Sitrep 2025-05-20 11:16:24

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 11:15 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, a persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. A notable aspect of the current situation is the anticipation of a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight. Diplomatic discussions, including the fallout from the recent Istanbul talks and the prospect of high-level US-Russia contact, continue to influence the strategic backdrop. Both sides remain engaged in information operations, attempting to shape narratives about battlefield successes, casualties, and political developments. Internal issues within both Ukraine and Russia, such as mobilization challenges, logistical concerns, and social dynamics, continue to be reported and have potential implications for the conflict's trajectory.

Significant new updates since the previous report include:

Russian Strikes in Chernihiv Oblast: Dnevnik Desantnika reports that Russian Aerospace Forces struck targets in Novgorod-Seversky district, destroying an ammunition depot. Additionally, a reconnaissance and sabotage group assembly point was destroyed in Snovsky district. FPV drones reportedly destroyed trucks with military cargo and a strongpoint in Timonovichi, and artillery/mortar fire destroyed two mortar positions in Kryukovsky district. An attempt to mine access routes in Guta-Studenetskaya was foiled by a strike. Overall, in this area, Russian forces claim to have destroyed 2 trucks, a BRDM, up to 12 personnel, and 2 fuel/lubricant depots over the past day. A radio interception center near Mikhalchina Sloboda was reportedly hit by Geran drones. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Ukraine Offers Simplified Procedure for Returning Absentees: The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service. This procedure is extended until August 30, 2025, and applies to first-time absentees, those who left before May 10, 2025, and even those with criminal cases from the State Bureau of Investigation (ДБР). The 207th Territorial Defense Battalion is specifically mentioned as offering assistance, including explaining nuances, checking cases, and providing support. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
EU Approves 17th Sanctions Package: STERNENKO reports that the EU has approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting almost 200 ships of the "shadow fleet." The sanctions also address hybrid threats and human rights. The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, states that additional sanctions are being prepared and that the EU's response will be tougher the longer Russia wages war. (STERNENKO) Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports the approval of the 17th EU sanctions package. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
UK Announces 100 New Sanctions: TASS and STERNENKO report that the UK has announced 100 new sanctions against Russia. These sanctions target Russia's military, energy, and financial sectors, as well as individuals involved in Russia's information war against Ukraine. The UK and partners are also working to strengthen the oil price cap. (ТАСС, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA)
Widespread Mobile Network and Internet Outage in Spain: RBC-Ukraine and TASS report a widespread outage of mobile network and internet services across Spain, affecting major cities like Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Seville. This is the second major infrastructure failure in Europe in less than a month. The likely cause is a system failure at Telefónica, the operator of most mobile networks in Spain, following a network update that did not go as planned. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Russia Claims Putin Briefed Trump on Prevented Terrorist Attacks: TASS reports that Yuri Ushakov stated Russian President Putin told Donald Trump that threats of terrorist attacks near the Kremlin and Red Square were prevented on the night of May 7th. Putin also reportedly told Trump that those who celebrate Nazis attempted to intimidate leaders who came for the May 9th parade. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
Russia Claims Ukraine Launched 524 Drones and Storm Shadow Missiles on May 7th: TASS reports that Yuri Ushakov stated Russian President Putin told Donald Trump that Ukraine launched 524 drones and Storm Shadow missiles at Russia on the night of May 7th. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Trump Impressed by Russian Losses in WWII: TASS reports that Yuri Ushakov stated Donald Trump told Putin he was deeply impressed by the cost of victory for the Russians in the Great Patriotic War (WWII). Trump also reportedly told Putin that despite being disbelieved in the US, the fact remains that Russians sacrificed the most lives. (ТАСС)
Putin and Trump Discuss General Douglas MacArthur: TASS reports that Yuri Ushakov stated Putin and Trump discussed US General Douglas MacArthur and his words about the danger of the revival of militarism. (ТАСС)
Information Operation Regarding Foreign Mercenaries: Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports on the claimed appearance of a new company, "Snake Company," within the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, allegedly composed of Portuguese mercenaries with combat experience. They claim these mercenaries are increasingly being seen on the Krasnoarmeysk and Chasiv Yar directions. This information is likely part of a Russian information operation to highlight the presence of foreign fighters in Ukraine and potentially portray them as ineffective or a sign of desperation. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Claimed Destruction of Communication and Position by DPR Militia: Narodnaya militsiya DNR shares a video claiming that the anti-tank division of the 238th Guards Artillery Brigade of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army destroyed Ukrainian positions equipped with communication antennas using FPV drones. They claim this disrupted coordination for surviving Ukrainian fighters. The video is presented as demonstrating the high precision and effectiveness of their actions in disrupting enemy communications. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Russian Military Bloggers Promoting Drone Detectors: Два майора is promoting a drone detector called "Nabat V.2.C" from GoDrone, highlighting its features, effectiveness against non-standard frequencies, use by various military personnel (helicopter pilots, artillerymen, tankers, UAV crews), warranty, updates, and special conditions for SVO participants. This indicates the importance of counter-drone technology and ongoing efforts to equip Russian forces. (Два майора)
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Prisoner Exchange: Voenkor Kotenok provides commentary on the potential "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange, suggesting that Ukraine is actively preparing by including individuals convicted of treason, separatism, and those who posted about strikes on social media or were allegedly framed. He questions the suitability of exchanging these individuals for Russian military prisoners of war. (Военкор Котенок)
Russian Claim of Starlink and EW Destruction in Kherson Oblast: TASS shares a video claiming that servicemen of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces destroyed a Starlink station and a Ukrainian EW system on the right bank of Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reports Aid Delivery: Slivochnyy kapriz shares a video showing the delivery of equipment collected by their channel subscribers to the 2nd battalion of the 70th regiment operating on the Orikhiv direction. The soldiers express gratitude for the support. This highlights the reliance on volunteer support for Russian forces and efforts to maintain morale. (Сливочный каприз)
Russian Chronology of Strikes (May 19-20): Colonelcassad provides a detailed chronological list of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on May 19th and the morning of May 20th. Strikes reportedly targeted locations in Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Zhytomyr (Ozernoye and Berdichev area), Dnipropetrovsk (Novomoskovsk, Pavlohrad, Synelnykove), Chernihiv (Nizhyn), Kyiv (Zgurivka), and Cherkasy Oblasts, using a full range of weapons including guided aerial bombs (UMPK), Geran/Gerber drones, and MLRS. Specific targets mentioned include explosions, areas near settlements, and areas experiencing "Geran/Gerber" activity. A video purportedly shows "Geran/Gerber" drones operating in Kramatorsk at night. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on "Anvar" Unit's Work in Chernihiv Oblast: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the work of the Russian "Anvar" unit in Chernihiv Oblast, specifically targeting a Ukrainian strongpoint near Klyusy. (Colonelcassad)
Widespread Russian State Service Outages and Alleged DDoS Attacks: ASTRA reports a large-scale outage in Russian state services, including websites for the Federal Tax Service (ФНС), Unified State Automated Information System (ЕГАИС), Unified Medical Information and Analytical System, Gosklyuch, and Chestny Znak. The Federal Tax Service claims to be experiencing high-level DDoS attacks from abroad. Work of the Electronic Medical Card service is reported to be restored in Moscow. (ASTRA, ТАСС)
Damage to Hydrotechnical Structures and Bridge in Sumy Oblast: RBC-Ukraine reports, citing Sumy Oblast State Administration, that Russian attacks damaged hydrotechnical structures in Velykopysarivska community. While no flooding is currently reported, the situation is being monitored. Additionally, a crucial bridge connecting Yamne village with Vilne, Velyka Pysarivka, and the Krasnopillia-Kharkiv highway was reportedly destroyed by Russian forces. (РБК-Україна) The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, resulting in two injured civilians. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Commemoration of Mariupol and Bakhmut Liberation by Russian Source: Dnevnik Desantnika commemorates May 20th as the third anniversary of the "liberation" of Mariupol and the second anniversary of the "liberation" of Bakhmut (Artemovsk). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Wagner Group Claims Anniversary of Bakhmut Victory: Alex Parker Returns shares a message from the Wagner Group press service commemorating the second anniversary of the victory in the "Bakhmut meatgrinder" on May 20, 2023. They claim the battle lasted 224 days and resulted in the destruction of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, officers, and NATO mercenaries, calling it a turning point that allowed Russian forces to regroup and defeat subsequent enemy attacks. (Alex Parker Returns)
Successful Evacuation of Wounded Soldier by Robotic Complex (Kharkiv Oblast): Mykolaiv Vanek shares a video claiming that the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" successfully evacuated a wounded soldier using a ground robotic complex north of Kharkiv. The robot reportedly transported the wounded soldier 12 km to the evacuation point. The post also mentions that in late 2024, "Khartiya" conducted a completely robotic operation without human involvement. (Николаевский Ванёк)
UK Sanctions on Russian Financial Entities and "Shadow Fleet": TASS and ASTRA report that the UK has sanctioned "VTB Registrar," "VTB Specialized Depository," "Deposit Insurance Agency," and 18 vessels involved in Russia's "shadow fleet" as part of the new sanctions package. Sanctions were also imposed on "Surgutinvestneft" and "MT-Systems." (ТАСС, ASTRA)
Russian Justice Minister on Statehood vs. Rights: Sever.Realii reports that Russian Justice Minister Konstantin Чуйченко stated at a legal forum that strengthening statehood is more important than respecting laws and citizens' rights. He also previously called the Decembrists "subjects of foreign influence." (Север.Реалии)
Russian State Media Propaganda on Mariupol Reconstruction: Voin DV shares a video and text commemorating the three-year anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol on May 20, 2022. The video highlights reconstruction efforts, including over 3.8 thousand restored residential buildings, planned completion of reconstruction by the end of 2025, restoration of schools, kindergartens, hospitals, and roads, and plans for a post-industrial park at the site of the Azovstal plant. The narrative frames Mariupol as a symbol of revival and claims it proves "Russia does not abandon its own." TASS also promotes a special project about the "liberation" of Mariupol, featuring stories of residents and those who "helped" them. (Воин DV, ТАСС)
Russian Information Operation Regarding Potential US Deportation of Ukrainians: Два майора shares a report from The Washington Post claiming that the Trump administration has developed a plan to deport 200,000 Ukrainians from the US to Ukraine, offering $1000 for voluntary deportation. This is presented as part of a plan for other immigrants as well. This information is likely being used by Russian sources to sow discontent and discourage potential Ukrainian migrants or those seeking refuge. (Два майора)
Meeting on Prisoner of War Issues in Ukraine: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of servicemen from the 501st Separate Marine Battalion and other units of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade. The discussion focused on the likelihood of large-scale prisoner exchanges, prioritized categories for release according to the Geneva Convention, the process for releasing illegally convicted defenders, concerns about past exchanges including individuals who allegedly violated their oath or cooperated with the enemy, and Russia's alleged frequent violation of agreements and ignoring the agreed process for releasing Mariupol garrison servicemen. Other topics included attempts to establish correspondence, finding information on conditions and health, and financial assistance for families. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Russian Ministry of Education and Science Head on University Funding: TASS reports that the head of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science, Valery Falkov, stated that preferential loans for education at 3% will only be issued for priority areas, including engineering, technical, medical, and pedagogical specialties. Criteria for calculating the maximum number of paid places will include average unified state exam scores, employment, and graduate salaries. (ТАСС)
New KAB Launches on Sumy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Ukrainian Claim of Eliminating Russian Soldiers with Thermal Cloaks: STERNENKO shares a video claiming that soldiers of the 109th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion (ОГШБр) eliminated two Russian soldiers wearing thermal cloaks using drones. The video is presented as evidence that even with thermal protection, they were detected and eliminated. The post concludes with a call for donations for "Rusoriz." (STERNENKO)
Ukrainian Military Blogger Shares Video of Injured Russian Soldier: Butusov Plus shares a video allegedly showing a Russian soldier losing a leg in Ukraine and rapidly moving to register for "crippled regiments." (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Claim of Destroying Ukrainian Equipment and Personnel in Zaporizhzhia Area: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that units of the 36th Combined Arms Army destroyed a Ukrainian MaxxPro armored fighting vehicle and a pickup truck east of Poddubnoye. West of Otradnoye, drones with drops reportedly struck Ukrainian personnel, and a "Baba Yaga" type drone was destroyed. Near Razdolnoye, a drone strike with drops hit a Ukrainian group, and a second "Baba Yaga" drone was reportedly shot down by ramming. The video is presented as joint work of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the 14th Separate Guards Special Forces Brigade in the Shakhtyorsk direction. (Colonelcassad)

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Potential US Policy Shift on Ukrainian Migrants: Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a Washington Post article claiming the Trump administration has developed a plan to use up to $250 million in foreign aid to facilitate the return of migrants, including potentially 700,000 Ukrainians and Haitians, to their home countries. This plan reportedly includes offering $1000 for voluntary "self-deportation." This is a significant potential development in US immigration policy with direct implications for Ukrainian citizens who have sought refuge in the United States, potentially influencing their decisions and the Ukrainian government's considerations regarding the welfare of its citizens abroad. The report also notes that the UN Migration Management does not support returning people to any of the mentioned countries.
Internal Russian Security and Information Control: ASTRA reports that security forces are conducting searches at the offices of the "Bars" TV channel in Ivanovo and at the home of its chief editor, Sergey Kustov. The reason for the searches is reportedly a criminal case related to "defamation" over a February 2025 publication concerning an appeal from relatives of missing servicemen from the 98th Airborne Division. The report notes that Kustov was previously fined for "discrediting" the army for listing the names of missing servicemen. This highlights ongoing efforts by Russian authorities to control information related to military losses and potentially suppress reporting that deviates from the official narrative. The report also mentions threats received by Kustov.
Legal Issues within the Russian Orthodox Church and Social Concerns: Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of the Holy Trinity Alexander Svirsky Monastery who is also a migrant, in connection with an interregional group involved in child pornography. This highlights criminal activity and legal issues within the Russian Orthodox Church, as well as potential social concerns related to migration and criminal behavior.
Belgian Statement on Potential Troop Deployment to Ukraine: Colonelcassad and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that the Belgian Minister of Defense, Theo Francken, stated that Belgium is ready to send its troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing" led by France and the UK, immediately after a ceasefire is concluded. This is a significant statement from a NATO and EU member state, indicating a potential future commitment of military personnel to Ukraine, although contingent on a ceasefire. Two майора also reports on this, highlighting Russia's consistent demand of no Western troops in Ukraine.
Russian Government Regulation of University Admissions: TASS reports that the State Duma has adopted a bill granting the government the authority to regulate the number of paid admissions to universities. This is framed as a measure to limit paid admissions in specialties not in demand by the economy and to address the deficit of qualified personnel. Новости Москвы also reports on this, noting it will take effect on September 1, 2025. This reflects a strategic shift in Russian education policy aimed at aligning university output with perceived economic needs.
Ukrainian Proposal for Free Trade Agreement with the US: RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative, Taras Kachka, stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump. Ukraine is interested in such agreements with all G7 members. This highlights Ukraine's strategic economic goals and its efforts to strengthen economic ties with key international partners, particularly in the context of post-conflict recovery and economic development.
Russian Claims of Success in Countering Ukrainian UAVs: Басурин о главном shares a video claiming that specialists from the "Rubicon" Center are successfully hunting down Ukrainian UAVs, listing various types (Furii, Leleki, Mary, DARTS, RQ-35 Heidrun, Gory, Domakhi, Shark-M, and Cetus-240) that have been successfully engaged. This is a Russian claim of tactical success in countering Ukrainian drone capabilities, promoting their effectiveness in neutralizing enemy UAVs.
Update on Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Investigation: TASS reports, citing Bastrykin, that over 2,300 people have been recognized as victims in the criminal case related to the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. This is an update on an ongoing internal security investigation in Russia.
Criminal Case in Ukraine Related to Mine Laying: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a Ukrainian court has sentenced a Ukrainian citizen to three years in prison for manufacturing and storing explosives and mining a road for the occupiers in March 2022. The man, who defended his village, was accused in 2024. This highlights legal complexities and potential issues faced by individuals who took independent actions against the occupation early in the conflict, even if framed as defensive.
Russian Propaganda on Support for Veterans and Occupied Territories: WarGonzo shares a photo and text promoting a personnel project called "Donbas. Our Heroes" aimed at supporting veterans and integrating them into civilian life, particularly in the "new territories." The narrative frames military service as a path to becoming the "future elite of Russia" and highlights government support programs and social adaptation efforts. This is a clear information operation aimed at boosting morale, encouraging service, and normalizing the Russian presence in occupied territories.
Russian Narrative on the Trump-Putin Conversation (Ukrainian Source): Оперативний ЗСУ shares details from the Russian side regarding the Trump-Putin conversation, focusing on the claims about preventing terrorist attacks near the Kremlin and Red Square, the alleged large number of Ukrainian drones and Storm Shadow missiles launched on May 7th, Trump's reported impression of Russian sacrifices in WWII, and discussions about General Douglas MacArthur and the danger of militarism. This echoes previous reports from Russian sources and highlights the points Russia is emphasizing from this high-level contact, likely for information operation purposes.
Russian Narrative on Trump-EU Leaders Conversation (Ukrainian Source): Оперативний ЗСУ shares details from an Axios report claiming that Trump told European leaders after his conversation with Putin that Russia had agreed to negotiations, that the US would not participate, and that he opposed new sanctions against Russia. European leaders were reportedly surprised or shocked. Zelenskyy reportedly found the conversation with Trump "bad." This highlights potential divergences in diplomatic approaches between the US (under a potential future Trump administration) and European partners, and potentially between the US and Ukraine, regarding negotiations and pressure on Russia. It also suggests Trump may have presented Putin's position on negotiations in a way that surprised European leaders.
Russian Narrative on Trump-Putin Conversation (Russian Source): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a report from Axios claiming that Trump told EU leaders after his conversation with Putin that the US would not introduce new sanctions against Russia. The report also claims Trump said Russia agreed to negotiations and that some EU leaders were "surprised" and "shocked." Zelenskyy reportedly considered the conversation with Trump "bad." This reinforces the Russian narrative about the content and implications of the Trump-Putin conversation, particularly regarding sanctions and negotiations, likely aiming to create a perception of reduced international pressure on Russia.
Ukrainian Counter-Recruitment and Information Operation: Оперативний ЗСУ reports on an incident in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast where two teenagers were allegedly recruited by Russians to commit sabotage (burning military vehicles) but instead reported it to law enforcement. The report highlights the successful identification of Russian recruiters and the blocking of their intelligence activity. The teenagers received awards in the framework of the all-Ukrainian information campaign "Expose the FSB Agent." This is a clear Ukrainian counter-recruitment and information operation aimed at deterring collaboration with Russian forces and encouraging citizens to report suspicious activity.
Russian Claim of Russian Initiative in Prisoner Exchange: TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that the initiative for the prisoner exchange agreed upon in Istanbul was Russian. This is a Russian claim aimed at portraying themselves as proactively seeking humanitarian solutions and setting the terms for such exchanges.
Russian Readiness for Continued Contacts and Peace Memorandum: TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that Russia is ready for continued contacts with the Ukrainian side and will propose that Kyiv work on a memorandum for movement towards a future peace treaty. This signals a stated Russian willingness to engage in further diplomatic discussions, albeit on their proposed terms and timeline.
Russian Narrative on Trump's Stance on Negotiations and Sanctions (Ukrainian Source): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides a detailed account from Axios about the phone call between Zelenskyy and Trump before and after Trump's call with Putin, and the subsequent call with European leaders. The report details Zelenskyy's request for Trump to demand a ceasefire and new sanctions, Trump's subsequent call with Putin where he reportedly agreed to direct negotiations, Trump's presentation of this to European leaders, their surprise, Trump's opposition to new sanctions, and his belief that Putin wants a deal and will present a "peace note." This provides a Ukrainian-centric perspective on the diplomatic interactions, highlighting potential disagreements on strategy and Trump's perceived approach to dealing with Putin.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Sumy Oblast (Novgorod-Seversky district, Snovsky district, Timonovichi, Kryukovsky district, Guta-Studenetskaya, Mikhalchina Sloboda, Velyka Pysarivka, Белополье, Ворожба, Мирополье, Юнаковка): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity, including new launches of guided aerial bombs. Russian sources claim successful strikes on military targets and foiling mining attempts. Ukrainian sources report a drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point with civilian casualties and damage to hydrotechnical structures and a key bridge. New reports indicate Russian attacks damaged hydrotechnical structures and destroyed a crucial bridge in Velykopysarivska community. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Velyka Pysarivka resulting in two injured civilians. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Colonelcassad, ASTRA)
Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk direction, Chasiv Yar direction, ДНР, Краматорск, Покровский район, Шахтерский direction, Поддубное, Отрадное, Раздольное): Site of intense ground combat, Russian aerial attacks, and claimed tactical gains. Russian sources claim the destruction of communication antennas and positions. Ukrainian sources report explosions in Kramatorsk and the Pokrovsk area. New reports include a Russian claim of destroying Ukrainian positions equipped with communication antennas using FPV drones near Donetsk. Russian sources also claim destroying Ukrainian vehicles and personnel in the Shakhtyorsk direction, including a MaxxPro and a pickup truck, and downing "Baba Yaga" drones. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad)
Chernihiv Oblast (Новгород-Северский район, Сновский район, Тимоновичи, Крюковский район, Гута-Студенецкая, Михальчина Слобода, Nizhyn): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Russian sources claim successful strikes on military targets. New reports from Russian sources claim that Russian Aerospace Forces struck targets in Novgorod-Seversky district, destroying an ammunition depot and a reconnaissance and sabotage group assembly point in Snovsky district. FPV drones reportedly destroyed trucks and a strongpoint in Timonovichi, and artillery/mortar fire destroyed positions in Kryukovsky district. An attempt to mine access routes in Guta-Studenetskaya was reportedly foiled, and a radio interception center near Mikhalchina Sloboda was reportedly hit by Geran drones. Russian sources also claim the work of the "Anvar" unit targeting a Ukrainian strongpoint near Klyusy. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Ореховский direction, Таврическое, Poddubnoye, Otradnoye, Razdolnoye): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Russian sources claim successful strikes on Ukrainian vehicles and personnel in the Shakhtyorsk direction. New reports from Russian sources claim that units of the 36th Combined Arms Army destroyed a Ukrainian MaxxPro armored fighting vehicle and a pickup truck east of Poddubnoye. West of Otradnoye, drones with drops reportedly struck Ukrainian personnel, and a "Baba Yaga" type drone was destroyed. Near Razdolnoye, a drone strike with drops hit a Ukrainian group, and a second "Baba Yaga" drone was reportedly shot down by ramming. Russian military bloggers report the delivery of equipment collected by subscribers to a Russian battalion on the Orikhiv direction. (Сливочный каприз, Colonelcassad)
Kherson Oblast (правобережье, Kherson city): Location of Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian defensive actions. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Starlink station and an EW system. Ukrainian sources report civilian casualties in Kherson city from Russian shelling. New reports from Russian sources claim that servicemen of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces destroyed a Starlink station and a Ukrainian EW system on the right bank of Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad)
Kyiv Oblast (Згуровка, Vasylkiv): Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed strikes on airfields. New reports include a video shared by Colonelcassad claiming to show a massive night attack by "Geran" drones on an airfield in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast. This suggests Russian targeting of military facilities in this area. (Colonelcassad)
Zhytomyr Oblast (Озерное, окрестности Бердичева): Affected by Russian aerial activity. (Colonelcassad)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novomoskovsk, Pavlohrad, Синельниково): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports from the Office of the Prosecutor General indicate a criminal case in Dnipro against three individuals involved in online fraud selling non-existent goods like generators and solar panels. While not a military activity, this relates to internal security and criminal activity in the region. (Colonelcassad, Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Cherkasy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. (Colonelcassad)
Kharkiv Oblast (Изюмский район, Купянский район, окрестности Харькова): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Ukrainian forces successfully evacuated a wounded soldier using a robotic complex north of Kharkiv. New reports include a video shared by Mykolaiv Vanek claiming that the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" successfully evacuated a wounded soldier using a ground robotic complex north of Kharkiv. This highlights the use of advanced tactics and equipment in this area. (Colonelcassad, Николаевский Ванёк)
Spain (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville): Location of widespread mobile network and internet outage. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
UK: Location of government announcing new sanctions against Russia. (ТАСС, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA)
Russia (Kremlin, Red Square): Location of alleged prevention of terrorist attacks discussed by Putin and Trump. New reports from TASS, citing Yuri Ushakov, claim that Putin told Trump that threats of terrorist attacks near the Kremlin and Red Square were prevented on the night of May 7th. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
Красноярский край (Сосновоборск): Location of a reported criminal incident. (Alex Parker Returns)
ДНР (Шахтерск): Location of municipal boxing competition. (Два майора)
Azov Sea: Russian sources commemorate the "liberation" of Mariupol on the coast of the Azov Sea. New reports from Voin DV and TASS commemorate the three-year anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol and promote reconstruction efforts. (Воин DV, ТАСС)
Moscow (Russia): Location of a showroom for drone detectors and a restored electronic medical card service. New reports from ASTRA indicate a large-scale outage in Russian state services, including the Federal Tax Service and Electronic Medical Card service (which is reported to be restored in Moscow). Reports from ASTRA also indicate searches at the office of the "Bars" TV channel in Ivanovo and the chief editor's home, related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting internal information control efforts. (Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Black Sea: Ukrainian naval status is reported. New reports from Voin DV and TASS commemorate the three-year anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol on the coast of the Azov Sea. The UK has sanctioned 18 vessels in Russia's "shadow fleet," which operate in various international waters, potentially including the Black Sea. (РБК-Україна, MoD Russia, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Бахмут (Артёмовск): Russian sources commemorate the "liberation" of Bakhmut. New reports from Dnevnik Desantnika and Alex Parker Returns (Wagner Group) commemorate the second anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Bakhmut. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns)
Mariupol: Russian sources commemorate the "liberation" and highlight reconstruction efforts. New reports from Dnevnik Desantnika, Voin DV, and TASS commemorate the anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol and highlight reconstruction efforts. Alex Parker Returns (Wagner Group) also commemorates the "liberation." (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns)
Ореховский direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Location of Russian military activity and volunteer support delivery. New reports from Slivochnyy kapriz highlight the delivery of equipment collected by their channel subscribers to a Russian battalion operating on the Orikhiv direction. (Сливочный каприз)
Klyusy (Chernihiv Oblast): Location of a claimed Russian strike on a Ukrainian strongpoint. New reports from Colonelcassad claim to show the work of the Russian "Anvar" unit targeting a Ukrainian strongpoint near Klyusy. (Colonelcassad)
Velykopysarivska community (Sumy Oblast): Location of damage to hydrotechnical structures and a bridge, and a drone attack on a humanitarian aid point. New reports from RBC-Ukraine and ASTRA report Russian attacks damaged hydrotechnical structures and destroyed a crucial bridge in Velykopysarivska community. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Velyka Pysarivka, resulting in two injured civilians. (РБК-Україна, Офіс Генерального прокурора, ASTRA)
Ямне village (Sumy Oblast): Connected by a bridge that was reportedly destroyed. New reports from RBC-Ukraine state that a crucial bridge connecting Yamne village with Vilne, Velyka Pysarivka, and the Krasnopillia-Kharkiv highway was reportedly destroyed by Russian forces. (РБК-Україна)
Vilne (Sumy Oblast): Connected by a bridge that was reportedly destroyed. New reports from RBC-Ukraine state that a crucial bridge connecting Yamne village with Vilne, Velyka Pysarivka, and the Krasnopillia-Kharkiv highway was reportedly destroyed by Russian forces. (РБК-Україна)
Краснопілля-Харків highway: Connected to Yamne village by a bridge that was reportedly destroyed. New reports from RBC-Ukraine state that a crucial bridge connecting Yamne village with Vilne, Velyka Pysarivka, and the Krasnopillia-Kharkiv highway was reportedly destroyed by Russian forces. (РБК-Україна)
Краматорск (Donetsk Oblast): Affected by Russian drone activity. (Colonelcassad)
Shakhtyorsk direction (Donetsk Oblast): Location of claimed Russian military operations and strikes. New reports from Colonelcassad claim that units of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the 14th Separate Guards Special Forces Brigade are operating in the Shakhtyorsk direction and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and personnel in the area. (Colonelcassad)
Poddubnoye (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Location where Russian forces claim to have destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. New reports from Colonelcassad claim that units of the 36th Combined Arms Army destroyed a Ukrainian MaxxPro armored fighting vehicle and a pickup truck east of Poddubnoye. (Colonelcassad)
Otradnoye (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Location where Russian forces claim to have struck Ukrainian personnel and destroyed a drone. New reports from Colonelcassad claim that drones with drops struck Ukrainian personnel and a "Baba Yaga" type drone was destroyed west of Otradnoye. (Colonelcassad)
Razdolnoye (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Location where Russian forces claim to have struck a Ukrainian group and destroyed a drone. New reports from Colonelcassad claim that a drone strike with drops hit a Ukrainian group and a second "Baba Yaga" drone was reportedly shot down by ramming near Razdolnoye. (Colonelcassad)
Ivanovo (Russia): Location of searches at a TV channel and the chief editor's home related to reporting on missing servicemen. New reports from ASTRA indicate searches at the office of the "Bars" TV channel in Ivanovo and the chief editor's home, related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting internal information control efforts. (ASTRA)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Location of the detention of a staff member of a monastery in connection with a criminal case. New reports from Alex Parker Returns indicate the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of the Holy Trinity Alexander Svirsky Monastery in connection with an interregional group involved in child pornography. (Alex Parker Returns)
Belgium: Location of statements regarding potential troop deployment to Ukraine. New reports from Colonelcassad and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicate that the Belgian Minister of Defense stated Belgium is ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing" after a ceasefire. (Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
United States: Location of discussions related to Ukrainian migrants and potential free trade agreements. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ on a Washington Post article indicate a potential plan by the Trump administration to use foreign aid for the return of migrants, including Ukrainians, to their home countries. New reports from RBC-Ukraine indicate that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Location of a criminal case related to online fraud. New reports from the Office of the Prosecutor General indicate a criminal case in Dnipro against three individuals involved in online fraud selling non-existent goods. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread. Russian forces are conducting a large-scale drone attack across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, utilizing a wide range of types, including "Geran/Gerber" and "Baba Yaga" strike drones, and reconnaissance drones. Ukraine is conducting drone operations, including targeting Russian territory and occupied areas, and utilizing drones for various purposes, including medical evacuation with robotic complexes. New reports indicate Russian drone strikes in Chernihiv Oblast, destroying trucks and a strongpoint, and hitting a radio interception center. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed Ukrainian positions with communication antennas in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated Russian soldiers wearing thermal cloaks using drones. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones in the Zaporizhzhia area by ramming. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a drone attack on a humanitarian aid point in Sumy Oblast with civilian casualties. Colonelcassad provides a detailed list of claimed Russian drone strikes across numerous oblasts on May 19-20. Mykolaiv Vanek shares a video claiming successful evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic complex north of Kharkiv, potentially highlighting a new application of drone technology in medical support. TASS shares a video claiming destruction of a Starlink station and EW system in Kherson Oblast by Russian forces using drones. Russian sources claim success in countering Ukrainian UAVs, with Басурин о главном sharing a video listing various Ukrainian drone types claimed to have been successfully engaged. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is active across multiple oblasts countering Russian drone and missile attacks. Russia claims effective air defense against Ukrainian drones targeting its territory and occupied Crimea. New reports indicate Ukrainian air defense downed 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight, mostly over Crimea. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones in the Zaporizhzhia area by ramming, indicating a kinetic counter-drone tactic. Russian sources claim foiling over 240 Ukrainian aerial attacks in the DNR over the past week. Russian sources, like Басурин о главном, are claiming success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs, including reconnaissance and artillery spotting types, indicating ongoing counter-drone operations.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces on multiple fronts. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Colonelcassad's chronology lists numerous claimed strikes using guided aerial bombs (UMPK) across various oblasts on May 19-20. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing JDAM and HIMARS projectiles. Russia claims Ukraine launched Storm Shadow missiles on May 7th. Colonelcassad's chronology lists claimed Russian strikes across numerous oblasts on May 19-20, some potentially involving missiles.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active, launching guided aerial bombs. New reports indicate Russian Aerospace Forces strikes in Chernihiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions with a threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. Colonelcassad's chronology lists numerous claimed Russian aviation strikes across various oblasts on May 19-20. The Russian Northern Fleet conducted a naval search and strike drill in the Barents Sea involving Ka-27 anti-submarine warfare helicopters. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Naval Activity: No new reports on naval engagements or carrier movements in the Black or Azov Seas in the immediate period. Ukraine reports no enemy warships or Kalibr carriers in the Black or Azov Seas as of the morning of May 19th. Russia conducted a naval search and strike drill in the Barents Sea. The UK has sanctioned 18 vessels in Russia's "shadow fleet." (РБК-Україна, MoD Russia, ТАСС, ASTRA)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, with the US linking potential sanctions against Russia to a lack of progress in negotiations with Ukraine. Both sides are reportedly preparing documents outlining ceasefire conditions. An ISW assessment suggests the Kremlin is delaying negotiations and preparing for a prolonged war. Russian military bloggers and official sources continue to comment on negotiations, emphasizing their position based on battlefield successes and readiness for prolonged conflict. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is attending the inauguration of the new Pope Leo XIV and has a reported closed meeting with the Pope, who has called for peace negotiations in Ukraine. Zelenskyy also met with the US Vice President. New reports include claimed details from Russian sources regarding a Trump-Putin conversation, focusing on security threats and Ukrainian actions. Russian military blogger commentary on the potential prisoner exchange highlights internal perspectives on negotiations. The meeting at the Coordination Headquarters on prisoner of war issues reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts related to humanitarian aspects of the conflict. New reports from TASS and Оперативний ЗСУ (citing Axios) indicate differing perspectives on the Trump-Putin conversation regarding negotiations and sanctions, with Trump reportedly telling EU leaders Russia agreed to talks and he opposed new sanctions, surprising them. TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia is ready for continued contacts and will propose a memorandum for a peace treaty. TASS also reports Maria Zakharova claimed the initiative for the Istanbul prisoner exchange was Russian. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Военкор Котенок, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ)
International Pressure: The US is linking progress in negotiations to potential further sanctions against Russia. Germany is seeking decisive action from Italy regarding Russia's war. New and significant sanctions have been imposed by the EU and the UK, specifically targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" and various sectors of its economy, military, and information operations. These measures represent a coordinated international effort to increase economic pressure on Russia and impact its ability to fund and conduct military operations. The targeting of the "shadow fleet" is a direct response to Russia's attempts to circumvent previous restrictions on its maritime trade. New reports indicate Trump reportedly told EU leaders he opposed new sanctions against Russia after his conversation with Putin. (STERNENKO, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings, incidents of vandalism, reports on military engineers, and criminal events continue. Reports of a grenade incident involving a returning Russian soldier in Moscow Oblast are circulating. Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and highlight internal social and economic issues. New reports include a large-scale outage in Russian state services attributed to alleged DDoS attacks, highlighting potential cyber vulnerabilities. The Russian Justice Minister's statement on the primacy of statehood over individual rights reflects a potential shift in legal and political philosophy. A scandal involving a local official's daughter allegedly threatening to send people to the SVO is being reported and amplified by Russian military bloggers. Commentary on prisoner exchange by Russian military bloggers provides insight into internal discussions. New reports from ASTRA indicate searches at a TV channel and the chief editor's home in Ivanovo related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting internal information control efforts. Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of a monastery in connection with a criminal case, highlighting internal security and criminal activity within the Russian Orthodox Church. TASS reports the State Duma adopted a bill granting the government authority to regulate paid admissions to universities, reflecting a strategic shift in education policy. TASS reports over 2,300 people are recognized as victims in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case. (Север.Реалии, ASTRA, ТАСС, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated regarding ceasefire conditions. Commentary on negotiations continues from both sides, with differing interpretations and stated positions. Zelenskyy is engaged in high-level diplomatic meetings with international figures. New reports include claimed details from Russian sources regarding a Trump-Putin conversation and Russian military blogger commentary on the potential prisoner exchange, which is a humanitarian and diplomatic issue. The meeting at the Coordination Headquarters on prisoner of war issues reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts related to humanitarian aspects of the conflict. New reports from TASS and Оперативний ЗСУ (citing Axios) indicate differing perspectives on the Trump-Putin conversation regarding negotiations and sanctions. TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia is ready for continued contacts and will propose a memorandum for a peace treaty. TASS also reports Maria Zakharova claimed the initiative for the Istanbul prisoner exchange was Russian. RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump, indicating a focus on economic diplomacy. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Военкор Котенок, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Disruptions in Spain: A widespread mobile network and internet outage in Spain is a significant infrastructure issue in a European country, although the likely cause is reported as a technical malfunction. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Information Warfare: Both sides continue to engage in active information operations. Russia is promoting narratives of military success, celebrating claimed "liberations" of Mariupol and Bakhmut, highlighting perceived Ukrainian vulnerabilities, and using claimed details of the Trump-Putin conversation to shape narratives. Russian state media promoting reconstruction in Mariupol is a significant propaganda effort related to occupied territories. Russian military bloggers are actively disseminating information and commentary. Ukraine is countering Russian claims, highlighting their own successes (like drone interceptions and robotic evacuation), and promoting efforts to support their military personnel and address internal issues transparently. The Russian information operation regarding potential US deportation of Ukrainians is a clear example of attempting to sow discontent. New reports include Russian state media promoting reconstruction efforts in Mariupol and celebrating the claimed "liberations." Russian military bloggers are using domestic incidents, claims about foreign mercenaries, and commentary on prisoner exchanges for propaganda. Promotion of drone detectors by military bloggers also serves as an information operation highlighting the importance of this equipment. New reports include a Russian information operation regarding a potential US plan to deport Ukrainian migrants. New reports from ASTRA indicate Russian efforts to control information related to military losses. Ukrainian counter-recruitment and information operations are highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ's report on teenagers reporting Russian recruitment attempts. WarGonzo promotes a project for veterans in occupied territories as part of a Russian information operation. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS are disseminating information about the Trump-Putin conversation and its implications, likely as part of a Ukrainian information effort. TASS is reporting on Maria Zakharova's statements regarding negotiations and the prisoner exchange, which are part of Russia's diplomatic information operations. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Два майора, Север.Реалии, Сливочный каприз, Военкор Котенок, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ, WarGonzo)
EU-Russia Relations: The EU has approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia, targeting its "shadow fleet," hybrid threats, and human rights. This signifies continued economic and political pressure on Russia. New reports indicate Trump reportedly told EU leaders he opposed new sanctions against Russia after his conversation with Putin. (STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
UK-Russia Relations: The UK has announced 100 new sanctions against Russia, targeting various sectors and individuals involved in information warfare. This demonstrates continued strong opposition and pressure from the UK. (ТАСС, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA)
Belgium-Ukraine Relations: New reports indicate that the Belgian Minister of Defense stated Belgium is ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing" after a ceasefire, indicating potential future military support. (Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Reports of corruption, criminal activity, and fraud schemes continue. A large-scale outage in Russian state services attributed to alleged DDoS attacks highlights potential cyber vulnerabilities. Reports of a grenade incident involving a returning Russian soldier in Moscow Oblast are circulating. A scandal involving a local official's daughter allegedly threatening to send people to the SVO is being reported. New reports include a criminal case in Khabarovsk involving fraud with salmon caviar and a reported criminal incident in Sosnovoborsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai. New reports from ASTRA indicate searches at a TV channel and the chief editor's home in Ivanovo related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting internal information control efforts and potential suppression of information. Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of a monastery in connection with a criminal case, highlighting internal security and criminal activity within the Russian Orthodox Church. TASS reports over 2,300 people are recognized as victims in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case, an update on a major internal security investigation. (Север.Реалии, ASTRA, ТАСС, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are conducting offensive operations, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. They are utilizing extensive aerial and artillery assets. Russia is strengthening military cooperation with Belarus. New, shortened AK-12 variants are being presented. New reports include Russian claims of successful strikes on military targets in Chernihiv Oblast, including an ammunition depot, and destruction of communication antennas and positions by FPV drones in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces claim the destruction of a Starlink station and an EW system in Kherson Oblast. They also claim destroying Ukrainian vehicles and drones in the Zaporizhzhia area. The Russian Northern Fleet conducted a naval search and strike drill in the Barents Sea. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of their drone detection systems. Russian military bloggers are discussing the potential prisoner exchange. Russian state media and military bloggers are commemorating the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol and Bakhmut. New reports from Басурин о главном claim Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian military bloggers continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian positions on negotiations. Achievement of a documentary film about the conflict receiving a prestigious Russian film award is being highlighted. Denials of forced labor allegations from Nigeria are being issued. Military bloggers are amplifying the reported Russian threat regarding Sumy Oblast during negotiations. New reports include Russian state media promoting reconstruction efforts in Mariupol and celebrating the claimed "liberations" of Mariupol and Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers are using domestic incidents and claims about foreign mercenaries and prisoner exchanges for propaganda. Promotion of drone detectors by military bloggers also serves as an information operation highlighting the importance of this equipment. New reports include a Russian information operation regarding a potential US plan to deport Ukrainian migrants. New reports from ASTRA indicate Russian efforts to control information related to military losses, highlighting a focus on managing the domestic narrative. WarGonzo promotes a project for veterans in occupied territories as part of a Russian information operation. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Два майора, Север.Реалии, Сливочный каприз, Военкор Котенок, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo)
Military Logistics and Equipment: Russia is strengthening military cooperation with Belarus. A report notes fundraising for military equipment. New, shortened AK-12 variants are being presented. New reports include Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia area. Russian military bloggers are promoting and fundraising for drone detectors and other equipment. Volunteer support for Russian military units is being highlighted. The UK has sanctioned entities involved in Russia's financial sector and distribution of electronic components. (Сливочный каприз, ТАСС, Два майора, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Impact: Internal issues like fraud can impact civilians. Natural disasters can impact civilians and infrastructure. New reports include a large-scale outage in Russian state services. A reported criminal incident in Sosnovoborsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, and a criminal case in Khabarovsk involving fraud with salmon caviar highlight internal crime affecting civilians. Reports of civilian casualties from Russian attacks continue. Russian state media is promoting reconstruction efforts in occupied Mariupol. (ASTRA, ТАСС, Два майора, Север.Реalii, Alex Parker Returns, Воин DV, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Social Notes: Proposed increases in taxes on luxury and high incomes. Reported reduction in migrant workers in the construction sector. New reports include a scandal in Vologda Oblast involving a local official's daughter and a report on the head of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science discussing criteria for paid university places, which has social implications. New reports from TASS and Новости Москвы indicate the State Duma adopted a bill granting the government authority to regulate paid admissions to universities, reflecting a strategic shift in education policy aimed at addressing the deficit of qualified personnel. (Север.Реalii, ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Новости Москвы)
Economic Issues: Proposed increases in taxes on luxury and high incomes. Reported reduction in migrant workers in the construction sector. A criminal case against a deputy head of the Ministry of Transport department for alleged illegal enrichment is reported. New reports include a criminal case in Khabarovsk involving fraud and UK sanctions on Russian financial entities and companies, including "Surgutinvestneft" and "MT-Systems." New reports from ASTRA indicate a large-scale outage in Russian state services, including financial ones, attributed to alleged DDoS attacks, highlighting potential economic disruption. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Geopolitical Engagements: Diplomatic efforts with Belarus, Afghanistan, and engagement in Central Asia are noted. A monument has been unveiled in Caracas. Commentary on Hungary's relationship with NATO and Ukraine is noted. New reports include claims from Russian sources regarding a Trump-Putin conversation and Russian state media promoting reconstruction efforts in occupied Ukrainian territories, framing them as part of Russia. New reports indicate Trump reportedly told EU leaders he opposed new sanctions against Russia after his conversation with Putin. TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia is ready for continued contacts with Ukraine and will propose a memorandum for a peace treaty. (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Воин DV, Оперативный ЗСУ)
Law Enforcement and Criminal Activity: New reports include a criminal case in Khabarovsk involving fraud with salmon caviar and a reported criminal incident in Sosnovoborsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai. Russian military bloggers are reporting on a scandal in Vologda Oblast involving alleged threats related to the SVO. New reports from ASTRA indicate searches at a TV channel and the chief editor's home in Ivanovo related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting law enforcement involvement in information control. Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of a monastery in connection with an interregional group involved in child pornography, highlighting law enforcement action against criminal activity within a religious institution. TASS reports over 2,300 people are recognized as victims in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case, an update on a major law enforcement investigation. (Alex Parker Returns, Полиция Хабаровского края, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues, including the expected delivery of ammunition from the EU. Fundraising efforts for Ukrainian military units are ongoing. Ukraine is highlighting the need for continued support from NATO. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the effectiveness of FPV drones and emphasizing the need for continued drone support. Zelenskyy and European leaders reportedly held a phone call with Trump to discuss the Istanbul talks, likely related to continued support. The confirmed shipment of Australian Abrams tanks is a new form of military support. Denmark is providing a new military aid package. New reports include the Ukrainian General Staff promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units to return to service, aimed at personnel recovery. Mykolaiv Vanek shares a video claiming successful evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic complex north of Kharkiv, highlighting advancements and support in medical evacuation. A meeting was held at the Coordination Headquarters with families of servicemen to discuss prisoner of war issues, which is a form of support for military families. New reports from RBC-Ukraine indicate that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump, which could be a strategic move for long-term economic support. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Efforts to address the issue of deported children are ongoing internationally. Healthcare infrastructure and support for medical workers are being highlighted in Zaporizhzhia. Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih are implementing programs for food package distribution. New reports highlight a drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy Oblast, resulting in injured civilians, underscoring the ongoing need for humanitarian assistance and protection. Damage to civilian infrastructure, including a bridge in Sumy Oblast, also impacts civilian life. Reports of civilian casualties in Kherson city due to Russian shelling further highlight the need for civilian support and protection. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ on a Washington Post article indicate a potential plan by the Trump administration to use foreign aid for the return of migrants, including Ukrainians, to their home countries, which could impact civilian populations who have sought refuge abroad. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Military Support (Russia): Fundraising for military equipment is ongoing. The development and presentation of new AK-12 variants is a form of military support. Russian military bloggers are discussing the need for better quality drones. New reports include volunteer support providing equipment to a Russian military unit on the Orikhiv direction. Russian military bloggers are promoting and fundraising for drone detectors and other equipment. The UK has sanctioned entities involved in Russia's financial sector and distribution of electronic components. New reports from Басурин о главном claim Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs, which could be used to bolster morale and support for military capabilities. (Сливочный каприз, ТАСС, Два майора, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном)
Veterans Support (Russia): A report on a Wagner veteran's murder case highlights issues faced by returning servicemen. The adoption of a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans is reported. A Paralympic lesson for veterans was held in Moscow. Neglected graves of "special operation heroes" are being reported in Khabarovsk. A Russian serviceman from Krasnoyarsk Krai complained about the poor condition of a road leading to his village, which could impact support for military personnel returning home. New reports include a video allegedly showing a Russian soldier losing a leg in Ukraine and moving to register for "crippled regiments," potentially highlighting the impact of the war on veterans and the availability of support. WarGonzo promotes a personnel project called "Donbas. Our Heroes" aimed at supporting veterans and integrating them into civilian life, particularly in the "new territories," highlighting government support and social adaptation efforts for veterans. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, WarGonzo)
Post-Conflict Recovery: Demining efforts are ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast. The issue of rebuilding the destroyed Mariupol maternity hospital is being highlighted. Russian state media is promoting reconstruction efforts in occupied Mariupol. WarGonzo promotes a project for veterans in occupied territories as part of a Russian information operation, which includes integration into civilian life, suggesting a focus on post-conflict recovery and control of these areas. (Воин DV, ТАСС, WarGonzo)
Prisoner of War and Missing Personnel (Ukraine): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War is engaging with families of servicemen to discuss search, return, and identification processes. A body exchange has taken place. Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov announced a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange is potentially being prepared. Medinsky confirmed this exchange would occur in the coming days. New reports include a meeting at the Coordination Headquarters with families of servicemen from a Marine brigade to discuss prisoner of war issues, including potential large-scale exchanges and concerns about the process and individuals involved. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Военкор Котенок)
Prisoner of War and Missing Personnel (Russia): A body exchange has taken place. Medinsky confirmed that Russia and Ukraine would exchange prisoners in a "1000 for 1000" format in the coming days. Russian military blogger commentary on the potential prisoner exchange highlights internal perspectives and concerns. New reports from TASS claim that Maria Zakharova stated the initiative for the Istanbul prisoner exchange was Russian. (Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
Internal Issues in Russia: New reports include a criminal case in Khabarovsk involving fraud with salmon caviar and a reported criminal incident in Sosnovoborsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, highlighting internal issues affecting civilians and potentially requiring support for victims. The large-scale outage in Russian state services could also require support for citizens impacted by service disruptions. Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of a monastery in connection with a criminal case, highlighting internal issues and potential support needed for those affected. (Alex Parker Returns, Полиция Хабаровского края, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Psychological Support: Cultural diplomacy and commemoration events in Ukraine can provide psychological support. A tragic domestic incident in Russia potentially linked to a returning soldier highlights potential psychological challenges. New reports include a video allegedly showing a Russian soldier after losing a leg in Ukraine, which underscores the psychological and physical impact of the conflict on individuals. WarGonzo promotes a project for veterans aimed at social adaptation, suggesting a focus on psychological and social support for returning military personnel. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, WarGonzo)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts, repelling numerous attacks and inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses. Utilizing drones for various purposes, including, now confirmed, for intercepting Russian strike drones. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from widespread Russian aerial and artillery attacks. Engaging in high-level diplomatic negotiations and seeking continued international military and political support. Addressing alleged internal military issues related to leadership and tactics, with the General Staff launching an investigation into statements by a commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Engaging in basic training for new recruits and efforts to improve veteran support processes. Commemorating fallen defenders and historical events. Highlighting military units and personnel. Investigating potential internal criminal activities linked to hostile forces. Receiving Abrams tanks from Australia. Denmark is providing a new military aid package. New reports highlight the promotion of a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units to return to service, indicating efforts to address personnel issues. The 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" reportedly used a ground robotic complex to evacuate a wounded soldier north of Kharkiv, highlighting advancements in medical evacuation tactics. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated Russian soldiers wearing thermal cloaks using drones, demonstrating effective counter-camouflage tactics. A meeting was held with families of servicemen from a Marine brigade to discuss prisoner of war issues. Russian sources claim the appearance of a new company of Portuguese mercenaries in the 3rd Assault Brigade on the Krasnoarmeysk and Chasiv Yar directions. New reports from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicate a criminal case against a Ukrainian citizen related to mining a road for occupiers in March 2022, highlighting actions taken by civilians/local defenders early in the conflict. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ on a Washington Post article indicate a potential plan by the Trump administration to use foreign aid for the return of migrants, including Ukrainians, to their home countries, which could impact the availability of personnel. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ highlight Ukrainian counter-recruitment and information operations, including deterring collaboration with Russian forces and reporting suspicious activity. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Forces: Conducting intense ground assaults and extensive aerial attacks across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements including Bogatyr and Novaya Poltavka, and advances on the Konstantinovka direction. Employing a massive number of strike UAVs and imitator drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), extensive artillery and MLRS, and various other drone types. Reporting significant claimed Ukrainian losses in personnel and equipment across all Groups of Forces. Russian military bloggers are actively commenting on tactical situations, equipment use (including unconventional methods), and claimed successes, and engaging in information operations. Russia is strengthening military cooperation with Belarus and planning joint exercises. Domestic incidents potentially linked to returning soldiers are being reported. Russia is utilizing a range of equipment and tactics, including FPV drones and potentially new ground robotic complexes. The Russian Pacific Fleet conducted training firing in the Sea of Japan. New reports include Russian claims of successful strikes on military targets in Chernihiv Oblast, destroying an ammunition depot and a reconnaissance and sabotage group assembly point. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed Ukrainian positions with communication antennas in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces claim the destruction of a Starlink station and an EW system in Kherson Oblast. They also claim destroying Ukrainian vehicles and personnel and "Baba Yaga" drones in the Zaporizhzhia area. The Russian Northern Fleet conducted a naval search and strike drill in the Barents Sea. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of their drone detection systems. Russian military bloggers are discussing the potential prisoner exchange. Russian state media and military bloggers are commemorating the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol and Bakhmut. New reports from Басурин о главном claim Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs, listing various types claimed to have been successfully engaged. New reports include a video shared by Colonelcassad claiming to show a massive night attack by "Geran" drones on an airfield in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, suggesting a focus on targeting military facilities with drones. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is facilitating negotiations. The US is engaging separately with Ukraine and its Vice President met with Zelenskyy. Speculation on former US President Trump's involvement continues. NATO members are providing military aid to Ukraine (including a new package from Belgium and potential transfers from Italy) and conducting military exercises near Russian and Belarusian borders. The Vatican is offering mediation and the new Pope has called for peace negotiations. Other international leaders are engaging with Ukraine. Japan is monitoring the upcoming Trump-Putin call. Australia confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Germany and the US are planning large-scale missile production in Europe. Denmark is providing a new military aid package. New reports include claimed details from Russian sources regarding a Trump-Putin conversation. The EU and UK have imposed significant new sanctions on Russia. A widespread mobile network and internet outage occurred in Spain. Russian sources claim the appearance of Portuguese mercenaries fighting for Ukraine. New reports from Colonelcassad and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicate that the Belgian Minister of Defense stated Belgium is ready to send its troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing" led by France and the UK, immediately after a ceasefire is concluded, indicating potential future military involvement from a third party. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ on a Washington Post article indicate a potential plan by the Trump administration to use foreign aid for the return of migrants, including Ukrainians, to their home countries, which could involve US actions impacting Ukrainian citizens. New reports from RBC-Ukraine indicate that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump, highlighting economic engagement with a third party. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (citing Axios) indicate differing perspectives among the US and European leaders on the Trump-Putin conversation regarding negotiations and sanctions. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones, "Geran," "Baba Yaga," reconnaissance drones). Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery (MLRS "Grad," SAU "Msta-S," 2S7 Pion), and potentially robotic systems in mine warfare. Use of boats for sabotage and reconnaissance (previously). Potential use of ATVs by Ukrainian infantry (targeted by Russian drones, previously). Russian forces are claiming advancements in "Geran" and "Yolka" drone technology and are claiming high rates of downing Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Ukrainian forces reportedly damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion. Russian forces are reportedly developing a new counter-drone kinetic interceptor drone ("Yolka"). Russian forces are reportedly using motorcycle assaults (reported previously). Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction (reported previously). Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes and HIMARS use in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Claims of a Polish mercenary fighting on the Ukrainian side in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). New reports indicate Russian drone activity towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts (reported previously). Russian military bloggers are claiming successes in eliminating Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk using FPV drones (reported previously). Expanding drone activity to include Kirovohrad Oblast and with some drones moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). A new air alert has been issued for Vinnytsia Oblast due to the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south, confirming the expanded area of operations for these systems (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV activity in the southern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, moving northwest/west (reported previously). Russian forces are using mechanized columns. Russian infantry in Bogatyr are reportedly using motorcycles. New reports indicate Russian forces are utilizing FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and communication antennas. Russian forces claim destroying Ukrainian vehicles (MaxxPro, pickup) and "Baba Yaga" drones in the Zaporizhzhia area, with one "Baba Yaga" downed by ramming. The 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" reportedly used a ground robotic complex to evacuate a wounded soldier north of Kharkiv, highlighting a new application of robotic systems in medical support. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated Russian soldiers wearing thermal cloaks using drones, showcasing counter-camouflage tactics. Russia claims Ukraine launched 524 drones and Storm Shadow missiles on May 7th. Russian sources are promoting drone detection systems. New reports from Басурин о главном claim Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs, listing various types claimed to have been successfully engaged. New reports include a video shared by Colonelcassad claiming to show a massive night attack by "Geran" drones on an airfield in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, suggesting a focus on targeting military facilities with drones. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, MoD Russia, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, STERNENKO, Басурин о главном)
Russian Recruitment: Recruitment for the "Akhmat" special forces is ongoing. Recruitment for the "African Corps" is being highlighted. The Register of Summonses has started operating in Moscow (previously reported). Each fourth deceased Russian soldier signed a contract after the start of the conflict (previously reported). New reports include Ukrainian General Staff promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units to return to service, which is an effort to address potential personnel shortages or issues within the Ukrainian military. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Два майора, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts and border regions of Kursk Oblast, underscore Russia's strategic objective of gaining ground and degrading Ukrainian defenses. The high number of combat engagements in areas like Pokrovsk highlights the strategic importance of these sectors. Russian claims of liberating settlements and inflicting heavy losses contribute to their strategic narrative. Ukrainian defenses in these areas are critical for preventing further Russian penetration. New reports include specific Russian claims of destruction of Ukrainian vehicles and personnel in the Zaporizhzhia area and successful strikes on military targets in Chernihiv Oblast. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed appearance of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine and ongoing fighting on the Kursk border, seeking to legitimize their actions and portray external involvement on the Ukrainian side. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad)
The widespread and persistent Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts is a key strategic tactic. This aims to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, inflict damage on critical infrastructure and military targets, and pressure civilian populations. The reported damage to hydrotechnical structures and a bridge in Sumy Oblast and civilian casualties from drone attacks highlight the strategic impact of these strikes. The claimed Russian advancements in drone technology and their extensive use underscore the evolving nature of aerial warfare in this conflict. New reports include renewed launches of KABs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts and a detailed chronology of Russian strikes across multiple regions, emphasizing the scale and geographical spread of this strategic tactic. New reports from Басурин о главном claiming Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs suggest an ongoing strategic effort to degrade Ukrainian reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Офіс Генерального прокурора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном)
The imposition of significant new sanctions by the EU and the UK, particularly targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" and key economic and military sectors, represents a coordinated international strategic effort to increase economic pressure on Russia. This aims to degrade Russia's ability to fund and sustain its military operations and limit its access to critical resources. The targeting of the "shadow fleet" is a direct response to Russia's attempts to circumvent previous sanctions, highlighting the dynamic nature of economic warfare. New reports indicate Trump reportedly told EU leaders he opposed new sanctions against Russia after his conversation with Putin, which could have strategic implications for the effectiveness of international pressure. (STERNENKO, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Diplomatic maneuvering remains intertwined with military signals. The reported Trump-Putin conversation, as presented by Russian sources, and conflicting interpretations thereof, highlight the complex and contested nature of diplomatic efforts and the strategic use of information in this domain. Ukraine's engagement with international figures like the Pope and US officials underscores its strategic efforts to garner international support and influence the diplomatic landscape. Discussions regarding prisoner exchanges are also a key element of diplomatic engagement. New reports include claimed details from Russian sources regarding a Trump-Putin conversation, focusing on security threats and Ukrainian actions. Russian military blogger commentary on the potential prisoner exchange highlights internal perspectives on negotiations. New reports from TASS and Оперативний ЗСУ (citing Axios) indicate differing perspectives on the Trump-Putin conversation regarding negotiations and sanctions. TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia is ready for continued contacts and will propose a memorandum for a peace treaty. TASS also reports Maria Zakharova claimed the initiative for the Istanbul prisoner exchange was Russian. RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US in a letter to former President Trump, indicating a strategic focus on economic diplomacy with a key partner. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Военкор Котенок, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Information operations continue to be a critical strategic tool for both sides. Russia is actively promoting narratives of military success, celebrating claimed "liberations," and utilizing claimed details of the Trump-Putin conversation for strategic messaging. Russian state media's focus on reconstruction in occupied territories aims to normalize their control. Ukrainian sources are countering Russian claims, highlighting their own successes, and promoting efforts to support their military and address internal issues transparently. The Russian information operation regarding potential US deportation of Ukrainians is a clear example of attempting to sow discontent. New reports include Russian state media promoting reconstruction efforts in Mariupol and celebrating the claimed "liberations." Russian military bloggers are using domestic incidents, claims about foreign mercenaries, and commentary on prisoner exchanges for propaganda. Promotion of drone detectors by military bloggers also serves as an information operation highlighting the importance of this equipment. New reports include a Russian information operation regarding a potential US plan to deport Ukrainian migrants. New reports from ASTRA indicate Russian efforts to control information related to military losses, highlighting a focus on managing the domestic narrative. WarGonzo promotes a project for veterans in occupied territories as part of a Russian information operation. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS are disseminating information about the Trump-Putin conversation and its implications, likely as part of a Ukrainian information effort. TASS is reporting on Maria Zakharova's statements regarding negotiations and the prisoner exchange, which are part of Russia's diplomatic information operations. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Два майора, Север.Реалии, Сливочный каприз, Военкор Котенок, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ, WarGonzo)
The increasing reliance on and advancements in drone warfare capabilities by both sides continue to be a significant strategic trend. The development of new drone types, enhanced warheads, and the innovative use of drones for tasks like medical evacuation using robotic complexes underscore the critical role of unmanned systems in this conflict and the ongoing technological competition. The promotion and fundraising efforts for drone-related equipment by Russian military bloggers highlight the perceived importance of these assets. New reports from Басурин о главном claiming Russian success in countering various Ukrainian UAVs highlight the strategic importance of counter-drone capabilities. New reports include a video shared by Colonelcassad claiming to show a massive night attack by "Geran" drones on an airfield in Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, suggesting a strategic focus on targeting military facilities with drones. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, STERNENKO, Басурин о главном)
Internal Russian issues, such as large-scale state service outages and domestic criminal incidents potentially linked to the conflict, can have indirect strategic implications. These issues could affect public perception of stability and governance within Russia and potentially impact recruitment or support for the war effort. The Justice Minister's statement on statehood versus rights reflects a potential shift in legal and political philosophy with long-term strategic implications for internal governance and control. New reports from ASTRA indicate searches at a TV channel and the chief editor's home in Ivanovo related to reporting on missing servicemen, highlighting state control over information which has strategic implications for internal stability and the narrative surrounding the conflict. Alex Parker Returns reports the detention in St. Petersburg of a staff member of a monastery in connection with a criminal case, highlighting internal security concerns. TASS reports over 2,300 people are recognized as victims in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case, an update on a major internal security investigation. (Север.Реalii, ASTRA, ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Efforts by the Ukrainian General Staff to address personnel issues, such as promoting the return of absentees, are strategically important for maintaining force strength and readiness. The focus on addressing prisoner of war issues also has strategic implications for military families and potentially for future exchanges as part of diplomatic processes. New reports from Оперативний ЗСУ on a Washington Post article indicate a potential plan by the Trump administration to use foreign aid for the return of migrants, including Ukrainians, to their home countries, which could impact the availability of personnel and necessitate strategic planning for potential returnees. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Военкор Котенок, Оперативний ЗСУ)
The statement by the Belgian Minister of Defense regarding the readiness to send troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, as part of a "coalition of the willing," is a significant strategic development. It indicates a potential future commitment of military personnel from a key NATO and EU member state, although conditional on a ceasefire. This could influence strategic planning on both sides regarding post-conflict security arrangements and the potential for international troop presence. (Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Ukraine's proposal for a free trade agreement with the US is a strategic economic initiative aimed at strengthening ties with a major international partner. This has long-term strategic implications for Ukraine's economic recovery and integration into the global economy. (РБК-Україна)
The criminal case in Ukraine related to a Ukrainian citizen mining a road for occupiers early in the conflict highlights the complexities of wartime actions by civilians and local defenders and has strategic implications for how such actions are viewed and addressed legally within Ukraine. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report