Situation Report

Operational Update: May 21, 2025, 20:22 UTC

The military situation continues to be characterized by intense, multi-front ground combat, particularly in Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, alongside extensive and persistent drone activity from both sides. Diplomatic efforts remain complex and often contradictory.

Major Updates

• Intensified Ground Offensives in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts: Russian forces are maintaining aggressive ground offensives.

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 43 offensive actions by Russian forces. Significant fighting is noted in areas including Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenskoye, Kotline, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, and towards Popovy Yar and Novomykolaivka. Ukrainian forces claim to have eliminated 67 Russian personnel, wounded 68, and destroyed a combat armored vehicle, two vehicles, two motorcycles, 19 UAVs, one artillery piece, and one communication antenna. Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk, with ongoing advances on the Konstantinovka direction, including a claimed breakthrough to Nova Poltavka, and further advances aimed at encircling a Ukrainian grouping and taking Konstantinovka logistics under fire control.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Vilne Pole, with one engagement still ongoing.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian sources claim that units of the 90th Guards Tank Division have breached Ukrainian defenses between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers also report that Russian assault units have secured a quarter of Novonikolaevka and are attacking the village center.
  • Otradnoye (Donetsk Oblast): Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts of Otradnoye and are engaged in fighting within the village. Russian forces also claim to have advanced east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and are engaging in counter-battles on the approaches to Komar. Ukrainian counterattacks with equipment were reportedly unsuccessful, with losses.
  • Mariupol (Commemoration): Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "full liberation," portraying the city as a symbol of restoration in "liberated regions."

• Russian Deep Strikes into Ukraine: Russian forces continue to conduct extensive aviation and drone strikes.

  • Aerial Activity: Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 62 aviation strikes, dropping 96 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and utilizing 1218 kamikaze drones, alongside over 3800 artillery shellings. Uncontrolled aerial missiles (NARs) were used on Huliaipole and Vysoke.
  • Sumy and Shostka: Russian forces used "Geran" drones to strike targets in Sumy and Shostka.
  • Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk: KABs are reported on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations and Russian Air Defense Activity:

  • Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that active operations in these regions are an "active and effective defense" of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in the Kursk area since August, and a substantial replenishment of Ukraine's prisoner exchange fund.
  • Drone Attacks on Moscow: Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported that 27 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Moscow region throughout the day, including 6 initially, then 3 more near Domodedovo, and an additional 11 confirmed by the Ministry of Defense between 18:00 and 20:00 MSK (11 in Moscow region, 16 in Kursk, 5 in Ryazan, 4 in Oryol, 1 in Crimea, totaling 37 UAVs intercepted in two hours across regions).
  • DRG Activity in Bryansk Oblast: Russian sources claim that a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) is blocked in Bryansk Oblast. Previously, roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo were reportedly blocked due to "preventive measures" following Z-channel reports of DRG activity.

• Diplomatic and Political Shifts:

  • Trump's Influence on Negotiations: Former US President Trump has reportedly told European leaders that Russia is "winning" the war and that he is unwilling to personally participate in the peace process. He also suggested that the US would not be tightening sanctions on Russia, viewing the conflict as a "European affair." These statements have reportedly "stunned" European leaders, leading to concerns about the future of Western unity and sustained aid to Ukraine. Tusk responded fiercely to a Polish presidential candidate's willingness to abandon support for Ukraine's NATO membership, framing it as directly aligning with Putin's primary demand for Ukraine's eventual "capitulation and division."
  • Russia's Hardline Stance: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated a firm stance against "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, insisting negotiations will proceed without pausing combat. Dmitry Medvedev stated that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face unconditional surrender.
  • NATO Support: The Netherlands Prime Minister reiterated that NATO will not abandon Ukraine and support will continue if negotiations begin. The US is reportedly working with NATO partners to find additional Patriot batteries for Ukraine.

• Technological and Internal Developments:

  • AKKOR 10 (Turkey): Turkey has officially adopted the AKKOR 10 active protection system for armored vehicles, which includes both hard-kill and soft-kill capabilities, 360-degree coverage, and protection against top-down attacks, with a reported adaptation for FPV drones.
  • Russian Improvised Armor and MLRS: A Russian volunteer project "Frontline Armor" is showcased, producing and installing improvised armor kits and MLRS systems on military vehicles, relying on public donations due to persistent demand.
  • Russian Anti-Drone Suits: Russian soldiers claim to be using "anti-drone suits" that make them invisible to thermal imagers, allowing stealthy movement in open terrain and even in broad daylight as a deception tactic.
  • Mobilization and Desertion (Ukraine): Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak reported that 45,000 men have illegally left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 30,000 detained attempting to leave, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated (only 400 convictions). Around 1000 students aged 25+ were expelled from a Lutsk university for evading mobilization.
  • Russian Recruitment: Russia claims to have identified 80,000 naturalized foreign citizens who have not registered for military service, with 20,000 already sent to the front. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years.
  • Russian Migrant Control: Moscow and Moscow Oblast are experimenting with enhanced migrant control, including mandatory biometric registration.
  • Russian Internal Issues: The Head of the Investigative Committee comments on rising crime and radicalization among migrants.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast:

  • Pokrovsk Direction: 43 Russian offensive actions repelled by Ukrainian forces. Continued fighting in Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenskoye, Kotline, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, and towards Popovy Yar and Novomykolaivka. Ukrainian forces claim 67 Russian personnel eliminated, 68 wounded, destruction of a combat armored vehicle, 2 vehicles, 2 motorcycles, 19 UAVs, 1 artillery piece, and 1 communication antenna.
  • Toretsk Direction: Russian forces conducted 12 assaults near Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk; 9 were repelled, 3 ongoing. Russian military blogger claims Toretsk "practically cleared."
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks near Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Vilne Pole; 1 ongoing. Russian aviation conducted an airstrike near Novodarivka.
  • Siversk Direction: Russian forces conducted 2 offensive actions near Bilohorivka, unsuccessful.
  • Otradnoye (Donetsk Oblast): Russian Vostok Group forces have entered the eastern and southern outskirts and are fighting within the village. Russian forces claimed advances east of Fedorivka (beyond the Mokri Yaly river) and counter-battles on the approaches to Komar.
  • Novonikolaevka (Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border): Russian assault units claimed to have secured a quarter of the village and are attacking the center.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Positional battles reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces claimed to have advanced over 800 meters along the Volnoye Pole - Novoselka front.

• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces used "Geran" drones to strike targets in Sumy and Shostka. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian MP mentioned ongoing evacuations in border regions.

• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian units held back 6 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and towards Mala Shapkivka. Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs.

• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 Russian attacks, 1 ongoing. Russian forces conducted 10 aviation strikes with 20 KABs and 157 artillery shellings (including 6 MLRS). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempted to penetrate near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino, and near Novy Put, but were repelled with losses (including from mines and drone operators).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: KABs are reported. Russian 90th Guards Tank Division units claimed to have crossed the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast between Kotlyarivka and Orekhovo.

• Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): 27 Ukrainian UAVs reportedly shot down over the Moscow region throughout the day, including incidents near Domodedovo and Podolsk. Zhukovsky Airport had restrictions for the fourth time today.

• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources claim continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses, with specific claimed advances on the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions. Russian forces claimed to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications through systematic work by artillery and FPV drones.

• Guliaipole Direction: Russian forces attempted to advance towards Chervone three times, unsuccessful. Guliaipole and Vysoke suffered unguided aerial missile strikes.

• Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Shcherbaky and Stepove three times. Russian aviation conducted NAR airstrikes on Novoandriyivka.

• Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian units attempted to advance once, unsuccessful.

• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian DRG reportedly blocked. Roads from Vygonichi to Khmelevo remain blocked.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a brutal war of attrition, with Russia pressing relentlessly on multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast, notably attempting breakthroughs towards Konstantinovka and consolidating gains in Toretsk. The claimed Russian crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, if independently verified, would represent a significant territorial advancement, potentially opening a new axis of operations or a deeper flanking maneuver. Ukraine's strategy of offensive-defense, including cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod, aims to relieve pressure on its own territory and inflict attrition, while also providing valuable leverage for prisoner exchanges.

The scale of Russian aerial bombardment, particularly with KABs and kamikaze drones, underscores their continued reliance on overwhelming firepower to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure. Conversely, Ukraine's persistent drone attacks deep into Russian territory, including Moscow, serve to disrupt, alarm, and create internal pressure, highlighting a capability to project force into the Russian heartland.

The recent diplomatic developments, particularly former President Trump's reported statements on Russia "winning" and his reduced willingness to engage, signal a potential weakening of Western unity and sustained support, particularly from the US. This places a greater burden on Europe to sustain aid and sanctions. The aggressive response by Polish PM Tusk to any notion of denying Ukraine NATO membership highlights the perceived existential threat this poses to European security. Russia's hardline stance on negotiations, emphasizing unconditional surrender, indicates a lack of immediate desire for a diplomatic resolution on terms acceptable to Ukraine.

Technological adaptation remains crucial for both sides. Turkey's new AKKOR APS highlights advancements in armored vehicle survivability against modern threats like FPV drones, a critical lesson from the conflict. Russia's improvised armor and MLRS production, reliant on crowdfunding, suggests official supply chain gaps but also a resilient and adaptive grassroots support network. Claims of Russian anti-drone suits emphasize ongoing innovation in camouflage and counter-UAV measures. However, persistent challenges for Ukraine in mobilization and illegal border crossings could impact manpower. Russia's efforts to recruit naturalized migrants for military service also highlight its continued need for personnel.

The overall strategic outlook is one of continued high-intensity combat, with Russia seeking to achieve decisive breakthroughs and territorial gains, while Ukraine focuses on attriting Russian forces, conducting strategic counter-operations, and adapting technologically to maintain its defense, all within a complex and potentially shifting international diplomatic landscape. The reported Russian losses in Kursk and desertion figures, if accurate, point to significant human cost for Russia, which could impact long-term sustainability.

Recommendations

1. Exploit and Counter Russian Advances:

   • Immediately assess the veracity and strategic implications of the claimed Russian crossing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advances in Novonikolaevka. If confirmed, rapidly deploy countermeasures to stabilize the front line, interdict further advances, and secure key defensive positions.
   • Intensify intelligence gathering on Russian anti-drone suits and their effectiveness to develop countermeasures for Ukrainian drone operations.
   • Prioritize and accelerate the development and deployment of mobile, armored anti-drone and EW units to counter Russian FPV drone tactics, especially against unarmored logistics and personnel.

2. Sustain and Enhance Cross-Border Operations:

   • Continue and, where feasible, expand cross-border operations into Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts to maintain pressure on Russian forces, degrade their logistics, and tie down resources, consistent with the stated defensive objective.
   • Leverage successes in capturing Russian personnel to further replenish the prisoner exchange fund and pressure Russia for more exchanges.

3. Counter Russian Drone and KAB Campaigns:

   • Prioritize reinforcement of layered air defense systems, especially in areas targeted by extensive KAB and drone attacks (e.g., Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk).
   • Accelerate the deployment of advanced electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting Russian drone swarms and guided aerial bombs.
   • Implement dynamic and unpredictable dispersal tactics for military assets and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of widespread KAB and drone strikes.

4. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Proactively engage with European leaders to mitigate the impact of former President Trump's statements, reaffirming Ukraine's commitment to democratic values and its integration with Western structures. Highlight the direct security threats to European nations posed by Russia's maximalist goals.
   • Intensify public information campaigns to counter Russian narratives of "winning" and to highlight the human cost of the conflict, particularly Russian casualties.
   • Work with allies to ensure continued and robust sanctions pressure on Russia, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet" to degrade their economic capacity to wage war.

5. Optimize Manpower and Logistics:

   • Address mobilization challenges and combat evasion by reviewing recruitment strategies and implementing more effective and equitable methods.
   • Investigate and address issues related to the appropriation and sale of military property to ensure accountability and maintain morale.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, adapting supply chains to overcome Russian interdiction efforts and the challenges of improvised equipment.

6. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Innovation:

   • Fast-track the establishment of domestic arms production facilities, especially for drones, ammunition, and counter-drone systems, leveraging international investment and technology transfer (e.g., Turkish AKKOR components).
   • Continue investment in military-technological innovation, including advanced camouflage, electronic warfare, and drone development, to maintain a qualitative edge.

7. Humanitarian Response and Documentation:

   • Maintain robust humanitarian aid efforts in frontline and newly contested areas, providing medical and social support to affected civilians.
   • Meticulously document all civilian casualties and war crimes (including reports of POW execution orders) for international legal accountability.
   • Address concerns about alleged "fake generals" and issues within military leadership to maintain public and international trust.