Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The operational environment remains highly kinetic, characterized by intense, multi-front ground combat across the Donbas axis (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Siversk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole directions), and sustained Russian offensive pressure in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts and cross-border regions of Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are largely maintaining defensive lines, successfully repelling numerous assaults, but continue to face overwhelming Russian firepower and repeated ground assaults.

A critical development is the confirmed Russian Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian military training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border. This incident resulted in significant Ukrainian casualties (6 killed, over 10 wounded, Russian claims up to 70 casualties including 20 instructors) and has sparked severe internal military and political fallout within Ukraine, including calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief due to "criminal negligence" and OPSEC failures.

Russian forces continue widespread aerial campaigns, utilizing drones and guided bombs against frontline positions and rear areas. Ukraine is actively engaged in counter-UAV operations, successfully downing a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance drone near Kostiantynivka with an FPV interceptor drone.

Diplomatic signals indicate potential shifts in international unity and support for Ukraine, with reports of the U.S. opposing explicit "further support" and the labeling of Russia's invasion as "illegal" in G7 statements. This could impact future military and financial aid. Concurrently, Turkey's Baykar company is testing a new Kemankes mini cruise missile for drones, potentially offering new offensive capabilities for Ukrainian Bayraktar drones if acquired.

Russia is intensifying internal security measures and recruitment efforts, including mobile internet disruptions and FSB arrests. Russian military bloggers actively promote narratives of success and highlight claimed Ukrainian losses. The conflict continues to exact a heavy human toll on both sides, as highlighted by vast military cemeteries in Ukraine and ongoing reports of casualties.

Major Updates

Confirmed Russian Iskander Strike on Ukrainian Training Camp (Sumy Oblast)

• Location: Shostka, Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border.
• Weapon: Iskander ballistic missile.
• Impact: Confirmed strike on a Ukrainian military training camp.
• Casualties: Ukrainian sources report 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded. Russian sources claim up to 70 Ukrainian casualties, including 20 instructors.
• Damage: Destruction of a training building, ammunition depot, and 10 units of equipment (Russian claim).
• Internal Fallout (Ukraine): Ukrainian MPs (Maryana Bezugla, Oleksiy Goncharenko) are calling for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief (Syrsky) due to "criminal negligence" and poor command decisions for positioning a large training facility so close to the border. A service investigation is underway, and the unit commander has been suspended. This highlights significant OPSEC failures.

Significant Russian Activity in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts

• Kursk Oblast: Russian forces claim to have repelled a Ukrainian assault near Novy Put at 04:00 with three BMPs (including a Bradley) and one Stryker APC, destroying two BMPs and damaging a third. They are actively searching for the Stryker.
• President Putin's Visit: Putin visited Kursk Oblast, stating that Ukrainian forces attempt to cross the state border daily. He emphasized the importance of UAV units for Russian military operations and supported demining and reconstruction in Kursk Oblast, along with extending financial payments to displaced residents.
• Aerial Strikes: Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. A missile launch towards Sumy Oblast was also reported.

Intensified Ukrainian Counter-UAV Operations

• Success: A Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade crew ("Volotsyuha") shot down a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance UAV near Kostiantynivka, reportedly with an FPV interceptor drone. Video includes the Zala's own footage of its last seconds, demonstrating successful kinetic interception.

U.S. Reportedly Opposes "Further Support" for Ukraine in G7 Statement

• Politico Report: The U.S. is reportedly opposing the inclusion of "further support for Ukraine" and the labeling of Russia's invasion as "illegal" in the G7 finance ministers' statement in Canada.
• Trump's Stance: Former U.S. President Trump reiterated his "not my problem" stance on the conflict and stated that Russia and Ukraine should find a solution themselves, refusing to join European pressure for new sanctions.
• Implications: These reports suggest a potential weakening of international unity and explicit support for Ukraine from key allies, which could impact future military and financial aid, as well as diplomatic pressure on Russia.

Continued Intense Ground Combat Across Key Ukrainian Fronts (Ukrainian General Staff Reports)

• High Intensity: Ukrainian General Staff reports confirm sustained, high-intensity Russian offensive pressure across almost all major axes.
• Key Directions:
  • Kharkiv: Enemy attempted three times to break through near Vovchansk and towards Stroivka.
  • Kupiansk: One localized attack repelled near Nova Kruhliakivka.
  • Lyman: Enemy attacked 30 times near Kopanky, Ridkodub, Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampilivka, and Torske.
  • Siversk: One attempt to advance near Bilohorivka.
  • Kramatorsk: Occupiers attacked six times near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and towards Predtechyne and Bila Hora.
  • Toretsk: Enemy carried out 14 attacks in Druzhba, Petrivka, and Toretsk.
  • Pokrovsk: Ukrainian defenders stopped 44 assault actions across multiple settlements.
  • Novopavlivsk: Enemy carried out 33 attacks in Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Zelene Pole, Kostiantynopil, Bahatyr, Burlatske, Vesele, and towards Odrade.
  • Orikhiv: Occupying forces advanced twice on Ukrainian positions near Novoandriivka and Maly Shcherbaky.
  • Huliaipole: Ukrainian units repelled two assault actions near Vysoke.
  • Kherson (Pridniprovskyi): One unsuccessful attempt to advance.
  • Kursk Direction (bordering Sumy): Ukrainian defenders stopped 13 Russian army assaults, despite 19 aviation strikes (dropping 40 KABs) and 261 shelling incidents (4 MLRS).
• Outcome: Ukrainian forces are largely holding defensive lines, facing overwhelming Russian firepower.

Russian Claims of Successful Targeting and Personnel Losses

• 5th Combined Arms Army: Claimed destruction of a Starlink satellite communication station, a UAV control antenna, a pickup, and an armored fighting vehicle, along with downing two strike UAVs, three "Baba Yaga" drones, and 42 quadcopters.
• 29th Combined Arms Army: Claimed destruction of three temporary deployment points, one armored fighting vehicle, two UAV control points, four ground station control antennas, a truck, and a pickup in Alekseevka, Bohdanivka, and Novoukrainka.
• 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and 238th Artillery Brigade: Claimed destruction of a Ukrainian transport vehicle near Shcherbynivka (ATGM) and an FH-70 howitzer with a "Lancet" loitering munition near Kostiantynivka.
• Colonelcassad Claims: Russian forces have entered Novoaleksandrovka and cleared Ukrainian tunnels. Claims Russian forces are systematically capturing a pocket south of Zarya, forcing a Ukrainian retreat north, and are fighting for Novopol and Zelenoe Pole southwest of Velikaya Novoselka. Also claims gaining "a bit more territory" near Dneproenergiya.
• Training: Russian MoD released a video showing intensive training of assault detachments from the 20th Combined Arms Army ("Zapad" Group of Forces) in rear areas.

Turkish Baykar Company Tests New Kemankes Mini Cruise Missile for Drones

• Development: Baykar reported successful tests of its new Kemankes mini cruise missile, integrated with UAVs like Bayraktar Akinci, TB2, and TB3.
• Capabilities: Range of about 200 km, low cost (under $50,000), optical guidance system with AI, capable of operating in bad weather, and can be launched from a pickup truck.
• Production: Baykar plans to produce 100 units in 2026.
• Potential Impact: Could provide new offensive capabilities for Ukrainian Bayraktar drones.

Russian Domestic Issues and Recruitment Efforts

• Internet Disruptions: Mobile internet disruptions reported in Moscow, Lipetsk, and Vladimir Oblasts, with Lipetsk authorities attributing them to "military operations" for security reasons.
• FSB Detention: A Russian citizen was detained in Kaluga Oblast by FSB for allegedly providing Ukrainian special services with data on air defense systems and studying drone operation.
• Recruitment: A recruitment poster in Chelyabinsk Oblast advertised "Service by Contract" as "A Worthy Choice for a Patriot!"
• Infrastructure Attacks: Reports of a drone hitting a locomotive at Valuyki-Sortirovochnaya station in Belgorod Oblast on May 19.

Ukrainian Logistics and Personnel Support

• Logistics Battalion: Ukrainian General Staff released a video highlighting the vital role of the logistics battalion of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, emphasizing their work under constant threat to supply frontline units.
• Mobilization Challenges: A video showed a man in Odesa attempting to evade TCC (military recruitment center) personnel by hiding in a tree for several hours before apprehension.
• Police in Combat Zones: Images show members of the Ukrainian Patrol Police unit "Khizhаk" ("Predator") in full military-style tactical gear in a damaged forest, indicating expanded law enforcement roles into combat zones.
• Economic Resilience: First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Yuliya Svyrydenko, visited industrial and food processing enterprises in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, emphasizing continued operation and government support for "Made in Ukraine."
• POW/MIA Efforts: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held an outreach meeting with families in Lviv Oblast to discuss prisoner exchange processes, communication with ICRC, DNA expertise, and search for missing servicemen.

Strategic Outlook

The operational environment remains critically challenging for Ukraine, requiring sustained Western support for air defense, advanced precision strike capabilities, and continued re-supply of munitions to counter overwhelming Russian firepower and persistent ground assaults. The OPSEC failure leading to the Iskander strike on the training camp is a severe concern, necessitating immediate review and rectification of Ukrainian force disposition and training practices. The shifting diplomatic landscape, particularly the reported U.S. G7 stance, demands careful monitoring for its potential impact on future aid and international unity. Ukraine must continue to leverage its drone capabilities, focus on logistics resilience, and adapt its national defense efforts to maintain stability and effectiveness. Russia's internal security measures and sustained recruitment efforts indicate a commitment to a prolonged conflict, further underscoring the enduring nature of the war.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Air Defense and Electronic Warfare (EW) Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of additional short-to-medium range air defense systems, especially in rear areas and near critical training facilities, to counter Russian ballistic missile and drone threats. Increase investment in and deployment of EW systems to disrupt Russian reconnaissance and strike UAVs.
2. Review and Strengthen OPSEC Protocols: Conduct an immediate, comprehensive review of all military facility locations, troop concentrations, and training sites, particularly those near the border. Implement stringent OPSEC measures to prevent intelligence leaks that could lead to devastating precision strikes like the Shostka incident.
3. Monitor Diplomatic Shifts and Diversify Support Channels: Closely track and analyze any shifts in international support and rhetoric from key allies. Proactively engage in bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to ensure sustained military and financial aid, exploring new partnerships or strengthening existing ones to mitigate the impact of any potential softening of G7 or U.S. commitments.
4. Accelerate Indigenous Drone Production and Counter-Drone Technologies: Continue to invest heavily in domestic production of FPV drones and advanced counter-UAV systems. Rapidly integrate new technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile if acquisition is feasible, to enhance offensive and defensive drone capabilities.
5. Optimize Logistics and Personnel Management: Strengthen logistical security and efficiency, particularly in vulnerable border regions. Adapt mobilization strategies to address societal challenges and resistance, ensuring consistent and effective force generation while maintaining public trust and morale. Implement robust psychological support for both military personnel and civilians affected by the conflict.
6. Intensify Intelligence Gathering on Russian Domestic Dynamics: Increase efforts to monitor Russian internal security measures, recruitment campaigns, and social stability to anticipate shifts in manpower and resource availability for the war effort. Analyze Russian propaganda and information operations to develop effective counter-narratives.
7. Prioritize Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Aid: Continue to allocate significant resources to civilian protection, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction efforts, particularly in frontline and liberated areas. Document and highlight the human cost of the conflict to maintain international empathy and support.