Sitrep 2025-05-16 17:11:54

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 16, 2025, 17:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The tactical and strategic landscape continues to be marked by intense ground combat, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, persistent Russian aerial activity, and complex diplomatic maneuvering surrounding potential negotiations in Istanbul. Russian forces are actively engaged in offensive operations across multiple axes, including confirmed actions in Kharkiv Oblast and claimed advances in the South Donetsk direction. Diplomatic efforts in Istanbul have concluded for the present, with a confirmed pause and the Ukrainian delegation's departure, but the UN has welcomed the direct talks and hopes they serve as a critical step towards sustainable peace. Key points of contention remain Russia's refusal of a temporary truce and their insistence on acknowledging previous agreements, which Ukraine views as unacceptable. Humanitarian efforts continue with the preparation for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange and a large-scale body exchange. Internal Russian issues and external political developments continue to influence the broader context of the conflict, including domestic infrastructure projects and propaganda efforts emphasizing military technological advancements and critiquing the treatment of fallen soldiers. Ukrainian efforts focus on defense, seeking international support, addressing logistical and humanitarian needs, counterintelligence, and emphasizing the importance of legal frameworks even under martial law. Poland is reportedly preparing to transfer decommissioned MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine. French President Macron has stated that Russia's refusal of a ceasefire shows they want to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response.

Significant new updates from the last hour, building upon the previous analysis, include:

Ukrainian Official Attends Justice Forum in Kharkiv Oblast: Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, participated in a forum in Kharkiv focused on the Ministry of Justice's role in judicial proceedings during martial law. Key challenges in legal application during wartime, including sanctions, legal restrictions, preferential regimes for certain citizen categories, and justice body control, were discussed. The forum also addressed adapting legislation to European standards in the context of Ukraine's EU membership aspirations. Syniehubov highlighted Kharkiv Oblast's status as a border region continuing to defend while also shaping the legal environment to meet new security conditions. This indicates ongoing efforts within Ukraine to maintain and adapt its legal and administrative systems under wartime conditions, particularly in frontline regions.
Russian Defense Minister Visits Khatyn Memorial Complex in Belarus: MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov visiting the Khatyn State Memorial Complex near Minsk, Belarus, laying flowers and wreaths to honor those who died during the Great Patriotic War. This visit occurred during Belousov's working visit to Belarus, where he met with Belarusian President Lukashenko and his Belarusian counterpart. This highlights the continued close military and historical ties between Russia and Belarus and the use of historical narratives in the context of current events.
Medinsky Reiterates Russian Stance on Simultaneous War and Negotiations: ТАСС shares another statement from Vladimir Medinsky reiterating on "Russia-1" television that those who believe negotiations can only happen during a truce "do not know history," emphasizing that war and negotiations have always occurred simultaneously. This reinforces the Russian position that military pressure will continue alongside any diplomatic efforts.
UN Welcomes Direct Russia-Ukraine Talks and Hopes for Sustainable Peace: ТАСС reports that the UN welcomes the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, noting they were the first in three years. The UN hopes these talks will serve as a "critical step" towards creating conditions for sustainable peace and states the organization is ready to support significant efforts to end the conflict. This provides an international perspective on the recent talks and signals potential UN engagement in future peace efforts.
Colonelcassad Reports on Russian Advances and Counterattacks in South Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides a detailed report on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, stating that Ukrainian forces attempted to disrupt Russian advances with aviation-bomb strikes and three counterattacks (one with armored vehicles, two on foot). Russian forces reportedly destroyed two armored combat vehicles with FPV drones during a Ukrainian counterattack near Bogatyr. The report claims the liquidation of surrounded Ukrainian forces in the area of Bogatyr and the clearing of the central part of the settlement. Russian forces are also claimed to have continued their offensive in the area of Otradnoye, blocking the settlement from the east and taking control of a forest belt. West of Volnoye Pole, Russian forces are claimed to have advanced over 500 meters in depth and up to 1 km along the front, with claimed Ukrainian losses. On the direction of Zelenoye Pole – Novopol, Russian forces are claimed to have taken control of two enemy defense areas, including five forest belts and a dominant height, with an overall advance of 1.5 to 2 km along the front. Russian artillery and UAV operators reportedly continued to strike Ukrainian logistics and reserves, hitting reinforcement groups, disrupting rotations, destroying an evacuation group, and stopping ammunition resupply. Claimed Ukrainian losses in the South Donetsk direction for the day include 13 units of equipment (2 armored combat vehicles, 1 self-propelled artillery system, 2 towed howitzers, 7 vehicles), command and communication assets (trench EW system, ammunition point, fuel depot, 3 Starlink satellite stations), 64 UAVs (5 fixed-wing, 59 copter-type), and 9 UAV launchers. The report also claims that by liberating Volnoye Pole, Russian units have "factually cut off supply routes" for the Ukrainian grouping in Shevchenko from the south and are aiming to establish control over a section of the Shevchenko – Voskresenka road to disrupt logistics and prepare for a "Battle for Shevchenko." The "Battle for Bogatyr" is ongoing, with a bridgehead being created for further advances along the Volchya River. This provides detailed Russian claims of significant tactical advances and Ukrainian losses in the South Donetsk direction, along with stated operational objectives.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС Reports on Scandal Regarding Burial of Russian Servicemembers in Volgodonsk: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video and commentary reporting a scandal in Volgodonsk, Russia, regarding the treatment of burials of participants in the "special military operation" (SVO). Veterans of the SVO reportedly accuse the city administration of indifference to the "heroes," claiming that deceased occupants are being buried "like production waste" without honor or glory. The commentary includes a quote from a veteran stating that bodies were brought in "massively," the alley for burials grew "right before our eyes," and it no longer accommodates them, adding that they "honestly didn't expect '200s' (killed in action), anyone." This highlights potential issues with casualty management and the perception of how fallen soldiers are being treated in Russia, which could impact morale and public sentiment.
Russian Military Bloggers Comment on "Turtle Tanks" and their Effectiveness: Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary discussing the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks" (Russian tanks with improvised overhead armor), stating that initially the enemy mocked them, but now they are copying the invention. Despite some drawbacks, these tanks reportedly demonstrate better survivability in certain circumstances and can accomplish combat tasks, being a "niche solution, but it works." The commentary highlights a specific instance of a "Tsar-Mangal" (a heavily armored tank) breaking through enemy defenses at Krasnogorovka, driving through minefields and drone swarms to reach a factory in the center of the settlement. This discussion from a Russian military blogger provides insight into the perceived effectiveness and tactical role of these modified vehicles.
WarGonzo Reports on EU Sanctions and Peace Talks: WarGonzo reports that the EU is planning the largest package of sanctions against Russia to be discussed at a meeting of leaders from over 40 countries in Albania. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly does not believe in the success of the Istanbul peace talks and proposes new sanctions targeting Nord Stream pipelines, the banking sector, and the "shadow fleet" of tankers. She also plans to lower the oil price cap. WarGonzo frames this as the EU prioritizing an "embargo instead of peace" and suggests that "globalist elites" and "neo-Nazi Kyiv regime leaders" do not want long-term peace and stability, motivated by "entrenched Russophobia" and a desire to "continue robbing European taxpayers" through support for Ukraine. This report from a pro-Russian source presents a specific narrative about the reasons behind continued EU sanctions and the perceived lack of sincerity from Western and Ukrainian leaders regarding peace.
Volgodonsk Cemetery Scandal Further Detailed: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's report on the scandal at the Volgodonsk cemetery provides specific details from veterans, including their accusations of indifference from the city administration and the comparison of burials to "production waste." The quote about the rapid growth of the burial alley and the unexpected high number of casualties adds significant detail to the situation.
Polish Transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine Reported: Старше Эдды reports that Poland intends to transfer decommissioned MiG-29 aircraft from its air force to Ukraine. The report from this Russian source asks about the number of aircraft and their potential impact on the conflict, also questioning whether MiG-29s are better than F-16s. This indicates awareness within Russian military blogging circles of potential upcoming military aid to Ukraine involving combat aircraft.
Colonelcassad Shares Report by "Voin DV" on South Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad's detailed report on the South Donetsk direction explicitly states it is based on information from "Voin DV." This indicates collaboration and information sharing between these Russian military bloggers.
Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) Reports on Infrastructure Projects: Igor Artamonov, the governor of Lipetsk Oblast in Russia, shares a video and reports on the completion of school repairs, the opening of a new kindergarten, and the start of major repairs at a лицеум in the Khlevensky district. He highlights the speed and quality of the work and mentions receiving gratitude from the President of Russia. He also notes difficulties with the construction of a sports and recreation complex (FOK). While not directly related to military operations in Ukraine, this provides insight into domestic governance and infrastructure development within a Russian region, potentially highlighting resource allocation priorities.
Воин DV Shares Narrative on a Soldier's Motivation: Воин DV shares a video featuring a soldier from Buryatia with the call sign "Aibolit," who reportedly became a volunteer so that his children would not see war and would have a bright future. This is a form of propaganda aimed at showcasing individual motivations for participating in the conflict and framing it as a defense of future generations.
Russian Volunteer Legion Claims Capture of Russian Servicemember: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming that soldiers of the "Legion" captured a servicemember of the Russian 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment with the call sign "Lyutyi" during an attempted assault. The video shows the captured soldier being told he will return home and an appeal to Russian soldiers to surrender as a chance to live. This is a claim of a successful capture by Ukrainian volunteer forces and an example of information operations aimed at encouraging Russian surrenders.
Военкор Котенок Discusses "Geran" Effectiveness and Advancements: Военкор Котенок provides a detailed explanation, from a Russian perspective, of the claimed technological dominance and advancements of "Geran" drones. The report lists several claimed improvements, including a modified engine for higher altitude and speed, a modified airframe for high-speed dives, improved microelectronics to overcome Western EW systems, improved anti-spoofing algorithms, increased warhead power, and refined tactics. The report suggests that Ukraine is forced to risk F-16s and lose them as a result. This is a significant piece of Russian information operation aimed at highlighting the effectiveness of their drone program, claiming superiority over Western technology, and potentially influencing perceptions of the air war.
DeepState Reports on Situation in Torske Based on Ukrainian Commander: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares a video with commentary on the situation in Torske, citing the commander of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, Colonel Pavlo Yurchuk. Yurchuk reportedly confirms that the enemy has been reporting to their command about holding Torske for a long time. He confirms that a group of Russian forces entered the village attempting to create a "media picture of control" but states that the 63rd Brigade regularly eliminates enemy personnel, emphasizing that this is not the first, and unfortunately, not the last attempt. This provides a Ukrainian perspective on the fighting in Torske, countering Russian claims of control and highlighting ongoing defensive actions and Russian attempts at information operations related to territorial gains.
ASTRA Reports on Russian Shelling and Fire in Kherson: ASTRA reports that Russian forces struck Kherson today with artillery shelling, resulting in a fire in a two-story non-residential building where the roof and second floor caught fire. The report, citing the Ukrainian State Emergency Service, states there were no casualties. Photos show firefighters responding to the scene. This confirms continued Russian shelling of Kherson, causing damage to civilian infrastructure, although without reported casualties in this specific incident.
Russian Embassy in UK Claims British Authorities Trying to Derail Negotiations: ТАСС reports that the Russian Embassy in the UK issued a statement claiming that British authorities are trying to derail the negotiation process on Ukraine by threatening Russia with new sanctions. This highlights ongoing tensions between Russia and the UK and the use of diplomatic statements to frame the actions of other countries.
WarGonzo Reiterates EU Sanction Plans and Critiques Western/Ukrainian Leaders: WarGonzo's report on EU sanctions reiterates the details from other sources but adds strong language criticizing Western and Ukrainian leaders, calling them "globalist elites" and "neo-Nazi Kyiv regime leaders" who are not interested in peace and are motivated by Russophobia and corruption. This reinforces the propaganda narrative from this source.
Военкор Котенок Recommends His News Channel and Discusses Content: Военкор Котенок shares a promotional message for his news channel "Segodnya.Ru," stating he is the chief editor. He highlights the channel's content, including frontline reports, news, historical materials, and analysis, and positions it as a reserve platform in case of emergencies. This indicates the role of military bloggers in disseminating information and establishing their own media platforms.
Два майора Shares Photos from Museum of SVO Tour: Два майора shares photos from an excursion organized for a group from the Military Institute of Physical Culture Cadet Corps at the "Museum of SVO" (Museum of the Special Military Operation) in St. Petersburg. The photos show cadets viewing exhibits, including military equipment. This highlights efforts within Russia to educate and indoctrinate younger generations about the conflict and its history, likely as part of a broader strategy to foster patriotism and support for military actions.
Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны Shares Medinsky's Statement on Negotiations and Blames West for Breakdown: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video of Vladimir Medinsky's statement where he reiterates that the conflict could have ended three years ago if Ukraine had agreed to peace in February (2022) in Gomel. He claims that the Istanbul agreements were "somewhat tougher" due to "realities on the ground" and that the Istanbul process was "disrupted due to direct intervention of the West." He also mentions that the head of Zelenskyy's office, Yermak, stated today that Kyiv will not return to the "Istanbul project." This is a direct Russian narrative blaming Ukraine and the West for the continuation of the conflict and portraying Russian terms as having become harsher over time.
РБК-Україна Summarizes Key Events of the Day: РБК-Україна provides a summary of key events, including the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul (discussing prisoner exchange and leader meeting), Zelenskyy's call with Trump and "coalition of the willing" leaders (discussing the Istanbul meeting), explosions in occupied Crimea (ammunition depot hit), the loss of a Ukrainian F-16 during a Russian air attack, the return of 909 fallen Ukrainian defenders' bodies, and the notice of suspicion to ex-football captain Tymoshchuk for aiding the aggressor state. It also mentions domestic Ukrainian news (pension changes, reforms, Diia job service, dollar exchange rate increase) and international news (Zelenskyy in Albania, Trump's statements on meeting Putin, new Pope offering Vatican for talks, potential EU full trade embargo and increased artillery shell supply, ex-US Ambassador's reason for resignation). This provides a concise overview of significant military, political, and domestic developments from a Ukrainian perspective.
Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine Cites Trump's Pressure as Reason for Resignation: РБК-Україна shares an article about former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink's reason for resignation. In a column, she reportedly stated her work in Ukraine was the "hardest" of her life and she couldn't stand by while the country was invaded and children's deaths went unpunished. She also cited the inability to conscientiously perform state policy when Trump was "pressing Ukraine, not Russia." This is a significant statement from a former high-level US official, indicating potential political pressure related to Ukraine policy and its impact on diplomatic work.
WarGonzo's Criticism of Western/Ukrainian Leaders Aligns with Russian Narrative: WarGonzo's strong critique of Western and Ukrainian leaders aligns with the broader Russian narrative that portrays these actors as being against peace and motivated by self-interest and hostility towards Russia.
Colonelcassad's Discussion of "Turtle Tanks" is an Information Operation: Colonelcassad's detailed commentary on "Turtle Tanks," highlighting their effectiveness and claiming Ukraine is copying them, is a clear information operation aimed at showcasing Russian military innovation and adaptability, potentially to boost morale and counter narratives about Russian equipment losses.
Воин DV's Narrative on Soldier Motivation is Propaganda: Воин DV's sharing of a soldier's motivation for volunteering is a form of propaganda aimed at generating public support for the conflict and framing it as a defense of future generations.
Russian Volunteer Legion's Claim of Capturing Russian Servicemember is Information Operation: Оперативний ЗСУ's sharing of the video claiming the capture of a Russian servicemember and the appeal to Russian soldiers to surrender is a form of information operation aimed at demoralizing Russian forces and encouraging defection.
Военкор Котенок's Discussion of "Geran" Advancements is an Information Operation: Военкор Котенок's detailed claims about the advancements and effectiveness of "Geran" drones, particularly the assertion that they overcome Western EW and force Ukraine to risk F-16s, is a significant information operation aimed at exaggerating Russian technological capabilities and undermining confidence in Western military aid.
DeepState's Report on Torske Counters Russian Narrative: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦's report on Torske, citing the Ukrainian commander and stating that Russian claims of control are for "media picture" purposes, directly counters the Russian narrative of territorial gains in that area and highlights the ongoing nature of the fighting. This is a direct counter to Russian information operations.
ASTRA's Report on Kherson Shelling Confirms Ongoing Attacks: ASTRA's report on the shelling and fire in Kherson confirms that this area continues to be targeted by Russian forces, impacting civilian infrastructure.
Russian Embassy's Statement on British Sanctions is a Diplomatic Information Operation: The Russian Embassy in the UK's statement blaming British authorities for trying to derail negotiations through sanctions is a diplomatic information operation aimed at portraying the UK as an obstacle to peace and framing sanctions as a malicious act.
Два майора's Photos from Museum Tour are Propaganda: Два майора's sharing of photos from the "Museum of SVO" tour is a form of propaganda aimed at promoting a specific narrative about the conflict and fostering military-patriotic sentiment, particularly among younger generations.
Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны's Blaming the West for Negotiation Breakdown is Information Operation: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны's sharing of Medinsky's statement blaming the West for the breakdown of negotiations and claiming Russian terms have become tougher is a clear information operation aimed at absolving Russia of responsibility for the continuation of the conflict and presenting a narrative of increasing Russian strength.
Ex-US Ambassador's Statement is a Significant Political Development: The statement from the former US Ambassador to Ukraine regarding her resignation and citing pressure related to Trump's policy towards Ukraine and Russia is a significant political development that could have implications for US foreign policy discussions and perceptions of US support for Ukraine.
Polish Transfer of MiG-29s is Military Aid: Старше Эдды's report on the potential Polish transfer of MiG-29s is significant military aid for Ukraine, providing additional combat aircraft capabilities. The timing and number of aircraft will be strategically important.
Macron's Statement on Russian Refusal of Ceasefire and Western Response: РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. This is a significant statement from a key European leader, indicating a coordinated Western stance and potential for further action in response to Russia's negotiating position.
Claimed Ukrainian Strike on Russian Positions in Kherson Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian aviation strike on a hangar in Cherkaske, Kherson Oblast, destroying Ukrainian equipment and supplies. This is a Russian claim of a successful strike against Ukrainian logistics.
Colonelcassad Claims Destroyed Ukrainian Equipment in Krasnolimansky Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian equipment ("enemy boxes") in the Krasnolimansky direction, attributing it to targeting for "improper parking." This is a Russian claim of a successful strike in this area.
Ukrainian Claim of Destroyed Russian Buk-M1: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system. This is a Ukrainian claim of a successful strike against a significant Russian military asset.
Ukrainian Claim of Downing Russian Ka-52 with Drone and Geolocation: STERNENKO and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno share videos claiming Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with a drone using an air detonation tactic. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno provides a location (Sukhynivka, Kursk Oblast, Russia) and coordinates, suggesting this incident occurred in Russian territory. This is a significant Ukrainian claim of success against a valuable Russian aerial asset and a potential demonstration of extended-range drone capabilities.
Russian Military Blogger Mocking Ukrainian Delegation: Kotsnews shares a sarcastic and demeaning post about the Ukrainian delegation allegedly delaying negotiations due to being engrossed in "cockroach races" or shopping. This is a clear instance of Russian information operation aimed at ridiculing the Ukrainian delegation and the negotiation process.
Ukrainian Delegation Member Emphasizes Need for Leader Meeting with Putin and Continued Pressure: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that the next step should be a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin as many issues can only be resolved at the leader level, and that pressure on Russia must continue. This provides a clear statement of the Ukrainian delegation's desired next steps and strategic approach.
Ukrainian Delegation Member States Putin Alone Can Solve Issues: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that due to the nature of Russia, practically every issue is decided by Putin, highlighting the perceived centralized decision-making in Russia.
Russian Military Blogger Repeats Claim of "Geran" Technological Dominance: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares the same detailed claims about the technological advancements and effectiveness of "Geran" drones as previously reported by Военкор Котенок. This indicates the wide dissemination of this information operation within Russian military blogging circles.
Russian Military Blogger Claims US Analysts Concerned about "Geran" Effectiveness: WarGonzo and Рыбарь share videos claiming that US analysts are "extremely worried" about the increasing effectiveness of "Geran" drones, citing an effectiveness rate of up to 36%. This is a significant piece of Russian information operation aimed at boosting the perceived capabilities of their drones and influencing perceptions of their impact.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Discusses Istanbul Negotiations and Sanctions with EU Leaders: Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. Zelenskyy stated that he discussed the Istanbul negotiations and emphasized that pressure on Russia, including through the 17th sanctions package targeting banks, oil, energy, metallurgy, and the "shadow fleet," must increase if Russia does not agree to an unconditional ceasefire. This highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts to maintain and increase international pressure on Russia.
Russian Propaganda Book "Military Alphabet" for Children: ASTRA reports on the presentation of a Russian book for children aged 7-8 called "Military Alphabet," where letters are associated with military equipment and concepts, including QR codes linking to thematic videos. This is a clear instance of Russian propaganda aimed at early indoctrination of children with military themes.
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising for Equipment for 5th Brigade DNR: Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 5th Brigade DNR, noting that funds for 66 have been collected and 30 cars were transferred by volunteer drivers. This indicates reliance on public support for equipment for specific Russian or proxy units.
Russian Military Blogger Links Negotiation Outcomes to Drone Activity: Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, suggests that if the number of Ukrainian drones and missiles does not exceed average levels in the next two nights, it means negotiations are proceeding "normally." This explicitly links military activity (specifically Ukrainian strikes) to the perceived success or failure of the negotiations, reflecting a Russian perspective on the relationship between military pressure and diplomacy.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Ukrainian Attack on Poland Planned for 2030: Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations, and that the Russian delegation dismissed this as "fantasy." This is a report on an unsubstantiated claim made during negotiations, potentially intended to sow discord or portray the Ukrainian side negatively.
Russian Military Blogger Reports Scandal in Russia Regarding Dismissal over Patriotic Play: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired and questioned by the prosecutor's office for including a character with a swastika armband in a patriotic play about WWII to depict historical accuracy, despite the teacher being the wife and mother of servicemen. This highlights potential internal Russian issues related to the interpretation of symbols and the treatment of individuals connected to the military.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk direction, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Bakhmutsky, Ugledarsky, Vremivsky direction, Volnoye Pole, Dzerzhynsk, South Donetsk direction, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Shevchenko, Voskresenka, Krasnogorovka, Torske, Krasnolimansky direction, Panteleymonovka): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Кураховского, Покровского, Бахмутского, Угледарского, and Луганского directions were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that artillery from the 305th Brigade of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" Group struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremivsky direction. Воин DV claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole and a tank operation there. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk with a "Kornet" missile. Олександр Вілкул, citing the Ukrainian General Staff, reports significant Russian losses on the front, including on directions like Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks in the South Donetsk direction, claiming the liquidation of surrounded Ukrainian forces in Bogatyr, clearing of the settlement's center, advances in Otradnoye, west of Volnoye Pole, and on the Zelenoye Pole – Novopol direction. He also reports strikes on Ukrainian logistics and reserves in the South Donetsk direction, including near Voskresenka, Zelenyy Kut, Voronovo, Temirovka, Zelenyy Gay, Gulyaypole, Shevchenko, and Fedorovka. Colonelcassad mentions a "Tsar-Mangal" tank breaking through defenses at Krasnogorovka. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 and Николаевский Ванёк report on the situation in Torske, citing the commander of the 63rd Brigade, stating that Russian claims of control are for media purposes and the 63rd Brigade is eliminating enemy personnel in the village. ASTRA reports a half-ton Russian aviation bomb fell in occupied Panteleymonovka. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky direction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system, likely in Donetsk Oblast based on operational context. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for the 5th Brigade DNR, active in Donetsk Oblast. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Олександр Вілкул, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, ASTRA, Николаевский Ванёк, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Topoli, Petrivka): Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed ground advances. Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Kharkiv direction were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Sever" Group continue to eliminate Ukrainian hardware and manpower in the Kharkiv region. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) struck an elevator in Vovchansk. Oleh Syniehubov reports on attending a justice forum in Kharkiv, highlighting the region's status as a border region continuing to defend. РБК-Україна reports explosions in occupied Crimea (ammunition depot hit), the loss of a Ukrainian F-16 during a Russian air attack, and the return of 909 fallen Ukrainian defenders' bodies (some likely from Kharkiv). (Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Олег Синєгубов, РБК-Україна)
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Sumy direction were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. (Басурин о главном)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Tokmak, Molochansk, Zaporizhzhia district, Kamenka-Dneprovskaya): Affected by Russian strikes and Ukrainian support efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on veteran health and rehabilitation efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian strikes and claimed casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces in 13 settlements earlier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 warned of rocket and bomb danger in Tokmak and Polohy earlier. Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Zaporizhzhia direction were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. ТАСС reports three Ukrainian drones attacked the administration building in Kamenka-Dneprovskaya, resulting in injuries. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on free adaptive table tennis training sessions for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Pokrovska hromadas, Nikopol, Kamianske): Affected by Russian FPV drone and artillery attacks and Ukrainian counterintelligence operations. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports attacks on Nikopol district communities and Nikopol with FPV drones, artillery, and MLRS. He also reports a detention by the SBU in Kamianske earlier and a meeting with the Czech Republic's authorized person for Ukraine's reconstruction. Oфіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have taken measures to return over 18 thousand hectares of agricultural land to communities from illegal leaseholders. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Oфіс Генерального прокурора)
Kherson Oblast (Kherson, Cherkaske): Affected by Russian shelling and Ukrainian strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports damage to the railway station building in Kherson from shelling. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Kherson today with artillery, causing a fire in a non-residential building. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian aviation strike on a hangar in Cherkaske, Kherson Oblast, destroying Ukrainian equipment and supplies. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Turkey (Istanbul): Continues to be the location for diplomatic negotiations, which have concluded for now with a pause. Reports confirm the conclusion of initial talks, the Ukrainian delegation's departure, Russia's refusal of a temporary truce, and differing views on the outcome. Умєров, cited by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ, stated that Zelenskyy was expecting high-level discussions and that the next step should be a meeting with Putin. ТАСС and ASTRA report that Rodion Miroshnik stated Ukraine hoped for a 30-day ceasefire but was refused. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники echoes the refusal of a 30-day truce. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report that Мединский emphasized reminding Ukraine of the Gomel agreements and stated that war and negotiations occur simultaneously. РБК-Україна reports on a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange being prepared, citing Вадим Скібіцький of GUR. Басурин о главном reports on a large-scale body exchange. РБК-Україна reports that Георгій Тихий of the Ukrainian MFA stated the Russian delegation articulated "unacceptable things" and confirmed new demands were made. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian delegation will leave Istanbul on Friday. Fighterbomber posts a sarcastic message mocking Ukrainian negotiation expectations. Colonelcassad comments on the reactions of European leaders to the Istanbul talks, portraying them negatively. Reuters, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ, reports European leaders agreed with Zelenskyy that Russia's position is unacceptable and are coordinating with Trump. Два майора shares a video of Medinsky reiterating the Russian negotiation stance. РБК-Україна reports that Георгій Тихий confirmed new Russian demands. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russian demands are unacceptable. STERNENKO alleges Russian demand to recognize Crimea as Russian (uncofirmed). ТАСС shares another statement from Medinsky reiterating his stance on simultaneous war and negotiations. UN has welcomed the direct talks and hopes they lead to sustainable peace. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Medinsky's statement blaming the West for the breakdown of negotiations. РБК-Україна reports on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, discussing prisoner exchange and leader meeting. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that the next step should be a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and that pressure on Russia must continue. (Умєров, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Fighterbomber, Colonelcassad, Reuters, Два майора, STERNENKO, UN)
Russia (Volgodonsk, Lipetsk Oblast, St. Petersburg, Saratov): Internal issues and information operations continue. Басурин о главном reports that Russia received 34 bodies of Russian servicemen in a body exchange. Два майора shares a video clip claiming US concern over "Geran" effectiveness, which is an information operation. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a casualty from a "Lepestok" mine. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk. Alex Parker Returns shares information about demand for THC products. MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister visiting the Khatyn Memorial Complex in Belarus. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation. Военкор Котенок discusses "Geran" effectiveness and advancements. Два майора shares photos from a Museum of SVO tour. Igor Artamonov reports on infrastructure projects in Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports on a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children in Altai Krai. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for the 5th Brigade DNR. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired and questioned by the prosecutor's office for including a character with a swastika armband in a patriotic play about WWII. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations. (Басурин о главном, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Народная милиция ДНР, MoD Russia, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Igor Artamonov, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Luhansk direction: Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Луганского direction were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. (Басурин о главном)
Kurakhovsky direction: Басурин о главном reports that bodies of Ukrainian servicemen killed in the Кураховского direction were returned to Ukraine in a body exchange. (Басурин о главном)
Volgodonsk (Russia): Affected by a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on this scandal. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Belarus (Minsk): Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov visited Belarus and the Khatyn Memorial Complex. MoD Russia shares a video of this visit. (MoD Russia)
United Kingdom: The Russian Embassy claims British authorities are trying to derail negotiations. ТАСС reports on this statement. ТАСС reports that the Russian Embassy in London stated that Starmer's remarks on Russia's position at negotiations cause confusion. (ТАСС)
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Affected by infrastructure development projects. Igor Artamonov reports on these projects. (Igor Artamonov)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Location of the "Museum of SVO." Два майора shares photos from a tour there. (Два майора)
Poland: Reportedly preparing to transfer MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine. Старше Эдды reports on this. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations. (Старше Эдды, Два майора)
Republic of Crimea (occupied): Affected by explosions at an ammunition depot. РБК-Україна reports explosions in occupied Crimea (ammunition depot hit). (РБК-Україна)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sukhynivka): Allegedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks resulting in the downing of a Russian helicopter. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno and STERNENKO share videos claiming Ukrainian Special Operations Forces downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with a drone in Sukhynivka, Kursk Oblast. (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, STERNENKO)
Altai Krai (Russia): Location of the presentation of a Russian propaganda book for children. ASTRA reports on the presentation of a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children in Altai Krai. (ASTRA)
Saratov (Russia): Affected by a scandal regarding the dismissal of a teacher over a patriotic play. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired and questioned by the prosecutor's office for including a character with a swastika armband in a patriotic play about WWII. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
BRICS: Geopolitical engagements and potential expansion are noted in previous reports. (Previous Reports)
India: Economic engagement with Russia is noted in previous reports. (Previous Reports)
European Union: Discussions on sanctions packages against Russia and support for Ukraine are ongoing. WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans. РБК-Україна reports on potential EU full trade embargo and increased artillery shell supply. WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing sanctions. (WarGonzo, РБК-Україна, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
United Nations: Welcomed the direct talks in Istanbul and hopes for sustainable peace. ТАСС reports on UN statements. (ТАСС)
France: President Macron made a statement on Russia's refusal of a ceasefire. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. (РБК-Україна)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Russian forces are utilizing drones for reconnaissance and strike purposes, including FPV drones and reportedly "Baba-Yaga" types. Ukrainian forces are actively countering Russian drone attacks and utilizing drones for various purposes, including targeting Russian equipment and personnel, and claimed the downing of a Russian Ka-52 with an FPV drone in Russian territory. Russia claims downing Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces are claiming to destroy Russian equipment in Belgorod Oblast with drones (previously reported). Allegations of Ukrainian unconventional mine usage near Kremennaya and remote mining using "Baba Yaga" drones are noted (previously reported). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports Russian FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian drone strikes (221 attacks) in Zaporizhzhia direction earlier. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Sever" Group continue to eliminate Ukrainian hardware and manpower in the Kharkiv region. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone (likely the incident claimed by STERNENKO and КіберБорошно). Colonelcassad reports on Russian FPV drone use to destroy Ukrainian armored vehicles and strikes on Ukrainian logistics with UAVs in the South Donetsk direction, reporting 64 downed Ukrainian UAVs (59 copter-type) and 9 UAV launchers. ТАСС reports three Ukrainian drones attacked the administration building in Kamenka-Dneprovskaya. Военкор Котенок discusses the claimed advancements and effectiveness of "Geran" drones. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian equipment in Belgorod Oblast with drones. STERNENKO and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno share videos claiming Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with a drone using an air detonation tactic, with КіберБорошно providing location and coordinates in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, suggests that the number of Ukrainian drones and missiles in the next two nights will indicate the state of negotiations. Военкор Котенок and Рыбарь share videos claiming that US analysts are "extremely worried" about the increasing effectiveness of "Geran" drones. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, STERNENKO, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Fighterbomber, Рыбарь)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation continues to employ guided aerial bombs. No new reports in the immediate last hour, but previous reports indicated widespread use in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad reported a Russian aviation-bomb strike in the South Donetsk direction. ASTRA reported a half-ton Russian aviation bomb fell in occupied Panteleymonovka. (Colonelcassad, ASTRA)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes. Ukrainian forces claimed the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter and reportedly lost an F-16 during a Russian air attack. Poland is reportedly preparing to transfer MiG-29s to Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone (likely the incident claimed by STERNENKO and КіберБорошно). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine lost an F-16. Старше Эдды reports on potential Polish MiG-29 transfer. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian aviation strike on a hangar in Cherkaske, Kherson Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Старше Эдды, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats, including drones and guided aerial bombs, and reportedly lost an F-16. Russian forces also claim to counter Ukrainian drone activity. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone, highlighting Ukrainian effectiveness against Russian air assets (likely the incident claimed by STERNENKO and КіберБорошно). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine lost an F-16 during a Russian air attack, indicating ongoing air defense engagements. Colonelcassad reports on Russian strikes targeting a trench EW system in the South Donetsk direction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire and MLRS use by both sides. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports Russian artillery and MLRS attacks in Nikopol district, including "Grad" MLRS. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian artillery (155 strikes) and RSZO (3 strikes) activity in Zaporizhzhia direction earlier. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that artillery from the 305th Brigade of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" Group struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremivsky direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) struck an elevator in Vovchansk. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports damage to the railway station building in Kherson from shelling. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk with a "Kornet" missile. Colonelcassad reports on Russian artillery striking Ukrainian logistics and reserves in the South Donetsk direction. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Kherson today with artillery. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system, likely using artillery or a guided missile. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Народная милиция ДНР, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Direct negotiations in Istanbul have concluded for now, with a confirmed pause. Ukraine sought a 30-day ceasefire, which Russia refused. Russia emphasized the importance of previous agreements and stated that war and negotiations occur simultaneously. The Ukrainian delegation viewed some Russian points as unacceptable and confirmed new demands were made, but their position remains unchanged. Ukraine is pursuing a leader-level meeting with Putin as the next step. A "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange is being prepared. A large-scale body exchange has taken place. European leaders view the Russian stance as unacceptable and are coordinating with former US President Trump regarding their response. The UN has welcomed the direct talks. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that the next step should be a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and that pressure on Russia must continue. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that due to the nature of Russia, practically every issue is decided by Putin, highlighting the perceived centralized decision-making in Russia. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations, which the Russian delegation dismissed. (Умєров, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Fighterbomber, Colonelcassad, Reuters, Два майора, STERNENKO, UN, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: The current round of direct talks in Istanbul has ended with a pause. Ukraine is seeking a leader-level meeting and confirmed new unacceptable Russian demands. A prisoner exchange is being prepared. A large-scale body exchange has taken place. The Ukrainian delegation has departed Istanbul. The UN has welcomed the direct talks. Russia continues to blame the West for the breakdown of the "Istanbul project." Умєров, cited by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ, stated that Zelenskyy was expecting high-level discussions and that the next step should be a meeting with Putin. ТАСС and ASTRA report that Rodion Miroshnik stated Ukraine hoped for a 30-day ceasefire but was refused. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report that Мединский emphasized reminding Ukraine of the Gomel agreements and stated that war and negotiations occur simultaneously. РБК-Україна reports on a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange being prepared, citing Вадим Скібіцький of GUR. Басурин о главном reports on a large-scale body exchange. РБК-Україна reports that Георгій Тихий of the Ukrainian MFA stated the Russian delegation articulated "unacceptable things" and confirmed new demands were made. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian delegation will leave Istanbul on Friday. ТАСС shares another statement from Medinsky. UN has welcomed the direct talks. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Medinsky's statement blaming the West for the breakdown of negotiations and stating Ukraine will not return to the "Istanbul project." Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya stated that the next step should be a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and that pressure on Russia must continue. (Умєров, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, UN)
International Reaction to Negotiations: European leaders expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's position during the Istanbul talks and are coordinating their response with the US, including engagement with former US President Trump. The UN has welcomed the direct talks and hopes for sustainable peace. The Russian Embassy in the UK claims British authorities are trying to derail negotiations with new sanctions. Colonelcassad comments on the reactions of European leaders. Reuters, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ, reports European leaders agreed with Zelenskyy that Russia's position is unacceptable and are coordinating with Trump. UN has welcomed the direct talks. ТАСС reports on the Russian Embassy in the UK's statement. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. ТАСС reports that the Russian Embassy in London stated that Starmer's remarks on Russia's position at negotiations cause confusion. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations. (Colonelcassad, Reuters, Оперативний ЗСУ, UN, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Internal Russian Politics: Internal issues and information operations continue. Два майора shares a video clip claiming US concern over "Geran" effectiveness, which is an information operation. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a casualty from a "Lepestok" mine. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk. Alex Parker Returns shares information about demand for THC products. MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister visiting the Khatyn Memorial Complex in Belarus. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation. Военкор Котенок discusses "Geran" effectiveness and advancements. Два майора shares photos from a Museum of SVO tour. Igor Artamonov reports on infrastructure projects in Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports on a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children in Altai Krai. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for the 5th Brigade DNR. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired and questioned by the prosecutor's office for including a character with a swastika armband in a patriotic play about WWII. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations. (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Народная милиция ДНР, MoD Russia, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Igor Artamonov, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations (Russia): Басурин о главном reports on a large-scale body exchange, providing specific figures, which can be used in information operations. MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister visiting the Khatyn Memorial Complex in Belarus, highlighting historical ties and commemoration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk, which can be used in information operations highlighting perceived failures. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation, likely for propaganda purposes. Два майора shares photos from a Museum of SVO tour, serving as propaganda. ASTRA reports on a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired over a patriotic play with a swastika armband, highlighting potential internal Russian issues related to the interpretation of symbols and the treatment of individuals connected to the military. (Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Воин DV, Два майора, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Casualties: A large-scale body exchange has taken place, with Ukraine receiving 909 bodies and Russia 34. A Russian soldier was reported injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Claims of Ukrainian losses are reported by Russian sources. A scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk highlights potential issues with managing a high number of fallen. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports no casualties from attacks in Nikopol district, but updated information on overnight shelling in Nikopol states no losses of people. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces in Cherkassy (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) earlier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Colonelcassad reports claimed Ukrainian losses in the South Donetsk direction, including personnel and equipment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk, highlighting potential issues with managing large numbers of fallen. ASTRA reports a fire in Kherson after Russian shelling but no reported casualties in that specific incident. Оперативний ЗСУ claims to have captured a Russian servicemember. РБК-Україна reports on the return of 909 fallen Ukrainian defenders' bodies. (Басурин о главном, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Support for Ukraine from International Partners: European leaders are coordinating their response to the negotiation outcome and engaging with former US President Trump. The Czech Republic is cooperating with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on reconstruction and medical support. Poland is reportedly preparing to transfer MiG-29s. The UN is ready to support efforts to end the conflict. Reuters, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ, reports European leaders agreed with Zelenskyy that Russia's position is unacceptable and are coordinating with Trump. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports on cooperation with the Czech Republic on reconstruction and medical support. Старше Эдды reports on potential Polish MiG-29 transfer. UN is ready to support efforts to end the conflict. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations and sanctions. (Reuters, Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Старше Эдды, UN, РБК-Україна, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Internal Ukrainian Issues: A Ukrainian blogger is facing criminal cases, including state treason. Efforts are underway to support veterans. Local governments are providing direct assistance to military units and humanitarian aid to the population. Ukrainian authorities are working on adapting the legal framework during martial law. РБК-Україна reports criminal cases against blogger Anna Alkhim. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on veteran health and rehabilitation efforts. Олександр Вілкул reports on direct assistance to military units and humanitarian aid in Kryvyi Rih. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the criminal proceedings against the blogger. Oleh Syniehubov reports on attending a justice forum in Kharkiv Oblast. Oфіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have taken measures to return over 18 thousand hectares of agricultural land to communities from illegal leaseholders. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on free adaptive table tennis training sessions for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia. (РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, Oфіс Генерального прокурора, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація)
Engagement with Former US President Trump: European leaders are coordinating their response to the negotiation outcome and engaging with former US President Trump. Reuters, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ, reports European leaders agreed with Zelenskyy that Russia's position is unacceptable and are coordinating with Trump. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy had a call with Trump and "coalition of the willing" leaders. РБК-Україна reports on the ex-US Ambassador's reason for resignation, citing Trump's pressure. (Reuters, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
EU Sanctions: The EU is reportedly planning the largest package of sanctions against Russia, to be discussed in Albania, targeting energy and banking sectors, the "shadow fleet," and potentially lowering the oil price cap. Discussions on the 18th package of sanctions targeting Russian energy exports are underway. WarGonzo reports on these plans. РБК-Україна reports on potential EU full trade embargo and increased artillery shell supply. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations and the 17th sanctions package. (WarGonzo, РБК-Україна, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
UN Role in Peace: The UN has welcomed the direct talks in Istanbul and hopes they lead to sustainable peace, offering support for efforts to end the conflict. ТАСС reports on the UN statements. (ТАСС)
Relationship between Military Success and Negotiations (Russian Narrative): Russian military bloggers are explicitly linking the Russian delegation's behavior in negotiations to the "successes of the Russian army on the battlefield." Два майора comments on Medinsky's statements. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Medinsky's statement blaming the West and referencing the "realities on the ground." Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, suggests that the number of Ukrainian drones and missiles in the next two nights will indicate the state of negotiations. (Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Fighterbomber)
Criticism of Western/Ukrainian Leaders (Russian Narrative): Russian military bloggers are using strong language to critique Western and Ukrainian leaders in the context of sanctions and negotiations, portraying them as against peace and motivated by negative factors. WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. (WarGonzo)
US Foreign Policy: The statement from the former US Ambassador to Ukraine citing pressure related to Trump's policy towards Ukraine and Russia indicates potential tensions and differing views within the US foreign policy establishment. РБК-Україна reports on the ex-US Ambassador's reason for resignation. (РБК-Україна)
Alleged Ukrainian Attack Plan on Poland (Unsubstantiated): Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations, which the Russian delegation dismissed. This is a report on an unsubstantiated claim made during negotiations, potentially intended to sow discord or portray the Ukrainian side negatively. (Два майора)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are actively engaged in offensive operations and utilizing various military assets, claiming advances and targeting Ukrainian positions. They claim downing Ukrainian drones and targeting strongpoints. They are also utilizing anti-tank missile systems and reportedly using TOS-1A thermobaric systems in urban areas and "Turtle Tanks" in specific assaults. Relying on public and potentially corporate support for equipment. Experiencing casualties from mines and potentially significant losses in combat, with concerns raised about the handling of fallen soldiers' burials. Claiming advancements in "Geran" drone technology and that US analysts are concerned about their effectiveness. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia direction earlier, claiming large casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that artillery from the 305th Brigade of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" Group struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremivsky direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) struck an elevator in Vovchansk. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Sever" Group continue to eliminate Ukrainian hardware and manpower in the Kharkiv region. Воин DV claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole and a tank operation there. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk with a "Kornet" missile. Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks in the South Donetsk direction, claiming the liquidation of surrounded Ukrainian forces in Bogatyr, clearing of the settlement's center, advances in Otradnoye, west of Volnoye Pole, and on the Zelenoye Pole – Novopol direction. He also reports strikes on Ukrainian logistics and reserves and claimed significant Ukrainian equipment losses. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." Военкор Котенок discusses the claimed advancements and effectiveness of "Geran" drones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky direction. Военкор Котенок and Рыбарь share videos claiming that US analysts are "extremely worried" about the increasing effectiveness of "Geran" drones. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 5th Brigade DNR, active in Donetsk Oblast. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Воин DV, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Народная милиция ДНР, Военкор Котенок, Рыбарь)
Casualties: A large-scale body exchange has taken place, with Russia receiving 34 bodies. A Russian soldier was reported injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Claims of Ukrainian losses are reported by Russian sources. A scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk highlights potential issues with managing a high number of fallen. Басурин о главном reports on the large-scale body exchange. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Colonelcassad reports claimed Ukrainian losses in the South Donetsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk. Оперативний ЗСУ claims to have captured a Russian servicemember. (Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Information Operations: Russian sources continue to engage in information operations, framing events to support their narrative, including mocking Ukrainian negotiation expectations, critiquing European leaders, and claiming US concern over "Geran" effectiveness. They are also showcasing claimed military successes, highlighting civilian support, portraying individual soldier motivations, and using historical narratives. They are also using propaganda related to the treatment of fallen soldiers and military innovation ("Turtle Tanks," "Gerans"). Russian military bloggers are explicitly linking negotiation outcomes to military activity. A propaganda book for children is being disseminated. A scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols is reported. An unsubstantiated claim about a Ukrainian attack plan on Poland made during negotiations is being disseminated. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on Мединский's statements regarding the negotiations. Fighterbomber posts a sarcastic message mocking Ukrainian negotiation expectations. Colonelcassad comments on the reactions of European leaders. Два майора shares a video clip claiming US concern over "Geran" effectiveness. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk. Alex Parker Returns shares information about demand for THC products. MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister visiting the Khatyn Memorial Complex, emphasizing historical ties. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk, which can be used to highlight perceived failures. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks," highlighting innovation. WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation, for propaganda. Военкор Котенок discusses "Geran" effectiveness and advancements, as propaganda. Два майора shares photos from a Museum of SVO tour, as propaganda. ТАСС reports on the Russian Embassy in the UK's statement, a diplomatic information operation. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Medinsky's statement blaming the West for negotiation breakdown, as information operation. ASTRA reports on a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children. Kotsnews shares a sarcastic and demeaning post about the Ukrainian delegation. Военкор Котенок and Рыбарь share videos claiming that US analysts are "extremely worried" about the increasing effectiveness of "Geran" drones. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Fighterbomber, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Народная милиция ДНР, MoD Russia, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, WarGonzo, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Kotsnews, Рыбарь)
Support for Military Personnel: Reliance on public and potentially corporate support for equipment continues, with reports of pickup truck transfers and ongoing fundraising for armor steel (previously reported). Concerns are being raised about the treatment of fallen soldiers' burials. Propaganda efforts are highlighting soldier motivations and military innovation. Fundraising for specific equipment for a DNR brigade is ongoing. A scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols is reported, highlighting potential issues with supporting military families. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives. Два майора's ongoing fundraising for steel for "Front-line armor" (2025-05-16 15:55 UTC) also highlights reliance on public support for equipment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk, highlighting concerns about honoring fallen soldiers. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation, aimed at supporting morale and recruitment. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks," potentially to boost morale by highlighting innovation. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 5th Brigade DNR. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired over a patriotic play with a swastika armband. (Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Social Issues: A report by a Russian military blogger discusses an alleged increase in demand for electronic devices with THC in Russia, potentially reflecting on social issues. A scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk highlights societal tensions related to the conflict's impact. A scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols is reported, highlighting potential internal Russian issues related to the interpretation of symbols and the treatment of individuals connected to the military. Alex Parker Returns shares information about demand for THC products. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired over a patriotic play with a swastika armband. (Alex Parker Returns, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Mine Threat: The injury of a Russian soldier by a "Lepestok" mine highlights the continued threat posed by these munitions in areas of conflict. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Infrastructure Development: Infrastructure projects are ongoing in some Russian regions. Igor Artamonov reports on infrastructure projects in Lipetsk Oblast. (Igor Artamonov)
Relations with Belarus: The Russian Defence Minister's visit to Belarus highlights continued close military and historical ties. MoD Russia shares a video of this visit. (MoD Russia)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): Local governments are providing significant direct assistance to military units, including equipment like drones and vehicles. International partners continue to discuss and implement further sanctions against Russia. Poland is reportedly preparing to transfer MiG-29s. Олександр Вілкул reports on direct assistance to military units in Kryvyi Rih. Старше Эдды reports on potential Polish MiG-29 transfer. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations and the 17th sanctions package. РБК-Україна reports on potential EU full trade embargo and increased artillery shell supply. (Олександр Вілкул, Старше Эдды, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, РБК-Україна)
Veteran Support (Ukraine): Efforts are underway to provide free medical assistance, specialized care, psychological support, and rehabilitation facilities for veterans, including a new regional center and planned veteran care cabinets (previously reported). Adaptive sports training programs are being offered. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on veteran health and rehabilitation efforts. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on free adaptive table tennis training sessions for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація)
Military Support (Russia): Reliance on public and potentially corporate support for equipment continues, with reports of pickup truck transfers and ongoing fundraising for armor steel (previously reported). Propaganda efforts are highlighting soldier motivations and military innovation to support morale and recruitment. Fundraising for specific equipment for a DNR brigade is ongoing. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives. Два майора's ongoing fundraising for steel for "Front-line armor" (2025-05-16 15:55 UTC) also highlights reliance on public support for equipment. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 5th Brigade DNR. (Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Воин DV, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Humanitarian aid, such as the distribution of free food packages, is being provided to the civilian population in areas affected by the conflict (previously reported). Reconstruction and medical support are being provided with international cooperation (previously reported). The Coordination Headquarters is working on POW and missing personnel issues, providing support to families (previously reported). Олександр Вілкул reports on humanitarian aid in Kryvyi Rih. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports on cooperation with the Czech Republic on reconstruction and medical support. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports on a call for children to participate in a summer camp in Uzbekistan. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Kherson today with artillery, causing a fire in a non-residential building, impacting civilian infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, ASTRA)
Civilian Support (Russia): Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives, which can be seen as a form of civilian support for military efforts. Infrastructure projects are ongoing in some regions. A scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols is reported, highlighting potential internal Russian issues related to the treatment of individuals connected to the military. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces, partly through civilian initiatives. Igor Artamonov reports on infrastructure projects in Lipetsk Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired over a patriotic play with a swastika armband. (Alex Parker Returns, Igor Artamonov, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Reconstruction and Recovery (Ukraine): Cooperation with international partners, such as the Czech Republic, is ongoing for reconstruction and recovery efforts, including support for critical infrastructure, education, and the medical sector (previously reported). Legal actions are being taken to return communal agricultural land. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports on cooperation with the Czech Republic on reconstruction and medical support. Oфіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have taken measures to return over 18 thousand hectares of agricultural land to communities from illegal leaseholders. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Oфіс Генерального прокурора)
Prisoner of War Issues: A "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange is being prepared. A large-scale body exchange has taken place. The Coordination Headquarters is looking for participants for a children's camp in Uzbekistan, potentially related to families of servicemembers or affected by the conflict. РБК-Україна reports on a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange being prepared, citing Вадим Скібіцький of GUR. Басурин о главном reports on a large-scale body exchange, stating Russia received 34 bodies and transferred 909 Ukrainian bodies. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports on a call for children to participate in a summer camp in Uzbekistan. Оперативний ЗСУ claims to have captured a Russian servicemember. РБК-Україна reports on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, discussing prisoner exchange. (РБК-Україна, Басурин о главном, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults, inflicting casualties, and claiming downing of Russian aerial assets, including a Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone in Russian territory, but also reportedly lost an F-16. Utilizing drones for various purposes, including targeting Russian equipment and personnel, and reportedly destroying Russian equipment in Belgorod Oblast. Seeking diplomatic solutions but maintaining their stance on key issues and viewing Russian demands as unacceptable. Preparing for a prisoner exchange and participating in a large-scale body exchange. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian attacks, including shelling and drone attacks. Experiencing ongoing counterintelligence efforts (criminal cases against a blogger, detention of alleged FSB agents). Receiving direct assistance from local governments, including equipment. Receiving support from international partners for reconstruction and medical needs. Facing the continued threat of anti-personnel mines. Working on adapting the legal framework during martial law. Polish MiG-29s are potentially being transferred. Volunteer legions are involved in combat and capturing Russian soldiers. Countering Russian information operations regarding territorial gains. Taking legal actions to return communal agricultural land. Utilizing adaptive sports for veteran rehabilitation. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports Russian FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol district. Олександр Вілкул, citing the Ukrainian General Staff, reports significant Russian personnel and equipment losses on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone. РБК-Україна reports criminal cases against blogger Anna Alkhim. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on veteran health and rehabilitation efforts. Олександр Вілкул reports on direct assistance to military units and humanitarian aid. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports damage to the railway station building in Kherson from shelling. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the criminal proceedings against the blogger. Oleh Syniehubov reports on attending a justice forum in Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine lost an F-16. ASTRA reports Russian shelling and fire in Kherson. Оперативний ЗСУ claims to have captured a Russian servicemember. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian equipment in Belgorod Oblast with drones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 and Николаевский Ванёк report on the situation in Torske, citing the commander of the 63rd Brigade. Oфіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have taken measures to return over 18 thousand hectares of agricultural land to communities from illegal leaseholders. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on free adaptive table tennis training sessions for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno and STERNENKO share videos claiming Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with a drone using an air detonation tactic in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, ASTRA, STERNENKO, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Oфіс Генерального прокурора, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Николаевский Ванёк)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming advances and utilizing various military assets, including artillery, tactical aviation, drones (including FPV and potentially TOS-1A thermobaric systems in urban areas), anti-tank missile systems, and "Turtle Tanks." Claiming downing of Ukrainian drones and targeting strongpoints. Relying on public and potentially corporate support for equipment. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda. Experiencing casualties from mines and potentially significant losses, with concerns raised about the handling of fallen soldiers' burials. Maintaining a stance in negotiations that emphasizes previous agreements and rejects a ceasefire as a precondition. Participating in a large-scale body exchange and preparing for a prisoner exchange. Claiming advancements in "Geran" drone technology and that US analysts are concerned about their effectiveness. Conducting infrastructure projects in some regions. Maintaining close military ties with Belarus. Accusing British authorities of trying to derail negotiations. Disseminating a propaganda book for children. Experiencing a scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols. Disseminating an unsubstantiated claim about a Ukrainian attack plan on Poland made during negotiations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia direction earlier, claiming large casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that artillery struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremivsky direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) struck an elevator in Vovchansk. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Sever" Group continue to eliminate Ukrainian hardware and manpower in the Kharkiv region. Воин DV claims the liberation of Volnoye Pole and a tank operation there. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk with a "Kornet" missile. Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks in the South Donetsk direction, claiming the liquidation of surrounded Ukrainian forces in Bogatyr, clearing of the settlement's center, advances in Otradnoye, west of Volnoye Pole, and on the Zelenoye Pole – Novopol direction. He also reports strikes on Ukrainian logistics and reserves and claimed significant Ukrainian equipment losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." WarGonzo reports on EU sanction plans and critiques Western/Ukrainian leaders. Воин DV shares a narrative on a soldier's motivation. Военкор Котенок discusses "Geran" effectiveness and advancements. Два майора shares photos from a Museum of SVO tour. Igor Artamonov reports on infrastructure projects in Lipetsk Oblast. MoD Russia shares a video of the Russian Defence Minister visiting the Khatyn Memorial Complex in Belarus. ТАСС reports on the Russian Embassy in the UK's statement. ASTRA reports Russian shelling and fire in Kherson. ASTRA reports on a Russian propaganda book "Military Alphabet" for children in Altai Krai. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky direction. Военкор Котенок and Рыбарь share videos claiming that US analysts are "extremely worried" about the increasing effectiveness of "Geran" drones. Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 5th Brigade DNR, active in Donetsk Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Saratov, Russia, where a teacher was allegedly fired and questioned by the prosecutor's office for including a character with a swastika armband in a patriotic play about WWII. Два майора reports, citing another source, that a Ukrainian delegation member claimed Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030 during negotiations. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Воин DV, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Народная милиция ДНР, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, WarGonzo, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, Igor Artamonov, ТАСС, ASTRA, Рыбарь, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. the US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are providing military aid to Ukraine, including potentially Polish MiG-29s. The Czech Republic is cooperating with Ukraine on reconstruction and medical support. The UN is involved in welcoming talks and offering support for peace efforts. The EU is discussing further sanctions. France has commented on Russia's stance at negotiations. ТАСС reports on Turkish facilitation. РБК-Україна and ТАСС report on US engagement. ТАСС and РБК-Україна report on Trump speculation. Українські джерела повідомляють про участь у зустрічі з Трампом лідерів "коаліції охочих". Старше Эдды reports on potential Polish MiG-29 transfer. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports on cooperation with the Czech Republic on reconstruction and medical support. UN is involved in welcoming talks. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron stated Russia's refusal of a ceasefire indicates a desire to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response. Зеленський / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share videos of Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, discussing the Istanbul negotiations and sanctions. (ТАСС, Reuters, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, UN, Зеленський / Official, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides, including FPV drones and reportedly "Baba-Yaga" types. Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs, artillery, MLRS, potentially TOS-1A thermobaric systems in urban areas, anti-tank missile systems, and "Turtle Tanks." Ukrainian forces are utilizing drones for targeting and have claimed the downing of a Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone in Russian territory, highlighting the effectiveness of asymmetric tactics, and reportedly lost an F-16. Russian forces are attempting to counter Ukrainian drone capabilities by claiming downing of "Baba-Yaga" drones and using FPV drones. The threat of anti-personnel mines ("Lepestok") continues. Equipment transfers and fundraising for military needs are ongoing. Poland is reportedly transferring MiG-29s. Russian propaganda highlights claimed advancements in "Geran" drones. Ukrainian forces claim a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system. Russian forces are claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky and Kherson directions. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак reports Russian FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol district, including "Grad" MLRS. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reported significant Russian drone, artillery, and RSZO activity in Zaporizhzhia direction earlier. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that artillery struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremivsky direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that a "Solntsepyok" (TOS-1A) struck an elevator in Vovchansk. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that UAV operators continue to eliminate Ukrainian hardware and manpower in the Kharkiv region. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming the downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone (likely the incident claimed by STERNENKO and КіберБорошно). Воин DV claims a tank operation in Volnoye Pole. Alex Parker Returns reports on the transfer of 50 pickup trucks to Russian forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video reporting a soldier injured by a "Lepestok" mine. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian strongpoint near Dzerzhinsk with a "Kornet" missile. Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks in the South Donetsk direction, claiming destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles with FPV drones and other equipment. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine lost an F-16. Colonelcassad discusses the effectiveness of "Turtle Tanks." Военкор Котенок discusses the claimed advancements and effectiveness of "Geran" drones. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian equipment in Belgorod Oblast with drones. Старше Эдды reports on potential Polish MiG-29 transfer. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian aviation strike on a hangar in Cherkaske, Kherson Oblast, destroying Ukrainian equipment. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky direction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a successful strike on a Russian Buk-M1 air defense system. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno and STERNENKO share videos claiming Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with a drone using an air detonation tactic in Kursk Oblast, Russia. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Народная милиция ДНР, РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, STERNENKO, Старше Эдды, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The conclusion of the initial round of direct negotiations in Istanbul with a confirmed pause, Russia's refusal of a temporary truce, and the Ukrainian MFA confirming new unacceptable Russian demands underscore the significant strategic gap between the parties and suggest that military pressure will continue to be a primary tool for both sides. Ukraine's pursuit of a leader-level meeting with Putin indicates their strategic focus on seeking a diplomatic breakthrough at the highest level. Russia's emphasis on reminding Ukraine of previous agreements and stating that war and negotiations occur simultaneously reinforces their strategic position of maintaining military pressure while engaging in limited diplomatic exchanges. The Ukrainian MFA's statement about unacceptable Russian points highlights the challenging nature of future negotiations. European leaders viewing the Russian stance as unacceptable and coordinating their response with the US, including engagement with former US President Trump, indicates a unified strategic front among these key international partners. The UN's welcome of the direct talks and hope for sustainable peace offers an international perspective and potential avenue for future engagement. Russia's continued blaming of the West for the breakdown of the "Istanbul project" is a strategic narrative aimed at shifting responsibility. French President Macron's statement that Russia's refusal of a ceasefire shows they want to gain time and continue the war, and that the West will prepare a response, reinforces the united Western stance and signals potential further action. Ukrainian delegation member Kyslytsya's statement that the next step should be a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and that pressure on Russia must continue outlines the Ukrainian strategic diplomatic approach. His statement that Putin alone can solve issues in Russia highlights the perceived centralized decision-making in Russia, which is strategically relevant for understanding the Russian negotiating position.
The continued high tempo of ground combat and widespread Russian aerial activity, including the use of guided bombs, drones, artillery, MLRS, potentially TOS-1A systems, and "Turtle Tanks," demonstrate Russia's commitment to achieving its objectives through force. Claims of Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly the detailed claims in the South Donetsk direction, if verified, would represent a continued strategic effort to achieve territorial gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces in key areas, including potentially cutting off logistics routes. Ukraine's reports of repelling a high number of assaults and inflicting significant losses, particularly the detailed losses reported on the Pokrovsk direction, indicate strong defensive resistance and highlight the costly nature of the Russian offensive for both sides. The claimed downing of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone in Russian territory is strategically important for degrading Russian capabilities and highlighting Ukrainian effectiveness in asymmetric warfare and potentially extended-range drone capabilities, but the reported loss of a Ukrainian F-16 highlights the risks for Ukraine's air force. The continued use of FPV drones and other UAVs by both sides underscores the strategic importance of these technologies in modern warfare. Russian discussions of "Turtle Tanks" and "Geran" advancements are part of a strategic effort to highlight their adaptability and technological progress. Russian claims of US analysts being concerned about "Geran" effectiveness are part of this information operation. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian equipment in the Krasnolimansky and Kherson directions contribute to their narrative of success. The Ukrainian claim of destroying a Russian Buk-M1 is strategically important for degrading Russian air defense capabilities.
The preparation for a "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange is a significant humanitarian and strategic development, demonstrating a willingness to find limited areas of agreement despite the broader conflict and potentially influencing morale and international perception. The large-scale body exchange also underscores the human cost and is strategically relevant for addressing humanitarian concerns and information operations. The significant disparity in the number of bodies exchanged can be used in information operations by both sides to influence perceptions of casualties.
Reports of Russian military blogger discussions on negotiation stances and attributing them to battlefield successes highlight the strategic link between military performance and diplomatic positioning in the Russian narrative. Fighterbomber's suggestion that the number of Ukrainian drones and missiles will indicate the state of negotiations explicitly links military activity (specifically Ukrainian strikes) to the perceived success or failure of the negotiations, reflecting a Russian perspective on the relationship between military pressure and diplomacy.
Internal Ukrainian counterintelligence efforts, such as criminal cases against a blogger suspected of state treason and detention of alleged FSB agents, are strategically important for national security and disrupting Russian influence and intelligence gathering. Oleh Syniehubov's participation in a justice forum in Kharkiv highlights the strategic importance Ukraine places on maintaining and adapting its legal framework during wartime, particularly in frontline regions, which is crucial for governance and international integration. Oфіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have taken measures to return over 18 thousand hectares of agricultural land to communities from illegal leaseholders, a strategic effort to restore state control over communal assets.
Local government initiatives in Ukraine providing direct assistance to military units with equipment and humanitarian aid to the population are strategically important for bolstering defense capabilities, maintaining morale, and supporting the civilian population impacted by the conflict.
International cooperation with Ukraine on reconstruction and medical support, as seen with the Czech Republic's engagement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, is strategically important for Ukraine's long-term recovery and resilience. The potential transfer of Polish MiG-29s is significant military aid, enhancing Ukraine's air capabilities. Zelenskiy's discussions with EU leaders about sanctions highlight ongoing diplomatic efforts to maintain and increase international pressure on Russia. РБК-Україна reports on potential EU full trade embargo and increased artillery shell supply, indicating the potential for further significant international support.
The continued reliance on public and potentially corporate support for equipment by some Russian military units, as evidenced by reports of pickup truck transfers and fundraising for armor, suggests potential limitations or inefficiencies in official Russian military supply chains, which could have strategic implications for sustaining operations. The fundraising for motorcycles for a DNR brigade is an example of this reliance.
Information operations remain a significant strategic tool for both sides, aiming to influence domestic and international perceptions of the conflict, justify actions, and demoralize the opponent. The various Russian information operations related to negotiations, European leaders, and claimed US concern over "Geran" effectiveness are examples of this ongoing strategic effort. Russian claims of military successes, highlighting civilian support for the military, portraying individual soldier motivations, discussing military innovation ("Turtle Tanks," "Gerans"), and using historical narratives (Khatyn Memorial) also serve strategic information purposes. The scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk, if widely disseminated, could have strategic implications for domestic support and morale in Russia. The Russian Embassy's statement blaming the UK for derailing negotiations is a diplomatic information operation. The Russian propaganda book for children is a form of early indoctrination. The scandal in Saratov related to a patriotic play and symbols highlights potential internal Russian issues and can be used in information operations. The unsubstantiated claim about a Ukrainian attack plan on Poland made during negotiations, if disseminated, is a clear instance of information operation. Kotsnews' sarcastic post about the Ukrainian delegation is also an information operation.
The reported damage to civilian infrastructure from shelling, such as the railway station in Kherson and damages in Nikopol district, and the fire in Kherson from artillery shelling, highlights the ongoing strategic impact of Russian actions on civilian life and infrastructure.
The continued threat posed by anti-personnel mines, as highlighted by the reported injury of a Russian soldier by a "Lepestok" mine, has strategic implications for freedom of movement, risk to both military and civilian personnel, and the long-term challenge of demining.
Discussions and potential actions related to demand for THC products in Russia, while a social issue, could have indirect strategic implications if it impacts military personnel or societal stability.
Infrastructure development in Russian regions, as reported by Igor Artamonov, while seemingly domestic, can be strategically relevant by demonstrating the government's ability to manage internal affairs and potentially allocate resources.
The Russian Defence Minister's visit to Belarus and visit to the Khatyn Memorial Complex highlights the strategic importance of Russia's relationship with Belarus and the use of shared historical narratives in strengthening ties and potentially mobilizing support.
The potential transfer of Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine is a significant strategic development, providing Ukraine with additional combat aircraft which are crucial for air defense, close air support, and other aerial operations.
The scandal regarding the burial of Russian servicemembers in Volgodonsk is strategically significant as it raises questions about casualty management, the treatment of fallen soldiers, and potential impacts on morale and public perception within Russia.
The Ukrainian volunteer legion claiming to capture a Russian servicemember is a tactical action with potential strategic implications for intelligence gathering and prisoner exchanges.
The claimed advancements in "Geran" drone technology by Russian sources, if accurate, could have significant strategic implications for the air war and the effectiveness of Russian aerial attacks. The claims of US analysts being concerned about this effectiveness are part of this strategic information operation.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report