Situation Report

Operational Update: May 21, 2025, 21:52 UTC

The military situation continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, persistent Russian aerial bombardment, and significant cross-border drone activity. Diplomatic efforts continue, highlighting complex and often contradictory stances among international actors.

Major Updates

• Intensified Ground Offensives and Territorial Claims:

  • Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 43 Russian offensive actions repelled. Active fighting is noted in Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenskoye, Kotline, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and Novomykolaivka. Ukrainian forces claim 67 Russian personnel eliminated and significant equipment destroyed. Russian military bloggers claim to have "practically cleared" Toretsk, advanced towards Nova Poltavka, and are moving to encircle a Ukrainian grouping to control Konstantinovka logistics. Russian forces of the "Center" Group are reportedly advancing on the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting in Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), and Zverevo.
  • Donetsk Oblast - Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Vilne Pole, with one engagement ongoing. Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are fighting within the village. Russian forces claim advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles near Komar.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Border Breach Claimed: Russian sources claim units of the 90th Guards Tank Division breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers report assault units secured a quarter of Novonikolaevka and are attacking its center.
  • Velyka Novosilka Area: Positional battles reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces claim to have advanced over 800 meters along the Volnoye Pole - Novoselka front.
  • Mariupol Commemoration: Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "full liberation," portraying it as a symbol of restoration.
  • Donetsk Oblast - Bogatyr (Novopavlivka direction): Russian sources, specifically the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, claim the "liberation" of the village of Bogatyr in Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). They describe it as a "serious fortified area" and emphasize the crucial role of FPV drones in achieving this objective, stating drones allowed them to "successfully and safely conduct combat operations," "advance deep into the enemy's defenses," and "carry out maneuvers that would have been impossible without eyes in the air." They also claim FPV drones prevented Ukrainian counter-approaches and were used to strike personnel and armored vehicles.

• Russian Deep Strikes and Aerial Activity:

  • Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 62 aviation strikes, dropping 96 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and utilized 1218 kamikaze drones, alongside over 3800 artillery shellings. Uncontrolled aerial missiles (NARs) were used on Huliaipole and Vysoke. KABs are reported on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Sumy and Shostka: "Geran" drones struck targets in Sumy and Shostka.
  • Volchansk, Chasiv Yar, Privolye: Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems were reportedly used against Ukrainian personnel concentrations in Volchansk (57th Motorized Infantry Brigade), Chasiv Yar (24th Mechanized Brigade), and Privolye (30th Mechanized Brigade).
  • Drone Activity in Ukraine: Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine report active groups of Russian strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. Later updates specify a UAV passed Zinkiv/Shyshaky towards Poltava, a group of Shaheds from the south heading towards Marhanets, and several new groups of attack UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK on Wednesday over various regions of Russia, with 9 of these being over the Moscow region. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep drone attacks and persistent Russian air defense efforts.

• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations and Russian Air Defense Activity:

  • Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy states active operations are an "active and effective defense" of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties in Kursk since August. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to attack Tetkino in Kursk Oblast. A Russian military blogger claims a group of Latin American mercenaries was eliminated attempting to break through the state border in Kursk/Sumy regions.
  • Moscow Drone Attacks: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported 27 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the Moscow region throughout the day, with an additional 11 confirmed by the Ministry of Defense between 18:00 and 20:00 MSK (11 in Moscow region, 16 in Kursk, 5 in Ryazan, 4 in Oryol, 1 in Crimea, totaling 37 UAVs intercepted in two hours across regions).
  • DRG Activity in Bryansk Oblast: Russian sources claim a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) is blocked in Bryansk Oblast. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo were reportedly blocked due to "preventive measures." Later, Russian sources claimed the "terrorists" were eliminated and the area is being checked for survivors.

• Diplomatic and Political Shifts:

  • Trump's Influence: Former US President Trump reportedly told European leaders Russia is "winning" and he is unwilling to personally participate in the peace process, viewing the conflict as a "European affair," allegedly "stunning" European leaders. He also suggested the US would not be tightening sanctions on Russia.
  • Polish Response: Polish PM Tusk fiercely responded to a Polish presidential candidate's willingness to abandon support for Ukraine's NATO membership, framing it as aligning with Putin's demand for Ukraine's "capitulation and division."
  • Russia's Stance: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated a firm stance against "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, insisting negotiations proceed without pausing combat. Dmitry Medvedev stated if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face unconditional surrender. Russia's MFA legal department director, Maxim Musikhin, commented on the situation, stating that the Ukrainian people should choose new leadership for a peace memorandum with Russia, as the current parliament speaker may not be legally suitable.
  • NATO Support: The Netherlands Prime Minister reiterated NATO will not abandon Ukraine. The US is reportedly working with NATO partners to find additional Patriot batteries for Ukraine.
  • EU Sanctions: The EU approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting ~300 tankers of Russia's "shadow fleet," ~30 companies involved in sanctions evasion, and 75 individuals/companies linked to the military-industrial complex.
  • Hungary Exits ICC: Hungary's parliament approved a bill to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

• Technological and Internal Developments:

  • Turkey's AKKOR 10: Turkey officially adopted the AKKOR 10 active protection system for armored vehicles, with hard-kill and soft-kill capabilities, 360-degree coverage, protection against top-down attacks, and reported adaptation for FPV drones.
  • Russian Improvised Armor/MLRS: A Russian volunteer project "Frontline Armor" produces and installs improvised armor kits and MLRS systems, relying on public donations.
  • Russian Anti-Drone Suits: Russian soldiers claim to be using "anti-drone suits" that make them invisible to thermal imagers, allowing stealthy movement.
  • Mobilization and Desertion (Ukraine): Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak reported 45,000 men illegally left Ukraine since the invasion, with 30,000 detained, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated (400 convictions). Around 1000 students aged 25+ were expelled from a Lutsk university for evading mobilization.
  • Russian Recruitment: Russia claims to have identified 80,000 naturalized foreign citizens who have not registered for military service, with 20,000 already sent to the front. A report claims ~50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters/absent without leave over two years. Moscow and Moscow Oblast are experimenting with enhanced migrant control.
  • Russian Military-Industrial Exports: Head of Rostec reports Russia's export order portfolio for the military-industrial complex exceeded $60 billion, a record high, with over 20 large contracts (~$7 billion) signed since early 2025.
  • Ukrainian Robotics: The 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" reportedly conducted a successful medical evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic platform.
  • US Nuclear Modernization: The US assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets.
  • Russian Nuclear Arsenal Figures: A Russian military blogger reports, citing BAS data, that Russia's total nuclear arsenal in 2025 is estimated at 5459 warheads, compared to 5177 for the US.
  • Demographic Projections in Russia: A report on the implementation of state policy in education projects a decrease in the number of students in Russian schools from 18 million in 2024 to 16.3 million in 2028.
  • Russian Military Leadership: Belousov introduced newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Colonel-General Mordvichev, presenting him with the standard.
  • Russian FPV Drone Effectiveness Claims: Russian military bloggers claim that the logistics of Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified," primarily due to daily drops of at least 10 FABs with UPMK (guided aerial bombs) and control of all roads into Konstantinovka by Russian FPV drones. They assert that this could lead to a rapid collapse of urban defenses, emphasizing Konstantinovka's strategic importance as a rear logistical hub for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. They also claim Russian UAV operators are performing "half of the ground tasks" for Russian forces.
  • Ukraine - Okhmatdyt Hospital Reconstruction Tender: A tender was announced for the capital repair of the Okhmatdyt National Children's Specialized Hospital in Kyiv, damaged by Russian aggression. The tender, worth 293 million UAH, was won by "RIOLA-MODUL LTD LLC" with a statutory capital of only 375 UAH, raising concerns about accountability despite the company's past experience with government contracts.
  • Disinformation/Propaganda: A message from Anatoliy Shariy falsely claims the assassination of Andrey Portnov by "killers of the Office of the President" in Spain, highlighting ongoing information warfare.

• Civilian Impact and War Crimes:

  • Sumy Bus Attack: The Office of the Prosecutor General initiated a pre-trial investigation into the previous day's bus attack near Bilopillia (Sumy Oblast) as a war crime, now confirmed to have resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries. A Russian drone attacked a humanitarian aid distribution point in Velyka Pysarivka (Sumy Oblast), injuring two civilians.
  • Kherson Civilian Casualties: Two people were injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (now increased to 5 injured). Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson injured another 5 people, totaling 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Explosions were reported in Kherson.
  • Stepnohirsk KABs: Russian forces attacked Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) with at least nine KABs, damaging residential buildings, with no casualties.
  • Ukrainian Conviction Clarified: The Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office clarified that Vitalii Kukolio, previously reported as sentenced for defending a village, was convicted for illegal possession of weapons, not for mining a road.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast: Intense fighting across multiple directions, particularly Pokrovsk (Yablunivka, Zorya, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, Novomykolaivka), Novopavlivka (Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Vilne Pole), and Toretsk (Dyliivka, Druzhba, Toretsk), Chasiv Yar. Russian forces claimed entry into Otradnoye and advancements east of Fedorivka. Russian sources claim Bogatyr "liberated." Intense FPV drone activity near Dyliivka.
• Sumy Oblast: "Geran" drone strikes on Sumy and Shostka. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakivka. Bus attack in Bilopillia (9 dead, 4 injured) and drone attack on humanitarian aid point in Velyka Pysarivka (2 injured). Groups of Russian strike UAVs active, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: KABs reported. Russian units claimed border crossing between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo. Russian assault units claimed to have secured a quarter of Novonikolaevka and are attacking the village center. A group of Shahed drones is heading towards Marhanets.
• Kharkiv Oblast: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and towards Mala Shapkivka. Russian FPV drones reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces used 158 kamikaze drones on this axis, with Ukraine claiming 81 intercepted. TOS-1A strikes on Volchansk. Several new groups of attack UAVs are active.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian attacks near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino. Claims of Rylsk-Korenevsk highway under Ukrainian fire control. 16 UAVs shot down by Russian air defense. Ukrainian DRGs were claimed to be eliminated in Bryansk Oblast.
• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): 27 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Incidents reported near Domodedovo and Podolsk. Zhukovsky Airport had restrictions. Ministry of Defense claims 9 UAVs shot down over Moscow region between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources claim continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses, with specific claimed advances on the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions. Russian forces claimed disruption of Ukrainian logistics and communications.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes. Russian units claimed disruption of Ukrainian logistics and personnel rotation near Hulyaipole and Yablokovo. TOS-1A strikes on Pryvillia. Attack on Stepnohirsk with 9 KABs. Air alert declared with threat of strike UAVs.
• Kherson Oblast: Drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city (5 injured). Artillery shelling of Korabelnyi district (5 injured). Positional battles reported on the Kherson direction (Dnipro islands). Explosions reported in Kherson.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian DRG reportedly blocked. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo blocked. "Terrorists" claimed eliminated.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict persists as a brutal war of attrition, with Russia pressing relentless multi-axis offensives in Donetsk Oblast, aiming for breakthroughs towards Konstantinovka and consolidating gains, notably the claimed crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The reported "liberation" of Bogatyr and heavy reliance on FPV drones by Russian forces underscore the continued tactical adaptation and the importance of drone warfare. Ukraine's strategy of offensive-defense, including cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod, seeks to relieve pressure, inflict attrition, and gain leverage for prisoner exchanges.

Russia's overwhelming aerial bombardment with KABs and drones continues to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure. The multi-directional drone attacks into Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts highlight Russia's intent to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Conversely, Ukraine's deep drone attacks into Russian territory, including Moscow, aim to disrupt and create internal pressure, demonstrating a capability to project force. The ongoing threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk further emphasizes the severity of aerial threats.

Diplomatically, former President Trump's reported statements on Russia "winning" and his reduced engagement signal potential weakening of Western unity and sustained US aid, placing a greater burden on Europe. The EU's 17th sanctions package targets Russia's "shadow fleet," indicating continued economic pressure. Russia's hardline negotiation stance, emphasizing unconditional surrender and questioning the legitimacy of current Ukrainian leadership for a peace memorandum, indicates no immediate desire for a resolution on Ukraine's terms.

Technological adaptation is crucial. Turkey's AKKOR APS highlights advancements in armored vehicle survivability. Russia's improvised armor production, reliant on crowdfunding, suggests official supply chain gaps but also a resilient grassroots support network. Claims of Russian anti-drone suits indicate ongoing innovation in counter-UAV measures. Mobilization challenges and illegal border crossings could impact Ukrainian manpower, while Russia is also addressing personnel needs by recruiting naturalized migrants. The reported record-high Russian military-industrial complex export portfolio underscores its continued economic and strategic strength. The demographic projections in Russia showing a decrease in student numbers could have long-term implications for manpower.

The overall strategic outlook is one of continued high-intensity combat, with Russia seeking decisive gains while Ukraine focuses on attrition, strategic counter-operations, and technological adaptation amidst a complex international diplomatic landscape. The reported significant Russian casualties in Kursk and desertion figures, if accurate, point to substantial human cost for Russia, which could impact long-term sustainability. The increasing civilian casualties in Ukraine, including attacks on humanitarian aid points, underscore the grave human cost of the conflict and the targeting of non-military infrastructure. The controversy surrounding the Okhmatdyt hospital reconstruction tender highlights internal governance challenges in Ukraine amidst the war. The spread of disinformation, as exemplified by Anatoliy Shariy's claims, emphasizes the persistent information warfare domain.

Recommendations

1. Assess and Counter Russian Advances:

   • Urgently verify the claimed Russian crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advances in Novonikolaevka. If confirmed, immediately deploy strategic reserves and implement robust defensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict further advances, and secure critical positions.
   • Analyze Russian anti-drone suits to develop effective countermeasures. Prioritize deployment of mobile, armored anti-drone and EW units to counter Russian FPV drone tactics.
   • Monitor and analyze Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" effectiveness to develop specific counter-tactics and defensive measures against thermobaric systems.
   • Conduct thorough BDA on the claimed "liberation" of Bogatyr and Russian FPV drone effectiveness in that area to refine defensive strategies against such tactics.

2. Sustain and Optimize Cross-Border Operations:

   • Continue and, where tactically feasible, expand cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts to maintain pressure, degrade logistics, and tie down Russian resources.
   • Maximize intelligence collection from these operations, including details on Russian losses and morale.

3. Enhance Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Prioritize reinforcement of layered air defense systems in all threatened oblasts, especially those targeted by extensive KAB and drone attacks. Given the multi-directional drone attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, ensure flexible and mobile air defense assets are deployed to intercept these threats effectively.
   • Accelerate deployment of advanced electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting Russian drone swarms and guided aerial bombs.
   • Implement dynamic dispersal tactics for military assets and critical infrastructure to mitigate KAB and drone strike impact.
   • Intensify training for combat against ground robotic platforms and integrate counter-robotics into defensive planning.

4. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Proactively engage European leaders to mitigate the impact of external statements that undermine unity. Reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to democratic values and Western integration, emphasizing the direct security threats to Europe posed by Russia's maximalist goals.
   • Intensify public information campaigns to counter Russian narratives and highlight the human cost of the conflict. Specifically, debunk claims of assassinations or other disinformation campaigns, such as those from Anatoliy Shariy, with verified facts promptly.
   • Work with allies to ensure continued and robust sanctions pressure on Russia, focusing on critical sectors like energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."

5. Optimize Manpower and Logistics:

   • Address mobilization challenges and combat evasion by reviewing recruitment strategies and implementing more effective and equitable methods.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, adapting supply chains to overcome Russian interdiction efforts and challenges posed by reliance on improvised equipment.
   • Investigate and address issues within military leadership and property appropriation to ensure accountability and maintain morale.

6. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Innovation:

   • Fast-track the establishment of domestic arms production facilities, especially for drones, ammunition, and counter-drone systems, leveraging international investment and technology transfer.
   • Continue investment in military-technological innovation, including advanced camouflage, electronic warfare, and drone development, to maintain a qualitative edge. Prioritize development of advanced robotic ground platforms for logistics and medical evacuation.

7. Humanitarian Response and Documentation:

   • Maintain robust humanitarian aid efforts in frontline and newly contested areas, providing medical and social support to affected civilians.
   • Meticulously document all civilian casualties and war crimes (including reports of POW execution orders and attacks on humanitarian aid points) for international legal accountability.
   • Enhance psychological support for military personnel and civilians affected by the conflict, addressing the long-term mental health impacts.
   • Address concerns regarding procurement processes for civilian infrastructure reconstruction, such as the Okhmatdyt hospital tender, ensuring transparency, accountability, and quality of work to maintain public trust and effectively utilize donated funds.

8. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance:

   • Enhance protection of sensitive data and communications from cyber threats, especially those targeting logistics of military aid.
   • Ensure the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations.

9. Strategic Communication and Information Warfare:

   • Counter Russian narratives regarding internal issues like the Vologda scandal or alleged recruitment of "pirates and jungle dwellers" by highlighting their own internal challenges and reliance on such narratives.
   • Continue leveraging successful military actions and training initiatives for morale-boosting and public relations purposes.
   • Continue to pursue international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state to highlight external threats aiding Russia.
   • Leverage intelligence on Russia's military-industrial exports to inform international diplomatic efforts aimed at disrupting their supply chains and revenue.
   • Actively monitor and counter emerging disinformation campaigns, such as the false claims by Anatoliy Shariy, to prevent them from undermining public confidence or international support.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

• Russian Air Defense Claims: Russia's Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 77 Ukrainian UAVs between 20:00 and 23:50 MSK on Wednesday over various regions of Russia, with 9 of these being over the Moscow region. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep drone attacks and persistent Russian air defense efforts.
• Russian Nuclear Arsenal Figures: A Russian military blogger reports, citing BAS data, that Russia's total nuclear arsenal in 2025 is estimated at 5459 warheads, compared to 5177 for the US. This highlights a key aspect of Russia's strategic deterrent and global power balance.
• Demographic Projections in Russia: A report on the implementation of state policy in education projects a decrease in the number of students in Russian schools from 18 million in 2024 to 16.3 million in 2028. This suggests a demographic decline that could have long-term implications for manpower and economic development.
• Ukrainian Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine report a group of Russian strike UAVs active in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. Later updates specify a UAV passed Zinkiv/Shyshaky towards Poltava, a group of Shaheds from the south heading towards Marhanets, and several new groups of attack UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russian Narrative on Pokrovsk Logistics: Russian military bloggers claim that the logistics of Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk direction are being "nullified," primarily due to daily drops of at least 10 FABs with UPMK (guided aerial bombs) and control of all roads into Konstantinovka by Russian FPV drones. They assert that this could lead to a rapid collapse of urban defenses, emphasizing Konstantinovka's strategic importance as a rear logistical hub for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. They also claim Russian UAV operators are performing "half of the ground tasks" for Russian forces. This is a significant claim of Russian interdiction success and its potential impact on Ukrainian defense.
• Explosions in Kherson: Ukrainian media "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Kherson. This indicates continued military activity in the city.
• Russian Claim of Bogatyr Liberation and FPV Drone Impact: Russian sources (36th Motorized Rifle Brigade) claim the "liberation" of Bogatyr village in DPR, emphasizing the critical and diverse tactical role of FPV drones in achieving this. This highlights Russia's continued tactical adaptation and reliance on FPV drones for offensive operations.
• Air Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration declared an air alert due to the threat of strike UAVs.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk, prompting an air alert. The threat was later cleared.
• Russian Commentary on Ukrainian Leadership for Peace Talks: Russia's MFA legal department director, Maxim Musikhin, commented that the Ukrainian people should choose new leadership for a peace memorandum with Russia, as the current parliament speaker may not be legally suitable. This reiterates Russia's stance on negotiations.
• Okhmatdyt Hospital Reconstruction Tender Controversy: A tender for the capital repair of Okhmatdyt National Children's Specialized Hospital in Kyiv, damaged by Russian aggression, was won by a company with a statutory capital of only 375 UAH for a 293 million UAH contract. This raises concerns about accountability and transparency in reconstruction efforts amidst the conflict.
• Bryansk Oblast DRG Elimination Claim: Russian sources claim that "terrorists" (Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups) in Bryansk Oblast were eliminated and the area is being checked for survivors.
• Disinformation Campaign: A message from Anatoliy Shariy falsely claims the assassination of Andrey Portnov by "killers of the Office of the President" in Spain, indicating an ongoing information warfare effort to demonize Ukrainian leadership.
• Russian FPV Drone Strike Footage: Russian military sources released a video purportedly showing an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dyliivka, demonstrating precision targeting.

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains highly dynamic, marked by intense ground combat in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly around Chasiv Yar and in the Donetsk Oblast, where reported Russian advances and heavy fighting persist, with Russian forces claiming control of most of the Zavodskoy microdistrict and preparing for assaults on further districts. The Sumy Oblast and border regions also remain active, with reports of claimed Russian strikes on a training camp near Shostka and Ukrainian concerns about troop concentrations near the border, alongside reports of Russian artillery and drone activity in the forests of the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. A notable and persistent pattern is the widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones (Geran/Gerbera) and guided aerial bombs (KABs/UMPKs), impacting both frontline areas and deep rear regions, with new reports of multi-directional drone attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk (Marhanets), and Kharkiv Oblasts, and a ballistic missile threat from Bryansk. Ukraine is actively countering these threats with air defense and EW, neutralizing a significant number of drones and claiming interceptions over its territory, while Russia claims intercepts over its border regions. Ukraine is also showcasing innovative tactical applications of drones and new unit formations, such as the creation of the first motorcycle assault company.

Recent updates highlight:

• Continued intense ground combat across multiple directions, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 129 combat clashes today, including particularly intense fighting on the Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and Kursk directions. Russian sources are claiming territorial gains in Sumy, Slobozhanske, and Vremievka areas, alongside continued pressure and destruction of Ukrainian assets on various fronts. Ukrainian forces are repelling numerous assaults and inflicting losses on the enemy. Russian military bloggers are providing detailed accounts of fighting in key areas, including claiming the "liberation" of Bogatyr and emphasizing the decisive role of FPV drones in this operation.
• Sustained and widespread Russian aerial offensive including drone and guided bomb strikes across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Russia conducted 57 aviation strikes, using 1 missile and 78 KABs, and 984 kamikaze drones today. Russia claims an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Sumy Oblast with alleged significant casualties. Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts and Russian reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast. Russia claims intercepting 15 Ukrainian drones over its border regions. Both sides are actively utilizing and countering drones. New Russian drone groups are active in Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk (Marhanets), and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating a coordinated multi-directional attack. A ballistic missile threat from Bryansk was issued and then cleared.
• Development and adaptation of tactics and equipment by both sides, including Ukrainian development of EW-resistant fiber-optic drones and the creation of a motorcycle assault company, and Russian efforts to enhance vehicle protection against drones and integrate drones into tactical operations. The widespread use of FPV drones for direct strikes by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with Russia highlighting their effectiveness in recent advances and in claiming to nullify Ukrainian logistics on the Pokrovsk direction with FABs and FPV drones, threatening the collapse of defenses in Konstantinovka.
• Ongoing diplomatic maneuvering and political developments, with Ukrainian leadership engaging international partners on sanctions, defense cooperation, and coordination with the US. Russia is indicating readiness to present ceasefire conditions to the US, while the US is waiting for clarity and linking potential future sanctions to negotiation progress. Poland has definitively stated it will not send troops to Ukraine. Broader international tensions and political developments are also being reported. Russia's MFA legal department commented on the need for new Ukrainian leadership to sign a peace memorandum, reiterating Russia's hardline stance.
• Information operations and narratives from both sides, including Russian claims of military successes, alleged Ukrainian corruption, and Russian attempts to shape narratives around negotiations and European politics, alongside showcasing its military activities and perceived issues within Ukraine. Ukrainian sources are highlighting military successes, commemorating key events, and addressing potential internal issues. Russian military bloggers are actively disseminating content from the front lines and conducting fundraising campaigns, highlighting a reliance on non-state support for certain equipment. A false claim of assassination by Anatoliy Shariy highlights ongoing disinformation efforts.
• Internal developments in both countries, including domestic incidents in Russia and potential internal political and legal developments. In Ukraine, issues related to troop concentrations near the border and alleged corruption in fortification construction are being raised. A controversial tender for Okhmatdyt hospital reconstruction in Kyiv highlights transparency concerns. Russia's reported demographic projections of decreasing student numbers could have long-term implications for its manpower.
• International relations and tensions, including a naval incident in the Baltic Sea involving Russia detaining an oil tanker that left an Estonian port. The US is conducting aerial surveillance over the Black Sea. Russian military leadership appointments continue.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Zavodskoy, Shevchenko, Levanevsky, Markovo, Predtecheno, Minkovka, Grigorievka, Koptevo, Razino, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, Novaya Poltavka, Novo-Ukrainka, Bogatyr, Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction, Dzerzhinsk, Kotiarivka, Andriivka, Yabluniva, Novoolenivka, Malynivka, Shevchenko Pershe, Myroliubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udačne, Novoserhiivka, Troitske, Kostiantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Zelene Pole, Burlatske, Vesele, Odradne, Siversk direction, Kramatorsk direction, Toretsk direction, Pokrovsk direction, Novopavlivsk direction): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, particularly around Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk direction (37 Russian assaults today). Intense fighting is also reported on the Lyman (24 assaults), Toretsk (10 assaults), and Novopavlivsk (22 assaults) directions. Russian MoD and military bloggers claim significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and tactical improvements across multiple axes, including claimed liberation of Bogatyr, Volnoye Pole, Maryino, Novopol, and Zelenoe Pole, and advances on the Konstantinovka direction. Russian FPV drone strikes on a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dyliivka were reported. Russian sources are showcasing artillery work coordinated with reconnaissance drones near the Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction and claiming successful targeting of Ukrainian positions and communication antennas. Affected by Russian aviation strikes (including KABs) and extensive shelling and drone activity.
• Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoe, Belopolye, Bessalovka, Velykopysarivska community, near Kursk Oblast border, Shostka, Tetkino, Novgorod-Siverskyi (Chernihiv Oblast), Lokni, Maryino, Demidovka, Prilesye, Poltava Oblast direction): Affected by Russian military activity, including claimed engagements near the border and Russian strikes on infrastructure. A Russian claim of an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training camp near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, is reported, with alleged significant casualties. Ukrainian sources highlight concerns about troop concentrations in frontline areas and report KAB launches on the oblast and Russian reconnaissance UAV activity. Urgent Russian fundraising for military equipment on the Kursk front near Tetkino highlights ongoing activity and needs in that area. Russian sources claim Russian artillery and UAVs are hitting Ukrainian strongpoints and communication hubs in the forests of the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions and claim regaining control in Tetkino and advancing near Lokni and liberating Maryino. Groups of Russian strike UAVs active, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Stroivka, Sobolevka, northeastern direction, near Sumy Oblast border, Novomikhailovka, Demidovka, Prilesye): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of tactical improvements and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Zapad" grouping. Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks on the Kharkiv direction. Affected by Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches on the oblast. Russian sources claim significant advances on the Krasnoliman direction, including approaching Kharkiv Oblast from Novomikhailovka, and Russian artillery and UAVs are reportedly active in the forests of the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. Russian sources claim clearing forest areas near Demidovka/Prilesye. Several new groups of attack UAVs are active in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Gulyaypole, Chervonoe, Novoandreevka, Komar, Orikhiv direction, Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepnohirsk): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of continued Russian advancement and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Vostok" and "Dniepr" groupings. Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction. Affected by Russian aviation strikes and extensive shelling and drone activity. A threat of aviation weapons is reported for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). An air alert was declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to the threat of strike UAVs.
• Kherson Oblast (Otradokamenka, near Dnipro River bank, Prydniprovskyi direction, Korabelnyi district): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Dniepr" grouping. A Russian source claims the destruction of a Ukrainian equipment hangar near the Dnipro River. No active Russian offensive actions were reported on the Prydniprovskyi direction today. Affected by Russian aviation strikes and extensive shelling and drone activity. Explosions reported in Kherson.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia) (near Sumy Oblast border, Tetkino, Lokni, Krasnooktyabrsky, Volfino, Novy Put): Location of claimed Russian engagements against Ukrainian units attempting to move towards the border. Ukrainian forces repelled 13 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction today. Urgent Russian fundraising for military equipment on the Kursk front near Tetkino highlights ongoing activity and needs in that area. Russian sources claim Russian artillery and UAVs are hitting Ukrainian strongpoints and communication hubs in the forests of the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions and claim regaining control in Tetkino and advancing near Lokni. Affected by Russian aviation strikes (including KABs) and extensive artillery (including MLRS) and drone activity. Russian air defense claims downing Ukrainian drones over Oryol, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian DRG reportedly blocked. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo blocked. Russian sources claim "terrorists" were eliminated. Threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk was issued and then cleared.
• Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian aviation strikes and extensive shelling and drone activity. Under threat from Russian strike UAVs originating from Sumy Oblast and other directions.
• Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi district): Location of Okhmatdyt National Children's Specialized Hospital, undergoing capital repair due to Russian aggression. A controversial tender for its reconstruction was reported.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Marhanets): A group of Shahed drones is reported heading towards Marhanets from the south.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict persists as a brutal war of attrition, with Russia pressing relentless multi-axis offensives in Donetsk Oblast, aiming for breakthroughs towards Konstantinovka and consolidating gains, notably the claimed crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The reported "liberation" of Bogatyr and heavy reliance on FPV drones by Russian forces underscore the continued tactical adaptation and the importance of drone warfare. Ukraine's strategy of offensive-defense, including cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod, seeks to relieve pressure, inflict attrition, and gain leverage for prisoner exchanges.

Russia's overwhelming aerial bombardment with KABs and drones continues to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure. The multi-directional drone attacks into Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts highlight Russia's intent to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Conversely, Ukraine's deep drone attacks into Russian territory, including Moscow, aim to disrupt and create internal pressure, demonstrating a capability to project force. The ongoing threat of ballistic missile use from Bryansk further emphasizes the severity of aerial threats.

Diplomatically, former President Trump's reported statements on Russia "winning" and his reduced engagement signal potential weakening of Western unity and sustained US aid, placing a greater burden on Europe. The EU's 17th sanctions package targets Russia's "shadow fleet," indicating continued economic pressure. Russia's hardline negotiation stance, emphasizing unconditional surrender and questioning the legitimacy of current Ukrainian leadership for a peace memorandum, indicates no immediate desire for a resolution on Ukraine's terms.

Technological adaptation is crucial. Turkey's AKKOR APS highlights advancements in armored vehicle survivability. Russia's improvised armor production, reliant on crowdfunding, suggests official supply chain gaps but also a resilient grassroots support network. Claims of Russian anti-drone suits indicate ongoing innovation in counter-UAV measures. Mobilization challenges and illegal border crossings could impact Ukrainian manpower, while Russia is also addressing personnel needs by recruiting naturalized migrants. The reported record-high Russian military-industrial complex export portfolio underscores its continued economic and strategic strength. The demographic projections in Russia showing a decrease in student numbers could have long-term implications for manpower.

The overall strategic outlook is one of continued high-intensity combat, with Russia seeking decisive gains while Ukraine focuses on attrition, strategic counter-operations, and technological adaptation amidst a complex international diplomatic landscape. The reported significant Russian casualties in Kursk and desertion figures, if accurate, point to substantial human cost for Russia, which could impact long-term sustainability. The increasing civilian casualties in Ukraine, including attacks on humanitarian aid points, underscore the grave human cost of the conflict and the targeting of non-military infrastructure. The controversy surrounding the Okhmatdyt hospital reconstruction tender highlights internal governance challenges in Ukraine amidst the war. The spread of disinformation, as exemplified by Anatoliy Shariy's claims, emphasizes the persistent information warfare domain.

Recommendations

1. Assess and Counter Russian Advances:

   • Urgently verify the claimed Russian crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advances in Novonikolaevka. If confirmed, immediately deploy strategic reserves and implement robust defensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict further advances, and secure critical positions.
   • Analyze Russian anti-drone suits to develop effective countermeasures. Prioritize deployment of mobile, armored anti-drone and EW units to counter Russian FPV drone tactics.
   • Monitor and analyze Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" effectiveness to develop specific counter-tactics and defensive measures against thermobaric systems.
   • Conduct thorough BDA on the claimed "liberation" of Bogatyr and Russian FPV drone effectiveness in that area to refine defensive strategies against such tactics.

2. Sustain and Optimize Cross-Border Operations:

   • Continue and, where tactically feasible, expand cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts to maintain pressure, degrade logistics, and tie down Russian resources.
   • Maximize intelligence collection from these operations, including details on Russian losses and morale.

3. Enhance Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Prioritize reinforcement of layered air defense systems in all threatened oblasts, especially those targeted by extensive KAB and drone attacks. Given the multi-directional drone attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, ensure flexible and mobile air defense assets are deployed to intercept these threats effectively.
   • Accelerate deployment of advanced electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting Russian drone swarms and guided aerial bombs.
   • Implement dynamic dispersal tactics for military assets and critical infrastructure to mitigate KAB and drone strike impact.
   • Intensify training for combat against ground robotic platforms and integrate counter-robotics into defensive planning.
   • Maintain high alert and response capability for ballistic missile threats, particularly from regions like Bryansk.

4. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Proactively engage European leaders to mitigate the impact of external statements that undermine unity. Reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to democratic values and Western integration, emphasizing the direct security threats to Europe posed by Russia's maximalist goals.
   • Intensify public information campaigns to counter Russian narratives and highlight the human cost of the conflict. Specifically, debunk claims of assassinations or other disinformation campaigns, such as those from Anatoliy Shariy, with verified facts promptly.
   • Work with allies to ensure continued and robust sanctions pressure on Russia, focusing on critical sectors like energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."

5. Optimize Manpower and Logistics:

   • Address mobilization challenges and combat evasion by reviewing recruitment strategies and implementing more effective and equitable methods.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, adapting supply chains to overcome Russian interdiction efforts and challenges posed by reliance on improvised equipment.
   • Investigate and address issues within military leadership and property appropriation to ensure accountability and maintain morale.

6. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Innovation:

   • Fast-track the establishment of domestic arms production facilities, especially for drones, ammunition, and counter-drone systems, leveraging international investment and technology transfer.
   • Continue investment in military-technological innovation, including advanced camouflage, electronic warfare, and drone development, to maintain a qualitative edge. Prioritize development of advanced robotic ground platforms for logistics and medical evacuation.

7. Humanitarian Response and Documentation:

   • Maintain robust humanitarian aid efforts in frontline and newly contested areas, providing medical and social support to affected civilians.
   • Meticulously document all civilian casualties and war crimes (including reports of POW execution orders and attacks on humanitarian aid points) for international legal accountability.
   • Enhance psychological support for military personnel and civilians affected by the conflict, addressing the long-term mental health impacts.
   • Address concerns regarding procurement processes for civilian infrastructure reconstruction, such as the Okhmatdyt hospital tender, ensuring transparency, accountability, and quality of work to maintain public trust and effectively utilize donated funds.

8. Cybersecurity and Information Assurance:

   • Enhance protection of sensitive data and communications from cyber threats, especially those targeting logistics of military aid.
   • Ensure the integrity and availability of information systems supporting military operations.

9. Strategic Communication and Information Warfare:

   • Counter Russian narratives regarding internal issues like the Vologda scandal or alleged recruitment of "pirates and jungle dwellers" by highlighting their own internal challenges and reliance on such narratives.
   • Continue leveraging successful military actions and training initiatives for morale-boosting and public relations purposes.
   • Continue to pursue international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state to highlight external threats aiding Russia.
   • Leverage intelligence on Russia's military-industrial exports to inform international diplomatic efforts aimed at disrupting their supply chains and revenue.
   • Actively monitor and counter emerging disinformation campaigns, such as the false claims by Anatoliy Shariy, to prevent them from undermining public confidence or international support.