Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 15, 2025, 22:10 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment is characterized by ongoing, intense ground combat, coupled with persistent and geographically expanding Russian aerial activity involving guided aerial bombs (KABs) and a high volume of strike drones. Diplomatic efforts in Istanbul continue to be a focal point, marked by conflicting reports and accusations of manipulation. Russia claims tactical gains and territorial liberation in Donetsk Oblast and reports successful defensive actions and equipment destruction on various fronts. Ukraine reports actively defending, inflicting losses, and utilizing drone warfare. Internal Russian issues, including changes in military command, legal proceedings, and efforts to support troops, remain relevant. A notable incident involves a Ukrainian citizen charged in the UK for alleged arson. International military exercises and aid provisions continue to be reported.
New significant updates from the latest messages (past 30 minutes):
Further Russian Drone Activity Across Multiple Oblasts: The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs. Drones are reported in the central and eastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast, with a westward/southwestward trajectory. UAVs are also noted in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving westward, and are entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward. This indicates a broad and coordinated Russian drone offensive targeting multiple regions in eastern and northern Ukraine with a consistent westward trajectory.
Threat of Russian Strike UAVs from Occupied Kherson: The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. This highlights the continued use of occupied territories as launchpads for aerial attacks and indicates a potential threat to southern Ukraine.
Russian Claims of Negotiation Start Time and US Influence:Colonelcassad reiterates the claim that the Russian delegation is waiting for negotiations with Ukraine to start at 10 am today in Istanbul (May 15th, Moscow time, which has already passed). He suggests that Ukraine's delay is "clownery" and that the US has compelled them to attend. He anticipates continued Ukrainian attempts to disrupt the talks. This reinforces the Russian narrative of being ready to negotiate while portraying Ukraine as unwilling or difficult and attributes significant influence to the US in facilitating the talks.
Russian Claim of Ukrainian Mine Use Disguised as Mushrooms:Colonelcassad, citing the head of the administration of the Kremensky municipal district, reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are using mines disguised as mushrooms near Kremennaya in the LPR. He includes a photo of a mine that resembles a mushroom. This is a significant claim regarding alleged Ukrainian tactics and the use of unconventional disguised mines, which could pose a threat to both military and civilian personnel.
Russian Claim of Downing Two Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense systems destroyed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over the territories of Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight. This indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian border regions and successful Russian air defense interception of these threats.
Threat of Russian Strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast. This indicates a potential new area being targeted by Russian drone activity with a westward or southwestward trajectory, following the pattern observed in other oblasts.
Internal Russian Social Note:TASS reports the birth of Donald Trump's eleventh grandchild, announced by his younger daughter Tiffany. While not militarily relevant, this is an internal social note regarding a prominent international figure, reported by a Russian state media outlet.
Changes to the Situation from New Messages:
Expansion of Russian Drone Activity: The new reports from the Ukrainian Air Force confirm the continued and geographically broader scope of Russian strike UAV operations. Drones are now explicitly reported as entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, as well as continuing westward movements across Kharkiv and northern Donetsk Oblasts. The warning for Poltava Oblast indicates a potential new target area further west.
Confirmed Threat of Russian Drone Launches from Occupied Kherson: The Ukrainian Air Force warning specifically names occupied Kherson Oblast as a launch location for strike UAVs targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts, confirming this vector of attack.
Reinforced Russian Narrative on Negotiations: Colonelcassad's message reiterates the Russian claim about the negotiation start time and accuses Ukraine of delaying, reinforcing the Russian information operation narrative about their readiness for talks and Ukrainian obstruction. Attributing the necessity of talks to the US also highlights the perceived US influence in the process from a Russian perspective.
New Information on Alleged Ukrainian Mine Warfare Tactics: The report and accompanying photo regarding alleged Ukrainian mines disguised as mushrooms near Kremennaya introduce a specific claim about potential new Ukrainian tactics for placing disguised mines. This information, if verified, is relevant for force protection and mine countermeasures.
Confirmed Ukrainian Drone Activity Targeting Russian Border Regions: The Russian Ministry of Defense claim of downing two Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts confirms ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks targeting these specific Russian border regions and the active engagement of Russian air defenses in these areas.
Identification of Potential New Target Area for Russian Drones: The threat warning for Poltava Oblast indicates that this region is now potentially within the operational area of Russian strike UAVs, suggesting an expansion of targeted areas westward.
Inclusion of Internal Russian Social Information: The TASS report on the birth of Donald Trump's grandchild, while not directly military, indicates the scope of information being reported by Russian state media.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. MoD Russia reports the liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka (Donetsk People's Republic). Colonelcassad shares maps claiming zones of control and advancement of Russian forces on the Konstantinovka and Southern Donetsk directions as of May 15, 2025. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast. The report of Russian VDV gaining air superiority over Chasiv Yar indicates continued intense fighting and air defense efforts in that specific area. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the continuation of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. This indicates sustained Russian aerial strikes targeting this region. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast moving westward.
Kharkiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and ground assaults. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report that enemy kamikaze drones continue to move westward through Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity targeting or transiting this region with a westward trajectory. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian strike UAVs in the central and eastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast moving westward/southwestward.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border): Ongoing conflict with reported Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counterattacks. Colonelcassad shares disturbing images and commentary related to alleged Ukrainian casualties near MA PP "Sudzha," suggesting recent fighting in this border region. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward.
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving westward/southwestward.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by Russian drone attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Mykolaiv Oblast.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Affected by potential drone activity.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued intense fighting with Russian assaults and Ukrainian defenses. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the center of Tokmak. ТАСС reports that a residential building was damaged due to shelling in Tokmak.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed ground advances by Russian forces.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Affected by potential drone activity.
Tripoli (Libya): Experiencing armed clashes and fighting.
Lithuania: International military exercises are taking place.
Hungarian-Ukrainian Border: Unconfirmed reports suggest potential for increased tension.
Chechnya (Russia): Reports on internal political developments and significant construction projects.
Odesa Oblast: Affected by potential drone activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs targeting Odesa Oblast.
Moscow (Russia): Affected by domestic security incidents and legal proceedings.
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Affected by law enforcement activity.
Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): ISW reports activity by both sides.
Verkhnokamyanske (Donetsk Oblast): Reports of Russian tactical gains.
Hryhorivka (Donetsk Oblast): Reports of ongoing Russian offensive actions.
Minsk (Belarus): Affected by military commemoration events.
Crimea (Sevastopol): Related to cultural and political notes.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity.
Bryansk Oblast (Suzemka, Strachovo): Affected by continued shelling and the use of remote mines.
Kherson Oblast: Affected by Russian shelling, Ukrainian drone activity, and reported Russian military training. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson Oblast.
Occupied Territories: Affected by Ukrainian drone activity and Russian mine clearing operations, and claimed Russian advances. MoD Russia reports the liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast.Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR.
London (UK): Affected by alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister.
Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): Affected by alleged Ukrainian drone attacks. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR.
Western Ukraine: Affected by alleged Russian strikes.
Gaza: Affected by bombing, resulting in the death of Russian citizens.
Saransk (Russia): Previously reported as a target of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Estonia: Hosting military exercises with NATO involvement.
Rostov Oblast (Russia):Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV over Rostov Oblast overnight.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia):Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV over Belgorod Oblast overnight.
Poltava Oblast:Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains highly significant, with widespread Russian and Ukrainian drone activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Ukrainian forces using "Baba Yaga" heavy bomber drones over Chasiv Yar and Russian VDV destroying them. Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian system for detecting enemy artillery positions and directing drones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored fighting vehicle near Malinovka using an FPV drone. This demonstrates the continued and evolving use of drones by both sides for attack and reconnaissance. Николаевский Ванёк provides updated, detailed information on the movement and numbers of Russian drones across multiple oblasts. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] provides updated reports on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Chernihiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report that enemy kamikaze drones continue to move westward through Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity targeting or transiting this region. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB on Sloviansk. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial strikes. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the continuation of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. This indicates sustained Russian aerial strikes targeting this region.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs. MoD Russia reports that Operational-Tactical Aviation of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that bomber aviation of the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army of the "Vostok" group of forces struck positions. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the continuation of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast.
Missile Activity: MoD Russia reports that Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported in the latest messages. «Инженеры ЧФ» shares a video demonstrating a homemade mine trap, highlighting ongoing technical aspects of naval and coastal warfare.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian VDV are destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones over Chasiv Yar, implying Russian air defense or counter-drone capabilities in this area. Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense systems downed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire. MoD Russia reports that Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes and showcases footage of Msta-S self-propelled howitzer crews and Grad MLRS crews. Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian system for detecting enemy artillery positions and directing drones, highlighting artillery as a key element in coordinated attacks.
Mine Warfare:Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya in the LPR.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions and preparations for negotiations in Istanbul continue, though the timing and format are uncertain. ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Medinsky, report that the Russian delegation will wait for the Ukrainian delegation from 10 am tomorrow in Istanbul for direct bilateral negotiations without preliminary conditions. ТАСС, citing Medinsky, reports that the Russian delegation had a "productive meeting" with the Turkish Foreign Minister. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports that the US delegation will not meet with the Russian delegation but will meet the Ukrainian side separately. Старше Эдды expresses skepticism that the Ukrainian delegation will arrive. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a statement from US Senator Marco Rubio (note: Rubio is a Senator, not Secretary of State) expressing low expectations for tomorrow's talks and stating that a breakthrough is only possible through personal interaction between Trump and Putin. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's conversation with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and Andriy Shevchenko, discussing peace and diplomacy and stressing the need for genuine steps towards ending the war from Moscow. Colonelcassad, citing the US State Department, reports that a personal meeting between Trump and Putin will happen "very soon." This adds to the speculation about Trump's potential involvement in peace efforts and is a significant political development regarding potential high-level negotiations. Colonelcassad reiterates the claim of the Russian delegation waiting for negotiations to start at 10 am today in Istanbul, accusing Ukraine of "clownery" and suggesting US influence in bringing Ukraine to the table.
International Support for Ukraine: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports that the US delegation plans to meet with the Ukrainian side, including Foreign Minister Sibiga, separately in Istanbul, indicating ongoing international support. ТАСС reports that Merz stated that there are currently no plans to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports on Estonian defense force exercises "Hedgehog-2025" with significant NATO participation and observers from Ukraine, highlighting ongoing international military cooperation. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's conversation with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and Andriy Shevchenko, where Zelenskyy thanked FIFA for its support.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul, though the timing and format are uncertain. ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Medinsky, report that the Russian delegation will wait for the Ukrainian delegation from 10 am tomorrow in Istanbul for direct bilateral negotiations without preliminary conditions. ТАСС, citing Medinsky, reports that the Russian delegation had a "productive meeting" with the Turkish Foreign Minister. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports that the US delegation will not meet with the Russian delegation but will meet the Ukrainian side separately. НгП раZVедка expresses a strong opinion that the Ukrainian delegation is sabotaging the negotiation process. Старше Эдды expresses skepticism that the Ukrainian delegation will arrive. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy stressing the need for genuine steps towards ending the war from Moscow. Colonelcassad reiterates the claim of the Russian delegation waiting for negotiations to start at 10 am today in Istanbul, accusing Ukraine of "clownery."
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's conversation with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and Andriy Shevchenko, discussing peace and diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo of a Telegram message from Dmitry Medvedev with critical commentary, providing insight into Ukrainian political commentary and response to Russian official statements.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report the appointment of General-Colonel Valeriy Solodchuk as the Commander of the Central Military District. НгП раZVедка expresses strong opinions on the Ukrainian negotiation stance and the need for increased pressure on Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 provides an update on significant construction projects in Grozny. Alex Parker Returns promotes a bot that allegedly finds individuals' sensitive photos online. Colonelcassad criticizes a former Armenian Ministry of Defense spokesperson's view on Stalingrad. ТАСС reports that five volunteers from Dagestan were killed in a bombing in Gaza. Colonelcassad presents information on the new shortened AK-12 variants, highlighting ongoing Russian military-industrial complex development. «Инженеры ЧФ» shares a video demonstrating a homemade mine trap, highlighting ongoing technical improvisation in mine warfare. Alex PESVolshebnik comments on the potential cost of a "small missile." ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs has identified a new cyber scam scheme using fake emails from Google. This is an internal Russian information security development. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of a Russian Presidential Decree extending the Russian Defense Plan to 2027. Colonelcassad reiterates the claim about the negotiation start time and accuses Ukraine of "clownery."TASS reports the birth of Donald Trump's eleventh grandchild.
US Stance on Negotiations: Alex Parker Returns, citing the US administration, states that the US expects a personal meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports that the US delegation will not meet with the Russian delegation due to the perceived "lower level" but will meet with the Ukrainian side separately. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a statement from US Senator Marco Rubio (misidentified as Secretary of State) expressing low expectations for tomorrow's talks and stating a breakthrough requires personal interaction between Trump and Putin. Colonelcassad, citing the US State Department, reports that a personal meeting between Trump and Putin will happen "very soon." This reinforces the US perspective on potential high-level talks. Colonelcassad suggests the US has compelled Ukraine to attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: ТАСС, citing Medinsky, reports that the Russian delegation had a "productive meeting" with the Turkish Foreign Minister.
Speculation on Trump's Role: Alex Parker Returns, citing the US administration, states that the US expects a personal meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon." Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a statement from US Senator Marco Rubio (misidentified as Secretary of State) expressing low expectations for tomorrow's talks and stating a breakthrough requires personal interaction between Trump and Putin. Colonelcassad, citing the US State Department, reports that a personal meeting between Trump and Putin will happen "very soon." This further fuels speculation and highlights the focus on Trump's potential involvement. TASS reports the birth of Donald Trump's eleventh grandchild, a social note about a key figure in this speculation.
Ukraine-UK Relations: Previously reported alleged arson incidents involving a Ukrainian citizen and properties linked to the British Prime Minister.
NATO Development: Previously reported on NATO developing a heavy-lift quadcopter. Colonelcassad reports on Estonian defense force exercises "Hedgehog-2025" with significant NATO participation, framing it as directed against Russia.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
High-Level Military Personnel Changes: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report the appointment of General-Colonel Valeriy Solodchuk as the Commander of the Central Military District, replacing Andrei Mordvichev. This is a significant change in the high-level Russian military command structure.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat and are claiming tactical successes in multiple areas of Donetsk Oblast. They continue to utilize KABs and a wide range of drones. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed effectiveness against Ukrainian forces and equipment. MoD Russia reports the liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka. Colonelcassad shares maps claiming zones of control and advancement of Russian forces on the Konstantinovka and Southern Donetsk directions as of May 15, 2025. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian VDV are gaining air superiority over Chasiv Yar by destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian system for detecting enemy artillery positions and directing drones, highlighting military technology and tactics. Colonelcassad presents information on the new shortened AK-12 variants (AK-12K and AK-12SK), indicating ongoing Russian military-industrial complex development and adaptation based on battlefield experience. «Инженеры ЧФ» shares a video demonstrating a homemade mine trap, highlighting ongoing technical improvisation in mine warfare. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the continuation of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense systems downed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast.
Casualty Reports: Previously reported civilian and military casualties. ТАСС reports that five volunteers from Dagestan were killed during a bombing in the Jabalia camp in Gaza. This highlights the human cost of conflicts in other regions and involves Russian citizens.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. НгП раZVедка expresses strong opinions on the Ukrainian negotiation stance, likely for propaganda purposes. Два майора claims Russia used "HOHLYACHOK," which could be part of an information operation. Старше Эдды expresses skepticism that the Ukrainian delegation will arrive for talks, potentially to influence perceptions of the negotiations. Colonelcassad criticizes a former Armenian Ministry of Defense spokesperson's view on Stalingrad, which is an instance of information operations and historical revisionism. Kadyrov_95 provides an update on significant construction projects in Grozny, likely to project an image of successful development within Russia. Alex Parker Returns promotes a bot, which, while not directly military propaganda, relates to information and cybersecurity. Colonelcassad reports on Estonian defense force exercises "Hedgehog-2025" with significant NATO participation, framing it as directed against Russia, likely for propaganda purposes. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a statement from US Senator Marco Rubio (misidentified as Secretary of State), which is likely used to support the narrative that a breakthrough requires Trump's involvement. Colonelcassad presents information on the new shortened AK-12 variants, which serves as promotional material for the Russian military-industrial complex. MoD Russia reports the liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka, which is strategic messaging. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo of a Telegram message from Dmitry Medvedev with critical commentary, providing insight into how Russian official statements are used and responded to within the broader information environment. Colonelcassad reiterates the claim about the negotiation start time and accuses Ukraine of "clownery" and suggests US influence, which is part of ongoing information operations surrounding the peace talks.Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces, which could be used to portray Ukrainian tactics negatively.
Resource Mobilization: Previously reported on fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment. Colonelcassad shares a video showing military units receiving aid and provides donation details. This indicates ongoing efforts to mobilize resources for the military through non-governmental channels.
Morale: Previously reported on factors potentially affecting morale.
Internal Security: Previously reported on domestic security incidents and legal proceedings. ТАСС reports that five volunteers from Dagestan were killed during a bombing in the Jabalia camp in Gaza, highlighting the human cost of conflicts in other regions and potentially impacting internal sentiment. ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs has identified a new cyber scam scheme using fake emails from Google. This highlights ongoing efforts to identify and report on internal security threats, specifically cybercrime.
Mine Clearing: Previously reported on mine clearing operations in areas where Russia claims advances. «Инженеры ЧФ» shares a video demonstrating a homemade mine trap, highlighting ongoing technical improvisation in mine warfare. Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms by Ukrainian forces near Kremennaya, which would necessitate counter-mine measures and training.
Civilian Impact: Previously reported on the impact of the conflict on civilians. ТАСС reports that five volunteers from Dagestan were killed during a bombing in the Jabalia camp in Gaza.
Desire for Conflict to End: Previously reported on some expressed desire for the conflict to end.
Defense Planning: Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of a Russian Presidential Decree extending the Russian Defense Plan to 2027. This is a significant strategic development indicating Russia's long-term planning for defense.
Social Notes:TASS reports the birth of Donald Trump's eleventh grandchild.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports that the US delegation plans to meet with the Ukrainian side, including Foreign Minister Sibiga, separately in Istanbul, indicating ongoing international support. ТАСС reports that Merz stated that there are currently no plans to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, highlighting limitations on military aid from Germany. Colonelcassad reports on Estonian defense force exercises "Hedgehog-2025" with observers from Ukraine, highlighting ongoing international military cooperation.
Military Support (Russia): Previously reported on public donations and fundraising for military needs. Colonelcassad presents information on the new shortened AK-12 variants, which is relevant to providing equipment to Russian forces. Colonelcassad shares a video showing military units receiving aid (tactical medicine, food, equipment) from the International Public Organization "Veche" and provides donation details. This indicates ongoing efforts to provide military support through non-governmental channels.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's conversation with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and Andriy Shevchenko, where Zelenskyy thanked FIFA for its support, which could translate to humanitarian or other forms of support.
Civilian Support (Russia): Previously reported on civilian financial support for military efforts. ТАСС reports that five volunteers from Dagestan were killed during a bombing in the Jabalia camp in Gaza while distributing aid. This highlights humanitarian efforts involving Russian citizens in other conflicts.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts. Utilizing drones for various purposes. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks. Engaging in high-level negotiations. Participating in international military exercises as observers. Seeking continued international military and political support. Experiencing limitations in obtaining certain advanced weaponry (Taurus missiles from Germany). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Operations Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Ukrainian forces using "Baba Yaga" heavy bomber drones over Chasiv Yar and Russian VDV destroying them, indicating the types of drones and areas of operation. Colonelcassad shares disturbing images and commentary related to alleged Ukrainian casualties near Sudzha, implying Ukrainian military presence in that area. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report that enemy kamikaze drones continue to move westward through Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity targeting or transiting this region. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense systems downed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast.Colonelcassad reports the alleged use of mines disguised as mushrooms near Kremennaya in the LPR.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations and developing counter-mine measures. Developing and introducing new small arms variants. Engaging in diplomatic efforts in Istanbul. Experiencing casualties in other conflicts (Gaza). MoD Russia reports the liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka. Colonelcassad shares maps claiming zones of control and advancement of Russian forces on the Konstantinovka and Southern Donetsk directions as of May 15, 2025. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB on Sloviansk. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian VDV are gaining air superiority over Chasiv Yar by destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian system for detecting enemy artillery positions and directing drones, highlighting military technology and tactics. Colonelcassad presents information on the new shortened AK-12 variants (AK-12K and AK-12SK), indicating ongoing Russian military-industrial complex development and adaptation based on battlefield experience. «Инженеры ЧФ» shares a video demonstrating a homemade mine trap, highlighting ongoing technical improvisation in mine warfare. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the continuation of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. This indicates sustained Russian aerial strikes targeting this region. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report that enemy kamikaze drones continue to move westward through Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity targeting or transiting this region. Colonelcassad shares a video showing military units receiving aid and provides donation details. This indicates ongoing efforts to support Russian military units and highlights logistical aspects. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on the movement of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs being launched from occupied Kherson Oblast targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense systems downed two Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts overnight.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation and the potential for a Trump-Putin meeting. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are participating in military exercises near Russia and providing military aid to Ukraine (Croatia providing tanks, Germany's stance on Taurus missiles). A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on Turkish facilitation and Russian readiness for talks in Istanbul. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing CNN, reports on the US delegation's plans in Istanbul. Alex Parker Returns and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report on US expectations regarding a Trump-Putin meeting. Colonelcassad reports on Estonian defense force exercises "Hedgehog-2025" with significant NATO participation and observers from Ukraine. ТАСС reports that Merz stated that there are currently no plans to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Colonelcassad, citing the US State Department, reports that a personal meeting between Trump and Putin will happen "very soon." This involves the US as a third party in a potentially significant diplomatic event related to the conflict. РБК-Україна reports the results of the Eurovision 2025 second semifinal, involving various European and other countries. Colonelcassad suggests the US has compelled Ukraine to attend the negotiations in Istanbul.TASS reports the birth of Donald Trump's eleventh grandchild.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The claimed liberation of Torskoye and Novoaleksandrovka and claimed advances in other areas of Donetsk Oblast, if verified, represent tactical gains for Russia contributing to their strategic objective of securing the Donbas. The visual information from the maps supports these claims and highlights the persistent Russian strategic effort in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine's continued defense and reported losses inflicted on Russian forces indicate strong resistance and the high cost of these advances. The sustained high number of combat engagements underscores the strategic importance of the ground war. The continuation of Russian guided aerial bomb launches on Donetsk Oblast, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine, indicates a sustained strategic effort to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure in this key area.
The extension of the Russian Defense Plan to 2027 is a significant strategic development, indicating Russia's long-term planning and preparedness for a potentially protracted period of defense-related activities. This suggests a strategic adaptation to the current geopolitical environment and likely involves continued investment in military capabilities.
The ongoing widespread Russian drone activity across multiple regions, including the warning of strike UAVs in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts and updated tracking information, highlights a persistent strategic effort to degrade Ukrainian defenses, infrastructure, and potentially target key areas. This necessitates sustained and effective Ukrainian air defense across the entire country. The development of a heavy-lift quadcopter by NATO indicates a strategic focus on enhancing logistical and reconnaissance capabilities through unmanned systems. The continued westward movement of Russian kamikaze drones in Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force and RBC-Ukraine, suggests a strategic intent to target areas further west in Ukraine or potentially conduct reconnaissance with a westward trajectory. The updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts with westward/southwestward trajectories and the warning for Poltava Oblast indicate a broadening and potentially coordinated strategic aerial offensive aimed at targets deeper within Ukraine or across multiple operational directions.The warning of strike UAVs from occupied Kherson targeting Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts highlights a persistent southern strategic vector for Russian aerial attacks.The Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the downing of Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts indicates continued Ukrainian strategic efforts to target Russian border regions.
The diplomatic activities in Istanbul, particularly the Russian delegation stating they will wait for the Ukrainian delegation and the nuanced US approach of meeting separately with Ukraine, underscore the strategic importance of these potential negotiations, even if a breakthrough remains uncertain. The US expectation of a Trump-Putin meeting soon and Senator Rubio's view on its necessity for a breakthrough highlights the strategic focus on potential high-level engagement. The hardline stance expressed by some Russian military bloggers contrasts with the official readiness for talks and reflects differing strategic perspectives within Russia. Colonelcassad, citing the US State Department, reporting the expectation of a Trump-Putin meeting "very soon" further emphasizes the strategic focus on high-level diplomatic engagement as a potential avenue for a breakthrough. Colonelcassad's reiteration of the Russian claim about the negotiation start time and accusation of Ukrainian "clownery" is part of the ongoing strategic information operation to shape narratives about the peace process and portray Russia as ready while Ukraine is not.The suggestion that the US has compelled Ukraine to attend the talks is a strategic framing to highlight perceived US influence.
Changes in Russian high-level military command, such as the appointment of General-Colonel Valeriy Solodchuk, are strategically significant as they could influence Russia's operational planning, tactics, and overall strategic approach.
Russian propaganda and information operations, including claims of advances, highlighting military capabilities, and framing NATO exercises as aggressive, are key strategic tools aimed at shaping narratives and influencing perceptions. Counter-propaganda efforts by Ukrainian sources and others are strategically important. The criticism of the Armenian historian's view on Stalingrad is an example of utilizing historical narratives for strategic messaging. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo of a Telegram message from Dmitry Medvedev with critical commentary demonstrates how Ukrainian sources are engaging in information operations to counter or respond to Russian official statements and propaganda. Colonelcassad's reiteration of the Russian narrative on negotiations and the accusation of Ukrainian "clownery" are examples of strategic information operations.The report of alleged Ukrainian mines disguised as mushrooms could be used in strategic information operations to portray Ukrainian tactics negatively and potentially influence perceptions of the conflict.
The charge against a Ukrainian citizen for alleged arson related to the British Prime Minister's properties is a significant development that could have diplomatic and strategic implications for Ukraine's relationship with the UK and potentially other international partners.
The report that Germany has no plans to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine is a significant statement regarding the limitations of military aid from a key international partner and could influence Ukraine's strategic planning regarding long-range strike capabilities.
Zelenskyy's engagement with the FIFA President and Andriy Shevchenko on peace and diplomacy highlights the strategic use of non-traditional channels for diplomatic messaging and seeking international support.
The presentation of new shortened AK-12 variants by Kalashnikov, developed with experience from the conflict, indicates ongoing strategic adaptation and development within the Russian military-industrial complex to meet the demands of modern warfare.
The demonstration of a homemade mine trap highlights the strategic importance of technical improvisation and counter-mine warfare in the current conflict. Colonelcassad's report of alleged Ukrainian mines disguised as mushrooms also highlights the strategic importance of mine warfare tactics and counter-measures.
The report on the new cyber scam scheme identified by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs highlights ongoing cybersecurity threats within Russia, which are relevant to the broader information warfare landscape and could have strategic implications for data security and public trust.
Colonelcassad sharing a video showing military units receiving aid and providing donation details is relevant to the strategic consideration of resource mobilization and the role of non-governmental support in sustaining military operations.
The reporting of the Eurovision 2025 second semifinal results, while primarily cultural, is relevant in the broader strategic context as it highlights international engagement and participation, which can influence public sentiment and diplomatic relationships.
The TASS report on the birth of Donald Trump's grandchild, while seemingly minor, is relevant in the strategic context as it involves a key international figure central to speculation about potential high-level negotiations.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
