Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military landscape remains highly dynamic, characterized by intense ground combat in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Pokrovsk, Dzerzhinsk, and Konstantinovka directions, and persistent Russian aerial assaults involving drones and guided bombs across Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct deep precision strikes on Russian military-industrial targets and cross-border operations, as evidenced by the confirmed drone strike on the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant in Oryol Oblast.

A significant development is the assassination of former Yanukovych advisor Andriy Portnov in Madrid, Spain, an event that has been widely reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, each framing it to support their own narratives and fueling a strong wave of information warfare. Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, promoting successes, training efforts, and internal issues, with a notable focus on the critical and evolving role of drones as both offensive and defensive assets.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Russia confirming willingness to engage in prisoner exchanges and discussions around a memorandum for a future peace agreement, though major disagreements persist. A new allegation of internal corruption within Ukraine regarding fortification construction has emerged, which could have significant strategic implications.

Major Updates

Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Military-Industrial Complex

• Target: Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant in Oryol Oblast, Russia.
• Attacker: Units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other elements of the Defense Forces.
• Impact: Confirmed strike by 10 UAVs; a fire was recorded. This plant is a critical supplier for Russian military-industrial complex enterprises, including those producing Sukhoi aircraft, Iskander, and Kinzhal missiles.
• Strategic Importance: This strike directly targets Russia's war-economic potential, aiming to disrupt the production of advanced military hardware.

Alleged Ukrainian Armored Assault Repelled in Kursk Oblast (Russia)

• Location: Glushkovo direction, Kursk Oblast.
• Russian Claim: Russian forces ("Northern Wind" units) claim to have repelled a Ukrainian armored assault, destroying two BMPs (including a Bradley) and damaging a third, and driving back a Stryker APC.
• Implication: Indicates continued Ukrainian cross-border activity aimed at Russian territory and Russian defensive efforts in border regions, involving Western-supplied armored vehicles.

Assassination of Andriy Portnov in Madrid, Spain

• Victim: Andriy Portnov, former advisor to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, blacklisted by the EU for misuse of state funds and human rights violations.
• Location: Near the American School in Pozuelo de Alarcón, a suburb of Madrid.
• Details: Unknown assailant on a motorcycle ambushed him, firing multiple shots, confirming death at the scene.
• Response (Ukraine): Ukrainian sources are celebrating his death and satirically denying involvement, confirming the killing.
• Response (Russia): Russian sources confirm his death, speculating the murder was ordered by "Zelensky's gang."
• Implication: This high-profile assassination, far from the conflict zone, highlights ongoing political tensions and potential extrajudicial actions against figures associated with the previous Ukrainian regime, fueling information warfare from both sides. Russian officials have called it an "extrajudicial execution."

Continued Intense Ground Combat Across Fronts

• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Dzerzhinsk, Konstantinovka, Krasnoarmeysk directions):
  • Russian Claimed Advances: Russian military bloggers ("Voenkor Kotenok," "Dnevnik Desantnika," "Kotsnews") claim Russian advances on the Druzhkivka/Pokrovsk directions, reaching the southern outskirts of Popov Yar and Poltavka, entering Romanovka, and clearing Novoaleksandrovka using "anti-drone suits" for thermal invisibility. They also report continued battles near Yablunovka and advances on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Russian forces claim to have struck a logistics bridge near Shahovo across the Kazennyi Torets River, complicating Ukrainian logistics.
  • Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling numerous attacks across the Donbas axis. BUTUSOV PLUS video shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian soldier caught in a fence near Pokrovsk, implying continued close-quarters combat. DeepState map indicates Russian advances near Nova Poltavka, Malynivka, and Romanivka.

Widespread Drone Activity and Information Warfare

• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Unmanned Systems Forces continue deep strikes into Russian territory (Bolkhov plant). Ukrainian drone effectiveness is highlighted, including targeting a struggling Russian soldier near Pokrovsk (raising ethical concerns).
• Russian Drone Capabilities: Russian channels showcase FPV drone strikes (e.g., on a T-72 tank in Sumy border region) and drone strikes on Ukrainian rear infrastructure in the Gulyai Pole area.
• Information Warfare Focus: Both sides are heavily using drone footage and military reports in information campaigns. Russian channels promote claimed successes and tactics, while Ukrainian channels highlight strikes and counter-propaganda. The critical role and proliferation of drones remain a key focus.
• Air Defense Claims: Russian MoD claims shooting down 6 JDAMs and 236 Ukrainian UAVs (162 outside the special operation zone) over the past day, and 39 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions (including Oryol, Bryansk, Belgorod, Lipetsk) between 08:00 and 11:30. Rosaviatsia imposed temporary flight restrictions in Kaluga, Ivanovo, Vladimir, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports due to drone threats.

Russian Domestic Issues and Social Commentary

• Internal Security: FSB uncovered a state defense order fraud scheme exceeding 1 billion rubles in Rostov Oblast. Search for escaped convicts in Rostov Oblast continues. Mass conflicts between teenagers reported in Makhachkala, Dagestan. New fraud scheme using Telegram posing as online schools. "Red Level" alert for "Threat of UAV Attack" in Yelets and Yelets MR, Lipetsk Oblast. Temporary restrictions on flights at Kaluga, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports due to UAV threats. Law on digital control over migrants adopted, allowing geolocation tracking.
• Social Policies: Discussion on abolishing state pensions, suggesting individuals rely on children or "dying." Proposal to restrict civil service access and "Gosuslugi" for malicious alimony defaulters. Ministry of Justice is working on a ban for malicious alimony defaulters from opening bank accounts.
• Legal Issues: Resident of Sevastopol sentenced to 18 years for state treason, accused of working with Kyiv to find explosives. Human rights activist in occupied Donetsk fined for "discrediting the Russian army."
• Military Issues: Allegations of violations in the construction of defensive structures in Belgorod Oblast (109 million rubles). Military serviceman reportedly facing pressure for reporting wage theft by a businessman involved in constructing state facilities for veterans.
• Information Warfare: "Solovyov Live" (MARDAN) promotes controversial social policies. ASTRA's VPN promotion hints at ongoing censorship. WarGonzo promotes a new serial based on events in Donbas. Russian state media highlights a new decree on monitoring harm from foreign sources.

International Relations and Support for Ukraine

• EU Military Funding: EU Ambassadors approved a plan for the militarization of Europe with €150 billion.
• US Presence in Taiwan: Rybar reports on calls in the US Congress to increase the number of military personnel training the Taiwanese army, with discussions of around 500 American specialists already present.
• Russia-US Prisoner Exchange Talks: Dmitry Peskov's briefing confirms discussions on prisoner exchange talks with the US (9 for 9 contact) and a "1000 for 1000" exchange with Ukraine.
• Russia-Vatican Relations: Peskov's briefing mentions the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
• Russia-Central Asia/Caucasus Diplomacy: Lavrov announced preparations for a third meeting of the "3+3" format ministers.
• Poland-Ukraine Relations: President Zelenskyy discussed presidential elections, peace steps, and opening EU membership clusters with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Zelenskyy informed Tusk about his conversation with President Trump and European leaders, emphasizing the need for continued pressure on Russia. Poland remains a crucial partner for Ukraine's security and Euro-integration.
• Belarusian Action Against Kalinoŭski Regiment: Belarusian authorities initiated criminal proceedings against and declared wanted 125 individuals allegedly associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. Five commanders sentenced in absentia to 12-20 years.
• Foreign Fighter Involvement: Russian sources report a Serbian volunteer from "Ural" battalion, Aleksandar Kubatovic, claiming to be a regular Russian Army serviceman who fought in Avdiivka and Bakhmut-Soledar. He is being prosecuted in Serbia for "mercenary activities," highlighting legal challenges for foreign fighters.

Strategic Outlook

Ukraine's capability for deep precision strikes against Russian military-industrial targets continues to be a strategic priority, aiming to degrade Russia's long-term war-making capacity. The attack on the Bolkhov semiconductor plant exemplifies this. Simultaneously, Russia maintains overwhelming aerial assaults and ground offensives, attempting to achieve territorial gains and defending its border regions against Ukrainian incursions.

The confirmed casualties from Russian strikes on Ukrainian training camps highlight severe OPSEC failures requiring immediate review. The assassination of Portnov introduces a new layer of complexity, indicating ongoing political tensions and potential extrajudicial actions that could destabilize the broader political landscape.

The pervasive and adapting nature of drone warfare by both sides necessitates continuous investment in offensive and defensive UAV technologies and countermeasures. The EU's €150 billion militarization plan is a significant commitment to bolstering European defense, indirectly benefiting Ukraine. Diplomatic conversations, especially involving the US and Trump, will continue to influence perceptions of international unity and the prospects for any negotiated settlement, though a comprehensive peace agreement remains distant.

The emergence of allegations of internal corruption in Ukraine regarding fortification construction is a critical vulnerability. If proven, this could undermine international support and domestic trust, directly impacting the war effort. Similarly, reports of internal Russian issues, including military mismanagement and social discontent, while not immediately decisive, contribute to the overall picture of state resilience and potential long-term challenges for the aggressor.

Recommendations

1. Sustain and Expand Deep Precision Strikes: Prioritize and continue deep precision strikes on Russian military-industrial complex facilities, especially those producing high-tech components difficult for Russia to source due to sanctions. Focus on targets that demonstrably cripple long-term war-making capabilities.
2. Immediate OPSEC Review and Force Protection Enhancement: Conduct an urgent, granular review of all training methodologies, site selections, and personnel dispersal protocols, especially in border regions. Implement mandatory, real-time threat assessments and dynamic relocation plans for all training activities.
3. Enhance Border Defense and Targeted Offence: Continue to monitor and, where strategically advantageous, conduct limited cross-border operations to divert Russian resources and apply pressure. Simultaneously, strengthen defensive fortifications and rapid response capabilities in Ukrainian border regions.
4. Accelerate Counter-Drone Technologies and Tactics: Accelerate the development and deployment of advanced electronic warfare systems capable of neutralizing large-scale drone attacks. Prioritize FPV interceptor drones and enhance ground force training in counter-UAV tactics and anti-drone suits for improved survivability in contested airspace.
5. Proactive Diplomatic Engagement and Information Management: Proactively engage with European leaders and international partners to ensure sustained military and financial aid, particularly in light of developments like the EU's €150 billion militarization plan. Closely monitor US political discourse and statements regarding the conflict to anticipate potential policy shifts and adjust diplomatic strategies accordingly.
6. Address Internal Corruption and Strengthen Governance: Immediately launch transparent and thorough investigations into all allegations of corruption related to fortification construction and other war-related expenditures. Implement robust anti-corruption measures and communicate actions clearly to both domestic and international audiences to maintain trust and support.
7. Intensify Information Warfare and Counter-Disinformation: Develop and deploy robust information campaigns to counter Russian narratives, particularly those concerning casualties, battlefield successes, and internal political dynamics. Highlight Russian internal issues (e.g., corruption, social policies) to undermine morale and public trust within Russia, while actively countering Russian disinformation regarding Ukrainian internal affairs.
8. Reinforce Logistics and Supply Chain Resilience: Given potential Russian targeting of logistics nodes, enhance the resilience of military supply chains through diversification of routes, increased redundancy, and improved protection of critical infrastructure.
9. Support and Integrate Personnel: Continue to prioritize soldier training, particularly in advanced combat skills and adaptation to new technologies (e.g., fiber-optic FPV drones, KRAMPUS). Ensure continuous psychological and material support for combatants and their families, addressing challenges in recruitment and personnel management. This includes leveraging the development of safe educational infrastructure (e.g., underground schools) to maintain civilian morale and support the war effort.