Sitrep 2025-05-17 05:41:24

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 17, 2025, 05:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat, a persistent and geographically widespread Russian aerial offensive employing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic efforts intertwined with conflicting military signals. The latest reporting confirms continued Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with specific trajectory details provided by the Ukrainian Air Force. This highlights a dynamic and extensive aerial threat. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts indicate sustained heavy bombardment in these key frontline and border regions. Intense ground fighting persists, notably in Donetsk Oblast and along the Kursk and Sumy border regions, with both sides claiming localized advances and inflicting casualties. A significant and tragic development is the Russian attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast, initially reported with eight fatalities and five injuries, now updated to nine fatalities and four injuries, underscoring the continued impact of the conflict on civilians in border areas. Russia claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight over Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, indicating ongoing Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory and Russian efforts to counter it. Diplomatic discussions regarding potential negotiations in Istanbul continue, though the observed military actions, such as claimed Russian advances and ongoing heavy fighting, create a complex and potentially contradictory backdrop. Internal Russian issues, including military personnel support, legal proceedings, and information operations, remain relevant. Concerns have been raised about the conduct of Russian military personnel in occupied territories, with new reports of accusations of sexual offenses against minors in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. The former US Ambassador to Ukraine has reportedly resigned due to disagreements with potential shifts in US policy towards Russia under a hypothetical Trump administration, highlighting potential future political dynamics.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Increased Fatalities in Sumy Bus Attack: Reports from the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and Оперативний ЗСУ now state that the direct Russian attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia has resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries, an increase in reported fatalities from the initial reports of 8 killed and 5 injured. This emphasizes the severity of the attack. The weapon is tentatively identified as a "Lancet" drone. РБК-Україна's later summary still incorrectly lists eight fatalities, highlighting discrepancies in reporting even within a short timeframe.
Updated Russian UAV Interception Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense, as reported by ТАСС and ASTRA, claims the destruction of two Ukrainian drones overnight – one over Belgorod Oblast and one over Rostov Oblast, and later specifies one over Kursk Oblast and one over Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of two Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. This update supersedes previous claims of a higher number of drones destroyed overnight across different regions, providing a more specific account for these border areas and Rostov Oblast.
Continued Russian Offensive Actions: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 combat engagements throughout the past day, with significant activity across multiple directions including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and Kursk. This provides a comprehensive overview of the intensity and widespread nature of Russian ground assaults. They also report Russian aviation strikes and extensive shelling. Сили оборони Півдня України report continued active artillery use and massive air strikes on the southern direction, including on the Novopavlivskyi (18 attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Bahatyr, Novosilky, Pryvilne, and Zelene Pole), Hulyaipilskyi (massive air strikes, reconnaissance, and preparatory measures), Orikhivskyi (2 attacks repelled near Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky), and Prydniprovskyi (regrouping, logistics, evacuation, and reconnaissance efforts to capture the island zone of the Dnipro) directions. Рыбарь reports on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction (liberation of Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka, pushing into northern outskirts, strengthening positions after closing the "pocket" from Myrolyubivka to Malynivka, weakening Ukrainian positions east of the agglomeration, threatening supplies along T-05-15 and the road to Pokrovsk), Novopavlivskyi direction (battles near Udachne, Novomykolaivka, Troitske, and Kotlyarivka, proximity to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, advances near Tartyanka gully, possible Ukrainian positions in Shyroka gully), and Andriivskyi direction (battles on the outskirts of Bahatyr, continued Ukrainian positions, clearing operations, Russian forces occupying a forest belt and blocking Bahatyr from the east near Otradne). DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," suggesting intense fighting in this area.
Russian Claim of Liberating Volnoye Pole: Two Mayors, citing Voin DV, report the liberation of Volnoye Pole by units of the "Vostok" group of forces on the South Donetsk direction, claiming control over a fortified defense area and the installation of Russian flags. This is a claim of a localized Russian tactical advance.
Continued Russian Drone Activity and Ukrainian Countermeasures: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian airborne forces downing a Ukrainian "Furia" drone and destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point near Chasiv Yar. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones (Molniya-2, Zala Z-16, Supercam S350, Orlan-10). STERNENKO emphasizes the importance of downing Russian drones, linking it directly to saving lives, and highlights that the recent attack on the bus was likely with a Lancet that was not intercepted. Рыбарь requests financial support, mentioning the effectiveness of their GIS service and reports, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. Сили оборони Півдня України report that over the past day, Russian forces used more than six hundred kamikaze drones of various modifications and carried out almost 275 drops from UAVs, using almost 400 munitions. They also report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force provides real-time updates on the movement of Russian strike UAVs, with a group from near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast heading southwest, a group from near Trostyanets in Sumy Oblast heading west, and another group heading west in Sumy Oblast. Later updates track drone movements in Kyiv (near Bila Tserkva heading towards Vinnytsia), Dnipropetrovsk (heading towards Shakhtarske), and Kharkiv (near Zolochiv heading towards Kharkiv). ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones.
Confirmation of Civilian Impact in Donetsk: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video highlighting the destruction in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, emphasizing the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian areas. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," which also underscores the human cost of the fighting. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports that 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were affected by enemy strikes over the past day, resulting in one fatality (a 55-year-old woman in Kupiansk) and injuries to multiple civilians (six men in Kupiansk, three individuals in Kutkivka). He details the types of weapons used, including 12 unguided aviation rockets, 4 KABs, 3 unspecified UAVs, 1 Lancet, 7 Geran-2 UAVs, 1 Molniya UAV, and 2 FPV drones. He also reports damage to civilian infrastructure, including administrative buildings, a municipal enterprise building, a service vehicle, 8 private houses, gas and power lines, a shop in Kupiansk district, two private houses, a garage, and outbuildings in Izium district, and a fence and a special vehicle in Chuhuiv district.
Russian Military Propaganda and Commemoration: Басурин о главном shares information and photos commemorating the opening of a monument to A.V. Suvorov in Saint Petersburg in 1801, framing it within a narrative of Russian military prowess and invincibility. Colonelcassad shares a video about Sergeant Victoria Galanova, a logistics assistant from the LPR serving in the Russian Army, presenting a personal narrative of motivation and confidence in Russian victory. Полиция Хабаровского края shares a video providing cybercrime prevention advice, including not sharing sensitive information, which while not directly military, reflects a domestic security concern. Рыбарь requests financial support, mentioning the effectiveness of their GIS service and reports, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia.
US Stance on Negotiations and Sanctions: ТАСС reports that American legislators have intensified calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow following the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, according to Reuters. Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump calling Zelenskyy an "excellent salesman" and expressing frustration about where money for Ukraine has gone, also stating Trump refused to call Putin an obstacle to peace. Trump also reportedly believes Putin is "tired" of the war. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, resigned because she believed Trump was "abetting" Russia and could no longer "conscientiously pursue the administration's policy," urging America to "show leadership in the face of aggression, not weakness or complicity." The report also notes that Brink faced criticism in Kyiv for the slow pace of US arms deliveries and insistence on anti-corruption reforms.
Russian Strategic View of Negotiations: Коцnews outlines five purported demands of Russia for negotiations, framing them as "negotiations from a position of strength." These include Ukraine not claiming five regions (DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea), Ukraine's neutrality, mutual refusal of reparations, protection of Russian speakers' rights, and immediate ceasefire with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the administrative borders of the claimed regions. The author speculates on the exclusion of Sumy and Kharkiv from these demands as potential areas for compromise.
Accusations of Sexual Offenses by Russian Military Personnel: ASTRA reports that another Russian serviceman, Vladislav Zolot (23), is being sought in Kadiivka (Krasnodon), Luhansk Oblast, following a complaint from the mother of a ninth-grader from Volgograd Oblast who alleges sexual contact. ASTRA notes that the mother believes his actions fall under Article 134 of the Russian Criminal Code (sexual relations with a person under 16), but a criminal case has not been initiated. ASTRA also references a previous case on May 8th in Donetsk where a 28-year-old serviceman, Khojageldy Chopanov, is accused of drugging and raping a minor; his detention status is unknown.
Escalation of Strikes on Luhansk Oblast: ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Ukrainian forces have increased the intensity of strikes on the territory of the "LNR" (Luhansk People's Republic) amidst direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.
Israeli Operations in Gaza: РБК-Україна reports that Israel has begun the initial stages of a new large-scale operation, "Gideon's Chariot," in the Gaza Strip. This is a significant development in the Middle East conflict. Рыбарь also reports on the Middle East crisis, mentioning Israeli raids on the West Bank and a Houthi missile launch towards Ben Gurion airport, highlighting ongoing tensions and activity in the region.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novoolexandrivka, Stara Mykolayivka, Novooukrainka, Oleksiivka, Poltavka, Yablunivka, Nova Poltavka, Kostiantynopil, Shevchenko, Novoselivka, Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka, Kurdiumivka, Krymske, Dilivka, Katerynivka, Pleshchiivka, Novospaske, Ulyanovka/Malinivka, Horlivka, Volnoye Pole, Mykhailivka, Novomykolaivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Tartyanka gully, Shyroka gully, Otradne, Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya, Makiivka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 73 combat engagements throughout the past day, with significant activity and numerous repelled assaults on the Pokrovsk (52 assaults), Novopavlivsk (18 attacks), Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kramatorsk (2 clashes), and Toretsk (19 attacks) directions. Russian aviation continues to conduct strikes with guided and unguided aerial bombs, including in areas like Pokrovsk, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Shevchenko Pershe, Stara Mykolaivka, Sukhyi Yar, Novooukrainka, and Dachne. Two Mayors, citing Voin DV, report the liberation of Volnoye Pole by units of the "Vostok" group of forces on the South Donetsk direction, claiming control over a fortified defense area. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video highlighting the destruction in Toretsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian airborne forces actions near Chasiv Yar, including downing a Ukrainian drone and destroying a UAV control point. Коцnews outlines alleged Russian demands including Ukraine not claiming DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea. Сили оборони Півдня України report 18 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivskyi direction near Kostiantynopil, Bahatyr, Novosilky, Pryvilne, and Zelene Pole. Рыбарь reports on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction (liberation of Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka, pushing into northern outskirts, strengthening positions after closing the "pocket" from Myrolyubivka to Malynivka, weakening Ukrainian positions east of the agglomeration, threatening supplies along T-05-15 and the road to Pokrovsk), Novopavlivskyi direction (battles near Udachne, Novomykolaivka, Troitske, and Kotlyarivka), and Andriivskyi direction (battles on the outskirts of Bahatyr). DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr." ASTRA reports a previous case of alleged sexual assault by a Russian serviceman in Donetsk. Рыбарь reports a woman injured in Horlivka due to artillery fire and a teenage girl injured in Makiivka due to a kamikaze drone attack. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Сливочный каприз, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Коцnews, Два майора, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, DeepState, ASTRA)
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia, Dmytrivka, Studenok, Myropilske, Chuikivka, Oleksandrivka, Trostyanets, Sumy community): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. The Russian attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia has resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries. The Ukrainian General Staff reports communities in Sumy Oblast were affected by enemy artillery and mortar fire, and aviation strikes occurred in areas including Dmytrivka, Studenok, Myropilske, Chuikivka, and Oleksandrivka. Povitryani Syly ZSU reports launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and tracks drone movements from Sumy Oblast towards the southwest and west. STERNENKO tentatively identifies the weapon used in the bus attack as a "Lancet" drone and emphasizes the importance of downing such drones. Коцnews's purported Russian demands do not include Sumy Oblast, which the author speculates could be an area for compromise. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a massive Russian drone attack on a village in Sumy community overnight, involving about 10 strike UAVs, causing a fire and damage to civilian infrastructure. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Коцnews, ТАСС)
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Russia claims to have destroyed one Ukrainian drone over Kursk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 13 combat engagements on the Kursk direction throughout the past day, with 20 aviation strikes (37 guided bombs) and 195 artillery shellings (11 from MLRS). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a Ukrainian UAV over Kursk Oblast overnight. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russia claims to have destroyed one Ukrainian drone over Belgorod Oblast overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of a Ukrainian UAV over Belgorod Oblast overnight. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Stroyivka, Kamianka, Tymofiivka, Khatnie, Kreidianka, Kupiansk, Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, Zagryzove, Zolochiv): Affected by Russian military activity. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 5 Russian assaults repelled on the Kharkiv direction (in the areas of Vovchansk, Stroyivka, and Kamianka) and 4 attacks repelled on the Kupiansk direction (towards Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, and near Zagryzove). Russian aviation strikes also occurred in areas including Tymofiivka, Khatnie, and Kreidianka. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine track drone movements towards Kharkiv. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports that 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were affected by enemy strikes over the past day, resulting in one fatality and multiple injuries, and damage to civilian infrastructure. He details the types of weapons used, including aviation rockets, KABs, and various drones. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Marhanets community, Nikopol, Synelnykivskyi district, Mezhivska community, Shakhtarske): Affected by Russian drone attacks, particularly FPV drones. Serhii Lysak reports Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district twice yesterday evening with FPV drones and also targeted Nikopol with a drone this morning. While no casualties are reported in these specific attacks, the repeated use of FPV drones indicates ongoing Russian pressure on civilian areas and infrastructure in this region. Сили оборони Півдня України report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force tracks drone movements towards Shakhtarske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kherson Oblast (Russia controlled territory): Коцnews outlines alleged Russian demands including Ukraine not claiming Kherson Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Kherson Oblast and that Russian forces are conducting regrouping, logistics, evacuation, and reconnaissance measures to continue attempts to capture the island zone of the Dnipro in the Prydniprovskyi direction. (Коцnews, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Malynivka, Vysokyy, Hulyaipole, Novodarivka, Lukianivske, Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya): Affected by Russian military activity. The Ukrainian General Staff reports no combat engagements on the Hulyaipilske direction throughout the past day, but aviation strikes occurred in areas including Malynivka, Vysokyy, Hulyaipole, Novodarivka, and Lukianivske. On the Orikhiv direction, they report two Russian assaults repelled near Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky. Коцnews outlines alleged Russian demands including Ukraine not claiming Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and that on the Orikhivskyi direction, our defenders successfully repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky. Рыбарь reports a drone attack on the administration building in Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya, injuring two employees, and at least 8 artillery shellings on the city. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Коцnews, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь)
Turkey (Istanbul, Antalya): Continues to be the location for diplomatic negotiations, with reports of ongoing discussions and uncertainty regarding the start time and level of participation. STERNENKO reports that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha met with US State Department officials Marco Rubio and Senator Lindsey Graham in Antalya to convey Zelenskyy's vision for peace efforts and coordinate positions. (ТАСС, Коцnews, STERNENKO)
Crimea (Russia controlled territory): Коцnews outlines alleged Russian demands including Ukraine not claiming Crimea. (Коцnews)
Luhansk Oblast (Russia controlled territory) (Kadiivka/Krasnodon): ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Ukrainian forces have increased the intensity of strikes on the territory of the "LNR" amidst direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. ASTRA reports that another Russian serviceman is being sought in Kadiivka (Krasnodon), Luhansk Oblast, following a complaint of alleged sexual contact with a minor. (ТАСС, Коцnews, ASTRA)
Rostov Oblast (Russia): ASTRA reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down one Ukrainian drone over Rostov Oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Mykolaiv Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva): The Ukrainian Air Force tracks drone movements near Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Vinnytsia Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force tracks drone movements from near Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Gaza Strip: РБК-Україна reports that Israel has begun the initial stages of a new large-scale operation, "Gideon's Chariot," in the Gaza Strip. Рыбарь also reports on the Middle East crisis, mentioning Israeli raids on the West Bank. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
West Bank: Рыбарь reports Israeli raids on the West Bank. (Рыбарь)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ongoing and significant. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 2596 kamikaze drones were used by Russia throughout the past day, and Ukrainian forces neutralized 155 operational-tactical level UAVs. Сили оборони Півдня України report that over the past day, Russian forces used more than six hundred kamikaze drones of various modifications and carried out almost 275 drops from UAVs, using almost 400 munitions. They also report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and warnings of strikes, including specific tracking in Sumy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Russia claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight – one over Belgorod Oblast and one over Rostov Oblast, and later specifies one over Kursk Oblast and one over Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of two Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian airborne forces downing a Ukrainian "Furia" drone and destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point near Chasiv Yar. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones (Molniya-2, Zala Z-16, Supercam S350, Orlan-10). STERNENKO emphasizes the importance of downing Russian drones, linking it directly to saving lives, and highlights that the recent attack on the bus was likely with a Lancet that was not intercepted. Рыбарь requests financial support, mentioning the effectiveness of their GIS service and reports, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports the use of unspecified UAVs, Lancet, Geran-2, Molniya, and FPV drones in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Рыбарь reports a drone attack on the administration building in Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya, injuring two employees, and a teenage girl injured in Makiivka due to a kamikaze drone attack. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сливочный каприз, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 112 guided aerial bombs were dropped by Russia throughout the past day. Povitryani Syly ZSU reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 37 guided bombs were dropped on the Kursk direction throughout the past day. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports the use of 4 KABs in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Missile Activity: Russian forces continue to utilize missile strikes. The Ukrainian General Staff reports one missile was used by Russia throughout the past day. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports the use of 12 unguided aviation rockets in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Рыбарь reports a Houthi missile launch towards Ben Gurion airport in Israel. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Рыбарь)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes with guided and unguided aerial bombs. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 63 aviation strikes throughout the past day, including in areas like Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. They also report 20 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction throughout the past day. Сили оборони Півдня України report massive air strikes on the southern direction, including on the Hulyaipilskyi direction. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports the use of 12 unguided aviation rockets in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported. Сили оборони Півдня України report that in the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces are conducting regrouping, logistics, evacuation, and reconnaissance measures to continue attempts to capture the island zone of the Dnipro. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Air Defense Activity: Ukraine continues to engage Russian aerial threats, including drones and guided aerial bombs. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Ukrainian forces struck one enemy air defense asset and neutralized 155 operational-tactical level UAVs. Russia claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight – one over Belgorod Oblast and one over Rostov Oblast, and later specifies one over Kursk Oblast and one over Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of two Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian airborne forces downing a Ukrainian "Furia" drone and destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point near Chasiv Yar. РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones (Molniya-2, Zala Z-16, Supercam S350, Orlan-10). STERNENKO emphasizes the importance of downing Russian drones. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Heavy artillery shelling and MLRS fire continue on both sides, impacting frontline areas and civilian settlements. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 5653 shellings were conducted by Russia throughout the past day, including 135 from MLRS. They also report 195 artillery shellings on the Kursk direction throughout the past day, including 11 from MLRS. Сили оборони Півдня України report 317 enemy shellings using almost 1350 munitions and more than four dozen shellings from various artillery and MLRS on 21 settlements in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts over the past day. Рыбарь reports at least 8 artillery shellings on Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya and a woman injured in Horlivka due to artillery fire. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts are ongoing in Turkey, with reports of ongoing discussions and uncertainty regarding the start time and level of participation. Коцnews outlines five purported demands of Russia for negotiations, framing them as "negotiations from a position of strength," including Ukraine not claiming five regions (DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea), Ukraine's neutrality, mutual refusal of reparations, protection of Russian speakers' rights, and immediate ceasefire with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the administrative borders of the claimed regions. ТАСС reports that American legislators have intensified calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow following the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, according to Reuters. STERNENKO reports that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha met with US State Department officials Marco Rubio and Senator Lindsey Graham in Antalya to convey Zelenskyy's vision for peace efforts and coordinate positions. (Коцnews, ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Ukraine-International Relations: ТАСС reports that American legislators have intensified calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow following the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, according to Reuters. Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump calling Zelenskyy an "excellent salesman" and expressing frustration about where money for Ukraine has gone, also stating Trump refused to call Putin an obstacle to peace. Trump also reportedly believes Putin is "tired" of the war. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, resigned because she believed Trump was "abetting" Russia and could no longer "conscientiously pursue the administration's policy," urging America to "show leadership in the face of aggression, not weakness or complicity." (ТАСС, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Internal Russian Politics: Басурин о главном shares information and photos commemorating the opening of a monument to A.V. Suvorov in Saint Petersburg in 1801, framing it within a narrative of Russian military prowess and invincibility. Полиция Хабаровского края shares a video providing cybercrime prevention advice, including not sharing sensitive information, which while not directly military, reflects a domestic security concern. Рыбарь requests financial support, mentioning the effectiveness of their GIS service and reports, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. (Басурин о главном, Полиция Хабаровского края, Рыбарь)
US-Russia Relations: Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump calling Zelenskyy an "excellent salesman" and expressing frustration about where money for Ukraine has gone, also stating Trump refused to call Putin an obstacle to peace. Trump also reportedly believes Putin is "tired" of the war. ТАСС reports that American legislators have intensified calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow following the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, according to Reuters. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, resigned because she believed Trump was "abetting" Russia. (Два майора, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Turkey-Russia/Ukraine Relations: Turkey continues to be the location for potential negotiations, with reports of ongoing discussions. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Information Operations and Narrative Control: Басурин о главном shares information and photos commemorating the opening of a monument to A.V. Suvorov in Saint Petersburg in 1801, framing it within a narrative of Russian military prowess and invincibility. Colonelcassad shares a video about Sergeant Victoria Galanova, a logistics assistant from the LPR serving in the Russian Army, presenting a personal narrative of motivation and confidence in Russian victory. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle, using it to highlight the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump's critical statements regarding Zelenskyy and aid to Ukraine, potentially aiming to sow doubt about Ukrainian leadership and international support. Рыбарь requests financial support for their information and analytical work, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. Коцnews outlines purported Russian demands for negotiations, framing them as a position of strength, likely intended to influence perceptions of the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the resignation of the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, framing it in a way that supports the narrative of Trump's alleged "abetting" of Russia and highlighting alleged Ukrainian criticism of the ambassador. (Басурин о глав ном, Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, Рыбарь, Коцnews, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Middle East Conflict: РБК-Україна reports that Israel has begun a new large-scale operation in Gaza. Рыбарь also reports on the Middle East crisis, mentioning Israeli raids and Houthi missile launches. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Law Enforcement and Criminal Activity: Полиция Хабаровского края shares a video providing cybercrime prevention advice. ASTRA reports on accusations of sexual offenses against minors by Russian military personnel in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, including one serviceman being sought and another from a previous case whose detention status is unknown. (Полиция Хабаровского края, ASTRA)
Internal Security and Border Attacks: Russia claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight – one over Belgorod Oblast and one over Rostov Oblast, and later specifies one over Kursk Oblast and one over Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports the downing of two Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Casualties: The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian personnel losses are around 972,600, with an increase of 910 in the last day. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian forces lost 77 personnel on the southern direction over the past day. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," suggesting Russian fatalities in this area. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, DeepState)
Military Performance and Capabilities: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 combat engagements throughout the past day, with significant activity and numerous repelled assaults across multiple directions. Russian aviation continues to conduct strikes with guided and unguided aerial bombs and uses extensive shelling. Russia claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian airborne forces downing a Ukrainian "Furia" drone and destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point near Chasiv Yar. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. Two Mayors, citing Voin DV, report the liberation of Volnoye Pole by units of the "Vostok" group of forces on the South Donetsk direction. Сили оборони Півдня України report on Russian military activity on the southern direction, including 18 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivskyi direction and 2 attacks repelled on the Orikhivskyi direction, as well as massive air strikes on the Hulyaipilskyi direction and regrouping efforts in the Prydniprovskyi direction. Рыбарь reports on Russian advances and battles in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, Novopavlivskyi, and Andriivskyi directions. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," suggesting Russian casualties in this area. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Ukrainian forces have increased the intensity of strikes on the territory of the "LNR". (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, Коцnews, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, DeepState)
Information Operations: Басурин о главном shares information and photos commemorating the opening of a monument to A.V. Suvorov in Saint Petersburg in 1801, framing it within a narrative of Russian military prowess and invincibility. Colonelcassad shares a video about Sergeant Victoria Galanova, a logistics assistant from the LPR serving in the Russian Army, presenting a personal narrative of motivation and confidence in Russian victory. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle, using it to highlight the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump's critical statements regarding Zelenskyy and aid to Ukraine, potentially aiming to sow doubt about Ukrainian leadership and international support. Рыбарь requests financial support for their information and analytical work, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. Коцnews outlines purported Russian demands for negotiations, framing them as a position of strength, likely intended to influence perceptions of the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the resignation of the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, framing it in a way that supports the narrative of Trump's alleged "abetting" of Russia and highlighting alleged Ukrainian criticism of the ambassador. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, Рыбарь, Коцnews, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Logistics and Support: Colonelcassad shares a video about Sergeant Victoria Galanova, a logistics assistant from the LPR serving in the Russian Army, highlighting logistical roles within the Russian military. Рыбарь requests financial support, which can contribute to sustaining their information and analytical efforts, indirectly supporting the military information space. Сили оборони Півдня України report that in the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces are conducting logistics, evacuation, and reconnaissance measures. (Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Political Figures: Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump's statements, reflecting the attention given to international political figures within some Russian information channels. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the resignation of the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, discussing her interactions with Ukrainian officials and her reasons for leaving, which are framed around the political figure of Donald Trump. (Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones, highlighting the ongoing efforts to counter Russian aerial threats, which relies on equipment and training support. STERNENKO emphasizes the importance of donating to help down Russian drones, linking it directly to saving lives, indicating the continued need for public support for military needs. Сили оборони Півдня України report on Russian losses, including equipment like artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, motorcycles, quadbikes, and boats, implying the need for resupply and support for Ukrainian forces engaging them. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," which can serve to highlight the human cost to the adversary and potentially garner support for the Ukrainian effort. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, DeepState)
Humanitarian Situation: The Russian attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast has resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries, underscoring the severe impact on the civilian population. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video highlighting the destruction in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, emphasizing the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian areas. Serhii Lysak reports Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district twice yesterday evening with FPV drones and also targeted Nikopol with a drone this morning, indicating continued pressure on civilian areas, though no casualties were reported in these specific incidents. Олександр Вілкул reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih district is controlled, with no shelling overnight, and all essential services in Kryvyi Rih city are operational, indicating a relatively stable situation in this specific area. Сили оборони Півдня України report that FPV drones affected frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts and that several people were injured in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to Russian drone terror and artillery shelling. Рыбарь reports a drone attack on the administration building in Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya, injuring two employees, and a woman injured in Horlivka due to artillery fire and a teenage girl injured in Makiivka due to a kamikaze drone attack. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports that 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were affected by enemy strikes over the past day, resulting in one fatality (a 55-year-old woman in Kupiansk) and injuries to multiple civilians (six men in Kupiansk, three individuals in Kutkivka). He also reports damage to civilian infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a massive Russian drone attack on a village in Sumy community overnight, involving about 10 strike UAVs, causing a fire and damage to civilian infrastructure. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Support for Information and Analysis (Russia): Рыбарь requests financial support, mentioning the effectiveness of their GIS service and reports, highlighting the continued reliance on public support for certain information gathering and analytical efforts within Russia. (Рыбарь)
Accusations of Misconduct Affecting Trust and Support: ASTRA reports on accusations of sexual offenses against minors by Russian military personnel in occupied territories, including one serviceman being sought and another from a previous case whose detention status is unknown. Such reports, regardless of verification, can impact public perception and support for military personnel. (ASTRA)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, with 145 combat engagements throughout the past day, and claiming tactical successes, including the liberation of Volnoye Pole on the South Donetsk direction, and Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs (112 KABs), unguided aviation rockets, artillery (5653 shellings, 135 from MLRS), and drones (2596 kamikaze drones used). Undergoing a high rate of attrition, with 910 personnel losses reported in the last day by the Ukrainian General Staff and 77 personnel losses on the southern direction reported by Сили оборони Півдня України. Conducting cross-border activity and countering alleged Ukrainian incursions in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, claiming the destruction of two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight. Utilizing FPV drones for targeting equipment and affecting civilian areas. Employing propaganda and information operations to shape narratives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian airborne forces actions near Chasiv Yar, including downing a Ukrainian drone and destroying a UAV control point. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. Two Mayors, citing Voin DV, report the liberation of Volnoye Pole by units of the "Vostok" group of forces on the South Donetsk direction. Коцnews outlines purported Russian demands for negotiations, reflecting their strategic objectives. Сили оборони Півдня України report on Russian military activity on the southern direction, including massive air strikes on the Hulyaipilskyi direction and regrouping, logistics, evacuation, and reconnaissance measures in the Prydniprovskyi direction, and also report Russian forces using more than six hundred kamikaze drones of various modifications and carrying out almost 275 drops from UAVs over the past day, and the impact of FPV drones on frontline settlements. Рыбарь reports on Russian advances and tactics in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, Novopavlivskyi, and Andriivskyi directions, including the use of artillery and FPV drones. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," suggesting Russian casualties in this area. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Ukrainian forces have increased the intensity of strikes on the territory of the "LNR". ASTRA reports on accusations of sexual offenses against minors by Russian military personnel in occupied territories. Рыбарь reports a drone attack and artillery shelling on Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya and a kamikaze drone attack in Makiivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, Коцnews, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, DeepState, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Ukrainian Forces: Defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts, repelling numerous attacks on the Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, and Orikhiv directions. Actively countering Russian aerial and drone threats, claiming to have neutralized 155 operational-tactical level UAVs and striking one enemy air defense asset. Utilizing drones for various purposes, including intercepting Russian drones and targeting equipment. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian attacks, including the tragic attack on a bus in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones. STERNENKO emphasizes the importance of downing Russian drones, linking it directly to saving lives. Сили оборони Півдня України report that Ukrainian forces on the southern direction repelled 18 attacks on the Novopavlivskyi direction and 2 attacks on the Orikhivskyi direction, and are conducting defensive measures against massive air strikes on the Hulyaipilskyi direction and Russian regrouping efforts in the Prydniprovskyi direction. They also report on Russian losses inflicted by Ukrainian forces. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, that Ukrainian forces have increased the intensity of strikes on the territory of the "LNR". Рыбарь reports a Ukrainian drone attack on Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya and a kamikaze drone attack in Makiivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Рыбарь)
Third-Party Involvement: Diplomatic efforts are ongoing in Turkey. ТАСС reports that American legislators have intensified calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow, according to Reuters. Два майора shares a video quoting Donald Trump's statements regarding Zelenskyy and aid to Ukraine. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the resignation of the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink. РБК-Україна reports on Israeli operations in Gaza. Рыбарь reports on the Middle East crisis, including Israeli raids on the West Bank and Houthi missile launches. (ТАСС, Два майора, Коцnews, STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides, including FPV drones for targeting personnel and equipment. Russian forces are using guided and unguided aerial bombs extensively and conducting widespread shelling and MLRS fire. Ukraine is actively intercepting Russian drones and utilizing their own. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian airborne forces downing a Ukrainian "Furia" drone and destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point near Chasiv Yar. Сливочный каприз shares information and geolocated video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Ulyanovka (Malinivka) by Russian FPV drones. РБК-Україна shares a video showcasing Ukrainian forces intercepting various Russian drones (Molniya-2, Zala Z-16, Supercam S350, Orlan-10). STERNENKO tentatively identifies the weapon used in the bus attack as a "Lancet" drone. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian forces using more than six hundred kamikaze drones of various modifications and carrying out almost 275 drops from UAVs and the impact of FPV drones on frontline settlements. They also report capturing Russian equipment including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, motorcycles, quadbikes, and boats. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian military equipment parking point in Sumy Oblast with "Geran-2" drones. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports the use of various drones and aviation rockets and KABs in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. Рыбарь reports on Russian tactics in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, Novopavlivskyi, and Andriivskyi directions, including the use of artillery and FPV drones. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сливочный каприз, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Рыбарь)
Personnel: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 910 Russian personnel losses in the last day. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian forces lost 77 personnel on the southern direction over the past day. DeepState shares images of documents of claimed "dead Russian assault troops from the village of Bahatyr," suggesting Russian fatalities in this area. ASTRA reports on accusations of sexual offenses against minors by Russian military personnel. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, DeepState, ASTRA)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The tragic Russian attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast, resulting in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries, is a significant strategic event with severe humanitarian consequences. This incident will likely be a major focus of Ukrainian and international condemnation, reinforcing narratives of Russian aggression and the targeting of civilians. It underscores the continued high risk for civilians in border regions and may influence evacuation efforts and international pressure on Russia. STERNENKO tentatively identifying the weapon as a "Lancet" drone highlights the ongoing threat posed by these platforms in border areas. The continued attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, resulting in fatalities and injuries, as reported by Oleh Syniehubov and Serhii Lysak, further emphasize the strategic impact of Russian strikes on the civilian population and underscore the need for enhanced air defense capabilities.
The reported 145 combat engagements throughout the past day across numerous directions by the Ukrainian General Staff and the detailed reports from Сили оборони Півдня України and Рыбарь on intense fighting and claimed Russian advances in key areas like Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and the southern direction indicate a sustained and intense Russian ground offensive across a wide front. This highlights Russia's strategic commitment to achieving its objectives through military means and the significant pressure on Ukrainian forces. The high number of repelled assaults on key directions demonstrates the resilience of Ukrainian defenses but also underscores the scale of the challenge.
The reported Russian liberation of Volnoye Pole on the South Donetsk direction, and Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, are claimed localized tactical successes for Russia. While the strategic significance of these specific settlements needs further assessment in the broader context, they contribute to the narrative of Russian advances and can impact morale.
The updated Russian claim of downing two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts contributes to the strategic picture of ongoing Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory and Russian efforts to counter it. This highlights the continued tit-for-tat nature of strikes in border regions and the importance of drone warfare for both sides. The reported increase in the intensity of Ukrainian strikes on the territory of the "LNR," as reported by TASS citing Andrey Marochko, further indicates a strategic focus by Ukraine on targeting Russian-controlled territories.
The reported intensification of calls for stricter sanctions against Moscow by American legislators following the Istanbul negotiations, as reported by TASS citing Reuters, indicates that a lack of perceived progress in diplomatic efforts is likely to translate into increased economic pressure on Russia. This is a significant strategic consideration as it impacts Russia's resources and international standing.
Donald Trump's reported statements critical of Zelenskyy and aid to Ukraine, and his refusal to call Putin an obstacle to peace, are strategically significant due to his potential influence on US policy and public opinion. These statements can be exploited by Russia in information operations to create divisions and potentially impact the level of international support for Ukraine. His belief that Putin is "tired" of the war could also be a strategic miscalculation. The report of the former US Ambassador to Ukraine resigning due to disagreements with Trump's perceived stance towards Russia further underscores the potential strategic impact of hypothetical future US policies on the conflict and highlights internal divisions within the US establishment regarding the approach to Russia and Ukraine.
Коцnews outlining purported Russian demands for negotiations, including Ukraine not claiming five regions (DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea), Ukraine's neutrality, mutual refusal of reparations, protection of Russian speakers' rights, and immediate ceasefire with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the administrative borders of the claimed regions, presents a clear picture of Russia's strategic objectives for a negotiated settlement, as framed by this source. This information is crucial for understanding Russia's position and the potential challenges in reaching an agreement. The speculation about Sumy and Kharkiv being potential areas for compromise in these demands, according to the author, is a notable point, although its basis is unclear.
The Ukrainian General Staff's report of 910 claimed Russian personnel losses yesterday and the report from Сили оборони Півдня України of 77 Russian personnel losses on the southern direction are significant strategic indicators of the high intensity of the fighting and the human cost for Russia. While these figures are contested, they contribute to the assessment of Russian capabilities and the sustainability of their operations.
The ongoing Russian attacks on civilian areas in the Nikopol district with FPV drones reflect a strategic objective to pressure and terrorize the civilian population and potentially disrupt civilian life and infrastructure in this area. The reported impact of FPV drones on frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and the drone attack and shelling on Kamenka-Dnieprovskaya, injuring civilians, further highlight this strategic objective and its humanitarian consequences. The kamikaze drone attack in Makiivka resulting in a teenage girl's injury also underscores the impact of these tactics on civilians in occupied territories.
The ongoing diplomatic efforts, including those in Istanbul and the meeting between the Ukrainian Foreign Minister and US officials in Antalya, continue to represent a potential strategic path towards de-escalation, although the current military posture of both sides, with intense fighting continuing, suggests that a negotiated settlement is not immediately imminent. The reported calls for stricter sanctions following the Istanbul talks also highlight the link between the lack of military de-escalation and increased diplomatic and economic pressure.
The continued use of propaganda and information operations by both sides, as evidenced by the various reports on military achievements, historical commemorations, and political commentary, remains a key strategic element aimed at influencing domestic and international perceptions of the conflict.
The reports of accusations of sexual offenses against minors by Russian military personnel in occupied territories are strategically significant from a humanitarian and information warfare perspective. Such reports, regardless of verification, can severely damage the image of Russian forces and be used by Ukraine and its allies to highlight alleged human rights abuses, influencing international opinion and potentially impacting the legitimacy of Russian control over occupied areas.
The report of Israel's new large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip signifies a significant development in the Middle East conflict. While not directly related to Ukraine, it is a major geopolitical event that will likely draw international attention and resources, potentially impacting the broader strategic landscape and the focus of international actors.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report