Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 18, 2025, 23:43 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, a persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. A notable aspect of the current situation is the anticipation of a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight, with multiple groups of UAVs reported in various regions and a confirmed attack targeting Crimea. Diplomatic discussions, including the fallout from the recent Istanbul talks and the prospect of high-level US-Russia contact involving former President Trump's team, continue to influence the strategic backdrop. Both sides remain engaged in information operations, attempting to shape narratives about battlefield successes, casualties, and political developments. Internal issues within both Ukraine and Russia, such as mobilization challenges, logistical concerns, and social dynamics, continue to be reported and have potential implications for the conflict's trajectory. Recent reports indicate the reported death of a Latvian mercenary fighting for Ukraine and the disruption of a Russian military map service due to financial issues. A localized incident of a rockfall disrupting gas supply in Dagestan, Russia, is also reported.
Significant new updates since the previous report include:
- Air Raid Alert Map Update: РБК-Україна shares an updated map of air raid alerts in Ukraine. This map indicates ongoing air raid alerts in several oblasts, visually reinforcing the widespread nature of the current aerial threat across Ukraine. The highlighted red areas likely represent regions currently under air raid alerts or experiencing active conflict, aligning with the reported drone activity.
- Massive Drone Attack Targeting Crimea: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the enemy (Ukraine) is attacking Crimea throughout the night with a massive drone attack. They specifically mention the direction of Dzhankoy and other areas in the northern part of the peninsula, and state that Russian air defense forces are shooting down many drones. This is a significant new development indicating a large-scale Ukrainian aerial operation targeting Russian-occupied territory.
- Gas Supply Disruption in Dagestan, Russia: ТАСС reports that over 5,000 residents of Dagestan have been left without gas supply due to a rockfall in Dokuzparinsky district. This is a non-military incident but highlights a localized infrastructure disruption within Russia.
- Updated Russian Drone Movements Reported: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна provide updated information on Russian drone movements. This includes reports of:
- Drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
- Drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed updates:
- 1 drone flown past Zaporizhzhia heading northwest.
- 1 drone flown between Kamianske and Dnipro heading north.
- 1 new drone northeast of Lyptsi heading southeast.
- 6 drones from Sumy Oblast crossing into northern Poltava Oblast.
- 8 drones under Nizhyn (Chernihiv) heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
- 4 drones heading towards/through Pryluky (Chernihiv).
- 1 drone north of Nizhyn heading south.
This detailed information continues to highlight the widespread and multi-directional nature of the current Russian drone threat across several oblasts.
Changes to the Situation from New Messages:
- Ukrainian Drone Attack on Crimea: The most significant change is the confirmed report of a massive Ukrainian drone attack targeting Crimea. This indicates a new area of intense aerial activity and represents a strategic effort by Ukraine to strike targets in occupied territory.
- Continued and Detailed Russian Drone Activity: The new messages provide further specific numbers, locations, and directions of Russian drones in several oblasts (Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kharkiv), reinforcing the understanding of the ongoing widespread and potentially coordinated Russian drone attack overnight.
- Air Raid Alert Status Across Ukraine: The updated air raid alert map provides a real-time visualization of the aerial threat across Ukraine, confirming that multiple regions are currently under alert.
- Internal Russian Infrastructure Disruption: The report of a gas supply disruption in Dagestan due to a rockfall, while not directly related to the conflict, is a new piece of information about internal issues within Russia.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
- Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast, and 6 drones from Sumy Oblast crossing into northern Poltava Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity and previously reported air raid alerts. New reports indicate drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 1 drone flown past Zaporizhzhia heading northwest, and 1 drone flown between Kamianske and Dnipro heading north. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 1 drone flown between Kamianske and Dnipro heading north. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
- Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast, and 6 drones from Sumy Oblast crossing into northern Poltava Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
- Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn, Pryluky): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 8 drones under Nizhyn heading towards Kyiv Oblast, 4 drones heading towards/through Pryluky, and 1 drone north of Nizhyn heading south. (Николаевский Ванёк)
- Kyiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 8 drones under Nizhyn (Chernihiv) heading towards Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
- Crimean Peninsula (Dzhankoy, northern part): Experiencing a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight. This is a new area of significant activity. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
- Dagestan (Russia) (Dokuzparinsky district): Affected by a rockfall causing gas supply disruption. (ТАСС)
- Kharkiv Oblast (Lyptsi): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 1 new drone northeast of Lyptsi heading southeast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
- Kamianske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 1 drone flown between Kamianske and Dnipro heading north. (Николаевский Ванёк)
- Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 4 drones heading towards/through Pryluky. (Николаевский Ванёк)
- Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast): Affected by Russian aerial activity. New reports indicate 8 drones under Nizhyn heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and 1 drone north of Nizhyn heading south. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
- Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread. Russian forces are conducting a large-scale drone attack across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Ukraine is conducting a massive drone attack targeting Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report on Russian drone movements from Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed updates on Russian drone movements in various oblasts. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a massive Ukrainian drone attack targeting Crimea. The updated air raid alert map indicates widespread alerts across Ukraine due to ongoing aerial activity. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
- Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is active across multiple oblasts countering Russian drone attacks, reflected in the widespread air raid alerts. Russian air defense forces are actively countering the Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea. The updated air raid alert map indicates widespread alerts across Ukraine due to ongoing aerial activity, implying Ukrainian air defense engagement. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russian air defense forces are shooting down many drones targeting Crimea. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
- International Diplomatic Contacts Regarding Ukraine: ТАСС reports that Keir Starmer discussed Ukraine in a phone call with Trump, Macron, Merz, and Meloni. This indicates ongoing high-level international diplomatic engagement concerning the conflict.
- Trump Wishes Biden Speedy Recovery: РБК-Україна reports that Donald Trump has sent his best wishes to Joe Biden for a speedy and successful recovery following a recent medical diagnosis. This is a non-military development but relevant to the US political landscape.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
- Infrastructure Disruption: ТАСС reports that over 5,000 residents of Dagestan have been left without gas supply due to a rockfall. This is a new reported incident of infrastructure disruption within Russia.
- Social Policy: ТАСС reports that Yana Lantratova has proposed standardizing the schedule for submitting documents to universities. This is a new report on potential changes to domestic social/educational policy in Russia.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
- The massive Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea is a significant strategic development. It demonstrates Ukraine's capability and intent to strike targets deep within Russian-occupied territory. This could be aimed at degrading Russian military infrastructure in Crimea, disrupting logistics, or as a psychological operation. The targeting of Dzhankoy, which hosts a significant airbase, is particularly noteworthy.
- The continued widespread Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, confirmed by detailed reporting on movements and the air raid alert map, highlights Russia's ongoing strategic objective of pressuring and degrading Ukraine's infrastructure, military assets, and civilian morale through persistent aerial attacks. The multi-directional nature of the attack suggests an attempt to overwhelm air defenses across a broad area.
- The report of high-level international diplomatic engagement concerning Ukraine, including a call between Keir Starmer and multiple world leaders, indicates that the conflict remains a major focus of international concern and underscores efforts to find diplomatic paths or coordinate responses.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
