Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation continues to be characterized by intense ground combat across various fronts, with Russia making confirmed advances in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts. This aggressive offensive is supported by widespread and sustained Russian aerial assaults, primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), targeting critical infrastructure and military positions deep within Ukrainian territory. A significant new development is the confirmed fire and explosion at Bila Tserkva Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast, with two reported fatalities, highlighting Russia's ongoing strategy of targeting critical energy infrastructure. This incident is widely disseminated by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, often with conflicting narratives regarding cause and blame, reflecting a key aspect of information warfare.

Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defense and counter-operations, employing highly effective drone units (e.g., "Ghost of Khortytsia," "SKALA 425," "91st Separate Anti-tank Battalion") for precision strikes, reconnaissance, and even developing specialized motorcycle-mounted assault companies for rapid tactical maneuver. Fundraising efforts by Ukrainian volunteer groups for essential military equipment, such as pickup trucks and FPV drones, underscore the crucial role of civilian support in sustaining combat capabilities. Cross-border drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory continue, leading to reported air defense engagements and internal security concerns in oblasts like Bryansk, Yaroslavl, Kostroma, and Moscow.

Information warfare remains a prominent feature of the conflict, with both sides actively shaping narratives around battlefield successes, casualties, and alleged atrocities. The assassination of former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov in Madrid continues to generate significant information warfare from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, with each side promoting narratives that support their political agendas. Ukrainian authorities are also taking legal action against Russian propagandists, further demonstrating the multi-domain nature of the conflict.

Major Updates

Confirmed Fire and Fatalities at Bila Tserkva Thermal Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast

• Incident: A large-scale fire and explosion occurred at the Bila Tserkva Thermal Power Plant (TEЦ) in Kyiv Oblast.
• Casualties: Two fatalities reported by Ukrainian emergency services (DSNS).
• Cause: While Ukrainian sources (DSNS, Bila Tserkva City Territorial Community) report the fire occurred at a "non-operating cooling tower" during "repair work," Russian sources (e.g., Kotsnews, Operation Z: Voenkorry Russkoy Vesny, Alex Parker Returns) broadly imply a military strike or attribute it to "Ukrainians themselves," and frame it as evidence of an "energy deal." The scale of the incident, the location in a conflict zone, and the wartime context strongly suggest a missile or drone attack.
• Strategic Impact: This represents a significant blow to Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, potentially causing power disruptions and undermining civilian morale. It aligns with Russia's strategy of degrading Ukrainian energy capabilities and highlights the ongoing targeting of critical civilian infrastructure. The conflicting narratives underscore the intense information warfare surrounding such events.

Assassination of Andriy Portnov in Madrid Fuels Information Warfare

• Victim: Andriy Portnov, former advisor to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, was assassinated in Madrid, Spain.
• Details: Multiple gunshot wounds, including a fatal shot to the head. Assailants (two or three) remain at large. Spanish authorities are investigating motives, including debts or political reasons.
• Information Warfare (Russian Narrative): Russian sources (Operation Z: Voenkorry Russkoy Vesny, Colonelcassad) are broadly attributing the assassination to "Kyiv" or "Zelensky's regime," claiming it's an "extrajudicial execution" of someone possessing "dangerous information" about Kyiv's ties to Yanukovych's administration and links to criminal elements. They suggest it was intended to "cut off" negative information flows or "drown out" other negative informational events for Kyiv.
• Information Warfare (Ukrainian Narrative): Ukrainian sources (STERNENKO) are satirically celebrating or denying involvement, confirming the killing. Some Ukrainian channels have previously used derogatory language towards Portnov.
• Strategic Impact: The assassination highlights the ongoing, aggressive information warfare between Ukraine and Russia, and potential extrajudicial actions against figures associated with the previous Ukrainian regime. It could destabilize political discourse and fuel international tensions.

EU Agrees to €150 Billion Militarization Fund

• Decision: European Union ambassadors have agreed to establish the "SAFE" instrument, which allows for borrowing up to €150 billion for investment in the European defense industry.
• Rationale: The initiative aims to "increase investment in European defense capabilities" and "deter those who wish us harm," explicitly referencing security concerns.
• Strategic Impact: This marks a major, long-term strategic shift by the EU towards strengthening its collective defense and military preparedness. It signifies a significant financial commitment to enhance European strategic autonomy and resilience in the face of perceived threats, indirectly benefiting Ukraine and bolstering the broader European security architecture.

Confirmed Russian Advances and Intense Ground Combat

• ISW Confirmation: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirms Russian advances in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts, signaling a broad and concerted offensive effort.
  • Sumy Oblast: Advances near Tetkino (claimed control, field fortifications), significant fighting near Ryzhivka, and further advances in southwestern Loknya.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Substantial advances into Vovchansk (northwestern part controlled, ongoing advances in eastern part), and limited localized incursions into Sumy Oblast from Belgorod direction with established Russian field fortifications near the border.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Ongoing offensive operations and tactical advances around Stepove, Nesteryanka, and towards Verbove; advances along the T-08-15 highway south of Bilohiria; extensive Russian field fortifications.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar and Toretsk): Multi-pronged offensive towards Chasiv Yar with recent advances north of Kalynivka; intense fighting around Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. Russian forces advanced north of Toretsk, leading to intense fighting within and around the city.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Significant Russian offensive pressure with recent territorial gains across multiple axes; active fighting concentrated near Kotlyne, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and along key logistical routes like the M-30 highway.
• Russian Tactical Adaptation and Claims:
  • Russian forces are employing "anti-drone suits" for thermal and visual invisibility during advances (e.g., near Novoaleksandrovka), integrated with drone-infantry tactics where reconnaissance and strike drones precede ground clearing operations.
  • Russian MoD claims significant personnel and equipment losses for Ukrainian forces across various groupings ("North," "West," "South," "Center," "East," "Dnepr") and specific advances (e.g., liberation of Novoaleksandrovka, occupying more advantageous lines near Chasiv Yar, advances on the Konstantinovka direction, destruction of Ukrainian transport and armored vehicles).
  • Russian sources confirm a "Kornet" ATGM crew destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk and a TOS Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower strike on Ukrainian positions on the South Donetsk direction.
• Ukrainian Reports: DeepState reports a worsening situation for Ukrainian forces near Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Novosilka, citing Russian infantry groups maintaining pressure and exploiting weak points. Ukrainian forces are engaged in active defense and reconnaissance. OTU "Kharkiv" reports successful nighttime precision strikes by their "Achilles" drone unit. Ukrainian intelligence reports Russia is accumulating troops near the border, preparing for active assault actions towards Kharkiv Oblast.

Widespread Drone Activity and Electronic Warfare (EW)

• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities:
  • Ukrainian "Achilles" and "Tomiko" drone units demonstrate high effectiveness in nighttime precision strikes against Russian logistics and armored vehicles in Kharkiv Oblast, destroying 2 trucks, 1 tank, 1 armored vehicle, 3 cargo vehicles, a "Bukhanka" vehicle, and neutralizing 3 Russian personnel, a motorboat, and a motorcycle.
  • The "Ghost of Khortytsia" Unmanned Systems Battalion showcases highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian infantry and fortifications, confirming enemy neutralization.
  • The Ukrainian 91st Separate Anti-tank Battalion is utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting, enhancing their anti-armor capabilities.
  • Ukrainian General Staff highlights the dedication and skill of a Ukrainian drone operator ("Hamarich") working on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, using personal funds for training and equipment.
  • Ukrainian Special Purpose units are fundraising for a pickup truck for operations on the northern direction, underlining reliance on civilian support for essential equipment for drone teams.
  • Ukrainian "Darknode" unit of Unmanned Systems Forces claims shooting down 100 Russian drones ("Shaheds" and "Gerbers") using interceptor drones, demonstrating enhanced counter-drone capabilities.
• Russian Drone Capabilities:
  • Extensive Russian drone activity continues across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with new threats identified in Donetsk Oblast (towards Kramatorsk), Zhytomyr Oblast, and Cherkasy Oblast.
  • UAVs noted in eastern Sumy Oblast (southwest course), northern Poltava Oblast (west course), northern Kyiv Oblast (west course), and on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts (west course).
  • In Sumy, explosions reported with initial hits on enterprises by "Shaheds," leading to power outages and one injured civilian.
  • Russian military bloggers ("ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ," "Rubikon Centre") showcase UAV crews targeting Ukrainian equipment and personnel, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank in Sumy direction using FPV drones (even if already damaged).
  • Russian VDV units are receiving DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones and range extenders through crowdfunding, enhancing their reconnaissance capabilities.
  • Russian forces are using "anti-drone suits" for thermal invisibility in advances, indicating adaptation to counter-drone threats.
  • Russian military bloggers report successfully shooting down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drones. Russian sources claim FPV drones can now reach Mezheva in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating extended range and potential targeting of Ukrainian logistics.
  • Russian MoD reports intercepting at least 42 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones (30 over Oryol, 3 over Ryazan, 2 over Kursk, 1 each over Belgorod, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Crimea, and 3 over Moscow Oblast), confirming widespread Ukrainian cross-border activity.
• Air Defense Claims:
  • Russian MoD and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin report three Ukrainian drones attacking Moscow, all repelled by air defense, with fragments falling on a kindergarten in Domodedovo (no casualties/damage to kindergarten).
  • Air defense systems are actively engaged in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, with explosions reported.
• Strategic Impact: The pervasive use of drones by both sides fundamentally shapes battlefield dynamics, requiring continuous adaptation in tactics, counter-drone systems, and electronic warfare capabilities. Deep strikes into Russian territory demonstrate Ukrainian reach, while Russian counter-attacks and enhanced drone capabilities indicate an escalating aerial dimension to the conflict.

Ukrainian Military Adapts with Motorcycle Assault Companies

• New Unit Formation: Ukraine has established its first motorcycle assault company, the 425th Separate Assault Battalion "SKALA."
• Tactical Purpose: The unit's primary task is rapid breakthrough to enemy positions, assault actions, and swift changes in attack direction.
• Intensive Training: The video showcases rigorous daily training (up to 14 hours), focusing on driving skills, tactics, live-fire drills, and team coordination.
• Strategic Impact: This development signifies a strategic adaptation by Ukraine to enhance mobility and agility on the battlefield. Motorcycle units can potentially bypass traditional defensive lines, conduct rapid infiltration/exfiltration, and execute hit-and-run tactics, offering a low-signature, high-speed advantage in contested terrain. This also indicates continued Ukrainian innovation in ground warfare.

Russian Airport Restrictions and Internal Security Concerns

• Airport Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on operations imposed at Yaroslavl and Kostroma airports, with reports of a "Carpet" plan indicating potential drone threats. Kaluga airport restrictions have been lifted.
• Cross-Border Incursion: Russian sources (Colonelcassad) report a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) of up to 10 people attempted to reach Bryansk city, engaged in a firefight near Subbotovo and Myakishevo, and were blocked by Rosgvardia. Local authorities reported temporary road closures. The DRG is reportedly attempting to retreat to the border. This highlights continued Ukrainian cross-border activity and Russia's internal security challenges, forcing diversion of security resources.
• Law Enforcement and Criminality: FSB in DPR detained a woman suspected of financing Ukrainian forces (state treason). Prison escape of two convicted criminals occurred during transport in Khimki, Moscow Oblast; they were later apprehended. A 16-year-old was sentenced to 6 years for arson of "United Russia" office in Arkhangelsk (terrorism charge). Mass conflicts between teenagers are reported in Makhachkala, Dagestan. FSB uncovered a state defense order fraud scheme exceeding 1 billion rubles in Rostov Oblast. Former head of "Rusagro" arrested for large-scale fraud.
• Strategic Impact: These incidents underscore ongoing internal security challenges within Russia, including drone incursions, sabotage attempts, and criminal activity, which divert resources and attention from the main conflict.

Ukraine Investigates 47th Brigade Commander's Allegations

• Allegations: A commander of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade ("Magura"), Oleksandr Shirshin, publicly stated that assignments in Kursk Oblast and along the Ukrainian-Russian border were "doomed to fail" and exposed personnel to "unjustified losses." He claims his appeals to command were largely ignored.
• Response: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has created a working group to investigate these allegations.
• Strategic Impact: This signals internal concerns within the Ukrainian military regarding operational planning, leadership decisions, and the welfare of personnel. While such investigations are necessary for accountability and improvement, public allegations can impact troop morale and public confidence. It highlights the immense pressure and difficult decisions faced by commanders in high-intensity combat zones.

Continued Information Warfare and International Diplomacy

• SBU Charges Russian Propagandist: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has announced new legal charges (in absentia) against prominent Russian propagandist Dmitry Kiselev for "documenting new crimes," including promoting armed aggression and justifying war crimes. This action demonstrates Ukraine's active engagement in the information domain.
• EU Sanctions: The EU has agreed to establish a €150 billion militarization fund ("SAFE" instrument) for investment in European defense industry. The EU also shifts sanctions burden of proof to Russian oligarchs, placing the onus on them to prove their lack of connection to the conflict.
• Turkey-Ukraine Military Cooperation: Turkey's FDI Group is reportedly supplying Ukraine with military equipment including AI-integrated fire control systems, and allegedly involved in selling Ukrainian tanks.
• Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish PM Tusk discussed presidential elections, peace steps, and EU membership clusters with Zelenskyy, emphasizing Poland's role as a crucial partner. Tusk also reported "suspicious maneuvers" of a sanctioned Russian "shadow fleet" ship near a Polish-Swedish underwater cable, prompting Polish military intervention.
• US-Ukraine Relations: US Secretary of State Rubio suggested that new US sanctions could make Russia withdraw from peace talks, emphasizing the US desire to maintain dialogue. Rybar reports on changing Western attitudes towards Zelenskyy, anticipating calls for elections or his departure. Russian sources are claiming a Trump administration plan to deport over 200,000 Ukrainians. Zelenskyy reportedly sent a letter to Trump with new proposals for cooperation in the defense industry and trade.
• Russia-Syria Relations: Russia (Rybar) comments on US Secretary of State Rubio's statements on Syria's instability and the past US support for militant groups, attempting to frame US policy as destabilizing.
• Russia-Armenia Relations: Lavrov discussed economic and security cooperation, and the upcoming "3+3" format meeting (Russia interested in Armenia's active CSTO participation).
• Moldova-Russia Relations: TASS reports that Gagauzia leadership (Gutsul) will not allow her removal and remains under house arrest.
• Finland-Russia Relations: Finland should compensate Rosatom for Hinkhikivi NPP project halt.
• Strategic Initiatives: Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" air defense system (costing $175 billion over three years) aims to counter hypersonic, ballistic, cruise missiles, and drones, involving ground, sea, and space platforms, radars, and command centers. China's MFA has reacted, calling for an end to this project due to space militarization and an arms race.
• Humanitarian Efforts: A large-scale body exchange has taken place, with Ukraine receiving 909 bodies and Russia 34. The Coordination Headquarters for POWs is actively addressing issues, including preparing for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange.

Strategic Outlook

The strategic landscape is marked by escalating Russian offensive pressure and territorial gains across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts. This push is strongly supported by an intense and widespread aerial campaign targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, exemplified by the Bila Tserkva TPP incident, aiming to degrade Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and civilian life. Russia's adaptive tactical innovations, such as "anti-drone suits" and drone-infantry synergy, indicate a determined and evolving adversary.

Ukraine's strategic response focuses on robust defense, innovative tactical adaptations (e.g., motorcycle assault companies, advanced drone warfare), and sustained international diplomatic and financial support. The continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone units in precision strikes and counter-drone operations highlights a critical asymmetric advantage. The reliance on volunteer fundraising for essential military equipment underscores the deep societal commitment to the war effort and the complementary nature of grassroots support to official logistics.

Information warfare remains integral to the conflict, with both sides actively shaping narratives, as seen in the conflicting reports around the Bila Tserkva incident and the assassination of Andriy Portnov. Ukraine's legal actions against Russian propagandists demonstrate a multi-domain approach to the conflict, extending beyond kinetic engagements.

The EU's substantial €150 billion defense fund signals a major long-term commitment to European defense, which will profoundly impact the security architecture and Ukraine's ability to receive sustained support. Concurrently, internal challenges for both sides, such as internal military dissent and security concerns in Russia, continue to affect their capacity and resilience. The ongoing diplomatic overtures and discussions around peace negotiations (e.g., US proposals, Trump's engagement) are inextricably linked to the military realities on the ground, suggesting that any resolution will be heavily influenced by battlefield dynamics and political leverage. The increased Russian activity in border regions and reported DRG incursions signal a potential for expanded military operations beyond the immediate front lines, requiring continued Ukrainian vigilance and defensive preparedness.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Integrated Air Defense and Infrastructure Hardening: Implement immediate, dynamic re-allocation of air defense assets to protect critical energy and industrial infrastructure, particularly in high-threat oblasts like Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Explore innovative hardening solutions and distributed generation capabilities for resilience.
2. Sustain and Expand Asymmetric Capabilities: Prioritize investment in and deployment of advanced drone technologies, including FPV kamikaze drones, reconnaissance UAVs, and interceptor drones, to maintain and expand Ukraine's tactical overmatch against Russian ground forces and aerial assets. Support and scale initiatives for modular, adaptable drone platforms.
3. Optimize Tactical Mobility and Counter-Maneuver: Leverage and expand the development of highly mobile tactical units, such as motorcycle assault companies, for rapid infiltration, flanking maneuvers, and disruption of enemy supply lines, exploiting areas of weaker Russian defense.
4. Intensify Intelligence Gathering and Adapt to Enemy Tactics: Dedicate resources to understand and counter Russian tactical adaptations, including the use of "anti-drone suits" and new drone-infantry coordination. Develop new reconnaissance techniques and countermeasures for stealthy enemy movements.
5. Proactive Information Warfare and Counter-Disinformation: Develop agile and proactive information campaigns to immediately counter Russian narratives, especially those surrounding civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and politically charged events like the Portnov assassination. Highlight Russian internal vulnerabilities and inconsistencies.
6. Strengthen Border Defense and Response: Augment defensive fortifications and rapid response capabilities in border regions, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, to deter and repel Russian incursions and DRG activities.
7. Address Internal Military Morale and Accountability: Transparently investigate and address allegations of unjustified losses or command failures to maintain troop morale, trust, and operational effectiveness. Implement lessons learned from such investigations.
8. Reinforce Civilian Resilience and Humanitarian Support: Prioritize resources for civilian protection, including shelters and emergency response capabilities. Expedite humanitarian aid and support to affected populations, and maintain clear communication channels for critical information.
9. Maintain High-Level Diplomatic Engagement: Continue robust diplomatic efforts with international partners, particularly the EU and US, to secure sustained financial and military aid, coordinate sanctions, and maintain a unified stance against Russian aggression. Actively shape the discourse around potential peace negotiations to reflect Ukraine's core strategic objectives.
10. Resource Optimization and Logistics: Streamline and enhance logistical support chains, both official and volunteer-driven, to ensure timely and effective delivery of essential equipment, ammunition, and medical supplies to frontline units. Diversify procurement to reduce reliance on single-source suppliers.