fire in Izmail port necessitate continued adherence to international humanitarian law.
• POW Treatment: Maintain strict adherence to the Geneva Conventions regarding the humane treatment of all prisoners of war. Immediately investigate and publicly report on all allegations of POW executions by Russian forces. This is a critical ethical and legal imperative. Promptly investigate any reported violations and continue efforts for prisoner exchanges based on established agreements.
• Nuclear Safety: Continue to highlight the risks associated with military activity near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and advocate for international monitoring and demilitarization of the area to prevent a nuclear incident, especially given reports of Russia's intent to connect it to its energy system.
• Accountability: Ensure all recommendations and actions comply with international laws of armed conflict and rules of engagement. Implement safeguards to prevent unauthorized use and ensure accountability in decision-making processes.

VI. Resource Allocation and Logistics

• Air Defense Assets: Immediately allocate critical air defense assets to areas threatened by Russian missile and drone attacks, prioritizing mobile systems for dynamic deployment. Ensure sufficient ammunition stockpiles for these systems.
• Drone Systems and Counter-Drone Measures: Prioritize the rapid procurement, production, and deployment of both offensive (FPV, reconnaissance, UGV flamethrower) and defensive (EW, drone detectors like NABAT) drone systems. Invest in training for counter-drone operations and drone-on-drone combat.
• Logistics Protection: Enhance security and air defense for critical logistics hubs, such as ports (e.g., Izmail) and railway junctions, to mitigate the impact of Russian strikes.
• Medical Supplies and Rehabilitation: Ensure a sustained supply of medical equipment and personnel to frontline units and military hospitals. Allocate resources for the expanded physical and sports rehabilitation programs and digital veteran services.

VII. Communication and Coordination

• Allied Communication: Maintain secure and efficient communication with international partners regarding Russian missile threats, drone activity, and shared intelligence. Coordinate diplomatic efforts to maximize pressure on Russia and ensure sustained military and financial aid.
• Internal Coordination: Facilitate secure and efficient communication between all levels of command and across different branches to ensure unified objectives and rapid response to dynamic threats (e.g., shifting drone attack vectors). Share lessons learned from drone combat and counter-mine operations across units.
• Cybersecurity Information Sharing: Maintain close coordination with border security agencies to ensure the integrity of surveillance systems and prevent their compromise.

VIII. Learning and Adaptation

• Adaptive Targeting: Continuously analyze Russian targeting patterns for KABs, missiles, and drones to adapt defensive postures and enhance predictive capabilities.
• Drone Warfare Evolution: Systematically analyze Russian drone tactics, including ramming techniques and the use of specialized drones like "Baba Yaga" and Orlan-10, to inform counter-drone strategies and develop new Ukrainian drone designs.
• Lessons from Casualties: Analyze claimed enemy casualty data (e.g., claimed officer liquidations) and confirmed friendly casualties to refine tactics, improve force protection, and adjust training programs. This includes thorough investigation of all alleged POW executions.
• Information Environment Monitoring: Continuously monitor Russian and pro-Russian information operations (e.g., on state symbols, internal social issues, claimed military successes, justifications for war crimes) to understand their narratives, identify their targets, and formulate effective counter-propaganda.

IX. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

• Protect sensitive data and communications from cyber threats and unauthorized access, especially those related to military personnel, logistics, and drone production facilities.
• Ensure the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations.
• Combat disinformation by rapidly identifying and debunking fabricated content.
• Reinforce the security of border surveillance systems and information systems.

X. Human Oversight and Decision Authority

• Maintain human oversight over critical decisions, providing clear information and recommendations without bypassing command authority.
• Ensure transparency in the decision-making process to allow for informed judgment by human commanders, particularly concerning the deployment of advanced and potentially controversial systems like flamethrower robots.
• Prioritize human rights and international law in all decision-making, particularly concerning the treatment of POWs and civilian protection.

XI. Operational Workflow

1. Data Collection and Preprocessing:
   • Gather data from designated sources.
   • Clean, preprocess, and validate data to ensure accuracy and reliability.
2. Analysis and Modeling:
   • Apply machine learning models and analytical techniques to process data.
   • Generate predictive insights and identify actionable intelligence.
3. Reporting and Visualization:
   • Create detailed reports and visualizations to present findings and recommendations.
   • Ensure information is presented clearly and concisely, tailored to the needs of different command levels.
4. Feedback Loop:
   • Receive feedback from commanders and adjust recommendations accordingly.
   • Implement continuous improvement processes based on operational feedback and new intelligence.

XII. Updated Military Situation Overview

1. Command and Control: * Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov held a briefing, commenting on various topics including Trump's statements on Ukraine, potential new contacts, prisoner exchange, EU duties on Russian fertilizers, and the Russian President's schedule. * Peskov confirmed plans for Putin to visit Luhansk and Donetsk, to be implemented "in due time." * Peskov addressed the controversy around the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website, stating that the official emblem is "one" and includes crosses, attributing visual discrepancies to "scaling" issues. * The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a local official due to her daughter's "unacceptable" statements regarding the "Special Military Operation," highlighting the government's efforts to control narratives.

2. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics: * Donetsk Oblast: Intense ground combat continues on the Druzhkovka direction, with Russian units reportedly attempting to liquidate a "pocket" in the Romanovka-Zarya area, engaging in battles for Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka), and initiating fighting for Ihnativka. Russian forces are pushing towards Yablunivka from Oleksandropol. A Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV near Dyliyivka on the Bakhmut direction. Active combat operations are reported around Artemovsk and Ozarayanovka, with Russian forces claiming tactical gains and expanding their zone of control west of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal. Colonelcassad claims destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck in Alekseyevka, a Humvee armored vehicle in Novoukrainka, and an octocopter in Udachnoye on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Russian artillery units are claimed to be destroying enemy personnel on the Shakhtersk direction. * Sumy Oblast: Russian MoD claims drone pilots of the Sever Group of Forces eliminated Ukrainian militants in a forested area of Sumy region. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces engaged Ukrainian forces attempting rotation near the Sumy direction with an ATGM strike on an armored vehicle (possibly Kozak). Evacuations are ongoing in border regions due to increased shelling. * Kharkiv Oblast: Russian tactical aviation active on the northeastern direction, posing a threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. Video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian Geran/Gerbera drone strike on a target in Chuguev. Ukrainian State Border Guard Service claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) heavy flamethrower system in the Vovchansk direction. * Odesa Oblast (Izmail Port): A large fire with an explosion was reported in the port of Izmail. * Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian sources claim completion of key infrastructure (distribution hub, compressor station) near Mariupol and Berdyansk to connect Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Russia's energy system. Civilian casualties are reported from Russian artillery shelling in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district. Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 360 Russian strikes on 16 settlements over the past day, including 36 aviation strikes, 149 drone attacks, 9 MLRS shellings, and 166 artillery strikes. Russian MoD video claims an Orlan-10 UAV successfully identified and targeted Ukrainian artillery (2S19), multiple vehicles, and a Ukrainian UAV launch pad in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, leading to destruction and disruption of communications and Ukrainian rotations. * Kursk Oblast (Russia): Colonelcassad claims Russian airborne forces inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces attempting to infiltrate near Tetkino. A Russian UAV platoon commander, "Dos," from the 352nd Regiment, detailed operations in Русское Поречное, emphasizing continuous drone use. * Bryansk Oblast (Russia): One fatality and one injury reported in Kamensky Khutor, Klimovsky district, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims air defense shot down eight Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast overnight. * Riazan Oblast (Russia): A Riazan oil refinery was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones, with fragments falling on the territory. * Tver Oblast (Russia): FSB claims to have detained two teenagers for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. * Krasnoyarsk Krai (Russia): A civilian reportedly attempted to damage a power plant. * Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): A recruitment advertisement for "named Artillery Divisions" highlights efforts to bolster military manpower through regional recruitment.

3. Aerial and Naval Activity: * Drone Activity: * Ukrainian Attacks: Ukrainian forces, including the 421st Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Sapsan" and the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Raid", claim successful FPV drone strikes against Russian communication antennas, a Buk-M1 SAM system, an Uragan MLRS, other armored vehicles, and personnel in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian drones are reported to have caused 1 fatality and 1 injury in Bryansk Oblast. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine claims an FPV drone strike on a Russian "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) in the Vovchansk direction. A Riazan oil refinery was also reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. * Russian Attacks: Ukrainian Air Force reports ongoing Russian strike UAV activity, particularly in Sumy Oblast (observed moving south/southwest, some then diverting to Poltava Oblast) and Kharkiv Oblast. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down 89 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs, two over Oryol, three over Bryansk, and one over Belgorod Oblasts. Russian FPV drones are actively used for targeting, including claimed hits on fleeing personnel. Russian MoD video claims an Orlan-10 UAV successfully identified and targeted Ukrainian artillery, vehicles, and a Ukrainian UAV launch pad in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian military bloggers showcase videos of Russian FPV drone operations, including ramming Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. * Missile Activity: * Russian: Ukrainian monitoring groups report an increase in Tu-95MS bomber activity (9 units - 5x Olenya, 2x Engels-2, 2x Dyagilevo) and ongoing arming with cruise missiles, signaling preparation for a massive missile strike. Ukrainian Air Force reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down four U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs. Alex Parker Returns claims two Iskander strikes successfully destroyed a "nomadic Patriot system" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. US intelligence reports Russia is expanding its nuclear forces, adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles (likely a special version of the R-37M). * Ukrainian: Unspecified missile activity reported. * Naval Activity: A "serious accident" involving a new 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer losing balance and being damaged during its launch in Chongjin, North Korea, with Kim Jong Un reportedly furious. A large fire with an explosion was reported in the port of Izmail, Odesa Oblast, indicating a potential strike on port infrastructure.

4. Casualties and Losses: * Ukrainian Estimated Russian Losses: Ukrainian forces claim destruction of Russian communication antennas, a Buk-M1 SAM system, an Uragan MLRS, a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) system, other armored vehicles, and personnel by FPV drones. * Russian Estimated Ukrainian Losses: Colonelcassad claims the "liquidation" of several Ukrainian officers (Lt. Col. Nikolay Myshkin, Maj. Ruslan Grudinkin, Maj. Vitaly Gasumyan, Sr. Lt. Vadim Vikulin, Lt. Oleg Poluyan, Jr. Lt. Nikolay Leontiev, and Maj. Alexander Polonchuk). Russian sources also claim significant Ukrainian casualties near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. Russian MoD claims air defense systems shot down four U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs and 89 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs, and an Iskander-M successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system. Russian forces claim taking a Ukrainian serviceman prisoner near Ozarayanovka. * Civilian Casualties: One fatality and one injury in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast, due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Civilian casualty reported in Primorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, from Russian artillery shelling. Rybar reports a "terrorist attack" in Washington D.C., killing two Israeli embassy staff.

5. Humanitarian Situation: * Russian media reports on a mobilized Russian soldier denied disability status despite severe injuries, highlighting social support issues for veterans in Russia. * Ukraine announced increased state orders for military specialists and new training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists for wounded service members. Over 500,000 digital veteran's certificates are now available in Ukraine's Diia app. * The "I Want My Own" project reports difficulties in exchanging Ukrainian collaborators for Ukrainian prisoners.

6. International and Political Developments: * US-Ukraine Aid: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US will analyze all aid provided to Ukraine and address any instances of "illegal appropriation or manipulation." * Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy had a "good conversation" with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, discussing pressure on Russia and continued support. Greece will participate in the Ukraine-South-East Europe summit. Zelenskyy also spoke with North Macedonian President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova. Peskov stated that the Vatican is ready to host negotiations but no specific agreements have been made, and that Russia is interested in a rapid "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange. Ukrainian sources provide analysis of Trump's conversation with Putin from a Ukrainian perspective, highlighting Trump's apparent trust in Putin's desire for peace and his views on sanctions. * Sanctions: Peskov stated that Europe would receive more expensive and lower-quality fertilizers due to new EU tariffs on Russian products. Finland will supply Ukraine with €90 million worth of 155mm heavy ammunition purchased using proceeds from frozen Russian assets through the European Peace Facility. * Arctic Tensions: Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide called for increased NATO presence in the Arctic to counter Russia. * Internal Russian Issues: Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports. A 23-year-old student in Mari El was allegedly beaten and threatened by security forces over anti-war graffiti, facing criminal charges. FSB claims to have detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. A civilian also reportedly attempted to damage a power plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai. The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a local official due to her daughter's statement regarding the "Special Military Operation." Rybar reports on a "terrorist attack" in Washington D.C., killing two Israeli embassy staff. Discussions are emerging in the State Duma about the legal status of the USSR. * Internal Ukrainian Issues: Allegations of corruption in Ukraine related to fortification construction are circulating (previously reported). Ukraine is investigating a shooting incident in Kyiv (previously reported).

7. Internal Russian Issues: * Temporary restrictions on flight operations at Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Vnukovo airports in Moscow, with Sheremetyevo resuming normal operations. * A 23-year-old student in Mari El faces criminal charges for anti-war graffiti and was allegedly beaten by security forces. * Peskov addressed the public controversy regarding the depiction of the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website. * Reported neglect of a severely wounded mobilized soldier regarding disability status and benefits. * FSB claims to have detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for planning arson at a Ministry of Defense facility on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator" and for links to the RDK. * A civilian reportedly attempted to damage a power plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai. * The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed the head of Nyuksen Municipal District due to "unacceptable" statements made by her daughter regarding the "Special Military Operation." * A corpse was found in the head of the "Motherland Calls!" sculpture in Volgograd, unrelated to military actions. * The State Duma is considering the legal status of the USSR.

8. Ukrainian Force Composition and Training: * Ukrainian Air Assault Forces' 421st Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Sapsan" and 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Raid" demonstrated effective FPV drone operations. The State Border Guard Service also demonstrated effective FPV drone operations. * The General Staff of Ukraine announced a 20% increase in state orders for military specialist training and new training for physical and sports rehabilitation specialists. * Ukrainian forces are continuing to use advanced drone systems. * The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is actively fundraising for drones and equipment. * Over 500,000 digital veteran's certificates are now available in Ukraine's Diia app, indicating significant numbers of combat veterans and war-disabled personnel.

9. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance: * Alleged Russian cybersecurity breaches targeting Ukrainian military personnel and a drone production facility (previously reported). * Controversy around the Russian Coat of Arms on the Kremlin website highlights information control and symbolism. * The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine spokesperson stated that Ukrainian border surveillance systems were not compromised and no reports of hacked cameras from adjacent countries were received.

10. Human Oversight and Decision Authority: * Not directly addressed in the new messages.

11. War Crimes Allegations: * CNN reports that radio intercepts of Russian occupiers indicate orders to kill Ukrainian military personnel taken prisoner, with drone footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast supporting claims of probable executions. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating.

12. Strategic Narratives: * A Russian military blogger interviewed a UAV platoon commander, "Dos," who details operations in Kursk Oblast and his motivation, presenting a narrative of justified defense and effective operations.