Sitrep 2025-05-16 03:11:41

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 16, 2025, 03:05 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, persistent Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across a wide swathe of Ukraine, and complex diplomatic maneuverings. Updated information details the continued movement of Russian drones across Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Черкаси, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, with westward or southwestward trajectories being dominant. Specific drone threat warnings have been issued for Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Uman, and Vinnytsia cities/oblasts. Drones from the Black Sea off the coast of occupied Kherson continue to be reported, with these platforms moving westward/northwestward and explicitly targeting Odesa Oblast, particularly the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district. Threat warnings have also been issued for Cherkasy Oblast from the east. While five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi were reported as "minus" (suggesting potential successful interception), a new wave of drone activity across multiple oblasts, including movement through key areas like Nova Kakhovka, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kremenchuk, Krasnohrad, Pryluky, Nizhyn, and towards Konotop, indicates a sustained and shifting aerial offensive. Diplomatic efforts regarding potential Istanbul negotiations are ongoing and complex, marked by conflicting reports and accusations. Germany has declared a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th, linking this to Putin's alleged failure to appear at the Istanbul talks and President Zelenskyy's gesture of attending. This signifies continued international pressure on Russia. Russia continues to assert tactical gains and territorial liberation, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and reports successful defensive actions and equipment destruction. Ukraine reports actively defending, inflicting losses, and effectively employing drone warfare. Internal Russian issues, such as military command changes, legal proceedings, and social commentary, persist. Claims of alleged unconventional Ukrainian mine tactics near Kremennaya have emerged. A notable incident with potential international implications involves the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson. International military exercises and aid provisions continue to be reported. A pro-Russian source has shared documents and commentary alleging that the Ukrainian government is prioritizing the conservation and potential transfer of agricultural and forest resources in northern and southern oblasts to British and American allies, framing this as preparation for the loss of territory and linking it to the timing of potential negotiations. This source also includes commentary questioning the Ukrainian government's actions and referencing internal Ukrainian discussions on the matter. Russia is reportedly experiencing a reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites, with a decrease of 15-20% in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to slowed construction and tightened migration policy. Russian officials are proposing increased taxes on luxury and high incomes. Two Czech citizens have been detained at the Baikonur Cosmodrome for attempting to access and photograph a rocket. A court in Russia has arrested one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. A Russian official is proposing alcohol be removed from store displays. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars by purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers, highlighting potential issues with military procurement and effectiveness. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast, indicating the expansion of KAB usage to this border region. Updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs provides detailed trajectories and locations across numerous oblasts, including western Poltava, central Sumy, southern Chernihiv, northeastern and southeastern Черкаси, northeastern Kirovohrad, eastern Mykolaiv, the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv, occupied Kherson towards Kherson city, and new groups entering Sumy from Kursk. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward, indicating a direct aerial threat to the capital region. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for areas under air raid alert, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. A Russian strike UAV is specifically reported moving towards Kyiv from the southeast. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier alleges issues within the Ukrainian military regarding equipment provision (soldiers having to buy their own) and poor command and control resulting in friendly fire. This is presented as "proof" of issues with Ukrainian mobilization and could be part of a broader Russian information operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and their supporters and portray Ukrainian recruitment efforts negatively. The video frames the captured soldier as a victim of Ukrainian "man-catchers" (TCCs), a derogatory term used by pro-Russian sources for Ukrainian recruitment officers. Reports from Russian sources allege that the military commissar (военком) who previously assaulted a teacher in Kharkiv is still involved in recruiting activities, now reportedly operating in plain clothes. This, if accurate, highlights persistent issues and concerns regarding aggressive recruitment tactics within Ukraine, particularly in areas under direct threat. This information is framed by Russian sources as an example of the Ukrainian government's methods for conscription. A Russian official, Yaroslav Nilov, has proposed that the education of migrant children in Russia should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Marco Rubio has stated that NATO countries will agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next ten years. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Uman, moving from the northeast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast regarding ballistic missile threat has been cleared. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Vinnytsia, moving from the east. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes. The threat of ballistic missile use across previously alerted areas has been cleared, although the drone threat persists in areas under alert. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that assault units used only small arms during the liberation of Mykhailivka. Ukrainian forces have had success near Toretsk, while Russian forces are pushing near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in central Poltava, eastern Chernihiv, northern Kyiv, western and southern Cherkasy, northwestern Kirovohrad, northern Vinnytsia, and eastern Zhytomyr Oblasts. Russia has again brought the former leader of the group "Tarakan!" Dmitry Spirin to administrative responsibility for not submitting information about a foreign agent. Boris Rozhin provides a pro-Russian analysis of the composition of the Russian delegation for negotiations in Istanbul, highlighting the inclusion of military specialists and framing it within the context of Russia's assessment of the Ukrainian government as "terrorist." Air raid alert for Kyiv has been cleared. Russian strike UAVs are primarily observed in Poltava Oblast, moving westward/southwestward. A threat of aviation weapon use has been declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to present evidence of "atrocities" by the Ukrainian regime in Kursk Oblast, featuring a resident who alleges Ukrainian FPV drone strikes on civilians (including a family with a child holding a white flag), looting by Ukrainian military and civilians from Sumy Oblast, targeting of civilian infrastructure (hospital, substation, homes), killing of elderly residents, and abduction of a young woman, as well as shelling of evacuation routes and removal of bodies to hide evidence. This video is presented as material for an "International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" and is a significant Russian information operation aiming to portray Ukrainian forces as committing war crimes and atrocities against Russian civilians. TASS reports that investigators from the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not find a foreign passport and an Israeli passport belonging to the founder of "Rusagro," Vadim Moshkovich, during a search, according to case materials. This indicates an internal Russian legal investigation targeting a prominent businessman, potentially related to financial matters or other allegations.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Air Raid Alert Cleared for Kyiv: The air raid alert for the city of Kyiv has been lifted, as reported by KMVA and RBC-Ukraine.
Updated Russian Drone Location (Poltava): The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian strike UAVs are currently observed in Poltava Oblast, moving westward/southwestward. This provides a real-time update on the location and trajectory of the drone threat.
Threat of Aviation Weapon Use (Dnipropetrovsk): The Ukrainian Air Force has declared a threat of aviation weapon use for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). This indicates potential Russian air activity or strikes in this specific area.
New Russian Information Operation (Kursk Allegations): Colonelcassad has shared a video presenting alleged "evidence" of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. The video features a resident making serious accusations against Ukrainian forces and Polish mercenaries, including targeting civilians with drones, looting, targeting civilian infrastructure, and committing killings and abductions. This is a significant new element in the information war, aimed at portraying Ukrainian forces as war criminals and likely intended to justify Russian actions and potentially influence domestic and international opinion.
Internal Russian Legal Investigation (Businessman): TASS reports on an internal legal investigation by the Ministry of Internal Affairs targeting Vadim Moshkovich, founder of "Rusagro." The failure to locate his foreign and Israeli passports during a search is noted. This highlights ongoing internal legal actions against prominent figures in Russia.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Siversk, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka, Kotlyarivka, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Mykhailivka, Lyman direction, Velyka Novosilka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims tactical gains and liberation, including the alleged liberation of Mykhailivka using only small arms by assault units. Ukraine reports actively defending, inflicting losses, and effectively employing drone warfare. Russian forces continue aerial strikes with KABs. Russian VDV are reportedly gaining air superiority over Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad shares photos and analysis alleging Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines behind Pokrovsk towards Dobropillia, indicating anticipated pressure on Pokrovsk and Ukrainian defensive preparations in this area. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast moving westward. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that assault units used only small arms during the liberation of Mykhailivka. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. Ukrainian forces have had success near Toretsk. Russian forces are pushing near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Kharkiv Oblast (including Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Krasnohrad): Affected by Russian aerial and ground assaults. Russian forces are reportedly conducting offensive actions, with claims of seizing fortified areas near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the central and eastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast moving westward/southwestward. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by FPV drones. This is a claim of successful tactical engagement and equipment destruction by Russian forces in an area of ongoing Russian offensive pressure. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central and southern parts of Kharkiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports four drones moving on/through Krasnohrad. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central and southern parts of Kharkiv Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four drones moving on/through Krasnohrad. Allegations of continued aggressive recruitment tactics in Kharkiv have been reported by Russian sources.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border): Ongoing conflict with reported Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counterattacks. Russian strike UAVs are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, with a westward/southwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on new groups of Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy from Kursk. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to present evidence of "atrocities" by the Ukrainian regime in Kursk Oblast, featuring a resident making serious allegations against Ukrainian forces and Polish mercenaries, including targeting civilians, looting, and killings. This indicates a new front in the information war focusing on alleged events in this border region.
Sumy Oblast (including Konotop): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Russian strike UAVs are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, with a westward/southwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast, with a southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports updated drone movement in the Sumy region. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports ten new drones coursing on/through Konotop. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy from Kursk. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast, course - southwestern/southwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast, course - southwestern/southwestern. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a resident of Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) alleging looting by civilians from Sumy Oblast during Ukrainian incursions. This is part of a Russian information operation.
Mykolaiv Oblast (including Snyhyrvivka): Affected by Russian drone attacks. Russian strike UAVs are being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course, which could potentially target Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four new drones through Nova Kakhovka towards Snyhyrvivka. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea, course - northern (Mykolaiv Oblast). The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the northern part of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the northern part of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northwestern part of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - northern.
Kirovohrad Oblast (including Kryvyi Rih): Affected by potential drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs from the east in Kirovohrad Oblast. This signifies potential or ongoing drone activity in this central Ukrainian region. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east in Kirovohrad Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports one drone north of Kryvyi Rih transitioning into Kirovohrad Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northeastern part of Kirovohrad Oblast, course - northwestern. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northeastern part of Kirovohrad Oblast, course - northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kirovohrad Oblast, course - western/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kirovohrad Oblast, course - western/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northwestern part of Kirovohrad Oblast, course - northern.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued intense fighting with Russian assaults and Ukrainian defenses. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the northern and southern parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A general air raid alert has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast regarding ballistic missile threat has been cleared.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Pavlohrad, Samara area, Synelnykivskyi district): Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed ground advances by Russian forces. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the east and warns of enemy strike UAVs in Pavlohrad. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a southwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the northern and southern parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a southward/northward-westward course. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports six drones north of Самара, moving westward. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports six drones north of Samara moving westward. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - southwest. A threat of aviation weapon use has been declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). This indicates potential Russian air strikes in this specific area.
Vinnytsia Oblast (including Vinnytsia City): Affected by potential drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones previously in other areas are moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east in Vinnytsia Oblast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia Oblast, course - western/northwestern. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Vinnytsia, moving from the east. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - northern/northeastern.
Tripoli (Libya): Experiencing armed clashes and fighting.
Lithuania: International military exercises are taking place.
Hungarian-Ukrainian Border: Unconfirmed reports suggest potential for increased tension.
Chechnya (Russia): Reports on internal political developments and significant construction projects.
Odesa Oblast (including Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Karolino-Buhaz / Zatoka): Affected by potential drone activity. Russian strike UAVs are targeting Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course, which could potentially target Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones passed through the Zatoka area and are now flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports all five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi have been accounted for (minus), suggesting potential successful interception. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
Chernihiv Oblast (including Chernihiv City, Pryluky area, Nizhyn area): Affected by Russian aerial activity. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs on the east of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course, and warns of UAVs moving towards Chernihiv city from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports 14 drones moving on/through Pryluky and six drones moving on/through Nizhyn. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports one drone south of Chernihiv. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Chernihiv Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports 14 drones moving on/through Pryluky and six drones moving on/through Nizhyn, and one drone south of Chernihiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones from southern Chernihiv Oblast moving towards eastern Kyiv and northern Poltava. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the south of Chernihiv Oblast, course - southwestern. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the south of Chernihiv Oblast, course - southwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the south of Chernihiv Oblast, course - southwestern/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the south of Chernihiv Oblast, course - southwestern/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Chernihivshchyna, course - southwestern.
Kherson Oblast (including occupied territories, Kherson City, Nova Kakhovka): Affected by Russian shelling, Ukrainian drone activity, and reported Russian military training. Russian strike UAVs are being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on Russian strike UAVs from occupied territories towards Kherson. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four new drones through Nova Kakhovka towards Snyhyrvivka. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, course - Kherson city. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, course - Kherson city.
Occupied Territories: Affected by Ukrainian drone activity and Russian mine clearing operations, and claimed Russian advances. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources in occupied territories. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs towards Kherson from occupied territories. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four new drones through Nova Kakhovka (occupied territory) towards Snyhyrvivka. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, course - Kherson city. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, course - Kherson city.
London (UK): Affected by alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a 21-year-old Ukrainian citizen in connection with alleged arson, including at the British Prime Minister's residence.
Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): Affected by alleged Ukrainian drone attacks. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR.
Western Ukraine: Affected by alleged Russian strikes.
Gaza: Affected by bombing, resulting in the death of Russian citizens.
Saransk (Russia): Previously reported as a target of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Estonia: Hosting military exercises with NATO involvement.
Dobropillia (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad's analysis alleges Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines towards Dobropillia from Pokrovsk.
Black Sea: Affected by Russian drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson towards Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea, course - northern (Mykolaiv Oblast). The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea, course - northern (Mykolaiv Oblast). TASS reports six UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea by the governor of Sevastopol.
Cherkasy Oblast (including Uman): The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs from the east. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports updated drone movement potentially impacting Cherkasy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports three drones eastern of Cherkasy and three drones northern of Cherkasy. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northeastern and southeastern parts of Черкащина, course - western/southwestern/northwestern. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northeastern and southeastern parts of Черкащина, course - western/southwestern/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the northwest and south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/southwestern/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the northwest and south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/southwestern/northwestern. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Uman, moving from the northeast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the west and on the south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/northwestern.
Krasnohrad (Kharkiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four drones moving on/through Krasnohrad.
Samara area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports six drones north of Samara, moving westward.
Kremenchuk area (Poltava Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports seven drones north of Kremenchuk.
Pryluky area (Chernihiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports 14 drones moving on/through Pryluky.
Nizhyn area (Chernihiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports six drones moving on/through Nizhyn.
Telgram Chat (potentially from Zalyutino, Kharkiv): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes an analysis of a Telegram chat discussing Ukrainian government actions and resource management.
Verona (Italy): Previously reported on a Ukraine Recovery Conference.
Sheremetyevo airport (Moscow, Russia): TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" here.
Baikonur Cosmodrome (Kazakhstan): Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Czech citizens here.
Snyhyrvivka (Mykolaiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports four new drones through Nova Kakhovka towards Snyhyrvivka.
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports one drone north of Kryvyi Rih.
Myrhorod area (Poltava Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports two drones northern of Myrhorod moving westward.
Konotop area (Sumy Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёk" reports ten new drones coursing on/through Konotop.
Kyiv Oblast (including Kyiv City): The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones from southern Chernihiv Oblast moving towards eastern Kyiv. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for Kyiv. An air raid alert has been declared for Kyiv. A Russian strike UAV is reported moving towards Kyiv from the southeast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - western/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - western/northwestern. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for Kyiv. The threat of ballistic missile use across previously alerted areas has been cleared. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - western/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in the west and southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - western/northwestern. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the north of Kyivshchyna, course - northern. Air raid alert for Kyiv has been cleared.
Ufa (Russia): A suspect has been detained here for robbery allegedly committed under the instruction of scammers. This highlights an internal crime incident in Russia.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course - northeastern.
Great Novosilka area (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces are pushing near Velyka Novosilka according to ISW.
Sevastopol (Crimea, occupied): TASS reports six UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea by the governor of Sevastopol. This indicates Ukrainian drone activity targeting this area.
Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): A threat of aviation weapon use has been declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district).

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains highly significant, with widespread Russian and Ukrainian drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and warnings of strikes from occupied Kherson. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Colonelcassad reports alleged Ukrainian mine usage involving drones and claims of Russian drone strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force provides an updated overview of the location and course of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts and warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. RBC-Ukraine shares an air alarm map showing widespread drone activity across Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones across multiple oblasts, highlighting a new wave of activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones passed through the Zatoka area and are now flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports all five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi have been accounted for (minus), suggesting potential successful interception. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, including from southern Chernihiv Oblast towards eastern Kyiv and northern Poltava, and towards Kherson from occupied territories. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides further detailed and updated information on drone movements across numerous oblasts, including specific numbers and trajectories. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts, including western Poltava, central Sumy, southern Chernihiv, northeastern and southeastern Черкаси, northeastern Kirovohrad, eastern Mykolaiv, the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv, occupied Kherson towards Kherson city, and new groups entering Sumy from Kursk. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. A Russian strike UAV is reported moving towards Kyiv from the southeast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east in Vinnytsia Oblast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - northern/northeastern; on the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course - northeastern; on the north of Kyivshchyna, course - northern; on the west and on the south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/northwestern; on the northwestern part of Kirovohradshchyna, course - northern; on the central part of Poltavshchyna, course - southwestern/western; on the east of Chernihivshchyna, course - southwestern; and on the east of Dnipropetrovshchyna, course - southwest. TASS reports six UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea by the governor of Sevastopol. Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian strike UAVs are currently observed in Poltava Oblast, moving westward/southwestward, indicating a continued threat in this region. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian FPV drone struck a civilian vehicle in Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian "atrocities" using drones. This is part of a Russian information operation.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces, particularly on Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. A threat of aviation weapon use has been declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). This indicates potential Russian air strikes or the use of aviation-delivered munitions in this area.
Missile Activity: Russian Missile Troops are conducting strikes. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for areas under air raid alert, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A threat of ballistic missile use has been declared for Kyiv. The threat of ballistic missile use across previously alerted areas has been cleared.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported, but the presence of Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson is noted. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson towards Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea, course - northern (Mykolaiv Oblast). The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea, course - northern (Mykolaiv Oblast). TASS reports six UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea by the governor of Sevastopol. This indicates Ukrainian drone activity targeting this area.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats. Russian air defense systems are claiming interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. "Николаевский Ванёk"'s report that five drones previously heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi are now "minus" suggests potential successful interception or neutralization of these specific threats. This is a positive development for Ukraine's air defense in that region. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - northern/northeastern; on the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course - northeastern; on the north of Kyivshchyna, course - northern; on the west and on the south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/northwestern; on the northwestern part of Kirovohradshchyna, course - northern; on the central part of Poltavshchyna, course - southwestern/western; on the east of Chernihivshchyna, course - southwestern; and on the east of Dnipropetrovshchyna, course - southwest. TASS reports six UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea by the governor of Sevastopol. This indicates successful Russian air defense actions against Ukrainian drones targeting Sevastopol.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire.
Mine Warfare: Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR and describes Ukrainian tactics including mining approaches to defensive lines and remote mining with "Baba Yaga" drones. This highlights the ongoing and evolving use of mine warfare.
Defensive Obstacles: Colonelcassad shares photos and analysis of alleged Ukrainian construction of reserve defensive lines utilizing concrete anti-tank obstacles ("dragon's teeth," "hedgehogs") and concertina wire barriers behind Pokrovsk. This provides visual evidence and analysis of defensive engineering efforts.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions and preparations for negotiations in Istanbul continue. Russia reiterates its claim of waiting for talks and accuses Ukraine of delaying, attributing US influence in bringing Ukraine to the table. Speculation regarding a potential Trump-Putin meeting continues. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates continued US involvement at a potentially higher level than previously reported. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary linking alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer to the timing of potential negotiations, framing it within a narrative of the US rushing to secure assets before territorial changes, likely intended to influence perceptions of the diplomatic process. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th, linking this to Putin's non-appearance at the Istanbul talks despite Zelenskyy's presence, framing Putin's non-appearance negatively. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers, highlighting potential issues with military procurement and effectiveness. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined. Boris Rozhin provides a pro-Russian analysis of the Russian negotiation delegation for Istanbul, highlighting the inclusion of military specialists and framing it in the context of Russia's assessment of the Ukrainian government.
International Support for Ukraine: International military exercises are taking place. The US and European partners are discussing settlement prospects. Limitations on certain military aid (Taurus missiles from Germany) are noted. FIFA is providing support. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson, which could impact international relations and support. Politico reports concerns in the EU about the potential for a bloc of leaders to oppose support for Kyiv, and TASS reports on this Politico article. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares information operation alleging the Ukrainian government plans to transfer valuable agricultural and forest resources in northern and southern oblasts to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing it negatively. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers. Marco Rubio has stated that NATO countries will agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next ten years.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul. Russia is engaged in information operations regarding the negotiations. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary linking alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer to the timing of potential negotiations. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th, linking this to Putin's non-appearance at the Istanbul talks despite Zelenskyy's presence. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined. Boris Rozhin provides a pro-Russian analysis of the Russian negotiation delegation for Istanbul, highlighting the inclusion of military specialists and framing it in the context of Russia's assessment of the Ukrainian government.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Discussions around peace and diplomacy continue at high levels. Internal responses to Russian statements are noted. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary referencing alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer and their reception within Ukraine, potentially highlighting internal discussions or dissent. Allegations of continued aggressive recruitment tactics in Kharkiv have been reported by Russian sources.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: High-level military command changes have occurred. Information operations are ongoing. Construction projects are being highlighted. Internal legal and security issues are present. A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported. Colonelcassad is actively disseminating information and analysis regarding the conflict and Ukrainian actions, which is part of Russian information operations. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv, which also contributes to information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources and linking them to potential territorial changes and the role of Western allies, aimed at influencing perceptions of Ukraine and the conflict. TASS reports that Sergey Mironov is proposing increased taxes on luxury and high incomes. TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites in Russia in the first quarter of 2025. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children in Russia should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A court in Russia has arrested one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. A Russian official is proposing alcohol be removed from store displays. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes. Russia has again brought the former leader of the group "Tarakan!" Dmitry Spirin to administrative responsibility for not submitting information about a foreign agent. This highlights the ongoing enforcement of legislation targeting individuals deemed foreign agents. TASS reports that investigators from the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not find a foreign passport and an Israeli passport belonging to the founder of "Rusagro," Vadim Moshkovich, during a search, according to case materials. This indicates an internal Russian legal investigation targeting a prominent businessman, potentially related to financial matters or other allegations.
US Stance on Negotiations: US expectations regarding a Trump-Putin meeting are noted. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary framing the alleged transfer of Ukrainian resources to US allies within the context of US involvement in negotiations. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Turkey is facilitating potential negotiations in Istanbul.
Speculation on Trump's Role: Speculation regarding a Trump-Putin meeting continues. A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported by Russian state media. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined.
Ukraine-UK Relations: Previously reported alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a 21-year-old Ukrainian citizen in connection with alleged arson, including at the British Prime Minister's residence. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans to transfer valuable resources to British allies as part of military assistance, potentially impacting perceptions of UK support for Ukraine.
NATO Development: NATO members are participating in military exercises near Russia. Marco Rubio has stated that NATO countries will agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next ten years.
EU Politics: Politico reports concerns in the EU about the potential for a bloc of leaders to oppose support for Kyiv. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th in Brussels.
Information Operations related to Resource Control: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны's information operation regarding alleged Ukrainian government plans to transfer resources to British and American allies is a significant political development as it attempts to shape narratives around Ukrainian sovereignty, Western influence, and the perceived inevitability of Russian territorial gains. This narrative is being disseminated to influence public opinion and potentially create divisions within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its allies.
Russian Economic Policy: TASS reports that Sergey Mironov is proposing increased taxes on luxury and high incomes. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites in Russia in the first quarter of 2025.
Labor Market: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites in Russia in the first quarter of 2025. A Russian official has proposed changes to the education and potential deportation of migrant children, which could impact the labor market.
Social Policy: TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status.
Russia-Czech Republic Relations: Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Czech citizens at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
Internal Crime/Corruption in Russia: TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers, highlighting potential issues with military procurement. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes. TASS reports that investigators from the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not find a foreign passport and an Israeli passport belonging to the founder of "Rusagro," Vadim Moshkovich, during a search, according to case materials. This indicates an internal Russian legal investigation targeting a prominent businessman, potentially related to financial matters or other allegations.
Russian Social Policy: TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status.
Russian Foreign Agent Legislation: Russia has again brought the former leader of the group "Tarakan!" Dmitry Spirin to administrative responsibility for not submitting information about a foreign agent. This highlights the ongoing enforcement of legislation targeting individuals deemed foreign agents.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Alleged involvement of Russian special services in a fire in Warsaw as accused by Poland (reported previously). Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast could be used to support narratives about foreign involvement against Russia. The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad. Reports from a pro-Russian source allege changes to the Russian coat of arms in Chechnya, removing religious symbols, which is presented as a political outcome. A criminal case against a figure linked to the former Kursk Oblast governor highlights internal issues related to corruption. Implement safeguards to prevent unauthorized use and ensure accountability in decision-making processes. Police of Khabarovsk Krai highlights the history and role of the convoy service within the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. ASTRA reports that a former deputy head of the Investigative Committee of the Frunzensky district of St. Petersburg is accused of attempting to smuggle weapons from "LPR" to Rostov Oblast. Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced the search for a resident of St. Petersburg who drew graffiti "Putin killed Navalny". Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Czech citizens at the Baikonur Cosmodrome for attempting to access a rocket. TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes. Russia has again brought the former leader of the group "Tarakan!" Dmitry Spirin to administrative responsibility for not submitting information about a foreign agent. This highlights the ongoing enforcement of legislation targeting individuals deemed foreign agents. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to present evidence of "atrocities" by the Ukrainian regime in Kursk Oblast, featuring a resident who alleges looting and killings by Ukrainian military and Polish mercenaries, and claims they felt "complete impunity." This video is presented as material for an "International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" and is a significant Russian information operation aiming to portray Ukrainian forces as committing war crimes and atrocities against Russian civilians, likely intended to fuel internal security narratives and justify Russian actions. TASS reports that investigators from the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not find a foreign passport and an Israeli passport belonging to the founder of "Rusagro," Vadim Moshkovich, during a search, according to case materials. This indicates an internal Russian legal investigation targeting a prominent businessman, potentially related to financial matters or other allegations.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat and claiming tactical successes. They continue to utilize KABs and drones extensively. Claims of eliminating Ukrainian equipment are made. The timeframe for the Russian Defense Plan has been extended. New small arms variants are being developed. Technical improvisation in mine warfare is highlighted. Colonelcassad's analysis of alleged Ukrainian defensive preparations and tactics provides intelligence on the capabilities and likely intentions of the opposing forces, which is relevant to assessing Russian military performance and challenges. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. This is a claim of successful tactical engagement and equipment destruction by Russian forces in an area of ongoing Russian offensive pressure. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier alleges issues within the Ukrainian military regarding equipment provision (soldiers having to buy their own) and poor command and control resulting in friendly fire. This is presented as "proof" of issues with Ukrainian mobilization and could be part of a broader Russian information operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and their supporters and portray Ukrainian recruitment efforts negatively. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that assault units used only small arms during the liberation of Mykhailivka. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. Russian forces are pushing near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Casualty Reports: Previously reported civilian and military casualties. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier describes experiencing friendly fire. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a resident of Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) alleging killings of elderly residents by Ukrainian military and Polish mercenaries during Ukrainian incursions. This is part of a Russian information operation and claim of civilian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian forces.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. Alleged Ukrainian mine usage is being reported. Colonelcassad's claims and analysis regarding Ukrainian defensive preparations and tactics, along as well as his reports on alleged unconventional mine usage and claimed destruction of Ukrainian transport, are likely aimed at influencing narratives about the conflict, highlighting claimed Russian military effectiveness, and potentially portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. The TASS report on EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv also serves this purpose. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources and linking them to potential territorial changes and the role of Western allies, aimed at influencing perceptions of Ukraine and the conflict. TASS reports that Sergey Mironov is proposing increased taxes on luxury and high incomes, framed as addressing societal needs. TASS reports the arrest in an embezzlement case related to "special operation" participants, which can be framed as addressing internal issues. TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays, framed as a social initiative. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrant workers, linking it to tightened policy and improved quality of foreign labor. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging issues with Ukrainian military equipment and friendly fire is presented as "proof" of problems with Ukrainian mobilization, serving as an information operation. Russian sources allege that the military commissar (военком) who previously assaulted a teacher in Kharkiv is still involved in recruiting activities, potentially in plain clothes, framed as an example of the Ukrainian government's methods for conscription. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status, which is relevant to information control. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. Colonelcassad is promoting a new RUTUBE channel with archive front-line videos, which is likely part of an information operation to share battlefield content. Boris Rozhin provides a pro-Russian analysis of the Russian negotiation delegation for Istanbul, likely aimed at shaping perceptions about the Russian approach to talks and their view of the Ukrainian government. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to present evidence of "atrocities" by the Ukrainian regime in Kursk Oblast, featuring a resident making serious allegations against Ukrainian forces and Polish mercenaries. This video is presented as material for an "International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" and is a significant Russian information operation aiming to portray Ukrainian forces as committing war crimes and atrocities against Russian civilians and to justify Russian actions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo message with a caption asking about the mood on a Friday morning, which is a form of morale building and engagement within a pro-Russian information channel.
Resource Mobilization: Efforts to mobilize resources for the military through non-governmental channels continue.
Mine Clearing: Mine clearing operations are ongoing. Colonelcassad's reports of alleged Ukrainian mine usage, including disguised mines and remote mining, highlight the challenges and importance of mine countermeasures.
Civilian Impact: Previously reported on the impact of the conflict on civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a resident of Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) alleging targeting of civilian vehicles (including one with a white flag), hitting a hospital, substation, and private homes, shelling of evacuation routes, and looting by Ukrainian forces and Polish mercenaries. This is part of a Russian information operation aiming to portray Ukrainian forces as causing significant harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Defense Planning: The Russian Defense Plan has been extended to 2027.
Social Notes: A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported by Russian state media. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes.
Information Operations on Ukrainian Internal Affairs: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary referencing internal Ukrainian discussions and concerns about alleged government actions related to resource transfer, likely aimed at highlighting perceived internal divisions or discontent within Ukraine. Allegations of continued aggressive recruitment tactics in Kharkiv have been reported by Russian sources, framed as an example of Ukrainian government methods. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging issues with Ukrainian military equipment and friendly fire is presented as "proof" of problems with Ukrainian mobilization, serving as an information operation.
Economic Policy: TASS reports that Sergey Mironov is proposing increased taxes on luxury and high incomes. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites in Russia in the first quarter of 2025.
Labor Market: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a 15-20% reduction in the number of migrants on construction sites in Russia in the first quarter of 2025. A Russian official has proposed changes to the education and potential deportation of migrant children, which could impact the labor market.
Social Policy: TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status.
Russia-Czech Republic Relations: Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Czech citizens at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
Internal Crime/Corruption in Russia: TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers, highlighting potential issues with military procurement. A suspect has been detained in Ufa, Russia, for allegedly robbing microloan offices under the instruction of scammers, highlighting internal crime and the impact of fraudulent schemes. TASS reports that investigators from the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not find a foreign passport and an Israeli passport belonging to the founder of "Rusagro," Vadim Moshkovich, during a search, according to case materials. This indicates an internal Russian legal investigation targeting a prominent businessman, potentially related to financial matters or other allegations.
Russian Social Policy: TASS reports that Vladislav Grib suggests alcohol be removed from store displays. A Russian official has proposed that the education of migrant children should be paid for, with the funds directed to teacher bonuses, and that migrant children who fail Russian language tests three times should be sent back to their home countries. While a domestic policy proposal, this reflects evolving Russian social and migration policies which could have implications for the labor force and social integration within Russia. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. TASS reports on the appeal by Dmitry Spirin, former leader of "Tarakan!", against his foreign agent status.
Russian Foreign Agent Legislation: Russia has again brought the former leader of the group "Tarakan!" Dmitry Spirin to administrative responsibility for not submitting information about a foreign agent. This highlights the ongoing enforcement of legislation targeting individuals deemed foreign agents.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International support for Ukraine continues through diplomatic engagement and military exercises. Limitations on certain military aid (Taurus missiles from Germany) are noted. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th. Financial Times reports that Ukrainian authorities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars purchasing weapons from unreliable suppliers. Marco Rubio has stated that NATO countries will agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next ten years.
Military Support (Russia): Efforts to provide military support through non-governmental channels continue. Development of new small arms variants is ongoing. Colonelcassad is promoting a new RUTUBE channel with archive front-line videos, which is likely intended to rally support and showcase Russian military actions. Boris Rozhin mentions a fund for the rehabilitation of SVO fighters in his post about the Istanbul delegation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo message with a caption asking about the mood on a Friday morning, which is a form of morale building and engagement within a pro-Russian information channel, indirectly supporting military efforts by engaging with potential donors and supporters.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Support through international organizations like FIFA is being sought.
Civilian Support (Russia): Humanitarian efforts involving Russian citizens in other conflicts are noted. A Russian official has proposed changes to the education of migrant children, which could impact families and access to services. A Russian State Duma deputy has proposed making May 1-9 public holidays in 2026. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a resident of Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) alleging looting by Ukrainian military and civilians from Sumy Oblast during Ukrainian incursions, which is presented as material for an "International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis." This is part of a Russian information operation that highlights civilian impact and frames it within a narrative of Ukrainian actions.
Information Operations on Western Support: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging that the Ukrainian government is transferring valuable agricultural and forest resources to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing this as potentially exploitative.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): TASS reports the arrest of one of the organizers of alleged embezzlement schemes targeting participants of the "special military operation" at Sheremetyevo airport. This indicates efforts to address issues affecting military personnel. A video from Colonelcassad featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier alleges issues with equipment provision for Ukrainian soldiers, presented within a Russian information operation. Boris Rozhin mentions a fund for the rehabilitation of SVO fighters in his post about the Istanbul delegation, indicating ongoing efforts to support wounded personnel.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts. Utilizing drones for various purposes. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks. Engaging in high-level negotiations. Participating in international military exercises as observers. Seeking continued international military and political support. Experiencing limitations in obtaining certain advanced weaponry. Colonelcassad's analysis alleges Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines behind Pokrovsk towards Dobropillia, utilizing concrete anti-tank obstacles, concertina wire, and earthworks. He also describes alleged Ukrainian tactics, including mining approaches and using drones for remote mining and attacking immobilized vehicles. This provides specific details on Ukrainian defensive tactics and engineering. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts and warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. RBC-Ukraine shares an air alarm map showing widespread drone activity across Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones across multiple oblasts, highlighting a new wave of activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones passed through the Zatoka area and are now flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports all five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi are now accounted for (minus), suggesting potential successful interception. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, including from southern Chernihiv Oblast towards eastern Kyiv and northern Poltava, and towards Kherson from occupied territories. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides further detailed and updated information on drone movements across numerous oblasts, including specific numbers and trajectories. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts, including western Poltava, central Sumy, southern Chernihiv, northeastern and southeastern Черкаси, northeastern Kirovohrad, eastern Mykolaiv, the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv, occupied Kherson towards Kherson city, and new groups entering Sumy from Kursk. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. A Russian strike UAV is reported moving towards Kyiv from the southeast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east in Vinnytsia Oblast. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Uman, moving from the northeast. A threat of Russian strike UAVs is reported for Vinnytsia, moving from the east. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - northern/northeastern; on the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course - northeastern; on the north of Kyivshchyna, course - northern; on the west and on the south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/northwestern; on the northwestern part of Kirovohradshchyna, course - northern; on the central part of Poltavshchyna, course - southwestern/western; on the east of Chernihivshchyna, course - southwestern; and on the east of Dnipropetrovshchyna, course - southwest. Ukrainian forces have had success near Toretsk. Air raid alert for Kyiv has been cleared, indicating successful air defense actions or a receding threat in the capital region. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian FPV drone struck a civilian vehicle in Kursk Oblast. This video is presented as "evidence" of Ukrainian "atrocities" and is part of a Russian information operation portraying Ukrainian tactics negatively.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations and developing counter-mine measures. Developing and introducing new small arms variants. Engaging in diplomatic efforts in Istanbul. Experiencing casualties in other conflicts. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and warnings of strikes from occupied Kherson. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Colonelcassad reports alleged Ukrainian mine usage involving drones and claims of Russian drone strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides an updated overview of the location and course of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava, and reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones across multiple oblasts, highlighting a new wave of activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport by an FPV drone from the "Antagonist" group, highlighting the continued tactical use of FPV drones by Russian forces. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, including from southern Chernihiv Oblast towards eastern Kyiv and northern Poltava, and towards Kherson from occupied territories. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёk" provides further detailed and updated information on drone movements across numerous oblasts, including specific numbers and trajectories. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts. A Russian strike UAV is reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast, moving westward. Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts have been reported. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts providing critical real-time intelligence for air defense and operational planning. A Russian strike UAV reported on the east of Kyiv Oblast moving westward signifies a direct strategic threat to the capital region. A Russian strike UAV reported moving towards Kyiv from the southeast indicates a direct and immediate strategic aerial threat to the capital. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv Oblasts with specific trajectories and locations. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that assault units used only small arms during the liberation of Mykhailivka. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Donetsk Oblast have been reported. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force details the movement of Russian strike UAVs on the northern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - northern/northeastern; on the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course - northeastern; on the north of Kyivshchyna, course - northern; on the west and on the south of Cherkasy Oblast, course - western/northwestern; on the northwestern part of Kirovohradshchyna, course - northern; on the central part of Poltavshchyna, course - southwestern/western; on the east of Chernihivshchyna, course - southwestern; and on the east of Dnipropetrovshchyna, course - southwest. Russian forces are pushing near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian strike UAVs are primarily observed in Poltava Oblast, moving westward/southwestward. A threat of aviation weapon use has been declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district), indicating potential Russian air activity.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. the US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO is developing advanced drone capabilities and member states are providing military aid to Ukraine. A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a 21-year-old Ukrainian citizen in connection with alleged arson, which is a significant development involving a third country and a Ukrainian citizen. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv, highlighting political dynamics within the EU. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans to transfer valuable agricultural and forest resources to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing this as potentially exploitative. РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Merz stated that a new package of sanctions against Russia is ready and may be adopted on May 20th. Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Czech citizens at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. Marco Rubio has stated that NATO countries will agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next ten years. Marco Rubio has stated that the date and location of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump are not yet determined. Boris Rozhin provides a pro-Russian analysis of the Russian negotiation delegation for Istanbul, highlighting the inclusion of military specialists and framing it in the context of Russia's assessment of the Ukrainian government. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a resident of Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) alleging killings of elderly residents by Polish mercenaries during Ukrainian incursions. This video is presented as "evidence" of "atrocities" and is part of a Russian information operation that includes claims of foreign involvement on the Ukrainian side.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The sustained and geographically expanding Russian drone offensive, now explicitly including warnings for Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Черкаси, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, as confirmed by the latest Ukrainian Air Force updates, underscores a strategic effort to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and create widespread pressure across multiple regions. The persistent westward and southwestward trajectories indicate a potential strategic focus on areas further from the front lines. The explicit threat of aviation weapon use in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast adds another layer to Russia's aerial strategy, suggesting potential targeted air strikes in this specific area. The clearing of the air raid alert in Kyiv is a positive tactical development but does not negate the overall strategic threat posed by Russian aerial capabilities.
The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by the ISW report on Russian pushes near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka, along with Ukrainian success near Toretsk, highlights the persistent strategic importance of achieving territorial gains in eastern Ukraine. The fighting in these areas directly impacts the overall strategic situation and the potential for shifts in the front lines.
The emergence of a new Russian information operation centered on alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast, as presented in the Colonelcassad video, represents a strategic effort to shape narratives about the conflict, portray Ukraine and its allies (including Polish mercenaries) as war criminals, and potentially justify Russian actions. This is a significant development in the information war and is likely intended to influence domestic and international opinion. The specific allegations of targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, looting, killings, and abductions are serious claims that, regardless of verification, contribute to a strategic narrative of Ukrainian aggression.
The ongoing diplomatic maneuvering surrounding potential Istanbul negotiations, including the German declaration of readiness for new sanctions linked to the talks and Boris Rozhin's pro-Russian analysis of the Russian delegation's composition and Russia's view of the Ukrainian government, underscores the complex strategic landscape where military actions and diplomatic efforts are intertwined. The inclusion of military specialists in the Russian delegation, as highlighted by Rozhin, suggests Russia's strategic approach to negotiations involves a pragmatic assessment of the military situation and a focus on potential military-related aspects of any agreement.
Internal Russian issues, such as the re-imposition of administrative responsibility for the former leader of "Tarakan!" under foreign agent legislation and the internal legal investigation targeting the founder of "Rusagro," while seemingly domestic, have strategic implications for information control, the business environment, and the broader political landscape within Russia, all of which can indirectly impact the war effort. The continued enforcement of foreign agent legislation is a strategic effort to control information and suppress dissent.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report