Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Update: May 22, 2025, 07:53 UTC

Major Updates

• Intensified Russian Deep Drone Strikes: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims a staggering 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions from 00:00 to 05:30 MSK, including 35 over the Moscow region, 42 over Kursk, and 14 over Belgorod. This scale indicates a persistent and large-scale Ukrainian deep drone attack, causing mobile internet disruptions in affected regions (Oryol Oblast). The Governor of Tula confirmed two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack, verifying successful Ukrainian strikes and their immediate impact. Domodedovo airport in Moscow experienced temporary restrictions three times.
• Persistent Russian Aerial Bombardment and Drone Activity in Ukraine:
  • The threat to Kyiv is confirmed, with enemy drones reportedly directly over the capital, prompting air raid alerts and sounds of explosions. Debris from a Russian UAV fell on a school in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district, fortunately without casualties.
  • Russian forces launched sustained drone attacks on Sumy, hitting two enterprises and causing power outages and water supply disruptions. One civilian was injured in Sumy due to a drone attack. KABs are continually launched at Sumy Oblast.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities, damaging infrastructure. Explosions were reported in Pavlohrad from drone attacks.
  • Kharkiv Oblast suffered missile and drone strikes, resulting in 1 fatality and 6 injuries, with extensive damage to residential and administrative buildings. KABs are also targeting Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv city is currently under drone attack.
  • A 28-year-old man was killed by a Russian UAV attack in Novgorod-Siverskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. Russian reconnaissance UAVs are active in northern Chernihiv, northern Sumy, northern Kherson, and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Confirmed Russian Iskander Strike on Ukrainian Training Camp: A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded. This highlights severe Ukrainian OPSEC failures and Russia's precision strike capabilities, leading to calls for the dismissal of the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief.
• Intensified Ground Combat and Russian Advances:
  • Donetsk Front - Continued Russian Pressure: Russian forces continue offensive actions, claiming advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, allegedly reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This claim is categorically denied by Ukrainian authorities as a fake. Intense fighting continues on the Pokrovsk direction (54 engagements), Novopavlivka direction (19 attacks repelled), and Toretsk direction (16 attacks repelled). Russian forces also claim to have recaptured several Ukrainian positions near Verkhnokamyanske in the DPR. Russian military bloggers claim to have "practically cleared" Toretsk, advanced towards Nova Poltavka, and are moving to encircle a Ukrainian grouping to control Konstantinovka logistics. Russian forces of the "Center" Group are reportedly advancing on the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting in Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), and Zverevo. Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Russian forces claim advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar. Positional battles reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces claim to have advanced over 800 meters along the Volnoye Pole - Novoselka front.
  • Chasov Yar - Heavy Ukrainian Losses Claimed: A Russian military expert claimed Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen under Chasov Yar, indicating extremely heavy Ukrainian losses in this key sector.
  • Sumy Direction - Russian Advances Claimed: Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, leading to calls for dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures. Russian forces claim to have "pushed back" Ukrainian groups from Tetkino and Ryzhevka.
  • Kharkiv Direction - Persistent Russian Pressure: Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Russian forces have taken control of 2 km of highway near Krasne Pershe and advanced 400m near Fiholivka in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Heavy Shelling: Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, with 495 strikes on 13 communities over the past day, including 6 air strikes and 303 FPV drone attacks, resulting in 3 injured civilians and damage to 15 residential properties. Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. A large explosion was captured on video in Stepnohirsk from a Russian strike.
• Strategic and Geopolitical Developments:
  • Trump's Assessment of Putin's Intentions: The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump privately informed EU leaders that Russian President Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning. This signals a hardened Russian stance and reinforces the expectation of prolonged conflict, potentially undermining Western unity.
  • Intercepted Russian Orders for POW Execution: CNN has published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with specific audio and video evidence linked to the Russian 394th Regiment. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). This constitutes strong evidence of war crimes.
  • Major Russian Cyberattack on NATO Borders: The UK alleges a GRU unit hacked over 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries (near crossings, military installations, rail stations) to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. This reveals a significant escalation in hybrid warfare.
  • Ukrainian Negotiation Priorities Outlined: The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, explicitly stated Ukraine's two next steps for negotiations: a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange and determining the location for a future meeting with Russian representatives (potentially in the Vatican in mid-June). Russia claims Ukraine lacks enough Russian POWs for such an exchange, suggesting a manipulative information operation. Russia's MFA legal department director, Maxim Musikhin, commented that the Ukrainian people should choose new leadership for a peace memorandum with Russia, as the current parliament speaker may not be legally suitable.
  • Ukrainian Call for Stronger EU Sanctions: Ukraine will urge the EU next week to consider new large-scale measures to isolate Moscow, including asset freezes and secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers (India, China), citing perceived US reluctance to strengthen sanctions. A bipartisan bill in the US Senate received support from 81 out of 100 senators for tougher sanctions against Russia if Putin does not show a commitment to peace within days, including a 500% tariff on imports from countries buying Russian oil, gas, and uranium.
  • Russian Explicit Territorial Ambitions: A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger," with Putin not denying these goals. This signals direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas.
  • Iran-Russia Strategic Partnership: The Iranian Parliament approved a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Russia, deepening cooperation in defense, economy (energy, finance, transport), combating "unilateral sanctions," and developing alternatives to SWIFT. This signifies a deepening geopolitical alliance.
  • Ukrainian Military Personnel Management: The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025, addressing manpower needs. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade is actively recruiting sappers. Crowds are reported at military enlistment offices, with individuals attempting to process deferrals before June 5.
  • Russian Military Crowdfunding for Critical Equipment: Russian paratroopers on the Zaporozhye direction are publicly appealing for Starlink satellite communication terminals, highlighting deficiencies in their standard military communication systems and reliance on commercial tech. Similarly, Ukrainian units continue to fundraise for FPV drones, with the 54th Brigade on the Lyman direction urgently requesting "Darts" kamikaze drones. Russian units on the Krasnolimansk direction are also crowdfunding for vehicles, EW systems, thermal sights, and drone detectors.
  • Polish Stance on Troops in Ukraine: The Polish Prime Minister categorically stated that Poland will not send its troops to Ukraine, attributing this to domestic political shifts due to public fatigue with the war and Ukrainian refugees.
  • Russian Internal Security Measures: The FSB detained a resident of Donetsk accused of "state treason" for allegedly financing Ukrainian forces. Two teenagers were detained for attempting to set fire to a Ministry of Defense building in Tver Oblast. A pilot project in Moscow and Moscow Oblast will implement total control over foreigners via mandatory mobile application geolocation tracking from September 1, 2025. Investigations continue into corruption at the Zabaykalsk border crossing point with China.
  • Propaganda Videos: Russian channels released propaganda videos of captured Ukrainian POWs thanking Russian forces for humane treatment and urging other Ukrainian soldiers to surrender, featuring forced pro-Russian slogans. One such video shows a Ukrainian private from the 23rd Brigade. Another shows two POWs from the 37th and 23rd Brigades.
  • Alleged Ukrainian Officer Elimination: Ukrainian HUR claims four "Kadyrovite" officers were eliminated in an explosion near Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast, on May 20, 2025.
  • Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence Success: The SBU detained an IT specialist in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, accused of gathering data for the Russian GRU on Ukrainian fortifications and command posts for planned KAB strikes.
  • Russian Internal Opinion: Russian military bloggers express concern about the perception of the conflict, noting that "Trump said European leaders that Russia isn't ending the war," and warn against looking down on the "stupid Khokhol" (derogatory term for Ukrainian), urging continued public support for the front.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Under renewed significant drone threat, with new groups of UAVs reported from the Black Sea heading towards the coast. Counter-reconnaissance efforts are underway. Explosions reported overnight.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Suffered missile and drone strikes (1 fatality, 6 injuries). Continued combat clashes near Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces have advanced near Krasne Pershe and Fiholivka. KABs are consistently targeting the oblast. Kharkiv city is currently under drone attack.
• Donetsk Oblast: Most active ground combat zone, especially the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Toretsk directions. Russian forces claim gains near Verkhnokamyanske and on the Polozhsky direction. Russian thermobaric systems (TOS-1A "Solntsepyok") used in Volchansk, Chasiv Yar, and Privolye. Russian FPV drones struck a temporary Ukrainian strongpoint at Dyleevka. Russian forces are striking military personnel near Otradnoye.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Frontline communities under heavy shelling and FPV drone attacks. Active ground engagements on the Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Prydniprovskyi directions. Stepnohirsk was hit by at least nine KABs.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian drone attacks damaged industrial enterprises and residential areas. Drones reported heading towards Pavlohrad. Russian sources claim partial advances into Novonikolaevka.
• Sumy Oblast: Ongoing Russian drone activity and shelling, prompting evacuations in border regions. Confirmed Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka. KABs are consistently targeting Sumy Oblast. Russian ground advances near Tetkino and Ryzhevka.
• Kyiv Oblast: Under air raid alerts due to drone threat, with debris from an enemy UAV falling on a school in Darnytskyi district. One fatality and three injuries in Obukhivskyi district.
• Tula Oblast (Russia): Civilian injuries and building damage confirmed from a Ukrainian drone attack. Russian MoD claims 10 UAVs shot down over the region.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Subject to a massive Ukrainian drone attack, with Russian MoD claiming 35 UAVs shot down. Domodedovo airport faced temporary restrictions.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Head of Belovsky district injured by a Ukrainian drone, highlighting persistent cross-border attacks.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian drone attacks, with 42 Russian assaults repelled (MoD claim). One fatality in Pody due to Ukrainian drone attack. Russian governor reports mobile internet/communication restrictions.
• Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 14 UAVs shot down. Mobile internet and communication restrictions imposed.
• Kherson Oblast: Two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now 5 injured). Russian artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district injured another 5 people. Russian drone strikes destroyed Ukrainian boats on the Dnipro. Ukrainian HUR claims four "Kadyrovite" officers eliminated near Skadovsk.
• Lyman Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Situation has reportedly worsened, with the 54th Brigade urgently needing "Darts" kamikaze drones.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian DRG reportedly blocked, roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo blocked. "Terrorists" claimed eliminated.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict continues as a multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objective remains territorial expansion, evident in relentless offensives in Donbas, claimed advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Ukrainian defenses are robust but under immense pressure, reliant on effective deep defense and sustained Western support.

The intercepted Russian orders for POW executions are gravely significant. This evidence of potential systemic war crimes will intensify calls for accountability and could profoundly impact the psychological dynamics of combat, likely leading Ukrainian forces to resist more fiercely rather than surrender. Russia's counter-claims about Azov militants ordering POW killings serve as a reactive information operation.

The perceived softening of US support under former President Trump's influence, if materialized, poses the most significant strategic threat to Ukraine. This could weaken Western unity, reduce military and financial aid, and force Europe to bear a greater burden. Ukraine's proactive push for harsher EU sanctions is a direct response to this perceived vulnerability. The bipartisan US Senate bill for tougher sanctions demonstrates significant legislative will for continued pressure on Russia, but its actual implementation hinges on political dynamics.

Both sides' increasing reliance on drones, coupled with crowdfunding efforts, highlights technological adaptation but also potential logistical strains on official supply chains. Ukraine's strategic investments in digitalizing military processes and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology through international partnerships (JATEC) are crucial for maintaining its defensive capabilities and adapting to evolving threats. The construction of underground civilian infrastructure, such as schools, highlights Ukraine's commitment to long-term societal resilience.

The formal strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, signaling deeper military, economic, and technological cooperation. This alliance could further bolster Russia's capabilities in Ukraine (e.g., drone supplies, sanctions evasion strategies) and influence regional dynamics.

Russia's "Time of Heroes" program indicates a strategic focus on integrating military personnel into civilian leadership, aiming to leverage combat experience and maintain domestic support. The mass interception of Ukrainian drones over a wide area of Russia, including Moscow, indicates Ukraine's expanding deep strike capabilities and its intent to inflict economic and psychological pressure, causing significant internal disruption (e.g., internet outages). Ukrainian counter-intelligence successes, such as the detention of the Kostiantynivka spotter, are crucial for mitigating Russian precision strikes.

Strategic and Tactical Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Internal Discord and War Crimes:

   • Prioritize a robust and sustained international campaign to publicize and investigate all evidence of Russian war crimes, particularly the POW execution orders, for international legal proceedings. This must involve immediate engagement with the ICC, UN, and other relevant bodies to ensure accountability and pressure for adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
   • Leverage documented cases of internal military dysfunction, low morale, and combat refusal within Russian units for psychological operations targeting Russian forces, encouraging surrender or defection.
   • Target specific Russian military commanders accused of atrocities or incompetence, undermining their authority and morale.
   • Utilize information on internal Russian security incidents (e.g., arrests for treason, anti-war activities) to highlight internal vulnerabilities and dissent.

2. Bolster Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Accelerate the deployment of layered air defense systems, including advanced anti-drone technologies, to protect critical military assets (like training camps) and civilian infrastructure, particularly in border regions, urban centers (Kyiv, Kharkiv), and deep rear areas. Prioritize mobile air defense assets for dynamic threats in Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize all types of Russian FPV drones, including those with extended range and heavier payloads, by investing in and rapidly deploying advanced EW systems and kinetic interceptors. Actively engage with NATO-Ukraine JATEC to expedite solutions.
   • Continuously improve OPSEC for military training facilities and logistical hubs, implementing dynamic relocation and dispersion strategies to mitigate the impact of precision strikes.
   • Prioritize development and rapid deployment of advanced FPV drone tactics, including fiber-optic and extended-range capabilities, based on frontline feedback to maintain and expand a qualitative edge.

3. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Launch an aggressive counter-information campaign against narratives of weakening US support, working closely with European allies to project a unified front and reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Actively engage with the incoming US administration to articulate Ukraine's strategic needs and highlight the direct consequences of any perceived withdrawal of support.
   • Provide European partners with comprehensive intelligence briefings on Russian intentions and capabilities to solidify their resolve for sustained, robust sanctions and military aid. Prioritize collaboration on the 18th EU sanctions package, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet." Support the US Senate bill for tougher sanctions.
   • Proactively expose Russian propaganda efforts, such as the "Azov of the Brain" film, "USSR legally still exists" narrative, and forced POW confessions, providing factual counter-arguments and highlighting their role in justifying aggression. Counter Russian claims on Mariupol's destruction by providing factual evidence of their targeting of civilian infrastructure.

4. Enhance Logistics, Mobilization, and Force Protection:

   • Fully implement and expand the "Impulse" digital personnel management system and ensure widespread adoption of the "Резерв+" app across all military units to improve real-time situational awareness of personnel status, optimize resource allocation, and streamline administrative processes, reducing the burden on field commanders.
   • Ensure all units receive comprehensive training on force protection against drone threats, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and rapid response to aerial threats.
   • Address and rectify any alleged corruption related to fortification construction to maintain transparency, ensure efficient resource allocation, and preserve public trust in the war effort.
   • Prioritize the physical and psychological well-being of Ukrainian forces, leveraging successful internal morale-boosting initiatives and providing robust mental health support to combat burnout and maintain cohesion, especially after incidents like the Shostka training camp strike. Address and mitigate challenges with mobilization evasion and TCC conduct.

5. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Technological Edge:

   • Fast-track domestic production of critical defense items, especially drones and EW systems, by streamlining bureaucratic processes and increasing state prioritization and funding. Address the challenges in meeting FPV drone demands through crowdfunding by seeking alternative and larger-scale procurement or state funding.
   • Aggressively pursue acquisition and integration of advanced Western military technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile, to provide new offensive and defensive capabilities.
   • Continue investment in digitalizing military processes to enhance real-time situational awareness, resource allocation, and overall command efficiency.
   • Continue to exploit natural barriers like the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir bed for defensive fortification or tactical movement denial (e.g., through mining), while proactively identifying new potential crossing points or infiltration routes.

Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• POW Treatment: Strictly adhere to the Geneva Conventions regarding the humane treatment of all prisoners of war. Investigate and prosecute any reported violations swiftly and transparently to maintain international credibility and moral standing. Document and publicize Russian violations rigorously for international legal bodies, especially concerning reported POW executions.
• Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage. All offensive and defensive operations must be conducted with strict adherence to the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution. The shelling of residential areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and drone attacks on civilian vehicles and hospitals, requires careful monitoring and documentation.
• Targeting Civilian Infrastructure: Strictly avoid targeting civilian infrastructure unless it is demonstrably used for military purposes. Any such targeting must comply with international humanitarian law and be proportionate.

Resource Allocation and Logistics

• Air Defense Munitions: Immediately assess current inventories and resupply rates for air defense interceptors, prioritizing those effective against Shahed and other UAVs, especially for high-threat areas like Myrhorod and Kyiv.
• Drone Systems: Allocate significant resources to the procurement and maintenance of both defensive and offensive drone systems. Prioritize the development of domestic drone production to reduce reliance on external suppliers. Expedite crowdfunding efforts for crucial systems like "Darts" drones.
• Medical Supplies: Ensure sustained supply of medical equipment and personnel to frontline units and military hospitals, given the ongoing intensity of combat and reported casualties. Prioritize rapid medical evacuation capabilities, including robotic platforms.
• Protective Equipment: Ensure sufficient personal protective equipment for all personnel, including anti-drone blankets.

Communication and Coordination

• Allied Communication: Maintain secure and real-time communication channels with key international partners to coordinate military assistance and diplomatic responses. Leverage insights from major exercises like Defender 25 to improve interoperability. Provide real-time updates on Russian naval posture in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean. Emphasize the urgency of sanctions and aid given Russian statements on negotiations. Proactively share intelligence on Russian cyber threats against NATO border infrastructure.
• Internal Coordination: Enhance inter-branch and inter-unit communication to optimize air defense responses and ground operations, especially during large-scale aerial attacks and border incursions. Improve OPSEC awareness and implementation across all levels of command. Ensure clear communication of negotiation priorities between the political and military leadership.

Learning and Adaptation

• Drone Tactics Analysis: Continuously analyze evolving Russian drone tactics and adapt Ukrainian defensive and offensive strategies accordingly. This includes examining the use of EW, new drone types, their trajectories, and their integration with other assets for targeting. Integrate lessons learned from massive overnight drone attacks to improve air defense effectiveness.
• Intelligence Feedback Loop: Establish a robust feedback loop from frontline commanders to intelligence analysts to refine threat assessments and improve predictive models based on real-time combat experience.
• Propaganda Analysis: Systematically analyze Russian propaganda content for insights into Russian morale, perceived strengths, operational tactics, and target audiences. Monitor internal Russian issues for their impact on public opinion and resource allocation.
• OPSEC Review: Conduct immediate and thorough reviews of OPSEC failures, particularly concerning training camps and troop concentrations near border areas. Implement adaptive measures to mitigate future risks.
• Humanitarian Impact Assessment: Continuously assess the humanitarian impact of the conflict, particularly in heavily shelled areas and those affected by drone attacks, to inform aid efforts and diplomatic messaging.

Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

• Protect Sensitive Data and Communications: Implement enhanced cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive data and communications from cyber threats and unauthorized access, especially concerning logistics of military aid. Proactively defend against GRU cyber espionage efforts targeting border infrastructure and military aid shipments.
• Ensure Integrity and Availability: Guarantee the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations, including military personnel management systems and intelligence platforms.

Human Oversight and Decision Authority

• Maintain human oversight over critical decisions, providing clear information and recommendations without bypassing command authority.
• Ensure transparency in the decision-making process to allow for informed judgment by human commanders.

Operational Workflow

1. Data Collection and Preprocessing:
   • Gather data from designated sources (satellite imagery, drone feeds, SIGINT, HUMINT).
   • Clean, preprocess, and validate data to ensure accuracy and reliability.
2. Analysis and Modeling:
   • Apply machine learning models and analytical techniques to process data.
   • Generate predictive insights and identify actionable intelligence, with a focus on real-time threat detection and enemy movement prediction.
3. Reporting and Visualization:
   • Create detailed reports and visualizations to present findings and recommendations.
   • Ensure information is presented clearly and concisely, tailored to the needs of different command levels.
4. Feedback Loop:
   • Receive feedback from commanders and adjust recommendations accordingly.
   • Implement continuous improvement processes based on operational feedback and new intelligence.