Operational Intelligence Update: May 22, 2025, 01:23 UTC

Major Updates

• Russian Aerial Campaign:
  • New Ballistic Missile Threat: A new ballistic missile threat was declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast from the southeast, specifically reported heading towards Dnipro. Explosions linked to ballistic missile arrivals were reported near Kamenske. The threat has since been declared over.
  • Widespread Drone Activity: Multiple new groups of Russian Shahed and other UAVs are reported:
    • New groups from the Black Sea heading towards the coast of Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts.
    • New groups detected in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv.
    • Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK on Wednesday over various regions of Russia, including 9 over the Moscow region. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported another 4 UAVs shot down over Moscow, bringing the total of downed UAVs near Moscow to 12. New reports from Moscow Mayor Sobyanin indicate 16 enemy UAVs were repelled on approach to Moscow. This increases the claimed number of Ukrainian drones targeting the Russian capital.
  • EW Station Destruction Claim: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian "Anklav" Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Kharkiv Oblast using a precision drone strike. This, if verified, represents a significant degradation of Ukrainian EW capabilities in the area and highlights advanced Russian drone operational capabilities.
  • Continued Russian Drone Operations: Russian forces (14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, "Vostok" group) claim to have destroyed Ukrainian equipment and communication assets near Novoukrainka using UAV operators, further demonstrating their integrated drone operations.
• Russian Internal Developments & Human Capital Management:
  • "Time of Heroes" Program: Russia has identified and selected 85 participants for the second cohort of the presidential "Time of Heroes" program. This initiative focuses on leveraging the combat experience of military personnel, including 31 Heroes of Russia and 72 Cavaliers of the Order of Courage, for leadership development and integration into state structures. This is a significant strategic investment in human capital and a tool for boosting morale and solidifying support for ongoing military operations.
  • Judicial Commentary: The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, commented on the perceived overabundance of violence on television and the internet, linking it to rising crime rates among teenagers. Bastrykin also expressed support for mandatory viewing of Soviet cinema in schools, citing their portrayal of "true spiritual and moral values." This indicates a state-level concern with societal influence and potentially points to efforts to control information and shape national identity.
  • Control over Border Regions: Apti Alaudinov stated that the territories of Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts are entirely under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian counterattacks have failed. This is a claim of full territorial control and a rejection of Ukrainian advances.
  • Putin's Engagement in Kursk: A photo message indicates Russian President Putin met with municipal heads and volunteers in Kursk Oblast, emphasizing societal cohesion and public involvement as factors for success in border regions. This is a clear demonstration of high-level political engagement aimed at bolstering morale and projecting an image of national unity and strength in the face of perceived Ukrainian aggression.
  • Prozorov Case Conclusion: Investigation into the bombing of former SBU officer Prozorov's car has concluded, with final charges pressed against the suspects. This indicates progress in high-profile internal security cases in Russia.
• Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Export: Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that the first foreign customer of the Su-57E fifth-generation fighter jet will begin its operation in 2025. This indicates Russia's continued arms export capabilities and development of advanced military hardware.
• Russian Information Operations:
  • POW Abuse Allegations: A Russian serviceman ("Karp") claimed extensive physical and religious abuse while in Ukrainian captivity, with the video framed by an "International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis." This is a propaganda tool aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and mobilizing domestic support in Russia.
  • Sanctions Impact Narrative: Rybar comments on the EU's 17th and 18th sanctions packages, claiming they will disproportionately harm European businesses. This is a narrative aimed at undermining Western unity and resolve.
  • Trump's Influence/Narrative: Rodion Miroshnik claims Ukraine continues attacks on Russian territory despite renewed Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul, suggesting Ukraine is trying to "please different masters." This is a narrative aimed at portraying Ukraine as unreliable and aggressive, potentially influencing the perception of peace talks.
  • Mariupol Commemoration & Historical Narrative: Mikhail Piotrovsky, Director of the State Hermitage Museum, advocated for local museums to become central in presenting Russia's complete military history, including a "museum of liberation of Kursk Oblast from the Armed Forces of Ukraine." This is a strategic effort to shape national identity, foster patriotism, and legitimize current state actions by controlling and disseminating a unified historical narrative.
  • Trump's Aid Stance: Former US President Trump has acknowledged the "destructive" consequences of suspending financial aid worldwide and called on other countries to "chip in" for assistance. While not directly military, this statement from a former leader with potential future influence could influence aid flows and burden-sharing discussions among allies.
• North Korean Military Incident: An accident occurred during the launch of a North Korean warship, as reported by Reuters citing KCNA.
• Bitcoin Price Update: The value of Bitcoin exceeded $110,000, setting a new historical maximum. This is a general financial market update with no direct military implications.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Currently under renewed significant drone threat for all districts, especially Zavodsky. New groups of UAVs are reported from the Black Sea heading towards the coast. Drones are approaching Voskresenske, Kulbakino, Kryvyi Rih, Radsad, Matveevka, Raketka, Central District, Meshkovo-Pogorelovo, Korabelny district, Galitsinovo, Kozyrka, Koblevo, Ochakov, and Kutsurub. An explosion was reported in Mykolaiv, consistent with ongoing drone interceptions. Air defense is active, with some drones already shot down.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Suffered a missile strike in Kholodnohirsky district, damaging 8 private houses and causing stress reactions. Multiple new groups of attack UAVs are active, heading through Balakliia towards Barvinkove, and in the Lozova area towards Dobropolye. New groups of strike UAVs are reported in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with some heading towards Chuhuiv. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian EW station in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Donetsk Oblast: Drones are heading towards Konstantinovka (from Dobropolye area) and Kramatorsk (from Barvinkove and Izium areas). Drones from Kharkiv Oblast are now moving towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces claim destruction of equipment and communication assets near Novoukrainka.
• Kryvyi Rih District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Drones are reported flying towards this area from the south.
• Kherson Oblast: Groups of Shahed drones are passing through, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Odesa Oblast: New groups of UAVs are reported from the Black Sea heading towards its coast.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: A new air raid alert was declared across the entire oblast due to the threat of ballistic weaponry from the southeast. The ballistic threat has now been cleared.
• Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): A missile was reported heading in the direction of Dnipro. The missile threat has now been cleared. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Kamenske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Impact of ballistic missile reported nearby. The ballistic threat has now been cleared.
• Tula Oblast (Russia): Drone debris reported fallen.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region, with Mayor Sobyanin confirming 12 downed UAVs. Mayor Sobyanin now reports 16 enemy UAVs were repelled on approach to Moscow, indicating an increased scale of attempted attacks.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the region. Russian forces claim full control over Belgorod Oblast.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Referenced in discussions about a future "museum of liberation" focusing on Russian military history. Russian forces claim full control over Kursk Oblast, and President Putin visited the region to emphasize societal unity.
• Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast): Several groups of UAVs are reported moving towards Chuhuiv. Drones from Kharkiv Oblast (via Izium and Chuhuiv) are now moving towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts.
• Novoukrainka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian equipment and communication assets.

Strategic Outlook

The immediate outlook is dominated by Russia's continued and intensified aerial campaign, particularly multi-directional drone attacks across Ukraine, which aim to overwhelm air defenses and inflict widespread damage. The initial ballistic missile threats to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro underscore Russia's persistent long-range strike capability, though these specific alerts have now been cleared. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant portion of these drones, coupled with new reports of successful interceptions and a confirmed missile strike in Kharkiv, highlights the ongoing critical air defense battle. Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian EW station in Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, indicate an ongoing effort to degrade Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities, which could impact Ukrainian drone operations and communications. The claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and communication assets near Novoukrainka further points to Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian operational capabilities.

Russia's internal focus on human capital management through the "Time of Heroes" program suggests a long-term strategic investment in developing military and civilian leadership from combat veterans, which can enhance overall state effectiveness and morale. The highly publicized visit of President Putin to Kursk Oblast, emphasizing national unity, also points to a strategic effort to solidify public support for ongoing military operations and claims of territorial control in border regions. The conclusion of the Prozorov case further indicates Russia's focus on internal security and targeting of perceived threats. Bastrykin's push for Soviet cinema in schools is a clear ideological move to reinforce state-approved narratives and moral values.

The ongoing information warfare, as evidenced by Russian narratives on sanctions, historical interpretations, and alleged POW abuse, remains a critical strategic front. These efforts aim to erode Western unity, justify Russian actions, bolster domestic support, and demonize Ukrainian forces. Ukraine must maintain robust counter-narratives and continue to highlight Russian aggression and war crimes. The first export of Russia's Su-57E fighter jet also indicates Russia's continued arms export capabilities and influence in the global arms market.

Overall, the situation points to continued high-intensity conventional and unconventional warfare, with a strong emphasis on the air domain and the ongoing adaptation of technological solutions by both sides. Continued Ukrainian air defense efforts remain paramount to mitigating Russia's aerial superiority, while strategic communication and human capital development remain critical for both sides. The continued large-scale drone attacks on Moscow suggest Ukraine's persistent capability and intent to strike targets deep within Russian territory, posing a significant challenge to Russian air defenses and potentially impacting public morale.