Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Update: May 22, 2025, 05:53 UTC

Major Updates

• Intensified Russian Aerial Campaign & Ukrainian Air Defense:

  • Escalating Moscow Drone Attacks: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin initially reported 12 downed UAVs, now updated to 28 repelled drones approaching Moscow. Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK over various regions, including 9 over the Moscow region, further highlighting persistent Ukrainian deep drone attacks and Russian air defense efforts. The number of downed drones near Moscow specifically is reported as 22, with the total over Moscow reaching 28. A new report from the Russian MoD states 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions, with 35 over the Moscow region, indicating a substantial increase in claimed interceptions.
  • Widespread Drone Activity in Ukraine: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs are reported:
    • New groups from the Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts.
    • New groups detected in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv.
    • Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
    • Three UAVs reported heading towards Sloviansk were "minus" (shot down/neutralized).
    • Ongoing counter-reconnaissance efforts reported near Veselynove targeting an enemy reconnaissance drone.
    • New reports confirm a group of Russian strike UAVs active in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, indicating ongoing Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian territory.
    • Further groups of strike UAVs from Sumy Oblast are heading towards Romny, Nedryhailiv, Terny, Mykolaivka, with trajectories towards Poltava/Chernihiv Oblasts, and specifically towards Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast), a known military air base.
    • A new group of UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast is heading towards Mena and Nizhyn.
    • Multiple groups of UAVs are now reported moving through Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast.
    • Air raid alert declared for Kyiv due to drone threat. Kyiv Military Administration confirmed drones approaching Kyiv, with potential air defense activity.
    • Groups of Shahed drones from Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts are reportedly moving towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense Success in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian Air Defense forces shot down 11 Russian UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night.
  • Ballistic Missile Threat Cleared: The previously reported ballistic missile threat across Zaporizhzhia Oblast and towards Dnipro has been declared over. Explosions were reported near Kamenske.
  • EW Station Destruction Claim: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast using a precision drone strike. This, if verified, represents a significant degradation of Ukrainian EW capabilities and highlights advanced Russian drone operational capabilities.
  • Confirmed Drone Acquisition by Russian Forces: A video from "Archangel Spetsnaz" explicitly shows Russian forces receiving and demonstrating a DJI Mavic 3 Pro drone and associated drone-dropped munitions, obtained through crowdfunding. The unit states its purpose is "conducting reconnaissance during daylight hours, detecting the enemy, and swiftly destroying him," indicating immediate integration of intelligence and strike capabilities. This underscores the reliance on and effectiveness of commercial drones in tactical operations and the role of public fundraising.
  • Russian Drone Attack Impact in Tula: The Governor of Tula confirmed that two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack. The Governor of Tula further stated that Russian air defense is repelling the 10th wave of Ukrainian aerial attacks on the region, with one drone impacting a residential building and debris damaging other buildings. Debris from a UAV reportedly fell near the "Oruzheynik" sports complex in Tula, with a warning that parts may contain explosives.
  • Russian Air Defense in Smolensk Oblast: Russian air defense forces destroyed three UAVs in Gagarin district, Smolensk Oblast. This number is confirmed again in the latest updates.
  • Damage to Russian Defense Enterprise: Ukrainian sources claim a probable hit on NPO Basalt in Moscow, an enterprise working for the Russian defense industry and producing aviation bombs and other weapons.
  • Massive Drone Attack on Russia: Russian sources claim over 200 Ukrainian drones were shot down over various regions (Black Sea/Crimea, Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Smolensk, Moscow, Ryazan, Belgorod, Tula, Kaluga, Republic, Lipetsk, Vladimir Oblasts), indicating a widespread, sustained Ukrainian drone offensive aimed at paralyzing civilian airports and probing Russian air defenses. Minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast, was reported. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions, with 35 over the Moscow region, 42 over Kursk, 14 over Belgorod, 8 over Oryol, 2 over Kaluga, and one each over Ryazan and Tula.

• Russian Internal Developments & Human Capital Management:

  • "Time of Heroes" Program: Russia has identified and selected 85 participants for the second cohort of the presidential "Time of Heroes" program, focusing on leveraging combat experience for leadership development.
  • Judicial Commentary: The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, commented on violence in media and rising crime among teenagers. Bastrykin also expressed support for mandatory viewing of Soviet cinema in schools, citing their portrayal of "true spiritual and moral values," and stated that the national idea should be enshrined in the Constitution based on traditional values. He also stated that artificial intelligence will not replace human investigators, particularly for on-site work and complex analysis. This indicates a state-level concern with societal influence and a drive to control information and shape national identity, while retaining human oversight in critical legal processes. The investigation into the bombing of former SBU officer Prozorov's car has concluded, with final charges pressed against the suspects.
  • Control over Border Regions: Apti Alaudinov stated that the territories of Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts are entirely under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian counterattacks have failed.
  • Putin's Engagement in Kursk: A photo message indicates Russian President Putin met with municipal heads and volunteers in Kursk Oblast, emphasizing societal cohesion and public involvement as factors for success in border regions.
  • Domestic Law Enforcement: Police in Khabarovsk Krai initiated a criminal case for illegal drug trafficking against a 21-year-old, seizing approximately 200 grams of mephedrone. Recent reports also detail police operations in Khabarovsk Krai targeting illegal fishing of endangered sturgeon, resulting in arrests and release of fish.
  • Demographic Projections in Russia: A report projects a decrease in the number of students in Russian schools from 18 million (2024) to 16.3 million (2028).
  • Birth Rate KPI for Regional Heads: Tatyana Golikova announced that birth rate will be a key performance indicator (KPI) for Russian regional heads starting in 2026, with 13 billion rubles annually allocated for achieving targets. This signifies a significant state effort to address Russia's demographic challenges.
  • Russian Land Forces Commander-in-Chief Appointment: Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov presented Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces, replacing General of the Army Oleg Salyukov. Belousov lauded Mordvichev's combat experience during the "special military operation," highlighting the appointment of a combat-proven officer to a key leadership role.
  • Scandal in Vologda Oblast: A scandal involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO" led to the dismissal of the official, with a potential military member to be appointed to the position.
  • Internal Security Issues: Reports of mass detentions (67 people) after conflicts between teenagers in Makhachkala, Dagestan, and a measles outbreak at Moscow State University. A state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to crop damage from frosts. Migration issues in Perm Krai are also being analyzed.

• Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Export: Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that the first foreign customer of the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter jet will begin its operation in 2025.

• Russian Information Operations:

  • POW Abuse Allegations: A Russian serviceman ("Karp") claimed extensive physical and religious abuse while in Ukrainian captivity, framed by an "International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis."
  • Sanctions Impact Narrative: Rybar comments on the EU's 17th and 18th sanctions packages, claiming they will disproportionately harm European businesses. Archangel Spetsnaz also commented on new EU sanctions, highlighting their perceived absurdity (sanctioning a museum for donating a generator) and linking them to "destabilizing the negotiation process."
  • Trump's Influence/Narrative: Rodion Miroshnik claims Ukraine continues attacks on Russian territory despite renewed Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, suggesting Ukraine is trying to "please different masters." Russian sources interpret former US President Trump's statements about Russia "winning" and the US potentially yielding its role in settlement to Europe as a major victory for Russia and a weakening of the united front against it. WSJ reports Trump informed EU leaders privately that Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning.
  • Mariupol Commemoration & Historical Narrative: Mikhail Piotrovsky, Director of the State Hermitage Museum, advocated for local museums to become central in presenting Russia's complete military history, including a "museum of liberation of Kursk Oblast from the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
  • Claimed Capture and Interrogation of Ukrainian Combatants: A video shared by Colonelcassad, with the watermark "ГОЙДА КОМПАНИ," depicts Russian-aligned soldiers interrogating and handling apparently wounded or captured Ukrainian combatants, showcasing claimed battlefield success.
  • US Senator Lindsey Graham's Statement on China and Russia: US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham threatened China and other nations, stating that the vast majority of the US Senate believes Putin avoids real negotiations because he thinks the US and its allies will eventually break. He implied that continued support for Russia's oil economy by these nations would be a serious mistake.
  • Propaganda Highlighting Russian Military Feats: Several new videos from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" highlight claimed "feats of warriors at the front," showcasing successful attacks on Ukrainian strongholds (featuring Lt. Vladimir Yadrov), defensive artillery actions (featuring Guards Sergeant Yevgeny Varlamov disrupting flanking maneuvers), and the dangers of FPV drones to Russian logistics (featuring Private Vitaliy Kharlampiev). These serve to boost morale and legitimize Russian actions.
  • POW Confession: TASS reports that a captured Ukrainian serviceman confessed to killing Berkut officers with Molotov cocktails in 2014. This is a clear information operation aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian personnel and actions related to the Euromaidan events.
  • Russian Military-Industrial Complex Promotion: Colonelcassad shared a video showcasing the unveiling of a new vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) fixed-wing drone named "Juliet" by the State Military-Industrial Committee (Госкомвоенпром) at MILEX-2025. This drone is designed for target search, detection, and precise targeting, capable of carrying up to 50 kg payload for up to 10 hours. This highlights Russia's (and Belarus's) ongoing efforts to develop advanced drone systems, potentially with Iranian collaboration.
  • Rybar's Daily Summary: Rybar provided a summary for May 21, claiming Russian advances on the Novopavlovsk direction, reaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. It also reports a massive drone attack on Russian rear and border regions, with 247 UAVs destroyed, causing minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast. It further states Russian forces are fighting on the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye (Seversk direction).
  • Alleged Russian Plan to Capture Sumy: Russian sources (ISW citing local official) indicate Putin may be planning to capture Sumy and Sumy Oblast for a "buffer zone," with a local official requesting to seize "at least Sumy." This is a significant claim regarding Russian territorial ambitions.
  • Russian Refusal to Sign Memorandum: Russian MFA Director of Legal Department, Maxim Musikhin, stated that a potential memorandum for peace with Ukraine would require new leadership in Ukraine, claiming Zelenskyy has lost legitimacy. This signals a continued hardline stance on negotiations from Russia.
  • Historical Narrative Reiteration: "Basurin o glavnom" posted historical context about the Dardanelles battle in 1807, highlighting Russian naval victory and tactical superiority. This is likely part of a broader information operation to bolster national pride and draw parallels with current military efforts.

• North Korean Military Incident: An accident occurred during the launch of a North Korean warship, as reported by Reuters citing KCNA.

• Bitcoin Price Update: The value of Bitcoin exceeded $110,000, setting a new historical maximum.

• Defender 25 Exercise: US Army Europe and Africa Command is conducting Defender 25, a series of three multinational exercises (Swift Response, Immediate Response, Saber Guardian) from May to June across Northern, Central, and Southeastern Europe, involving approximately 28,000 personnel from 29 nations. This large-scale exercise demonstrates rapid deployment capabilities, interoperability, and high-intensity conventional warfighting readiness.

• Poland's Patriot Missile Request: Poland has formally requested a batch of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for its Patriot systems from the US, with an estimated value of $5.8 billion, sent to the US Parliament on May 15. This signifies a significant enhancement of Polish air defense capabilities.

• Potential New Round of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations: The Wall Street Journal reports a new round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations could take place in the Vatican in mid-June. This suggests a new diplomatic initiative.

• Zaporizhzhia City Under Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert has been declared specifically for the city of Zaporizhzhia, indicating an immediate threat beyond the previous oblast-wide alert. The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has now been cleared. Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, targeting residential areas. Ukrainian reports detail 495 strikes by Russian forces on 13 frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 6 air strikes (KABs), 303 FPV drone attacks, 5 MLRS attacks, and 181 artillery strikes, resulting in 3 injured civilians and damage to 15 residential properties and a farming enterprise.

• Russian Nuclear Arsenal Figures: A Russian military blogger reports, citing BAS data, that Russia's total nuclear arsenal in 2025 is estimated at 5459 warheads, compared to 5177 for the US. This highlights a key aspect of Russia's strategic deterrent.

• Ground Combat - Claimed Ukrainian SAU Destruction: Colonelcassad shared a video showing the destroyed remains of a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer, reinforcing claims of battlefield success against Ukrainian armored vehicles.

  • Ukrainian Losses (General Staff Report): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 870 Russian personnel killed/wounded/captured over the past day, bringing the total to ~977,650. Additionally, 32 artillery systems, 105 UAVs, 4 tanks, 5 AFVs, and 99 vehicles/fuel tanks were reportedly destroyed. These are highly significant numbers, indicating continued high-intensity attrition warfare.
  • Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces are engaged in continued battles northwest of Dyleyevka, attempting to secure forest belts and countering Ukrainian drone control points. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point near Dyleyevka using artillery. Russian sources claim that a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attempted to penetrate Krymske, but their position was destroyed by Russian drone operators. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is transitioning into a "grey zone." Russian forces are continuing to storm a wide front on the Konstantinovka direction towards Popov Yar. Russian units of the "Vostok" group are liberating Otradnoye, engaging Ukrainian counterattacks with infantry and armored vehicles. Russian assault groups are consolidating positions in two northern and southern blocks in Zelenoye Polye and adjacent forest belts (1/3 of the settlement). Cleaning up the northern part of Novopol is complete, with fighting ongoing between the two settlements.
  • Sumy Oblast: Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, with 6 killed and over 10 wounded, leading to calls for dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment and multiple artillery pieces. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east, and a missile strike in Kholodnohirsky district damaged 8 private houses, injuring 2 people (acute stress reaction). Russian forces attempted counterattacks near Zagryzovo, losing about 40 personnel and a tank.
  • Kursk Oblast (Russia): Putin stated Ukrainian forces attempt to cross the border daily. Russian air defense claims large numbers of Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (135 total between 04:00-18:00 MSK) over Kursk and surrounding regions. Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put with destruction of BMPs and Stryker APCs. Ukrainian drone attacks wounded two elderly men in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts. Russian sources report a Ukrainian column of 3 BMPs (including a "Bradley") and 1 Stryker APC moved from Pavlovka (Sumy) towards Novy Put and was destroyed on the march.
  • Belgorod Oblast (Russia): A civilian was wounded by a drone attacking a moving car in Shebekino, resulting in traumatic arm amputation. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack. Other areas like Razumnoye, Dvuluchnoye, Zozuli, Voznesenovka, and Alekseevka are under attack.
  • Kherson Oblast: Two people were injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson Military Administration confirming the attack and noting route changes due to high drone activity. Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson hit a multi-story building and injured two civilians. The number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5, leading to a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Russian drone attacks on the local hospital in Kakhovka injured one man.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Pro-Russian sources claim elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the Novonikolaevka area; Ukrainian authorities deny this as a fake. Russian drone attacks damaged an industrial enterprise in Pavlohrad, causing several fires. In Nikopol and Marganetska community, artillery and FPV drones damaged 4 private houses and power lines. A kamikaze drone hit a car in Mezhevska community.
  • Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian DRG activity (up to 10 people) deep inside the region, causing extensive rumors.

• Black Sea & Azov Sea Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships present in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three enemy ships are in the Mediterranean Sea, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity. Traffic through the Kerch Strait included 2 vessels from the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus and 3 vessels from the Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction).

• Earthquake Near Crete: A 6.2 magnitude earthquake was recorded off the coast of the Greek island of Crete.

• Israeli Embassy Incident in Washington: CBS News reports that two Israeli embassy employees in the US were killed in Washington. Former US President Trump described the shooting as "based on antisemitism." Police in Washington detained the suspect in the shooting near the Metropolitan Jewish Museum.

• Russian Economic Report: "Kommersant" reports sharp price increases for onions (87.2%) and cabbage (56.8%) in Russia over the past year, citing reduced harvests and lower quality produce. This suggests internal economic pressures and potential food security concerns.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Currently under renewed significant drone threat for all districts, especially Zavodsky. New groups of UAVs are reported from the Black Sea heading towards the coast. Drones are approaching Voskresenske, Kulbakino, Kryvyi Rih, Radsad, Matveevka, Raketka, Central District, Meshkovo-Pogorelovo, Korabelny district, Galitsinovo, Kozyrka, Koblevo, Ochakov, and Kutsurub. An explosion was reported in Mykolaiv, consistent with ongoing drone interceptions. Air defense is active. Counter-reconnaissance efforts reported near Veselynove targeting an enemy reconnaissance drone.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Suffered a missile strike in Kholodnohirsky district, damaging 8 private houses and injuring 2 people (acute stress reaction). Multiple new groups of attack UAVs are active, heading through Balakliia towards Barvinkove, and in the Lozova area towards Dobropolye. New groups of strike UAVs are reported in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian EW station in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Russian forces attempted counterattacks near Zagryzovo, losing about 40 personnel and a tank. Clashes are reported near Vovchansk and towards Kutkivka, with Russian aviation strikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
• Donetsk Oblast: Drones are heading towards Konstantinovka (from Dobropolye area) and Kramatorsk (from Barvinkove and Izium areas). Drones from Kharkiv Oblast are now moving towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces claim destruction of equipment and communication assets near Novoukrainka. Three UAVs were reported heading towards Sloviansk, but have since been neutralized by Ukrainian forces. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Krasnoarmeysk direction using artillery. Rybar reports Russian forces fighting on the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye (Seversk direction). Russian forces are engaged in continued battles northwest of Dyleyevka, attempting to secure forest belts and countering Ukrainian drone control points. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point near Dyleyevka using artillery. Russian sources claim that a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attempted to penetrate Krymske, but their position was destroyed by Russian drone operators. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is transitioning into a "grey zone." Russian forces are continuing to storm a wide front on the Konstantinovka direction towards Popov Yar. Russian units of the "Vostok" group are liberating Otradnoye, engaging Ukrainian counterattacks with infantry and armored vehicles. Russian assault groups are consolidating positions in two northern and southern blocks in Zelenoye Polye and adjacent forest belts (1/3 of the settlement). Cleaning up the northern part of Novopol is complete, with fighting ongoing between the two settlements. A man in Horlivka was injured by an explosive dropped from a Ukrainian drone onto a car.
• Kryvyi Rih District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Drones are reported flying towards this area from the south. The local administration reports no shelling in Kryvyi Rih district. Planned industrial explosions at ArcelylorMittal Kryvyi Rih and PivNGZK will occur at 12:00 and 13:00 today (May 22).
• Kherson Oblast: Groups of Shahed drones are passing through, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Ukrainian media "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Kherson, indicating continued military activity in the city. Two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson MVA confirming the attack and route changes due to high drone activity. Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson hit a multi-story building and injured two civilians. The number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5, leading to a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Russian drones attacked the local hospital in Kakhovka, injuring one man. Russian forces shelled Nova Kakhovka, Vasylivka, Oleshky, Kardashynka, Knyaz-Hryhorivka, Lyubimivka, Pishchanivka, Rybalche, and Solontsi.
• Odesa Oblast: New groups of UAVs are reported from the Sea heading towards its coast.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: A new air raid alert was declared across the entire oblast due to the threat of ballistic weaponry from the southeast. The ballistic threat has now been cleared, and the oblast-wide air raid alert is cleared. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck, two UAV control points, and one stationary EW station in the Huliaipole, Marfopil, and Luhove areas. The city of Zaporizhzhia is now under a specific air raid alert. Frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under Russian shelling since dawn, targeting residential areas. Over the past day, 495 strikes by Russian forces on 13 frontline communities, including 6 air strikes (KABs) on Huliaipole, Novoandriivka, Chervone, Novodarivka; 303 FPV drone attacks on Mar'ivka, Magdalynivka, Prymorske, Kam'yanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka; 5 MLRS attacks on Stepnohirsk, Huliaipole, Novodarivka, Novodanylivka; and 181 artillery strikes on Kam'yanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka. Three civilians (55-year-old woman, two 50-year-old men) injured. 15 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and a farming enterprise.
• Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): A missile was reported heading in the direction of Dnipro. The missile threat has now been cleared. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 11 Russian UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night. Russian drone attacks damaged an industrial enterprise in Pavlohrad, causing several fires. In Nikopol and Marganetska community, artillery and FPV drones damaged 4 private houses and power lines. A kamikaze drone hit a car in Mezhevska community.
• Kamenske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Impact of ballistic missile reported nearby. The ballistic threat has now been cleared.
• Tula Oblast (Russia): Drone debris reported fallen. Two people injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged due to UAV attack. The Governor of Tula stated that air defense is repelling the 10th wave of Ukrainian aerial attacks. Debris from a UAV reportedly fell near the "Oruzheynik" sports complex, with a warning that parts may contain explosives. The Russian MoD claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over Tula Oblast. ASTRA reports 10 UAVs over Tula Oblast.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region, with Mayor Sobyanin confirming 12 downed UAVs. Mayor Sobyanin now reports 28 enemy UAVs were repelled on approach to Moscow, indicating an increased scale of attempted attacks. Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 9 Ukrainian UAVs over the Moscow region, and 22 total over Moscow. New MoD reports claim 35 UAVs over the Moscow region and a total of 105 across Russia. Domodedovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. Ukrainian sources claim possible hit on NPO Basalt. Vnukovo Airport warned of delays due to flight restrictions, which have now been lifted.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region (77 total). Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian DRG activity (up to 10 people) deep inside the region, causing extensive rumors. The Russian MoD claims 77 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports 1 UAV shot down over Bryansk Oblast. AV BogomaZ reports 1 UAV shot down over Bryansk Oblast.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region (77 total, 14 over Belgorod). Russian forces claim full control over Belgorod Oblast. A civilian was wounded by a drone attacking a moving car in Shebekino, resulting in traumatic arm amputation. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack. Other areas like Razumnoye, Dvuluchnoye, Zozuli, Voznesenovka, and Alekseevka are under attack. The Russian MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports 11 UAVs over Belgorod Oblast.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Referenced in discussions about a future "museum of liberation" focusing on Russian military history. Russian forces claim full control over Kursk Oblast, and President Putin visited the region. Russian sources are using this region for information operations. Russian MoD claims 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks wounded two elderly men in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts. Russian sources report a Ukrainian column of 3 BMPs (including a "Bradley") and 1 Stryker APC moved from Pavlovka (Sumy) towards Novy Put and was destroyed on the march. Positional battles are reported near Sudzha. The Russian MoD claims 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kursk Oblast. ASTRA reports 12 UAVs over Kursk Oblast.
• Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast): Several groups of UAVs are reported moving towards Chuhuiv. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
• Novoukrainka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian equipment and communication assets.
• Sloviansk (Donetsk Oblast): Three UAVs were reported flying towards Sloviansk, but have since been neutralized by Ukrainian forces.
• Veselynove (Mykolaiv Oblast): Counter-reconnaissance operations are reportedly underway targeting enemy reconnaissance drones.
• Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Domestic law enforcement activity reported (drug trafficking arrest and anti-poaching operations).
• Poltava Oblast: New groups of Russian strike UAVs active, heading towards Poltava Oblast from Sumy Oblast, specifically towards Myrhorod. Groups of Shahed drones from Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts are reportedly moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. Drones are heading towards Hlobyne and Myrhorod.
• Chernihiv Oblast: New groups of Russian strike UAVs active, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast from Sumy Oblast, specifically towards Mena and Nizhyn. Multiple groups of UAVs are now reported moving through Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. Groups of Shahed drones from Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts are reportedly moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. Drones are moving past Desna towards Kyiv Oblast.
• Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Oryol Oblast. Rybar reports minor damage to a semiconductor factory in Bolokhovo, Oryol Oblast, due to a drone attack. The Russian MoD claims 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Oryol Oblast. ASTRA reports 14 UAVs over Oryol Oblast.
• Kaluga Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga Oblast. The Russian MoD claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga Oblast. ASTRA reports 9 UAVs over Kaluga Oblast.
• Ryazan Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over Ryazan Oblast. The Russian MoD claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over Ryazan Oblast.
• Smolensk Oblast (Russia): Three UAVs destroyed in Gagarin district. ASTRA reports 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast.
• Mediterranean Sea: Three Russian ships present, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier with an 8-missile volley capacity.
• Kerch Strait: 2 vessels passed from Black Sea towards Bosphorus; 3 vessels passed from Azov Sea (2 from Bosphorus direction).
• Kyiv Oblast: New reports of drone groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv Oblast. Air raid alert declared for Kyiv and several oblasts due to drone threat. Kyiv Military Administration confirmed drones approaching Kyiv, with possible air defense activity. Explosions heard in Kyiv. KiberBoroshno is running a crowdfunding campaign for Kyiv's defense.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces are actively targeting Ukrainian reserves near the Sumy border, claiming destruction of communication nodes, equipment concentrations, a refueling point, mobile reserves, and logistical nodes, as well as suppression of enemy strongholds and elimination of a sabotage group through drone operations. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, with 6 killed and over 10 wounded servicemen, and subsequent calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief.
• Kakhovka (Kherson Oblast): Russian drone attacks on the local hospital injured one man.
• Cherkasy Oblast: Groups of Shahed drones from Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts are reportedly moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. Drones are heading towards Kaniv and Drabiv.
• Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Two Mayors reports 7 UAVs shot down over Voronezh Oblast.
• Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): ASTRA and Two Mayors report 3 UAVs shot down over Lipetsk Oblast.

Strategic Outlook

The immediate outlook is dominated by Russia's continued and intensified aerial campaign, particularly multi-directional drone attacks across Ukraine, which aim to overwhelm air defenses and inflict widespread damage. The significant escalation of drone attacks on Moscow, resulting in casualties and infrastructure damage in Tula and potential impact on a defense enterprise, suggests Ukraine's persistent capability and intent to strike targets deep within Russian territory, posing a substantial challenge to Russian air defenses and potentially impacting public morale. The increased number of claimed interceptions by Russian air defense (105 UAVs overnight, 35 over Moscow region) indicates a persistent and large-scale Ukrainian deep strike strategy. The initial ballistic missile threats to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro underscore Russia's persistent long-range strike capability, though these specific alerts have now been cleared. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant portion of these drones, including the neutralization of UAVs heading towards Sloviansk and ongoing counter-reconnaissance in Mykolaiv Oblast, and the reported downing of 11 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlights the ongoing critical air defense battle and active drone warfare. Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian EW station in Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, indicate an ongoing effort to degrade Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities, which could impact Ukrainian drone operations and communications. The claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and communication assets near Novoukrainka and elsewhere further points to Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian operational capabilities. The visible use of commercially available drones for both reconnaissance and strike by Russian units, funded through public donations, highlights the adaptable nature of modern warfare and the decentralized procurement efforts. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" SAU, if verified, indicates continued Russian focus on degrading Ukrainian ground assets. The daily reported Ukrainian General Staff losses for Russia, particularly personnel, artillery, and UAVs, suggest continued high attrition.

The emerging Russian narrative regarding the capture of Sumy and Sumy Oblast for a "buffer zone," linked to Putin's visit to Kursk, is a significant strategic development signaling explicit Russian territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas. This, coupled with Russia's refusal to sign a peace memorandum with the current Ukrainian leadership, indicates a hardened stance on negotiations and a long-term intention for continued military pressure and territorial gains. This directly counters previous Western hopes for a negotiated settlement based on existing lines. The Wall Street Journal reporting that Trump informed EU leaders that Putin is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning further reinforces the assessment of Russia's intent for prolonged conflict and its belief in achieving military objectives.

Russia's internal focus on human capital management through the "Time of Heroes" program and the new birth rate KPIs suggests a long-term strategic investment in developing military and civilian leadership from combat veterans and addressing demographic challenges, which can enhance overall state effectiveness and morale. The highly publicized visit of President Putin to Kursk Oblast, emphasizing national unity, also points to a strategic effort to solidify public support for ongoing military operations and claims of territorial control in border regions. The conclusion of the Prozorov case further indicates Russia's focus on internal security and targeting of perceived threats. Bastrykin's push for Soviet cinema in schools and for enshrining national values in the constitution is a clear ideological move to reinforce state-approved narratives and moral values. His comments on AI limitations for investigative work emphasize the continued importance of human judgment. The appointment of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, a combat-proven officer, as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces signals a strategic shift towards leveraging direct combat experience in high command. Russia's escalating information operations, including new claims about "neo-fascist manifestations" in Kursk and the claimed POW confession, aim to reinforce justifications for the conflict and delegitimize Ukrainian forces. The comprehensive sharing of "moments from the SVO" by Russian military bloggers serves as a significant information operation to maintain morale, recruit, and project an image of strength. The unveiling of the "Juliet" VTOL drone signifies continued investment in advanced military technology, potentially with international cooperation, to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Rybar's report of Russian advances on the Novopavlovsk direction, reaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates continued ground pressure and the threat of expanding operational areas. The reported price increases for basic food items in Russia suggest growing internal economic pressures that could impact public morale and stability.

The ongoing information warfare, as evidenced by Russian narratives on sanctions, historical interpretations, claimed POW abuse, and battlefield successes (including claimed capture of Ukrainian combatants), remains a critical strategic front. These efforts aim to erode Western unity, justify Russian actions, bolster domestic support, and demonize Ukrainian forces. Ukraine must maintain robust counter-narratives and continue to highlight Russian aggression and war crimes. US Senator Lindsey Graham's statement regarding China's support for Russia and the need for a swift end to the conflict indicates continued high-level diplomatic pressure from the United States and a focus on international cooperation in addressing the conflict. The first export of Russia's Su-57E fighter jet also indicates Russia's continued arms export capabilities and influence in the global arms market. Russia's reported nuclear arsenal figures highlight its strategic deterrent capabilities. The incident at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, and its categorization as antisemitic terrorism by Trump, adds another layer of geopolitical complexity and a reminder of global extremist threats, though its direct military relevance to Ukraine is limited.

The ongoing "Defender 25" exercises in Europe are a significant strategic signal from the US and NATO allies, demonstrating collective defense capabilities, rapid deployment, and interoperability. This reinforces deterrence and provides a counter-signal to Russian aggression. Poland's substantial request for Patriot missiles further underscores the heightened security concerns in Europe and a commitment to bolstering air defenses. The reported potential for new negotiations in the Vatican in mid-June introduces a new diplomatic avenue, though its success will depend on the sincerity and flexibility of both parties. The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a positive development for immediate naval security, but the continued presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean maintains a long-range threat.

Overall, the situation points to continued high-intensity conventional and unconventional warfare, with a strong emphasis on the air domain and the ongoing adaptation of technological solutions by both sides. Continued Ukrainian air defense efforts remain paramount to mitigating Russia's aerial superiority, while strategic communication and human capital development remain critical for both sides. The direct impact of Ukrainian deep drone strikes on Russian territory highlights an evolving dynamic in the conflict.

Strategic and Tactical Recommendations

1. Enhance Air Defense Resilience: Given the sustained and multi-directional nature of Russian drone attacks, prioritize the rapid deployment of additional short-to-medium range air defense systems, particularly in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava, Chernihiv, Cherkasy Oblasts, and now explicitly for Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia city and its frontline communities. Implement mobile air defense units to counter shifting drone trajectories and reconnaissance efforts. Focus particular attention on Myrhorod, Mena, and Nizhyn given the explicit drone trajectories towards these areas. Given the current activity, Kyiv's air defense needs immediate bolstering to manage the increased drone threat.

   • COA 1.1: Accelerated Procurement & Integration: Expedite acquisition and integration of Western air defense systems (e.g., NASAMS, IRIS-T, Patriot components) and corresponding munitions. Prioritize systems capable of engaging a high volume of low-observable targets. Poland's Patriot missile request highlights the urgent need for such capabilities within allied nations.
   • COA 1.2: Distributed Defense & Counter-Reconnaissance: Enhance the "hunter-killer" drone teams for kinetic and electronic counter-drone operations, especially against reconnaissance UAVs (e.g., near Veselynove). Integrate these teams more tightly with conventional air defense networks.
   • COA 1.3: Civilian Protection Systems: Deploy additional mobile air raid shelters and ensure comprehensive early warning systems, particularly in heavily targeted urban centers and frontline areas. Given recent impacts in Tula and Dnipropetrovsk, public awareness campaigns on drone threat response should be intensified.

2. Counter-Drone Operations: Invest further in Ukrainian offensive drone capabilities, specifically FPV drones, to continue striking Russian equipment, communication assets (as claimed near Novoukrainka and Huliaipole), and to defend border regions (as demonstrated by the neutralization of UAVs near Sloviansk). Actively target and disrupt Russian drone procurement and operational networks, including those relying on crowdfunding and new drone models like the "Juliet" and "Baba Yaga." Continue deep strikes into Russian territory to impose costs and disrupt logistical/industrial targets, as demonstrated by the Tula and Oryol incidents. Focus on intelligence gathering regarding Russian drone development and supply chains, including the Iran-Russia strategic partnership. Emphasize the importance of crowdfunding efforts for drones, as noted by "CyberBoroshno" for Kyiv's defense.

   • COA 2.1: FPV Drone Production & Training: Increase domestic production of FPV drones and accelerate training programs for operators, emphasizing precision targeting of high-value enemy assets, including mobile targets like the pickup truck claimed by Russia.
   • COA 2.2: Electronic Warfare Countermeasures: Develop and deploy advanced electronic warfare systems to disrupt Russian drone operations, especially those used for reconnaissance and precision strikes (e.g., against their claimed EW station destruction). Counter-EW capabilities should also be prioritized against specific drone types and their operators, as highlighted in Russian propaganda.

3. Reinforce Frontline Defenses and Logistics: Anticipate continued Russian ground offensives, particularly on the Novopavlovsk direction towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and renewed pressure on Sumy Oblast, given the explicit claims of Russian territorial ambition. While information regarding the claimed capture and interrogation of Ukrainian combatants from Russian sources requires independent verification, it underscores the intensity of ground fighting and the need for robust defensive lines. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" SAU signifies the continued importance of artillery protection. Address vulnerabilities to FPV drone attacks on logistical convoys, as highlighted by Russian accounts. The substantial shelling in Zaporizhzhia Oblast requires bolstering local defenses and infrastructure. The reported damage to industrial and residential areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates persistent Russian pressure.

   • COA 3.1: Fortification & Reserve Deployment: Strengthen existing defensive fortifications and ensure adequate reserve forces are strategically positioned to counter potential breakthroughs in critical sectors, including the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye, and areas around Dyleyevka, Krymske, and the Dzerzhynsk-St. Matrona of Moscow mine area in Donetsk. Reinforce border defenses in Sumy Oblast and other threatened regions, accounting for the alleged Russian intent to capture Sumy.
   • COA 3.2: Logistical Resilience: Diversify and harden supply lines for ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies to frontline units, accounting for deep strikes and continued aerial threats. Implement enhanced protection and evasive maneuvers for logistical vehicles against FPV drones. Review and address OPSEC failures, particularly for training camps near the border (e.g., Shostka incident).

4. Strategic Communication and Information Warfare: Counter Russian narratives and propaganda effectively, particularly claims regarding POW abuse, alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast, battlefield successes, the claimed POW confession, and the "USSR legally still exists" narrative. Refute Russian claims of territorial advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Challenge Russian narratives on the legitimacy of Ukrainian leadership to prevent undermining future peace efforts. Utilize statements from international partners (e.g., Senator Lindsey Graham) to bolster Ukrainian diplomatic efforts.

   • COA 4.1: Counter-Disinformation Campaigns: Proactively disseminate verified information regarding battlefield realities, Russian war crimes (especially the POW execution orders), and the ethical treatment of POWs. Use multi-platform communication strategies to reach international and domestic audiences. Expose Russian information operations that leverage imagery of their military personnel or equipment to project false narratives. Counter Russian claims of territorial ambitions, such as those regarding Sumy Oblast, with clear reaffirmations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Highlight Russian internal dissent and morale issues (e.g., Vologda scandal, comments about "Saval"). Address and frame the reported Russian economic issues (e.g., rising food prices) as consequences of the war.
   • COA 4.2: Diplomatic Engagement: Continue to leverage international forums and bilateral relations to pressure Russia's allies and further isolate Moscow. Actively engage with key international figures to counter Russian influence and narratives (e.g., those from former US President Trump, particularly his reported private assessment that Putin is not ready to end the war). Highlight the implications of the "Defender 25" exercise as a demonstration of allied resolve. Prepare for potential negotiations in the Vatican, ensuring a unified and firm negotiating position, while being mindful of Russian information operations regarding the status of such talks (e.g., Musikhin's statements on legitimacy). Emphasize the long-range Kalibr missile threat from the Mediterranean to allies.

5. Cybersecurity Posture: Maintain a high state of cyber readiness to defend critical infrastructure and military networks, especially in light of observed large-scale DDoS attacks on Russian state services, which could be a precursor or parallel to attacks on Ukrainian systems. The warning from the UK and allies about GRU cyberattacks targeting logistics networks for aid and NATO critical infrastructure necessitates immediate and robust countermeasures.

   • COA 5.1: Network Hardening & Proactive Defense: Implement continuous vulnerability assessments and penetration testing of all military and critical civilian infrastructure networks, particularly those involved in logistics and aid distribution. Proactively hunt for and neutralize advanced persistent threats.
   • COA 5.2: Threat Intelligence Sharing: Enhance collaboration with allied cyber intelligence agencies to share real-time threat intelligence and develop joint defensive strategies against sophisticated state-backed cyber threats.

Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• POW Treatment: Strictly adhere to the Geneva Conventions regarding the humane treatment of all prisoners of war. Investigate and prosecute any reported violations swiftly and transparently to maintain international credibility and moral standing. This is particularly relevant in light of Russian claims of POW abuse and the video depicting handling of captured Ukrainian combatants, as well as the new claimed POW confession and the intercepted Russian orders for POW executions. Document and publicize Russian violations rigorously for international legal bodies.
• Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage. All offensive and defensive operations must be conducted with strict adherence to the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution. The shelling of residential areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and drone attacks on civilian vehicles and hospitals, requires careful monitoring and documentation, including impacts on public health infrastructure.

Resource Allocation and Logistics

• Air Defense Munitions: Immediately assess current inventories and resupply rates for air defense interceptors, prioritizing those effective against Shahed and other UAVs, especially for high-threat areas like Myrhorod and Kyiv. Poland's significant Patriot missile request underscores the scale of required resources for air defense.
• Drone Systems: Allocate significant resources to the procurement and maintenance of both defensive and offensive drone systems, including their respective payloads and ground control stations. Prioritize the development of domestic drone production to reduce reliance on external suppliers. Expedite crowdfunding efforts for units like the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" and the 93rd Mechanized Brigade.
• Medical Supplies: Ensure sustained supply of medical equipment and personnel to frontline areas and military hospitals, given the ongoing intensity of combat and reported casualties. Prioritize rapid medical evacuation capabilities for forward units. This includes addressing impacts on civilian medical infrastructure in targeted areas like Kakhovka and injuries in Tula.
• Protective Equipment: Ensure sufficient personal protective equipment for all personnel, including anti-drone blankets, to mitigate threats from FPV drones.

Communication and Coordination

• Allied Communication: Maintain secure and real-time communication channels with key international partners to coordinate military assistance and diplomatic responses. Leverage insights from major exercises like Defender 25 to improve interoperability. Provide real-time updates on Russian naval posture in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean. Emphasize the urgency of sanctions and aid given Russian statements on negotiations.
• Internal Coordination: Enhance inter-branch and inter-unit communication to optimize air defense responses and ground operations, especially during large-scale aerial attacks and border incursions. Improve OPSEC awareness and implementation across all levels of command.

Learning and Adaptation

• Drone Tactics Analysis: Continuously analyze evolving Russian drone tactics and adapt Ukrainian defensive and offensive strategies accordingly. This includes examining the use of EW, new drone types (e.g., "Juliet"), their trajectories, and their integration with other assets for targeting. Analyze counter-drone successes (e.g., "STING interceptor drone" and "zenith FPV drone").
• Intelligence Feedback Loop: Establish a robust feedback loop from frontline commanders to intelligence analysts to refine threat assessments and improve predictive models based on real-time combat experience, especially from areas experiencing intense ground combat and heavy drone activity.
• Propaganda Analysis: Systematically analyze Russian propaganda content (e.g., "feats of warriors," claimed POW confessions, narratives on Sumy, Musikhin's statements, historical narratives, Trump's statements) for insights into Russian morale, perceived strengths, operational tactics, and target audiences. Monitor internal Russian issues (e.g., Tula drone damage, Oryol factory damage, Vologda scandal, internal military complaints about "Saval," economic reports on food prices) for their impact on public opinion and resource allocation.
• OPSEC Review: Conduct immediate and thorough reviews of OPSEC failures, particularly concerning training camps and troop concentrations near border areas. Implement adaptive measures to mitigate future risks.

Current Situation Update:

The situation remains highly active across multiple fronts, with a particular emphasis on the continuing and expanding drone warfare impacting both Ukrainian and Russian territories.

Drone Warfare Escalation:

• Massive Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russia: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims a staggering 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions from 00:00 to 05:30 MSK. This includes a significant concentration of 35 UAVs over the Moscow region, further highlighting the persistent and large-scale nature of Ukrainian deep drone attacks. Other affected regions include Oryol (14 UAVs), Kursk (12 UAVs), Belgorod (11 UAVs), Tula (10 UAVs), Kaluga (9 UAVs), Voronezh (7 UAVs), Lipetsk (3 UAVs), Smolensk (3 UAVs), and Bryansk (1 UAV). This represents a widespread, sustained Ukrainian offensive aimed at probing Russian air defenses and imposing costs. Some previous reports indicated 28 drones over Moscow, but the newest MoD statement provides a much higher number for Moscow and overall.
• Ongoing Russian Drone Activity in Ukraine: The threat to Kyiv is confirmed, with enemy drones reportedly directly over the capital, prompting air raid alerts and sounds of explosions. This indicates continued and potentially intensified Russian aerial operations targeting Ukrainian urban centers, necessitating immediate air defense responses. Ukrainian sources confirm the drone threat over Kyiv, urging residents to stay in shelters.
• Confirmed Drone Impact in Tula: The Governor of Tula has confirmed that two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings were damaged in Tula due to a UAV attack, with one drone impacting the roof of a multi-story building. This verifies successful Ukrainian strikes and their immediate impact on Russian territory.
• Drone Debris in Kyiv: Ukrainian authorities (Kyiv City Military Administration) reported that debris from an enemy UAV fell on the territory of a school in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv. Fortunately, there were no casualties or fires. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian areas in Kyiv.

Ground Combat and Border Incursions:

• Donetsk Front: Russian forces continue offensive actions, claiming advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a significant territorial claim, indicating sustained Russian pressure and successful maneuvers. The text also details "positional battles" on the Zaporozhye front, particularly around Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, Shcherbakov, and Kamenskoye, with no significant changes to the Line of Combat Contact (LBS). Additionally, a Russian military expert, Marochko, stated that Russian forces had recaptured several Ukrainian positions near Verkhnokamyanske in the DPR over the past few days, indicating localized tactical gains.
• Chasov Yar Direction: Russian forces report advances north of Chasov Yar, specifically near the Seversky Donets – Donbass Canal, with fighting continuing within the city. They are accumulating forces for further offensives, while Ukrainian forces are bringing up reserves, utilizing drone superiority and natural concealment.
• Sumy Direction: Russia claims repelling another Ukrainian border breakthrough attempt near Noviy Put, with Ukraine losing several armored vehicles and personnel. This indicates ongoing cross-border incursions and active defensive operations by Russia in the border regions. Russian forces also claim further advances in Loknya, Sumy Oblast.
• Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian attempts to advance in Vovchansk, Kamianka, and Mala Shapkivka, indicating persistent Russian pressure but successful Ukrainian defense. The head of the Kharkiv ODA, Oleh Syniehubov, provided a detailed report on Russian strikes on Kharkiv city and 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, involving 1 missile, 10 KABs, 5 Shahed UAVs, 2 Geran-2 UAVs, and 2 Molniya UAVs. These strikes caused 1 fatality (a man in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi) and 6 injuries (women aged 60, 63, 68 in Kharkiv; a 39-year-old man in Hrushivka; women aged 66, 70 in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi; and women aged 73, 44 in Kupiansk). Extensive damage was reported to 10 private houses, a car, gas and electricity networks in Kharkiv; an administrative building and a car in Chuhuiv district; and 44 houses, an administrative building, a lyceum building, and a factory in Kupiansk district.
• Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the areas of Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk, demonstrating intense pressure on this front.
• Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled 19 Russian attacks in settlements such as Bagatyr, Odrane, Shevchenko, Vesele, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Vilne Pole.
• Huliaipilskyi Direction: Russian forces attempted three unsuccessful advances towards Ukrainian positions near Vysoke.
• Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks in Shcherbaky, Stepove, and towards Pavlivka.
• Dnipro River Direction: Russian units attempted one advance but were unsuccessful.

Diplomatic & Political:

• Trump's Assessment of Putin: The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump privately told European leaders that Russian President Putin is not ready to end the war, as he believes he is winning. This marks a shift in Trump's public statements and suggests a hardened Russian stance, reinforcing the expectation of prolonged conflict.
• Israeli Embassy Incident: Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near the Jewish Museum in Washington. A suspect has been detained, and former US President Trump described the incident as based on antisemitism. Police have identified the suspect as 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago and believe he was the sole shooter. This is a significant geopolitical event, but not directly related to military operations in Ukraine.
• Russian Stance on Prisoner Exchange: A Russian State Duma committee head, Andrei Kartapolov, claimed that Kyiv does not have enough Russian POWs for a "1000 for 1000" exchange, suggesting that Ukraine is looking for non-military prisoners (teenagers, elderly, women) to make up the numbers. This is a clear information operation aimed at discrediting Ukraine's negotiation position on POWs and undermining morale.

Military Personnel and Logistics:

• Ukrainian Losses (General Staff): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 870 Russian personnel killed/wounded/captured over the past day, along with 4 tanks, 5 armored combat vehicles, 32 artillery systems, 105 UAVs, and 99 vehicles/fuel tanks destroyed. These figures underscore the continued high intensity of attrition warfare. The total number of daily combat engagements across all fronts was 144, with 54 of these on the Pokrovsk direction. The total numbers for the past day include 90 aviation strikes, 144 guided aerial bombs, 2492 kamikaze drones, and 5291 artillery shellings (114 MLRS strikes).
• Ukrainian Recruitment: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces is actively recruiting sappers, highlighting the ongoing need for specialized personnel to clear mines and unexploded ordnance.

Internal Russian Issues:

• Economic Strain: Reports indicate sharp price increases for essential food items (onions and cabbage) in Russia over the past year, suggesting internal economic pressures possibly due to reduced harvests and quality.
• Military Appointments: Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, a combat-experienced officer, has been appointed as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces. This indicates a strategic shift towards leveraging direct combat experience in high command.
• Internal Security Measures: A resident of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast was reportedly detained for actively using social media to promote radical views and calls for violent overthrow of the constitutional order and assassinating state officials, with a criminal case initiated under terrorism statutes. This highlights Russia's ongoing efforts to suppress internal dissent and control information.

Cybersecurity:

• Russian state services experienced large-scale outages, with the Federal Tax Service attributing it to DDoS attacks from abroad. This highlights ongoing cyber warfare activities.

Naval Update:

• The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian missile carriers or warships in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 22, 06:00 UTC. However, three Russian ships, including one "Kalibr" missile carrier (8-missile volley capacity), are in the Mediterranean Sea.

Additional Updates:

• Algeria joins BRICS bank: Algeria has completed its accession to the BRICS bank, becoming a full member, as reported by the head of the NDB, Dilma Rousseff. This is a geopolitical development related to international economic blocs.
• Ukrainian GUR Officer Interview: RBC-Ukraine published an interview with "Philosopher," an officer of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR MOD Ukraine), who coordinates "active action units" such as "Shamanbatu," "Kraken," and "Artan." The interview covers the nature of these units, their creation, and the evolution of Russian tactics, suggesting a strategic focus on intelligence operations and special forces.