Sitrep 2025-05-16 20:41:46

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 16, 2025, 20:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat in the East and South, with reports from Russian sources claiming advances on multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast and Ukraine reporting successful defensive actions. Russia continues widespread aerial and drone activity, utilizing guided aerial bombs (KABs) and various types of UAVs, while also highlighting claimed technological advancements in their drone capabilities and efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial threats. Ukraine is actively engaged in defensive operations, utilizing UAVs for reconnaissance and targeting and conducting counter-battery fire. Both sides are actively participating in information operations, promoting narratives of success, highlighting enemy losses, and leveraging domestic and international events.

Diplomatic efforts are centered on the potential negotiations in Istanbul, although the timing and level of participation remain fluid and uncertain. Russia has publicly outlined its significant preconditions, including territorial concessions, which appear to be a major obstacle to a diplomatic breakthrough. Ukraine is sending a delegation focused on a ceasefire and linking further actions to Russia's demonstrated readiness for peace and potential international sanctions. The involvement of international actors, including the US and the Vatican, in discussing negotiation frameworks and potential mediation underscores the complex geopolitical dimension of the conflict.

Internal Russian dynamics include efforts to boost military capabilities, address personnel and logistical needs through public fundraising and recruitment, and maintain internal security and control over information. Reports of internal social issues and potential dissent continue to emerge. Ukraine continues to seek international support, focus on internal resilience, and address the human cost of the conflict, including casualty reporting and prisoner of war issues.

Key updates from the new messages (past 30 minutes), building upon the previous analysis, include:

Russian Demands in Istanbul Detailed: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the same five key demands reportedly voiced by the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, in Istanbul. These demands include: 1) Neutral Ukraine with no foreign troops or weapons of mass destruction, 2) Mutual refusal of reparations, 3) Ukraine to adopt European standards for minority rights and end "nationalist propaganda," 4) Ukraine to recognize Russia's constitutional claims on five regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea) and seek their international recognition, and 5) Ukrainian forces to withdraw from all five claimed territories as a condition for an immediate ceasefire. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны notes that Russian sources have not yet confirmed this, but Western media are publishing it. Оперативний ЗСУ comments on the "unrealistic nature of the demands." РБК-Україна also highlights the demands and includes a photo of the negotiation table. НгП раZVедка comments on Medinsky's perceived toughness in relation to Trump's absence. These reports are highly significant as they provide a detailed public outline of Russia's preconditions for a potential peace settlement, clearly indicating a demand for significant territorial and strategic concessions from Ukraine.
Russian Military Claims on South-Donetsk Direction: Воин DV shares a video claiming that an "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery position on the South-Donetsk direction. This indicates continued Russian counter-battery fire efforts in this area and highlights the claimed effectiveness of their artillery systems.
Internal Russian Issues - Prisoner Health: Север.Реалии reports that doctors have found foci of tuberculosis in Alexei Gorinov, a former Moscow municipal deputy convicted in cases of "fakes" about the army and justifying terrorism. He was reportedly moved to a pre-trial detention center in Novosibirsk and fell ill during transit. Doctors have found signs of tuberculosis, but his lawyer states there is nothing to treat him with in the facility. This highlights concerns about the health of political prisoners in Russia and the conditions within detention facilities.
Russian Claim of Liberating Mykhailivka and Ukrainian Withdrawal: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming that fighters of the 5th brigade of the "Center" group of forces liberated Mykhailivka and destroyed enemy forces primarily in small arms combat. They claim that after the surrender of the neighboring village of Mirolyubivka, the main part of Ukrainian forces hastily left their positions, and Russian assault units only had to suppress the resistance of small enemy groups. This report, if verified, indicates further Russian tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in the area of Mykhailivka, and suggests a potential withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the area after the loss of Mirolyubivka.
Internal Russian Information Operations - History Textbooks: ТАСС reports that new history textbooks for grades 5-9 in Russian schools will use a parallel approach to the history of Russia and the world, according to the rector of MGIMO, Anatoly Torkunov. This indicates a strategic effort to shape the historical narrative presented to younger generations in Russia, likely to align with current state ideology and interpretations of historical events.
Increased Russian Activity and Claimed Advance on Kurakhovo-Bogdanovka-Alexeevka Line: Сливочный каприз shares a map and analysis of combat operations in the Kurakhovo area, reporting that a Russian serviceman was under fire near fortifications south of Bogdanovka. They also claim that Russian forces have expanded their control zone on the Bogdanovka - Alexeevka line by 1 km. This indicates ongoing combat and claimed Russian advances in this specific sector of Donetsk Oblast.
Reported Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Equipment on Kupyansk Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an 82-mm mortar, two T-72 tanks, and one T-64 tank of Ukrainian forces in the area of Kutkovka and Podoly on the Kupyansk direction, using FPV drones. This report, if verified, highlights continued Russian use of FPV drones to target Ukrainian armored vehicles and artillery and claims successful strikes in this area.
Confirmed Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Excluding Zaporizhzhia City): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the cancellation of an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates that a potential aerial threat to this region has passed, but highlights the continued risk of such threats.
Reports of Alleged Ukrainian Trading of Western Weapons on the Black Market: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims to have found new facts about alleged Ukrainian trading of Western weapons on the black market. This is a Russian information operation aimed at discrediting Ukraine and Western military aid.
Russian Ministry of Defense Weekly Briefing Highlights: MoD Russia shares a "Top News Today" brief highlighting key Russian military activities from May 10-16, 2025. This includes:
- Russian Defense Minister Belousov's visit to Belarus.
- Claimed liberation of Volnoye Pole (Donetsk People's Republic) by the "Vostok" group of forces.
- Six group strikes by high-precision weaponry and strike UAVs against Ukrainian defense industry (Neptune components, USVs), military airfields, repair workshops, UAV/USV storage and training areas, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian formations and foreign mercenaries.
- Showcasing of "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery systems, "Grad" MLRS, "Orlan-10," and "Geran-2" UAVs.
- A photo montage of various military scenes. This brief serves as a summary of claimed Russian military successes and activities over the past week and is a form of strategic communication.
Continued Unrest in Tripoli, Libya: ТАСС reports that forces loyal to the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Libya opened fire on protesters in Tripoli, injuring several people, according to Al Marsad. This indicates ongoing instability in Libya, which is a separate but relevant geopolitical event.
Ukrainian Commentary and Footage on 63rd Brigade's Withdrawal: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captioned "63rd brigade, exit. The guys are alive. F*ing handsome." and later shares a commentary comparing soft people blocking roads in Odesa due to power outages with soldiers barely surviving, illustrating the realities of war.** The video likely shows Ukrainian soldiers withdrawing or rotating, and the commentary emphasizes the sacrifices of military personnel compared to civilian hardships. This highlights the human element of the conflict and potentially serves as a morale-boosting message.
Propaganda Message Highlighting Russian Strength: Два майора shares a photo with the text "WELCOME TO THE FIRST HUNGER GAMES!!!" The image also includes "Major's кОртиZол" and a stylized "Z" symbol. This is a propaganda message, likely referencing the popular "Hunger Games" franchise, attempting to frame the conflict in a narrative of struggle and potentially strength or resilience. The use of the "Z" symbol and "Major's кОртиZол" links it to Russian military bloggers and pro-war sentiment.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Mykhailivka, Mirolyubivka, Volnoye Pole, Kurakhovo, Bogdanovka, Alexeevka, Kutkovka, Podoly, Dzerzhynsk direction - Aleksandropol, Zarya, Romanovka, Novaya Poltavka, Dylyiivka, Pokrovsko-Myrnohrad direction - Myrnohrad, Novoekonomicheskoye): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims the liberation of Mykhailivka and a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area after the surrender of Mirolyubivka. MoD Russia claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole by the "Vostok" group of forces. Воин DV reports Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions on the South-Donetsk direction, including in the areas of Kutkovka and Podoly. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks) in the area of Kutkovka and Podoly on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. Сливочный каприз reports combat operations in the Kurakhovo area, claiming Russian advances on the Bogdanovka - Alexeevka line. Рыбарь reports that Russian troops on the Dzerzhynsk direction are trying to clear the "pocket" at the Aleksandropol — Zarya — Romanovka line and are fighting for Novaya Poltavka and on the approaches to Dylyiivka. Рыбарь reports that on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, Russian troops continued to develop the offensive east of Myrnohrad and finally liberated Myrolyubivka, thereby opening the gates to Novoekonomicheskoye. These reports, primarily from Russian sources, claim significant tactical and operational successes for Russian forces in multiple areas of Donetsk Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Remains an area of focus with reported Ukrainian activity.
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity.
Turkey (Istanbul): Continues to be the location for diplomatic negotiations, although the timing and progress remain uncertain. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the detailed Russian demands reportedly voiced in Istanbul.
Russia: Internal issues, including the health of political prisoners and efforts to shape historical narratives, continue to be reported. Military briefings highlight claimed successes and activities over the past week. Propaganda efforts are ongoing. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov. ТАСС reports on new history textbooks. МоD Russia shares a "Top News Today" brief. Два майора shares a propaganda message.
Novosibirsk (Russia): Север.Реалии reports that Alexei Gorinov is currently in a pre-trial detention center here and has been found to have foci of tuberculosis. This is a new specific location mentioned in relation to an internal Russian issue.
Libya (Tripoli): ТАСС reports on ongoing unrest and violence with forces loyal to the GNU opening fire on protesters, causing injuries. This indicates continued instability in Libya.
Ukraine: Focus on diplomatic efforts in Istanbul, countering Russian military actions, and addressing the human cost of the conflict. Seeking continued international support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the detailed Russian demands reportedly voiced in Istanbul. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares commentary and footage related to Ukrainian soldiers.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the cancellation of an air raid alert, highlighting the continued risk of aerial threats to this region.
Crimea (Perevalnoye): Рыбарь reports that Ukrainian formations conducted a massive raid on the Republic of Crimea, striking a munitions depot in Perevalnoye with drones. This indicates Ukrainian capability to strike targets in occupied Crimea.
Kiev Oblast: Рыбарь reports that Russian forces struck targets in Kiev Oblast. This indicates Russian capability to strike targets deeper within Ukraine.
Belarus: MoD Russia highlights Russian Defense Minister Belousov's visit to Belarus, indicating continued military cooperation between the two countries.
Luhansk (occupied): Оперативний ЗСУ and Colonelcassad and Басурин о главном previously reported a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk direction - Kutkovka, Podoly): Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the area of Kutkovka and Podoly on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. MoD Russia shares a video claiming a Ukrainian AFU MaxxPro armored vehicle hit a mine barrier in the Kharkiv region. These reports indicate ongoing military activity and contested areas in Kharkiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi district, Synelnykivskyi district): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) previously reported Russian attacks on Nikopolskyi and Synelnykivskyi districts.
Southern Donetsk Direction (Volnoye Pole, Kutkovka, Podoly): MoD Russia claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole by the "Vostok" group of forces. Воин DV reports Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions on the South-Donetsk direction, including in the areas of Kutkovka and Podoly. These reports indicate continued intense fighting in this area.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Russian forces are utilizing drones for reconnaissance and strike purposes and are claiming advancements in their "Geran" drone capabilities and efforts to counter Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian forces are also using drones for reconnaissance and targeting. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. Рыбарь reports that Ukrainian formations conducted a massive raid on the Republic of Crimea, striking a munitions depot in Perevalnoye with drones. MoD Russia showcases "Orlan-10" and "Geran-2" UAVs in their weekly brief. Два майора shares detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones. Alex Parker Returns shares research claiming increased effectiveness of "Geran" drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian soldier self-liquidated after feeling the hopelessness of his situation, and was finished off by a drone drop. This is a specific tactical event involving drone use. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Russian MLRS "Grad" working on Ukrainian positions and personnel accumulation areas on the Zaporizhzhia direction near Orekhiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion on the Lyman direction using a "Leleka-100" UAV for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, Crimea, and advises residents to follow civil defense instructions and not film air defense activity. The alert was later reported as canceled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, excluding Zaporizhzhia city. This indicates a potential aerial threat to this region. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. This highlights the continued need for equipment for Russian forces in this area and the reliance on public fundraising, while also confirming increased Ukrainian activity on the Kursk direction. «Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message aimed at reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength, capability, and defensive posture. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims to have found new facts about alleged Ukrainian trading of Western weapons on the black market.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation continues to employ guided aerial bombs on frontline areas and border regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. MoD Russia claims downing 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Воин DV shares a video claiming bombardment aviation of the 11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the "Vostok" group of forces struck AFU positions on the South-Donetsk direction. This indicates continued use of air-launched munitions, likely including KABs, in support of ground operations.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes with guided and unguided aerial bombs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Воин DV shares a video claiming bombardment aviation of the 11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the "Vostok" group of forces struck AFU positions on the South-Donetsk direction. This indicates continued use of air-launched munitions, likely including KABs, in support of ground operations.
Naval Activity: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This suggests potential future Russian naval activity originating from this area.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats, including drones and guided aerial bombs. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, Crimea, indicating potential air defense activity in response to a threat. The alert was later canceled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, excluding Zaporizhzhia city, also indicating potential air defense activity. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire and MLRS use by both sides. Ukrainian forces reportedly damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion on the Lyman direction. Russian forces are using MLRS "Grad" on the Zaporizhzhia direction. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery system on the Lyman direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Russian MLRS "Grad" working on Ukrainian positions and personnel accumulation areas on the Zaporizhzhia direction near Orekhiv. Воин DV shares a video claiming that an "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery position on the South-Donetsk direction. This indicates continued Russian counter-battery fire efforts in this area and highlights the claimed effectiveness of their artillery systems. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. This highlights the continued need for equipment for Russian forces in this area and the reliance on public fundraising, while also confirming increased Ukrainian activity on the Kursk direction.
Anti-Personnel Mines: Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction (reported previously). MoD Russia shares a video claiming a Ukrainian AFU MaxxPro armored vehicle hit a mine barrier in the Kharkiv region, highlighting the use of mine warfare.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: The conclusion of initial talks in Istanbul without a ceasefire highlights a significant strategic gap. Discussions continue with the potential involvement of international actors. Ukraine emphasizes its conditions for talks (ceasefire) and links further action to Russian behavior and potential sanctions. Russia maintains clear preconditions, including the recognition of annexed territories. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the detailed Russian demands reportedly voiced by the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, in Istanbul. These demands include: 1) Neutral Ukraine with no foreign troops or weapons of mass destruction, 2) Mutual refusal of reparations, 3) Ukraine to adopt European standards for minority rights and end "nationalist propaganda," 4) Ukraine to recognize Russia's constitutional claims on five regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea) and seek their international recognition, and 5) Ukrainian forces to withdraw from all five claimed territories as a condition for an immediate ceasefire. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны notes that Russian sources have not yet confirmed this, but Western media are publishing it. Оперативний ЗСУ comments on the "unrealistic nature of the demands." РБК-Україна also highlights the demands and includes a photo of the negotiation table. НгП раZVедка comments on Medinsky's perceived toughness in relation to Trump's absence. These reports are highly significant as they provide a detailed public outline of Russia's preconditions for a potential peace settlement, clearly indicating a demand for significant territorial and strategic concessions from Ukraine. ТАСС reports that a Turkish official told CNN that the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul were more positive than expected, and that a prisoner exchange was proposed when discussions seemed to be at a "dead end." This provides a Turkish perspective on the negotiations, highlighting a potential area of limited agreement (prisoner exchange) despite the lack of a broader ceasefire. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares information from a European media outlet (The Economist) that on the negotiations, Russia demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from all four oblasts and threatened to take (liberate) two more oblasts (Kharkiv and Sumy). The report also includes a quote attributed to Medinsky, asking how long Ukraine is willing to fight, referencing the 21-year war with Sweden. This reinforces the Russian narrative of territorial demands and suggests a long-term commitment to military objectives. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that the Ukrainian delegation expects a response from the Russians "in the next few hours" to the requests made during the Istanbul talks. He also stated that after this, European allies will hold further negotiations with Trump. Macron added that they continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received. He also stated that President Trump intends to organize an exchange of views with the Russian side in the next few hours or days to clarify what happened and try to move forward, and that telephone contacts with Putin are possible first. РБК-Україна also shares an article titled "All for Trump. Why the negotiations in Istanbul did not bring the end of the war closer," suggesting a focus on Trump's role and a critical view of the negotiation outcome. РБК-Україна shares a column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief, asking about the goals of Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, who in Trump's team understands the real situation, and who holds the key to breaking the negotiation deadlock. РБК-Україна also reports Macron's statement that Trump will organize an exchange of views with the Russians to clarify what happened in Istanbul. This confirms ongoing diplomatic efforts and the continued, potentially significant, role of former US President Trump in discussions about the conflict and its resolution, as well as the coordinated approach between European allies and the US regarding potential further sanctions.
International Support for Ukraine: International partners continue to discuss and implement further sanctions. The potential for increased sanctions in coordination with the US is being discussed by European allies. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that European allies continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received from Russia regarding the requests made during the Istanbul talks. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") specifically aimed at purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, highlighting continued civilian-led support for military procurement. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific types of equipment for Russian forces and provide insight into the needs of units on the ground. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. This highlights the continued need for equipment for Russian forces in this area and the reliance on public fundraising, while also confirming increased Ukrainian activity on the Kursk direction. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report that US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the US will begin discussing the possibility of reducing its troops in Europe after the NATO summit in The Hague in June, somewhere later this year. This is a significant geopolitical development regarding the US military posture in Europe and could have implications for NATO's collective defense and burden-sharing among allies.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct negotiations in Istanbul concluded without a ceasefire. Ukraine is awaiting a response to its requests. Russia is reportedly demanding withdrawal from annexed territories and threatening to take more. A prisoner exchange was proposed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the detailed Russian demands reportedly voiced by the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, in Istanbul. These demands are highly significant as they provide a detailed public outline of Russia's preconditions for a potential peace settlement. ТАСС reports that a Turkish official told CNN that the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul were more positive than expected, and that a prisoner exchange was proposed when discussions seemed to be at a "dead end." This provides a Turkish perspective on the negotiations, highlighting a potential area of limited agreement (prisoner exchange) despite the lack of a broader ceasefire. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares information from a European media outlet (The Economist) that on the negotiations, Russia demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from all four oblasts and threatened to take (liberate) two more oblasts (Kharkiv and Sumy). The report also includes a quote attributed to Medinsky, asking how long Ukraine is willing to fight, referencing the 21-year war with Sweden. This reinforces the Russian narrative of territorial demands and suggests a long-term commitment to military objectives. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that the Ukrainian delegation expects a response from the Russians "in the next few hours" to the requests made during the Istanbul talks. He also stated that after this, European allies will hold further negotiations with Trump. Macron added that they continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received. He also stated that President Trump intends to organize an exchange of views with the Russian side in the next few hours or days to clarify what happened and try to move forward, and that telephone contacts with Putin are possible first. РБК-Україна also shares an article titled "All for Trump. Why the negotiations in Istanbul did not bring the end of the war closer," suggesting a focus on Trump's role and a critical view of the negotiation outcome. РБК-Україна shares a column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief, asking about the goals of Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, who in Trump's team understands the real situation, and who holds the key to breaking the negotiation deadlock. РБК-Україна also reports Macron's statement that Trump will organize an exchange of views with the Russians to clarify what happened in Istanbul. This confirms ongoing diplomatic efforts and the continued, potentially significant, role of former US President Trump in discussions about the conflict and its resolution.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Ukraine is awaiting a response to its requests from Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares commentary and footage related to Ukrainian soldiers, potentially addressing internal morale and public perception. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") specifically aimed at purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, highlighting continued civilian-led support for military procurement.
Internal Russian Issues: Internal security concerns are highlighted with an arrest in St. Petersburg and reports on the health of political prisoners. Fundraising for military equipment continues, suggesting a reliance on public support. Claims of civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast highlight the impact of the conflict on Russian border regions. Russian sources are highlighting claimed advancements in drone technology and claiming high rates of downing Ukrainian aerial assets. Russian propaganda is promoting narratives of strength and military capability and shaping historical narratives. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov. ASTRA reports a legal development in St. Petersburg with the arrest of a student accused of calling for terrorism. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific types of equipment for Russian forces and provide insight into the needs of units on the ground. ASTRA reports a significant claim from the governor of Belgorod Oblast regarding civilian casualties in the region since 2022 due to alleged Ukrainian attacks. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment. «Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength. ТАСС reports on new history textbooks being developed for Russian schools.
Syria's Economic and Diplomatic Shift: РБК-Україна reports, citing Reuters, that Syria is reportedly refusing to print currency in Russia and has found other partners in the UAE and Germany. This is a significant geopolitical development with implications for Russia's influence and financial ties in the Middle East.
Afghanistan's Call for Russian Investment: Alex Parker Returns reports that the Taliban Prime Minister has called on Russian businesses to invest in Afghanistan, particularly in infrastructure, on a non-reimbursable basis, citing Russia's "historical guilt." This is a geopolitical development relevant to Russia's international engagement and potential resource allocation.
Engagement with Former US President Trump: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that European allies will hold further negotiations with Trump after the Ukrainian delegation receives a response from Russia. He also stated that President Trump intends to organize an exchange of views with the Russian side in the next few hours or days to clarify what happened and try to move forward, and that telephone contacts with Putin are possible first. РБК-Україна also shares an article titled "All for Trump. Why the negotiations in Istanbul did not bring the end of the war closer," and a column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief, discussing who in Trump's team understands the real situation, and who holds the key to breaking the negotiation deadlock. This confirms the continued, potentially significant, role of former US President Trump in discussions about the conflict and its resolution.
NATO Military Exercises: Два майора reports a truck rollover incident involving a French military convoy during NATO exercises in Romania, resulting in injuries to two French soldiers. This indicates NATO military activity and logistical challenges in the region.
Unrest in Libya: ТАСС reports on ongoing unrest and violence in Tripoli, Libya, with forces loyal to the GNU opening fire on protesters. This is a separate but relevant geopolitical development indicating instability in another region.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: ASTRA reports a legal development in St. Petersburg with the arrest of a student accused of calling for terrorism. This highlights internal security concerns and legal actions against individuals accused of extremist views. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov, a former Moscow municipal deputy convicted in cases of "fakes" about the army and justifying terrorism, highlighting concerns about political prisoners.
Casualties: ASTRA reports a significant claim from the governor of Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, regarding civilian casualties in the region since 2022 due to alleged Ukrainian attacks, stating that more than 320 people have died and more than 2500 residents have been injured. This is a significant claim regarding the human cost of the conflict on the civilian population in a Russian border region. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian soldier self-liquidated after feeling the hopelessness of his situation, and was finished off by a drone drop, highlighting potential Russian casualties.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces continue intense ground assaults across multiple directions, utilizing artillery (MLRS "Grad," SAU "Msta-S"), guided bombs, and a high volume of drones ("Geran," "Yolka"). Claiming significant advances in numerous settlements on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction and the liberation of Mirolyubovka and Volnoye Pole. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks) and inflicting losses. Employing tactical aviation. Russian sources are highlighting claimed advancements and dominance in "Geran" and "Yolka" drone technology and claiming high rates of downing Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for forces on the Kursk front. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Russian forces claim advances and territorial control. Messages on Russian drones explicitly reject a truce (reported previously). Updated operational maps provide visual details on Russian positions. Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personal mines on the Sumy direction, which Russian forces will need to counter (reported previously). Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes, HIMARS strikes, and FPV drone use in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). New reports indicate Russian drone activity towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts (reported previously). Russian military bloggers are claiming successes in eliminating Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk using FPV drones (reported previously). Expanding drone activity to include Kirovohrad Oblast and with some drones moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). A new air alert has been issued for Vinnytsia Oblast due to the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south, confirming the expanded area of operations for these systems (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV activity in the southern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, moving northwest/west (reported previously). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims the liberation of Mykhailivka and a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area after the surrender of Mirolyubivka. MoD Russia claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole by the "Vostok" group of forces. Воин DV shares a video claiming that an "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery position on the South-Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks) in the area of Kutkovka and Podoly on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. Сливочный каприз reports combat operations in the Kurakhovo area, claiming Russian advances on the Bogdanovka - Alexeevka line. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific types of equipment for Russian forces and provide insight into the needs of units on the ground. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Russian MLRS "Grad" working on Ukrainian positions and personnel accumulation areas on the Zaporizhzhia direction near Orekhiv. This indicates continued Russian artillery fire. Рыбарь reports that on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, Russian troops finally liberated Myrolyubivka, thereby opening the gates to Novoekonomicheskoye, suggesting continued offensive actions and territorial gains. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This suggests potential future Russian naval tactics. МоD Russia shares a "Top News Today" brief highlighting claimed liberation of Volnoye Pole and strikes against Ukrainian defense industry and military targets. «Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message aimed at reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength, capability, and defensive posture. Рыбарь reports that Russian troops on the Dzerzhynsk direction are trying to clear the "pocket" at the Aleksandropol — Zarya — Romanovka line and are fighting for Novaya Poltavka and on the approaches to Dylyiivka.
Information Operations: Russian sources continue to engage in information operations, framing events to support their narrative. This includes highlighting claimed advancements in drone technology, claims of downing Ukrainian aerial assets, claims of territorial gains, and propaganda messages reinforcing narratives of strength. Russian military bloggers are using fundraising efforts as a platform for information operations, highlighting the needs of their forces and potentially promoting specific units or directions. Russian sources are also attempting to shape historical narratives presented to younger generations. МоD Russia shares a graphic claiming significant numbers of Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs shot down, serving as information operation to showcase effectiveness. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones, serving as information operation to showcase technological superiority. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone, promoting a new counter-drone technology. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front, framed within a narrative of resisting Ukrainian activation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a Russian claim about negotiation demands, likely to reinforce a narrative of Russian objectives. «Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength. ТАСС reports on new history textbooks being developed for Russian schools, indicating a strategic effort to shape historical narratives. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims the liberation of Mykhailivka, which is a clear information operation to highlight claimed territorial gains. MoD Russia claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole and shares a weekly brief highlighting claimed successes, which is a form of strategic communication. Воин DV shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position, serving as propaganda to showcase military effectiveness. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment on the Kupyansk direction, serving as propaganda. Сливочный каприз reports combat operations and claimed Russian advances, which is a form of military blogging and information dissemination. Рыбарь reports on Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian counter-strikes, and also reports on claimed Russian advances, serving as a source of information from a pro-Russian perspective. Два майора shares a propaganda message using the "Hunger Games" reference. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims to have found new facts about alleged Ukrainian trading of Western weapons on the black market, which is a Russian information operation.
Support for Military Personnel: Reliance on public and potentially corporate support for equipment continues, as evidenced by fundraising appeals for drones and armor kits. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment. These appeals highlight the continued need for external support.
Social Issues: ASTRA reports a legal development in St. Petersburg with the arrest of a student accused of calling for terrorism. This highlights internal social and political tensions. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov, a former Moscow municipal deputy, highlighting concerns about political prisoners and potentially the conditions within detention facilities.
Shaping Historical Narratives: ТАСС reports on new history textbooks being developed for grades 5-9 in Russian schools that will use a parallel approach to the history of Russia and the world. This indicates a strategic effort to shape the historical narrative presented to younger generations, likely to align with current state ideology.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties reported due to alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on infrastructure in Luhansk (previously). ASTRA reports a significant claim from the governor of Belgorod Oblast regarding civilian casualties in the region since 2022 due to alleged Ukrainian attacks, stating that more than 320 people have died and more than 2500 residents have been injured. This highlights the impact of the conflict on civilian populations in Russian border regions. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov, highlighting concerns about the well-being of political prisoners.
Military Support (Ukraine): International partners continue to discuss and implement further sanctions. The potential for increased sanctions in coordination with the US is being discussed by European allies. Ukraine is utilizing UAVs for reconnaissance and targeting, including potentially high-value Russian artillery systems. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that European allies continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received from Russia regarding the requests made during the Istanbul talks. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") specifically aimed at purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, highlighting significant civilian-led support for military procurement. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery system on the Lyman direction.
Military Support (Russia): Reliance on public and potentially corporate support for equipment continues, as evidenced by fundraising appeals for drones and armor kits. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on external support. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a drone repair workshop, highlighting logistical support for drone operations.
Support for Families: ASTRA reports a significant claim from the governor of Belgorod Oblast regarding civilian casualties, which impacts families in the region.
Rehabilitation: A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses rehabilitation services for veterans (previously).
Veteran Support Issues (Russia): TASS reports the State Duma adopted a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans.
Support for Ukrainian POWs and Families: TASS reports that a Turkish official told CNN that a prisoner exchange was proposed during the Istanbul negotiations, highlighting this as a potential area of limited agreement.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, utilizing artillery (MLRS "Grad," SAU "Msta-S"), guided bombs, and a high volume of drones ("Geran," "Yolka," "Orlan-10"). Claiming significant advances in numerous settlements on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), South-Donetsk, and Pokrovsko-Myrnohrad directions, including the liberation of Mirolyubovka and Volnoye Pole, and Mykhailivka. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks, armored vehicles) and inflicting losses. Employing tactical aviation. Russian sources are highlighting claimed advancements and dominance in "Geran" and "Yolka" drone technology and claiming high rates of downing Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for forces on the Kursk front. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Russian forces claim advances and territorial control. Messages on Russian drones explicitly reject a truce (reported previously). Updated operational maps provide visual details on Russian positions. Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personal mines on the Sumy direction, which Russian forces will need to counter (reported previously). Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes, HIMARS strikes, and FPV drone use in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). New reports indicate Russian drone activity towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts (reported previously). Russian military bloggers are claiming successes in eliminating Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk using FPV drones (reported previously). Expanding drone activity to include Kirovohrad Oblast and with some drones moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). A new air alert has been issued for Vinnytsia Oblast due to the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south, confirming the expanded area of operations for these systems (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV activity in the southern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, moving northwest/west (reported previously). Russian forces are reportedly using motorcycle assaults (reported previously). Using mine warfare, potentially with robotic systems. Conducting mechanized column attacks. Russian infantry in Bogatyr are reportedly using motorcycles. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims the liberation of Mykhailivka and a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area after the surrender of Mirolyubivka. MoD Russia claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole by the "Vostok" group of forces. Воин DV shares a video claiming that an "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery position on the South-Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks) in the area of Kutkovka and Podoly on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. Сливочный каприз reports combat operations in the Kurakhovo area, claiming Russian advances on the Bogdanovka - Alexeevka line and reporting a Russian mechanized column attack. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific types of equipment for Russian forces and provide insight into the needs of units on the ground. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Russian MLRS "Grad" working on Ukrainian positions and personnel accumulation areas on the Zaporizhzhia direction near Orekhiv. This indicates continued Russian artillery fire. Рыбарь reports that on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, Russian troops finally liberated Myrolyubivka, thereby opening the gates to Novoekonomicheskoye, suggesting continued offensive actions and territorial gains. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This suggests potential future Russian naval tactics. МоD Russia shares a "Top News Today" brief highlighting claimed liberation of Volnoye Pole, strikes against Ukrainian defense industry and military targets, and showcasing military assets. «Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message aimed at reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength, capability, and defensive posture. Рыбарь reports that Russian troops on the Dzerzhynsk direction are trying to clear the "pocket" at the Aleksandropol — Zarya — Romanovka line and are fighting for Novaya Poltavka and on the approaches to Dylyiivka. MoD Russia shares a video claiming a Ukrainian AFU MaxxPro armored vehicle hit a mine barrier in the Kharkiv region set up by the "Zapad" group of forces using the "Miner" robotic system, highlighting the use of mine warfare and potentially robotic systems. Сливочный каприз shares a map and analysis of active combat near Krasnoarmeysk - Novosergeevka, reporting a Russian mechanized column attack. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports on Russian infantry in Bogatyr often using motorcycles.
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses (personnel, equipment, air defense systems, boats). Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions and Crimea. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces (reported previously). Utilizing maritime drones (reported previously). Seeking international support and military aid. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling. Claiming destruction of Russian equipment, including air defense systems and boats (reported previously). Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups in Zaporizhzhia using SDB bombs (reported previously). Ukraine has excluded Lieutenant General Havryliuk from the Stavka (reported previously). Ukraine is receiving significant military aid from the EU and the US (Patriot and HIMARS missiles) (reported previously). Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction (reported previously). Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes and HIMARS use in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Claims of a Polish mercenary fighting on the Ukrainian side in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Facing ongoing Russian drone attacks towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts (reported previously). Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk is reportedly being targeted and destroyed by Russian FPV drones (reported previously). Facing expanded Russian drone activity in Kirovohrad Oblast and with some drones heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). Now facing a confirmed threat of enemy strike UAVs in Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV activity in the southern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, moving northwest/west (reported previously). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares commentary and footage related to Ukrainian soldiers, including a potential withdrawal or rotation of the 63rd brigade. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") specifically aimed at purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, highlighting significant civilian-led support for military procurement and the importance of drones in Ukrainian tactics. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery system on the Lyman direction using a "Leleka-100" UAV for reconnaissance and targeting. This highlights Ukrainian counter-battery fire efforts and the use of specific UAVs. Рыбарь reports that Ukrainian formations conducted a massive raid on the Republic of Crimea, striking a munitions depot in Perevalnoye with drones. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This highlights Ukrainian intelligence gathering and reporting on potential Russian naval tactics. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian soldier self-liquidated after feeling the hopelessness of his situation, and was finished off by a drone drop, highlighting Ukrainian drone effectiveness. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims to have found new facts about alleged Ukrainian trading of Western weapons on the black market.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation (reported previously). Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are providing military aid to Ukraine. The Czech Republic is cooperating with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). The UN is involved (reported previously). The EU is discussing further sanctions. France has commented on Russia's stance (reported previously). Sweden and other Nordic/Baltic countries have issued a joint statement (reported previously). Finland and Estonia are mentioned in Russian information operations (reported previously). Bulgaria and Denmark are providing military and financial support and coordinating diplomatic efforts (reported previously). Poland has commented on the Istanbul talks and coordination with Trump (reported previously). The Netherlands is increasing its defense assistance to Ukraine (reported previously). Montenegro is strengthening cooperation and discussing EU integration (reported previously). Pope Leo XIV has offered mediation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all share the detailed Russian demands reportedly voiced by the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, in Istanbul. These demands are being reported by Ukrainian and Western sources and commented on by Russian military bloggers. ТАСС reports that a Turkish official told CNN that the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul were more positive than expected. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that European allies will hold further negotiations with Trump after the Ukrainian delegation receives a response from Russia. Macron added that they continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received from Russia. Macron also stated that President Trump intends to organize an exchange of views with the Russian side in the next few hours or days to clarify what happened and try to move forward, and that telephone contacts with Putin are possible first. РБК-Україна also shares an article titled "All for Trump. Why the negotiations in Istanbul did not bring the end of the war closer," and a column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief, discussing who in Trump's team understands the real situation, and who holds the key to breaking the negotiation deadlock. This confirms the continued, potentially significant, role of former US President Trump in discussions about the conflict and its resolution, and the coordinated approach between European allies and the US regarding potential further sanctions. Два майора reports a truck rollover incident involving a French military convoy during NATO exercises in Romania. This indicates NATO military activity and logistical challenges in the region. РБК-Україна reports, citing Reuters, that the new Syrian authorities are reportedly refusing to print currency in Russia and has found other partners in the UAE and Germany. This is a significant geopolitical development impacting Russia's international relations. Alex Parker Returns reports that the Taliban Prime Minister has called on Russian businesses to invest in Afghanistan, highlighting another instance of Russia's international engagement. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report that US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the US will begin discussing the possibility of reducing its troops in Europe after the NATO summit in The Hague in June, somewhere later this year. This is a significant geopolitical development regarding the US military posture in Europe and could have implications for NATO's collective defense and burden-sharing among allies.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides (strike, reconnaissance, FPV, "Geran," "Yolka," "Orlan-10," "Leleka-100"). Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery (MLRS "Grad," SAU "Msta-S," 2S7 Pion), and potentially robotic systems in mine warfare. Use of boats for sabotage and reconnaissance (previously). Potential use of ATVs by Ukrainian infantry (targeted by Russian drones, previously). Russian forces are claiming advancements in "Geran" and "Yolka" drone technology and are claiming high rates of downing Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Ukrainian forces reportedly damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion. Russian forces are reportedly developing a new counter-drone kinetic interceptor drone ("Yolka"). Russian forces are reportedly using motorcycle assaults (reported previously). Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction (reported previously). Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes and HIMARS use in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Claims of a Polish mercenary fighting on the Ukrainian side in Kursk Oblast (reported previously). New reports indicate Russian drone activity towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts (reported previously). Russian military bloggers are claiming successes in eliminating Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk using FPV drones (reported previously). Expanding drone activity to include Kirovohrad Oblast and with some drones moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast (reported previously). A new air alert has been issued for Vinnytsia Oblast due to the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the south, confirming the expanded area of operations for these systems (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts (reported previously). Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV activity in the southern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, moving northwest/west (reported previously). Russian forces are using mechanized columns. Russian infantry in Bogatyr are reportedly using motorcycles. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") specifically aimed at purchasing FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, highlighting significant civilian-led support for military procurement and the importance of FPV drones in Ukrainian tactics. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery system on the Lyman direction using a "Leleka-100" UAV for reconnaissance and targeting. This highlights Ukrainian counter-battery fire tactics and the use of specific UAVs. MoD Russia claims downing 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past week. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is appealing for donations to purchase a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Два майора is also promoting a fundraising effort called "Frontline Armor" to collect steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. These appeals highlight the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific types of equipment for Russian forces and provide insight into the needs of units on the ground, including armored vehicles and drones. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Russian MLRS "Grad" working on Ukrainian positions and personnel accumulation areas on the Zaporizhzhia direction near Orekhiv. This indicates continued Russian artillery fire. Рыбарь reports that Ukrainian formations conducted a massive raid on the Republic of Crimea, striking a munitions depot in Perevalnoye with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This suggests potential future Russian naval tactics involving USVs. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian soldier self-liquidated after feeling the hopelessness of his situation, and was finished off by a drone drop, highlighting Ukrainian drone effectiveness in eliminating personnel. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims to have found new facts about alleged Ukrainian trading of Western weapons on the black market. MoD Russia shares a video claiming a Ukrainian AFU MaxxPro armored vehicle hit a mine barrier in the Kharkiv region set up by the "Zapad" group of forces using the "Miner" robotic system, highlighting the use of mine warfare and potentially robotic systems. Воин DV shares a video claiming that an "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery position on the South-Donetsk direction, highlighting counter-battery fire. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment (mortar, tanks) on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones. Сливочный каприз shares a map and analysis of active combat near Krasnoarmeysk - Novosergeevka, reporting a Russian mechanized column attack. MoD Russia showcases "Msta-S" self-propelled artillery systems, "Grad" MLRS, "Orlan-10," and "Geran-2" UAVs in their weekly brief. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports on Russian infantry in Bogatyr often using motorcycles. Два майора shares a propaganda message using the "Hunger Games" reference.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued high tempo of combat engagements across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, underscores the strategic importance of this area and indicates Russia's continued commitment to offensive operations aimed at territorial gains. The detailed reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources provide granular information on the areas of most intense fighting and claimed advances, which is critical for understanding the evolving front lines and allocating resources strategically. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claiming the liberation of Mykhailivka and a Ukrainian withdrawal from the area, MoD Russia claiming the liberation of Volnoye Pole, and Сливочный каприз reporting Russian advances on the Bogdanovka - Alexeevka line and a mechanized column attack all indicate continued strategic focus and claimed successes in Donetsk Oblast. Рыбарь reports on Russian efforts to clear a pocket on the Dzerzhynsk direction and the liberation of Myrolyubivka on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, which would open the way to Novoekonomicheskoye, indicating strategic goals of gaining territory and disrupting Ukrainian positions.
The publicly revealed Russian demands in Istanbul, as reported by multiple Ukrainian and Western sources, represent a significant strategic development. These demands, particularly the requirement for Ukraine to recognize Russia's constitutional claims on five regions and withdraw its forces from these territories, clearly outline Russia's minimal conditions for a peace settlement. These demands indicate a Russian strategic objective of solidifying territorial gains and establishing a neutral, less Western-aligned Ukraine. The "unrealistic nature" of these demands, as commented on by Ukrainian sources, suggests a significant strategic gap that will be challenging to bridge in negotiations.
The persistent Russian activity in the Kursk border region, including heavy shelling and aviation strikes, suggests continued efforts to pressure Ukrainian defenses, potentially fix Ukrainian forces in this area, or conduct shaping operations for potential future actions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русская Весна is appealing for donations for fighters on the Kursk front who need drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and other equipment due to the enemy's (Ukrainian) activation. This confirms increased Ukrainian military activity in this border region and highlights its strategic importance for both sides.
The divergent stances on the sequencing of a ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine/Western partners and Russia remain a fundamental strategic impasse. Russia's explicit preconditions, including the recognition of annexed territories and threatening to take more, are a major hurdle. Ukraine's emphasis on a ceasefire first and its readiness to meet with Putin in Turkey, while calling for increased sanctions if Russia is unwilling to engage, outline its strategic approach to a potential diplomatic resolution. The involvement of various international actors, including the US and European allies, in discussing negotiation frameworks and sanctions underscores the international dimension of the conflict and the differing priorities of the involved parties. The potential for European allies to hold further negotiations with former US President Trump regarding the Istanbul talks and potential further sanctions, as reported by Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна, indicates the continued, potentially significant, role of Trump in discussions about the conflict and its resolution, and the coordinated strategic approach between European allies and the US regarding diplomatic and economic pressure. РБК-Україна also shares an article titled "All for Trump. Why the negotiations in Istanbul did not bring the end of the war closer," and a column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief, discussing the goals in Istanbul, Trump's team's understanding of the situation, and who holds the key to breaking the negotiation deadlock, highlighting strategic discussions about the path forward. ТАСС reports that a Turkish official's positive assessment of the Istanbul negotiations and the proposal of a prisoner exchange highlights a potential area of limited agreement despite the lack of a broader ceasefire and underscores Turkey's facilitating strategic role. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 sharing information from a European media outlet (The Economist) about Russia's negotiation demands (withdrawal from four oblasts, threat to take two more) and a quote attributed to Medinsky about willingness to fight for years, reinforces the Russian strategic narrative of territorial demands and long-term commitment to military objectives, and suggests their approach to negotiations is closely tied to their military goals. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна all sharing the detailed Russian demands in Istanbul reinforces the strategic importance of these conditions. НгП раZVедка commenting on Medinsky's perceived toughness in relation to Trump's absence is a strategic communication effort within the Russian information space.
The large-scale Russian drone attacks and the expansion of their operational area to include Kirovohrad and Vinnytsia Oblasts (reported previously) suggest a strategic shift to target a wider range of infrastructure or create pressure in new areas further west. This requires Ukraine to adapt its air defense strategies and potentially disperse assets. The development of new Russian drone technology, such as the "Tyuvik" and "Vobla" drones (reported previously), and the claimed advancements and dominance in "Geran" drones, along with the reported development of a new "Yolka" counter-drone kinetic interceptor drone, indicates continued investment in asymmetric warfare capabilities and counter-capabilities. Ukraine's success in downing Russian reconnaissance drones and destroying valuable military assets like SAM and MLRS systems (reported previously), and the claimed damage to a Russian 2S7 Pion, highlights its counter-capabilities in this domain. MoD Russia sharing a graphic claiming that 930 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs and 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs were shot down by Russian air defense systems over the past week, while potentially exaggerated for propaganda, highlights the strategic importance of countering Ukrainian aerial and missile capabilities for force protection and air defense. STERNENKO promoting a fundraising initiative ("RUSORIZ") with a goal of buying at least 300 FPV drones per day highlights the strategic importance of FPV drones for Ukraine and the reliance on civilian support for their acquisition. Два майора and Colonelcassad share detailed claims regarding technological advancements and dominance of Russian "Geran" drones indicates a strategic focus on improving drone capabilities and is part of their information operation to showcase technological superiority. Два майора shares a video and detailed description of a Russian "Yolka" (Fir Tree) anti-UAV kinetic interceptor drone. This is a significant claim about a new Russian counter-drone technology and its capabilities, with strategic implications for countering Ukrainian drone tactics. Рыбарь reports that Ukrainian formations conducted a massive raid on the Republic of Crimea, striking a munitions depot in Perevalnoye with drones. This highlights Ukraine's strategic capability to target Russian military infrastructure in occupied territory using drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports, citing the Ukrainian underground in Mykolaiv, on the preparation of vessels for a "counteroffensive" in the areas of Kutsurub and Ochakiv, including the accumulation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs), for attacks on Crimea. This suggests potential future Russian naval tactics with strategic implications for the southern front and maritime security, including the use of USVs for offensive operations. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian soldier self-liquidated after feeling the hopelessness of his situation, and was finished off by a drone drop, strategically highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations against personnel. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian equipment on the Kupyansk direction using FPV drones, which serves as strategic communication highlighting the effectiveness of Russian drones.
Internal Russian issues, such as the digitalization of military registration (reported previously), measures to support veterans (reported previously), the crackdown on dissent, political appointments (reported previously), and natural disasters (reported previously), while domestic, can have strategic implications. The digital conscription system could streamline mobilization efforts, potentially increasing the availability of personnel for the conflict. Measures to support veterans are likely aimed at maintaining morale and public support. The suppression of dissent and control of information are strategic efforts to maintain domestic stability and control the narrative surrounding the conflict. The appointment of a military veteran to a senior education role suggests a strategic effort to integrate military values into civilian life and education. ASTRA reports a legal development in St. Petersburg with the arrest of a student accused of calling for terrorism. This highlights internal security concerns and legal actions against individuals accused of extremist views in Russia, which is strategically relevant for understanding the internal political and social landscape. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Два майора promoting fundraising efforts for military equipment highlight the continued reliance on public support for the Russian military, which can be seen as a strategic factor in sustaining the conflict. ASTRA reports a significant claim from the governor of Belgorod Oblast regarding civilian casualties in the region since 2022 due to alleged Ukrainian attacks, highlighting the impact of the conflict on Russian border regions and its strategic implications for domestic support and potentially resource allocation for border defense. Север.Реалии reports on the health of Alexei Gorinov, a former Moscow municipal deputy convicted in cases of "fakes" about the army and justifying terrorism, highlighting concerns about political prisoners within Russia. ТАСС reports on new history textbooks being developed for Russian schools, indicating a strategic effort to shape historical narratives for the younger generation. Два майора shares a propaganda message using the "Hunger Games" reference.
The report on alleged war crimes and human rights abuses from both sides highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the importance of adhering to international humanitarian law. Documenting and investigating these allegations are strategically important for accountability and international support.
The German threat of escalating sanctions against Russia if there is no progress on a ceasefire demonstrates the continued use of economic pressure as a strategic tool to influence Russia's actions (reported previously). Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that French President Macron stated that European allies continue to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the US if a positive response is not received from Russia regarding the requests made during the Istanbul talks. This reinforces the strategic use of economic measures.
The report on the localization of the forest fire near the Vostochny Cosmodrome highlights the importance of protecting strategic infrastructure within Russia from both natural and potentially man-made threats (reported previously).
The ongoing efforts by the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War to address the search and return of prisoners and missing personnel are strategically important for maintaining morale and public trust in Ukraine (reported previously).
The report on a regional military-patriotic game in Russia for children underscores a strategic focus on shaping the values and perspectives of the younger generation, potentially preparing them for future military service or aligning them with state ideology (reported previously).
The inaccessibility of an independent Russian media channel in Telegram suggests continued censorship and pressure on independent voices within Russia, which is strategically relevant for understanding the information landscape and the challenges faced by those providing alternative narratives (reported previously).
The ongoing reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia highlight the strategic importance of rebuilding civilian infrastructure and supporting affected populations (reported previously).
The report that Uniqlo will not return to Russia demonstrates the strategic impact of the geopolitical situation on foreign businesses operating in Russia (reported previously).
The claimed use of foreign gamers as drone operators by Ukraine, while likely an information operation, touches upon the strategic importance of skilled personnel and the potential for leveraging civilian expertise in modern warfare (reported previously).
The case of the Israeli volunteer seeking Ukrainian citizenship highlights the presence and contributions of foreign fighters and the strategic considerations related to their integration and support (reported previously).
WarGonzo's special report on tanks provides insight into Russia's strategic thinking regarding the continued relevance of armor and efforts to promote this branch of service (reported previously).
The alleged detention of Ukrainian agents in Germany highlights potential sabotage activities and their strategic implications for security in partner countries (reported previously).
The rockfall in Dagestan, while a natural disaster, has strategic implications for infrastructure and the ability to move resources and personnel in a specific region (reported previously).
The report on military misconduct within the Russian army, while an internal issue, could have strategic implications for morale, discipline, and trust within the forces (reported previously).
The report that Syria is reportedly refusing to print currency in Russia and has found other partners in the UAE and Germany is a significant geopolitical development with strategic implications for Russia's influence and financial ties in the Middle East.
Alex Parker Returns reports that the Taliban Prime Minister has called on Russian businesses to invest in Afghanistan, particularly in infrastructure, on a non-reimbursable basis, citing Russia's "historical guilt." This is a geopolitical development relevant to Russia's international engagement and potential resource allocation, which could impact their strategic priorities.
Два майора reports a truck rollover incident involving a French military convoy during NATO exercises in Romania. This indicates NATO military activity in the region and potential logistical challenges, which is strategically relevant for understanding the readiness and capabilities of allied forces.
STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report that US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the US will begin discussing the possibility of reducing its troops in Europe after the NATO summit in The Hague in June, somewhere later this year. This is a significant geopolitical development regarding the US military posture in Europe and could have strategic implications for NATO's collective defense and burden-sharing among allies.
Air raid alert has been announced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). This indicates a potential aerial threat to this region, highlighting the ongoing strategic pressure on this front.
Air raid alert has been announced in Sevastopol, Crimea. This is a significant strategic development as it indicates a potential aerial threat to occupied Crimea, highlighting the vulnerability of the peninsula to Ukrainian strikes.
РБК-Україна shares an article and column discussing the results of the Istanbul talks, particularly concerning the role of former US President Trump. This highlights the strategic importance of these discussions for understanding the potential paths to resolution.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a Russian claim about negotiation demands, including territorial claims and a threat to take more, which reflects the Russian strategic position and approach to negotiations.
«Зона СВО» shares a propaganda message reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength and capability, which is part of their strategic information operations.
Военкор Котенок provides a detailed report on intense fighting and claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, providing valuable tactical and operational intelligence about a key area of the front, which is critical for strategic planning.
Рыбарь reports on Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian counter-strikes, and also reports on claimed Russian advances, which is strategically relevant for understanding the dynamics of the conflict.
MoD Russia shares a "Top News Today" brief highlighting claimed successes and activities over the past week. This information is critical for understanding the overall intensity and geographical distribution of the conflict, which is fundamental for strategic assessment and decision-making.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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