Situation Report

I. Major Updates

• Russian Leadership Change: General Andrey Mordvichev, known for advocating "meat assaults" and commanding forces that destroyed Mariupol, has officially become the commander of the Russian Ground Forces. This signals a likely continuation of high-attrition, direct assault tactics.
• Widespread Ukrainian Deep Drone Attacks: Russian MoD claimed 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions (Moscow region: 35, Kursk: 42, Belgorod: 14, Oryol: 14, Tula: 10, Kaluga: 9, Voronezh: 7, Lipetsk: 3, Smolensk: 3, Bryansk: 1). This indicates persistent and large-scale Ukrainian deep drone activity, causing immediate impact on Russian civilian infrastructure and daily life. Airports in Moscow (Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky) experienced temporary restrictions, with over 160 flights delayed.
• Ukrainian Strategic Air Attack Confirmation: The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launching an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Taganrog, Russia, and 128 "Shahed" and imitator drones from multiple directions in an overnight attack on May 22. Ukrainian air defense reportedly neutralized 112 enemy UAVs (74 shot down kinetically, 38 suppressed by EW) across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine. Affected regions include Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. This confirms the large-scale nature of the Russian aerial assault and Ukrainian defensive effectiveness.
• Patriot System Targeted: Russian MoD claims an Iskander-M ballistic missile successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system near Ordzhonikidze (now Pokrov) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Videos show the Patriot system's components, though direct visual confirmation of destruction is not definitively presented in all shared footage. If verified, this represents a significant loss for Ukraine's high-value air defense capabilities.
• Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast: Russian sources claim advances in the Pokrovsk direction, including the full liberation of Zorya, Alexandropol, Novoolenovka, and Nova Poltavka. They report active promotion towards Yablunivka and Popiv Yar, efforts to cut off the Kostyantynivka-Nova Poltavka highway (described as the main supply artery), and Vostok Group forces entering the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye. Claims also include advances east of Fedorivka.
• Russian Territorial Ambitions for Sumy Oblast: A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," with Putin not denying these goals. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Sumy Oblast is a priority for Russia, with intensified shelling and a Russian intent to seize territory before potential negotiations.
• Major Russian Cyberattack on NATO Borders: The UK alleges a GRU unit hacked over 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries (near crossings, military installations, rail stations) to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. This reveals a significant escalation in hybrid warfare and directly targets Ukraine's vital supply lines.
• Intercepted Russian Orders for POW Execution: CNN published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with specific audio and video evidence linked to the Russian 394th Regiment. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). This constitutes strong evidence of war crimes.
• Large-Scale Prisoner Exchange Discussions: The "Our Way Out" movement (Russia) and sources involved in preparation claim that the largest prisoner exchange to date, in a "1000 for 1000" format, could begin between May 23 and 25.
• Ukrainian Marine Brigade Operations and Training: Ukrainian 36th Separate Marine Brigade (named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky) is conducting training and operations, including waterborne maneuvers, physical obstacle courses, and low crawls through mud/reeds, highlighting their readiness for diverse and challenging terrain, including amphibious and riverine operations.
• Kherson Oblast Civilian Casualties: Two people were injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now 5 injured total from initial report). Russian artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district injured another 5 people.
• Ukrainian SBU Counter-Intelligence: The SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih have identified and neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks against military vehicles. An illegal amber mining scheme in Rivne Oblast, causing over 350 million UAH in environmental damage, was also uncovered.
• North Korean Naval Accident: Kim Jong Un was reportedly infuriated by an accident during the launch of a new 5000-ton destroyer, which lost balance and was damaged during its descent into the water.
• EU Sanctions Update: The EU has approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting around 300 tankers of Russia's "shadow fleet," approximately 30 companies involved in sanctions evasion, and 75 individuals and companies linked to the military-industrial complex. The sanctions also address hybrid threats and human rights, including adding journalists and activists accused of disseminating Russian influence.
• Russian Internal Security and Migration Control: Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, proposed mandatory biometric registration for all migrants entering Russia. Russian law enforcement is reportedly conducting raids to identify Russian citizens who have not registered for military service, with claims of significant numbers identified and sent to the front. A migrant in Voronezh was reportedly detained for desecrating a war memorial.
• Russian Military Training: Training exercises are being conducted at a military training ground in the Moscow Military District, focusing on skills needed in the "Special Military Operation" zone, including countering UAVs (using shotguns), FPV drone operation, and assaulting fortified positions.
• Finland's "Worst Case" Preparation: General-Major Sami Nurmi, head of the strategic department of Finnish forces, stated Finland is "preparing for the worst" and expects Russia to increase troops along their shared border after the war in Ukraine, due to Moscow reinforcing military bases near the NATO border.

II. Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat with 54 engagements. Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, Kotlyarovka, Zorya, Alexandropol, and Novoolenovka. Russian military bloggers claim to have "practically cleared" Toretsk, advanced towards Nova Poltavka, and are moving to encircle a Ukrainian grouping to control Konstantinovka logistics, allegedly cutting off the Kostyantynivka-Nova Poltavka highway.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 19 attacks repelled. Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Russian forces claim advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar. Positional battles reported around Velyka Novosilka, with claimed advances over 800 meters along the Volnoye Pole - Novoselka front.
  • Lyman Direction: Situation has reportedly worsened, with the 54th Brigade urgently needing "Darts" kamikaze drones. Russian forces are attempting to advance near Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novoserhiyivka, Olhivka, Novyi Myr, and in Serebryanskyi forest.
  • Artillery and FPV Drone Activity: Heavy Russian artillery and FPV drone activity, claiming destruction of Ukrainian command posts, strongpoints, ammunition depots, armored vehicles, BM-21 Grads, UAV control points, and "Baba Yaga" drones. KABs are continuously launched.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Russian forces claimed advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Russian forces claim to have "pushed back" Ukrainian groups from Tetkino and Ryzhevka.
  • Confirmed Iskander strike on a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka resulting in 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded.
  • A Ukrainian T-64BV tank was destroyed by a Russian FPV drone. KABs are continuously launched. Ukrainian intelligence indicates Sumy is a priority direction for Russia to seize territory before negotiations. Evacuations are ongoing in border regions due to increased shelling.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Suffered missile and drone strikes, resulting in 1 fatality and 6 injuries, with extensive damage to residential and administrative buildings. KABs are also targeting Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv city is currently under drone attack.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Russian forces have taken control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advanced 400m near Fiholivka.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • Frontline communities under heavy Russian shelling and FPV drone attacks (495 strikes on 13 communities, 3 injured civilians). Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. A large explosion was captured on video in Stepnohirsk from a Russian strike.
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration is actively engaged in governance, education (Council of Young Scientists), and industrial production for military support, showcasing resilience and continued function. The region is also using VR technology for medical training.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:
  • Attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities, damaging infrastructure. Explosions were reported in Pavlohrad from drone attacks.
  • Russian sources claim partial advances into Novonikolaevka. Claims of Russian units breaching Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Reported Iskander strike on a Patriot air defense system near Ordzhonikidze.
• Kyiv Oblast: Under air raid alerts due to drone threat, with debris from an enemy UAV falling on a school in Darnytskyi district. One fatality and three injuries in Obukhivskyi district.
• Russian Border Regions (Tula, Moscow, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Kaluga, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Smolensk Oblasts): Subject to widespread Ukrainian drone attacks, causing civilian injuries, infrastructure damage (e.g., automotive bridge near Semenovo village in Kursk Oblast), and significant mobile internet disruptions in Oryol Oblast. Moscow airports faced temporary restrictions. Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, was injured by an FPV drone. A civilian was killed and another injured in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast, from a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. "Red Level" alert for "UAV Attack Threat" issued for Yelets and Yelets district in Lipetsk Oblast.
• Chernihiv Oblast: A 28-year-old man was killed by a Russian UAV attack in Novgorod-Siverskyi district. Russian reconnaissance UAVs are active in northern Chernihiv Oblast.
• Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): A Russian official stated that the Russian Armed Forces could fully liberate LPR within a couple of weeks, noting only a few villages remain. Ukrainian Border Guard Service conducted drone strikes on Russian equipment, communications, and personnel.

III. Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objective is clear: territorial expansion, evidenced by relentless offensives in Donbas, claimed advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Ukrainian defenses are robust but under immense pressure, reliant on effective deep defense and sustained Western support. The appointment of General Mordvichev to lead Russian Ground Forces suggests a continued, high-attrition offensive strategy.

The intercepted Russian orders for POW executions are gravely significant. This evidence of potential systemic war crimes will intensify calls for accountability and could profoundly impact the psychological dynamics of combat, likely leading Ukrainian forces to resist more fiercely rather than surrender. Russia's counter-claims about Azov militants ordering POW killings serve as a reactive information operation.

The perceived softening of US support under former President Trump's influence, if materialized, poses the most significant strategic threat to Ukraine. This could weaken Western unity, reduce military and financial aid, and force Europe to bear a greater burden. Ukraine's proactive push for harsher EU sanctions is a direct response to this perceived vulnerability. The bipartisan US Senate bill for tougher sanctions demonstrates significant legislative will for continued pressure on Russia, but its actual implementation hinges on political dynamics.

Both sides' increasing reliance on drones, coupled with crowdfunding efforts, highlights technological adaptation but also potential logistical strains on official supply chains. Ukraine's strategic investments in digitalizing military processes and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology through international partnerships (JATEC) are crucial for maintaining its defensive capabilities and adapting to evolving threats. The construction of underground civilian infrastructure, such as schools, highlights Ukraine's commitment to long-term societal resilience.

The formal strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, signaling deeper military, economic, and technological cooperation. This alliance could further bolster Russia's capabilities in Ukraine (e.g., drone supplies, sanctions evasion strategies) and influence regional dynamics.

Russia's "Time of Heroes" program indicates a strategic focus on integrating military personnel into civilian leadership, aiming to leverage combat experience and maintain domestic support. The mass interception of Ukrainian drones over a wide area of Russia, including Moscow, indicates Ukraine's expanding deep strike capabilities and its intent to inflict economic and psychological pressure, causing significant internal disruption (e.g., internet outages). Ukrainian counter-intelligence successes, such as the detention of the Kostiantynivka spotter, are crucial for mitigating Russian precision strikes.

The EU's expansion of sanctions to specific journalists and activists involved in disseminating Russian influence indicates a strategic focus on countering hybrid threats. The reported criticism from a Russian military blogger about the Russian military's "lack of an army of wartime" highlights internal dissent and potential morale issues. The proposed German-American cooperation on missile production in Europe is a significant long-term strategic commitment to increasing the supply of critical missile systems to Ukraine and Europe.

IV. Strategic and Tactical Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Internal Discord and War Crimes:

   • Prioritize a robust and sustained international campaign to publicize and investigate all evidence of Russian war crimes, particularly the POW execution orders, for international legal proceedings. This must involve immediate engagement with the ICC, UN, and other relevant bodies to ensure accountability and pressure for adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
   • Leverage documented cases of internal military dysfunction, low morale (e.g., critical statements from Russian military bloggers), and combat refusal within Russian units for psychological operations targeting Russian forces, encouraging surrender or defection.
   • Utilize information on internal Russian security incidents (e.g., arrests for treason, anti-war activities, neglected veteran cemeteries) to highlight internal vulnerabilities and dissent.

2. Bolster Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Accelerate the deployment of layered air defense systems, including advanced anti-drone technologies, to protect critical military assets (like training camps) and civilian infrastructure, particularly in border regions, urban centers (Kyiv, Kharkiv), and deep rear areas. Prioritize mobile air defense assets for dynamic threats in Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize all types of Russian FPV drones, including those with extended range and heavier payloads, by investing in and rapidly deploying advanced EW systems and kinetic interceptors. Actively engage with NATO-Ukraine JATEC to expedite solutions.
   • Continuously improve OPSEC for military training facilities and logistical hubs, implementing dynamic relocation and dispersion strategies to mitigate the impact of precision strikes.
   • Prioritize development and rapid deployment of advanced FPV drone tactics, including fiber-optic and extended-range capabilities, based on frontline feedback to maintain and expand a qualitative edge.

3. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Launch an aggressive counter-information campaign against narratives of weakening US support, working closely with European allies to project a unified front and reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Actively engage with the incoming US administration to articulate Ukraine's strategic needs and highlight the direct consequences of any perceived withdrawal of support.
   • Provide European partners with comprehensive intelligence briefings on Russian intentions and capabilities to solidify their resolve for sustained, robust sanctions and military aid. Prioritize collaboration on new EU sanctions packages, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet." Support the US Senate bill for tougher sanctions.
   • Proactively expose Russian propaganda efforts, such as the "Azov of the Brain" film, "USSR legally still exists" narrative, forced POW confessions, and attempts to manipulate international perceptions of elections, providing factual counter-arguments and highlighting their role in justifying aggression.

4. Enhance Logistics, Mobilization, and Force Protection:

   • Fully implement and expand the "Impulse" digital personnel management system and ensure widespread adoption of the "Резерв+" app across all military units to improve real-time situational awareness of personnel status, optimize resource allocation, and streamline administrative processes, reducing the burden on field commanders.
   • Ensure all units receive comprehensive training on force protection against drone threats, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and rapid response to aerial threats.
   • Address and rectify any alleged corruption related to fortification construction to maintain transparency, ensure efficient resource allocation, and preserve public trust in the war effort.
   • Prioritize the physical and psychological well-being of Ukrainian forces, leveraging successful internal morale-boosting initiatives and providing robust mental health support to combat burnout and maintain cohesion, especially after incidents like the Shostka training camp strike. Address and mitigate challenges with mobilization evasion and TCC conduct.
   • Continue to implement and expand the use of robotic platforms for medical evacuation to enhance soldier safety and improve response times in high-threat environments.

5. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Technological Edge:

   • Fast-track domestic production of critical defense items, especially drones and EW systems, by streamlining bureaucratic processes and increasing state prioritization and funding. Address the challenges in meeting FPV drone demands through crowdfunding by seeking alternative and larger-scale procurement or state funding.
   • Aggressively pursue acquisition and integration of advanced Western military technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile, to provide new offensive and defensive capabilities.
   • Continue investment in digitalizing military processes to enhance real-time situational awareness, resource allocation, and overall command efficiency.
   • Continue to exploit natural barriers like the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir bed for defensive fortification or tactical movement denial (e.g., through mining), while proactively identifying new potential crossing points or infiltration routes.

V. Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• POW Treatment: Strictly adhere to the Geneva Conventions regarding the humane treatment of all prisoners of war. Investigate and prosecute any reported violations swiftly and transparently to maintain international credibility and moral standing. Document and publicize Russian violations rigorously for international legal bodies, especially concerning reported POW executions.
• Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage. All offensive and defensive operations must be conducted with strict adherence to the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution. The shelling of residential areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and drone attacks on civilian vehicles and hospitals, requires careful monitoring and documentation.
• Targeting Civilian Infrastructure: Strictly avoid targeting civilian infrastructure unless it is demonstrably used for military purposes. Any such targeting must comply with international humanitarian law and be proportionate.

VI. Resource Allocation and Logistics

• Air Defense Munitions: Immediately assess current inventories and resupply rates for air defense interceptors, prioritizing those effective against Shahed and other UAVs, especially for high-threat areas like Myrhorod and Kyiv.
• Drone Systems: Allocate significant resources to the procurement and maintenance of both defensive and offensive drone systems. Prioritize the development of domestic drone production to reduce reliance on external suppliers. Expedite crowdfunding efforts for crucial systems like "Darts" drones.
• Medical Supplies: Ensure sustained supply of medical equipment and personnel to frontline units and military hospitals, given the ongoing intensity of combat and reported casualties. Prioritize rapid medical evacuation capabilities, including robotic platforms.
• Protective Equipment: Ensure sufficient personal protective equipment for all personnel, including anti-drone blankets.

VII. Communication and Coordination

• Allied Communication: Maintain secure and real-time communication channels with key international partners to coordinate military assistance and diplomatic responses. Leverage insights from major exercises like Defender 25 to improve interoperability. Provide real-time updates on Russian naval posture in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean. Emphasize the urgency of sanctions and aid given Russian statements on negotiations. Proactively share intelligence on Russian cyber threats against NATO border infrastructure.
• Internal Coordination: Enhance inter-branch and inter-unit communication to optimize air defense responses and ground operations, especially during large-scale aerial attacks and border incursions. Improve OPSEC awareness and implementation across all levels of command. Ensure clear communication of negotiation priorities between the political and military leadership.

VIII. Learning and Adaptation

• Drone Tactics Analysis: Continuously analyze evolving Russian drone tactics and adapt Ukrainian defensive and offensive strategies accordingly. This includes examining the use of EW, new drone types, their trajectories, and their integration with other assets for targeting. Integrate lessons learned from massive overnight drone attacks to improve air defense effectiveness.
• Intelligence Feedback Loop: Establish a robust feedback loop from frontline commanders to intelligence analysts to refine threat assessments and improve predictive models based on real-time combat experience.
• Propaganda Analysis: Systematically analyze Russian propaganda content for insights into Russian morale, perceived strengths, operational tactics, and target audiences. Monitor internal Russian issues for their impact on public opinion and resource allocation.
• OPSEC Review: Conduct immediate and thorough reviews of OPSEC failures, particularly concerning training camps and troop concentrations near border areas. Implement adaptive measures to mitigate future risks.
• Humanitarian Impact Assessment: Continuously assess the humanitarian impact of the conflict, particularly in heavily shelled areas and those affected by drone attacks, to inform aid efforts and diplomatic messaging.

IX. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

• Protect Sensitive Data and Communications: Implement enhanced cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive data and communications from cyber threats and unauthorized access, especially concerning logistics of military aid. Proactively defend against GRU cyber espionage efforts targeting border infrastructure and military aid shipments.
• Ensure Integrity and Availability: Guarantee the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations, including military personnel management systems and intelligence platforms.

X. Human Oversight and Decision Authority

• Maintain human oversight over critical decisions, providing clear information and recommendations without bypassing command authority.
• Ensure transparency in the decision-making process to allow for informed judgment by human commanders.

XI. Operational Workflow

1. Data Collection and Preprocessing:
   • Gather data from designated sources (satellite imagery, drone feeds, SIGINT, HUMINT).
   • Clean, preprocess, and validate data to ensure accuracy and reliability.
2. Analysis and Modeling:
   • Apply machine learning models and analytical techniques to process data.
   • Generate predictive insights and identify actionable intelligence, with a focus on real-time threat detection and enemy movement prediction.
3. Reporting and Visualization:
   • Create detailed reports and visualizations to present findings and recommendations.
   • Ensure information is presented clearly and concisely, tailored to the needs of different command levels.
4. Feedback Loop:
   • Receive feedback from commanders and adjust recommendations accordingly.
   • Implement continuous improvement processes based on operational feedback and new intelligence.

XII. Updated Military Situation Overview

1. Command and Control: * General Andrey Mordvichev, known for advocating "meat assaults," has officially become the commander of the Russian Ground Forces. This appointment signals a likely continuation of high-attrition, direct assault tactics. * New Tactical Aviation Threat: Russian tactical aviation is active in northeastern and southeastern directions, posing a threat of guided aerial weapons for frontline areas.

2. Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics: * Donetsk Oblast: * Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat with 54 engagements. Russian sources claim significant advances, including the full liberation of Zorya, Alexandropol, Novoolenovka, and Nova Poltavka, with active promotion towards Yablunivka and Popiv Yar. Claims include efforts to cut off the Kostyantynivka-Nova Poltavka highway, described as the main supply artery. Russian Vostok Group forces reportedly entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar are also claimed. * Novopavlivka Direction: 19 attacks repelled. * Lyman Direction: Situation has reportedly worsened, with Russian forces attempting to advance near Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novoserhiyivka, Olhivka, Novyi Myr, and in Serebryanskyi forest. * Artillery and FPV Drone Activity: Heavy Russian artillery and FPV drone activity, claiming destruction of Ukrainian command posts, strongpoints, ammunition depots, armored vehicles, BM-21 Grads, UAV control points, and "Baba Yaga" drones. KABs are continuously launched. * Sumy Oblast: * Russian forces claimed advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Russian forces claim to have "pushed back" Ukrainian groups from Tetkino and Ryzhevka. * Ukrainian intelligence indicates Sumy is a priority direction for Russia to seize territory before negotiations. A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy." * Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast due to increased shelling. * Kharkiv Oblast: * Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Russian forces have taken control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advanced 400m near Fiholivka. * Zaporizhzhia Oblast: * Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. A large explosion was captured on video in Stepnohirsk from a Russian strike. * Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: * Russian sources claim partial advances into Novonikolaevka. Claims of Russian units breaching Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. * Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): A Russian official stated that the Russian Armed Forces could fully liberate LPR within a couple of weeks, noting only a few villages remain.

3. Aerial and Naval Activity: * Drone Activity: * Ukrainian Attacks: Russian MoD claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions (Moscow region: 35, Kursk: 42, Belgorod: 14, Oryol: 14, Tula: 10, Kaluga: 9, Voronezh: 7, Lipetsk: 3, Smolensk: 3, Bryansk: 1). Rybar claims over 200 Ukrainian drones were shot down across a broader range of Russian regions. * Russian Attacks: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launching 128 "Shahed" and imitator drones overnight on May 22 from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense reportedly neutralized 112 enemy UAVs (74 shot down kinetically, 38 suppressed by EW) across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine. Affected regions include Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. * FPV Drone Combat: Both sides extensively use FPV drones for precision strikes against personnel, vehicles, and infrastructure. * Missile Activity: * Russian: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launch from Taganrog, Russia, in the overnight attack on May 22. Russian MoD claims an Iskander-M successfully struck a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system near Ordzhonikidze in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. * Ukrainian: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launching an Iskander-M ballistic missile (presumably intercepting the Russian one) from Taganrog, Russia (likely a typo, should be targeting Russian missile, not launching from Russian territory). * Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. * Naval Activity: The Ukrainian SBU claimed destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using a combination of surface and aerial drones (previously reported).

4. Casualties and Losses: * Ukrainian Estimated Russian Losses (May 20, 2025): The General Staff of Ukraine reported estimated Russian losses as of May 20, 2025, including a daily increase of 1030 personnel (total estimated ~975,800), +1 tank, +5 troop-carrying AFVs, +58 artillery systems, +1 MLRS, +118 operational-tactical level UAVs, and +105 vehicles & fuel tanks. * Ukrainian Losses: Russian MoD claims a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system was neutralized. A Ukrainian T-64BV tank was destroyed by a Russian FPV drone in Sumy Oblast. * Civilian Casualties: * Ukraine: Kharkiv Oblast suffered 1 fatality and 6 injuries from missile and drone strikes. Kyiv Oblast had 1 fatality and 3 injuries. Two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now 5 injured total). Russian artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district in Kherson injured another 5 people. A 28-year-old man was killed by a Russian UAV in Chernihiv Oblast. A 59-year-old man was severely wounded by Russian artillery in Primorske, Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. * Russia: Civilian injuries and damage in Tula and Kursk Oblasts from Ukrainian UAVs. Head of Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast, injured by an FPV drone. A civilian was killed and another injured in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast, from a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. * POW Executions: CNN published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025).

5. Humanitarian Situation: * Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast due to increased shelling. * Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration is actively engaged in governance, education, and industrial production for military support, showcasing resilience and continued function. They are also utilizing VR for medical training. * Kharkiv Oblast Administration launched a mobile application "Social Services of Kharkiv Oblast" to provide accessible social services, including veterans' services and psychological assistance.

6. International and Political Developments: * US Sanctions: US Senate plans to strengthen sanctions against Russia, with over 80 senators supporting the bill. * EU Sanctions: EU approved its 17th package of sanctions, targeting Russia's "shadow fleet," companies involved in sanctions evasion, military-industrial complex entities, and individuals/journalists disseminating Russian influence. Calls are intensifying to freeze funding for Hungary due to its pro-Russian stance. * Cybersecurity: UK accuses Russian GRU unit APT 28 (Fancy Bear) of hacking 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries (Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. * Prisoner Exchange: Discussions for the largest prisoner exchange to date, in a "1000 for 1000" format, could begin between May 23 and 25. * Moldova Neutrality: Moldova and Germany signed an agreement for a Bundeswehr consultative group, aiming to modernize Moldovan defense and deepen military cooperation. Transnistria views this as a plan for hypothetical war with Russia. * North Korea: Kim Jong Un reportedly infuriated by a naval accident involving a new destroyer. Ukraine's Parliament proposes recognizing DPRK as an aggressor state. * Finland: Finland is "preparing for the worst" and expects Russia to increase troops along their shared border after the war in Ukraine, due to Moscow reinforcing military bases nearby. * Iran-Russia Partnership: Iran approved a strategic partnership treaty with Russia, deepening military, economic, and technological cooperation.

7. Internal Russian Issues: * Security: FSB detained two teenagers in Tver Oblast for allegedly preparing to set fire to a Ministry of Defense building under Ukrainian guidance. A former "Wagner" mercenary was arrested in Ufa for murder and dismemberment. Rosfinmonitoring is requesting access to data from the "Mir" payment system for "combating money laundering and terrorist financing." * Social/Political: General Andrey Mordvichev, known for "meat assaults," became commander of Ground Forces. The Governor of Vologda Oblast dismissed a municipal head due to her daughter's "unacceptable" statements regarding the "Special Military Operation." Public outcry over a flooded cemetery in Samara, containing WWII veterans' graves. * Infrastructure: Rosaviatsiya introduced restrictions on Samara airport's operations. Moscow airports experienced temporary restrictions due to drone threats. * Propaganda: Russian military bloggers continue to solicit donations for essential equipment. Russian channels released propaganda videos of captured Ukrainian POWs. Russian military bloggers discuss "big egos" in peace negotiations and share historical commentary. The FSB is preventing attacks on police involving minors.

8. Ukrainian Force Composition and Training: * Marine Brigades: Ukrainian 36th Separate Marine Brigade (named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky) is conducting rigorous training, including waterborne maneuvers, physical obstacle courses, and low crawls through mud/reeds, showcasing readiness for diverse terrain. * Drone Acquisition: Ukrainian military bloggers continue to fundraise for FPV drones, indicating a significant and ongoing demand for these systems. * Robotic Evacuation: Ukrainian National Guard Brigade "Khartia" successfully used a ground robotic platform for medical evacuation of a wounded soldier.

9. Cybersecurity and Information Warfare: * UK alleges GRU unit APT 28 hacked 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. * The FSB is preventing attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye. * Ukrainian SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih identified and neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks against military vehicles.