Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation continues to be defined by high-intensity ground combat in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, alongside persistent Russian aerial and artillery attacks across various Ukrainian regions. Russian forces are employing costly "motorcycle assault" tactics in Kharkiv, while Ukrainian forces are leveraging precision FPV drone strikes for effective counter-action, demonstrated by a Ukrainian tank destruction near Kupyansk and successful targeting of Russian personnel on the Southern front. Russian air defenses are actively intercepting numerous Ukrainian drones, leading to temporary airport restrictions in Moscow.

A critical development on the information and political fronts is Russia's explicit territorial claim over Sumy Oblast, articulated by officials and echoed in pro-Kremlin media, alongside a narrative that the USSR's dissolution was "legally flawed," framing the conflict as an "internal process." Simultaneously, former US President Donald Trump's reported conviction of Russia's victory and his echoing of Kremlin talking points to European leaders pose a significant threat to Western unity and support for Ukraine.

The conflict's impact on civilian life remains severe. Ukrainian cities face persistent drone threats, while Russian regions are experiencing widespread mobile internet disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks, signifying the expanding reach of Ukrainian deep strike operations. Internal Russian societal strains are evident in discussions around legal and social impacts of the war and public fundraising for children in Donbas.

New intelligence indicates Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) are actively engaged in combat in Kharkiv Oblast and are equipped with heavy machine guns, showcasing their sustained operational readiness. Conversely, Russian VDV units in Zaporizhzhia are relying on crowdfunding for advanced drones, suggesting potential logistical gaps in high-end equipment. Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast with guided aerial bombs, causing casualties and extensive damage. Russian air defense continues to intercept drones over Moscow, leading to repeated airport closures. Diplomatic messaging remains contradictory, with Lavrov dismissing conditional ceasefires while Peskov pushes for a rapid "peace memorandum," adding complexity to negotiation prospects. A Russian presidential advisor's statement that the USSR legally still exists further solidifies the narrative of Ukraine as an internal process.

Major Updates

Intensified Combat and Drone Warfare

• FPV Drone Efficacy: Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes, neutralizing Russian personnel and destroying armored vehicles. Notably, a Ukrainian T-64 tank was catastrophically destroyed by a Russian FPV drone near Kupyansk (Kasyanovka), while Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used drones to precisely target Russian personnel, including those disembarking from boats. Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade demonstrates precision FPV drone strikes against entrenched Russian personnel and positions, including those protected by EW.
• Russian "Motorcycle Assaults": Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne in Kharkiv Oblast, incurring heavy personnel and light vehicle losses, yet maintaining offensive pressure. Russia is accumulating reserves in these areas, suggesting continued intent to establish a "buffer zone."
• Donetsk Front Advances: Russian "Vostok" Group claims advances of up to 2 km along the front and 1 km deep in forest belts near Otradnoe and Bogatyr (Southern-Donetsk direction). They also report clearing the northern part of Novopol and an area up to 500m deep. Rybar reports Russian forces have advanced into the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye on the Seversk direction, with Ukrainian forces retaining presence in the southern part; however, the situation is complex and neither side fully controls the village. Russian forces also advanced towards Grigoryevka near Belogorovka, clearing a chalk quarry.
• Widespread Russian Drone Interceptions: Russian air defense has reportedly destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, resulting in temporary "Carpet" flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo and other regional airports. At least three more drones were destroyed approaching Moscow.
• Ukrainian Air Defense Success: A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian "Shahed" drone during a night attack, showcasing effective aerial defense capabilities.
• Russian Offensive in Dnipropetrovsk direction: Russian "Center" Group units continue to advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, fighting for the western part of Novosergeevka and entering southern/southeastern Novonikolaevka. Attacks also continue towards Muravka. Fierce fighting is reported in Orekhovo, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Troitskoye, with battles continuing on its western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks are noted in these areas.
• Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Active: Photos from Kharkiv Oblast show members of the Ukrainian 113th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade operating, including with heavy machine guns, highlighting their active role in defending Kharkiv Oblast and protecting against Shahed drones and missiles.
• Russian Drone Resupply: Russian forces are using drones for unconventional resupply, including delivering cooked meals to soldiers in challenging forward positions, demonstrating adaptability in logistics.
• Ukrainian Ammunition Depot Destroyed: An epic explosion of a Russian ammunition depot after a Ukrainian FPV drone attack is reported in Novotroitskoye, Donetsk Oblast.

Escalation in Diplomatic and Information Warfare

• Russia's Explicit Territorial Ambitions (Sumy): A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger" and not live "like on a peninsula." Putin did not deny these goals, indicating direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas.
• "USSR Legally Still Exists" Narrative: A Russian presidential advisor asserted that the 1991 dissolution of the USSR was "legally flawed," implying the "Ukrainian crisis" is an "internal process" rather than an invasion. This provides a pseudo-legal justification for Russian aggression and denial of Ukrainian sovereignty.
• Trump's Stance on War: Bloomberg reports that former US President Donald Trump has informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning" and has repeated "Kremlin's talking points" after a phone call with Putin. This poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained support for Ukraine.
• Russian Rejection of Ceasefire Conditions: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Russia will not accept "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, accusing European leaders of "hysterically" demanding increased anti-Russian actions. This indicates Russia's hardened stance against conditional ceasefires. However, Peskov contradicts this by stating Russia is not delaying the peace process and is working on a ceasefire memorandum, highlighting conflicting messages from the Kremlin.
• "Museumification" of Destroyed Cities: Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed "DNR," stated that destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka might be "conserved" as "museums" to show the "tragic consequences of AFU attacks," a clear propaganda effort to control the narrative of destruction.
• Russian Accusations of Mercenary Recruitment: The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, claimed Ukraine recruits mercenaries through its embassies abroad, identifying over 3,300 from 70+ countries and stating that infrastructure supporting such recruitment is a "legitimate target."
• Zelenskyy-NATO Secretary General Call: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed the current situation, joint next steps, and the need for pressure on Russia with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. They talked about formats for continuing negotiations with Russia on a ceasefire and coordinated sanctions.
• German Chancellor's Assessment: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that there are no signs the war in Ukraine will end soon.
• Russian Claims of US Justifying "Star Wars" Revival: Russian official Kartapolov claims US statements about Russian space weapons are an attempt to justify the revival of Reagan's "Star Wars" program.

Domestic and International Developments

• Russian Mobile Internet Disruptions: Mobile internet access has been temporarily disabled in parts of Moscow Oblast and Tula Oblast, attributed by Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev to "safety" measures against Ukrainian drone attacks. This confirms the expanding reach and impact of Ukrainian deep strike operations.
• Ukrainian POW/MIA Support: The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for POWs and Missing Persons held a meeting with families of servicemen, discussing obstacles to return and the unconditional return of sick/wounded.
• Chechen Leadership Succession: Adam Kadyrov, son of Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, received his 26th award for contributions to Rosgvardia's OMON Akhmat-Krepost unit, including "active participation in the SVO," reinforcing his growing influence.
• Ukrainian Social Support for Military Personnel: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved extended social support for basic service and conscript military personnel, and their families, including those in captivity, treatment, or missing.
• Russian Economic Projections: Russian "Politburo" (inner leadership circle) has agreed on a gradual "fall" of the ruble to 140 rubles per US dollar by year-end, with experts anticipating "catastrophic" inflation.
• Russian Casualty Reporting: Bastrykin stated that since 2014, 5,649 civilians have died in Donbas due to Ukrainian aggression, with over 7,900 shelling incidents reported across 43 Russian regions.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Efforts: The 8th Detachment of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service is actively recruiting, using slogans like "Look at the World Differently" and emphasizing an "OFFENSIVE" posture, despite Berdyansk being occupied.
• Russian Humanitarian Aid Appeals: Public fundraising campaigns are underway in Russia to collect aid for children in Donbas and the "SVO zone."
• Middle East Tensions: Israeli forces reportedly opened fire on a diplomatic delegation (including EU, UK, Canada, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco representatives) and journalists visiting a refugee camp in Jenin, West Bank.
• Russian VDV Reliance on Crowdfunding for Drones: Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia direction showcased new DJI Inspire 2 drones, explicitly thanking crowdfunding sources ("Paratrooper's Diary" Telegram channel and "Two Majors" charitable foundation) for their acquisition. This highlights reliance on public donations for high-end ISR equipment.
• Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kharkiv Oblast: National Police of Ukraine reports one person killed and four injured in Russian attacks on Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Fires in residential areas in Kupyansk and a destroyed entrance of a three-story residential building in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from a guided aerial bomb. A man may be under the rubble. Images confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Civilian Casualty in Chernihiv Oblast: Chernihiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports a 28-year-old local man was killed by a Russian UAV attack from Russian territory in Novgorod-Siverskyi district on May 21, 2025, at 11:30. An investigation has been launched into a war crime.
• Russian DRG in Bryansk Borderland: Russian military sources claim a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (10-12 fighters) was detected and blocked in a forest in Trubchevsky and Vygonichsky districts of Bryansk borderland, attempting to retreat after failing their objectives. No large-scale breakthroughs reported.
• Internal Russian Dissatisfaction: A video shows a pro-Kremlin Russian citizen expressing extreme anger and frustration over a sewage-flooded WWII veterans' cemetery in Samara, accusing local authorities of disrespect and neglect. This highlights domestic discontent over infrastructure issues.
• Russian Internal Suppression: Criminal cases for "financing extremist activities" have been opened against journalist Alexander Nevzorov and his wife. Their family was previously deemed an "extremist organization," and property was confiscated. This indicates a tightening of internal controls and suppression of dissent.
• Russian Municipal Modernization: Moscow reports opening a new electric depot and deploying new metro trains, aiming to replace all old trains by 2026. This showcases continued investment in civilian infrastructure, aiming to project normalcy.
• Lipetsk Election & AI Focus: Lipetsk's governor, Igor Artamonov, announced doubled funding for district improvements and training 150 young people on AI's role in organizing elections (e.g., ballot processing), highlighting the integration of AI into civic processes.
• Russian Diplomatic Engagement in Armenia: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Armenian Foreign Minister Pashinyan in Yerevan, signaling continued Russian diplomatic activity and influence in the South Caucasus.
• Russian Fundraising for Artillery & Drones: A Russian "People's Front" campaign, led by military correspondent Alexander Kots, is fundraising for artillery units, specifically for drones, stating "drones have long been consumables, and they are always in short supply." The campaign acknowledges the conflict will be "long."

Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a war of attrition. Russia continues its efforts to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses through relentless, costly ground assaults and extensive aerial bombardment. Ukraine, however, maintains tactical initiative with its precision FPV drone operations, inflicting significant material and personnel losses on Russian forces and extending the reach of its attacks into Russian territory. The increasing reach of Ukrainian drone strikes into Russian territory, causing civilian disruption, highlights Kyiv's growing ability to impose costs on the Russian hinterland and influence the domestic information environment. The observed reliance of Russian VDV units on crowdfunding for advanced drones underscores potential logistical challenges within the Russian military for high-end equipment.

Diplomatic and information warfare are deeply integrated with military objectives. Russia's explicit territorial claims over Sumy and its narrative of Ukraine's illegitimate statehood (USSR's dissolution flawed) confirm Moscow's maximalist war aims, rendering any conditional ceasefire highly improbable. Conflicting statements from Lavrov and Peskov on negotiations add complexity and uncertainty. Former US President Trump's reported statements, if accurate, could critically undermine Western unity and support for Ukraine, necessitating proactive Ukrainian diplomatic efforts to counter such narratives.

The resilience of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including the strategic adaptation to build underground schools in frontline cities like Zaporizhzhia, and sustained support for military personnel, are crucial for national cohesion. Conversely, internal Russian economic challenges, allegations of mercenary recruitment, propaganda efforts like the "museumification" of war-torn cities, and domestic discontent over neglected infrastructure reveal the societal strains and narrative control driving Moscow's war. The broader international context, including Russian diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus and concerns about internal dissent, adds complexity to global security and resource allocation for Ukraine.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Counter-UAV Capabilities and Tactics:

   • Prioritize rapid deployment and integration of advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) systems to disrupt Russian FPV drone operations across all active fronts, particularly in Zaporizhzhia where new high-end Russian ISR drones are being deployed.
   • Increase production and distribution of low-cost, effective counter-UAV measures (e.g., FPV interceptors, anti-drone rifles) to frontline units.
   • Develop and disseminate adaptive tactics to counter Russian "motorcycle assaults," exploiting their vulnerabilities to maximize Russian casualties.

2. Strengthen Multi-layered Air Defense, especially in Border Regions:

   • Accelerate acquisition and integration of more robust air defense systems to protect major cities and critical infrastructure from continuous Shahed drone and KAB attacks, specifically reinforcing defenses in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts against cross-border drone and guided bomb attacks.
   • Optimize coordination between ground-based and aerial air defense assets, including fighter intercepts, to improve interception rates.

3. Fortify Defensive Lines and Sustain Combat Operations:

   • Allocate additional engineering and defensive resources to critical areas under intense Russian pressure (e.g., Donetsk: Otradnoe, Bogatyr, Novopol, Seversk; Kharkiv: Vovchansk, Dvorychne; Dnipropetrovsk: Novosergeevka, Novonikolaevka, Orekhovo) to consolidate defensive gains and mitigate further advances.
   • Ensure robust force protection measures against both manned and unmanned aerial threats for all forward-deployed personnel.
   • Prioritize resupply of FPV drones and other consumables to units like the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, given their demonstrated effectiveness in precision strikes.

4. Proactive Information Warfare and Diplomatic Engagement:

   • Launch a comprehensive information campaign to counter Russian narratives on Ukrainian statehood, "internal processes," and the "illegitimacy" of the USSR's dissolution, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty, international law, and the human cost of Russian aggression.
   • Actively engage international partners and public opinion to expose and mitigate the impact of external narratives that align with Russian war aims (e.g., Trump's statements), emphasizing the critical need for sustained aid and unified condemnation.
   • Amplify documented successes of Ukrainian forces (e.g., FPV drone precision strikes, successful air intercepts) and highlight Russian military limitations (e.g., reliance on crowdfunding for advanced equipment) to boost domestic morale and demonstrate operational effectiveness to international partners.
   • Disseminate information on Russian internal issues (e.g., neglected infrastructure, suppression of dissent) to underscore societal strains within Russia.

5. Prioritize Personnel Welfare and Strategic Mobilization:

   • Ensure swift and comprehensive implementation of new social support measures for military personnel and their families to maintain morale and address critical needs.
   • Continuously adapt and enhance recruitment efforts for all branches, including the Border Guard Service and Territorial Defense Forces, leveraging strong national identity and public support while ensuring ethical and lawful processes.
   • Strengthen internal oversight of recruitment to maintain public trust and prevent abuses.

6. Humanitarian Response and Civilian Protection:

   • Prioritize resources for rapid humanitarian response to civilian areas affected by Russian attacks, particularly in Kupyansk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and Chernihiv Oblast.
   • Continue and expand initiatives like the construction of underground schools to protect civilian life and maintain educational continuity in frontline cities like Zaporizhzhia.