Sitrep 2025-05-15 23:41:07

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 15, 2025, 23:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, a pervasive Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and complex diplomatic maneuverings. Russian drone activity continues to be reported across a wide swathe of Ukraine, with updated information detailing their movement across Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and now explicitly targeting Odesa and Черкаси Oblasts, with westward or southwestward trajectories being dominant. Specific drone threat warnings have been issued for Chernihiv and Poltava cities. The Black Sea off the coast of occupied Kherson remains a launch point for some drone activity, with these platforms moving westward/northwestward. Diplomatic efforts regarding potential Istanbul negotiations are ongoing and complex, marked by conflicting reports and accusations. Russia continues to assert tactical gains and territorial liberation, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and reports successful defensive actions and equipment destruction. Ukraine reports actively defending, inflicting losses, and effectively employing drone warfare. Internal Russian issues, such as military command changes and legal proceedings, persist. Claims of alleged unconventional Ukrainian mine tactics near Kremennaya have emerged. A notable incident with potential international implications involves the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson. International military exercises and aid provisions continue to be reported. A pro-Russian source has shared documents and commentary alleging that the Ukrainian government is prioritizing the conservation and potential transfer of agricultural and forest resources in northern and southern oblasts to British and American allies, framing this as preparation for the loss of territory and linking it to the timing of potential negotiations. This source also includes commentary questioning the Ukrainian government's actions and referencing internal Ukrainian discussions on the matter.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Expanded Scope of Russian Drone Activity and Targeted Regions: Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force and "Николаевский Ванёк" confirms the continuation of widespread Russian drone activity and provides more specific details on their movement and numbers across multiple oblasts. Critically, the explicit mention of drones from the Black Sea heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district in Odesa Oblast, and a threat warning for Cherkasy Oblast from the east, signifies an expansion of the targeted areas for this current aerial offensive. This indicates a potential strategic shift or increased capacity to strike a wider range of locations further west and south.
Targeting of Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea: The specific report of drones from occupied Kherson in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast confirms this region as a current area of operational focus for Russian aerial attacks. The reporting of some drones flying through the Zatoka area towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi provides a more granular understanding of the likely targets within Odesa Oblast. While "Николаевский Ванёк" reports that all drones previously heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi have been accounted for (minus), this does not negate the fact that the region is currently being targeted.
Threat to Cherkasy Oblast: The warning from the Ukrainian Air Force regarding the threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east in Cherkasy Oblast highlights a new area of concern within the broader drone offensive, suggesting that Russia is extending its reach or opening a new axis of attack for these systems.
Updated Drone Movement Details and Numbers: "Николаевский Ванёк" provides specific numbers and updated trajectories for drone groups across various oblasts (Black Sea/Odesa, Самара area, Kremenchuk area, Krasnohrad area, Poltava, Pryluky, Nizhyn, Chernihiv). This level of detail is crucial for real-time situational awareness and operational planning, as it indicates the scale and intended routes of the current aerial attack. The Ukrainian Air Force also provides updated, slightly different details on drone locations and courses across several oblasts.
Russian Information Operation Alleging Ukrainian Resource Transfer to Allies: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, a pro-Russian source, has introduced a significant piece of information operation. By sharing alleged Ukrainian government documents and commentary, they are pushing a narrative that Ukraine is preparing to lose northern and southern territories by conserving and potentially transferring valuable agricultural and forest resources in these areas to British and American allies, framing this as being tied to military assistance and timed around the proposed negotiations. This narrative is likely intended to sow distrust between the Ukrainian government and its population, portray Western allies as exploiting Ukraine, and suggest the inevitability of Russian territorial gains. The inclusion of an image showing deforestation is likely used to visually support claims about the negative impact of Ukrainian government actions or the conflict itself on resources. The analysis of a Telegram chat mentioning concerns about land use and dismissing the information as "vatnik vbros" provides insight into how this narrative is being perceived and countered within Ukraine.
Possible Successful Interception of Drones Towards Odesa: "Николаевский Ванёк"'s report that all five drones previously heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi are now "minus" suggests potential successful interception or neutralization of these specific threats. This is a positive development for Ukraine's air defense in that region.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Siversk, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka, Kotlyarivka, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims tactical gains and liberation. Ukraine reports actively defending. Russian forces continue aerial strikes with KABs. Russian VDV are reportedly gaining air superiority over Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad shares photos and analysis alleging Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines behind Pokrovsk towards Dobropillia, indicating anticipated pressure on Pokrovsk and Ukrainian defensive preparations in this area. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast moving westward.
Kharkiv Oblast (including Vovchansk, Lyptsi): Affected by Russian aerial and ground assaults. Russian forces are reportedly conducting offensive actions, with claims of seizing fortified areas near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the central and eastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast moving westward/southwestward. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by FPV drones. This is a claim of successful tactical engagement and equipment destruction by Russian forces in an area of ongoing Russian offensive pressure. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central and southern parts of Kharkiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports four drones moving on/through Krasnohrad.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border): Ongoing conflict with reported Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counterattacks. Russian strike UAVs are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, with a westward/southwestward course.
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Russian strike UAVs are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, with a westward/southwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast, with a southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports on updated drone movement in the Sumy region.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by Russian drone attacks. Russian strike UAVs are being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course, which could potentially target Mykolaiv Oblast.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Affected by potential drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs from the east in Kirovohrad Oblast. This signifies potential or ongoing drone activity in this central Ukrainian region.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued intense fighting with Russian assaults and Ukrainian defenses.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Pavlohrad): Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed ground advances by Russian forces. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the east and warns of enemy strike UAVs in Pavlohrad. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs on the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a southwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the northern and southern parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a southward/northward-westward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports six drones north of Самара, moving westward.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Affected by potential drone activity.
Tripoli (Libya): Experiencing armed clashes and fighting.
Lithuania: International military exercises are taking place.
Hungarian-Ukrainian Border: Unconfirmed reports suggest potential for increased tension.
Chechnya (Russia): Reports on internal political developments and significant construction projects.
Odesa Oblast (including Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district): Affected by potential drone activity. Russian strike UAVs are targeting Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course, which could potentially target Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones passed through the Zatoka area and are now flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports all five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi have been accounted for (minus), suggesting potential successful interception.
Moscow (Russia): Affected by domestic security incidents and legal proceedings.
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Affected by law enforcement activity.
Rostov Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV over Rostov Oblast overnight.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV over Belgorod Oblast overnight.
Poltava Oblast (including Poltava City): Affected by potential drone activity. Russian strike UAVs are a threat in Poltava Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs on the southeastern part of Poltava Oblast, with a westward/southwestward/northwestward course, and warns of UAVs moving towards Poltava city from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts, with a northwestward course, and in the central part of Poltava Oblast, with a westward/northward-westward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports seven drones on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading southeast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports two drones north of Poltava, heading westward. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports seven drones north of Kremenchuk.
Chernihiv Oblast (including Chernihiv City): Affected by Russian aerial activity. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs on the east of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course, and warns of UAVs moving towards Chernihiv city from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian strike UAVs in the central part of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward course. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 14 drones moving on/through Pryluky and six drones moving on/through Nizhyn. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports one drone south of Chernihiv.
Kherson Oblast (including occupied territories): Affected by Russian shelling, Ukrainian drone activity, and reported Russian military training. Russian strike UAVs are being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson Oblast. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea from occupied Kherson.
Occupied Territories: Affected by Ukrainian drone activity and Russian mine clearing operations, and claimed Russian advances. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources in occupied territories.
London (UK): Affected by alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a 21-year-old Ukrainian citizen in connection with alleged arson, including at the British Prime Minister's residence.
Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): Affected by alleged Ukrainian drone attacks. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR.
Western Ukraine: Affected by alleged Russian strikes.
Gaza: Affected by bombing, resulting in the death of Russian citizens.
Saransk (Russia): Previously reported as a target of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Estonia: Hosting military exercises with NATO involvement.
Dobropillia (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad's analysis alleges Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines towards Dobropillia from Pokrovsk.
Black Sea: Affected by Russian drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson towards Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka.
Cherkasy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs from the east. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports updated drone movement potentially impacting Cherkasy Oblast.
Karolino-Buhaz / Zatoka (Odesa Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka.
Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district (Odesa Oblast): The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi after passing through Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports all five drones heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi have been accounted for (minus).
Krasnohrad (Kharkiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports four drones moving on/through Krasnohrad.
Samara area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports six drones north of Samara, moving westward.
Kremenchuk area (Poltava Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports seven drones north of Kremenchuk.
Pryluky area (Chernihiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 14 drones moving on/through Pryluky.
Nizhyn area (Chernihiv Oblast): "Николаевский Ванёк" reports six drones moving on/through Nizhyn.
Telgram Chat (potentially from Zalyutino, Kharkiv): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes an analysis of a Telegram chat discussing Ukrainian government actions and resource management.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains highly significant, with widespread Russian and Ukrainian drone activity. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and warnings of strikes from occupied Kherson. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Colonelcassad reports alleged Ukrainian mine usage involving drones and claims of Russian drone strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force provides an updated overview of the location and course of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts and warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson, with a westward/northwestward course. RBC-Ukraine shares an air alarm map showing widespread drone activity across Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёк" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones across multiple oblasts, highlighting a new wave of activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones flying towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi after passing through Zatoka, and subsequently reports these drones are "minus," suggesting potential successful interception.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces, particularly on Donetsk Oblast.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs.
Missile Activity: Russian Missile Troops are conducting strikes.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported, but the presence of Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson is noted. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson towards Odesa Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats. Russian air defense systems are claiming interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports that five drones previously heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi are now "minus," suggesting potential successful interception by Ukrainian air defense.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire.
Mine Warfare: Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR and describes Ukrainian tactics including mining approaches to defensive lines and remote mining with "Baba Yaga" drones. This highlights the ongoing and evolving use of mine warfare.
Defensive Obstacles: Colonelcassad shares photos and analysis of alleged Ukrainian construction of reserve defensive lines utilizing concrete anti-tank obstacles ("dragon's teeth," "hedgehogs") and concertina wire barriers behind Pokrovsk. This provides visual evidence and analysis of defensive engineering efforts.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions and preparations for negotiations in Istanbul continue. Russia reiterates its claim of waiting for talks and accuses Ukraine of delaying, attributing US influence in bringing Ukraine to the table. Speculation regarding a potential Trump-Putin meeting continues. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates continued US involvement at a potentially higher level than previously reported. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary linking alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer to the timing of potential negotiations, framing it within a narrative of the US rushing to secure assets before territorial changes, likely intended to influence perceptions of the diplomatic process.
International Support for Ukraine: International military exercises are taking place. The US and European partners are discussing settlement prospects. Limitations on certain military aid (Taurus missiles from Germany) are noted. FIFA is providing support. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson, which could impact international relations and support. Politico reports concerns in the EU about the potential for a bloc of leaders to oppose support for Kyiv, and TASS reports on this Politico article. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares information operation alleging the Ukrainian government plans to transfer valuable resources in northern and southern oblasts to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing it negatively.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul. Russia is engaged in information operations regarding the negotiations. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary linking alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer to the timing of potential negotiations.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Discussions around peace and diplomacy continue at high levels. Internal responses to Russian statements are noted. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary referencing alleged Ukrainian government actions regarding resource transfer and their reception within Ukraine, potentially highlighting internal discussions or dissent.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: High-level military command changes have occurred. Information operations are ongoing. Construction projects are being highlighted. Internal legal and security issues are present. A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported. Colonelcassad is actively disseminating information and analysis regarding the conflict and Ukrainian actions, which is part of Russian information operations. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv, which also contributes to information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources and linking them to potential territorial changes and the role of Western allies, aimed at influencing perceptions of Ukraine and the conflict.
US Stance on Negotiations: US expectations regarding a Trump-Putin meeting are noted. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary framing the alleged transfer of Ukrainian resources to US allies within the context of US involvement in negotiations.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Turkey is facilitating potential negotiations in Istanbul.
Speculation on Trump's Role: Speculation regarding a Trump-Putin meeting continues. A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported by Russian state media.
Ukraine-UK Relations: Previously reported alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson, including at the British Prime Minister's residence. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans to transfer valuable resources to British allies as part of military assistance, potentially impacting perceptions of UK support for Ukraine.
NATO Development: NATO members are participating in military exercises near Russia.
EU Politics: Politico reports concerns in the EU about the potential for a bloc of leaders to oppose support for Kyiv. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv.
Information Operations related to Resource Control: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны's information operation regarding alleged Ukrainian government plans to transfer resources to British and American allies is a significant political development as it attempts to shape narratives around Ukrainian sovereignty, Western influence, and the perceived inevitability of Russian territorial gains. This narrative is being disseminated to influence public opinion and potentially create divisions within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its allies.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

High-Level Military Personnel Changes: A change in the Commander of the Central Military District has occurred.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat and claiming tactical successes. They continue to utilize KABs and drones extensively. Claims of eliminating Ukrainian equipment are made. The timeframe for the Russian Defense Plan has been extended. New small arms variants are being developed. Technical improvisation in mine warfare is highlighted. Colonelcassad's analysis of alleged Ukrainian defensive preparations and tactics provides intelligence on the capabilities and likely intentions of the opposing forces, which is relevant to assessing Russian military performance and challenges. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. This is a claim of successful tactical engagement and equipment destruction by Russian forces.
Casualty Reports: Previously reported civilian and military casualties.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. Alleged Ukrainian mine usage is being reported. Colonelcassad's claims and analysis regarding Ukrainian defensive preparations and tactics, as well as his reports on alleged Ukrainian mine usage and claimed destruction of Ukrainian transport, are part of ongoing information operations. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv, which also contributes to information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources and linking them to potential territorial changes and the role of Western allies, which is a significant attempt to shape perceptions.
Resource Mobilization: Efforts to mobilize resources for the military through non-governmental channels continue.
Mine Clearing: Mine clearing operations are ongoing. Colonelcassad's reports of alleged Ukrainian mine usage, including disguised mines and remote mining, highlight the challenges and importance of mine countermeasures.
Civilian Impact: Previously reported on the impact of the conflict on civilians.
Defense Planning: The Russian Defense Plan has been extended to 2027.
Social Notes: A social note regarding Donald Trump's family has been reported by Russian state media.
Information Operations on Ukrainian Internal Affairs: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны includes commentary referencing internal Ukrainian discussions and concerns about alleged government actions related to resource transfer, likely aimed at highlighting perceived internal divisions or discontent within Ukraine.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International support for Ukraine continues through diplomatic engagement and military exercises. Limitations on certain military aid exist.
Military Support (Russia): Efforts to provide military support through non-governmental channels continue. Development of new small arms variants is ongoing.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Support through international organizations like FIFA is being sought.
Civilian Support (Russia): Humanitarian efforts involving Russian citizens in other conflicts are noted.
Information Operations on Western Support: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging that the Ukrainian government is transferring valuable agricultural and forest resources to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing this as potentially exploitative.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts. Utilizing drones for various purposes. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks. Engaging in high-level negotiations. Participating in international military exercises as observers. Seeking continued international military and political support. Experiencing limitations in obtaining certain advanced weaponry. Colonelcassad's analysis alleges Ukrainian forces are constructing reserve defensive lines behind Pokrovsk towards Dobropillia, utilizing concrete anti-tank obstacles, concertina wire, and earthworks. He also describes alleged Ukrainian tactics, including mining approaches and using drones for remote mining and attacking immobilized vehicles. This provides specific details on Ukrainian defensive tactics and engineering. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts and warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs. "Николаевский Ванёк" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones, highlighting a new wave of Russian aerial tactics impacting a wider area. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, indicating a tactical focus on this region. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast, suggesting an expansion of Russian tactical reach. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, providing granular tactical movement details. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports these drones are now "minus," suggesting potential successful counter-UAV tactics by Ukraine.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations and developing counter-mine measures. Developing and introducing new small arms variants. Engaging in diplomatic efforts in Istanbul. Experiencing casualties in other conflicts. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and warnings of strikes from occupied Kherson. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR and describes alleged Ukrainian tactics. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east. The Ukrainian Air Force provides an updated overview of the location and course of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, warns of specific threats to Chernihiv and Poltava, and reports Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea from occupied Kherson. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport in the Kharkiv direction by an FPV drone, attributing it to the "Antagonist" group. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёк" provides detailed, updated information on the number and movement of Russian drones, highlighting a new wave of Russian aerial tactics impacting a wider area. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian strike UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, indicating a tactical focus on this region. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a threat warning for enemy strike UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast, suggesting an expansion of Russian tactical reach. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports five drones from the Black Sea towards Karolino-Buhaz/Zatoka and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, providing granular tactical movement details. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian transport by an FPV drone from the "Antagonist" group, highlighting the continued tactical use of FPV drones by Russian forces.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging in diplomatic efforts. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are participating in military exercises and providing aid. A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. TASS, citing Marco Rubio, reports that a US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. This indicates the US is actively involved in the diplomatic process. RBC-Ukraine reports the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson, which is a significant development involving a third country and a Ukrainian citizen. TASS reports on the Politico article concerning EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv, highlighting political dynamics within the EU. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an information operation alleging that the Ukrainian government is transferring valuable agricultural and forest resources to British and American allies as part of military assistance, framing this as potentially exploitative.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The sustained and geographically expanding Russian drone offensive, now explicitly including warnings for Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Черкаси Oblasts with westward or southwestward trajectories, indicates a strategic effort to target a wide range of objectives deep within Ukraine or across multiple operational directions. This necessitates robust and coordinated air defense and electronic warfare capabilities across the country. The widespread nature of the air alarm map reinforces the scale of this strategic aerial attack. The updated information on the location and course of Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts, including specific warnings for Chernihiv and Poltava, further underscores the breadth and targeted nature of this strategic aerial offensive. The report of Russian strike UAVs in the Black Sea originating from occupied Kherson indicates a strategic launch point for some of this activity, potentially targeting southern Ukraine. The explicit targeting of Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea and the threat to Cherkasy Oblast represent a further expansion of Russia's strategic aerial reach and priorities.
Colonelcassad's detailed claims and accompanying photos regarding alleged Ukrainian construction of reserve defensive lines behind Pokrovsk and their tactical adaptations, including mine warfare and specific drone usage, offer a significant strategic insight into Ukrainian anticipation of Russian advances and their preparations for a potentially protracted defense in the Donbas. This suggests a strategic understanding on the Ukrainian side of the potential pressure on Pokrovsk and a proactive effort to establish layered defenses.
The inclusion of a US representative at the Istanbul negotiations, as reported by TASS citing Marco Rubio, is a significant diplomatic development. This suggests a potentially higher level of direct US engagement in the peace process than previously indicated (where the US delegation was reported to be meeting Ukraine separately), which could have strategic implications for the direction and potential outcomes of the talks.
The arrest of a Ukrainian citizen in the UK for alleged arson, particularly targeting the British Prime Minister's properties, is a notable strategic development with potential implications for Ukraine-UK relations and potentially broader international perceptions and support for Ukraine. The incident could be exploited by Russia in information operations.
The alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya, as reported by Colonelcassad, if verified, is a significant tactical innovation with potential strategic implications for force protection and counter-mine warfare. It also presents a challenge for humanitarian mine action efforts. Colonelcassad's description of Ukrainian remote mining tactics with "Baba Yaga" drones and FPV drone attacks on immobilized vehicles further highlights the evolving nature of tactical engagement and the importance of countering these methods.
Russian information operations remain a key strategic element. Colonelcassad's dissemination of claims and analysis regarding Ukrainian defensive preparations and tactics, along with his reports on alleged unconventional mine usage and claimed destruction of Ukrainian transport, are likely aimed at influencing narratives about the conflict, highlighting claimed Russian military effectiveness, and potentially portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. The TASS report on EU concerns about leaders opposing support for Kyiv also serves this purpose. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны's information operation alleging Ukrainian government plans related to resources and linking them to potential territorial changes and the role of Western allies is a significant strategic effort to shape narratives about Ukrainian sovereignty, Western influence, and the perceived inevitability of Russian territorial gains. This narrative is likely intended to sow distrust and influence international perceptions.
The reported concerns within the EU about a potential bloc of leaders opposing support for Kyiv, as highlighted by TASS reporting on a Politico article, indicates potential internal political dynamics within the EU that could have strategic implications for the level and consistency of international support for Ukraine.
Colonelcassad's claim and video of destroying Ukrainian transport vehicles in the Kharkiv direction represent a claimed Russian tactical success in an area of ongoing offensive operations. While a tactical event, these claimed successes are strategically significant in the context of Russia's efforts to gain ground and degrade Ukrainian logistical capabilities in this region.
The information operation by Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны alleging Ukrainian government plans to conserve and potentially transfer valuable agricultural and forest resources in northern and southern oblasts to British and American allies as part of military assistance has significant strategic implications. Regardless of the veracity of the claims, this narrative, if widely disseminated and believed, could:
- Undermine public trust in the Ukrainian government: By portraying the government as preparing to cede territory and transfer valuable resources, it could erode support for the war effort and create internal divisions.
- Strain relations between Ukraine and its Western allies: By suggesting Western allies are seeking to exploit Ukraine's resources, it could create friction and potentially impact the level of international support.
- Support the Russian narrative of the conflict: It reinforces the idea that Russia is liberating territories and that Ukraine is being controlled or exploited by the West.
- Influence perceptions around negotiations: By linking the alleged resource transfer to the timing of negotiations, it suggests that the US is rushing to secure assets before a potential settlement, portraying the diplomatic process in a negative light. The inclusion of internal Ukrainian commentary on the alleged plans provides insight into how this narrative is being perceived within Ukraine and the challenges of countering it.
"Николаевский Ванёк"'s detailed reporting on drone movements provides invaluable tactical and operational intelligence, allowing for a better understanding of the scale, direction, and potential targets of Russian aerial attacks. This information is critical for strategic planning related to air defense deployment and resource allocation. The report of potential successful interceptions ("minus") also provides valuable data on the effectiveness of current air defense measures.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report