Sitrep 2025-05-19 20:14:11

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 19, 2025, 20:13 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and persistent widespread Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. The most significant development continues to be the concluded telephone conversation between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump. Putin has characterized the conversation as "frank and substantive" and expressed gratitude for Trump's support for resuming direct Moscow-Kyiv talks. He stated that a ceasefire with Ukraine is possible upon reaching relevant agreements and that a memorandum with Ukraine could include ceasefire questions and settlement principles, indicating a potential willingness to work towards a peace agreement. Putin assessed that the resumption of contacts in Istanbul suggests the parties are "on the right track." Trump has characterized the conversation as "very good" and stated that Russia and Ukraine will "immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War," suggesting a potential immediate diplomatic breakthrough. He also expressed optimism about significant trade opportunities between the US and Russia after the conflict, benefiting both nations, and noted he would inform European leaders of the conversation. A Russian source claims Trump stated he sees Russia as a key trade partner for the US after the conflict. Russian sources also report that Putin and Trump discussed a prisoner exchange of 9 for 9 people and that while a personal meeting was not scheduled, both sides supported further normalization of relations. They also claim Putin noted Trump's positive role in getting Kyiv back to the negotiating table. Ukrainian sources report Trump informed Zelenskyy about the call before speaking with Putin and that Zelenskyy is awaiting a call to learn the results. A Ukrainian political scientist expresses low expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough from the call. A Ukrainian diplomat stated that territories are not a "red line" for negotiations, but preserving the army, language, and faith are. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not withdraw troops from its territory or yield to Russian ultimatums, and asked Trump not to make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. He also mentioned that Ukraine and allies are considering a new meeting with Russia in Turkey, Vatican, or Switzerland. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine seeks a ceasefire as a first step and welcomed Trump's offer of an unconditional ceasefire. He also discussed with Trump the possibility of more serious US sanctions against Russia and the significant impact the US has on Putin's ability to fund the war. Zelenskyy clarified that Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its course towards NATO membership or adopting a neutral status, as these are enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution. He also stated that Ukraine is waiting for Russia's proposal for a memorandum that could lead to a peace treaty. Zelenskyy confirmed he spoke with Trump twice, including with European leaders (Macron, Meloni, Merz, Stubb, von der Leyen), discussing further steps and evaluating proposals, emphasizing the need for US involvement and outlining consequences if Russia does not cease hostilities or makes unrealistic demands.

Reports from Russian sources continue to claim tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast, specifically near Otradnoye and in Bogatyr, detailing clearing operations and the elimination of Ukrainian personnel. Russian military bloggers are now claiming advances on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering the village of Romanovka and clearing areas north of Krymske. They are also highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including Bradley and MaxxPro vehicles, near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources highlight the continued effectiveness of their drone units in countering Russian armor and personnel and report successful drone strikes on Russian logistics on the Kurakhivka direction and against Russian infantry, a quad bike, and a "loaf" vehicle in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the detonation of an ammunition depot. They also claim the destruction of Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and the burning of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the use of various military assets, including RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Ukrainian sources report the Ukrainian General Staff relieved the commander of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems, citing his order to withdraw a unit from positions due to the threat of encirclement. This decision is reportedly being attributed to both Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy. Russian sources are now claiming Russian forces have liberated the village of Maryino in Sumy Oblast, pushing Ukrainian units back beyond the state border and beginning the creation of a "buffer zone" in Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka. Russian military bloggers are reporting continued pressure and advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, stating that the situation is becoming significantly more complicated for Ukrainian forces east and northeast of the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, with fighting reportedly shifting closer to Novoekonomicheskoe near Mirnograd and Russian forces moving towards Konstantinovka. Russian forces are also claiming to have captured a key Ukrainian stronghold near the settlement of Novoye, highlighting the capture of a multi-level underground fortress. Russian military blogger "Два майора" shared a video claiming that the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division is operating on the Konstantinovka direction and that this area remains one of the most dynamic in terms of Russian troop advancement.

The extensive Russian aerial activity is confirmed by Ukrainian sources tracking numerous drone groups across a wide swath of Ukraine and reporting on devastating KAB attacks, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and now also in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Russian sources also report on drone activity, including claimed destructions of Ukrainian UAVs and the use of Russian drones in offensive operations and reconnaissance. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the success of their counter-drone efforts, including the downing of "Shaheds" with heavy machine guns. A Ukrainian mother was killed and her 4-year-old son injured in a Russian drone strike in Kyiv Oblast, highlighting the continued civilian impact of these attacks. Russian sources report new groups of drones on the border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian Air Force reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast and a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Latest reports indicate Russian strike UAVs are active in central and southern Sumy Oblast (southwest/southeast course), southeastern Chernihiv Oblast (southwest course), on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course), on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course), southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northeast course), and northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (east course). Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east and on Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Internal Russian issues, including recruitment efforts, alleged historical falsification regarding biolaboratories in Ukraine, social initiatives like promoting traditional values, and domestic security concerns (such as escaped convicts, youth conflicts, and incidents of desecration) continue to be highlighted in Russian information channels. Tensions on the Belarus-Latvia border related to migration are also reported. Propaganda efforts by both sides are evident in the dissemination of information about military actions, casualties, and diplomatic developments. Fundraising efforts continue to be highlighted by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, underscoring the reliance on public support for various military and paramilitary activities. Concerns are raised about the potential for legal action against North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the International Criminal Court for alleged support of Russia's war efforts. A new Russian decree has been signed by Putin on state monitoring of harm caused to Russia by foreign sources, particularly related to restrictive financial measures. Claims of violations in the construction of defensive structures in Belgorod Oblast and a military serviceman facing pressure for reporting wage theft by a businessman are also being reported, highlighting potential internal issues within the Russian military and governance. Mass blocking of Russian PlayStation accounts due to sanctions is also being reported. An incident of alleged rape by a Russian serviceman in occupied Donetsk Oblast has been reported. A Russian politician has requested a check on Nestle baby food due to alleged issues in France. A Russian Vice Speaker of the State Duma reportedly stated that more significant constitutional changes are planned in Russia. The Israeli ground operation in Gaza continues. Belarusian authorities have initiated criminal proceedings and declared wanted 125 individuals allegedly associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a Belarusian volunteer unit fighting for Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Justice has sharply criticized the Decembrists of 1825, framing their actions as hindering reforms and the monarchy's response as "too liberal," which is a statement on internal Russian history and political thought. ТАСС reports a warning from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs about a new fraud scheme using Telegram and that Putin proposed expanding a grant program for gifted students to sports and culture, and stated that the role of "Sirius" in Russia's development should increase. WarGonzo shares a video of a Moscow music group giving a concert in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a large cache of NATO weapons and ammunition found near Kurakhove and is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. ASTRA reports the Russian Minister of Justice criticized the Decembrists of 1825. Alex Parker Returns comments on Putin's appearance after the call and is promoting a project for young people. ТАСС reports on a prosecutor's check regarding a traffic accident in Istra, Moscow Oblast, involving a moose and that Putin expressed condolences for the death of choreographer Yuri Grigorovich. Новости Москвы shares a video related to the moose incident and reports that the first humanitarian building of Moscow State University is closed for quarantine due to measles. ASTRA reports a scandal in Vologda Oblast. Kotsnews publishes a commentary on Alexander Ovechkin and supporting Donbas. Глеб Никитин reports on a cultural project linking Russian cities and featuring documentary film about the "special operation". ASTRA reports that Shaman will represent Russia at the "Intervision" music contest. Colonelcassad shares a video about accepting new members into the Pioneer organization on Red Square, highlighting a historical and potentially politically relevant event, and comments on the situation regarding embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod Oblast. Sky News commentary suggests Trump has not significantly pressured Russia. Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin is urging local authorities in frontline areas to install anti-drone netting to protect roads. The Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatii, commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments, stating that additional checks have been appointed and there will be a "harsh crackdown" on those involved, emphasizing the need for trust between the people and the army. Russian military bloggers "Два майора" are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel, highlighting the need for enhanced protection.

New information reinforces the ongoing nature and intensity of Russian drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts and the devastating impact of KABs, now including Dnipropetrovsk. It confirms the conclusion and stated positive nature of the "Putin"-Trump phone call, with Putin expressing gratitude for support for renewed direct talks and indicating a potential willingness to discuss a ceasefire and peace agreement with Ukraine. Trump's subsequent statements further amplify the potential for immediate negotiations and a broader focus on post-conflict trade. Conflicting perspectives surrounding potential negotiations and a ceasefire continue, with Ukrainian sources expressing concern, a Ukrainian diplomat clarifying "red lines," and now Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stating Ukraine's position on troop withdrawal, ultimatums, potential meeting locations, and the desire for a ceasefire as a first step. Zelenskyy's clarification that Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its NATO course or neutral status is a crucial update on Ukraine's negotiation position. Russian claims of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast are reiterated and expanded to include the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, along with details of their operations and claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and now the liberation of Bogatyr. Russian claims of capturing a key stronghold near Novoye indicate continued offensive efforts in Donetsk. The highlighting of internal Russian efforts and information operations continues, with new details emerging about migration issues, internal security concerns (including an alleged rape by a serviceman in occupied territory, fraud schemes, and internal political/social commentary), issues related to military support and governance (including alleged violations in defensive construction and wage theft), potential constitutional changes, and domestic consumer safety concerns. Fundraising appeals are also repeated. Discussions are ongoing about the potential for an ICC arrest warrant against North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. A significant internal Ukrainian military development is the reported relief of the 59th Brigade's commander and the incident with the TCC in Kharkiv. The new Russian decree on monitoring harm from foreign sources signals a strategic effort to quantify external pressures. The reported violations in defensive construction and the case of the military serviceman highlight potential internal issues within the Russian system. The civilian casualty in Kyiv Oblast underscores the continued human cost of the conflict. The mass blocking of PlayStation accounts highlights the ongoing impact of sanctions on Russian citizens. The information regarding the Israeli operation in Gaza provides further detail on a significant external conflict. Claims regarding a prisoner exchange were also reported. The Belarusian action against individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment adds a new element related to Belarusian involvement and internal political dynamics. The Russian Minister of Justice's public criticism of the Decembrists provides insight into the current Russian government's interpretation of historical events and its emphasis on stability and a strong state. The results of the first round of the Polish presidential election are reported, indicating a second round and highlighting internal Polish political dynamics relevant to the regional context. New reports emphasize continued Russian pressure and claimed advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, with claims of tactical and operational shifts in these areas. Ukraine is reiterating its position on not withdrawing troops or accepting ultimatums, and is exploring options for further negotiations involving multiple parties. European leaders have reportedly agreed to increase sanctions against Russia after the Trump-Putin call, indicating a coordinated response to the high-level diplomatic engagement. Russian sources are highlighting embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod. Russian sources are fundraising for Starlink stations. A Russian cultural project is linking cities and featuring documentary films about the "special operation". A measles outbreak in Moscow is reported. Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade is advocating for anti-drone netting in frontline areas. Sky News commentary suggests Trump hasn't significantly pressured Russia. New information highlights ongoing internal Ukrainian military efforts to address alleged corruption within the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade, with a high-ranking commander promising a "harsh crackdown". Russian military bloggers are actively fundraising for vehicle armor, indicating a perceived need for enhanced protection against current threats.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Russian KAB Launches on Kharkiv Oblast: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. This indicates a continuation or new instance of Russian aerial bombardment on this region using precision-guided munitions.
Russian KAB Launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This also indicates a continuation or new instance of Russian aerial bombardment on this region using precision-guided munitions.
Updated Russian Drone Movements: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated summary of enemy strike UAV movements across multiple oblasts: central and southern Sumy (southwest/southeast course), southeastern Chernihiv (southwest course), border of Sumy and Poltava (southeast course), border of Poltava and Kharkiv (east course), southeastern Dnipropetrovsk (northeast course), and northern Zaporizhzhia (east course). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine specifically reports enemy strike UAVs in the direction of Sumy city and Myrhorod. This provides the latest details on the ongoing and widespread Russian drone attack.
Ukrainian Commander Comments on 155th Brigade Scandal: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares comments from Mykhailo Drapatii, Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, regarding the scandal involving the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade and alleged business on combat payments. Drapatii states that additional checks have been appointed, emphasizes the need for trust between the people and the army, and promises a "harsh crackdown" on those involved. This indicates that internal investigations into the allegations are ongoing at a high level and that the Ukrainian military leadership is publicly addressing the issue.
Russian Military Bloggers Fundraising for Vehicle Armor: Два майора shares a video and text fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to provide steel armor kits for Russian military vehicles. This highlights a specific effort by Russian military bloggers to support their forces with enhanced protection, suggesting a recognized vulnerability of their vehicles to current threats.
Trump States "Some Progress" in Russia-Ukraine Settlement: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a quote from Trump stating there is "some progress" in the settlement between Russia and Ukraine after his conversation with Putin. He also commented on the "terrible situation" and the involvement of other European leaders. This reinforces the narrative of potential diplomatic movement following the high-level call, albeit with a more cautious assessment of progress.
Europe Will Increase Pressure on Moscow with Sanctions: Оперативний ЗСУ and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report, citing German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, that Europe will increase pressure on Moscow with sanctions. This is stated as an agreement with Trump after his conversation with Putin and highlights a coordinated international response to the high-level diplomatic engagement.
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Putin-Trump Talks: Два майора shares a video with commentary on the outcomes of the Putin-Trump negotiations. This provides a Russian military blogger's perspective on the high-level talks, likely framing them in a way that aligns with Russian interests or narratives.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Experience from Liberated Bogatyr: Воин DV shares a video featuring a soldier from Buryatia with the call sign "Angel" who participated in the claimed liberation of Bogatyr. The soldier discusses nuances of the assault and being wounded, providing a personal account from a Russian perspective on recent combat operations.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Alexandropol, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Novaya Poltavka, Dzerzhynsk, Konstantinovka, Romanovka, Krymske, Pokrovsk, Kurakhivka, Lyman, Novoye): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims the liberation of Alexandropol and Bogatyr and claims advances on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering Romanovka and clearing areas north of Krymske. Ukrainian forces are actively defending and using drones effectively. Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian temporary deployment points. A large cache of NATO weapons was reportedly found near Kurakhove. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Donetsk Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are reported in the west of Donetsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces captured a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye, describing it as a multi-level underground fortress. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian T-72B3 tank was burned on the Lyman direction. STERNENKO shares a video claiming successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian quad bikes and a motorcycle, including on the Kurakhivka direction. Два майора shares a video claiming the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment is operating on the Konstantinovka direction and that it remains one of the most dynamic.
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia area, Velikaya Chernetchina, Sumy city): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including claimed "Geran" strikes and drone movements. Russian strike UAVs are active in central and southern Sumy Oblast (southwest/southeast course) and on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course), with some heading towards Sumy city. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kharkiv Oblast (Lyptsi, Kharkiv city): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are reported in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course) and are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Odesa Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district, Myrhorod): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northeast course) and are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino area, Borisovka, Borisovsky district): Affected by Ukrainian cross-border attacks and claimed Russian defensive actions.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Borisovka, Borisovsky district): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures reported.
Crimea (Dzhankoy, northern part): Experiencing a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight.
Dagestan (Russia) (Dokuzparinsky district): Affected by a rockfall causing gas supply disruption.
Black Sea (Novorossiysk area): Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) warned.
Kolomna (Russia): Location of the incident involving the death of an Iskander missile developer due to a domestic dispute.
Uzhhorod area: Location where an individual attempting to cross the border into Slovakia on a monowheel was detained.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Air raid alert issued in communities except for Zaporizhzhia city due to air activity. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are active in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (east course) and are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast (southwest course). (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Poltava Oblast (Myrhorod): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course) and on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course), and are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kyiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread Russian drone activity overnight, with 62 launched and 36 claimed downed. Russia claims downing 80 aircraft-type Ukrainian drones over the past day and destroying Ukrainian UAVs over Bogatyr and Crimea. Russia claims successful "Geran" strikes on Ukrainian staging areas and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian infantry and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian border guards used a camera trap to detect an individual attempting to cross the border on a monowheel. Ukrainian forces are using drones effectively against Russian armor and personnel. Ukrainian forces claim destroying Russian drone teams and a UAV command post using Grad MLRS. Ukrainian forces claim destroying a Russian T-72B3 tank, potentially with a drone. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Latest reports indicate Russian strike UAVs are active across Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are using drones against Russian quad bikes and a motorcycle. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment, including drones and anti-drone systems. Deputy Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade urges installation of anti-drone netting. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, including on Donetsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Russia claims downing 3 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Aviation Activity: Active Russian tactical aviation on eastern, southeastern, and northeastern directions with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket over the past day. (ТАСС)
Naval Activity: Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) near Novorossiysk warned. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense actively engaged against the large-scale Russian drone attack, claiming 36 downed. Russia claims downing 80 Ukrainian drones and other aerial weapons. Russian air defense is active against Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea. Ukrainian air defense is engaged against incoming Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. Deputy Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade urges installation of anti-drone netting. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery and MLRS use. Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket. Russian forces used Grad MLRS to destroy Ukrainian drone teams. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС reports on a large cache of NATO weapons and ammunition near Kurakhove, including artillery and mortar shells. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Ukrainian air defense efforts included the use of EW. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Putin discussed the Istanbul negotiations with Tokayev. Erdogan stated the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and Turkey will continue efforts for a settlement. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism about potential negotiations. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not withdraw troops or yield to ultimatums, desires a ceasefire as a first step, and is considering future meetings in Turkey, Vatican, or Switzerland. Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its NATO course or neutral status. Ukraine is waiting for Russia's proposal for a memorandum. Zelenskyy spoke with Trump twice, including with European leaders, discussing next steps and evaluating proposals. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews)
Russia-Kazakhstan Relations: Putin's phone call with Tokayev to discuss the Istanbul negotiations. (ТАСС)
Russia-Turkey Relations: Erdogan's statement on the impossibility of a military solution and Turkey's continued efforts for a settlement, including the role of the Istanbul negotiations. (ТАСС)
Russia-United States Relations: Concerns raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism. Trump commented on the call and potential progress. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call, indicating a coordinated response. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном)
Russia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia Relations: Putin signed a decree simplifying Russian citizenship for citizens of these regions. (ТАСС)
Support for Ukraine from Local Authorities: Detailed report from Kryvyi Rih on significant material and technical assistance provided to various military units and services. (Олександр Вілкул)
Internal Russian Politics: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Simplified Russian citizenship for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Report on a domestic dispute involving an Iskander missile developer. Putin proposed expanding grant programs to sports and culture and commented on "Sirius". Reports of scandal in Vologda Oblast, fraud scheme in Telegram, and potential constitutional changes. Russian Minister of Justice criticized the Decembrists. Cultural project linking Russian cities. Russian representative at Intervision contest announced. Accepting new members into Pioneer organization on Red Square. Putin expressed condolences for choreographer. Measles outbreak in Moscow. Prosecutor's check on moose incident. Commentary on Alexander Ovechkin. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod. War-themed poem shared. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo)
Humanitarian Issues: Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel highlights the impact of the conflict and mobilization on individuals. Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. Civilian casualties from Russian attacks continue. Prisoner exchanges are being discussed. FATALITY and injuries from Russian shelling in Sumy Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Басурин о главном)
International Pressure: US and Europe will strengthen sanctions if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call. Europe will increase pressure on Moscow with sanctions, according to German Chancellor Merz. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Belarus-Latvia Tensions: Ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns on the border. (Два майора)
Potential ICC Action: Potential for an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Decree on Foreign Harm Monitoring: Putin signed a decree on state monitoring of harm caused by foreign sources. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Satirical video about burying Russian paratroopers and photo message about turning Russia into a museum exhibit. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Expert Assessment: Assessment that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a massive offensive on Sumy Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Adaptation and Modernization: Efforts to adapt and modernize military vehicles with public support. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Polish Presidential Election: Analysis of the first round. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
Romanian Presidential Election: Analysis of the second round and record voter turnout abroad. (Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, РБК-Україна)
Alleged War Crimes: Report of alleged rape by a Russian serviceman in occupied Donetsk Oblast. (ASTRA)
Belarusian Action Against Volunteers: Belarusian authorities initiating criminal proceedings and declaring wanted individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. (РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Military Issues: Report on the relief of the Commander of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade and alleged business on combat payments, promising a "harsh crackdown" on those involved. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): Significant material and technical assistance provided by local authorities in Kryvyi Rih to various military units and services. Ongoing fundraising efforts. Ukraine is receiving international military aid. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС reports on a large cache of NATO weapons and ammunition found near Kurakhove. (Олександр Вілкул, STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Veteran Support (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Military Personnel Support (Russia): Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Fundraising for military equipment is ongoing. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора)
Prisoner of War and Missing Personnel: A large-scale body exchange has occurred. Speculation on a large-scale prisoner exchange continues. Discussion of prisoner exchange between Putin and Trump. Zelenskyy stated that if Russia does not release prisoners, it will deserve additional sanctions. (Басурин о главном, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація))
Internal Issues in Russia: Reports on internal issues, including criminal activity and the alleged scandal in Vologda Oblast. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod reported. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, Два майора)
Law Enforcement and Evasion of Mobilization (Ukraine): Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel detained. Investigation into death at a TCC in Kharkiv. Incident in Pervomaiskyi TCC in Mykolaiv Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
Psychological Support: Cultural diplomacy and commemoration events in Ukraine. Domestic incident in Russia potentially linked to a returning soldier. War-themed poem shared by Russian military blogger. (РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo)
Veteran Status and Benefits (Ukraine): Efforts to improve administrative processes for obtaining veteran status are reported.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and aerial attacks. Utilizing drones effectively for targeting and reconnaissance. Countering Russian drone attacks with air defense, including kinetic and EW means. Receiving international military aid and material support from local authorities. Training in mountainous terrain. Experiencing casualties and facing mobilization challenges. Internal military review of the 47th Brigade allegations. 35th Marine Brigade operating south of Bohdanivka. Using HIMARS and other artillery. Using drones against Russian quad bikes and a motorcycle. Claiming destruction of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Internal investigations into alleged corruption within the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade. Deputy Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade advocates for anti-drone netting. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олександр Вілкул, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, MoD Russia, DeepState, STERNENKO, Народная милиция ДНР, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Russian Forces: Conducting intense ground assaults and extensive aerial attacks across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing a massive number of strike UAVs and imitator drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), extensive artillery and MLRS, and various other drone types. Reporting significant claimed Ukrainian losses. Russian military bloggers are actively commenting on tactical situations and claimed successes. Strengthening military cooperation with Belarus and planning joint exercises. Domestic incidents potentially linked to returning soldiers. Utilizing FPV drones and potentially new ground robotic complexes. Utilizing air defense systems. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. Claimed Russian destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles using drones. Russian military reports destruction of Ukrainian transport and UAV control point in Druzhba. Два майора shares a video claiming the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment is operating on the Konstantinovka direction and that it remains one of the most dynamic. Воин DV shares a video featuring a soldier from Buryatia who participated in the claimed liberation of Bogatyr. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey facilitating negotiations. The US engaging separately with Ukraine and its Vice President met with Zelenskyy. Speculation on former US President Trump's involvement continues. NATO members providing military aid and conducting military exercises. The Vatican offering mediation. Other international leaders engaging with Ukraine. Belarusian authorities taking action against individuals fighting for Ukraine. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase pressure on Russia with sanctions after the Trump-Putin call. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones, reconnaissance drones). Russian military bloggers showcasing equipment use and tactics. Adaptation and modernization of vehicles in Ukraine with public support. Use of guided aerial bombs and artillery/MLRS. Potential threat of USVs. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. Claimed Russian destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles using drones. Ukrainian forces are using drones against Russian quad bikes and a motorcycle. Claimed destruction of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction, potentially involving drone targeting. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС reports on a large cache of NATO weapons and ammunition found near Kurakhove. Deputy Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade urges installation of anti-drone netting. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Personnel: Both sides reporting significant personnel losses. Russian forces deploying personnel from various units. Ukrainian forces facing mobilization challenges. Internal military review of the 47th Brigade allegations and investigation into the 155th Brigade. Attempt to evade military service. Commemorations of fallen soldiers. Discussion of prisoner exchanges. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments, indicating personnel issues are being addressed at a high level. Воин DV shares a video featuring a soldier from Buryatia who participated in the claimed liberation of Bogatyr. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, WarGonzo, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition, STERNENKO, Два майора, Narodnaya militsiya DNR, Воин DV)
Counterintelligence: Reported detention of a Ukrainian citizen in occupied Rubizhne for alleged espionage. Reported detention of a 17-year-old FSB agent in Kyiv. (Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The ongoing and widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones and KABs continues to be a primary strategic challenge for Ukraine, aimed at degrading military and civilian infrastructure and pressuring the population. The latest reports detailing the specific movements of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts underscore the breadth of this strategic effort.
The concluded Trump-Putin phone call, despite the conflicting narratives surrounding potential negotiations, remains a significant strategic development with the potential to influence the diplomatic trajectory of the conflict. Putin's expressed willingness to discuss a ceasefire and a future peace agreement, coupled with Trump's emphasis on immediate negotiations, keeps a diplomatic channel open and could be a strategic maneuver to influence international opinion or leverage perceived battlefield gains. Trump stating there is "some progress" reinforces the narrative of potential diplomatic movement.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's clear articulation of Ukraine's strategic position – no troop withdrawal, no yielding to ultimatums, no abandonment of NATO course or neutral status, desire for a ceasefire as a first step, and emphasis on the need for multilateral involvement in negotiations – is crucial for defining Ukraine's "red lines" and influencing the framework of any future peace talks. His engagement with Trump and European leaders highlights a strategic effort to ensure Ukraine's voice is heard in high-level discussions.
Russia's claims of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast, including on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions and the claimed liberation of Bogatyr and capture of a key stronghold near Novoye, contribute to their strategic narrative of making progress and can be used to justify continued offensive operations and potentially strengthen their hand in any negotiations.
The extensive Russian aerial activity, including the launching of КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the widespread movement of strike UAVs across multiple regions, underscores the ongoing strategic objective of degrading Ukrainian infrastructure and capabilities from the air.
Internal Russian issues, such as alleged violations in the construction of defensive structures in Belgorod Oblast and a military serviceman facing pressure for reporting wage theft, while not directly military, can have indirect strategic implications by potentially impacting social stability, trust in authorities, and highlighting potential issues within the military and governance structures that could affect morale and effectiveness. The Russian Minister of Justice's criticism of the Decembrists, while historical, can be seen as reinforcing a strategic narrative about the importance of stability and strong state control. The cultural project linking Russian cities and featuring documentary film about the "special operation" is a strategic effort to link the conflict to Russian identity and history.
The reported relief of the Commander of the Ukrainian 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems and the comments from a high-ranking Ukrainian commander regarding the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade and alleged corruption are significant internal military developments. Addressing such issues is strategically important for maintaining discipline, trust, and combat effectiveness within Ukrainian forces.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for "Frontline Armor" highlight a perceived strategic need for enhanced protection of military vehicles against current threats, suggesting that existing armor is insufficient or vulnerable.
The agreement among European leaders to increase pressure on Russia with sanctions after the Trump-Putin call is a significant strategic development as it indicates a coordinated international response to the diplomatic engagement and a continued commitment to economic pressure as a means of influencing Russian behavior.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report