Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 15, 2025, 11:26 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational landscape remains dominated by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Reports indicate continued Russian attempts to advance and ongoing heavy fighting. Aerial activity is extensive, with widespread Russian drone usage, notably with a reported westward movement of "Shahed" drones across several Ukrainian oblasts, and guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes impacting various regions. Diplomatic efforts surrounding planned negotiations in Istanbul are ongoing but marked by delays and conflicting statements on participation and achievable outcomes. Internal Russian affairs and external developments continue to provide context to the broader conflict, with new information highlighting domestic issues and international relations. Ukraine continues defensive operations, counterintelligence efforts, diplomatic engagement, and highlights its efforts in personnel and technological development. Reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from shelling and drone attacks continue.
Key updates and analysis from the latest messages (past hour and new messages):
Russian Claim of Control Over Torskoye: Colonelcassad and MoD Russia share videos and images claiming that Russian forces have taken control of Torskoye on the Krasnolimansk direction and have raised the Russian flag. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also reports this as a new success, describing it as a crucial transport hub. This is a significant claim of territorial gain by Russian forces. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Ukrainian Air Force Reports Drone Activity Near Kharkiv-Donetsk Border: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts moving southwest. This indicates ongoing Russian drone reconnaissance or strike activity in this border area. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Ukrainian Fundraising for Drones: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is conducting a fundraising campaign for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier. This highlights the continued reliance on volunteer efforts to equip Ukrainian forces with essential drone technology. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
WarGonzo Reports on Mobility Challenges in Horlivka Due to Drone Attacks: WarGonzo shares a video claiming that residents of Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast) have switched to bicycles as their primary mode of transport because car travel is too dangerous due to frequent drone attacks, leaving only seconds to react. This report illustrates the significant impact of drone warfare on civilian life and mobility in frontline areas. (WarGonzo)
Poland Not Sending Troops to Ukraine: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports that the Minister of National Defense of Poland stated that Polish military personnel will not be sent to Ukraine, citing a consensus in Polish society on this issue. This refutes previous speculation about potential Polish military presence in Ukraine and clarifies Poland's official stance. The report also comments on the perceived decrease in willingness among European countries to support Ukraine militarily. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russian Delegation Waiting in Istanbul: ТАСС and Два майора report that the Russian delegation has been waiting for their Ukrainian counterparts in Istanbul since the morning, and the Ukrainian delegation has not yet arrived. Песков stated that the meeting has not been canceled and is expected to start in 2-3 hours, but there is no concrete information on the start time. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Government Allocates Additional Funds for IT Mortgage: ТАСС reports that the Russian government will allocate an additional 61 billion rubles for the IT mortgage program. This is a domestic economic policy decision unrelated to military operations. (ТАСС)
SBU and Malyuk Comment on Putin's Absence from Istanbul Talks: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video with commentary suggesting that the SBU and its head, Vasyl Malyuk, know the real reason why Putin was afraid to go to Istanbul, likely a jibe related to security concerns or potential targeting. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Fundraising for Drones for Ukrainian Units: STERNENKO reports that through public support, 300 drones have been provided to various Ukrainian units, including FPV drones for specific brigades and border guards. This highlights successful volunteer fundraising efforts and the continued supply of drones to Ukrainian forces. (STERNENKO)
Putin Not Planning to Visit Istanbul Soon: ТАСС reports that Песков stated that Putin does not plan to visit Istanbul in the coming days. This confirms that Putin will not be present at the current negotiations. (ТАСС)
Ukrainian Response to Russian MFA Statements: РБК-Україна reports that Heorhiy Tychyi, the latest spokesperson for the Ukrainian MFA, responded to the Russian MFA's statements calling Zelenskyy "pathetic" and a "clown," stating that instead of a serious conversation about ending the war, Russia is resorting to personal insults. He also commented that the Russian MFA's role is to "bark from Moscow" as they are not leading the delegation in Turkey. (РБК-Україна)
Zelenskyy and Erdogan Begin Negotiations: ТАСС and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Erdogan has begun in Ankara. (ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Preparation for Putin-Trump Meeting Not Underway: ТАСС reports that Песков stated that preparations for a meeting between Putin and Trump are not currently underway at a substantive level. (ТАСС)
No Concreteness on Istanbul Negotiation Start Time: ТАСС reports that Песков stated there is no specific information on the start time for the upcoming Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul. (ТАСС)
Domestic Incident in Sochi, Russia Involving "SVO" Veteran: ASTRA reports that a 59-year-old veteran of the "SVO" with a prior criminal record was involved in a drunken incident at a restaurant in Sochi where he allegedly threatened a visitor with a pneumatic pistol and had his "awards" torn off. He reportedly called the police himself. A criminal case for threatening murder has been opened. This highlights potential social issues and criminal activity involving some returning veterans in Russia. (ASTRA)
Commentary on "Electronik" Actors Becoming "Cossack Generals": Alex Parker Returns shares photos of the actors who played "Electronik" as children and reports they are now "Cossack generals" in an "SVO" unit, commenting on the contrast and the current reality of the conflict. This is a commentary on social and cultural shifts in Russia related to the conflict. (Alex Parker Returns)
Lavrov States No Foreign Military Presence in Ukraine: Alex Parker Returns and Два майора report that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that there can be no discussion of the presence of foreign military forces in Ukraine. Два майора adds commentary linking previous statements by France, Germany, and the UK about such plans to attempts to create a "European NATO" or "Fourth Reich." This is a clear Russian diplomatic stance on the issue of foreign military intervention. (Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)
Ukrainian Military Blogger Comments on Russian Summer Offensive: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military grouping "Kharkiv" stated that Russia has effectively begun its summer offensive of 2025, and a truce is not expected soon. This is a significant assessment from the Ukrainian side regarding the current phase of the conflict. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Domestic Incident in Karelia, Russia Involving Drunk Military Servicemember: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that a drunk military servicemember in Pitkyaranta, Karelia, shot and killed a man after a quarrel, then shot at police while attempting to escape and barricaded himself in his garage before being apprehended. A criminal case for murder has been opened. This highlights severe criminal activity involving a military servicemember in Russia. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
BRICS Discussions on Alternative Transport Architecture: Рыбарь reports on the BRICS transport infrastructure working group meetings in Brazil, highlighting discussions on urban and international mobility, sustainable transport, creating an Institute for Sustainable Transport, promoting sustainable aviation fuel, and improving air connections, with the stated goal of building an "alternative transport architecture" bypassing the West. This is a significant development in international economic and infrastructure cooperation aimed at reducing reliance on Western systems. (Рыбарь)
Meeting with Families of Ukrainian Marines POWs: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports on a meeting held at the Coordination Headquarters with families of servicemen from the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, discussing prospects for future exchanges, the likelihood of returning Mariupol defenders, cases for releasing priority categories of prisoners with health issues, conditions of detention, sending parcels, and counting service time in captivity. This highlights ongoing efforts to address the critical issue of Ukrainian prisoners of war. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Torskoye, Horlivka, Pokrovsk, Krasnoarmeysk, Krasnolimansk direction): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian forces claim control over Torskoye on the Krasnolimansk direction. WarGonzo reports on the impact of drone attacks on civilian mobility in Horlivka. Ukrainian Air Force reports a target on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts moving southwest. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, WarGonzo, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian fundraising efforts for drones are ongoing. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kharkiv Oblast (Near Kharkiv-Donetsk Border):Ukrainian Air Force reports a target on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts moving southwest.Ukrainian military spokesperson states Russian summer offensive has begun, impacting this key area. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Turkey (Istanbul, Ankara): Continues to be the location for diplomatic negotiations. Russian delegation is waiting for the Ukrainian side in Istanbul. Putin is not planning to visit Istanbul soon. Zelenskyy and Erdogan have begun their meeting in Ankara. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia (Sochi, Karelia, Pitkyaranta, Ivanovo region, Moscow, Yakutia): Various internal issues are reported, including domestic incidents involving veterans and military personnel, criminal activity, and government economic policy decisions. Putin met with the head of the Ivanovo region. (ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns)
Poland: Minister of National Defense stated that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Brazil: Hosted BRICS transport infrastructure working group meetings. (Рыбарь)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains highly significant. Ukrainian Air Force reports a target on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts moving southwest, indicating ongoing Russian drone activity. WarGonzo reports on the impact of frequent drone attacks on civilian mobility in Horlivka. Ukrainian fundraising efforts for drones are ongoing, with a new campaign for a Mavic 3 Pro and signal amplifier.STERNENKO reports the successful delivery of 300 drones to various Ukrainian units through fundraising. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO)
Aviation Activity: No new significant aviation activity reported in the latest messages, although KAB strikes were reported earlier in the day.
Missile Activity: No new missile activity reported in the latest messages.
Naval Activity: No new naval activity reported in the latest messages.
Air Defense Activity: No new air defense activity reported in the latest messages, although Ukrainian air defense is actively countering the ongoing widespread Russian drone attack.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: No new artillery or MLRS activity reported in the latest messages.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue in Turkey. Russian delegation is waiting for the Ukrainian side in Istanbul, and there is no concrete information on the start time.Putin is not planning to visit Istanbul soon.The Ukrainian MFA spokesperson responded to Russian insults towards Zelenskyy, commenting on the Russian delegation's level.Zelenskyy and Erdogan have begun their meeting in Ankara.Preparation for a Putin-Trump meeting is not underway.Lavrov stated that there can be no foreign military presence in Ukraine. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, ТАСС)
International Support for Ukraine: Poland has stated it will not send troops to Ukraine. STERNENKO reports successful fundraising and delivery of 300 drones to Ukrainian units. Meeting with families of Ukrainian Marines POWs highlights ongoing international humanitarian efforts. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, STERNENKO, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Russia-Turkey Relations: Turkey is hosting negotiations. Zelenskyy and Erdogan have begun their meeting in Ankara. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-US Relations: Preparation for a Putin-Trump meeting is not currently underway. (ТАСС)
Russian Internal Politics: Russian government allocates additional funds for IT mortgage. Domestic incidents involving veterans and military personnel are reported. (ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Ukraine Internal Politics: Ukrainian MFA spokesperson responded to Russian MFA statements. Meeting with families of Ukrainian Marines POWs highlights government engagement with military families. (РБК-Україна, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
BRICS Developments: BRICS countries are discussing and building an alternative transport architecture. (Рыбарь)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Civilian Impact: WarGonzo reports on the significant impact of drone attacks on civilian mobility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. (WarGonzo)
Ukrainian Military Training: No new information on Ukrainian military training in the latest messages.
Fundraising Efforts:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is conducting fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and signal amplifier.STERNENKO reports successful fundraising efforts resulting in the delivery of 300 drones to various Ukrainian units. These highlight ongoing volunteer support for the Ukrainian military. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO)
Support for Military Personnel and Families: Meeting held with families of servicemen from the 36th Separate Marine Brigade to discuss POW issues. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Tactical Medicine: No new information on tactical medicine in the latest messages.
Financial Support (Ukraine): No new information on financial support in the latest messages.
Adoption (Ukraine): No new information on adoption in the latest messages.
Support for Veterans (Russia):ASTRA reports a domestic incident in Sochi involving a veteran of the "SVO." This report highlights potential social issues and criminal activity among some returning veterans. (ASTRA)
Support for Families of Missing and Captured (Ukraine):Meeting held with families of servicemen from the 36th Separate Marine Brigade to discuss issues related to prisoners of war and missing personnel. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions. Claiming control over Torskoye on the Krasnolimansk direction. Utilizing drones extensively for various purposes, including reconnaissance near the Kharkiv-Donetsk border and attacks impacting civilian mobility in Horlivka. Engaging in domestic security operations involving military personnel (incidents in Sochi and Karelia). Commentary on "Electronik" actors becoming "Cossack generals" relates to force composition narratives.Lavrov stated no foreign military presence in Ukraine is acceptable.Russian military spokesperson states Russian summer offensive has begun. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], WarGonzo, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults. Engaged in air defense operations against Russian drones. Conducting fundraising efforts to equip units with drones. Meeting with families of Marines POWs highlights ongoing efforts related to force composition and welfare. Ukrainian MFA spokesperson responding to Russian statements reflects information operations efforts. Ukrainian military spokesperson states Russian summer offensive has begun, influencing tactical and strategic planning. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Poland: Stated it will not send troops to Ukraine, clarifying its military involvement stance. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The Russian claim of control over Torskoye on the Krasnolimansk direction, if verified, is a significant strategic development as it is described as a crucial transport hub and a potential stepping stone towards Lyman. The sharing of videos and images of the Russian flag in the settlement is a clear information operation to solidify this claim. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
The ongoing Russian drone activity, including reconnaissance near the Kharkiv-Donetsk border and widespread attacks impacting civilian life in Horlivka, highlights the continued strategic importance of drones in shaping the battlefield and impacting civilian populations. The fact that civilians in Horlivka are reportedly switching to bicycles due to drone threats underscores the pervasive nature of this threat. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], WarGonzo)
The continued delays and uncertainty surrounding the start time of the Istanbul negotiations, coupled with Putin's confirmed absence, reinforce the assessment that achieving a significant diplomatic breakthrough in these specific talks remains challenging. Zelenskyy and Erdogan proceeding with their meeting in Ankara suggests a separate, likely bilateral, diplomatic agenda is also being pursued. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Poland's clear statement that it will not send troops to Ukraine is strategically important for clarifying the stance of a key NATO member and potentially influencing discussions about broader international military involvement. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
The domestic incidents in Russia involving veterans and military personnel, such as the event in Sochi and the criminal case in Karelia, while not directly military operations, have strategic implications for internal stability, public perception of the military, and potentially recruitment and morale. These reports highlight potential challenges in reintegrating military personnel into civilian life and managing social issues within Russia. (ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
The BRICS discussions on building an alternative transport architecture bypassing the West are a significant long-term strategic development in international economic and geopolitical relations. This could have implications for global trade routes, supply chains, and potentially influence the economic leverage of the countries involved, indirectly impacting the broader geopolitical context. (Рыбарь)
The meeting with families of Ukrainian Marines POWs at the Coordination Headquarters underscores the strategic importance of addressing the issue of prisoners of war. This is a humanitarian imperative but also has implications for military morale, public support, and potential future prisoner exchanges, which can be used for intelligence gathering and diplomatic leverage. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
The Ukrainian MFA spokesperson's direct and dismissive response to Russian MFA statements regarding Zelenskyy reflects Ukraine's strategic approach to information operations and its efforts to counter Russian narratives in the diplomatic sphere. (РБК-Україна)
The Ukrainian military spokesperson stating that the Russian summer offensive has effectively begun is a significant strategic assessment that will likely inform Ukrainian defensive planning, resource allocation, and calls for international assistance. It also sets expectations for the intensity of the conflict in the coming months. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Lavrov's statement that no foreign military presence in Ukraine is acceptable is a clear restatement of a key Russian strategic red line and is likely aimed at deterring any potential direct military intervention by NATO or individual Western countries. (Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
