Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation continues to be characterized by intense, multi-front combat, driven by both Russian ground offensives and widespread aerial bombardment, and aggressive Ukrainian counter-strikes deep into Russian territory. Russian forces are maintaining pressure on key axes, particularly Donetsk, and are attempting to interdict Ukrainian movements and logistics. A significant internal Russian development is the widespread disruption of mobile internet access in Moscow and Tula Oblasts, directly attributed by Russian authorities to safety measures against ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks. This indicates the escalating reach and impact of Ukrainian deep strike operations on Russian civilian life and critical infrastructure.

Ukrainian forces demonstrate continued tactical adaptability and resilience, highlighted by successful precision drone strikes against Russian equipment (e.g., EW systems, fortified positions, and even enemy personnel in water crossings), as well as effective counter-UAV operations. However, the conflict remains extremely costly, with significant casualties on both sides and continued targeting of critical infrastructure.

The information environment is highly contested, with intense propaganda efforts from both sides aiming to shape narratives around battlefield successes, casualties, and internal issues. Diplomatic discourse continues to be fraught, with Russia maintaining a hardened stance against conditional ceasefires and Ukraine reiterating its non-negotiable "red lines" for sovereignty and national identity. The direct impact of military actions on civilian life in both Ukraine and Russia is increasingly evident.

Major Updates

Escalating Ukrainian Deep Strike Operations and Russian Defensive Measures

• Mobile Internet Disruption in Russia: Mobile internet access has been disabled in parts of Moscow Oblast and Tula Oblast, explicitly attributed by Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev to "safety" reasons due to "enemy aerial attacks" and over 80 drone interceptions (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны). This confirms the widespread and impactful nature of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, now directly affecting civilian services in major regions and the capital's vicinity.
• Widespread Russian Airspace Restrictions: Temporary flight restrictions ("Carpet" plans) have been re-imposed at Moscow's Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports for the second time today, along with similar restrictions at Kaluga, Yaroslavl, and Kostroma airports, due to detected UAVs (Новости Москвы, ТАСС, ASTRA). This indicates continuous and significant Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian airspace.
• Confirmed Strike on Russian EW System: Ukrainian "Phoenix" border guard unit (Прикордонний загін Фенікс) claims the destruction of a Russian R-330Zh "Zhitel" electronic warfare (EW) system in "BNR" (likely Belgorod People's Republic, referring to Belgorod Oblast) using an FPV kamikaze drone (STERNENKO). This is a critical tactical success for Ukraine, degrading Russian EW capabilities which are vital for drone operations and communications. The unit appeals for donations for "rusoriz."
• New Russian Drone Interception Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction or interception of 34 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Oryol (15), Kursk (7), Tula (6), Moscow region (3), Ryazan (2), and Bryansk (1) Oblasts between 11:30 and 15:00 Moscow time (Два майора). This follows earlier claims of 159 UAVs shot down overnight, indicating persistent Ukrainian aerial attacks.
• Finland Utilizes AI for Border Surveillance: Finland will implement AI-powered cameras on its border with Russia, capable of distinguishing people approaching the border (ТАСС, citing Yle). This signifies enhanced border security measures in response to the current geopolitical climate and potential border challenges.

Intense Ground Combat and Aerial Activity on Frontlines

• Donetsk Oblast: High Intensity Combat: The Ukrainian General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) reports 65 combat engagements since the start of the day.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active, with 27 engagements near Yablunivka, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenskoye, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Troitske, and Kotlyarivka. Five engagements are ongoing.
  • Novopavlivsk Direction: Aggressor attempted to advance 10 times near Bahatyr, Otradne, Shevchenko, Rivnopil, Novopil, and Zelene Pole. One battle is ongoing.
  • Lyman Direction: Nine engagements near Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, towards Novoserhiivka, Olhivka, Novy Mir, and in Serebryansky forest. Three battles are ongoing.
  • Toretsk Direction: Russian forces attacked 8 times near Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk. Two engagements are ongoing.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Two attacks near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne.
  • Siversk Direction: Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions twice near Bilohorivka.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian defenders repelled two attacks near Vovchansk and towards Mala Shapivka (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). One attack was repelled in the Kupyansk direction near Kindrashivka. Civilian casualties reported in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi due to a guided aerial bomb (KAB) strike, resulting in one fatality and two injuries (STERNENKO). A building entrance was destroyed and a fire occurred in Kupyansk from shelling, injuring two more women.
• Sumy Oblast: Missile Strikes and Shelling:
  • Explosions and Missile Threat: Explosions reported in Sumy city (РБК-Україна) after Air Force warnings of missile threats (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Missiles were observed heading towards Nedryhailiv and Romny, and later towards Terny.
  • Cross-border Fire: Russian artillery shelled Zarichchya, Hrinivka (Chernihiv Oblast), Prokhody, Romashkove, Zarichne, Bunyakine, Myropilske, Porozok, Hrabovske, Bachivsk, Novovasyilivka (Sumy Oblast).
  • Russian Claims of Strikes: Russian sources claim 26 strikes on military objects, with particular focus on reserves transferred to Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). They claim hits on a training ground in Shostka, as well as personnel deployment points and infrastructure in Konotop, Sumy district, and Sumy city itself, leading to power outages and logistics disruptions.
  • Russian Persistent Action: Russian forces continue to "process" Sumy Oblast daily due to its proximity to the border and military objects (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three Russian attempts to advance in Chervone (Huliaipilskyi direction) with one ongoing battle. Russian aviation used unguided aerial missiles (NARs) on Huliaipole, Vysoke, and Novoandriivka (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). Russian forces claim the situation is stagnant near Stepove due to numerous Ukrainian drones, making resupply difficult (Два майора).
• Ukrainian Drone Precision Strikes: Ukrainian FPV drones from the "Bakhmut Balu" unit successfully targeted and killed two individuals (likely Russian soldiers, one with a red armband) near Bakhmut (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). The 82nd Air Assault Brigade (Ukrainian) is actively using drones to "dump TM-62M mines" (likely modified for drone dropping) on enemy positions (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Ukrainian Marine Infantry (34th Coastal Defense Brigade) demonstrates precision drone strikes against enemy checkpoints, concealed vehicles, and personnel crossing water obstacles, highlighting effective anti-mobility and anti-personnel operations (Сили оборони Півдня України).

Information Warfare and Domestic Developments

• Russian Propaganda and Support Measures:
  • Soldier Heroism Narrative: Colonelcassad details the story of an 18-year-old grenadier from Tuva, Sotpa Shalgan ("Shaman"), who allegedly sacrificed himself by drawing enemy drone fire to save 9 comrades on the Pokrovsk direction. He was posthumously awarded the Order of Courage. This serves as a powerful narrative to boost morale, encourage recruitment, and legitimize sacrifices (Colonelcassad). RT (state media) actively propagates this story.
  • Military Museum Fundraising: The "Museum of the Special Military Operation" in St. Petersburg is appealing for 800,000 rubles to cover two months of rent, highlighting its role in patriotic education for youth, connecting generations, and promoting the official narrative of the conflict (Два майора). This suggests reliance on public/private donations for key propaganda initiatives.
  • Support for SVO Participants: Moscow Oblast is introducing a new annual payment of 24,000 rubles for taxi services, starting July 1, for disabled SVO participants (wheelchair users, prosthetics, blindness) and their disabled children (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). This is part of 29 regional social support measures, aimed at bolstering morale and demonstrating care for veterans.
  • Defense Industry Propaganda: WarGonzo features a story about a "Muggle" (Harry Potter fan) soldier in Kursk forests, humanizing combatants and promoting heroism for ordinary people, linking it to the ongoing conflict (WarGonzo).
  • Border Infrastructure Resilience: The Governor of Bryansk Oblast, AV BogomaZ, highlights the resilience of the Bryansk branch of the Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Network (RTRS) which, despite daily Ukrainian attacks, maintains almost uninterrupted broadcasting with support from FSB and other security services. This is a propaganda effort to show robustness against Ukrainian efforts to disrupt information (AV БогомаZ).
  • "Rubikon" Drone Video: Russian MoD's "Rubikon" unit releases a comprehensive video showcasing FPV drone strikes on various Ukrainian assets, including "Baba Yaga" drones, Western vehicles (HMMWV, M113, Bergepanzer 2), artillery (2S3 Akatsiya, BM-21 Grad, AS-90), command posts, and Starlink terminals. This demonstrates advanced targeting and psychological operations (Colonelcassad).
• Ukrainian Concerns and Diplomatic Stance:
  • "No New Memorandum" for Ukraine: Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, states that any "memorandum" proposed by Russia will not be new and will effectively mean "Ukraine must cease to exist," by demanding abandonment of sovereignty, demilitarization, and territorial cessions beyond current occupation. He emphasizes that the "source of war is Russia" (РБК-Україна). This reinforces Ukraine's hardline stance against Russian ultimatums.
  • US Senate Disagreement on Ukraine/Gaza: Senator Chris Van Hollen accuses Secretary of State Marco Rubio of "betraying the Ukrainian people" and acting as a "puppet of Vladimir Putin" regarding efforts to end the war, and criticized his handling of Gaza and sensitive US AI/shipbuilding technology transfers in the Persian Gulf. Rubio countered with personal attacks (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This highlights internal US political divisions affecting foreign policy.
• Russia's Hardened Stance on Ceasefires: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states Russia will no longer accept "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, accusing Macron, Starmer, and other European leaders of "hysterically" demanding increased anti-Russian actions and sanctions to allow Ukraine to rearm (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns). Lavrov demands an "unconditional truce," emphasizing that Russia will not accept a pause in hostilities that allows Ukraine to regroup.
• Public Health Concerns: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration warns about Hepatitis A outbreak in Kyiv linked to contaminated water/food, highlighting public health risks potentially exacerbated by damaged infrastructure in wartime (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦).
• Domestic Russian Fraud: Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs warns of new Telegram fraud schemes where scammers use synonyms for "safe account" to trick people into transferring funds (ТАСС, Новости Москвы).

Strategic Outlook

The strategic landscape remains volatile, defined by Russia's relentless pursuit of territorial gains and infrastructure degradation, coupled with Ukraine's escalating deep strike capabilities and adaptive defensive posture. The confirmed Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Sumy Oblast underscores Ukrainian OPSEC vulnerabilities and Russia's precision strike capacity, while the widespread mobile internet outages in central Russia highlight the increasing effectiveness and strategic impact of Ukrainian drone operations on Russian domestic stability.

Russia's diplomatic rhetoric, as articulated by Lavrov, indicates a deep distrust of conditional ceasefires and a clear intent to continue military pressure until its objectives are met without external stipulations. Ukraine's strong rejection of Russia's maximalist demands, as voiced by Podolyak, signals its unwavering commitment to sovereignty and continued resistance, suggesting that a diplomatic resolution remains distant unless Russia significantly alters its war aims.

Both sides are heavily engaged in information warfare, seeking to control narratives, boost internal morale, and influence international perceptions. Russia's efforts to humanize its soldiers and promote patriotism (e.g., "Shaman" narrative, military museums) indicate a long-term strategy for internal mobilization and support. Conversely, Ukraine's strategic drone strikes serve to demonstrate capability and impose costs on Russia. The civilian impact, from energy outages in Sumy to drone debris in Kyiv and KAB strikes in Kupyansk, highlights the human cost of the conflict and the constant need for civilian protection.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities in Depth:

   • Prioritize the rapid deployment and integration of all available air defense systems, including the newly promised SAMP-T, to create layered defenses over critical civilian infrastructure, energy facilities, and training grounds, particularly in border regions and around Kyiv.
   • Intensify development and deployment of mobile counter-UAV units equipped with EW systems and FPV interceptors to counter pervasive Russian drone attacks.
   • Implement immediate and robust OPSEC protocols for all troop concentrations, training facilities, and logistical hubs, emphasizing dispersion and concealment, especially in areas vulnerable to Russian precision strikes.

2. Sustain and Expand Deep Strike Capabilities:

   • Continue and escalate precision drone strikes on Russian military-industrial complex targets and critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory, leveraging intelligence from successes like the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant strike.
   • Analyze Russian countermeasures to drone attacks (e.g., mobile internet shutdowns, increased air defense) to develop adaptive tactics and circumvent new defenses.
   • Prioritize development and procurement of "rusoriz" and other advanced drone systems for continued effectiveness against high-value Russian EW assets and fortified positions.

3. Reinforce Frontline Defenses and Force Protection:

   • Allocate additional resources, including advanced EW systems and counter-drone measures, to high-intensity areas like Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivsk directions to mitigate Russian advances and protect personnel.
   • Implement advanced engineering and fortification techniques to create more resilient defensive positions against artillery, guided bombs, and precision drone strikes.
   • Disseminate lessons learned from successful Ukrainian precision drone strikes (e.g., Marine Infantry tactics) across units to improve offensive and defensive drone warfare.

4. Counter Information Warfare and Maintain Civilian Resilience:

   • Develop proactive and agile communication strategies to counter Russian narratives about "unconditional truces" and "Ukrainian existential demands," clearly articulating Ukraine's non-negotiable sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Highlight Russian domestic vulnerabilities (e.g., internet shutdowns, internal security issues) to expose the costs of the conflict within Russia and counter their propaganda efforts.
   • Strengthen public health and emergency response capabilities in civilian areas to mitigate the impact of infrastructure damage and disease outbreaks, ensuring essential services are restored swiftly.

5. Strengthen International Support and Clarify Diplomatic Red Lines:

   • Engage closely with international partners to ensure sustained military aid, leveraging the urgency created by intensified Russian offensives and precision strikes.
   • Maintain a clear and unified diplomatic message regarding Ukraine's "red lines" for any negotiation, emphasizing that national sovereignty, language, and faith are non-negotiable, while also acknowledging the complex path to peace.
   • Monitor internal political dynamics in supporting countries (e.g., US Senate debates) to anticipate potential shifts in aid and diplomatic approaches.