Situation Report

Operational Update: May 21, 2025, 23:23 UTC

The military situation continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, persistent Russian aerial bombardment, and significant cross-border drone activity. Diplomatic efforts continue, highlighting complex and often contradictory stances among international actors.

Major Updates

• Intensified Ground Offensives and Territorial Claims:

  • Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 43 Russian offensive actions repelled. Active fighting is noted in Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenskoye, Kotline, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and Novomykolaivka. Ukrainian forces claim 67 Russian personnel eliminated and significant equipment destroyed. Russian military bloggers claim to have "practically cleared" Toretsk, advanced towards Nova Poltavka, and are moving to encircle a Ukrainian grouping to control Konstantinovka logistics. Russian forces of the "Center" Group are reportedly advancing on the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting in Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), and Zverevo.
  • Donetsk Oblast - Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Vilne Pole, with one engagement ongoing. Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Russian forces claim advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Border Breach Claimed: Russian sources claim units of the 90th Guards Tank Division breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers report assault units secured a quarter of Novonikolaevka and are attacking its center.
  • Velyka Novosilka Area: Positional battles reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces claim to have advanced over 800 meters along the Volnoye Pole - Novoselka front.
  • Mariupol Commemoration: Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "full liberation," portraying it as a symbol of restoration.
  • Donetsk Oblast - Bogatyr (Novopavlivka direction): Russian sources, specifically the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, claim the "liberation" of the village of Bogatyr in Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). They describe it as a "serious fortified area" and emphasize the crucial role of FPV drones in achieving this objective, stating drones allowed them to "successfully and safely conduct combat operations," "advance deep into the enemy's defenses," and "carry out maneuvers that would have been impossible without eyes in the air." They also claim FPV drones prevented Ukrainian counter-approaches and were used to strike personnel and armored vehicles.
  • Donetsk Oblast - Dyleevka: Russian FPV drones reportedly struck and destroyed a temporary Ukrainian strongpoint. This suggests continued Russian use of FPV drones for precision strikes against fortifications.

• Russian Deep Strikes and Aerial Activity:

  • Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 62 aviation strikes, dropping 96 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and utilized 1218 kamikaze drones, alongside over 3800 artillery shellings. Uncontrolled aerial missiles (NARs) were used on Huliaipole and Vysoke. KABs are reported on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Sumy and Shostka: "Geran" drones struck targets in Sumy and Shostka.
  • Volchansk, Chasiv Yar, Privolye: Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems were reportedly used against Ukrainian personnel concentrations in Volchansk (57th Motorized Infantry Brigade), Chasiv Yar (24th Mechanized Brigade), and Privolye (30th Mechanized Brigade).
  • Drone Activity in Ukraine: Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine report active groups of Russian strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. Later updates specify a UAV passed Zinkiv/Shyshaky towards Poltava, a group of Shaheds from the south heading towards Marhanets, and several new groups of attack UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Further updates indicate drones moving from Poltava/Kharkiv border towards Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad), within Poltava (Novi Sanzhary, Myrhorod), and in Kharkiv (Balakliia towards Barvinkove), and Donetsk (towards Kramatorsk). Explosions were reported in Pavlohrad. A drone attack has been reported in Kharkiv, and the city is under drone attack. Explosions were heard in Chuhuiv. New data indicates continued widespread Russian drone activity, with groups of Shaheds through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast, UAVs towards Pavlohrad, and several groups through Izium towards Donetsk Oblast. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv's Kholodnohirsky district due to a missile strike, damaging a private house. This is a significant escalation of direct missile impact on a civilian area. New drone reports indicate continued activity near Dobropolye (heading towards Konstantinovka), near Barvinkove (towards Kramatorsk), in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast (towards Dobropolye), and southern drones flying towards Kryvyi Rih district. Additionally, 10 drones are reported south of Snihurivka heading west. Mykolaiv city is under drone threat, with drones approaching Voskresenske, Kulbakino, and moving towards Kryvyi Rih. Air defense is active, with some drones already shot down.
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk. The threat was later cleared.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK on Wednesday over various regions of Russia, with 9 of these being over the Moscow region. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep drone attacks and persistent Russian air defense efforts. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported another UAV shot down over Moscow, indicating ongoing Ukrainian long-range drone attempts.
  • Shot Down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" Drone: Russian sources claim to have shot down a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" type drone-bomber with small arms fire. This indicates continued efforts to counter larger Ukrainian drones.
  • Russian FPV Drone Counter-Operations: The Russian 215th Reconnaissance Battalion reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and its ground control point. This demonstrates effective Russian counter-UAS tactics, including targeting the drone itself, its repeater, and the operators' shelter.

• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations and Russian Air Defense Activity:

  • Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy states active operations are an "active and effective defense" of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties in Kursk since August. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to attack Tetkino in Kursk Oblast. A Russian military blogger claims a group of Latin American mercenaries was eliminated attempting to break through the state border in Kursk/Sumy regions.
  • Moscow Drone Attacks: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported 27 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the Moscow region throughout the day, with an additional 11 confirmed by the Ministry of Defense between 18:00 and 20:00 MSK (11 in Moscow region, 16 in Kursk, 5 in Ryazan, 4 in Oryol, 1 in Crimea, totaling 37 UAVs intercepted in two hours across regions).
  • DRG Activity in Bryansk Oblast: Russian sources claim a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) is blocked in Bryansk Oblast. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo were reportedly blocked due to "preventive measures." Later, Russian sources claimed the "terrorists" were eliminated and the area is being checked for survivors.

• Diplomatic and Political Shifts:

  • Trump's Influence: Former US President Trump reportedly told European leaders Russia is "winning" and he is unwilling to personally participate in the peace process, viewing the conflict as a "European affair," allegedly "stunning" European leaders. He also suggested the US would not be tightening sanctions on Russia.
  • Polish Response: Polish PM Tusk fiercely responded to a Polish presidential candidate's willingness to abandon support for Ukraine's NATO membership, framing it as aligning with Putin's demand for Ukraine's "capitulation and division."
  • Russia's Stance: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated a firm stance against "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, insisting negotiations proceed without pausing combat. Dmitry Medvedev stated if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face unconditional surrender. Russia's MFA legal department director, Maxim Musikhin, commented on the situation, stating that the Ukrainian people should choose new leadership for a peace memorandum with Russia, as the current parliament speaker may not be legally suitable.
  • NATO Support: The Netherlands Prime Minister reiterated NATO will not abandon Ukraine. The US is reportedly working with NATO partners to find additional Patriot batteries for Ukraine.
  • EU Sanctions: The EU approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting ~300 tankers of Russia's "shadow fleet," ~30 companies involved in sanctions evasion, and 75 individuals/companies linked to the military-industrial complex.
  • Hungary Exits ICC: Hungary's parliament approved a bill to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
  • UK-EU Agreement: Britain and the European Union have concluded an agreement to deepen their partnership, including defense and security cooperation, in response to the "Russian threat." This agreement will allow the UK to participate in EU peacekeeping missions and collective defense.
  • UK Criminal Investigation Involving Ukrainians: British authorities have charged a third Ukrainian citizen (Petro Pochynok) with conspiracy to commit arson in connection with attacks on the home and car of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This is a domestic criminal issue in the UK with a potentially negative impact on Ukrainian reputation if linked to the broader conflict.

• Technological and Internal Developments:

  • Turkey's AKKOR 10: Turkey officially adopted the AKKOR 10 active protection system for armored vehicles, with hard-kill and soft-kill capabilities, 360-degree coverage, protection against top-down attacks, and reported adaptation for FPV drones.
  • Russian Improvised Armor/MLRS: A Russian volunteer project "Frontline Armor" produces and installs improvised armor kits and MLRS systems, relying on public donations. New imagery shows Russian tanks heavily camouflaged with Ghillie-like netting and "cope cages" (anti-drone netting) on their turrets, some also featuring front-mounted mine plows/dozer blades and additional chains for protection. This highlights continued adaptation to drone threats and a focus on concealment and obstacle breaching.
  • Russian Anti-Drone Suits: Russian soldiers claim to be using "anti-drone suits" that make them invisible to thermal imagers, allowing stealthy movement.
  • Mobilization and Desertion (Ukraine): Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak reported 45,000 men illegally left Ukraine since the invasion, with 30,000 detained, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated (400 convictions). Around 1000 students aged 25+ were expelled from a Lutsk university for evading mobilization.
  • Russian Recruitment: Russia claims to have identified 80,000 naturalized foreign citizens who have not registered for military service, with 20,000 already sent to the front. A report claims ~50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters/absent without leave over two years. Moscow and Moscow Oblast are experimenting with enhanced migrant control.
  • Russian Military-Industrial Exports: Head of Rostec reports Russia's export order portfolio for the military-industrial complex exceeded $60 billion, a record high, with over 20 large contracts (~$7 billion) signed since early 2025.
  • Ukrainian Robotics: The 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" reportedly conducted a successful medical evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic platform.
  • US Nuclear Modernization: The US assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets.
  • Russian Nuclear Arsenal Figures: A Russian military blogger reports, citing BAS data, that Russia's total nuclear arsenal in 2025 is estimated at 5459 warheads, compared to 5177 for the US.
  • Demographic Projections in Russia: A report on the implementation of state policy in education projects a decrease in the number of students in Russian schools from 18 million in 2024 to 16.3 million in 2028.
  • Russian Military Leadership: Belousov introduced newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Colonel-General Mordvichev, presenting him with the standard.
  • Russian FPV Drone Effectiveness Claims: Russian military bloggers claim that the logistics of Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified," primarily due to daily drops of at least 10 FABs with UPMK (guided aerial bombs) and control of all roads into Konstantinovka by Russian FPV drones. They assert that this could lead to a rapid collapse of urban defenses, emphasizing Konstantinovka's strategic importance as a rear logistical hub for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. They also claim Russian UAV operators are performing "half of the ground tasks" for Russian forces.
  • Ukraine - Okhmatdyt Hospital Reconstruction Tender: A tender was announced for the capital repair of the Okhmatdyt National Children's Specialized Hospital in Kyiv, damaged by Russian aggression. The tender, worth 293 million UAH, was won by "RIOLA-MODUL LTD LLC" with a statutory capital of only 375 UAH, raising concerns about accountability despite the company's past experience with government contracts.
  • Disinformation/Propaganda: A message from Anatoliy Shariy falsely claims the assassination of Andrey Portnov by "killers of the Office of the President" in Spain, highlighting ongoing information warfare. Russian military bloggers are sharing images of the Kremlin's Coat of Arms, emphasizing the return of crosses on the emblem and framing it as a reflection of popular sentiment and the President's religious faith. This is a clear propaganda effort aimed at bolstering national unity and religious identity within Russia.
  • Russian "Victory Train" in Donetsk: A "Victory Train" mobile museum, focusing on WWII history and promoting Russian patriotic narratives, arrived in Donetsk. This initiative aims to ideologically integrate the region and shape perceptions of current conflicts through historical parallels.
  • Ukrainian FPV Drone Development/Implementation Feedback: A Ukrainian military blogger highlighted a perceived lack of openness from "cabinet commanders" to integrate advanced FPV drone tactics, including fiber-optic and enhanced range capabilities, proposed by frontline personnel. This suggests a potential gap between tactical innovation and broader military adoption within Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian Domestic Policy: Russia's State Duma proposes paying childcare benefits to low-income families until a child reaches 18 years old. This is a domestic social policy initiative in Russia.
  • Russian Airport Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Tambov airport. This is a new report on domestic Russian restrictions.
  • Russian Digital Security: Russia's Investigative Committee head Alexander Bystrykin reported the creation of a program for profiling serial criminals based on data processing, along with video surveillance programs capable of recognizing stolen vehicles and voices. This is an internal security/law enforcement development.

• Civilian Impact and War Crimes:

  • Sumy Bus Attack: The Office of the Prosecutor General initiated a pre-trial investigation into the previous day's bus attack near Bilopillia (Sumy Oblast) as a war crime, now confirmed to have resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries. A Russian drone attacked a humanitarian aid distribution point in Velyka Pysarivka (Sumy Oblast), injuring two civilians.
  • Kherson Civilian Casualties: Two people were injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now increased to 5 injured). Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson injured another 5 people, totaling 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Explosions were reported in Kherson.
  • Stepnohirsk KABs: Russian forces attacked Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) with at least nine KABs, damaging residential buildings, with no casualties.
  • Ukrainian Conviction Clarified: The Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office clarified that Vitalii Kukolio, previously reported as sentenced for defending a village, was convicted for illegal possession of weapons, not for mining a road.
  • Kharkiv Missile Strike: An explosion occurred in Kharkiv's Kholodnohirsky district due to a Russian missile strike, damaging a private house and injuring one person. This is a direct impact on civilian infrastructure.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast: Intense fighting across multiple directions, particularly Pokrovsk (Yablunivka, Zorya, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, Novomykolaivka, Dyleevka), Novopavlivka (Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Vilne Pole), and Toretsk (Dyliivka, Druzhba, Toretsk), Chasiv Yar. Russian forces claimed entry into Otradnoye and advancements east of Fedorivka. Russian sources claim Bogatyr "liberated." Intense FPV drone activity near Dyliivka. Russian drones are heading towards Kramatorsk. A Russian "Victory Train" mobile museum has arrived in Donetsk. New drone activity reported north of Dobropolye, flying towards Konstantinovka. Several drone groups are reported through Izium towards Donetsk Oblast.
• Sumy Oblast: "Geran" drone strikes on Sumy and Shostka. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakivka. Bus attack in Bilopillia (9 dead, 4 injured) and drone attack on humanitarian aid point in Velyka Pysarivka (2 injured). Groups of Russian strike UAVs active, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: KABs reported. Russian units claimed border crossing between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo. Russian assault units claimed to have secured a quarter of Novonikolaevka and are attacking the village center. A group of Shahed drones is heading towards Marhanets. Drones are reported heading towards Pavlohrad, and explosions have been heard in Pavlohrad. Additional drones are approaching Pavlohrad. New drone reports indicate drones passing Pavlohrad, and new drones approaching Pavlohrad. Mykolaiv is under significant drone threat, with multiple groups approaching or within city limits.
• Kharkiv Oblast: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and towards Mala Shapkivka. Russian FPV drones reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces used 158 kamikaze drones on this axis, with Ukraine claiming 81 intercepted. TOS-1A strikes on Volchansk. Several new groups of attack UAVs are active. Drones are reported in Kharkiv Oblast, including a group moving through Balakliia towards Barvinkove. Kharkiv is under drone attack, and an explosion was heard. A Russian drone was reported north of Chuhuiv. A missile strike was reported in Kharkiv's Kholodnohirsky district, damaging a private house. New drone activity reported in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dobropolye.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian attacks near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino. Claims of Rylsk-Korenevsk highway under Ukrainian fire control. 16 UAVs shot down by Russian air defense. Ukrainian DRGs were claimed to be eliminated in Bryansk Oblast.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): 27 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Incidents reported near Domodedovo and Podolsk. Zhukovsky Airport had restrictions. Ministry of Defense claims 9 UAVs shot down over Moscow region between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK. Another Ukrainian UAV was reportedly shot down over Moscow.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources claim continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses, with specific claimed advances on the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions. Russian forces claimed disruption of Ukrainian logistics and communications.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. Russian units claimed disruption of Ukrainian logistics and personnel rotation near Hulyaipole and Yablokovo. TOS-1A strikes on Pryvillia. Attack on Stepnohirsk with 9 KABs. Air alert declared with threat of strike UAVs.
• Kherson Oblast: Drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (5 injured). Artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district (5 injured). Positional battles reported on the Kherson direction (Dnipro islands). Explosions reported in Kherson. New drone groups are reported in Berislavsky district, heading towards Novy Buh/Kazanka. Groups of Shahed drones are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian DRG reportedly blocked. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo blocked. "Terrorists" claimed eliminated.
• Poltava Oblast: Drones are reported moving towards Poltava, passing Zinkiv/Shyshaky, and from the Poltava/Kharkiv border area towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Drones are also reported near Novi Sanzhary and Myrhorod.
• Tambov Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Tambov airport.
• Slovyansk (Donetsk Oblast): A drone is reported near Slovyansk.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: New drone activity is reported approaching Voskresenske, Kulbakino, Kryvyi Rih. Mykolaiv city is under drone threat for all districts except Zavodsky. Some drones have been shot down.
• Kryvyi Rih District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): New drone activity reported flying towards here, with explosions possible.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict persists as a brutal war of attrition, with Russia pressing relentless multi-axis offensives in Donetsk Oblast, aiming for breakthroughs towards Konstantinovka and consolidating gains, notably the claimed crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The reported "liberation" of Bogatyr and heavy reliance on FPV drones by Russian forces underscore the continued tactical adaptation and the importance of drone warfare. Ukraine's strategy of offensive-defense, including cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod, seeks to relieve pressure, inflict attrition, and gain leverage for prisoner exchanges.

Russia's overwhelming aerial bombardment with KABs and drones continues to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure. The multi-directional drone attacks into Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts highlight Russia's intent to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. The reported drone attack on Kharkiv and Chuhuiv underscores the continued threat to urban centers. Conversely, Ukraine's deep drone attacks into Russian territory, including Moscow, aim to disrupt and create internal pressure, demonstrating a capability to project force. The ongoing threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk further emphasizes the severity of aerial threats. The confirmed missile strike on Kharkiv's Kholodnohirsky district signifies a direct and damaging impact on a civilian area, indicating Russia's continued willingness to target urban centers with precision munitions. The widespread and numerous new drone threat reports, including for Mykolaiv, underscore the persistent and geographically diverse nature of Russian aerial assaults, which aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and inflict damage across the country.

Diplomatically, former President Trump's reported statements on Russia "winning" and his reduced engagement signal potential weakening of Western unity and sustained US aid, placing a greater burden on Europe. The EU's 17th sanctions package targets Russia's "shadow fleet," indicating continued economic pressure. Russia's hardline negotiation stance, emphasizing unconditional surrender and questioning the legitimacy of current Ukrainian leadership for a peace memorandum, indicates no immediate desire for a resolution on Ukraine's terms. The new UK-EU agreement to deepen defense cooperation signals a strengthened united front against perceived Russian threats. The criminal charges against Ukrainian citizens in the UK, if weaponized in Russian information operations, could potentially undermine international support for Ukraine, although the specific case is unrelated to military operations.

Technological adaptation is crucial. Turkey's AKKOR APS highlights advancements in armored vehicle survivability. Russia's improvised armor production, reliant on crowdfunding, suggests official supply chain gaps but also a resilient grassroots support network. New imagery of Russian tanks with heavy improvised camouflage and "cope cages" confirms advanced adaptation to counter drone threats and enhance concealment, underscoring the ongoing tactical evolution of armored warfare. Claims of Russian anti-drone suits indicate ongoing innovation in counter-UAV measures. Mobilization challenges and illegal border crossings could impact Ukrainian manpower, while Russia is also addressing personnel needs by recruiting naturalized migrants. The reported record-high Russian military-industrial complex export portfolio underscores its continued economic and strategic strength. The demographic projections in Russia showing a decrease in student numbers could have long-term implications for manpower. The reported internal Ukrainian debate regarding the adoption of advanced FPV drone tactics indicates a need for continued adaptation and integration of battlefield innovations. Russia's use of the "Victory Train" in Donetsk is a strategic ideological tool aimed at consolidating control and narratives in occupied territories. Russia's emphasis on returning crosses to the Kremlin's Coat of Arms in propaganda efforts signifies a strategic move to reinforce national identity and religious legitimacy in support of military actions, potentially influencing domestic morale and external perceptions. The new Russian program for profiling serial criminals, while domestic, signals an investment in advanced data analysis and surveillance, which could have dual-use applications or broader implications for internal control and security.

The overall strategic outlook is one of continued high-intensity combat, with Russia seeking decisive gains while Ukraine focuses on attrition, strategic counter-operations, and technological adaptation amidst a complex international diplomatic landscape. The reported significant Russian casualties in Kursk and desertion figures, if accurate, point to substantial human cost for Russia, which could impact long-term sustainability. The increasing civilian casualties in Ukraine, including attacks on humanitarian aid points and missile strikes on urban centers, underscore the grave human cost of the conflict and the targeting of non-military infrastructure. The controversy surrounding the Okhmatdyt hospital reconstruction tender highlights internal governance challenges in Ukraine amidst the war. The spread of disinformation, as exemplified by Anatoliy Shariy's claims, emphasizes the persistent information warfare domain.

Recommendations

1. Assess and Counter Russian Advances:

   • Urgently verify the claimed Russian crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advances in Novonikolaevka. If confirmed, immediately deploy strategic reserves and implement robust defensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict further advances, and secure critical positions.
   • Analyze Russian anti-drone suits to develop effective countermeasures. Prioritize deployment of mobile, armored anti-drone and EW units to counter Russian FPV drone tactics.
   • Monitor and analyze Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" effectiveness to develop specific counter-tactics and defensive measures against thermobaric systems.
   • Conduct thorough BDA on the claimed "liberation" of Bogatyr and Russian FPV drone effectiveness in that area to refine defensive strategies against such tactics.
   • Prioritize intelligence gathering on Russian drone design and capabilities, including the "Baba Yaga" type, to refine counter-drone measures and potential exploitation.
   • Analyze the effectiveness of improvised Russian tank armor and camouflage seen in new imagery. Develop countermeasures to overcome these defenses, including enhanced top-attack munitions or tactics to negate the effectiveness of "cope cages" and advanced camouflage.

2. Sustain and Optimize Cross-Border Operations:

   • Continue and, where tactically feasible, expand cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts to maintain pressure, degrade logistics, and tie down Russian resources.
   • Maximize intelligence collection from these operations, including details on Russian losses and morale.

3. Enhance Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Prioritize reinforcement of layered air defense systems in all threatened oblasts, especially those targeted by extensive KAB and drone attacks. Given the multi-directional drone attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, ensure flexible and mobile air defense assets are deployed to intercept these threats effectively. Specifically prioritize Mykolaiv's air defense given the current high threat level and multiple drone groups approaching.
   • Accelerate deployment of advanced electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting Russian drone swarms and guided aerial bombs.
   • Implement dynamic dispersal tactics for military assets and critical infrastructure to mitigate KAB and drone strike impact.
   • Intensify training for combat against ground robotic platforms and integrate counter-robotics into defensive planning.
   • Maintain high alert and response capability for ballistic missile threats, particularly from regions like Bryansk, and adapt to cleared threats.
   • Expedite the adoption and widespread deployment of advanced FPV drone tactics, including fiber-optic and extended-range capabilities, based on frontline feedback to maintain and expand a qualitative edge.
   • Analyze and develop countermeasures against Russian FPV anti-drone tactics, specifically the reported targeting of Ukrainian R-18 drones, repeaters, and operator shelters.

4. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Proactively engage European leaders to mitigate the impact of external statements that undermine unity. Reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to democratic values and Western integration, emphasizing the direct security threats to Europe posed by Russia's maximalist goals.
   • Intensify public information campaigns to counter Russian narratives and highlight the human cost of the conflict. Specifically, debunk claims of assassinations or other disinformation campaigns, such as those from Anatoliy Shariy, with verified facts promptly. Counter Russian propaganda efforts that attempt to link the ongoing conflict to domestic issues or perceived religious symbolism, such as the Kremlin Coat of Arms narrative.
   • Work with allies to ensure continued and robust sanctions pressure on Russia, focusing on critical sectors like energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."
   • Leverage the new UK-EU defense and security agreement to advocate for increased coordinated support and resource allocation for Ukraine.
   • Counter Russian efforts to integrate occupied territories ideologically, such as the "Victory Train," by promoting Ukrainian national identity and historical narratives.
   • Monitor and address any potential negative impacts on Ukrainian support caused by criminal charges against Ukrainian citizens in allied countries. Ensure transparent communication that distinguishes such individual criminal acts from the broader national struggle.

5. Optimize Manpower and Logistics:

   • Address mobilization challenges and combat evasion by reviewing recruitment strategies and implementing more effective and equitable methods.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, adapting supply chains to overcome Russian interdiction efforts and challenges posed by reliance on improvised equipment.
   • Investigate and address issues within military leadership and property appropriation to ensure accountability and maintain morale.

6. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Innovation:

   • Fast-track the establishment of domestic arms production facilities, especially for drones, ammunition, and counter-drone systems, leveraging international investment and technology transfer.
   • Continue investment in military-technological innovation, including advanced camouflage, electronic warfare, and drone development, to maintain a qualitative edge. Prioritize development of advanced robotic ground platforms for logistics and medical evacuation.

7. Humanitarian Response and Documentation:

   • Maintain robust humanitarian aid efforts in frontline and newly contested areas, providing medical and social support to affected civilians.
   • Meticulously document all civilian casualties and war crimes (including reports of POW execution orders and attacks on humanitarian aid points, and missile strikes on urban areas) for international legal accountability.
   • Enhance psychological support for military personnel and civilians affected by the conflict, addressing the long-term mental health impacts.
   • Address concerns regarding procurement processes for civilian infrastructure reconstruction, such as the Okhmatdyt hospital tender, ensuring transparency, accountability, and quality of work to maintain public trust and effectively utilize donated funds.

8. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance:

   • Enhance protection of sensitive data and communications from cyber threats, especially those targeting logistics of military aid.
   • Ensure the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations.

9. Strategic Communication and Information Warfare:

   • Counter Russian narratives regarding internal issues like the Vologda scandal or alleged recruitment of "pirates and jungle dwellers" by highlighting their own internal challenges and reliance on such narratives.
   • Continue leveraging successful military actions and training initiatives for morale-boosting and public relations purposes.
   • Continue to pursue international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state to highlight external threats aiding Russia.
   • Leverage intelligence on Russia's military-industrial exports to inform international diplomatic efforts aimed at disrupting their supply chains and revenue.
   • Actively monitor and counter emerging disinformation campaigns, such as the false claims by Anatoliy Shariy, to prevent them from undermining public confidence or international support.