Operational Intelligence Update: May 22, 2025, 06:53 UTC

Major Updates

Escalating Aerial Warfare and Civilian Impact

• Massive Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russia: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims a staggering 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions from 00:00 to 05:30 MSK, including 35 over the Moscow region, 42 over Kursk, and 14 over Belgorod. This scale indicates a persistent and large-scale Ukrainian deep drone attack, causing mobile internet disruptions in affected regions. The Governor of Tula confirmed two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack, verifying successful Ukrainian strikes and their immediate impact.
• Intensified Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: The threat to Kyiv is confirmed, with enemy drones reportedly directly over the capital, prompting air raid alerts and sounds of explosions. Debris from a Russian UAV fell on a school in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district, fortunately without casualties. Russian forces also launched sustained drone attacks on Sumy, hitting two enterprises and causing power outages and water supply disruptions. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities, damaging infrastructure. Kharkiv Oblast suffered missile and drone strikes, resulting in 1 fatality and 6 injuries, with extensive damage to residential and administrative buildings. A 28-year-old man was killed by a Russian UAV attack in Novgorod-Siverskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast.
• Confirmed Russian Iskander Strike on Ukrainian Training Camp: A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded. This highlights severe Ukrainian OPSEC failures and Russia's precision strike capabilities, leading to calls for the dismissal of the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief.

Ground Combat and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Front - Continued Russian Pressure: Russian forces continue offensive actions, claiming advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, allegedly reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This claim is categorically denied by Ukrainian authorities as a fake. Intense fighting continues on the Pokrovsk direction (54 engagements), Novopavlivka direction (19 attacks repelled), and Toretsk direction (16 attacks repelled). Russian forces also claim to have recaptured several Ukrainian positions near Verkhnokamyanske in the DPR.
• Chasov Yar - Heavy Ukrainian Losses Claimed: A Russian military expert claimed Ukrainian forces left approximately 800 bodies of killed servicemen under Chasov Yar, indicating extremely heavy Ukrainian losses in this key sector.
• Sumy Direction - Russian Advances Claimed: Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, leading to calls for dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures.
• Kharkiv Direction - Persistent Russian Pressure: Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka. Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Heavy Shelling: Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, with 495 strikes on 13 communities over the past day, including 6 air strikes and 303 FPV drone attacks, resulting in 3 injured civilians and damage to 15 residential properties.

Strategic and Geopolitical Developments

• Trump's Assessment of Putin's Intentions: The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump privately informed EU leaders that Russian President Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning. This signals a hardened Russian stance and reinforces the expectation of prolonged conflict, potentially undermining Western unity.
• Intercepted Russian Orders for POW Execution: CNN has published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with specific audio and video evidence linked to the Russian 394th Regiment. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). This constitutes strong evidence of war crimes.
• Major Russian Cyberattack on NATO Borders: The UK alleges a GRU unit hacked over 10,000 border security cameras in NATO countries (near crossings, military installations, rail stations) to spy on and disrupt aid shipments to Ukraine. This reveals a significant escalation in hybrid warfare.
• Ukrainian Negotiation Priorities Outlined: The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, explicitly stated Ukraine's two next steps for negotiations: a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange and determining the location for a future meeting with Russian representatives (potentially in the Vatican in mid-June). Russia claims Ukraine lacks enough Russian POWs for such an exchange, suggesting a manipulative information operation.
• Ukrainian Call for Stronger EU Sanctions: Ukraine will urge the EU next week to consider new large-scale measures to isolate Moscow, including asset freezes and secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers (India, China), citing perceived US reluctance to strengthen sanctions.
• Russian Explicit Territorial Ambitions: A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger," with Putin not denying these goals. This signals direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas.
• Iran-Russia Strategic Partnership: The Iranian Parliament approved a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Russia, deepening cooperation in defense, economy (energy, finance, transport), combating "unilateral sanctions," and developing alternatives to SWIFT. This signifies a deepening geopolitical alliance.
• Ukrainian Military Personnel Management: The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025, addressing manpower needs. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade is actively recruiting sappers.
• Russian Military Crowdfunding for Critical Equipment: Russian paratroopers on the Zaporozhye direction are publicly appealing for Starlink satellite communication terminals, highlighting deficiencies in their standard military communication systems and reliance on commercial tech. Similarly, Ukrainian units continue to fundraise for FPV drones.
• Polish Stance on Troops in Ukraine: The Polish Prime Minister categorically stated that Poland will not send its troops to Ukraine, attributing this to domestic political shifts due to public fatigue with the war and Ukrainian refugees.
• Russian Internal Security Measures: The FSB detained a resident of Donetsk accused of "state treason" for allegedly financing Ukrainian forces. A pilot project in Moscow and Moscow Oblast will implement total control over foreigners via mandatory mobile application geolocation tracking from September 1, 2025.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Under renewed significant drone threat, with new groups of UAVs reported from the Black Sea heading towards the coast. Counter-reconnaissance efforts are underway.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Suffered missile and drone strikes (1 fatality, 6 injuries). Continued combat clashes near Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka.
• Donetsk Oblast: Most active ground combat zone, especially the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Toretsk directions. Russian forces claim gains near Verkhnokamyanske and on the Polozhsky direction.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Frontline communities under heavy shelling and FPV drone attacks. Active ground engagements on the Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Prydniprovskyi directions.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian drone attacks damaged industrial enterprises and residential areas.
• Sumy Oblast: Ongoing Russian drone activity and shelling, prompting evacuations in border regions. Confirmed Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka.
• Kyiv Oblast: Under air raid alerts due to drone threat, with debris from an enemy UAV falling on a school in Darnytskyi district.
• Tula Oblast (Russia): Civilian injuries and building damage confirmed from a Ukrainian drone attack.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Subject to a massive Ukrainian drone attack, with Russian MoD claiming 35 UAVs shot down.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Head of Belovsky district injured by a Ukrainian drone, highlighting persistent cross-border attacks.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian drone attacks, with 18 Russian assaults repelled.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict continues as a multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objective remains territorial expansion, evident in relentless offensives in Donbas, claimed advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Ukrainian defenses are robust but under immense pressure, reliant on effective deep defense and sustained Western support.

The intercepted Russian orders for POW executions are gravely significant. This evidence of potential systemic war crimes will intensify calls for accountability and could profoundly impact the psychological dynamics of combat, likely leading Ukrainian forces to resist more fiercely rather than surrender. Russia's counter-claims about Azov militants ordering POW killings serve as a reactive information operation.

The perceived softening of US support under former President Trump's influence, if materialized, poses the most significant strategic threat to Ukraine. This could weaken Western unity, reduce military and financial aid, and force Europe to bear a greater burden. Ukraine's proactive push for harsher EU sanctions is a direct response to this perceived vulnerability.

Both sides' increasing reliance on drones, coupled with crowdfunding efforts, highlights technological adaptation but also potential logistical strains on official supply chains. Ukraine's strategic investments in digitalizing military processes and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology through international partnerships (JATEC) are crucial for maintaining its defensive capabilities and adapting to evolving threats. The construction of underground civilian infrastructure, such as schools, highlights Ukraine's commitment to long-term societal resilience.

The formal strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, signaling deeper military, economic, and technological cooperation. This alliance could further bolster Russia's capabilities in Ukraine (e.g., drone supplies, sanctions evasion strategies) and influence regional dynamics.

Russia's "Time of Heroes" program indicates a strategic focus on integrating military personnel into civilian leadership, aiming to leverage combat experience and maintain domestic support. The mass interception of Ukrainian drones over a wide area of Russia, including Moscow, indicates Ukraine's expanding deep strike capabilities and its intent to inflict economic and psychological pressure, causing significant internal disruption (e.g., internet outages).

Strategic and Tactical Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Internal Discord and War Crimes:

   • Prioritize a robust and sustained international campaign to publicize and investigate all evidence of Russian war crimes, particularly the POW execution orders, for international legal proceedings. This must involve immediate engagement with the ICC, UN, and other relevant bodies to ensure accountability and pressure for adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
   • Leverage documented cases of internal military dysfunction, low morale, and combat refusal within Russian units for psychological operations targeting Russian forces, encouraging surrender or defection.
   • Target specific Russian military commanders accused of atrocities or incompetence, undermining their authority and morale.

2. Bolster Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Accelerate the deployment of layered air defense systems, including advanced anti-drone technologies, to protect critical military assets (like training camps) and civilian infrastructure, particularly in border regions, urban centers (Kyiv, Kharkiv), and deep rear areas.
   • Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize all types of Russian FPV drones, including those with extended range and heavier payloads, by investing in and rapidly deploying advanced EW systems and kinetic interceptors. Actively engage with NATO-Ukraine JATEC to expedite solutions.
   • Continuously improve OPSEC for military training facilities and logistical hubs, implementing dynamic relocation and dispersion strategies to mitigate the impact of precision strikes.

3. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Launch an aggressive counter-information campaign against narratives of weakening US support, working closely with European allies to project a unified front and reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Actively engage with the incoming US administration to articulate Ukraine's strategic needs and highlight the direct consequences of any perceived withdrawal of support.
   • Provide European partners with comprehensive intelligence briefings on Russian intentions and capabilities to solidify their resolve for sustained, robust sanctions and military aid. Prioritize collaboration on the 18th EU sanctions package, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."
   • Proactively expose Russian propaganda efforts, such as the "Azov of the Brain" film and the "USSR legally still exists" narrative, providing factual counter-arguments and highlighting their role in justifying aggression. Counter Russian claims on Mariupol's destruction by providing factual evidence of their targeting of civilian infrastructure.

4. Enhance Logistics, Mobilization, and Force Protection:

   • Fully implement and expand the "Impulse" digital personnel management system and ensure widespread adoption of the "Резерв+" app across all military units to improve real-time situational awareness of personnel status, optimize resource allocation, and streamline administrative processes, reducing the burden on field commanders.
   • Ensure all units receive comprehensive training on force protection against drone threats, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and rapid response to aerial threats.
   • Address and rectify any alleged corruption related to fortification construction to maintain transparency, ensure efficient resource allocation, and preserve public trust in the war effort.
   • Prioritize the physical and psychological well-being of Ukrainian forces, leveraging successful internal morale-boosting initiatives and providing robust mental health support to combat burnout and maintain cohesion, especially after incidents like the Shostka training camp strike. Address and mitigate challenges with mobilization evasion.

5. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Technological Edge:

   • Fast-track domestic production of critical defense items, especially drones and EW systems, by streamlining bureaucratic processes and increasing state prioritization and funding. Address the challenges in meeting FPV drone demands through crowdfunding by seeking alternative and larger-scale procurement or state funding.
   • Aggressively pursue acquisition and integration of advanced Western military technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile, to provide new offensive and defensive capabilities.
   • Continue investment in digitalizing military processes to enhance real-time situational awareness, resource allocation, and overall command efficiency.
   • Continue to exploit natural barriers like the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir bed for defensive fortification or tactical movement denial (e.g., through mining), while proactively identifying new potential crossing points or infiltration routes.

Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• POW Treatment: Strictly adhere to the Geneva Conventions regarding the humane treatment of all prisoners of war. Investigate and prosecute any reported violations swiftly and transparently to maintain international credibility and moral standing. Document and publicize Russian violations rigorously for international legal bodies.
• Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage. All offensive and defensive operations must be conducted with strict adherence to the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution. The shelling of residential areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and drone attacks on civilian vehicles and hospitals, requires careful monitoring and documentation.

Resource Allocation and Logistics

• Air Defense Munitions: Immediately assess current inventories and resupply rates for air defense interceptors, prioritizing those effective against Shahed and other UAVs, especially for high-threat areas like Myrhorod and Kyiv.
• Drone Systems: Allocate significant resources to the procurement and maintenance of both defensive and offensive drone systems. Prioritize the development of domestic drone production to reduce reliance on external suppliers. Expedite crowdfunding efforts.
• Medical Supplies: Ensure sustained supply of medical equipment and personnel to frontline units and military hospitals, given the ongoing intensity of combat and reported casualties. Prioritize rapid medical evacuation capabilities.
• Protective Equipment: Ensure sufficient personal protective equipment for all personnel, including anti-drone blankets.

Communication and Coordination

• Allied Communication: Maintain secure and real-time communication channels with key international partners to coordinate military assistance and diplomatic responses. Leverage insights from major exercises like Defender 25 to improve interoperability. Provide real-time updates on Russian naval posture in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean. Emphasize the urgency of sanctions and aid given Russian statements on negotiations. Proactively share intelligence on Russian cyber threats against NATO border infrastructure.
• Internal Coordination: Enhance inter-branch and inter-unit communication to optimize air defense responses and ground operations, especially during large-scale aerial attacks and border incursions. Improve OPSEC awareness and implementation across all levels of command. Ensure clear communication of negotiation priorities between the political and military leadership.

Learning and Adaptation

• Drone Tactics Analysis: Continuously analyze evolving Russian drone tactics and adapt Ukrainian defensive and offensive strategies accordingly. This includes examining the use of EW, new drone types, their trajectories, and their integration with other assets for targeting. Integrate lessons learned from massive overnight drone attacks to improve air defense effectiveness.
• Intelligence Feedback Loop: Establish a robust feedback loop from frontline commanders to intelligence analysts to refine threat assessments and improve predictive models based on real-time combat experience.
• Propaganda Analysis: Systematically analyze Russian propaganda content for insights into Russian morale, perceived strengths, operational tactics, and target audiences. Monitor internal Russian issues for their impact on public opinion and resource allocation.
• OPSEC Review: Conduct immediate and thorough reviews of OPSEC failures, particularly concerning training camps and troop concentrations near border areas. Implement adaptive measures to mitigate future risks.
• Humanitarian Impact Assessment: Continuously assess the humanitarian impact of the conflict, particularly in heavily shelled areas and those affected by drone attacks, to inform aid efforts and diplomatic messaging.