Sitrep 2025-05-17 10:11:00

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 17, 2025, 10:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat in key areas, particularly Donetsk and the Kursk border region, a large-scale Russian aerial offensive employing a significant number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic discussions that are intertwined with the military situation. The latest reports indicate a massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 62 Shahed and other UAVs, with the Ukrainian Air Force claiming the downing of 36 of these, while 6 drone simulators were reportedly lost without negative consequences. This widespread attack affected Sumy, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts. Russia claims to have intercepted 80 aircraft-type drones and 3 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russia also claims tactical gains, including the liberation of Alexandropol in the Donetsk People's Republic. Both sides report inflicting significant personnel losses on the other across various operational areas. Russia is highlighting its successes against Ukrainian military infrastructure, including ammunition and fuel depots, UAV storage sites, and a military airfield. Diplomatic efforts remain active, with a phone conversation between Putin and Tokayev discussing the Istanbul negotiations and Turkey's continued efforts for a resolution. Internal Russian issues include legislative initiatives to expedite housing for military personnel, a new simplified process for granting Russian citizenship to citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and reports on alleged internal criminal activity and investigations. Ukraine is focusing on documenting Russian military actions, including alleged war crimes, and continues to receive material and technical assistance from local authorities, as evidenced by a detailed report from Kryvyi Rih on support provided to various units. Efforts to evade military service continue, as highlighted by a report of an individual attempting to cross the border on a monowheel. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of former US President Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests.

Significant new updates from the latest messages include:

Large-Scale Russian Overnight Drone Attack: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ASTRA report that Russia launched 62 strike UAVs (Shahed and other types) and drone simulators overnight (starting May 16th at 23:50). 36 were shot down, and 6 simulators were lost without consequences. The attack affected Sumy, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts.
Ukrainian Claim of Shooting Down 36 Russian UAVs: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the successful downing of 36 enemy UAVs by 12:00 PM on May 17th.
Russian Claim of Downed Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs: ТАСС, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reports that Russian air defense systems shot down 80 aircraft-type drones and 3 JDAM guided bombs over the past day.
Russian Claim of Liberating Alexandropol (DNR): ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, and Kotsnews report the official claim by the Russian Ministry of Defense that units of the "Center" group of forces have liberated the settlement of Alexandropol in the Donetsk People's Republic. Kotsnews notes its location and strategic importance for disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
Russian Claim of Significant Ukrainian Personnel Losses: ТАСС, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, provides a detailed breakdown of claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various operational groups ("North," "West," "South," "Center," "East," "Dnepr"), totaling up to 1,345 personnel over the past day.
Russian Claims of Striking Ukrainian Military Infrastructure: ТАСС and Colonelcassad, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, report that Russian forces struck ammunition and fuel depots, UAV storage sites, objects of a military airfield, and temporary deployment points for Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 143 areas over the past day.
Local Ukrainian Support for Military in Kryvyi Rih: Олександр Вілкул provides a detailed report on the material and technical assistance provided by Kryvyi Rih to various military units and services (including the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade "Azov," 129th Territorial Defense Brigade, Air Defense and Aviation, SBU, State Emergency Service, Police) in April, totaling over 70 million UAH, with over 2 billion UAH provided since the start of the war. The report lists various items provided, including vehicles, drones (BAK, quadcopters, FPV), EW systems, optics, uniforms, weapons, radios, generators, and building materials.
Putin Discusses Istanbul Negotiations with Tokayev: ТАСС reports that Vladimir Putin discussed the results of the direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held in Istanbul during a phone call with the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian Legislative Initiative for Military Housing: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense has prepared a draft law to accelerate the provision of housing for military personnel, particularly for those changing their elected place of residence from Moscow or St. Petersburg to other locations with available housing.
Putin Signs Decree on Simplified Russian Citizenship for Abkhazia and South Ossetia Citizens: ТАСС reports that Vladimir Putin signed a decree simplifying the process for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to obtain Russian citizenship.
Turkey's Position on Conflict Resolution: ТАСС reports that Turkish President Erdogan stated that the conflict in Ukraine cannot be resolved militarily and that Turkey will continue its efforts for a settlement, noting that the Istanbul negotiations were planned as a step towards peace.
Attempt to Evade Military Service on Monowheel: Оперативний ЗСУ and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and РБК-Україна report that a man attempting to cross the border into Slovakia on a monowheel near Uzhhorod was detained by Ukrainian border guards.
Concerns Raised about Potential Trump-Putin Meeting and Lack of Mediator for Ukraine: Colonelcassad shares a report from The Telegraph highlighting concerns among Ukrainian officials regarding a potential meeting between Trump and Putin, fearing that Putin would have Trump's undivided attention without a mediator for Ukrainian interests and that Trump might agree to a deal unfavorable to Ukraine. The report also suggests this meeting would be a "new humiliation" for European leaders. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also reports on this, linking the former US Ambassador to Ukraine's resignation to disagreements with potential shifts in US policy under Trump.
Russian Warning of Potential Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) Threat near Novorossiysk: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 warns of a potential threat of enemy USVs near Novorossiysk.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Destruction of Ukrainian UAVs over Bogatyr: Воин DV shares a video claiming that "Far Eastern warriors" continue to destroy "flying evil" (likely drones) over Bogatyr.
Russian Military Blogger Claims "Geran" Strike on Ukrainian Staging Area in Sumy Oblast: Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition share a video and commentary claiming that "Geran-2" kamikaze drones struck a vehicle parking point of the Ukrainian 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade near Velikaya Chernetchina in Sumy Oblast. They claim increased accuracy and potential use of a modified drone with operator control. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition links this to previous encounters with the 82nd Brigade in the Kursk border region and claims substantial losses in material and personnel for the enemy.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Video of Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Civilians in Belgorod Oblast: Два майора shares a video claiming it shows the moment of a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in the village of Borisovka, Borisovsky district, Belgorod Oblast, yesterday, resulting in an injury. They claim the video proves Ukrainian terrorism as the drone operator could see the civilian target.
Reported Incident Involving Iskander Developer's Death: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the death of Vladimir Nedoshivin, one of the developers of the Iskander missile, due to a domestic dispute with his neighbor in Kolomna, Russia.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Strike on Ukrainian Temporary Deployment Point in Otradnoye: Воин DV shares a video claiming that soldiers from Buryatia of the 36th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" group struck a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Otradnoye.
Ukrainian General Staff Conducts Survey on Financial Literacy for Military and Veterans: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ is conducting an anonymous survey on financial literacy for military personnel, veterans, and their families in collaboration with the National Bank of Ukraine.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Alexandropol, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Novaya Poltavka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims the liberation of Alexandropol. Воин DV claims Russian forces continue to destroy Ukrainian UAVs over Bogatyr and struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Otradnoye. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Novaya Poltavka by FPV drones. Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA)
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia area, Velikaya Chernetchina): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including the tragic bus attack near Bilopillia and claimed "Geran" strikes on military facilities. Russia claims "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area near Velikaya Chernetchina, attributing significant losses to the enemy. Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Kharkiv Oblast: Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA)
Odesa Oblast: Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding the city) issued due to air activity. Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino area, Borisovka, Borisovsky district): Affected by Ukrainian cross-border attacks and claimed Russian defensive actions. A Russian military blogger questions the purpose of persistent Ukrainian attacks in the Tetkino area. Два майора shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Borisovka. (Colonelcassad, Два майора)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Borisovka, Borisovsky district): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Два майора shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Borisovka resulting in an injury. (Два майора)
Crimea: Russia claims increased defense capabilities in Crimea and the impossibility of a Ukrainian ground operation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the destruction of one Ukrainian UAV over Crimea. (ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Black Sea (Novorossiysk area): Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) warned. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 warns of potential enemy USVs near Novorossiysk. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kolomna (Russia): Location of the incident involving the death of an Iskander missile developer due to a domestic dispute. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Uzhhorod area: Location where an individual attempting to cross the border into Slovakia on a monowheel was detained. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert issued in communities except for Zaporizhzhia city due to air activity. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread Russian drone activity overnight, with 62 launched and 36 claimed downed. Affected Sumy, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts. Russia claims downing 80 aircraft-type Ukrainian drones over the past day and destroying Ukrainian UAVs over Bogatyr and Crimea. Russia claims successful "Geran" strikes on Ukrainian staging areas and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian infantry. Ukrainian border guards used a camera trap to detect an individual attempting to cross the border on a monowheel, highlighting the use of technology for surveillance. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ASTRA report a large-scale Russian overnight drone attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports downing 36 Russian UAVs. ТАСС, citing Russian MoD, reports downing 80 Ukrainian drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports destroying one Ukrainian UAV over Crimea. Воин DV claims destroying Ukrainian UAVs over Bogatyr. Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim "Geran" strike on Ukrainian staging area in Sumy. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 warns of potential enemy USVs near Novorossiysk. Два майора shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Belgorod Oblast. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Novaya Poltavka by FPV drones. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russia claims downing 3 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. (ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Active Russian tactical aviation on eastern, southeastern, and northeastern directions with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket over the past day. (ТАСС)
Naval Activity: Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) near Novorossiysk warned. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense actively engaged against the large-scale Russian drone attack, claiming 36 downed. Russia claims downing 80 Ukrainian drones and other aerial weapons. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery and MLRS use. Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket. (ТАСС)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Ukrainian air defense efforts included the use of EW. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Putin discussed the Istanbul negotiations with Tokayev. Erdogan stated the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and Turkey will continue efforts for a settlement. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russia-Kazakhstan Relations: Putin's phone call with Tokayev to discuss the Istanbul negotiations. (ТАСС)
Russia-Turkey Relations: Erdogan's statement on the impossibility of a military solution and Turkey's continued efforts for a settlement, including the role of the Istanbul negotiations. (ТАСС)
Russia-United States Relations: Concerns raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia Relations: Putin signed a decree simplifying Russian citizenship for citizens of these regions. (ТАСС)
Support for Ukraine from Local Authorities: Detailed report from Kryvyi Rih on significant material and technical assistance provided to various military units and services. (Олександр Вілкул)
Internal Russian Politics: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Simplified Russian citizenship for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Report on a domestic dispute involving an Iskander missile developer. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Humanitarian Issues: Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel highlights the impact of the conflict and mobilization on individuals. Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Military Personnel Support: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Citizenship Policy: Simplified process for granting Russian citizenship to citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (ТАСС)
Law Enforcement and Criminal Activity: Report on a domestic dispute resulting in the death of an Iskander missile developer. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Border Security: Dealing with Ukrainian cross-border attacks. (Colonelcassad, Два майора)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Claims of tactical gains and successful strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure. (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР)
Information Operations: Highlighting claimed military successes, alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians, and questioning Ukrainian military actions. (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Casualties: Claimed significant Ukrainian personnel losses (up to 1,345 over the past day). Injury claimed from a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Belgorod Oblast. Death of an Iskander missile developer in a domestic dispute. (ТАСС, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Infrastructure: Potential threat to infrastructure in the Novorossiysk area from USVs. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): Significant material and technical assistance provided by local authorities in Kryvyi Rih to various military units and services. (Олександр Вілкул)
Veteran Support (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Military Personnel Support (Russia): Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Launching large-scale drone attacks (62 UAVs overnight) across multiple oblasts. Utilizing KABs. Employing tactical aviation in frontline areas. Claiming tactical gains and successful strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure (ammunition/fuel depots, UAV storage, airfields, temporary deployment points). Claiming significant Ukrainian personnel losses. Facing Ukrainian cross-border attacks and potentially USV threats. Using FPV drones for targeting ammunition depots and reportedly against Ukrainian infantry. Utilizing air defense systems to counter Ukrainian drones and other aerial weapons. Russian military bloggers highlighting specific unit actions and successes. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Ukrainian Forces: Defending against large-scale Russian drone attacks and other aerial weapons, claiming 36 downed UAVs. Conducting cross-border attacks into Russia with drones and potentially other means. Utilizing surveillance technology (camera traps) for border security. Facing intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances in key areas. Experiencing casualties and infrastructure damage. Attempting to evade military service. Surveying financial literacy needs of military personnel and veterans. Receiving significant material and technical assistance from local authorities. Questioning the purpose of Ukrainian attacks in certain areas (from a Russian perspective). Attempting to cross the border on a monowheel highlights individual efforts to evade military service. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олександр Вілкул, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey continuing efforts for a settlement and playing a role in negotiations. Kazakhstan involved in discussions regarding the Istanbul talks. Concerns raised about the potential impact of former US President Trump's stance on negotiations. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The large-scale Russian overnight drone attack involving 62 UAVs across numerous oblasts demonstrates a continued strategic objective to pressure and degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure across a wide area, potentially aiming to overwhelm air defense systems. The reported impact across multiple oblasts highlights the breadth of this strategic effort.
The Ukrainian claim of downing 36 Russian UAVs out of 62 launched indicates a significant success for Ukrainian air defense and highlights their continued capability to mitigate the impact of such large-scale attacks, although a substantial number likely reached their targets or were lost without being intercepted.
Russia's claim of liberating Alexandropol in the Donetsk People's Republic is strategically significant as it contributes to the Russian narrative of steady territorial gains in the Donbas region and may have tactical implications for control of surrounding areas and logistical routes, as noted by Kotsnews.
The detailed report from Kryvyi Rih on the significant material and technical assistance provided to various military units and services underscores the crucial role of local authorities and public support in sustaining Ukrainian military capabilities, particularly in providing essential equipment and resources that complement national and international aid. This highlights a key strategic aspect of Ukrainian resilience.
The ongoing diplomatic discussions, including Putin's conversation with Tokayev regarding the Istanbul talks and Erdogan's statement on the impossibility of a military solution and Turkey's continued efforts for a settlement, highlight the continued strategic relevance of the diplomatic track, even amidst intense fighting. Erdogan's statement also reflects a specific strategic perspective on the nature of the conflict.
Concerns raised about a potential Trump-Putin meeting and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests are strategically significant due to the potential impact on international support for Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape. This highlights the strategic anxieties surrounding potential shifts in US foreign policy and the importance of maintaining a strong international coalition in support of Ukraine.
Russia's legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel has strategic implications for military morale, recruitment, and retention, addressing a potential internal issue that could impact the long-term sustainability of their armed forces. Similarly, the simplified citizenship process for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be a strategic move to strengthen ties and potentially increase the available pool of personnel for military or paramilitary formations.
Russia's claims of striking Ukrainian military infrastructure, including ammunition/fuel depots, UAV storage sites, airfields, and temporary deployment points, are strategically aimed at degrading Ukraine's ability to conduct military operations by disrupting their logistics, supply lines, and operational capacity.
The attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel, while seemingly a minor incident, is strategically relevant as it highlights the challenges and impacts of mobilization on the civilian population and the various attempts individuals may make to avoid service. It can also be used in information operations by both sides.
The Russian warning of potential uncrewed surface vessel (USV) threat near Novorossiysk is strategically significant as it indicates a potential shift in the maritime threat landscape and highlights the vulnerability of Russian naval and port infrastructure in the Black Sea to Ukrainian asymmetric attacks.
The death of the Iskander missile developer in a domestic dispute, while not directly related to military operations, could be exploited in information operations by both sides, either to highlight perceived societal issues within Russia or to downplay the strategic impact of the loss.
The Russian military blogger's claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Belgorod Oblast, accompanied by video evidence and framed as proof of Ukrainian terrorism, is a clear strategic information operation aimed at portraying Ukraine as a perpetrator of atrocities and garnering domestic and international condemnation.
The Russian military blogger claims of a "Geran" strike on a Ukrainian staging area in Sumy Oblast, with claims of increased accuracy and significant losses, are strategically aimed at highlighting Russian targeting effectiveness, particularly against Ukrainian military facilities in border regions, and demoralizing Ukrainian forces.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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