Sitrep 2025-05-18 00:04:19

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 18, 2025, 01:05 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains dominated by widespread and intense Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, as evidenced by persistent air raid alerts, particularly in Kyiv and surrounding areas. These attacks are being actively tracked and countered by the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense units, with air defense work reported directly over Kyiv. Simultaneously, diplomatic discussions regarding potential peace negotiations persist, with Russia preparing a document outlining its requirements for a ceasefire, and the United States linking progress in these negotiations to the potential for further US sanctions against Russia. Intense ground combat continues, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian sources continue information operations, including claims of tactical success in Donetsk Oblast and allegations of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. Internal Russian issues, such as legal proceedings, are also reported. New incoming information confirms the continued intensity and widespread nature of Russian drone attacks across a large area of Ukraine, providing detailed tracking information and reinforcing the ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly the US position linking negotiation progress to potential sanctions against Russia. Russian sources continue to report on various internal issues and propaganda efforts, including claims of tactical success in Donetsk Oblast and accusations of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. Non-military information regarding a European song contest has also been reported. The latest updates specifically highlight active air defense operations in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against a large number of incoming Russian drones, with detailed tracking of drone groups across multiple oblasts. Russian sources claim systematic destruction of Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, with Russian forces achieving advances north and south of the settlement. A high-profile arrest of a former Binance CIS head in Moscow on fraud charges is also reported. Russian sources are actively promoting a narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast through video and testimony.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Systematic Russian Destruction of Ukrainian Strongholds and Advances in Donetsk Oblast: ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Russian servicemen are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances to the north and south of the settlement. This indicates continued intense ground combat and claimed localized Russian tactical success in Donetsk Oblast.
Active Air Defense Operations Over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports that air defense is working in Kyiv Oblast, with operations heard on the outskirts of the capital, and that the threat to Kyiv remains as enemy drones change direction. РБК-Україна corroborates the report of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) subsequently reports that air defense forces are working to eliminate the threat directly in the sky over Kyiv. РБК-Україна corroborates the report of air defense working in Kyiv. This confirms active air defense engagements directly over and around the capital region against incoming Russian drones.
Large-Scale Russian Drone Attack and Detailed Tracking: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. They provide detailed information on drone groups, including those in northern Vinnytsia (heading north), northern and southern Poltava (heading west), northern and western Sumy (heading west), south of Chernihiv (heading towards the city), southern Chernihiv (heading southwest), and eastern Zhytomyr (heading towards Kyiv Oblast). Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts, including 3 in northern Vinnytsia, 4 at the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv, 6 near Fastiv, 14 towards/through Vasylkiv (with a warning of potential loudness), 6 towards/through Boryspil, 6 towards/through Pereyaslav, 3 north of Cherkasy, 6 in Bilotserkivskyi district, 2 north of Uman, 1 towards Smila, 1 transferring from Poltava to Cherkasy, 3 in northern Poltava (towards Kyiv), 5 near Pryluky, and 1 near Nizhyn. This provides a comprehensive picture of the scale and trajectories of the current widespread Russian drone attack. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones.
Arrest of Former Binance CIS Head in Moscow: ТАСС reports that Vladimir Smerkis, former head of Binance in the CIS and co-founder of the crypto game Blum, has been arrested in Moscow on fraud charges, according to law enforcement. This is an internal Russian legal development.
Russian Information Operation - Allegations of Ukrainian "Atrocities" in Kursk Oblast: Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast." The video includes testimony from a resident of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, alleging that Ukrainians shot at a family in a car, killed others, and that Ukrainians used a "Grad" MLRS installation near "Miratorg" to shell them, blaming it on Russian forces. The testimony also claims that after a Russian aircraft destroyed the installation, Ukrainians set fire to houses and blew up basements they occupied while retreating to destroy evidence. This is a clear and active Russian information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian forces negatively and blaming them for civilian casualties and destruction in Russian border regions.
Air Raid Alert Concluded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. This indicates a temporary abatement of the aerial threat in that specific region, though other areas remain under alert.
Legal Case Against Morgenstern Closed in Russia: ТАСС reports that the case against Morgenstern (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation) regarding the recovery of a 40,000 ruble fine has been closed. This is an internal Russian legal development.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Affected by widespread air raid alerts and active air defense operations against a large number of Russian drones. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Kyiv Oblast, including near Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Boryspil, Pereyaslav, and in Bilotserkivskyi district, noting threats near Vasylkiv.
Donetsk Oblast (Rekodub): Intense ground combat continues. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub and have made advances north and south of the settlement.
Cherkasy Oblast: Affected by a large number of Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy drones over Cherkasy Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Cherkasy Oblast, including north of Cherkasy and towards Smila, and one transferring from Poltava.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of "Shaheds" in northern Vinnytsia heading north. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Vinnytsia Oblast, with 3 drones in the northern part.
Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports drone groups in northern and southern Poltava heading west. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Poltava Oblast, with 3 drones in the northern part flying towards Kyiv Oblast, and one transferring to Cherkasy Oblast.
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian drones and also a location for Russian information operations. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports drone groups in northern and western Sumy heading west. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, which borders Sumy Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone group south of Chernihiv heading towards the city and a group in southern Chernihiv heading southwest. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Chernihiv Oblast, including near Pryluky and Nizhyn.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by Russian drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone group in eastern Zhytomyr heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides detailed drone tracking across Zhytomyr Oblast, with 4 drones at the intersection with Kyiv Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Sudzha): Location for Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian "atrocities." Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area.
Moscow (Russia): Location of a high-profile arrest. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow. Also, a legal case against Morgenstern was closed in Moscow. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert concluded. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread, with a large-scale attack ongoing across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, particularly targeting Kyiv and surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking and engaging numerous drone groups. Russian sources are also using drones in ground combat operations. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. They provide detailed information on drone groups across multiple oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, likely utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering the large-scale Russian drone attack, with successful engagements reported directly over Kyiv and in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation.
Aviation Activity: Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast. This indicates Russian aviation activity in border regions.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, with Russia preparing a document outlining its requirements for a ceasefire and the US linking progress to potential sanctions. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which occur against the backdrop of diplomatic discussions.
International Pressure: The US is linking progress in negotiations to potential further sanctions against Russia.
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings continue. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated regarding ceasefire conditions. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which occur against the backdrop of diplomatic discussions.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings are ongoing. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim systematic destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and advances in Donetsk Oblast. Russian aviation is active in border regions. Russian forces are utilizing drones in ground combat. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions, including through the promotion of alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which serves as information operation. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," which is a clear and active information operation.
Casualties: Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a family was shot at in a car by Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast, resulting in deaths. These are unverified claims within a Russian information operation.
Judicial System: Legal proceedings against individuals are reported. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern.
Kursk Oblast (Sudzha): Location for Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian "atrocities" and civilian casualties. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing aviation, artillery, and drones, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming that a Russian aircraft destroyed a Ukrainian "Grad" MLRS installation in Kursk Oblast.
Civilian Support (Russia): Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces against civilians, potentially aimed at garnering support for the Russian military.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, indicating ongoing military operations and support for personnel engaged in combat.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, including over Kyiv. Reports of Ukrainian "atrocities" and military equipment use in Kursk Oblast are part of Russian information operations and should be viewed critically. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack across numerous oblasts, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces with a "Grad" MLRS installation. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes, and utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones, across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Utilizing artillery and potentially MLRS and aviation in border regions. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda, including promoting a narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities." ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack across numerous oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces with a "Grad" MLRS installation and destruction of the installation by a Russian aircraft. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides, with Russia launching a large-scale strike. Russian forces are using artillery, and potentially MLRS ("Grad") and aviation in border regions. Russian forces are also claiming to be systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south of the settlement. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports active air defense against incoming drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy strike UAVs over numerous oblasts, including "Shaheds." Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation and destruction of the installation by a Russian aircraft. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The large-scale and widespread Russian drone attack across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, including Kyiv and Cherkasy, with active air defense operations over the capital, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued ability to launch extensive aerial assaults aimed at pressuring Ukrainian defenses, targeting infrastructure, and potentially impacting civilian morale across a broad geographical area. The detailed tracking of drone groups across multiple oblasts highlights the complexity of countering these attacks and underscores the ongoing need for robust and layered air defense systems across Ukraine. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Николаевский Ванёк all providing information on the scale and trajectories of this drone attack highlight its strategic importance. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting the conclusion of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia provides a localized strategic update, indicating that the aerial threat is not uniform across the country at all times.
Russia's claim of systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds and achieving advances near Rekodub in Donetsk Oblast is strategically significant as it contributes to the narrative of Russian military progress in a key area of intense ground combat. If verified, these claimed localized gains support Russia's broader objective of securing control over the Donbas region and can impact the operational situation on that front. ТАСС reporting on these claimed advances, citing Andrey Marochko, serves as a strategic information operation.
The arrest of a high-profile individual like the former head of Binance CIS in Moscow on fraud charges is an internal Russian legal and political development. While not directly a military event, such occurrences can have indirect strategic implications related to perceived stability, rule of law, and potentially the business environment within Russia. ТАСС reporting on this arrest highlights its significance within the Russian domestic context.
Colonelcassad's promotion of a video and testimony claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast" is a clear and active Russian information operation with strategic objectives. By disseminating these unverified allegations of Ukrainian forces targeting civilians and using "Grad" MLRS in Russian border regions, Russia aims to:
- Portray Ukraine negatively and justify its military actions.
- Influence domestic and international perceptions of the conflict.
- Potentially prepare the information space for further Russian military actions in border areas.
- Counter narratives of Russian targeting of civilians in Ukraine by alleging similar actions by Ukrainian forces in Russia. This highlights the continued strategic importance of information warfare in shaping the conflict narrative. Colonelcassad's sharing of this video and text demonstrates a deliberate effort to promote this narrative.
The continuation of diplomatic discussions regarding potential peace negotiations, with Russia preparing ceasefire conditions and the US linking progress to potential sanctions, occurs against the backdrop of ongoing intense military activity. This strategic juxtaposition highlights the complex interplay between military actions on the ground and diplomatic efforts. The military reality significantly influences the leverage and positions of both sides in any negotiations. ТАСС reporting on Russian military actions near Rekodub provides a strategic context for the ongoing diplomatic discussions.
The closure of the legal case against Morgenstern in Russia is primarily an internal legal development. While potentially reflecting shifts in legal or political approaches to individuals deemed "foreign agents," its direct strategic military implications are likely minimal. ТАСС reporting on the closure of this case is primarily of domestic political and legal relevance.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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