Sitrep 2025-05-19 07:14:48

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 19, 2025, 07:13 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, a persistent and geographically widespread Russian aerial offensive employing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic efforts intertwined with conflicting military signals. The latest reporting provides further detail on the massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 112 UAVs, with Ukrainian air defense forces claiming to have neutralized 76 (41 destroyed by fire, 35 suppressed by EW), and highlights impacts in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. Intense ground fighting continues across multiple directions, with Russian sources claiming tactical advances and the liberation of settlements. Russian forces continue to employ guided aerial bombs, and a variety of drone types, while also reportedly engaging in counter-drone efforts. Diplomatic discussions and international political developments continue to be reported, with ongoing commentary from various sources. Internal Russian affairs, including legal proceedings and information operations, remain relevant. Ukrainian sources are highlighting successful military actions and commemorating key historical events. A significant development is the reported Russian drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in one fatality and one critically injured civilian, and a similar attack on a car in Kherson city, injuring two civilians. Another key report is the Ukrainian SBU's claimed destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using a combination of surface and aerial drones. Russian military bloggers are discussing negotiations, battlefield effectiveness, and internal Russian issues, while also highlighting the ongoing need for and acquisition of equipment through fundraising. Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast due to increased shelling.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Details on Massive Overnight Russian Drone Attack: Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provide detailed reports on the massive overnight Russian drone attack. They confirm that Russia attacked with 112 strike UAVs (specifically "Shaheds" and other types) and imitator drones. Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly neutralized 76 of these drones by 09:30 on May 19th, with 41 destroyed by fire and 35 locationally lost or suppressed by EW. The attack impacted Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force also announced a change in reporting format for night attacks due to new enemy tactics and increased use of UAVs and imitators. This provides crucial detail on the scale, composition, and effectiveness of the Russian aerial assault and the Ukrainian response.
Ukrainian SBU Claims Destruction of Russian Radar and Warehouses on Black Sea Platforms: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share videos and reports claiming that the Ukrainian SBU used a combination of surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian "Neva" radar station and warehouses located on Ukrainian gas production platforms in the Black Sea. The reports emphasize the effectiveness of using two types of drones in combination and state that the radar was used for monitoring air and surface conditions. STERNENKO also shares this information, noting that FPV drones purchased through their fundraising were used in the operation. This is a significant claim of a successful Ukrainian strike against Russian assets at sea, degrading their reconnaissance capabilities and potentially impacting their control of strategic infrastructure in the Black Sea. Два майора comments on this, noting that the SBU showed footage of using unmanned surface vessels (USVs) with drones and alleging that the use of Starlink is why Ukraine can control these assets.
Russian Drone Attack on Civilian Car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast: Север.Реалии reports that a Ukrainian drone attacked a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in the death of one woman and critical injury to another woman, who has an open craniocerebral injury and multiple shrapnel wounds. Two vehicles were damaged. This highlights a tragic incident with civilian casualties in a Russian border region, attributed by Russia to a Ukrainian drone. Два майора also reports on this, confirming the fatality and severe injury and expressing condolences.
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Civilian Car in Kherson City: РБК-Україна reports that Russians dropped explosives from a drone onto a car in Kherson city, injuring two men (64 and 51 years old), both with serious injuries including explosive, craniocerebral, and shrapnel wounds, and concussions. This highlights a similar tragic incident with civilian casualties in a Ukrainian frontline city, attributed to a Russian drone.
Russian Claims of Preventing Attacks on Police in Stavropolye: ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 report that the Russian FSB prevented planned attacks on police on May 9th in Stavropolye. Nine individuals, eight of whom were reportedly minors (14-16 years old), were allegedly involved as followers of a "international terrorist organization" and planned to attack police during Victory Day celebrations. One detained individual has reportedly confessed. This highlights internal security concerns and counter-terrorism efforts within Russia, involving minors.
Presentation of Book on the Destruction of the Moskva Cruiser: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a video reporting on the presentation of a book titled "The Hunt for the Cruiser Moskva" in Kyiv. The book is described as a fundamental study of the Ukrainian military operation to destroy the Moskva, focusing on the planning and execution and the role of Ukrainian engineers, military, and intelligence officers. This is a strategic communication effort by Ukraine to commemorate a significant military success and highlight the professionalism and courage of their forces.
Ongoing Assaults on Zaporizhzhia Front near Mala Tokmachka: Два майора shares a video with a caption stating that assaults have started on the Zaporizhzhia front near Mala Tokmachka and that Russian forces are "working." This indicates continued Russian offensive efforts in this specific area.
Ukrainian Drone Activity from Sumy Border Moving Southwest: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that targets from the Sumy border are moving in a southwest direction. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial reconnaissance or potential attack preparation originating from Russian territory bordering Sumy Oblast and moving deeper into Ukraine.
Fundraising Initiative for FPV Drones through Knife Sales: STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("Rusoriz") in collaboration with the company Ibis to sell a limited edition of designer knives ("SKIF Vulture Rusoriz"). All profits will go towards purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military. This highlights continued civilian-led support for acquiring crucial military equipment through unconventional means.
Russian Claim of Liberation of Bogatyr Impacting Ukrainian Actions: ТАСС reports that Pushilin stated the liberation of Bogatyr will bring adjustments to the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and that the reallocation of forces from Krasnoarmeysk is not excluded. This is a Russian assessment of the tactical and potential strategic implications of a claimed territorial gain, suggesting it may necessitate a shift in Ukrainian force posture in another key area.
Russian Claim of Advances on Krasnolimansky Direction: ТАСС reports that Pushilin stated the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the Krasnolimansky direction. This is a Russian claim of tactical success on another front.
US Preparing New Sanctions Against Russia with Criticism from Trump Camp: РБК-Україна reports, citing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that the US and Europe will decisively strengthen sanctions against Russia if Putin does not conduct peace negotiations with Ukraine "in the spirit of good will." The report also includes criticism from the Trump camp (specifically Bessent) stating that current sanctions under the Biden administration have been "very ineffective." This highlights continued international pressure on Russia through the threat of sanctions and reveals differing perspectives within the US political sphere on the effectiveness of current policy.
Australia Sending Abrams Tanks to Ukraine: Colonelcassad reports that Australia will send the first part of decommissioned Abrams tanks to Ukraine, with a total of 49 planned to be transferred. The report notes these will help compensate for losses, with Ukraine having lost around 20 Abrams tanks in 2024-2025. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports this, citing ABC News, stating the first batch of 49 tanks has already departed for Europe and notes reported US skepticism about the effectiveness of these tanks due to drone warfare vulnerabilities. This is a confirmed transfer of heavy armor to Ukraine, providing additional capabilities, but also highlights a potential vulnerability in the context of drone warfare.
Russian Tactical Aviation Activity on Eastern Direction with Threat of Guided Aerial Weapons: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern direction with a threat of using aerial weapons for frontline areas. This indicates ongoing Russian air support for ground operations and the continued risk of strikes in eastern Ukraine.
KAB Launches by Russian Tactical Aviation: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and on Sumy Oblast. This confirms continued heavy bombardment in these border and frontline regions.
Enemy UAV Heading Towards Kharkiv from the North: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV heading towards Kharkiv city from the north and that measures are being taken to shoot it down. This indicates continued Russian aerial reconnaissance or potential attack efforts targeting Kharkiv.
Civilian Casualties and Damage from Russian Drone Attacks in Sumy Oblast: ASTRA reports that two people were injured as a result of Russian drone attacks on Sumy Oblast overnight, with damage to infrastructure and a vehicle. A 44-year-old security guard was injured in the Shostka community where drones damaged four houses, and a 47-year-old local resident was injured in the Esman community in the evening. An industrial infrastructure object, residential buildings, and a private car were also damaged near Konotop, and minor damage occurred to a private house in Verkhnie Pishchane village. This confirms civilian casualties and damage from Russian drone activity in Sumy Oblast.
NATO Conducting Aerial Reconnaissance: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of a map showing a Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis aircraft, stating that the enemy, in the person of NATO, is again conducting aerial reconnaissance. This highlights ongoing NATO surveillance activities, likely in areas bordering the conflict zone or Russia.
Summary of Western Media Reports by Russian Military Blogger: Kotsnews provides a summary of reports from The New York Times (women in the AFU), Reuters (European readiness for troop deployment in Ukraine), and The Times (potential Trump-Putin meeting). This offers insights into how the conflict and related political developments are being discussed in Western media, as presented by a Russian source.
Russian MoD Claims FPV Drones Destroyed Ukrainian Communication and EW Stations: MoD Russia shares a video claiming that FPV drones of the Yug Group destroyed Ukrainian communication means and EW stations near Serebryanka (Siversk direction) and targeted communication antennas, UAV control, and radio relay stations near Bogatyr. They claim the AFU lost at least three communication systems. This is a Russian claim of successful targeting of key Ukrainian assets using FPV drones, aiming to disrupt command, control, and electronic warfare capabilities on specific fronts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition also discusses the fighting in Bogatyr and claims that Ukrainian forces primarily relied on drones but avoided close combat.
Ukrainian Military Blogger Claims Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Personnel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel. The video title "Incendiary journey of narrow goblins" and the accompanying text ("goblins were fried and turned back on a journey to Kobzon's concert") suggest successful Ukrainian drone attacks causing casualties among Russian forces and is presented with derogatory language and black humor. The post mentions reconnaissance and adjustment by the SICARIO unit and strike drones from "friendly units." This is a Ukrainian claim of inflicting personnel losses using drones and is used for morale-boosting and propaganda. The video also shows burning vehicles, suggesting equipment losses.
SBU Claims Destruction of Russian Radar and Warehouses on Black Sea Platforms (RBC-Ukraine): РБК-Україна shares a video and report similar to ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAIGHTS and STERNENKO, claiming the SBU used drones (surface and aerial) to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on "Boyko's towers" (gas production platforms) in the Black Sea. This reinforces the claim of a successful Ukrainian strike against Russian assets at sea using combined drone tactics.
Captured Russian Soldier from Kherson Direction: Николаевский Ванёк shares a video featuring a captured Russian soldier (Yury Sergeevich Shestera, 2nd MSB, 28th MSP, mobilized on September 22, 2022) who reportedly participated in assaults on the Dacha area on the Kherson direction. The soldier reportedly complains about command, claims he was told the area was secure by Russian forces when captured, and states he bought Starlink and a car with his own money, had only one leave, wants to go home, and doesn't want to return to the conflict. This provides potential human intelligence on Russian personnel, morale, command issues, and conditions on the Kherson front.
Russian Military Blogger Reports Threatening Relatives of Ukrainian Soldier who Went to Russia: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the command of the AFU has threatened the relatives of a Ukrainian soldier from the 225th separate assault regiment who reportedly "deserted" and went to Russia. This highlights potential internal issues related to personnel retention and alleged actions against families of those who defect or desert.
Fundraising for FPV Drones (STERNENKO): STERNENKO shares a further message about the limited edition knives fundraising for FPV drones, indicating ongoing efforts to acquire this equipment.
Russian Report on Murder and Dismemberment in Moscow: ТАСС reports that a man who killed his acquaintance in northeastern Moscow confessed he did so to seize and sell the victim's apartment. This is an internal criminal report from Russia.
Russian Oil Transshipment in Mediterranean near Gibraltar: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports on Russian oil transshipment activities in the Mediterranean Sea near Gibraltar, noting that a Russian tanker is involved and a Kalibr missile carrier is also present, indicating the presence of a Russian warship. This highlights potential ongoing efforts to circumvent sanctions through maritime transfers and the presence of Russian naval assets in the area.
Information on Bot for Mobilization, Conscripts, etc.: Mobilization | News | Srochniki provides information on their Telegram bot, which allows users to report on mobilization, conscripts, video appeals, legal questions, and search for missing persons. This is a resource for information related to personnel aspects of the conflict, likely from a Russian perspective, and can be used to gather and disseminate information on these topics.
Fatal Traffic Accident in Kalmykia: TASS reports a fatal traffic accident in Kalmykia where a LADA Priora driver hit two pedestrians, killing a 61-year-old woman and injuring a 30-year-old woman.
Fatal Accident Involving Gymnast in Magnitogorsk: TASS reports a fatal accident involving a gymnast in Magnitogorsk during training, where a 12-year-old girl fell from uneven bars.
Commemoration of World Family Doctor Day and Doctors on Front Line: Oleksandr Vilkul commemorates World Family Doctor Day, highlighting the role of doctors in Kryvyi Rih and noting that 15 family doctors from the city are currently serving on the front line. This highlights the contribution of medical personnel from civilian life to the war effort and the impact of the conflict on the medical profession.
Ongoing Assaults on Zaporizhzhia Front near Mala Tokmachka (Два майора): Два майора repeats the report that assaults have started on the Zaporizhzhia front near Mala Tokmachka.
Military Correspondent Kotsnews Summarizes Western Media Reports: Kotsnews provides a summary of reports from The New York Times (women in the AFU), Reuters (European readiness for troop deployment in Ukraine), and The Times (potential Trump-Putin meeting). This offers insights into how the conflict and related political developments are being discussed in Western media, as presented by a Russian source.
Russian MoD Claims FPV Drones Destroyed Ukrainian Communication and EW Stations (MoD Russia): MoD Russia shares a video claiming that FPV drones of the Yug Group destroyed Ukrainian communication means and EW stations near Serebryanka (Siversk direction) and targeted communication antennas, UAV control, and radio relay stations near Bogatyr. This reinforces the claim of successful targeting of key Ukrainian assets using FPV drones.
Dnevnik Desantnika Reports 35 Ukrainian UAVs Shot Down: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that 35 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight by air defense duty means: 26 over Crimea, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, and 1 over Belgorod Oblast. This aligns with previous reports from Russian sources on Ukrainian drone activity targeting these regions and Russian efforts to counter them.
Russian Claim of Large Cache of NATO-Style Weapons Near Kurakhovo: ТАСС reports that a large cache of weapons and ammunition, including NATO-style, was discovered near Kurakhovo by police. This includes over two thousand munitions, 14 explosive devices, over 200 kg of gunpowder, a PG-9 grenade launcher, a Javelin ATGM, over 20 different grenades, over 50 tank and mortar shells, and 29 grenade launcher shots. This is a Russian claim of discovering significant quantities of Western-supplied weapons, which can be used for propaganda to highlight the flow of foreign aid to Ukraine and justify Russian actions.
Southern Ukraine Defense Forces Report on Activity in the South: Sili oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy provides a detailed operational report for the Southern direction over the past day. Key points include:
- Russian forces continue artillery, kamikaze drone, and aerial attacks on settlements near the frontline.
- In the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 24 attacks.
- In the Huliaipole direction, no offensive actions were conducted, but there was one air strike.
- In the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 2 attacks towards Novodanylivka.
- In the Prydniprovskyi direction, there was one unsuccessful attempted advance.
- Overall, Russian forces conducted over 320 shellings, used 1400 munitions, conducted 590 kamikaze drone strikes, and had almost 300 drone drops over the past day in the South.
- FPV drone strikes affected civilians in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
- Two civilian deaths and six injuries occurred in Kherson Oblast due to Russian aggression.
- Nine Russian aviation strikes were conducted on civilian and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, using two guided aerial bombs (KABs) and a hundred unguided aerial missiles (NAR).
- Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 76 Russian personnel, 1 boat, 2 cannons, 2 mortars, 2 Shahed-136 strike UAVs, 3 motorcycles, 1 quad bike, 2 generators, 4 Starlink antennas, 4 communication antennas, 102 dugouts/shelters, 4 ammunition storage places, and 1 UAV control point. This report provides a comprehensive Ukrainian perspective on the intensity of fighting, Russian tactics (artillery, drones, aviation, KABs, NAR, attempted advances), the humanitarian impact (civilian casualties, FPV drone strikes on civilians), and Ukrainian successes in inflicting losses on Russian forces and equipment in the South.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight, resulting in casualties and damage. Air defense was active.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovskyi, Bogatyr, Krasnoarmeysk, Krasnolimansky direction, Serebryanka, Kurakhovo, Dacha area): Intense ground combat continues across multiple directions. Russian forces claim advances and liberation of Bogatyr, assessing its strategic impact. Russian forces claim advances on the Krasnolimansky direction. Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian assets near Serebryanka and Bogatyr. Ukrainian forces repelled numerous attacks in the Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi directions in the South. Russian military bloggers report intense fighting near Mala Tokmachka on the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukraine claims a large cache of NATO-style weapons was discovered near Kurakhovo. A Russian soldier captured on the Kherson direction (Dacha area) is reported. Affected by Russian aerial assaults overnight.
Kharkiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity and ground assaults. Russian tactical aviation is active on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons. KABs were launched by Russian tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and on Sumy Oblast. An enemy UAV is heading towards Kharkiv from the north. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault.
Sumy Oblast (Shostka community, Esman community, Konotop, Verkhnie Pishchane): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Russian tactical aviation launched KABs on Sumy Oblast. Two people were injured and infrastructure was damaged by Russian drone attacks overnight. Enemy targets are moving southwest from the Sumy border. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mala Tokmachka): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Russian military bloggers report ongoing assaults near Mala Tokmachka. Russian aviation strikes were conducted on civilian and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts using KABs and NAR. Affected by FPV drone strikes on civilians. Affected by Russian artillery attacks on frontline territories.
Turkey (Istanbul): Continues to be a location for diplomatic discussions, although the timing and progress remain uncertain.
Russia (Belgorod Oblast - Shebekino, Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, Stavropolye, Kalmykia, Magnitogorsk, Moscow): Internal issues and security concerns continue, including preventing attacks on police. Russian forces claim downing Ukrainian drones over border regions and Crimea. A Russian drone attack on a car in Shebekino resulted in civilian casualties. Fatal accidents were reported in Kalmykia and Magnitogorsk. A murder and dismemberment case was reported in Moscow. Affected by reported Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Russian military bloggers provide commentary on negotiations, battlefield effectiveness, and internal Russian issues.
Romania: Location of recent presidential election.
Libya (Tripoli): Mentioned in a summary of events in Black Africa by a Russian military blogger.
Congo: Mentioned in a summary of events in Black Africa by a Russian military blogger.
Sudan (Darfur): Mentioned in a summary of events in Black Africa by a Russian military blogger.
Ukraine (Cherkasy Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast): Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks overnight.
Australia: Location of confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
United States: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. US is preparing new sanctions against Russia. Criticism from the Trump camp regarding the effectiveness of current sanctions.
Germany: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions.
France: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions.
United Kingdom: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions.
Italy: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions.
Poland: Candidates for the second round of presidential elections are reported. Russia is conducting an information operation during the elections.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by FPV drone strikes on civilians.
Kherson Oblast (Kherson city, Dacha area): Affected by FPV drone strikes on civilians, Russian artillery attacks on frontline territories, and Russian aviation strikes on civilian and critical infrastructure (KABs, NAR). Civilian casualties were reported due to Russian aggression, including from a drone attack on a car in Kherson city. A Russian soldier captured in the Dacha area is reported.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by FPV drone strikes on civilians and Russian artillery attacks on frontline territories. Kryvyi Rih is providing support to doctors on the front line.
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Location providing support to doctors on the front line.
Black Sea: Location of Ukrainian SBU's claimed destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms using combined surface and aerial drones. Presence of a Russian Kalibr missile carrier reported during oil transshipment near Gibraltar. No enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected in the Black Sea as of 06:00 UTC. A Ukrainian boat was reportedly destroyed in the South.
Azov Sea: No enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected as of 06:00 UTC.
Mediterranean Sea: Three enemy ships, including one Kalibr carrier, are present. Russian oil transshipment activities near Gibraltar are reported.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread. A massive overnight Russian attack involved 112 strike UAVs and imitator drones, with 76 neutralized by air defense (41 kinetic, 35 EW). The attack impacted multiple oblasts. Russian forces used 2960 kamikaze drones over the past day and almost 300 drone drops in the South. 590 kamikaze drone strikes occurred in the South. Two people were injured and infrastructure was damaged by Russian drone attacks in Sumy Oblast. An enemy UAV is heading towards Kharkiv from the north. Enemy targets are moving southwest from the Sumy border. Russia claims downing 35 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Crimea, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts (26 Crimea, 8 Bryansk, 1 Belgorod). A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. Russians dropped explosives from a drone onto a car in Kherson city, injuring two civilians. Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian communication and EW stations near Serebryanka and Bogatyr. Ukrainian military bloggers claim Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel. Ukrainian SBU claims destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using combined surface and aerial drones. Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 2 Shahed-136 strike UAVs and 3 antenna control UAVs in the Southern direction.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense actively countered a massive overnight Russian drone attack, neutralizing 76 out of 112 UAVs using kinetic and EW means. Air defense measures are being employed against an enemy UAV heading towards Kharkiv. Russia claims downing 35 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Crimea, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts. NATO is conducting aerial reconnaissance, which involves air defense systems being on alert.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces. 124 guided aerial bombs were used by the aggressor over the past day. Russian tactical aviation launched KABs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and on Sumy Oblast. Two guided aerial bombs were used in nine Russian aviation strikes on civilian and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the South.
Aviation Activity: Russian forces conducted 78 aviation strikes over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is active on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons for frontline areas. KABs were launched by Russian tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and on Sumy Oblast. Nine Russian aviation strikes were conducted on civilian and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the South, using two guided aerial bombs (KABs) and a hundred unguided aerial missiles (NAR).
Naval Activity: Ukrainian SBU claims destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using combined surface and aerial drones. A Russian Kalibr missile carrier is present near Gibraltar in the Mediterranean Sea. No enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 UTC. Three enemy ships, including one Kalibr carrier, are present in the Mediterranean Sea. One boat was reportedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction over the past day.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. Russian forces conducted 5134 shellings, including 116 from MLRS, over the past day. Over 320 enemy shellings using 1400 munitions occurred in the South over the past day. Russian artillery attacks were conducted on frontline territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in the South. Two cannons and two mortars were reportedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction over the past day. A large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition, including artillery and mortar shells, was discovered near Kurakhovo.
Electronic Warfare (EW): 35 Russian UAVs were locationally lost or suppressed by EW overnight. Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian EW stations near Serebryanka and Bogatyr. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed an EW asset over the past day (implied from ОТУ "Харків" previous report). Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 4 Starlink antennas and 4 communication antennas in the Southern direction over the past day, which are related to communication and potentially EW targeting.
Unguided Aerial Missiles (NAR): Used by Russian aviation in strikes on civilian and critical infrastructure in the South. A hundred unguided aerial missiles were used in nine Russian aviation strikes on civilian and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the South.
Mine Warfare: A large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition, including over 100 German anti-tank mines, was discovered near Kurakhovo.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue. US and Europe will strengthen sanctions if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. Criticism from the Trump camp on current sanctions.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated regarding ceasefire conditions.
International Pressure: US and Europe will strengthen sanctions against Russia if negotiations are not in good faith. Criticism from the Trump camp on current sanctions.
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings and security concerns continue, including preventing attacks on police involving minors. A murder and dismemberment case was reported in Moscow.
Romania Presidential Election: Outcome reported.
Polish Presidential Election: Candidates for the second round are reported. Russia is conducting an information operation during the elections.
US Politics: Health of former President Biden reported.
Russia-US Relations: Planned conversation between Trump and Putin.
Black Africa Events: Summary provided by Russian military blogger.
Social Media and Information Control: Elon Musk supports Pavel Durov's refusal to block channels (previously reported).
Humanitarian Concerns: Civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks in Sumy Oblast and from Russian aggression in Kherson Oblast, including FPV drone strikes on civilians and a drone attack on a car in Kherson city. A Russian drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulted in civilian casualties. Evacuations are ongoing in border regions of Sumy Oblast.
Finland's Stance: Finnish President Stubb reportedly tried to dissuade Trump from rapprochement with Russia.
UK's Stance: Starmer discussed the war with leaders from the US, Italy, France, and Germany ahead of Trump's call with Putin.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Discussion in an interview about the future of relations, including border blockades and refugees. Russia is conducting an information operation during the elections in Poland.
Germany's Stance: Discussed readiness for troop deployment in Ukraine and focus on a ceasefire and clarifying formats for peace talks and security guarantees (previously reported).
Italy's Stance: Discussed readiness for troop deployment in Ukraine and focus on a ceasefire and clarifying formats for peace talks and security guarantees (previously reported).
Argentina: Non-military video about the President of Argentina shared by a Ukrainian source.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings and security concerns continue, including preventing attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye. A murder and dismemberment case was reported in Moscow. Fatal accidents were reported in Kalmykia and Magnitogorsk.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat, claiming advances and liberation of Bogatyr. Russian tactical aviation is active on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons. Russian forces used 2960 kamikaze drones over the past day. 590 kamikaze drone strikes and almost 300 drone drops occurred in the South over the past day. Russian forces conducted 78 aviation strikes, dropping 106 guided aerial bombs, and 4735 shellings (including 122 from MLRS) over the past day. Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian communication and EW stations near Serebryanka and Bogatyr. Russia claims downing 35 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Crimea, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts. A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. Russian military bloggers provide commentary on negotiations, battlefield effectiveness, and internal Russian issues. A Russian soldier captured on the Kherson direction is reported. Ongoing assaults are reported on the Zaporizhzhia front near Mala Tokmachka. Russia claims advances on the Krasnolimansky direction. A large cache of NATO-style weapons was discovered near Kurakhovo.
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported from Russian drone attacks in Sumy Oblast and from Russian aggression in Kherson Oblast, including FPV drone strikes on civilians and a drone attack on a car in Kherson city. Civilian casualties were reported in Belgorod Oblast due to a claimed Ukrainian drone attack. A murder and dismemberment case was reported in Moscow. Fatal accidents were reported in Kalmykia and Magnitogorsk.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions. Claimed liberation of Bogatyr and advances on Krasnolimansky direction are reported. Claims of downing Ukrainian UAVs over border regions and Crimea. A Russian drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties, is reported by a Russian source. Russian military bloggers provide commentary on negotiations, battlefield effectiveness, and internal Russian issues. A large cache of NATO-style weapons was discovered near Kurakhovo, which can be used for propaganda. A Russian soldier captured on the Kherson direction is reported by a Ukrainian source.
Judicial System: Internal legal proceedings continue. A murder and dismemberment case was reported in Moscow. FSB prevented planned attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye.
Social Policy: Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents (previously reported). Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported).
Mobilization and Recruitment: Information on a bot for reporting on mobilization and conscripts is provided.
Stavropolye (Russia): Location where FSB prevented planned attacks on police involving minors.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues, including confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks from Australia. Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defense and counter-drone operations. Support for military personnel from regional administrations (previously reported). Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 76 Russian personnel and various equipment in the Southern direction over the past day, highlighting their effectiveness and the need for continued support.
Veteran Support (Ukraine): Doctors from Kryvyi Rih are serving on the front line.
Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing aerial assets, artillery, and drones, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing (implied from military blogger activities).
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported due to Russian strikes, including from a massive overnight drone attack and from FPV drone strikes on civilians in the South. Civilian deaths and injuries in Kherson Oblast due to Russian aggression, including a drone attack on a car in Kherson city. Commemoration of fallen defenders and historical events (Moskva cruiser). Support from regional administrations (previously reported). Doctors from Kryvyi Rih are serving on the front line.
Civilian Support (Russia): Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack. Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation (previously reported). Fatal accidents were reported in Kalmykia and Magnitogorsk.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents (previously reported). Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing (implied from military blogger activities).
Ukrainian Commemorative Practices: Presentation of a book about the destruction of the Moskva cruiser.
Military Medical Support (Ukraine): Doctors from Kryvyi Rih are serving on the front line.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a massive overnight drone attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, neutralizing 76 out of 112 UAVs (41 kinetic, 35 EW) in a massive overnight attack and taking measures against an enemy UAV near Kharkiv. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, including reportedly 76 personnel and various equipment in the South over the past day. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks, including a drone attack on a car in Kherson city and FPV drone strikes on civilians in the South. Receiving Abrams tanks from Australia. Repelling numerous Russian attacks in the Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi directions in the South. Claiming destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using combined surface and aerial drones. Ukrainian military bloggers claim Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel. A Russian soldier captured on the Kherson direction (Dacha area) is reported. Commemorating key historical events (Moskva cruiser). Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Threatening relatives of a Ukrainian soldier who reportedly went to Russia is reported by a Russian source.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes and liberation of Bogatyr and advances on the Krasnolimansky direction. Utilizing extensive aerial assets, including a massive overnight attack with 112 strike UAVs and imitator drones, of which 76 were neutralized by Ukrainian air defense. Using 2960 kamikaze drones and almost 300 drone drops over the past day, with 590 kamikaze drone strikes in the South. Conducting 78 aviation strikes, dropping 106 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and 4735 shellings (including 122 from MLRS) over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is active on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons. Launching KABs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and on Sumy Oblast. An enemy UAV is heading towards Kharkiv from the north. A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. Russians dropped explosives from a drone onto a car in Kherson city, injuring two civilians. Claiming downing 35 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Crimea, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts. Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian communication and EW stations near Serebryanka and Bogatyr. Russian military bloggers are discussing negotiations, battlefield effectiveness, and internal Russian issues. Ongoing assaults are reported on the Zaporizhzhia front near Mala Tokmachka. A large cache of NATO-style weapons was discovered near Kurakhovo. Claiming to have prevented attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye. Utilizing a Kalibr missile carrier in the Mediterranean during oil transshipment.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation (previously reported). Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are providing military aid to Ukraine, including confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks from Australia. The Czech Republic is cooperating with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previously reported). The UN is involved (previously reported). The EU is discussing further sanctions. France has commented on Russia's stance (previously reported). Sweden and other Nordic/Baltic countries have issued a joint statement (previously reported). Finland and Estonia are mentioned in Russian information operations (previously reported). Bulgaria and Denmark are providing military and financial support and coordinating diplomatic efforts (previously reported). Poland has commented on the Istanbul talks and coordination with Trump (previously reported). The Netherlands is increasing its defense assistance to Ukraine (previously reported). Montenegro is strengthening cooperation and discussing EU integration (previously reported). Pope Leo XIV has offered mediation (previously reported). NATO is conducting aerial reconnaissance. Starmer discussed the war with leaders from the US, Italy, France, and Germany ahead of Trump's call with Putin.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides (strike, reconnaissance, FPV, "Shahed," "Geran-2," imitator drones, "Baba Yaga," aircraft-type). Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs, NAR), artillery, MLRS. Use of surface and aerial drones in combination for strikes against naval/offshore targets. Russian forces reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian communication and EW stations. Ukraine is fundraising for FPV drones. A large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition was discovered near Kurakhovo, including a Javelin ATGM and other munitions. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 2 Shahed-136 strike UAVs and 3 antenna control UAVs, 4 Starlink antennas, and 4 communication antennas in the Southern direction. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 1 boat, 2 cannons, 2 mortars, 3 motorcycles, 1 quad bike, and 2 generators in the Southern direction. Russian forces reportedly used motorcycles and light armored vehicles in assaults (previously reported). Russian military bloggers discuss the effectiveness of "Geran" drones and the need for counter-drone equipment.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 112 strike UAVs and imitator drones across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, with 76 neutralized, and reported impacts in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued capacity to launch large-scale aerial assaults aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and striking targets across a wide geographical area. The use of imitator drones is a strategic tactic to complicate air defense efforts. The reported impacts across multiple oblasts highlight the widespread nature of the threat. The Ukrainian Air Force's change in reporting format due to new Russian tactics underscores the evolving nature of the aerial threat and the need for Ukrainian adaptation.
The Ukrainian SBU's claimed destruction of a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using a combination of surface and aerial drones is strategically significant. If verified, this demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike Russian assets at sea using innovative combined drone tactics, degrading Russian naval reconnaissance capabilities and potentially impacting their control of strategic offshore infrastructure.
The confirmed shipment of Australian Abrams tanks to Ukraine is a tangible strategic development increasing Ukraine's heavy armor capabilities and demonstrating continued international military support. The note about these tanks compensating for losses and the reported US skepticism about their effectiveness against drones highlights key strategic considerations regarding the utility of traditional armor in the current conflict.
The ongoing intense ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, and the Russian claims of advances and liberation of settlements, underscore Russia's strategic objective of gaining ground and degrading Ukrainian defenses. The high number of attacks in specific directions, such as Novopavlivka and Orikhiv in the South, reflects continued pressure on key areas. The reported ongoing assaults near Mala Tokmachka and advances on the Krasnolimansky direction are further indicators of active Russian offensive efforts. The Russian assessment that the liberation of Bogatyr will impact Ukrainian actions and may lead to troop reallocation from Krasnoarmeysk highlights the strategic implications of territorial gains.
Ongoing diplomatic discussions and the prospect of new US and European sanctions linked to negotiation progress highlight the continued strategic efforts to leverage international support and economic pressure to influence the conflict. The differing perspectives within the US political sphere regarding the effectiveness of current sanctions are a relevant factor in the broader international strategic landscape.
The reports of continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory, including the tragic attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties, and the claimed downing of numerous UAVs over Russian border regions and Crimea, are strategically significant. These actions demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike targets within Russia, creating pressure on border regions and potentially impacting morale. Russia's claims of preventing attacks on police involving minors in Stavropolye can be used within Russian information operations to highlight perceived threats and justify security measures.
The Russian drone attack on a car in Kherson city, injuring two civilians, highlights the strategic objective of inflicting harm and terror on civilian populations in frontline cities. This tactic aims to create psychological pressure and disrupt civilian life.
The presentation of a book on the destruction of the Moskva cruiser is a strategic communication effort by Ukraine to commemorate a significant military success, boost national morale, and highlight the capabilities and courage of their forces.
Fundraising initiatives for FPV drones in Ukraine, such as the sale of limited edition knives, are strategically relevant as they highlight continued civilian support for the war effort and the reliance on non-state resources for acquiring key military equipment.
The report on a captured Russian soldier from the Kherson direction provides potential human intelligence on Russian personnel, morale, and conditions on the front line.
The report from Sili oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy provides a crucial localized strategic overview of the situation in the South. The detailed breakdown of enemy attacks, munition usage, civilian casualties, and Ukrainian successes in repelling assaults and destroying equipment offers valuable tactical and operational intelligence that informs the strategic picture in this vital region.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report