Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-05-17 02:11:53Z
9 months ago
Previous (2025-05-17 01:10:56Z)

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 17, 2025, 02:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains defined by persistent and widespread Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian Oblasts, notably concentrated in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kyiv, and Cherkasy regions. Multiple groups of Russian "Shahed" drones are being tracked, with a significant westward and southward trajectory observed, indicating a continued strategy to target a broad geographical area and potentially critical infrastructure. Intense ground combat persists, primarily in Donetsk Oblast and along the Kursk and Sumy border regions. Russian aerial activity continues to be characterized by extensive drone and guided aerial bomb (KAB) usage. Diplomatic efforts focused on potential negotiations in Istanbul remain ongoing, though conflicting signals persist regarding a potential truce and delegation composition. Internal Russian affairs, including security measures, legal proceedings, and social events, continue to provide context. Recent reports highlight continued multi-directional Russian drone movements, Russian claims of Ukrainian troop deployments in Sumy Oblast, Russian military bloggers showcasing FPV drone tactics, and significant diplomatic and political commentary from Donald Trump regarding potential negotiations and his views on Ukraine's leverage. A notable external development is the commencement of a new large-scale Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip. Russian sources continue to disseminate narratives regarding alleged Ukrainian atrocities against prisoners of war. The latest reports indicate continued Russian drone movements into central and southern Ukraine, specifically towards Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts and within Kyiv Oblast (Bilotserkivskyi district). Russian sources claim a strike on Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast and highlight the use of sniper pairs and FPV drones in offensive operations. Russian political commentary continues to frame negotiations as unlikely due to perceived unwillingness from Kyiv and its European supporters. Legal proceedings against a former Russian general have entered into force. A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

  • Confirmed Russian Drone Movements (Expanded Detail): The latest messages from Mykolaivskyi Vanyok and the Ukrainian Air Force provide more granular detail on the continued Russian drone movements. Drones from Vinnytsia Oblast are confirmed to be moving into Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Additional drones are confirmed in the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast heading west. New drone groups are reported from Sumy Oblast heading towards Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast). New drones are reported in the western part of Kharkiv Oblast heading south, and one drone is reported south of Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast) heading southeast. The Ukrainian Air Force also confirms drone movement in Vinnytsia Oblast towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast and specifically towards Vinnytsia city. Drone activity is also reported in Poltava Oblast near Pyriatyn and Hadiach, and in Khmelnytskyi Oblast towards Krasyliv. This provides more specific tracking of the multi-directional drone attack across these regions.
  • Claimed Russian Artillery Strike and UAV Use (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and mortar crew by artillery fire from a 2A36 "Giatsint-B" howitzer of the 238th artillery brigade of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army. The caption states the target was detected by a UAV, highlighting the claimed combined use of drones for reconnaissance and artillery for strike. The location is not explicitly stated but the unit mentioned (8th Guards Combined Arms Army) operates in the Donetsk direction.
  • Russian Footage of Robotic Platform Training (Kherson Oblast): TASS shares video footage from a correspondent who observed training of Russian military assault units of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces in Kherson Oblast using combat robotic platforms. The video is attributed to a UAV crew of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade. This highlights the claimed use and training with advanced military technology by Russian forces in this region.
  • Russian Political Proposal (Economic): TASS reports that Sergey Mironov, head of the "A Just Russia - For Truth" faction in the State Duma, is proposing to reduce the value-added tax (VAT) to 15% and eliminate VAT on basic food products, as well as limit retail markups on essential food items. This is a domestic economic and political proposal in Russia.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Donetsk Oblast (Sloviansk, towards Donetsk Oblast, past Izium and Balakliia, Shakhtyorsk direction): Affected by Russian drone activity, with reports of drones approaching Sloviansk and multiple groups from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers continue to report on intense ground combat and claimed advances in various areas. Drones are also reported moving past Izium and Balakliia towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in this general direction using a UAV and artillery. (23:19, 00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 01:02, 01:04, 02:03)
  • Sumy Oblast (Romny, Lebedyn, west of Sumy, Velyka Chernechyna): Affected by Russian drone activity. Most drones are reportedly moving past Romny towards Chernihiv Oblast, with some in the Lebedyn area and one west of Sumy moving west. TASS reports alleged Ukrainian troop deployments in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian forces location near Velyka Chernechyna. New drone groups are reported from Sumy Oblast heading towards Pryluky. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19, 23:24, 00:45, 01:40)
  • Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn, towards Chernihiv, Pryluky, towards Kyiv Oblast): Affected by Russian drone activity. Drones are reportedly moving towards Chernihiv and Pryluky. A group of drones near Pryluky is heading towards Kyiv Oblast. One drone is circling north of Nezhin. New drone groups from Sumy Oblast are reported heading towards Pryluky. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19, 23:25, 23:27, 00:00, 01:40)
  • Odesa Oblast (Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk): Affected by Russian drone activity from the Black Sea, with several groups heading towards Pivdennyi and reports of attacks on Chornomorsk. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Balakliia, Chuhuiv, Zlatopil, Izium, west of Kharkiv, Kupiansk district, towards Donetsk Oblast, from Belgorod towards Chuhuiv, past Izium and Balakliia, south of Lozova): Affected by Russian drone activity. Drones are reportedly heading towards Balakliia, Chuhuiv, Zlatopil, and Izium. One group is west of Kharkiv heading south. Three drones are in the Kupiansk district heading towards Balakliia. Multiple groups from Kharkiv Oblast are reportedly heading towards Donetsk Oblast. One drone from Belgorod is heading towards Chuhuiv. Drones are also reported moving past Izium and Balakliia towards Donetsk Oblast. New drones are reported on the west of Kharkiv Oblast heading south, and one south of Lozova heading southeast. (23:19, 23:25, 23:27, 00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 00:51, 01:02, 01:04, 01:40)
  • Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (Bilotserkivskyi district, towards Kyiv Oblast, near Pereyaslav, Kaniv): Affected by Russian drone activity. Drones are reported near Pereyaslav heading towards the Bilotserkivskyi district. A group of drones near Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading towards Kaniv. Drones are reported moving through Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, and past Kaniv on the Bilotserkivskyi district. (00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 00:51, 01:02, 01:04)
  • Poltava Oblast: Drones from Sumy Oblast reportedly flew past Lebedyn into Poltava Oblast. Drone activity is reported in Poltava Oblast near Pyriatyn and Hadiach. (23:19, 02:06)
  • Cherkasy Oblast (Kaniv): Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts heading towards Kaniv. Drones are reported moving past Kaniv on the Bilotserkivskyi district of Kyiv Oblast. (00:06, 00:11, 01:02, 01:04)
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Affected by Russian drone activity from Kyiv Oblast. Drones are reported moving from Vinnytsia Oblast into Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Additional drones are reported in the north of Vinnytsia Oblast heading west. Drones are reported heading towards Vinnytsia city. (00:51, 01:02, 01:04, 01:40, 02:06)
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by Russian drone activity from Kyiv Oblast. (01:02, 01:04)
  • Gaza Strip (Israel/Palestine): Israeli forces have begun a new large-scale military operation. A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya. (00:09, 01:09)
  • Russia (Belgorod): A drone from Belgorod is reportedly heading towards Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast. (00:00)
  • Turkey (Istanbul): Continues to be the location for diplomatic negotiations. (Earlier reports).
  • Libya (Tripoli): A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya. (01:09)
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Affected by Russian drone activity moving from Vinnytsia Oblast. Drones from Vinnytsia Oblast are reported to be entering Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with some heading towards Krasyliv. (01:40, 02:06)
  • Kherson Oblast: TASS reports on training of Russian military assault units of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces in Kherson Oblast using combat robotic platforms. (02:03)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

  • Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking numerous drone groups across various oblasts. Russian forces are employing FPV drones and reportedly launching drones from Belgorod towards Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has previously reported the use of naval drones. Detailed tracking of numerous Russian drone groups across Odesa, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Oblasts is ongoing. Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. The latest messages confirm the movement of multiple enemy UAV groups from Kharkiv Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast, kamikaze drones along the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts towards Kaniv and on the Bilotserkivskyi district, and drones from Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter. The latest messages provide detailed tracking of numerous Russian drone groups across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar using a UAV for detection and artillery for strike, highlighting the claimed combined use of drones and artillery. TASS shares video footage attributed to a UAV crew of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade showing training of Russian military assault units in Kherson Oblast using combat robotic platforms, implying the use of reconnaissance or support drones in this training. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19, 23:25, 23:27, 23:30, 00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 00:45, 00:51, 01:02, 01:04, 01:03, 01:40, 02:03, 02:06)
  • Aviation Activity: Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews of the "West" Group of Forces. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops, implying associated aviation support or activity. (23:30, 01:03)
  • Naval Activity: Reports of Russian drones emerging from the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast continue. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19)
  • Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively tracking and engaging numerous Russian drone groups across various oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting Russian counter-drone efforts. (Numerous reports on drone tracking and engagement, 01:03)
  • Artillery Activity: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and mortar crew by artillery fire from a 2A36 "Giatsint-B" howitzer, highlighting claimed Russian artillery effectiveness. (02:03)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

  • Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Discussions regarding potential negotiations in Istanbul are ongoing. Donald Trump has commented on his conversation with Zelenskyy and his potential role in future talks. A TASS report quotes a Russian official stating Trump's participation is essential for good negotiation results. TASS reports Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, expressing the opinion that forces in Kyiv and their "group of support" in Europe are not interested in ending the conflict and will prevent significant progress in negotiations in the near future. This reflects the Russian political stance on the likelihood of successful negotiations. (23:11, 00:09, 01:00)
  • International Support for Ukraine: Donald Trump's comments on potential sanctions against Russia are noted. (23:11)
  • Russia-US Relations: Donald Trump has commented on his conversation with Zelenskyy, expressed confidence in meeting with Putin, and discussed potential sanctions against Russia. (23:11) A TASS report quotes Dmitriev stating Trump's participation is essential for good negotiation results. (00:09) A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya, though it is officially denied by the US. (01:09)
  • Russia-Germany Relations: The alleged detention of Ukrainian agents in Germany on suspicion of working for Russian special services could strain relations. (Earlier reports).
  • Russia-Switzerland Relations: A related suspect in the alleged German agent case is reportedly in Switzerland, potentially involving diplomatic and legal cooperation between these countries. (Earlier reports).
  • Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks: Armenia's statement of readiness to sign and ratify a peace agreement is a significant diplomatic development in a separate regional conflict. (Earlier reports).
  • Internal Russian Politics: TASS reports that new detentions may occur in a case related to the Russian Ministry of Transport. TASS reports that the verdict in the case of large-scale bribes involving former General Shamarin has entered into legal force. TASS reporting Konstantin Kosachev's opinion on the lack of interest in ending the conflict from Kyiv and its European supporters, serving as a Russian narrative. TASS reports on a political proposal by Sergey Mironov to reduce VAT and eliminate it on basic food products. (00:01, 01:01, 01:00, 02:08)
  • Russia's Strategic Messaging and Information Operations: Opera Z: Russian Spring War Correspondents is disseminating a video and commentary attributed to Donald Trump, potentially for propaganda purposes. Colonelcassad is sharing alleged testimony from a Russian POW claiming abuse by Ukrainian forces, likely as part of an information operation. Colonelcassad is also promoting a video showcasing the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. TASS reports Konstantin Kosachev's opinion on the lack of interest in ending the conflict from Kyiv and its European supporters, serving as a Russian narrative. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and highlights the effectiveness of the involved Russian artillery brigade. TASS shares video footage of Russian military training with robotic platforms, likely for propaganda purposes. (23:11, 23:30, 00:03, 01:00, 02:03)
  • US Politics: Donald Trump has made comments on his conversation with Zelenskyy, potential negotiations with Putin, and sanctions against Russia. (23:11) A TASS report quotes Dmitriev stating Trump's participation is essential for good negotiation results. (00:09) A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya, though it is officially denied by the US. (01:09)
  • Middle East Conflict: Israeli forces have commenced a new large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip. A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya. (00:09, 01:09)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

  • Internal Security: TASS reports that new detentions may occur in a case related to the Russian Ministry of Transport. TASS reports that the verdict in the case of large-scale bribes involving former General Shamarin has entered into legal force. (00:01, 01:01)
  • Information Operations: Colonelcassad is sharing alleged testimony from a Russian POW claiming abuse by Ukrainian forces, likely as part of an information operation. Colonelcassad is also promoting a video showcasing the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. TASS reports Konstantin Kosachev's opinion on the lack of interest in ending the conflict from Kyiv and its European supporters, serving as a Russian narrative. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and highlights the effectiveness of the involved Russian artillery brigade, likely for propaganda. TASS shares video footage of Russian military training with robotic platforms, likely for propaganda purposes. (23:30, 00:03, 01:00, 02:03)
  • Military Performance and Capabilities: Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. TASS reports alleged Ukrainian troop deployments in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian forces location in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops and destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting claimed combined arms tactics and counter-drone success. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and mortar crew by artillery fire, highlighting claimed Russian artillery effectiveness and the use of UAVs for targeting. TASS shares video footage from Kherson Oblast showcasing training of Russian military assault units with combat robotic platforms, highlighting the claimed use and training with advanced military technology. (23:24, 23:30, 00:45, 01:03, 02:03)
  • Judicial System: TASS reports that new detentions may occur in a case related to the Russian Ministry of Transport. TASS reports that the verdict in the case of large-scale bribes involving former General Shamarin has entered into legal force. (00:01, 01:01)
  • Economic Policy: TASS reports on a political proposal by Sergey Mironov to reduce VAT and eliminate it on basic food products, as well as limit retail markups. (02:08)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

  • Support for Military Personnel and POWs (Russia): Colonelcassad is sharing alleged testimony from a Russian POW claiming abuse by Ukrainian forces. (00:03)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

  • Ukrainian Forces: Reportedly deploying "all their elite units" and the "Aidar" battalion to fight in Sumy Oblast, according to a TASS report citing Marochko. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking numerous Russian drone groups across various oblasts. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike on a temporary deployment point and vehicle/equipment staging area of the Ukrainian 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade near Velyka Chernechyna, Sumy Oblast, implying the presence of this unit. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting Russian counter-drone efforts against Ukrainian UAVs. The latest messages confirm Ukrainian air defense tracking numerous enemy UAV groups across multiple oblasts. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and mortar crew by Russian artillery, highlighting claimed Ukrainian losses in equipment and personnel. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19, 23:24, 23:25, 23:27, 00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 00:45, 00:51, 01:02, 01:04, 01:03, 01:40, 02:03, 02:06)
  • Russian Forces: Continuing widespread drone attacks across multiple oblasts. Employing FPV drones, with a video showcasing the combat work of FPV drone crews of the "West" Group of Forces. Launching drones from Belgorod. Reportedly facing Ukrainian troop deployments in Sumy Oblast. The latest messages confirm the movement of multiple enemy UAV groups from Kharkiv Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast, kamikaze drones along the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts towards Kaniv and on the Bilotserkivskyi district, and drones from Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike in Sumy Oblast on a Ukrainian forces location. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops and destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting claimed combined arms tactics and counter-drone success. The latest messages provide detailed tracking of numerous Russian drone groups across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and mortar crew by artillery fire from the 238th artillery brigade, highlighting claimed Russian artillery effectiveness and the use of UAVs for targeting. TASS shares video footage from Kherson Oblast showcasing training of Russian military assault units of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces with combat robotic platforms, highlighting the claimed use and training with advanced military technology by Russian forces in this region. (23:11, 23:14, 23:19, 23:24, 23:25, 23:27, 23:30, 00:00, 00:06, 00:11, 00:45, 00:51, 01:02, 01:04, 01:03, 01:40, 02:03, 02:06)
  • Foreign Involvement: Donald Trump has commented on his conversation with Zelenskyy and his potential role in future talks with Putin. A report emerges of a potential US plan under the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Libya, though it is officially denied by the US. (23:11, 01:09)
  • Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones). Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops and destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting claimed combined arms tactics and counter-drone success. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar using a UAV for detection and artillery fire from a 2A36 "Giatsint-B" howitzer, highlighting the claimed combined use of drones for reconnaissance and artillery for strike. TASS shares video footage from Kherson Oblast showcasing training of Russian military assault units with combat robotic platforms, highlighting the claimed use and training with advanced military technology. (23:30, 00:45, 01:03, 02:03)
  • Personnel: TASS reports alleged Ukrainian troop deployments, including "elite units" and the "Aidar" battalion, to Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike on a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade near Velyka Chernechyna, Sumy Oblast, implying the presence of this unit's personnel. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops
Previous (2025-05-17 01:10:56Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.