Sitrep 2025-05-18 02:34:37

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 18, 2025, 02:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains dominated by widespread and intense Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with a continued focus on Kyiv and the surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged directly over and around Kyiv, with reports of explosions in the capital. The drone threat near Vasylkiv remains significant and dynamic, with multiple groups in the area. Intense ground combat persists, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces claim tactical advances and the liberation of settlements like Rekodub and Volnoye Pole. Russian information operations continue to disseminate narratives of military success and alleged Ukrainian "atrocities," alongside reports on various internal Russian issues, including high-profile arrests and legal proceedings. Diplomatic discussions regarding potential peace negotiations continue, with the US linking progress to potential further sanctions against Russia. Non-military events, such as the outcome of the Eurovision contest and a maritime incident in New York, are also present in the incoming data streams. A significant development is the report of fatalities and injuries in Kyiv Oblast resulting from the ongoing drone attack, specifically in Obukhivskyi district.

New information further refines the understanding of the ongoing Russian drone attack, detailing the specific locations and numbers of drones across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts. Reports of explosions in Kyiv are confirmed. Russian sources continue to claim tactical successes in Donetsk Oblast and disseminate propaganda regarding alleged Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast. Internal Russian legal and domestic issues remain present in reporting. Updates on a high-profile arrest in Moscow and proceedings against "Rusagro" founders are noted. Russia claims to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Video footage and commentary from Russian sources provide claimed visual evidence and tactical details of the capture of Volnoye Pole. A weekly summary of criminal cases in Khabarovsk Krai offers insight into internal Russian law enforcement activity. A maritime incident involving a vessel colliding with the Brooklyn Bridge in New York has also been reported by multiple sources. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Starlink station and multiple Ukrainian drone control points. News regarding an alleged ballistic missile attack by Houthi forces on Israel is also reported. Tragically, the ongoing drone attack has resulted in casualties in Kyiv Oblast, with one woman reported killed and three others (including a child) injured in Obukhivskyi district. Damage to a private house and a multi-story building has also occurred, and a fire broke out at a feed mill in Fastivskyi district.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Confirmed Casualties and Damage in Kyiv Oblast: РБК-Україна reports, citing Mykola Kalashnyk, head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration, that one woman was killed and three others (a 61-year-old man, a 59-year-old woman, and a 4-year-old child) were injured in Obukhivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast, as a result of the Russian attack. The injured are in moderate condition. A private house was destroyed, and windows in a nearby multi-story building were damaged. This confirms direct civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from the current aerial attack.
Fire at Feed Mill in Fastivskyi District: РБК-Україна reports that a fire occurred at a feed mill in Fastivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast, as a result of the attack. This indicates damage to civilian infrastructure and potential economic impact.
Updated Drone Tracking and Localization (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк provides updated, granular tracking information on the remaining drone locations and numbers across Kyiv Oblast. This includes 1 drone flying towards Kyiv via Boyarka, 1 approaching Vasylkiv (with a warning of potential loud noise), 1 each west and east of Bila Tserkva heading towards Fastiv, 1 heading towards or through Makariv, and 1 transferring from Poltava Oblast to Kyiv Oblast. This further refines the understanding of the immediate aerial threat in the capital region.
Russian Standards for Baby Food: ТАСС reports that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients. This is an internal Russian domestic development related to consumer goods standards.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (Vasylkiv, Fastiv, Bilotserkivskyi district, Boryspil, Pereyaslav, Boyarka, northern, western, and eastern parts of the oblast, Ukrainka, intersection with Zhytomyr Oblast, Pryluky area, Obukhivskyi district, Makariv): Affected by widespread air raid alerts and active air defense operations against a large number of Russian drones. Reports of explosions in Kyiv are emerging. Tragically, one woman was killed and three others (including a child) were injured in Obukhivskyi district, with a private house destroyed and damage to a multi-story building. A fire also occurred at a feed mill in Fastivskyi district. The drone threat near Vasylkiv remains significant and dynamic. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones and that air defense work continues on enemy aerial targets in Kyiv and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv, and the continuation of air defense work in Kyiv and reports explosions in Kyiv and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv Oblast and a drone group in eastern Zhytomyr heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Kyiv Oblast, including near Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Boryspil, Pereyaslav, and in Bilotserkivskyi district, noting threats near Vasylkiv and reporting 12 drones still near Vasylkiv, later specifying a reduction to 6 but with new groups arriving, resulting in 9 still heading towards or through Vasylkiv. His latest updates provide a detailed breakdown of drone locations and numbers across Kyiv Oblast, including 1 under Boyarka, 8 near Vasylkiv, 5 in the Fastiv area, 4 in Bilotserkivskyi district, 1 approaching Boryspil, 1 northern of Vasylkiv, 1 northern of Ukrainka flying towards Vasylkiv, 2 in the Fastiv area, and 1 at the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv Oblasts. His latest updates further detail drone movements, including 1 through Boyarka towards Kyiv, 1 approaching Vasylkiv, 1 each west and east of Bila Tserkva towards Fastiv, 1 towards or through Makariv, and 1 from Poltava transferring to Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning specifying several groups of "Shaheds" in Kyiv Oblast (Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, northern, western, and eastern parts of the oblast) and UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 from Chernihiv Oblast transferring to northern Kyiv Oblast and 1 from the Pryluky area перелетает (transferring) to Kyiv Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast (Rekodub, Volnoye Pole): Intense ground combat continues. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the tactics and outcomes of the operation. This confirms claimed Russian tactical gains in this area.
Cherkasy Oblast (northern part, near Kaniv): Affected by a large number of Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy drones over Cherkasy Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Cherkasy Oblast, including north of Cherkasy and towards Smila, and one transferring from Poltava. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone northern of Kaniv, course western.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of "Shaheds" in northern Vinnytsia heading north. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Vinnytsia Oblast, with 3 drones in the northern part.
Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports drone groups in northern and southern Poltava heading west. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Poltava Oblast, with 3 drones in the northern part flying towards Kyiv Oblast, and one transferring to Cherkasy Oblast. He also reports three drones flew past Lebedyn into Poltava Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк's latest update reports 1 drone from Poltava Oblast transferring to Kyiv Oblast.
Sumy Oblast (Konotop, Pryluky area): Affected by Russian drones and also a location for Russian information operations. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports drone groups in northern and western Sumy heading west. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, which borders Sumy Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one new drone from Sumy Oblast flying towards Konotop. He also reports one new drone from Sumy Oblast flying in the direction of Pryluky. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of drones through Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone west of Sumy moving west.
Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn, Pryluky, southern and eastern parts): Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone group south of Chernihiv heading towards the city and a group in southern Chernihiv heading southwest. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Chernihiv Oblast, including near Pryluky and Nizhyn. His latest update reports 1 drone over Nizhyn, 4 in the Pryluky area, 1 from Chernihiv Oblast transferring to northern Kyiv Oblast, and 1 north of Chernihiv. He also reports 1 from Chernihiv Oblast transferring to northern Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of drones through Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, and several groups in southern and eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones underfitting Чернигов - Прилуки.
Zhytomyr Oblast (eastern part, intersection with Kyiv Oblast): Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone group in eastern Zhytomyr heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Zhytomyr Oblast, with 4 drones at the intersection with Kyiv Oblast. He also reports 1 drone at the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv Oblasts.
Kursk Oblast (Sudzha): Location for Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian "atrocities." Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area.
Moscow (Russia): Location of a high-profile arrest and legal proceedings. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow. Also, a legal case against Morgenstern was closed in Moscow. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern. ТАСС also reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is requesting to extend the arrest of the founder of "Rusagro" Moshkovich and the former general director of the company Basov until the end of summer.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert concluded. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.
Voronezh (Russia): Location of an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on this incident.
Kharkiv Oblast (Dvurechensky bridgehead): Russian forces claim to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline in this area.
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Location of reported criminal cases. Полиция Хабаровского края releases a weekly summary of criminal cases.
Boyarka (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone under Boyarka, flying towards Kyiv.
Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 drones in the Fastiv area. His latest update reports 2 drones in the Fastiv area. His latest update further reports 1 drone west and 1 east of Bila Tserkva heading towards Fastiv.
Bilotserkivskyi district (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 drones in Bilotserkivskyi district. His latest update reports 1 drone west and 1 east of Bila Tserkva heading towards Fastiv.
Boryspil (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone approaching Boryspil. His latest update reports 1 drone approaching Boryspil.
Rekodub (Donetsk Oblast): ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement.
Volnoye Pole (DNR): Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR. MoD Russia and Воин DV also claim the liberation of Volnoye Pole.
Ukrainka (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone northern of Ukrainka, flying towards Vasylkiv.
Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone northern of Kaniv, course western.
New York (USA): Location of a maritime incident involving a vessel colliding with the Brooklyn Bridge. ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and ТАСС report on this incident, with TASS identifying the vessel as a Mexican Navy sailing vessel.
Israel: Allegedly targeted by ballistic missiles from Houthi forces. РБК-Україна reports on this.
Yemen (Houthis): Allegedly launched ballistic missiles against Israel. РБК-Україна reports on this.
Obukhivskyi district (Kyiv Oblast): РБК-Україна reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district as a result of the Russian attack.
Makariv (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 drone курсом на/через (heading towards/through) Makariv.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread, with a large-scale attack ongoing across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, particularly targeting Kyiv and surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking and engaging numerous drone groups directly over and around Kyiv, with explosions reported in the city. Tragically, the ongoing drone attack has resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast, including a fire at a feed mill. Russian forces are also using drones in ground combat operations, including strike UAVs for targeted strikes, as evidenced by the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole. Russia claims downing of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory (previously reported). Russia also claims the destruction of Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones and that air defense work continues on enemy aerial targets in Kyiv and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv, and the continuation of air defense work in Kyiv and reports explosions in Kyiv and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district as a result of the drone attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. They provide detailed information on drone groups across multiple oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts, including 12 drones still near Vasylkiv, later specifying a reduction to 6 but with new groups arriving, resulting in 9 still heading towards or through Vasylkiv. His latest updates provide a detailed breakdown of drone locations and numbers across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts, including 1 under Boyarka, 8 near Vasylkiv, 5 in the Fastiv area, 4 in Bilotserkivskyi district, 1 approaching Boryspil, 1 northern of Vasylkiv, 1 northern of Ukrainka flying towards Vasylkiv, 2 in the Fastiv area, and 1 at the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv Oblasts, 1 northern of Kaniv heading west, 1 from Chernihiv Oblast transferring to northern Kyiv Oblast, 1 from the Pryluky area transferring to Kyiv Oblast, and 1 from Sumy Oblast flying towards Pryluky. His latest updates further detail drone movements, including 1 through Boyarka towards Kyiv, 1 approaching Vasylkiv, 1 each west and east of Bila Tserkva towards Fastiv, 1 towards or through Makariv, and 1 from Poltava transferring to Kyiv Oblast, and notes anti-drone work near Vasylkiv. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, likely utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation and hinting at drone involvement. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the use of strike UAVs for targeted strikes. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning specifying several groups of "Shaheds" in Kyiv Oblast (Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, northern, western, and eastern parts of the oblast) and southern and eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering the large-scale Russian drone attack, with successful engagements reported directly over Kyiv and in Kyiv Oblast, and explosions heard in Kyiv. Tragically, despite air defense efforts, the attack resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast. Anti-drone work continues near Vasylkiv. Russia claims downing of Ukrainian drones and destruction of drone control points. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones and that air defense work continues on enemy aerial targets in Kyiv and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv, and the continuation of air defense work in Kyiv and reports explosions in Kyiv and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district as a result of the drone attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, where air defense would have been a factor. Николаевский Ванёк reports that anti-drone work continues near Vasylkiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning about the ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying 34 Ukrainian drone control points.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the use of artillery support.
Aviation Activity: Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast. This indicates Russian aviation activity in border regions.
Ballistic Missile Activity: Alleged use of ballistic missiles by Houthi forces against Israel. РБК-Україна reports on this, including Israeli air defense interception.
Naval Activity: A non-military maritime incident involving a vessel colliding with the Brooklyn Bridge in New York is reported. ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and ТАСС report on this, with TASS identifying the vessel as a Mexican Navy sailing vessel.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, with Russia preparing a document outlining its requirements for a ceasefire and the US linking progress to potential sanctions. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which occur against the backdrop of diplomatic discussions.
International Pressure: The US is linking progress in negotiations to potential further sanctions against Russia.
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings and incidents of vandalism are ongoing. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. Also, a legal case against Morgenstern was closed in Moscow. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh and the initiation of criminal cases. Полиция Хабаровского края releases a weekly summary of criminal cases, highlighting various reported crimes. ТАСС also reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is requesting to extend the arrest of the founder of "Rusagro" Moshkovich and the former general director of the company Basov until the end of summer. ТАСС reports that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated regarding ceasefire conditions. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which occur against the backdrop of diplomatic discussions.
Eurovision 2025: The winner of the Eurovision 2025 contest has been announced. ТАСС and ASTRA report the outcome of the Eurovision contest.
International Incidents: A maritime incident in New York is reported. ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and ТАСС report on this, with TASS identifying the vessel as a Mexican Navy sailing vessel.
Middle East Tensions: Alleged Houthi ballistic missile attack on Israel reported. РБК-Україна reports on this.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Reports of explosions and a fire at a machine-testing station in Podolsk, Moscow region. Internal legal proceedings and incidents of vandalism are ongoing. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. Also, a legal case against Morgenstern was closed in Moscow. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh and the initiation of criminal cases. Полиция Хабаровского края releases a weekly summary of criminal cases, highlighting various reported crimes. ТАСС also reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is requesting to extend the arrest of the founder of "Rusagro" Moshkovich and the former general director of the company Basov until the end of summer. ТАСС reports that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing aviation, artillery, and drones, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Russia claims to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Tactical operations involving artillery support and strike UAVs are being highlighted. Russia also claims the destruction of Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline in this area. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the tactics used, including artillery support and strike UAVs. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points.
Casualties: Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a family was shot at in a car by Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast, resulting in deaths. These are unverified claims within a Russian information operation. The claimed capture of Volnoye Pole, while detailing tactics, does not provide specific casualty figures but implies combat losses on both sides. Tragically, the ongoing Russian drone attack has resulted in one fatality and three injuries in Obukhivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions, including through the promotion of alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources are also highlighting incidents of vandalism against memorials within Russia. The claimed capture of Volnoye Pole is being used to promote a narrative of Russian military success. Russia claims to have destroyed Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which serves as information operation. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," which is a clear and active information operation. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh, framing it as a negative act by a migrant. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, which serves as a strategic information operation highlighting Russian tactical success. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points.
Judicial System: Legal proceedings against individuals are reported. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. Also, a legal case against Morgenstern was closed in Moscow. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the initiation of criminal cases related to the vandalism of a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh. Полиция Хабаровского края releases a weekly summary of criminal cases, highlighting reported legal actions. ТАСС also reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is requesting to extend the arrest of the founder of "Rusagro" Moshkovich and the former general director of the company Basov until the end of summer.
Kursk Oblast (Sudzha): Location for Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian "atrocities." Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area.
Voronezh (Russia): Location of an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial and the initiation of criminal cases. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on this incident.
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Location of reported criminal cases. Полиция Хабаровского края releases a weekly summary of criminal cases.
Moscow (Russia): Reports of explosions and a fire at a machine-testing station in Podolsk, Moscow region. ТАСС also reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is requesting to extend the arrest of the founder of "Rusagro" Moshkovich and the former general director of the company Basov until the end of summer.
Consumer Goods Standards: ТАСС reports that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing aviation, artillery, and drones, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Russia claims to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Tactical operations involving artillery support and strike UAVs are being highlighted. Russia claims the destruction of Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline in this area. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the tactics used, including artillery support and strike UAVs. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points.
Civilian Support (Russia): Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces against civilians, potentially aimed at garnering support for the Russian military.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, indicating ongoing military operations and support for personnel engaged in combat.
Ukrainian Support (Fundraising): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a poetry festival in Zaporizhzhia that included a charitable collection for purchasing a vehicle for reconnaissance units. This highlights civilian support for the Ukrainian military and specific fundraising efforts.
Humanitarian Impact of Russian Attacks: Tragically, the ongoing Russian drone attack has resulted in one fatality and three injuries in Obukhivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast, with damage to civilian property and infrastructure. A fire also occurred at a feed mill in Fastivskyi district. РБК-Україна reports these casualties and damage.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, including over Kyiv, with explosions heard in the city. Despite air defense efforts, the ongoing drone attack has resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast. Reports of Ukrainian "atrocities" and military equipment use in Kursk Oblast are part of Russian information operations and should be viewed critically. Ukrainian forces are also active in border regions, with reported aviation and MLRS activity according to Russian sources. Ukraine is also engaged in fundraising efforts to support its military. Ukraine is reportedly suffering losses in drone control capabilities according to Russian sources. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністраці я) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones and that air defense work continues on enemy aerial targets in Kyiv and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv, and the continuation of air defense work in Kyiv and reports explosions in Kyiv and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district as a result of the drone attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. They provide detailed information on drone groups across multiple oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts, including near Vasylkiv, noting a reduction in the initial group but continued presence with new groups arriving. His latest updates provide a detailed breakdown of drone locations and numbers across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts and notes anti-drone work near Vasylkiv. His latest updates further detail drone movements across Kyiv Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces with a "Grad" MLRS installation. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline stabilization and potential for advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning specifying several groups of "Shaheds" in Kyiv Oblast, southern and eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying 34 Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a poetry festival in Zaporizhzhia with a charitable collection for reconnaissance units.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes, and utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones, across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Utilizing artillery and potentially MLRS and aviation in border regions. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda, including promoting a narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities" and highlighting internal incidents. Russia claims to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia is employing strike UAVs and artillery support in tactical operations, as evidenced by the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole. Russia claims the destruction of Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. Tragically, the ongoing Russian drone attack has resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast, including a fire at a feed mill. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district as a result of the drone attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack across numerous oblasts, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts and providing detailed information on drone groups across multiple oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts, including near Vasylkiv, noting a reduction in the initial group but continued presence with new groups arriving. His latest updates provide a detailed breakdown of drone locations and numbers across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts and notes anti-drone work near Vasylkiv. His latest updates further detail drone movements across Kyiv Oblast. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces with a "Grad" MLRS installation and destruction of the installation by a Russian aircraft. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on an incident of vandalism against a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline stabilization and potential for advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the tactics used, including artillery support and strike UAVs. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning specifying several groups of "Shaheds" in Kyiv Oblast, southern and eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points. ТАСС reports that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients.
Third-Party Involvement: The outcome of the Eurovision contest is reported, involving multiple countries. A maritime incident in New York is reported, involving a pleasure boat or Mexican Navy vessel. Alleged Houthi ballistic missile attack on Israel is reported. ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and ТАСС report on the maritime incident in New York, with TASS identifying the vessel as a Mexican Navy sailing vessel. РБК-Україна reports on the alleged Houthi ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides, with Russia launching a large-scale strike. Russian forces are using artillery, and potentially MLRS ("Grad") and aviation in border regions. Russian forces are also claiming to be systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using MLRS ("Grad") in border regions according to Russian sources. Russia claims to have stabilized the frontline and created conditions for further advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces are employing strike UAVs and artillery support in tactical operations, as evidenced by the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole. Russia claims the destruction of Ukrainian drone control points and a Starlink station. Alleged use of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Tragically, the ongoing Russian drone attack, likely involving "Shaheds," has resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense against incoming drones and that the enemy UAV attack on the outskirts of Kyiv continues and the threat to the capital remains. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy strike UAVs over numerous oblasts, including "Shaheds." Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts, including near Vasylkiv, noting a reduction in the initial group but continued presence with new groups arriving. His latest updates provide a detailed breakdown of drone locations and numbers across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts and notes anti-drone work near Vasylkiv. His latest updates further detail drone movements across Kyiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation and destruction of the installation by a Russian aircraft. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones and shares updated information regarding drone movement and the continuation of the attack. РБК-Україна also reports casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district as a result of the drone attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. ТАСС reports Russian claims regarding the frontline stabilization and potential for advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole in the DNR, detailing the use of artillery support and strike UAVs. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated warning specifying several groups of "Shaheds" in Kyiv Oblast, southern and eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading southwest. ТАСС reports Russian claims of destroying a Starlink station and 34 Ukrainian drone control points. РБК-Україна reports on alleged Houthi ballistic missile use.
Ukrainian Fundraising: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a poetry festival in Zaporizhzhia with a charitable collection for reconnaissance units.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The large-scale and widespread Russian drone attack across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, including Kyiv and Cherkasy, with active air defense operations and reported explosions over the capital, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued ability to launch extensive aerial assaults aimed at pressuring Ukrainian defenses, targeting infrastructure, and potentially impacting civilian morale across a broad geographical area. The detailed tracking of drone groups across multiple oblasts and the persistent presence of drones near Vasylkiv highlights the complexity of countering these attacks and underscores the ongoing need for robust and layered air defense systems across Ukraine. The reported explosions in Kyiv confirm the direct impact of this attack on the capital. The multi-directional nature of the attack, with drones approaching Kyiv from various directions, further complicates defense efforts and necessitates a comprehensive air defense strategy. Tragically, the attack has also resulted in casualties and damage in Kyiv Oblast, underscoring the strategic objective of inflicting harm and disruption beyond military targets. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Николаевский Ванёк all providing information on the scale and trajectories of this drone attack highlight its strategic importance, which is further emphasized by the report of casualties and damage in Obukhivskyi district and a fire in Fastivskyi district by РБК-Україна. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting the conclusion of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia provides a localized strategic update, indicating that the aerial threat is not uniform across the country at all times.
Russia's claim of systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds and achieving advances near Rekodub in Donetsk Oblast, along with the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole, is strategically significant as it contributes to the narrative of Russian military progress in a key area of intense ground combat. If verified, these claimed localized gains support Russia's broader objective of securing control over the Donbas region and can impact the operational situation on that front. The video footage and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole provide a strategic information operation aimed at showcasing Russian tactical effectiveness. ТАСС reporting on the claimed advances near Rekodub, citing Andrey Marochko, and Colonelcassad sharing video and commentary on the claimed capture of Volnoye Pole serve as strategic information operations.
The arrest of a high-profile individual like the former head of Binance CIS in Moscow on fraud charges and the reported request to extend the arrest of the founders of "Rusagro" are internal Russian legal and political developments. While not directly a military event, such occurrences can have indirect strategic implications related to perceived stability, rule of law, and potentially the business environment within Russia. ТАСС reporting on these arrests highlights their significance within the Russian domestic context.
Colonelcassad's promotion of a video and testimony claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast" is a clear and active Russian information operation with strategic objectives. By disseminating these unverified allegations of Ukrainian forces targeting civilians and using "Grad" MLRS in Russian border regions, Russia aims to:
- Portray Ukraine negatively and justify its military actions.
- Influence domestic and international perceptions of the conflict.
- Potentially prepare the information space for further Russian military actions in border areas.
- Counter narratives of Russian targeting of civilians in Ukraine by alleging similar actions by Ukrainian forces in Russia. This highlights the continued strategic importance of information warfare in shaping the conflict narrative. Colonelcassad's sharing of this video and text demonstrates a deliberate effort to promote this narrative.
The continuation of diplomatic discussions regarding potential peace negotiations, with Russia preparing ceasefire conditions and the US linking progress to potential sanctions, occurs against the backdrop of ongoing intense military activity. This strategic juxtaposition highlights the complex interplay between military actions on the ground and diplomatic efforts. The military reality significantly influences the leverage and positions of both sides in any negotiations. ТАСС reporting on Russian military actions near Rekodub provides a strategic context for the ongoing diplomatic discussions.
The closure of the legal case against Morgenstern in Russia is primarily an internal legal development. While potentially reflecting shifts in legal or political approaches to individuals deemed "foreign agents," its direct strategic military implications are likely minimal. ТАСС reporting on the closure of this case is primarily of domestic political and legal relevance.
The reported incident of a migrant vandalizing a Soviet war memorial in Voronezh, Russia, and the initiation of criminal cases, while a domestic incident, has strategic implications within the context of Russian identity, historical narratives, and potential social tensions related to immigration. This incident is likely to be utilized in Russian information operations to reinforce narratives of national unity, historical memory, and the perceived need for internal security. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reporting on this incident and the commentary accompanying it clearly demonstrate this strategic framing.
Russia's claim of stabilizing the frontline and creating conditions for further advances on the Dvurechensky bridgehead in Kharkiv Oblast is strategically significant as it suggests Russian operational objectives in this area extend beyond defense to potential future offensives. If verified, this would contribute to the broader strategic picture of Russian efforts to secure territory in northeastern Ukraine. ТАСС reporting on these claims, citing Andrey Marochko, serves as a strategic information operation.
The weekly summary of criminal cases in Khabarovsk Krai, while focused on domestic crime, provides insight into the internal situation within Russia. While not directly impacting military strategy, high crime rates or specific types of crime could reflect underlying social or economic issues that have broader strategic implications. Полиция Хабаровского края releasing this summary is a routine reporting activity.
The announcement of the Eurovision winner, while not a military or political event, is a cultural event that receives international attention and is included in the information stream.
The detailed breakdown of drone movements and concentrations across Kyiv and surrounding Oblasts provided by Николаевский Ванёк, combined with the updated warnings from the Ukrainian Air Force and KCMA, is strategically vital for allocating air defense resources and protecting critical infrastructure and population centers. The sustained threat to areas like Vasylkiv indicates the strategic importance Russia places on these locations, likely related to airbases or other military facilities. The tragic outcome of the attack in Obukhivskyi district underscores the strategic impact of these aerial assaults on civilian populations.
The alleged Houthi ballistic missile attack on Israel, while geographically distant from the conflict in Ukraine, is a strategically significant international event that highlights ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the potential for regional conflicts to escalate.
The maritime incident in New York, while a non-military event, garners international attention and is part of the broader global context, though its direct strategic implications for the conflict in Ukraine are minimal.
Russia's claim of destroying a Starlink station and multiple Ukrainian drone control points is strategically significant as it targets key elements of Ukrainian communication and drone operational capabilities. If successful, these strikes could degrade Ukraine's ability to command and control its forces and utilize drones effectively, which would have direct strategic consequences on the battlefield.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting on a poetry festival in Zaporizhzhia with a charitable collection for reconnaissance units is strategically important as it highlights the ongoing need for civilian support for the Ukrainian military and demonstrates a focus on enhancing specific capabilities like reconnaissance, which is crucial for battlefield awareness and effectiveness.
Tragically, the ongoing Russian drone attack has resulted in one fatality and three injuries in Obukhivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast, with damage to civilian property and infrastructure. A fire also occurred at a feed mill in Fastivskyi district. This has significant strategic implications for the humanitarian situation, civilian morale, and the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of air defense against such large-scale attacks. РБК-Україна reports these casualties and damage, bringing this to strategic prominence.
ТАСС reporting that Rosstandart is developing a set of state standards for baby food and its ingredients is an internal Russian domestic development. While seemingly minor, it reflects the government's focus on consumer goods regulation and can have indirect strategic implications related to public health and economic stability.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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