Sitrep 2025-05-15 19:41:25

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 15, 2025, 19:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains highly dynamic, characterized by intense ground combat primarily in Donetsk Oblast, persistent Russian aerial activity including confirmed KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, and widespread drone activity on both sides. Significant updates include Russian claims of advances on multiple fronts, including the Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and Dzerzhynsk directions in Donetsk Oblast, and near Loknya and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast. Ukraine confirms intense combat across the front line, reporting a high number of engagements and detailing successful defensive actions and destruction of Russian equipment. Diplomatic efforts in Istanbul continue to be a focal point, marked by uncertainty regarding the exact timing and format of direct Russia-Ukraine talks, although a meeting between the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Russian delegation has concluded, and a trilateral meeting involving Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine is reportedly planned for Friday. The composition of the Ukrainian negotiation delegation has been officially approved, emphasizing security and military expertise. There are conflicting reports regarding former US President Trump's potential attendance at the Istanbul talks, with the US administration expecting a meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon," while a high-level US official is reportedly not attending talks with Russia due to the perceived "lower level" of the Russian delegation. Internal Russian issues include changes in high-level military command, ongoing legal proceedings, and discussions about support for military personnel. ASTRA continues to highlight the humanitarian impact of the conflict, reporting on the destruction of an animal shelter in Kherson due to Russian shelling. Ukrainian counterintelligence efforts are highlighted by the detention of an FSB agent in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine is actively engaged in drone warfare, air defense, and international diplomatic outreach. A new Russian military blogger report claims Russian forces have advanced significantly on the Konstantinovka direction (4.5 km towards Zorya) and made progress east of Zelenoye Pole.

Significant new updates:

Claimed Russian Advances on Konstantinovka Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims successful offensive actions on the Konstantinovka direction, clearing the outskirts of Yablonovka and fortifications along the highway from Novoolenovka. They report developing the offensive towards Zorya after the "liberation" of Alexandropol, with an advance of 4.5 km towards Zorya and the destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck with personnel by a kamikaze drone in the settlement. They also report advances east of Zelenoye Pole and that the enemy is withdrawing forces between Panteleimonovka and Pravdovka to prevent encirclement. Additionally, they claim advances west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. These claims, if verified, represent significant Russian territorial gains in this area of Donetsk Oblast. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Offensive Actions on Northern Kharkiv Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report on a Russian attempted assault this morning on the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast against the positions of the 92nd Assault Brigade. The assault involved armored vehicles, a significant number of personnel, and soldiers on motorcycles and quadbikes. The attack was reportedly unsuccessful for the Russians, with equipment destroyed by mines and personnel hit by artillery and drones. The 92nd Brigade also reportedly successfully shot down Russian drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also shares a video related to Russian motorcycle infantry, framed with a comment about not giving them motorcycles. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Updated Combat Engagements and Russian Activity: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an update on the operational situation as of 22:00 on May 15, 2025, stating that 117 combat engagements have occurred so far today, a decrease from yesterday's total but still indicative of intense fighting. They report that Russian forces conducted 42 aviation strikes, dropping 65 guided aerial bombs, launched 1104 kamikaze drones, and carried out almost four thousand shellings today. Ukrainian defenders are reportedly holding back Russian advances. Specific numbers of Russian attacks and repelled assaults are provided for various directions: six offensive actions on the Kharkiv direction (one ongoing), two attacks repelled on the Kupiansk direction, 15 attacks on the Lyman direction (two ongoing), three attacks repelled on the Siversk direction, seven attacks on the Kramatorsk direction (one ongoing), five assaults on the Toretsk direction (four repelled), a high number of attempts (35 repelled, 12 ongoing) on the Pokrovsk direction, 14 attempts on the Novopavlivka direction (four ongoing), no offensive actions on the Huliaipole direction, three assaults repelled on the Orikhiv direction, and one attempt repelled on the Prydniprovsk direction. On the Kursk direction, there were 13 battles (one ongoing), nine aviation strikes (13 guided bombs), and 206 artillery shellings (eight MLRS). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Significant Russian Personnel and Equipment Losses Claimed on Pokrovsk Direction: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports significant Russian losses on the Pokrovsk direction today, with preliminary data indicating 161 occupants neutralized (90 killed), and the destruction of six vehicles, 11 motorcycles, 12 UAVs, two trench EW systems, a satellite communication terminal, and a Murom-M surveillance station. Additionally, a Russian tank, a cannon, and two vehicles were damaged. These figures highlight the intensity of fighting in this area and successful Ukrainian defensive actions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Meeting Between Turkish Foreign Minister and Russian Delegation Concluded: ТАСС reports that the negotiations between Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan and Russian representative Medinsky in Istanbul have concluded. This confirms a preliminary meeting has taken place. (ТАСС)
Trilateral Meeting Planned for Friday in Istanbul: ТАСС, citing a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, reports that a three-sided meeting between Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine is planned for Friday in Istanbul. Reuters also reports this, citing a Turkish diplomatic source, mentioning possible formats as US-Ukraine-Turkey and Russia-Ukraine-Turkey trilateral meetings, with a four-party format (including the US) uncertain. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports details on the planned formats, including a potential four-party meeting that is unconfirmed. (ТАСС, Reuters, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
High-Level US Official Not Attending Talks with Russia Due to Delegation Level: РБК-Україна reports that a high-level US official (identified as Rubio, likely US Secretary of State Antony Blinken based on previous reports) will not be present at the negotiations with Russia in Istanbul due to the Russians sending a "lower level" delegation. However, the US official plans to meet with the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andrii Sybiha, and representatives of the Ukrainian delegation on May 16th. (РБК-Україна)
US Administration Expects Trump-Putin Meeting "Very Soon": ТАСС reports that the US administration expects that a personal meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will happen "very soon," according to the White House. This adds to the speculation surrounding Trump's potential role in negotiations. РБК-Україна had previously reported on Trump's ambiguous statement about his destination, which could be linked to these talks. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Use of Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV on the Frontline: Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary suggesting that the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV is being used not only for long-range strikes but also against targets in the Russian near rear. He describes the sound as similar to a gasoline "Baba Yaga" and claims the warhead is filled with steel balls. This indicates the potential operational deployment of this Ukrainian UAV closer to the front lines. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising for Drone Equipment: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is conducting a fundraising campaign for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a comrade, highlighting the continued need for such equipment among Russian units and reliance on public support. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Military Police Detain Woman with Fake Suicide Belt in Moscow: Новости Москвы reports that a woman was detained at a bank in Moscow after entering, threatening employees, demanding money, and wearing a fake suicide belt. Preliminary information suggests she was acting under the direction of fraudsters. While not directly related to military operations, this highlights a domestic security incident in Russia. (Новости Москвы)
Ukrainian Drones Reported Over Donetsk City and Other Occupied Areas: Mash на Донбассе reports that Ukrainian drones have been spotted over Donetsk city, with sounds of "mopeds" and air defense activity heard in almost all districts. They also report drones flying in the areas of Makeyevka, Yenakiyevo, Khartsyzk, and Snezhnoe. This indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity over occupied territories. (Mash на Донбассе)
Russian MoD Claims Destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" Drones by FPV Drones: MoD Russia shares a video claiming that FPV drone teams of the "Zapad" Group of Forces successfully neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" strike drones by ramming and downing them. This highlights Russian tactics in countering larger Ukrainian strike drones and the ongoing drone-on-drone engagements. (MoD Russia)
Russian Engineers Clearing Mines in "Liberated" Settlements in Krasnoarmeysk Direction: MoD Russia shares a video showing engineers of the "Tsentr" Group clearing mines and unexploded ordnance in reportedly "liberated" settlements on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. This suggests Russian efforts to consolidate control in areas where they claim advances and indicates the presence of mined areas in the conflict zone. (MoD Russia)
Russian State TV Reports Russian Delegation Ready for Talks, Ukraine Did Not Show Up: Colonelcassad shares a video from RT claiming that the Russian delegation arrived at the Russian Consulate General in Istanbul this morning and was ready for negotiations, but the Ukrainian delegation did not appear. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Successful Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment by Drones on Konstantinovka Direction: Два майора shares a video claiming that the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying enemy vehicles, personnel, equipment, and supplies on the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting that soon the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have no equipment left in this area. This is a Russian claim of success in drone warfare. (Два майора)
Discovery of Secret US Missile Base Under Greenland Ice (Historical Context): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing The Wall Street Journal, reports on the discovery and history of "Camp Century," a secret US base under the ice in Greenland built in 1959 with a tunnel system and command post, designed to store and launch 600 medium-range missiles. The base was abandoned in 1967 due to ice movement but is now being considered for potential future use. While historical, this highlights the strategic importance of the Arctic and the potential for hidden infrastructure in challenging environments. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk, Konstantinovka, Dzerzhynsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Stupochki, Bogatyr, Malinovka, Mirolyubovka, Novosergeyevka, Verkhnekamenskoye, Poltavka, Rusinyi Yar, Novosergiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriyivka, Promin, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Zorya, Popove Yar, Stara Mykolaivka, Konstantynopillia, Shcherbinovka, Shakhtarsky direction, Yablonovka, Novooleynovka, Zelenoye Pole, Vodyanoye Vtoroye): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 117 combat engagements across the entire front line today, with a high number of attempts (35 repelled, 12 ongoing) on the Pokrovsk direction, 14 attempts on the Novopavlivka direction (four ongoing), and 15 attacks on the Lyman direction (two ongoing). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims successful offensive actions on the Konstantinovka direction, including advances towards Zorya (4.5 km) and east of Zelenoye Pole, and claims the enemy is withdrawing forces between Panteleimonovka and Pravdovka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also claims advances west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian advances on the Dzerzhynsk direction, advancing 1 km west from the Toretskaya mine waste heap and towards the mine named after St. Matrona Moskovskaya. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims successful offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction, clearing an area south of Myrolyubivka, advancing 2.5 kilometers, and taking control of the Myrolyubivka reservoir, while stating Myrolyubivka itself is not fully liberated. They also report improved positions north-east of Kotlino, Kotlyarivka is partially in the gray zone, and fighting in Novooleksandrivka is ongoing clearing operations. Colonelcassad and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim Russian advances and consolidation in the industrial zone in Stupochki on the Chasiv Yar direction. MoD Russia claims Russian engineers are clearing mines in "liberated" settlements in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. MoD Russia shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position in the South Donetsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian soldiers in anti-drone cloaks on the Lyman direction. Mash на Донбассе reports Ukrainian drones have been spotted over Donetsk city, Makeyevka, Yenakiyevo, Khartsyzk, and Snezhnoe. РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian "Typhoon" UAV unit destroyed Russian tanks and infantry on the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams of the "Zapad" Group of Forces neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Два майора claims the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment on the Konstantinovka direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ, Mash на Донбассе, РБК-Україна, Два майора)
Sumy Oblast (Sumy, Tёtkino, Loknya, Vodolagi): Affected by Russian aerial activity and claimed ground advances. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast from the north, with repeated launches, and a threat of enemy strike UAVs. WarGonzo claims Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tёtkino and are advancing in the areas of Loknya and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, WarGonzo)
Kharkiv Oblast (Eastern Outskirts of Kharkiv, Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Vysokiy Yar, Dovhenke, Kudiivka, Kupiansk, Pishchane, Zahryzove, Kruhliakivka, Vovchanski Khutory): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east, with repeated launches, and enemy UAV activity on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports six offensive actions on the Kharkiv direction (one ongoing) and two attacks repelled on the Kupiansk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report on a Russian attempted assault this morning on the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, involving armored vehicles, personnel, motorcycles, and quadbikes, which was repelled. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports claimed Russian advances on the Kharkiv direction, taking control of 16 houses and pushing back Ukrainian forces towards Vovchanski Khutory. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Affected by military activity. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 13 battles (one ongoing), nine aviation strikes (13 guided bombs), and 206 artillery shellings (eight MLRS) on the Kursk direction today. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is appealing for donations for drones for Russian forces on the Kursk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district): Affected by Russian aerial reconnaissance UAV activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in the Nikopol district. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kherson Oblast (Kherson): Affected by Russian shelling. ASTRA reports a Russian attack on Kherson on May 14th destroyed an animal shelter, causing animal deaths and injuries. (ASTRA)
Kyiv (Sviatoshynskyi district): Affected by an internal security incident (shooting). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ reported a shooting incident at a hotel this morning. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Istanbul (Turkey): The planned location for negotiations. Reports confirm the conclusion of talks between the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Russian delegation, and a trilateral meeting involving Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine is reportedly planned for Friday. (ТАСС, Reuters)
United States (Washington): The US administration expects a Trump-Putin meeting "very soon." A high-level US official is reportedly not attending talks with Russia in Istanbul but will meet with the Ukrainian delegation. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Greenland: Historical strategic importance highlighted by the report on the discovery of a secret US missile base. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Moscow (Russia): Affected by a domestic security incident (woman with fake suicide belt detained at a bank). (Новости Москвы)
Occupied Territories (Donetsk City, Makeyevka, Yenakiyevo, Khartsyzk, Snezhnoe, Krasnoarmeysk direction): Affected by Ukrainian drone activity and Russian mine clearing operations. Mash на Донбассе reports Ukrainian drones over these areas. MoD Russia claims Russian engineers are clearing mines in "liberated" settlements in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (Mash на Донbasse, MoD Russia)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains highly significant, with widespread Russian and Ukrainian drone activity. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia used 1104 kamikaze drones today and reports destruction of 12 Ukrainian UAVs on the Pokrovsk direction today. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and enemy UAV activity on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv, as well as a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Russian attempted assault on northern Kharkiv involved soldiers on motorcycles and quadbikes supported by drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Ukrainian pickup truck was destroyed by a kamikaze drone on the Konstantinovka direction and is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is appealing for donations for drones for Russian forces on the Kursk direction. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the tactical use of armed FPV drones. Colonelcassad shares a video suggesting the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV is being used against targets in the Russian near rear. Mash на Донбассе reports Ukrainian drones over Donetsk city and other occupied areas. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams of the "Zapad" Group of Forces neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" strike drones by ramming and downing them. РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian "Typhoon" UAV unit destroyed Russian tanks and infantry on the Pokrovsk direction. Два майора claims the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment on the Konstantinovka direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Mash на Донбассе, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, Два майора)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia dropped 65 guided aerial bombs today. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast from the north and Kharkiv Oblast from the east, with repeated launches. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia conducted nine aviation strikes, dropping 13 guided bombs on the Kursk direction today. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia conducted 42 aviation strikes today and nine aviation strikes on the Kursk direction. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian tactical aviation activity on the eastern and northeastern directions. Colonelcassad shares a video suggesting the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV is being used against targets in the Russian near rear. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia conducted almost four thousand shellings today, including 93 from MLRS, and 206 artillery shellings (eight MLRS) on the Kursk direction today. MoD Russia shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position in the South Donetsk direction. ASTRA reports a Russian attack on Kherson on May 14th destroyed an animal shelter, implying the use of explosive munitions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, ASTRA)
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported in the latest messages. The report on the historical US base in Greenland is related to strategic presence in maritime environments. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering Russian aerial threats. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports possible air defense work in the Nikopol district. Mash на Донбассе reports air defense activity over Donetsk city. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams of the "Zapad" Group of Forces neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" strike drones by ramming and downing them, highlighting Russian counter-drone tactics. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mash на Донбассе, MoD Russia)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat in Donetsk and other areas implies ongoing artillery fire. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia conducted almost four thousand shellings today, including 93 from MLRS, and 206 artillery shellings (eight MLRS) on the Kursk direction today. MoD Russia shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position in the South Donetsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Russian attempted assault on northern Kharkiv involved personnel hit by artillery. ASTRA reports a Russian attack on Kherson on May 14th destroyed an animal shelter, implying the use of artillery or other explosive munitions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports destruction of two Russian trench EW systems on the Pokrovsk direction today. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions and preparations for negotiations in Istanbul continue. The Ukrainian delegation composition has been officially approved. A meeting between the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Russian delegation has concluded. A trilateral meeting involving Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine is reportedly planned for Friday. Conflicting reports exist regarding former US President Trump's potential attendance. A high-level US official is reportedly not attending talks with Russia due to the perceived level of the Russian delegation but will meet with the Ukrainian side separately. The US administration expects a personal meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon." Colonelcassad shares a video from RT claiming the Russian delegation was ready for talks this morning, but Ukraine did not show up. (ТАСС, Reuters, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
International Support for Ukraine: The composition of the Ukrainian negotiation delegation, including high-ranking military and intelligence officials, suggests continued international engagement and the importance of security guarantees in any potential agreement. The separate meeting planned between a high-level US official and the Ukrainian delegation on May 16th indicates continued US support and engagement. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul, though the timing is uncertain. The approval of the Ukrainian delegation is a significant step towards these talks. Colonelcassad shares a video from RT claiming the Russian delegation was ready for talks this morning, but Ukraine did not show up. (ТАСС, Reuters, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy has officially approved the composition of the negotiation delegation. An internal security incident occurred in Kyiv (shooting). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ reported a shooting incident at a hotel in Kyiv. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Changes in high-level military command are reported. Ongoing legal proceedings are noted (lawsuit regarding inheritance). A domestic security incident occurred in Moscow (woman with fake suicide belt detained at a bank). Discussions about support for military personnel are ongoing (fundraising for drones, veteran rehabilitation). The report on the discovery of a historical US base in Greenland could be used in Russian strategic narratives related to historical Western military presence and potential threats. (НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
US Stance on Negotiations: A high-level US official is reportedly not attending the talks with Russia due to the perceived level of the Russian delegation but will meet with the Ukrainian side separately, indicating a nuanced US approach to the negotiations. The US administration expects a personal meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon," adding to the speculation about Trump's potential involvement. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Turkey is actively facilitating potential negotiations in Istanbul, with the Turkish Foreign Minister meeting with the Russian delegation and a trilateral meeting reportedly planned for Friday. (ТАСС, Reuters)
Speculation on Trump's Role: Conflicting reports exist regarding former US President Trump's potential attendance in Istanbul. The US administration expects a personal meeting between Trump and Putin "very soon." РБК-Україна had previously reported on Trump's ambiguous statement about his destination. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

High-Level Military Personnel Changes: General-Colonel Valeriy Solodchuk has been appointed Commander of the "Center" Group of Forces, as reported by НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, and Два майора. This is a significant change in the command structure. (НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, Два майора)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat and are claiming tactical successes in multiple areas of Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. They continue to utilize KABs and a wide range of drones. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed effectiveness against Ukrainian forces and equipment. WarGonzo claims tactical successes in Bogatyr and claimed liberation of Malinovka and Mirolyubovka, along with reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border. WarGonzo claims Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tёtkino and are advancing near Loknya and Vodolagi. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims significant Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction (4.5 km towards Zorya), advances east of Zelenoye Pole, west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye, advances on the Dzerzhynsk direction (1 km west from the Toretskaya mine waste heap and towards the mine named after St. Matrona Moskovskaya), and advances on the Kharkiv direction (taking control of 16 houses and pushing back Ukrainian forces towards Vovchanski Khutory). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also claims successful offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction, clearing an area south of Myrolyubivka, advancing 2.5 kilometers, and taking control of the Myrolyubivka reservoir. Colonelcassad and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim Russian advances and consolidation in the industrial zone in Stupochki on the Chasiv Yar direction. MoD Russia claims Russian engineers are clearing mines in "liberated" settlements in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. MoD Russia claims the destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position in the South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Два майора claims the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment on the Konstantinovka direction. (WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Два майора)
Casualty Reports: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports preliminary data indicating 161 occupants neutralized (90 killed) on the Pokrovsk direction today. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video allegedly featuring a Russian servicemember expressing fatigue and desire to go home, which could be related to casualties or the intensity of fighting. Colonelcassad shares graphic images and commentary related to the finding of a deceased Ukrainian soldier in the Sudzha border area, presented as evidence of Ukrainian losses. ASTRA reports animal deaths and injuries at an animal shelter in Kherson due to Russian shelling on May 14th. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, and Два майора are commenting on the appointment of General Solodchuk. WarGonzo is claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is claiming significant advances and successful destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Colonelcassad shares graphic images and commentary related to claimed findings in the Sudzha border area. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video allegedly depicting low morale among Russian soldiers. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is making a public appeal for donations for drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed, which could be used in information operations. Colonelcassad shares a video of Russian assault troops before their first battle, focusing on ritual and camaraderie. Colonelcassad shares a video from RT claiming the Russian delegation was ready for talks, but Ukraine did not show up. MoD Russia shares videos of claimed military successes (artillery destruction, drone neutralization, mine clearing). Два майора shares a video claiming effective destruction of Ukrainian equipment by drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on the historical US base in Greenland, citing a Western source, could be used in Ukrainian or Russian information operations. (НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, STERNENKO, MoD Russia, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Resource Mobilization: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is making a public appeal for donations for drones for Russian forces, highlighting resource needs and ongoing activity in that area. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is also conducting a fundraising campaign for drone equipment. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Morale: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video allegedly showing low morale among Russian soldiers. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting Russian assault troops before their first battle, focusing on a ritual and camaraderie, likely aimed at boosting morale and portraying a sense of unity and purpose. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Colonelcassad)
Internal Security: A domestic security incident occurred in Moscow (woman with fake suicide belt detained at a bank). (Новости Москвы)
Mine Clearing: MoD Russia claims Russian engineers are clearing mines in "liberated" settlements in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating the presence of mined areas and Russian efforts to secure captured territory. (MoD Russia)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): The composition of the Ukrainian negotiation delegation, including high-ranking military officials, suggests continued reliance on international support and security guarantees in any potential agreement. The planned meeting between a high-level US official and the Ukrainian delegation on May 16th indicates ongoing US support. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Military Support (Russia): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is making a public appeal for donations for drones, highlighting the need for external support for Russian forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is also conducting a fundraising campaign for drone equipment. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): The incident at the Alley of Heroes in Kyiv and the response by the city administration highlight the need for support and security for civilians impacted by the conflict. ASTRA reports the destruction of an animal shelter in Kherson and the need to transport injured animals to Odesa for treatment, highlighting the impact on civilian infrastructure and the need for humanitarian support. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts, reporting a high number of engagements and repelled attacks. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. Utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and counter-drone operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones). Employing artillery and potentially other systems to counter Russian advances. Conducting counterintelligence operations (detention of an FSB agent). Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks. Engaging in high-level negotiations. Highlighting successful military unit actions (92nd Assault Brigade). Potentially deploying the An-196 "Lutyi" UAV closer to the front lines. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 117 combat engagements across the entire front line today, with detailed breakdowns of Russian activity and repelled attacks on various directions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports significant Russian personnel and equipment losses on the Pokrovsk direction today, including neutralization of 161 occupants and destruction/damage of various equipment. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance and strike UAV activity in various oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Russian attempted assault on northern Kharkiv involved armored vehicles, personnel, motorcycles, and quadbikes, and that the attack was repelled with the enemy suffering losses from mines, artillery, and drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian soldiers in anti-drone cloaks on the Lyman direction. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting potential Ukrainian use of armed FPV drones. Colonelcassad shares a video suggesting the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV is being used against targets in the Russian near rear. Mash на Донбассе reports Ukrainian drones over occupied territories. РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian "Typhoon" UAV unit destroyed Russian tanks and infantry on the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported the detention of an FSB agent in Donetsk Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Mash на Донбассе, РБК-Україна)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones. Claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Using tactics like motorcycle and quadbike assaults, although with reported heavy losses in at least one instance. Facing effective Ukrainian resistance and inflicting significant losses. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment like drones. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations in areas where they claim advances. Using FPV drones to counter Ukrainian strike drones. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 117 combat engagements today, with detailed breakdowns of Russian attacks on various directions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia used 1104 kamikaze drones, dropped 65 guided aerial bombs, and conducted almost four thousand shellings today. WarGonzo claims tactical successes in Bogatyr and claimed liberation of Malinovka and Mirolyubovka, along with reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border. WarGonzo claims Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tёtkino and are advancing near Loknya and Vodolagi. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims significant Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction (4.5 km towards Zorya), advances east of Zelenoye Pole, west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye, advances on the Dzerzhynsk direction (1 km west from the Toretskaya mine waste heap and towards the mine named after St. Matrona Moskovskaya), and advances on the Kharkiv direction (taking control of 16 houses and pushing back Ukrainian forces towards Vovchanski Khutory). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also claims successful offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction, clearing an area south of Myrolyubivka, advancing 2.5 kilometers, and taking control of the Myrolyubivka reservoir. Colonelcassad and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim Russian advances and consolidation in the industrial zone in Stupochki on the Chasiv Yar direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report on a Russian attempted assault this morning on northern Kharkiv, which was repelled with the enemy suffering losses from mines, artillery, and drones. MoD Russia claims Russian engineers are clearing mines in "liberated" settlements in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. MoD Russia claims the destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position in the South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian "Typhoon" UAV unit destroyed Russian tanks and infantry on the Pokrovsk direction, implying Russian presence and equipment in that area. Два майора claims the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment on the Konstantinovka direction, implying Russian drone activity and success. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, Два майора)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging separately with the Ukrainian delegation and expressing a view on the level of the Russian delegation. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. (ТАСС, Reuters, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued use of artillery, mortars, KABs, and a variety of drones (including kamikaze and reconnaissance) by Russian forces. Reported use of motorcycle and quadbike assaults by Russian forces, although with noted high casualties in one instance. Ukrainian use of drones for various purposes, including counter-drone operations. Use of FPV drones by both sides. Reported use of the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV closer to the front lines. Use of mines by Ukrainian forces in defensive positions. Russian mine clearing operations. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports Russia used 1104 kamikaze drones and dropped 65 guided aerial bombs today. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports significant Russian equipment losses on the Pokrovsk direction today, including vehicles, motorcycles, UAVs, EW systems, and a surveillance station. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Russian attempted assault on northern Kharkiv involved armored vehicles, personnel, motorcycles, and quadbikes, and that the enemy suffered losses from mines, artillery, and drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Ukrainian pickup truck was destroyed by a kamikaze drone on the Konstantinovka direction and is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is appealing for donations for drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay. Colonelcassad shares a video suggesting the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV is being used against targets in the Russian near rear. MoD Russia claims FPV drone teams neutralized three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian "Typhoon" UAV unit destroyed Russian tanks and infantry on the Pokrovsk direction. Два майора claims the "Good Guys" UAV unit is effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment on the Konstantinovka direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, Два майора)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat and Russian claims of significant advances on multiple fronts, particularly the reported 4.5 km advance towards Zorya on the Konstantinovka direction and the claimed advances on the Dzerzhynsk, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, and Sumy directions, if verified, represent a persistent strategic effort by Russia to achieve territorial gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces. These claimed tactical successes contribute to Russia's broader strategic objectives in eastern and northeastern Ukraine. Ukraine's reports of repelling a high number of assaults and inflicting significant losses, particularly the detailed losses reported on the Pokrovsk direction, indicate strong defensive resistance and highlight the costly nature of the Russian offensive for both sides. The sustained high number of combat engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff underscores the overall strategic focus on the ground war.
The confirmed use of KABs on both Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicates a strategic targeting of these border regions with highly destructive munitions. This could be aimed at degrading Ukrainian defenses, impacting civilian areas, supporting potential future ground operations, or diverting Ukrainian resources from other fronts. The reported increase in Russian offensive actions on the Kharkiv and Kupyansk directions further supports the idea of increased Russian pressure in the northeast.
The ongoing widespread Russian drone activity, including the use of a high number of kamikaze drones, reconnaissance UAVs, and strike threats, highlights a persistent strategic effort to gather intelligence, conduct strikes, and potentially overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses across various regions. The report suggesting the use of the Ukrainian An-196 "Lutyi" UAV closer to the front lines indicates a potential Ukrainian strategic effort to employ more advanced drone capabilities for tactical support or targeting the Russian near rear. The reported Ukrainian drone activity over occupied territories also has strategic implications for intelligence gathering and psychological impact. The successful neutralization of Russian "Baba Yaga" drones by Russian FPV drones highlights the evolving tactics and counter-tactics in drone warfare, which has strategic implications for the future of combat.
The official approval of the Ukrainian negotiation delegation, led by the Defense Minister and including high-ranking security and military officials, signals Ukraine's strategic approach to the talks, emphasizing security, defense, and a pragmatic assessment of the battlefield situation.
The delay and uncertainty surrounding the direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, coupled with the low expectations expressed by a high-level US official (who is not attending talks with Russia due to the perceived level of the Russian delegation) and the Turkish Foreign Minister concluding talks with the Russian delegation without immediate confirmation of a four-sided meeting, suggest that achieving a diplomatic breakthrough remains strategically challenging in the immediate term. The US official's reported reason for not attending talks with Russia also highlights strategic perceptions of the level of Russian commitment to serious negotiations. The reported plan for a trilateral meeting involving Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine suggests a potential pathway for continued diplomatic engagement, even if broader formats are uncertain.
Changes in Russian high-level military command, including the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces and the Commander of the "Center" Group, are strategically significant as they could influence Russia's operational planning, tactics, and overall strategic approach to the conflict. The appointment of General Solodchuk, attributed with previous successes by Russian sources, could indicate an intention to replicate those successes in the area of responsibility of the "Center" Group.
Russian propaganda and information operations, particularly the claims of significant advances and successful destruction of Ukrainian equipment, are a key strategic tool aimed at shaping narratives, demoralizing Ukrainian forces, and justifying Russian actions. Counter-propaganda efforts by Ukrainian sources, such as highlighting Russian vulnerabilities and losses and showcasing Ukrainian military successes, are also strategically important. The report on the historical US base in Greenland, while seemingly unrelated, could be strategically utilized by either side in information operations related to military history, capabilities, and geopolitical positioning.
The incident at the Alley of Heroes in Kyiv highlights the strategic challenge of managing the social and psychological impact of the conflict on the civilian population and maintaining internal stability.
Speculation surrounding former President Trump's potential involvement in peace efforts and the expectation of a near-term meeting between Trump and Putin have strategic implications for the broader international context of the conflict and potential future diplomatic initiatives.
The appeal for donations for drones by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 highlights a potential strategic reliance on non-state resources for certain military capabilities within Russia, which could have implications for long-term sustainability and the nature of the Russian war effort.
The reported destruction of an animal shelter in Kherson due to Russian shelling highlights the ongoing strategic impact of Russian actions on civilian infrastructure and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
The detention of an FSB agent in Donetsk Oblast is a strategic success for Ukrainian counterintelligence, aimed at disrupting Russian intelligence gathering and operational planning in a key area.
The domestic security incident in Moscow (woman with fake suicide belt) highlights internal security challenges in Russia, although the reported motive suggests a link to criminal activity rather than political or military objectives.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report