Sitrep 2025-05-14 07:57:37

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 14, 2025, 07:56 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, persistent aerial and drone activity, and complex diplomatic and internal developments. Recent reporting reinforces the picture of significant fighting, particularly on the Donetsk and Sumy fronts, with Russian sources claiming tactical gains and control over certain areas. The Ukrainian General Staff's previous report of a very high number of combat engagements across the front line yesterday is corroborated by the continued reporting of intense activity in these areas. Russian aerial and artillery activity, including repeated guided bomb launches, remains a significant threat, impacting both military and civilian targets. Ukraine is actively engaged in defensive operations, reporting successful repulsions of numerous attacks and targeted strikes against Russian assets. New information highlights the ongoing impact of the conflict on the civilian population in bordering Russian regions due to alleged Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks. Diplomatic efforts continue, with Brazil seeking to mediate talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in Turkey, while simultaneous reports indicate Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive, creating a disconnect between diplomatic signaling and observed military posture. Internal Russian matters, including legal proceedings, social policy discussions, military support efforts, and information operations, continue to be reported.

Significant new updates from the latest messages (past 30 minutes):

Strike on Russian Positions in Kharkiv Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share videos claiming to show a strike on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast, with ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifically mentioning a "bicycle ride of occupiers" and showing personnel on bicycles being targeted. This indicates ongoing combat and targeting of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, with a potentially unusual mode of transport being highlighted. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Recruitment for "African Corps": Два майора is disseminating information and contact details for recruitment into the Russian "African Corps," including details on specialties, general information, compensation for travel and relocation, and regional payments for signing a contract in St. Petersburg. This indicates a formal and active recruitment drive for a specific Russian military formation operating outside of Ukraine, highlighting Russia's broader strategic interests and force projection capabilities beyond the immediate conflict. (Два майора)
Macron's Statement on NATO and European Troops in Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Macron stated Ukraine will not join NATO but that European troops should be deployed on its territory as an alternative guarantee. This is a significant statement from a major European leader regarding the future security architecture of Ukraine and potential direct involvement of European forces. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Fundraising Appeal for Sick Child in Russia: Военкор Котенок is sharing a fundraising appeal for a sick child in Russia with multiple diagnoses, highlighting the social and humanitarian impact beyond the conflict itself. (Военкор Котенок)
School Class Named After Russian Hero of Russia in Yekaterinburg: WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after Vladimir Zhoga, commander of the "Sparta" battalion and Hero of Russia, who was killed in Volnovakha. His father, Artyom Zhoga, a presidential envoy, visited the school. This highlights Russian efforts to commemorate and promote individuals involved in the conflict and integrate this narrative into the education system, serving as a form of state-sponsored propaganda and national identity building. (WarGonzo)
Russian Claims of Extensive Ukrainian Losses and Destruction on the South Donetsk Direction: Воин DV reports comprehensive Russian strikes on Ukrainian objects in the depth of defense on the South Donetsk direction, claiming the destruction of a UAV command post, field ammunition depot, M198 towed howitzer, MaxxPro armored vehicle, pickup trucks, 11 "Baba Yaga" UAVs, a Ram-2X UAV, and 13 quadcopters. They also claim to have disrupted attempts at rotation and delivery of material means. Additionally, they report on the successful actions of other Russian army units in the area, claiming the destruction of vehicles, an M113 armored vehicle, a Dart UAV, four "Baba Yaga" hexacopters, and the destruction of two antennas of a ground UAV control station in the areas of Novoukrainka, Alekseevka, and Bogatyr. They further claim that units of the 35th Combined Arms Army in the areas of Gulyaipole and Zelyony Gai suppressed three attempts at rotation, destroying a vehicle and seven Ukrainian servicemen, three UAV launch points, two dugouts, and two temporary deployment points. They also claim to have disrupted engineering preparation of positions, shot down a "Baba Yaga" hexacopter with an aerial ramming, and destroyed two trench electronic warfare stations. Finally, they report that units of the 36th Combined Arms Army in night raids identified and struck four UAV command posts and two mortar positions, destroyed a pickup truck with an FPV drone, destroyed a temporary deployment point with an FPV drone near Fyodorivka, and shot down three "Baba Yaga" drones with aerial ramming. This report claims significant and varied losses and disruptions of Ukrainian forces and assets on the South Donetsk direction across multiple tactical areas. (Воин DV)
Moscow Shop Owner Fined for "Insulting the Feelings of Believers": Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined 100,000 rubles for publicly desecrating religious paraphernalia, specifically mentioning candles in the form of distorted icons and images of saints with inverted crosses. This highlights ongoing internal Russian legal and social issues, particularly concerning religious sensitivities and the authorities' response. (Север.Реалии)
EU Preliminarily Agrees on 17th Package of Sanctions Against Russia and Secondary Sanctions: ASTRA reports that the EU ambassadors have preliminarily agreed on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes measures against the "shadow fleet" used to circumvent oil export restrictions (149 tankers, 60 companies). Notably, the package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from China, UAE, Turkey, Serbia, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan, accused of helping Moscow bypass trade and energy embargoes. This is a significant development indicating continued and expanding international economic pressure on Russia, targeting key sectors and involving third countries. (ASTRA)
Rybar Analyzes US Army Recruitment Issues: Рыбарь presents an analysis critical of US Army recruitment practices, claiming they are manipulating data to meet recruitment quotas by effectively lowering standards for candidates and reclassifying those with low test scores. The report cites a Pentagon Inspector General report and suggests questions about the quality of recruits and the transparency of the recruitment system. This is a Russian military blogger's assessment of a perceived weakness in a potential adversary's military capabilities, likely aimed at highlighting limitations and potentially influencing narratives about the US military. (Рыбарь)
Claimed Replenishment of Ukrainian Prisoner of War Exchange Pool: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show the replenishment of the prisoner of war exchange pool with fighters from the "Vuhledar" territorial group of forces. This indicates the ongoing process of prisoner capture and the strategic importance of having personnel for future exchanges. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
EU Court Ruling on von der Leyen and COVID-19 Vaccine Contracts: ТАСС reports that the EU Court has found Ursula von der Leyen responsible for concealing information about contracts for the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines. This is a legal development within the EU concerning a prominent figure, potentially impacting her political standing. (ТАСС)
Kharkiv Operational Command Briefing: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a briefing on the situation in their operational zone, stating the operational situation remains difficult. They report Russian forces conducted an airstrike with 2 KABs, used 150 kamikaze drones, and carried out 661 shellings of Ukrainian positions over the past day. They report repelling four attacks in the areas of Vovchansk, Topoli, and Petrivka. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 73 Russian personnel (24 irreversible losses) and 145 units of weapons and military equipment, including 4 armored combat vehicles, 4 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 27 vehicles, 100 UAVs, 3 EW systems, and 6 units of special equipment, as well as 75 shelters. This provides specific and detailed statistics on Russian activity and claimed Ukrainian losses on the Kharkiv front over the past day. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Ukrainian Legal Changes Related to National Security and Anti-Russian Activity: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on recent changes to the Russian Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code that came into effect in April and May 2025. These changes strengthen criminal responsibility for crimes against the foundations of the constitutional order and state security (including discrediting the armed forces, calls for sanctions, and assisting in enforcing decisions of international organizations where Russia is not a party) and introduce criminal responsibility for failing to report crimes related to sabotage activities. They also expand the list of criminal cases that can be heard in the absence of the defendant if they are outside Russia or evading appearance, including crimes of minor or moderate severity related to "anti-Russian activity." This is a significant legal development within Russia, indicating a tightening of control and prosecution for activities deemed hostile to the state and its interests, particularly related to the conflict in Ukraine. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Igor Strelkov's Assessment of the Frontline Situation and Ukrainian Strategy: Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a letter from Igor Strelkov (Girkin) dated May 7, 2025, assessing the current operational situation. He thanks the recipient for the summary and agrees with the conclusions. He notes the Ukrainian tactical offensive on the borders of Kursk Oblast, particularly towards Tetkino, and views it as part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to expand the "arc of tension" and stretch Russian forces and reserves to defend "old regions." He argues that in the absence of large strategic reserves, loss of initiative, and Moscow's "stubborn unwillingness to face reality" and understand that there will be no "compromise peace," this Ukrainian strategy gives them significant advantages in the spring-summer campaign. He predicts that after stretching Russian forces and reserves, Ukraine will strike the main blows on strategic directions important to them, such as the Crimean/Kherson and possibly the Donetsk directions, where Russian forces are exhausted and have suffered heavy losses. He concludes by noting the increasing scale of Ukrainian missile, UAV, and USV attacks on "old territories." This provides a critical assessment of the Russian military strategy and the perceived effectiveness of the Ukrainian approach from a prominent Russian military figure. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович)
Bryansk Oblast Governor Highlights Participation in Urban Improvement Project: AV БогомаZ shares a post highlighting residents' participation in voting for urban improvement projects in Bryansk Oblast as part of a federal project initiated by President Putin. This is a report on a domestic initiative in a Russian border region, likely aimed at showcasing government support for the region and involving residents in local development, potentially as part of broader efforts to address the impact of the conflict on border areas. (AV БогомаZ)
Basurin Reports on EU Sanctions Package: Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, echoing previous reports and adding commentary from Russian sources claiming the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions and that the West lacks the wisdom to admit their failure. This highlights the ongoing information war surrounding sanctions and Russia's efforts to portray them as ineffective. (Басурин о главном)
Director of Kyiv Academic Young Theater Resigns: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Andriy Bilous has resigned as the director of the Kyiv Academic Young Theater by agreement of the parties, following accusations of harassment. This is an internal development in Ukraine concerning a cultural institution and allegations of misconduct, which has no direct impact on military operations but reflects internal social issues. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad Provides Chronicle of Russian Strikes 13-14 May: Colonelcassad provides a detailed list of claimed Russian strikes across various regions of Ukraine on May 13-14, including specific locations and types of munitions used (RSZO, Geran/Gerbera, Iskander-M, UMPS, Bandera, Lightning, OTRK). This provides a comprehensive, albeit unverified by Ukrainian sources within this update, overview of Russian long-range strike activity. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Propaganda Video Attacking Ukrainian Attitude Towards Russian Classics: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video portraying a Ukrainian woman destroying books by Russian classical authors and making negative comments, framing it as a manifestation of hatred and a lack of intellect. The video includes a Russian proverb translated into Ukrainian and then back into Russian, aiming to discredit the woman and the sentiment she represents. This is a clear instance of Russian information operation and propaganda, attempting to portray Ukrainians negatively and claim a shared cultural heritage being rejected. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Naryshkin Claims Opponents Plan State Change in Russia: ТАСС reports that Russian intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. This is a statement from a senior Russian official framing the actions of perceived adversaries as aimed at internal destabilization within Russia, likely intended for a domestic and international audience. (ТАСС)
Alex Parker Returns Shares Video on Armenian TV Discussion of WWII: Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip from Armenian television on May 9th where participants allegedly discussed that if Hitler had won, Armenians would be living in a greater Armenia and Turkey would be destroyed, blaming Stalingrad for preventing this. This highlights potentially controversial historical narratives and discussions in a country with close ties to Russia, possibly reflecting underlying geopolitical tensions and historical grievances. (Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Military Blogger Analyzes Possible End Scenarios for the Conflict: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis, citing a "secret chancellery" and a social study, on possible scenarios for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The analysis suggests a two-stage peace settlement, a key role for Russia and the US, the loss of Ukrainian subjectivity, and the potential for some European actors to prevent peace and create controlled chaos. The blogger agrees with the assessment that Ukraine has lost its subjectivity and that larger forces will decide the outcome based on the situation on the battlefield. This reflects a specific Russian military blogger's perspective on the conflict's trajectory and the geopolitical forces at play, likely aimed at promoting a narrative of Russian strength and Ukrainian weakness. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukrainian Soldier's Story Highlighting Bravery and Family: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares the story of Sergeant Major Oleksandr Tymoshenko, a grenade launcher assistant with 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade, a veteran since 2014 with multiple awards, including two "For Courage" orders. The story highlights his dedication to defending Ukraine, the importance of successfully completing missions and saving comrades' lives, and his pride in his son's achievements in wrestling, emphasizing his motivation to fight for a future where children can pursue their passions instead of fighting. This is a piece of Ukrainian military communication aimed at highlighting the bravery and dedication of soldiers, building morale, and emphasizing the human cost and motivation for the conflict. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Ukrainian General Staff Reports on Russian Air Attack (Night of May 14): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that Russia attacked with an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from occupied Crimea, 145 Shahed-type attack UAVs, and various types of decoy drones from directions including Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, Shatalovo, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian air defense (aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, EW units, and mobile fire groups) engaged the attack. As of 09:00, 80 Shahed-type (and other types of) attack UAVs were confirmed shot down in the east, north, west, and center of the country. 42 enemy decoy drones were lost without negative consequences. The attack affected Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Donetsk, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. This provides a detailed official Ukrainian report on the scale, composition, launch points, and outcomes of a major Russian air attack, highlighting the continued widespread nature of these attacks and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Launches of KABs on Donetsk Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast. This confirms ongoing Russian aerial pressure and use of guided munitions on the Donetsk front. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Russian Duma Committee Recommends Digital Ruble and Universal QR Code Bill: ТАСС reports that a State Duma committee has recommended adopting in the first reading a bill on the phased introduction of the digital ruble and the implementation of a universal QR code for payments. This is an internal Russian economic and regulatory development related to the financial system. (ТАСС)

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Confirmed Strikes in Kharkiv Oblast: The videos from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provide visual confirmation and details of ongoing strikes on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast, adding specific tactical information to the understanding of this front.
Formal Russian Recruitment for "African Corps": The details provided by Два майора about the recruitment process for the "African Corps" highlight a specific and active Russian effort to project influence and potentially military force beyond Ukraine, indicating a broader strategic scope.
Macron's Direct Statement on NATO and European Troops: Macron's reported statement is a significant and concrete proposal regarding the future security arrangements for Ukraine, suggesting a potential alternative to NATO membership and the possibility of direct European military presence.
Russian State-Sponsored Commemoration and Education: The report of a school class being named after a Russian military figure in Yekaterinburg demonstrates a formal effort to integrate the conflict narrative into the Russian education system, which is a strategic information operation aimed at shaping national identity and supporting the military.
Extensive Russian Claims of Success on South Donetsk Direction: Воин DV's detailed report of claimed Ukrainian losses and destruction on the South Donetsk direction provides a comprehensive Russian perspective on the fighting in this area, suggesting significant Russian tactical activity and claimed effectiveness, though this needs to be validated with Ukrainian reporting.
Details on EU Sanctions (17th Package and Secondary Sanctions): ASTRA's report provides specific details on the targets of the 17th EU sanctions package, including the "shadow fleet," and importantly, the expansion of secondary sanctions to include companies in several third countries. This signifies a notable increase in the scope and assertiveness of the EU's economic pressure on Russia.
Russian Military Blogger's Analysis of US Recruitment: Рыбарь's critical analysis of US Army recruitment adds a dimension to the understanding of how Russian military observers perceive the capabilities of potential adversaries.
Claim of Replenishment of Ukrainian POW Exchange Pool: The video from Оперативний ЗСУ highlights a practical aspect of the conflict and the ongoing process of prisoner exchange, which is a significant humanitarian and strategic consideration.
Detailed Ukrainian Report on Night Air Attack (May 14): The report from Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides crucial official data on the scale, types of munitions, launch points, and outcomes of a major Russian air attack, offering a clear picture of the intensity of Russian aerial activity and the performance of Ukrainian air defense during this specific event. The inclusion of decoy drones highlights Russian tactics to overwhelm air defenses.
Significant Russian Legal Changes Related to Security and Anti-Russian Activity: The details provided by Полиция Хабаровского края on recent legal changes in Russia underscore a tightening of internal control and increased legal measures against perceived opposition and activities deemed harmful to the state and its interests, with direct relevance to the context of the conflict.
Igor Strelkov's Critical Assessment: Igor Strelkov's letter provides a notable internal Russian military perspective, critical of the current Russian strategy and predicting Ukrainian actions based on the perceived limitations of Russian forces. This offers insight into potential dissent or alternative viewpoints within the Russian military-political landscape.
Russian Propaganda Attacking Ukrainian Culture: The video shared by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is a clear instance of Russian information operation aimed at demonizing Ukrainian culture and identity, highlighting the ongoing information war.
Naryshkin's Claim of Regime Change Plans: The statement from the head of Russian intelligence directly frames the actions of perceived opponents as aimed at internal destabilization, which is a significant statement regarding Russia's perception of the threats it faces.
Russian Military Blogger Analysis of Conflict Resolution Scenarios: The analysis shared by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА provides a specific Russian military blogger's framework for understanding potential end scenarios for the conflict, emphasizing geopolitical forces and the perceived loss of Ukrainian agency.
Ukrainian Soldier's Story: The story from ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 adds a human element to the conflict, highlighting the bravery, motivations, and sacrifices of Ukrainian soldiers, which is an important part of maintaining morale and public support.
Confirmation of Ongoing KAB Launches on Donetsk Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reporting continued KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast reinforces the understanding of ongoing heavy aerial bombardment in this key area.
Russian Domestic Economic/Regulatory Development: The report on the digital ruble and QR code bill is an internal Russian economic development, with no direct immediate impact on military operations, though it could have long-term financial implications.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Chasiv Yar, Polohy Direction, Krasnolimansky direction, Konstantinovka direction, Dnipropetrovsk direction (Kotlyarivka), Southern Donetsk direction (Bahatyr, Komar, Novoukrainka, Alekseevka), Kolodezi, Lipovoy, Novomikhailovka, Grekovka, Mirolyubovsky reservoir, Vodiane Druhe, Malinovka, Nova Poltavka, Vovchansk, Topoli, Petrivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Novohrodivka, Horlivka, Bakhmut districts, Bogatyr, Alekseevka, Kurakhovo direction, Selydove, Ukrainsk, Chelyuskinets, Kamianka, Ocheretyne, Avdiivka direction, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka, Dobropillya): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces from the Ivanovo Airborne Assault Division destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint and drone launch post near Chasiv Yar and also claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle and two heavy drones in the same area, suggesting continued intense fighting around Chasiv Yar and Russian claims of tactical successes. Воин DV claims Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping destroyed a group of the enemy on the Polohy direction, suggesting ongoing fighting in this area. Воин DV reports extensive claimed Ukrainian losses and destruction on the South Donetsk direction, including in the areas of Novoukrainka, Alekseevka, and Bogatyr, highlighting significant Russian tactical activity and claimed effectiveness in this area. "Два майора" reports on battles and Russian advances in the Krasnolimansky, Konstantinovka, Dnipropetrovsk, and Southern Donetsk directions. The report of a flag raised in Kotlyarivka and continued assaults in that area indicates active fighting. The report of Russian advances towards Komar signifies a potential shift or gain in the Southern Donetsk area. Russian forces maintain claims of tactical successes and advances. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in both defensive and offensive operations, utilizing drone capabilities effectively. Civilian casualties and damage from shelling are reported. Updated operational maps provide visual details on the front lines. Russian military media is using content from Donetsk Oblast to highlight the role of female military personnel. Colonelcassad shares "testimony" from a Russian serviceman alleging mistreatment by Ukrainian forces after capture, which could have implications for ongoing prisoner of war exchanges and humanitarian concerns. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian servicemember, who claims to have been serving in the Kharkiv border detachment. This information is being used for propaganda purposes. ISW reports advances by both sides in Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that the regional directorate of the FSB in the "DPR" stated that Ukrainian saboteurs were preparing provocations during the May holidays. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports repelling four attacks in the areas of Vovchansk, Topoli, and Petrivka, highlighting ongoing combat in these areas on the Kharkiv front (adjacent to Donetsk). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a Russian ballistic missile attack from occupied Crimea (adjacent to Southern Donetsk). The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists numerous locations in Donbas being targeted by various munitions. (ТАСС, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, WarGonzo, Сливочный каприз, Kotsnews, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Старше Эдды, Два майора, Kadyrov_95, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Север.Реалии, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Оперативний ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Полиция Хабаровского края, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, AV БогомаZ, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Topoli, Petrivka, Kupyansk direction): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share videos claiming to show a strike on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces conducted an airstrike with 2 KABs, used 150 kamikaze drones, and carried out 661 shellings of Ukrainian positions over the past day. They report repelling four attacks in the areas of Vovchansk, Topoli, and Petrivka. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 73 Russian personnel and 145 units of weapons and military equipment, including 100 UAVs, 3 EW systems, and 75 shelters. This provides specific and detailed statistics on Russian activity and claimed Ukrainian losses on the Kharkiv front over the past day. Russian military bloggers claim successes in eliminating Ukrainian artillery near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts. This indicates ongoing Russian air support and strike capabilities in proximity to the northern and northeastern front lines, including potentially the Kupyansk direction. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian servicemember, who claims to have been serving in the Kharkiv border detachment. This highlights activity related to the border region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian reconnaissance UAVs in northern Kharkiv Oblast, with means engaged for their destruction. TASS reports Russian claims of seizing fortified areas near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. TASS reports Russian claims of increased control zone in Kharkiv Oblast on a 30 km front line section. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists locations in Kharkiv Oblast being targeted by various munitions. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad, TASS)
Sumy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. TASS reports, citing "siloviki", that Ukrainian units are suffering colossal losses in the areas of Bilovody, Loknya, and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast, and that Ukrainian reserves are regularly destroyed. This introduces a Russian claim of significant Ukrainian casualties in this border region. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists locations in Sumy Oblast being targeted by various munitions. WarGonzo previously claimed Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tёtkino and are advancing in the areas of Loknya and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast. MoD Russia previously shared a video claiming MLRS strikes against Ukrainian infantry in Sumy region. Север.Реалии previously reported Russian strikes in Sumy Oblast, including an airstrike in Vorozhba causing destruction. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, TASS, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, MoD Russia, Север.Реалии)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Pavlovka, Novy Put, Bryansk, Oryol, Shatalovo, Millerovo): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports continued periodic clashes with Ukrainian formations in the Tetkino area of Kursk Oblast, noting Ukrainian forces are specifically targeting Tetkino and Novy Put and are using infantry groups attempting breakthroughs of border lines. The report also mentions Ukrainian sabotage groups on boats operating on the Seim River. This provides specific details on ongoing Ukrainian activity in this border region. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) notes the Ukrainian tactical offensive on the borders of Kursk Oblast, particularly towards Tetkino, and views it as part of a broader Ukrainian strategy. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia attacked with UAVs from directions including Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, Shatalovo, and Millerovo. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported Ukrainian forces repelled 12 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region yesterday, where Russian forces also conducted 18 air strikes with 34 guided aerial bombs and 264 artillery bombardments (including 11 MLRS). WarGonzo previously claimed Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tёtkino in Sumy Oblast (adjacent to Kursk). ASTRA previously reported a 5-year-old child was injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka on May 11th. Kotsnews previously shared a graphic video allegedly found on a captured Ukrainian phone from the Kursk Oblast. Два майора previously reported an alleged Ukrainian attempt to break through into Kursk Oblast near Novy Put' from Sumy Oblast. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Ukrainian General Staff, WarGonzo, ASTRA, Kotsnews, Два майора)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novopavlivka, Kamianske, Pavlohrad): TASS reports that Russian military expert Yan Gagin claims the liberation of Kotlyarivka in the DNR allows Russian forces to keep Novopavlivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast under full fire control. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has detained an alleged FSB agent in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Pavlohrad and the outskirts of Dnipropetrovsk being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv direction, Gulyaipole, Bilenke village, Lobkove, Кам'янське, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Чарівне, Novodarivka, Novoяkovlivka, Chervone, Zhovta Krucha, Novoandriyivka, Preobrazhenka): Воин DV claims Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping destroyed a group of the enemy on the Polohy direction, suggesting ongoing fighting in this area. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 454 strikes by Russian forces on 14 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 5 aviation strikes, 255 UAV attacks, 8 MLRS shellings, and 186 artillery shellings, resulting in damage to civilian property but no reported civilian casualties. This indicates a significant increase in the intensity and variety of Russian strikes on this front. Два майора is conducting a fundraising campaign for Russian tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on sports activities for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia. Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelling six enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster. MoD Russia and Воин DV report Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian assets and disrupted rotations near Gulyaipole. Mash на Донбассе reports a relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists locations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast being targeted by various munitions. (Воин DV, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Два майора, Сили оборони Півдня України, MoD Russia, Mash на Донбассе, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Black Sea: Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of nine Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over the Black Sea overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Naval Forces and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report no Russian enemy ships or Kalibr carriers in the Black Sea as of 06:00 on May 13th. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. (Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Ukrainian Naval Forces, TASS)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Belgorod Oblast overnight. WarGonzo adds details about casualties from alleged drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast (16 people injured). Басурин о главном, citing the regional governor, reports that 16 civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast in the past day due to alleged Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," including three ambulance workers and four "Orlan" fighters. This highlights ongoing Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory and military/civilian assets, and Russian efforts to counter these threats, alongside Russian information operations framing Ukrainian actions. MoD Russia showcases a mobile anti-UAV team operating on the Kharkiv direction. Север.Реалии previously reported Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, including a drone strike causing casualties and fires. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 previously highlighted the BTR-4E operating in the Kharkiv operational area. (Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Басурин о главном)
Zhytomyr Oblast (Berdychiv, Lyubar, Ozernoye): The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Zhytomyr Oblast (previously reported). Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Berdychiv, Lyubar, and Ozernoye being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Odesa Oblast (Chornomorsk, formerly Illichivsk): The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Odesa Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Illichivsk (Chornomorsk) being targeted by Iskander-M. Colonelcassad includes a photo claiming to show the results of this strike on the fishing port. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Kirovohrad Oblast: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Russian air attack affected Kirovohrad Oblast. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Kirovohrad being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Rivne Oblast (Dubno): Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists the outskirts of Dubno being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Cherkasy Oblast (Kaniv): Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Kaniv being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva): Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Bila Tserkva being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Ternopil Oblast (Kremenets): Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Kremenets being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Khmelnytskyi Oblast (Khmelnytskyi, Starokostyantyniv, Shepetivka): Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Khmelnytskyi, Starokostyantyniv, and Shepetivka being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Poltava Oblast: Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists Poltava Oblast being targeted by Geran/Gerbera drones. (Colonelcassad)
Moscow (Russia): Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined. ТАСС reports that a Moscow court has arrested Grigory Chekhonadskikh, a member of the Izmaylovskaya organized crime group. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС)
Yekaterinburg (Russia): WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia. (WarGonzo)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Два майора provides contact information for recruitment into the "African Corps" through a selection point in St. Petersburg, including details on regional payments for signing a contract there. (Два майора)
Libya: Два майора reports on Russian recruitment for the "African Corps," which is likely intended for operations in Africa, potentially including Libya. (Два майора)
Syria: Два майора reports on Russian recruitment for the "African Corps," which may include operations in Syria. (Два майора)
Armenia: Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip from Armenian television discussing historical narratives related to WWII. (Alex Parker Returns)
Transnistria: Maria Zakharova previously condemned the mention of Russia as a party to the Transnistrian conflict in Moldovan textbooks. (Maria Zakharova)
Moldova: Maria Zakharova previously condemned the mention of Russia as a party to the Transnistrian conflict in Moldovan history textbooks. (Maria Zakharova)
United Kingdom: Six Bulgarians were previously convicted and sentenced for spying for Russia in the UK. (UK)
Lithuania: International military exercises are taking place here, described by Russia as being directed against them. (Russia)
Hungary: Unconfirmed reports previously suggested Hungary is moving armored vehicles towards the border with Ukraine. (Unconfirmed)
Chechnya (Russia): Reports from a pro-Russian source previously alleged changes to the Russian coat of arms, removing religious symbols. (Pro-Russian Source)
Kerch Strait: Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues. (Ukrainian Naval Forces, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Mediterranean Sea: The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. (Ukrainian Navy)
Occupied Crimea: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia attacked with an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from occupied Crimea. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ongoing and significant. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share videos claiming to show a strike on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. Воин DV reports extensive claimed Ukrainian losses and destruction on the South Donetsk direction, including 11 "Baba Yaga" UAVs, a Ram-2X UAV, and 13 quadcopters destroyed, as well as four "Baba Yaga" hexacopters, a Dart UAV, and two antennas of a ground UAV control station destroyed in other areas. They also claim to have shot down a "Baba Yaga" hexacopter with an aerial ramming and destroyed two trench electronic warfare stations. Russian units are claimed to have destroyed a UAV command post and three UAV launch points. This report claims significant and varied losses and disruptions of Ukrainian UAVs and related infrastructure on the South Donetsk direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces used 150 kamikaze drones over the past day and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 100 UAVs and 3 EW systems. This indicates a high volume of Russian drone usage and claimed Ukrainian counter-UAV effectiveness on the Kharkiv front. Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of 12 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight – nine over the Black Sea and three over Belgorod Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia attacked with 145 Shahed-type attack UAVs and various types of decoy drones from directions including Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, Shatalovo, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. As of 09:00, 80 Shahed-type (and other types of) attack UAVs were confirmed shot down, and 42 enemy decoy drones were lost without negative consequences. This is a detailed official Ukrainian report on the scale, composition, launch points, and outcomes of a major Russian air attack, highlighting the continued widespread nature of these attacks and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. MoD Russia showcases a mobile anti-UAV team operating on the Kharkiv direction, claiming they continue to eliminate Ukrainian attack drones. Kotsnews showcases the work of the "Vega" special forces unit's drone operators on the Pokrovsk direction. Kadyrov_95 claims capture and repurposing of a Ukrainian drone by the "Yug-Akhmat" battalion. Север.Реалии previously reported Russian strikes in Kharkiv, Rivne, and Sumy Oblasts, including drone attacks. Два майора is fundraising for drone detectors for Russian tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kadyrov_95, Север.Реалии, Два майора)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces conducted an airstrike with 2 KABs over the past day. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported Russia used 138 guided bombs in 78 air strikes yesterday. Олег Синєгубов previously reported Russia used 7 KABs against Kharkiv Oblast yesterday. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Ukrainian General Staff, Олег Синєгубов)
Missile Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia attacked with an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from occupied Crimea. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists an Iskander-M strike on Illichivsk (Chornomorsk) in Odesa Oblast and an OTRK strike in Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported Russia used 1 missile yesterday and conducted over 5000 shellings, including 93 from MLRS. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a precise strike by BM-21 "Grad" MLRS and a 2A66 artillery piece on a Ukrainian rear area. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 8 MLRS shellings in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Ukrainian General Staff, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces conducted an airstrike with 2 KABs over the past day. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported Russia conducted 78 air strikes yesterday. MoD Russia showcases a mobile anti-UAV team operating on the Kharkiv direction, part of the "Sever" Group of Forces' 44th Army Corps. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Ukrainian General Staff, MoD Russia)
Naval Activity: Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of nine Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over the Black Sea overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. The Ukrainian Naval Forces and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report no Russian enemy ships or Kalibr carriers in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 13th. There are 4 Russian enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 Kalibr missile carrier with a total salvo of up to 8 missiles. Over the past day, 8 vessels transited the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea (5 towards Bosphorus) and 7 vessels towards the Azov Sea (1 from Bosphorus) in Russia's interests. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia continues to violate the International Convention for the Safety of Life on Sea (SOLAS) by disabling automatic identification systems. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. (Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Ukrainian Naval Forces, TASS)
Air Defense Activity: Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of 12 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight – nine over the Black Sea and three over Belgorod Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian air defense engaged a Russian air attack involving a ballistic missile, 145 Shahed-type attack UAVs, and decoy drones, confirming the downing of 80 attack UAVs and the loss of 42 decoy drones. This is a detailed official Ukrainian report on the performance of Ukrainian air defense against a major Russian air attack. MoD Russia showcases a mobile anti-UAV team operating on the Kharkiv direction, claiming they continue to eliminate Ukrainian attack drones. (Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 186 artillery shellings and 8 MLRS shellings in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces carried out 661 shellings of Ukrainian positions over the past day, including a reactive salvo system. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported Russia conducted over 5000 shellings, including 93 from MLRS, yesterday. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a precise strike by BM-21 "Grad" MLRS and a 2A66 artillery piece on a Ukrainian rear area. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlights Ukrainian infantry training with the RPG-7. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Ukrainian General Staff, Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Diplomatic discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations continue. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Macron stated Ukraine will not join NATO but that European troops should be deployed on its territory as an alternative guarantee. This is a significant statement regarding the future security architecture of Ukraine. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) argues that Moscow has a "stubborn unwillingness to face reality" and understand that there will be no "compromise peace." This reflects a critical Russian perspective on the prospects for peace talks. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis suggesting a two-stage peace settlement, a key role for Russia and the US, the loss of Ukrainian subjectivity, and the potential for some European actors to prevent peace. This reflects a specific Russian military blogger's framework for understanding potential end scenarios. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions. This links diplomatic outcomes to potential economic pressure. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness. This highlights the ongoing information war surrounding sanctions. РБК-Україна reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva wants to persuade Putin to negotiate with Zelenskyy in Turkey. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Brazil President Lula da Silva's intention to visit Moscow to persuade Putin. ТАСС reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva intends to return to Moscow after his China visit to discuss with Putin the requests from Ukrainian authorities regarding potential negotiations and delegation compositions in Istanbul on May 15th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Zelenskyy's interview with Liberation where he states he is waiting for a meeting with Putin in Istanbul and outlines potential outcomes (ceasefire, prisoner exchange). STERNENKO previously reported on Zelenskyy's conditions for an Istanbul meeting (ceasefire and exchange of all prisoners). Военкор Котенок suggests a temporary reduction in the intensity of drone attacks by Ukraine is part of a "peacekeeping" rhetoric, despite alleged extensive ceasefire violations. РБК-Україна, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials via the Financial Times, reports that Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive, which contradicts signals of readiness for peace talks. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing The Guardian, that after his visit to Turkey, Zelenskyy plans to visit Albania and potentially Rome, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
International Support for Ukraine: ASTRA reports that the EU ambassadors have preliminarily agreed on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes measures against the "shadow fleet" and expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from China, UAE, Turkey, Serbia, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan. This is a significant development indicating continued and expanding international economic pressure on Russia, targeting key sectors and involving third countries. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions. ТАСС reports that Bild newspaper writes that the EU may introduce sanctions against individual banks and restrict the supply of uranium from Russia. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ previously reported that EU ambassadors approved the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, as well as additional sanctions. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, highlighting the ongoing need for resources. (ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
EU-Ukraine Trade: РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, citing the Financial Times, previously reported that the EU intends to raise tariffs on imports from Ukraine starting June 6th. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Ukraine-Russia Relations: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Macron stated Ukraine will not join NATO but that European troops should be deployed on its territory as an alternative guarantee. This is a significant statement from a major European leader regarding the future security architecture of Ukraine and potential direct involvement of European forces. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) argues that Moscow has a "stubborn unwillingness to face reality" and understand that there will be no "compromise peace." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis suggesting a two-stage peace settlement, a key role for Russia and the US, and the loss of Ukrainian subjectivity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness. РБК-Україна reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva wants to persuade Putin to negotiate with Zelenskyy in Turkey. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Brazil President Lula da Silva's intention to visit Moscow to persuade Putin. ТАСС reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva intends to return to Moscow after his China visit to discuss with Putin the requests from Ukrainian authorities regarding potential negotiations and delegation compositions in Istanbul on May 15th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Zelenskyy's interview with Liberation where he states he is waiting for a meeting with Putin in Istanbul and outlines potential outcomes (ceasefire, prisoner exchange). STERNENKO previously reported on Zelenskyy's conditions for an Istanbul meeting (ceasefire and exchange of all prisoners). РБК-Україна, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials via the Financial Times, reports that Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive, which contradicts signals of readiness for peace talks. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video and description of the interrogation of a Ukrainian prisoner of war, likely as part of an information operation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has detained an alleged FSB agent in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a propaganda video attacking Ukrainian attitude towards Russian classics. ТАСС reports that Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Politics: Старше Эдды reports that President Putin has proposed making psychological support for veterans mandatory and highlights training opportunities for psychologists. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the results of the first Russian language exam for migrant children seeking school admission. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Russian State Duma has approved in the first reading a bill allowing for the arrest of property and accounts in Russia belonging to citizens who have moved abroad and committed offenses against Russia's interests. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a mural depicting a "SMO fighter" in Dzerzhinsk, Moscow Oblast, and the controversy surrounding it. Военкор Котенок is sharing a fundraising appeal for a sick child. This highlights a social issue within Russia. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia. This indicates integration of the conflict narrative into the education system. Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined for "insulting the feelings of believers." This highlights ongoing internal legal and social issues. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on recent changes to the Russian Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code related to security and "anti-Russian activity." This is a significant legal development. AV БогомаZ shares a post highlighting residents' participation in urban improvement projects in Bryansk Oblast. This is a report on a domestic initiative. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a propaganda video attacking Ukrainian attitude towards Russian classics. ТАСС reports that Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip from Armenian television discussing historical narratives related to WWII. This highlights potentially controversial historical narratives in a country with ties to Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis on possible scenarios for resolving the conflict, including internal Russian perspectives. ТАСС reports that a State Duma committee has recommended adopting a bill on the phased introduction of the digital ruble and the implementation of a universal QR code for payments. This is an internal economic/regulatory development. ТАСС previously reported on various internal legal and political discussions. (Старше Эдды, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Север.Реалии, Полиция Хабаровского края, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukraine-Turkey Relations: РБК-Україна reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva wants to persuade Putin to negotiate with Zelenskyy in Turkey. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Brazil President Lula da Silva's intention to visit Moscow to persuade Putin to go to Turkey. ТАСС reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva intends to discuss potential negotiations and delegation compositions in Istanbul on May 15th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Zelenskyy's interview with Liberation where he states he is waiting for a meeting with Putin in Istanbul. STERNENKO previously reported on Zelenskyy's conditions for an Istanbul meeting. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO)
Ukraine-Albania Relations: Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing The Guardian, that after his visit to Turkey, Zelenskyy plans to visit Albania on Friday. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukraine-Vatican Relations: Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing The Guardian, that Zelenskyy may travel to Rome on Sunday to attend a mass with the newly elected Pope Leo XIV. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-US Relations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reiterates the statement by the head of the US Northern Command, General Gregory Guillot, that the Pentagon is seriously considering the possibility of a war between the US and Russia in case of further escalation in Ukraine. Рыбарь presents an analysis critical of US Army recruitment practices. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis suggesting a key role for the US in resolving the conflict. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russia-Brazil Relations: РБК-Україна reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva wants to persuade Putin to negotiate with Zelenskyy in Turkey and will visit Moscow to discuss this. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Brazil President Lula da Silva's intention to visit Moscow to persuade Putin to go to Turkey. ТАСС reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva intends to return to Moscow after his China visit to discuss with Putin the requests from Ukrainian authorities regarding potential negotiations and delegation compositions in Istanbul on May 15th. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Russia-China Relations: ТАСС reports that Brazil President Lula da Silva intends to return to Moscow after his China visit, indicating a previous or ongoing visit to China. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны notes the development of military cooperation between Russia and China, according to US General Guillot. АSTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from China accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA)
Russia-North Korea Relations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны notes the development of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, according to US General Guillot. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
EU-Russia Relations: ASTRA reports that the EU ambassadors have preliminarily agreed on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, including measures against the "shadow fleet" and the expansion of secondary sanctions to include companies from China, UAE, Turkey, Serbia, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan. This is a significant development indicating continued and expanding international economic pressure on Russia. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions. ТАСС reports that Bild newspaper writes that the EU may introduce sanctions against individual banks and restrict the supply of uranium from Russia. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ previously reported that EU ambassadors approved the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, as well as additional sanctions. ТАСС reports that the EU Court has found Ursula von der Leyen responsible for concealing information about contracts for the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines. (ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Russia-UAE Relations: ASTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from the UAE accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ASTRA)
Russia-Turkey Relations: ASTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from Turkey accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ASTRA)
Russia-Serbia Relations: ASTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from Serbia accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ASTRA)
Russia-Vietnam Relations: ASTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from Vietnam accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ASTRA)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: ASTRA reports that the 17th EU sanctions package expands the geography of secondary sanctions to include companies from Uzbekistan accused of helping Moscow bypass restrictions. (ASTRA)
Internal Ukrainian Developments: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Andriy Bilous has resigned as the director of the Kyiv Academic Young Theater by agreement of the parties. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Military Personnel Support and Rehabilitation: Старше Эдды reports that President Putin has proposed making psychological support for veterans mandatory and highlights training opportunities for psychologists. This indicates a recognition of the psychological toll of the conflict on Russian military personnel and a strategic effort to address it. Военкор Котенок is sharing a fundraising appeal for a sick child. While not directly military, it highlights social welfare needs within Russia. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia. This indicates efforts to honor military personnel and integrate them into the education system. Fighterbomber shares a photo of gloves drying, a mundane detail that can provide insight into daily life and conditions for military personnel. Два майора is conducting a fundraising campaign for Russian tank crews, highlighting the need for equipment. Два майора is disseminating information and contact details for recruitment into the Russian "African Corps." (Старше Эдды, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Fighterbomber, Два майора)
Internal Security and Border Attacks: Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the destruction of three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Belgorod Oblast overnight. WarGonzo adds details about casualties from alleged drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast (16 people injured). Басурин о главном, citing the regional governor, reports that 16 civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast in the past day due to alleged Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," including three ambulance workers and four "Orlan" fighters. This highlights the impact of the conflict on the civilian population in bordering Russian regions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Russian State Duma has approved in the first reading a bill allowing for the arrest of property and accounts in Russia belonging to citizens who have moved abroad and committed offenses against Russia's interests. This is a legal development targeting Russian citizens living abroad and perceived as acting against the state's interests. Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined for "insulting the feelings of believers." This highlights ongoing internal legal and social issues. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on recent changes to the Russian Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code related to security and "anti-Russian activity," including increased responsibility for crimes against the state and failure to report sabotage. This is a significant legal development indicating a tightening of internal security measures. AV БогомаZ shares a post highlighting residents' participation in urban improvement projects in Bryansk Oblast. This is a report on a domestic initiative in a border region. ТАСС reports that Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. This is a statement from a senior security official. ТАСС reports that a Moscow court has arrested Grigory Chekhonadskikh, a member of the Izmaylovskaya organized crime group, on charges of contract killing. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports that a criminal case regarding the illegal circulation of specially valuable aquatic biological resources (sturgeon) has been sent to court. (Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Север.Реалии, Полиция Хабаровского края, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС)
Civilian Casualties: WarGonzo reports 16 people injured in Belgorod Oblast due to alleged drone attacks. Басурин о главном reports that 16 civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast in the past day due to alleged Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," including three ambulance workers and four "Orlan" fighters. This highlights the impact of the conflict on the civilian population in bordering Russian regions. (WarGonzo, Басурин о главном)
Propaganda and Information Operations: Военкор Котенок suggests a temporary reduction in the intensity of drone attacks by Ukraine is part of a "peacekeeping" rhetoric, despite alleged extensive ceasefire violations. This is a clear information operation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the results of the first Russian language exam for migrant children seeking school admission, framing it in terms of adaptation and assimilation. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a mural depicting a "SMO fighter" generated by AI, which was used for recruitment by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, highlighting issues with propaganda. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video and description of the interrogation of a Ukrainian prisoner of war, attempting to portray him as changing his views, likely as part of an information operation. Kadyrov_95 claims capture and repurposing of a Ukrainian drone by the "Yug-Akhmat" battalion, highlighting claimed Russian success. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia. This indicates integration of the conflict narrative into the education system. Рыбарь presents an analysis critical of US Army recruitment practices, likely aimed at highlighting weaknesses of a perceived adversary. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a propaganda video attacking Ukrainian attitude towards Russian classics. This is a clear instance of Russian information operation. ТАСС reports that Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. This statement likely serves a domestic purpose. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip from Armenian television discussing potentially controversial historical narratives related to WWII. This highlights information operations within countries with ties to Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis on possible scenarios for resolving the conflict, promoting a narrative of Russian strength and Ukrainian weakness. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness. This highlights the ongoing information war surrounding sanctions. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. This is a commemorative event and propaganda effort. (Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Kadyrov_95, WarGonzo, Рыбарь, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном)
Legal Developments: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Russian State Duma has approved in the first reading a bill allowing for the arrest of property and accounts in Russia belonging to citizens who have moved abroad and committed offenses against Russia's interests. Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on recent changes to the Russian Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code related to security and "anti-Russian activity," including increased responsibility for crimes against the state and failure to report sabotage. This is a significant legal development. ТАСС reports that a Moscow court has arrested Grigory Chekhonadskikh, a member of the Izmaylovskaya organized crime group. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports that a criminal case regarding the illegal circulation of specially valuable aquatic biological resources (sturgeon) has been sent to court. ТАСС reports that a State Duma committee has recommended adopting in the first reading a bill on the phased introduction of the digital ruble and the implementation of a universal QR code for payments. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Север.Реалии, Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС)
Immigration and Social Policy: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the results of the first Russian language exam for migrant children seeking school admission. This continues the discussion on internal Russian social and immigration policy. Военкор Котенок is sharing a fundraising appeal for a sick child. This highlights a social issue within Russia. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Военкор Котенок)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Personnel Support and Rehabilitation (Russia): Старше Эдды reports that President Putin has proposed making psychological support for veterans mandatory and highlights training opportunities for psychologists. This indicates a recognition of the psychological toll of the conflict on Russian military personnel and a strategic effort to address it, potentially to maintain force readiness and reintegrate veterans into society. Два майора is conducting a fundraising campaign for Russian tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction, seeking funds for equipment. This highlights the continued reliance on volunteer and public support for certain equipment needs within the Russian military. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia. This indicates efforts to honor military personnel and integrate them into the education system. (Старше Эдды, Два майора, WarGonzo)
Civilian Impact (Russia): WarGonzo reports 16 people injured in Belgorod Oblast due to alleged drone attacks. Басурин о главном, citing the regional governor, reports that 16 civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast in the past day due to alleged Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," including three ambulance workers and four "Orlan" fighters. This highlights the impact of the conflict on the civilian population in bordering Russian regions. Военкор Котенок is sharing a fundraising appeal for a sick child in Russia. This highlights a social and humanitarian issue within Russia. AV БогомаZ shares a post highlighting residents' participation in urban improvement projects in Bryansk Oblast. This is a report on a domestic initiative in a border region, potentially aimed at addressing the impact of the conflict on civilian life. (WarGonzo, Басурин о главном, Военкор Котенок, AV БогомаZ)
Military Personnel Support and Rehabilitation (Ukraine): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on sports activities organized for veterans and their families in Zaporizhzhia, including archery, as part of rehabilitation efforts after injuries. This highlights Ukrainian efforts to support and reintegrate veterans. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlights Ukrainian infantry training with the RPG-7, which is part of preparing personnel. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports on the VII All-Ukrainian Forum of Military Writers held in Lviv, which supports military personnel through creative outlets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS promotes a legal aid service offering free consultations to military personnel and their families. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, highlighting the ongoing need for resources for units. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show the replenishment of the prisoner of war exchange pool. This indicates the ongoing process of prisoner capture and the strategic importance of having personnel for future exchanges. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares the story of Sergeant Major Oleksandr Tymoshenko, highlighting the bravery and motivations of Ukrainian soldiers. This is aimed at boosting morale and public support. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Civilian Infrastructure (Ukraine): Олександр Вілкул reports on two infrastructure projects underway in Kryvyi Rih's Saksahanskyi district – improving the sewerage system and laying a new collector. These projects aim to improve living conditions for residents. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports damage to civilian property from Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. This highlights the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Fundraising for Military Needs (Ukraine): РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. (РБК-Україна)
Prisoner of War Exchange: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show the replenishment of the prisoner of war exchange pool. This indicates the ongoing process of prisoner capture and the strategic importance of having personnel for future exchanges. (Оперативний ЗСУ)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults on multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kotlyarivka, Bohater, Stepanivka, Konstantinovka direction, Krasnoarmeysky direction) and Sumy Oblast (Loknya, Vodolagi). Employing extensive aerial and artillery assets, including repeated guided bomb launches on Sumy Oblast and MLRS and artillery for deep strikes on Ukrainian rear areas. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones. Claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements (claimed liberation of Kotlyarivka). Claiming to repel Ukrainian attacks (near Tёtkino in Sumy, previously 12 in Kursk region). Facing Ukrainian drone attacks in border regions and over the Black Sea and claiming to destroy them (12 overnight). Experiencing civilian casualties in border regions due to alleged Ukrainian attacks. Increasing arms production significantly (previously reported tanks). Developing a project to collect DNA from servicemembers. Deploying Su-34 crews for strikes (previously reported). Experiencing destruction of an aircraft-type UAV over Bryansk Oblast (previously reported). Claiming capture and repurposing of Ukrainian drones. Facing potential issues with military personnel psychological well-being (Putin's proposal). Relying on volunteer support for certain equipment (fundraising for tank crews). Showcasing mobile anti-UAV teams and drone operations. Potentially facing personnel losses (Ukrainian claims). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share videos claiming to show a strike on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast, with ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifically mentioning targeting personnel on bicycles. This highlights ongoing combat in Kharkiv and potentially unusual Russian tactical movements. Два майора is disseminating information and contact details for recruitment into the Russian "African Corps," indicating a formal and active recruitment drive for a specific Russian military formation operating outside of Ukraine. Воин DV reports extensive claimed Ukrainian losses and destruction on the South Donetsk direction, including numerous UAVs and armored vehicles destroyed, and attempts at rotation and delivery of material means disrupted. This report claims significant and varied Russian tactical successes. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Russian forces conducted an airstrike with 2 KABs, used 150 kamikaze drones, and carried out 661 shellings of Ukrainian positions over the past day on the Kharkiv front. This provides specific details on the intensity and type of Russian activity in this area. Рыбарь presents an analysis critical of US Army recruitment practices, likely aimed at highlighting weaknesses of a perceived adversary's military. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports continued periodic clashes with Ukrainian formations in the Tetkino area of Kursk Oblast, noting Ukrainian forces are specifically targeting Tetkino and Novy Put and are using infantry groups attempting breakthroughs of border lines. The report also mentions Ukrainian sabotage groups on boats operating on the Seim River. This provides specific details on ongoing Ukrainian activity in this border region and Russian defensive posture. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) notes the Ukrainian tactical offensive on the borders of Kursk Oblast and views it as part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to stretch Russian forces. This offers a critical Russian perspective on the situation. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia attacked with an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from occupied Crimea, 145 Shahed-type attack UAVs, and various types of decoy drones from multiple directions. This provides a detailed official Ukrainian report on a major Russian air attack. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia, commander of the "Sparta" battalion. This indicates commemoration of a specific Russian military unit and its leader. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes lists numerous locations being targeted by various munitions. (Ukrainian General Staff, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС, WarGonzo, Сливочный каприз, Kotsnews, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Старше Эдды, Два майора, Kadyrov_95, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian ground assaults on multiple directions, particularly Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman (previously reported high numbers of repelled attacks). Utilizing air defense to counter Russian drone attacks and ballistic missiles (claimed downing of 80 Shahed and 42 dummy drones in a major air attack). Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions and over the Black Sea (as claimed by Russia, with 12 drones destroyed overnight). Utilizing artillery, aviation, and MLRS. Conducting counter-reconnaissance efforts (previously reported against Russian drones). Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling, drone, and guided bomb attacks. Commemorating fallen defenders. Seeking international military aid (previously reported French Caesar howitzers). Addressing issues related to captured personnel and providing legal assistance to military personnel and recruits. Recruiting individuals with diverse backgrounds into drone units (previously reported). Utilizing armored personnel carriers (BTR-4E) for fire support (previously highlighted). Training infantry with RPG-7s. Holding forums for military writers. Facing alleged Russian intelligence gathering efforts (SBU detention of alleged FSB agent). Claiming Russian officer casualties. Having drones captured and repurposed by Russian forces. Facing ongoing need for equipment replacement and fundraising for units. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share videos claiming to show a strike on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. This highlights ongoing combat in Kharkiv. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports repelling four attacks in the areas of Vovchansk, Topoli, and Petrivka and claims to have destroyed 73 Russian personnel and 145 units of weapons and military equipment, including 100 UAVs and 3 EW systems, and 75 shelters on the Kharkiv front over the past day. This provides specific and detailed statistics on Ukrainian defensive actions and claimed Russian losses in this area. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show the replenishment of the prisoner of war exchange pool. This indicates the ongoing process of prisoner capture. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares the story of Sergeant Major Oleksandr Tymoshenko, highlighting the bravery and motivations of Ukrainian soldiers. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports continued periodic clashes with Ukrainian formations in the Tetkino area of Kursk Oblast, noting Ukrainian forces are specifically targeting Tetkino and Novy Put and are using infantry groups attempting breakthroughs of border lines. The report also mentions Ukrainian sabotage groups on boats operating on the Seim River. This provides specific details on ongoing Ukrainian activity in this border region. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) notes the Ukrainian tactical offensive on the borders of Kursk Oblast and views it as part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to stretch Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian air defense engaged a Russian air attack involving a ballistic missile, 145 Shahed-type attack UAVs, and decoy drones, confirming the downing of 80 attack UAVs and the loss of 42 decoy drones. This is a detailed official Ukrainian report on the performance of Ukrainian air defense against a major Russian air attack. (Ukrainian General Staff, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, Олег Синєгубов, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Kadyrov_95, РБК-Україна, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Стрелков Игорь Иванович)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly the extremely high number of engagements reported on the Pokrovsk direction and ongoing fighting in Sumy Oblast, indicates that both sides remain committed to achieving military objectives through force. Russia's claims of advances and liberation of settlements, such as the claimed strategic advantage from controlling Kotlyarivka to keep Novopavlivka under fire control, suggest they are maintaining offensive pressure and seeking to gain strategically important ground. Ukraine's reports of repelling numerous assaults indicate strong defensive resistance. The Ukrainian intelligence assessment that Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive, despite diplomatic signaling, is a critical strategic assessment that necessitates careful planning and resource allocation for defense. Igor Strelkov (Girkin)'s assessment from the Russian side, that Ukraine's tactical offensive on the borders of Kursk Oblast is part of a broader strategy to stretch Russian forces and reserves, suggests a recognition within certain Russian military circles of the strategic challenges they face.
The scale and persistence of Russian aerial and artillery activity, including repeated guided bomb launches on Sumy Oblast, MLRS and artillery strikes on Ukrainian rear areas, and a major air attack involving 145 attack drones and a ballistic missile, highlight Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and inflict casualties. Countering these threats, particularly guided bombs and mass drone attacks, remains a critical strategic challenge for Ukraine. Ukraine's efforts to counter Russian drones are evidenced by the claimed downing of 80 UAVs in the recent attack and the showcasing of mobile anti-UAV teams. The reported civilian casualties in bordering Russian regions due to alleged Ukrainian attacks highlight the impact of the conflict extending beyond the immediate front lines and the potential for escalation in these areas.
The diplomatic efforts, including Brazil's initiative to mediate talks in Turkey and Moscow, underscore the continued international dimension of the conflict and the ongoing search for a path towards negotiation. However, the apparent disconnect between these diplomatic overtures and the Ukrainian intelligence assessment of Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive suggests that a breakthrough in negotiations is not immediately likely. Macron's reported statement regarding Ukraine not joining NATO but potentially hosting European troops is a significant proposal for Ukraine's future security architecture. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's analysis suggesting a two-stage peace settlement and the loss of Ukrainian subjectivity reflects a specific Russian military blogger's perspective on the conflict's trajectory. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, linking diplomatic outcomes to potential economic pressure. Zelenskyy's planned visits to Albania and Rome after Turkey indicate continued diplomatic engagement with European partners and other international actors.
The EU's preliminary agreement on the 17th package of sanctions, including measures against the "shadow fleet" and the expansion of secondary sanctions to include companies from China, UAE, Turkey, Serbia, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan, is a significant strategic effort by the EU to pressure Russia through economic and political means, targeting key sectors and involving third countries. This aims to weaken Russia's capacity to continue military operations and to signal strong condemnation of its broader behavior. Басурин о главном reports on the EU agreeing on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with Russian commentary claiming their ineffectiveness, highlighting the ongoing information war surrounding sanctions.
The statement by the head of the US Northern Command, reiterated by Russian sources, that the Pentagon is seriously considering the possibility of a war between the US and Russia in case of further escalation in Ukraine is a highly significant statement with profound strategic implications. It indicates a heightened level of concern within the US military about potential direct conflict and could influence strategic planning and risk assessments for all parties involved. Рыбарь's analysis critical of US Army recruitment practices, if intended for a Russian military audience, could be aimed at influencing their assessment of the capabilities of a potential adversary. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis suggesting a key role for the US in resolving the conflict, reflecting a Russian perspective on the geopolitical forces at play.
Putin's proposal for mandatory psychological support for veterans indicates a recognition of the human cost of the conflict on Russian military personnel and a strategic effort to address it, potentially to maintain force readiness and reintegrate veterans into society. The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers highlight the continued reliance on volunteer support for certain equipment needs within the Russian military. Два майора is disseminating information and contact details for recruitment into the Russian "African Corps," indicating a formal and active recruitment drive for a specific Russian military formation operating outside of Ukraine, highlighting Russia's broader strategic interests and force projection capabilities beyond the immediate conflict. WarGonzo reports that a school class in Yekaterinburg has been named after a Russian Hero of Russia, commander of the "Sparta" battalion, indicating integration of the conflict narrative into the education system as a form of state-sponsored propaganda.
The SBU's detention of an alleged FSB agent in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlights the ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Ukraine to prevent Russian infiltration and intelligence gathering, which is crucial for maintaining security and operational effectiveness.
Ukraine's efforts to support and rehabilitate veterans through sports activities and provide legal assistance to military personnel and recruits are strategically important for maintaining morale, retaining skilled personnel, and ensuring the well-being of those who have served or are serving. The fundraising efforts by Ukrainian units highlight the ongoing need for resources and equipment replacement, which requires sustained international support. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show the replenishment of the prisoner of war exchange pool, indicating the ongoing process of prisoner capture and the strategic importance of having personnel for future exchanges. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares the story of Sergeant Major Oleksandr Tymoshenko, highlighting the bravery and motivations of Ukrainian soldiers, which is aimed at boosting morale and public support.
The report on infrastructure projects in Kryvyi Rih highlights efforts to maintain and improve civilian infrastructure, which is important for the well-being of the population and can contribute to overall stability and resilience. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports damage to civilian property from Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, highlighting the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure.
The Russian State Duma's approval of the bill allowing for the arrest of property of citizens who have moved abroad and committed offenses against Russia's interests is a legal development with potential implications for Russian citizens living abroad and is related to internal Russian security and control. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on recent significant changes to the Russian Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code related to security and "anti-Russian activity," including increased responsibility for crimes against the state and failure to report sabotage. This is a significant legal development indicating a tightening of internal security measures. Север.Реалии reports that the owner of a Moscow shop called "Witch's Path" was fined for "insulting the feelings of believers," highlighting ongoing internal legal and social issues, particularly concerning religious sensitivities and the authorities' response.
The Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing mobile anti-UAV teams and Russian military bloggers highlighting drone operations and the capture/repurposing of Ukrainian drones underscore the critical role of drone warfare in the conflict and both sides' efforts to adapt their tactics and develop countermeasures. Ukrainian training with RPG-7s highlights the continued importance of anti-armor capabilities in the face of Russian armored assaults. Воин DV's report claiming extensive Ukrainian losses and destruction of numerous UAVs on the South Donetsk direction highlights the intensity of drone combat in that area. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports that Russian forces used 150 kamikaze drones over the past day and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 100 UAVs and 3 EW systems on the Kharkiv front, providing specific data on the scale of drone activity and counter-UAV efforts in this area. The Ukrainian General Staff reports on a major Russian air attack involving 145 attack drones and decoy drones, and the downing of 80 attack UAVs, providing detailed official information on the scale and outcomes of a significant aerial engagement.
The VII All-Ukrainian Forum of Military Writers highlights the strategic use of cultural events and personal narratives to document the conflict, support military personnel, and build national identity and morale. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares the story of Sergeant Major Oleksandr Tymoshenko, which is aimed at boosting morale and public support.
The controversy over the AI-generated military mural in Russia highlights potential missteps and challenges in Russian propaganda and information operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a propaganda video attacking Ukrainian attitude towards Russian classics, which is a clear instance of Russian information operation. ТАСС reports that Naryshkin stated that Russia sees its geopolitical opponents harboring dreams and plans for a change of state power in Russia. This statement likely serves a domestic propaganda purpose. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip from Armenian television discussing potentially controversial historical narratives related to WWII, highlighting information operations within countries with ties to Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares an analysis on possible scenarios for resolving the conflict, promoting a narrative of Russian strength and Ukrainian weakness.
The report on the phased introduction of the digital ruble and universal QR code in Russia is an internal Russian economic and regulatory development. While not directly impacting military operations, it signifies efforts to modernize the financial system, which could have long-term economic implications.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Operational Workflow: (Continued based on new information)

Data from the new messages has been integrated into the existing analysis workflow. This includes:

Data Collection and Preprocessing: The videos claiming to show strikes in Kharkiv, the recruitment information for the "African Corps," Macron's statement, the fundraising appeal for a sick child, the report on the school class named after a Russian Hero, the extensive Russian claims of success on the South Donetsk direction, the report on the Moscow shop owner being fined, the details on the EU sanctions package and secondary sanctions, Rybar's analysis of US recruitment, the claim of replenishment of the Ukrainian POW exchange pool, the EU court ruling on von der Leyen, the Kharkiv Operational Command briefing, the details on Russian legal changes related to security and anti-Russian activity, Igor Strelkov's assessment, the Bryansk Oblast Governor's post, Basurin's report on EU sanctions, the report on the Kyiv theater director's resignation, Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes, the Russian propaganda video attacking Ukrainian culture, Naryshkin's statement, the video from Armenian television, the Russian military blogger's analysis of conflict resolution scenarios, the Ukrainian soldier's story, the Ukrainian General Staff's report on the night air attack, the report on ongoing KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast, and the report on the digital ruble and QR code bill have been added to the relevant datasets.
Analysis and Modeling: The claimed strikes in Kharkiv are being analyzed for their tactical significance and potential impact on Russian positions in that area. The "African Corps" recruitment drive is being analyzed for its implications for Russia's broader strategic posture and force projection capabilities. Macron's statement is being analyzed for its potential impact on the diplomatic landscape and the future security arrangements for Ukraine. The fundraising appeal for a sick child is noted as a humanitarian issue in Russia. The naming of a school class after a Russian Hero is being analyzed as a form of state-sponsored propaganda and integration of the conflict narrative into the education system. The extensive Russian claims of success on the South Donetsk direction are being analyzed and compared with Ukrainian reporting (when available) to assess the actual tactical situation in that area. The report on the Moscow shop owner being fined is being analyzed as an instance of internal Russian legal and social issues. The details on the EU sanctions package and the expansion of secondary sanctions are being analyzed for their potential economic impact on Russia and the involvement of third countries in circumventing sanctions. Rybar's analysis of US recruitment is being analyzed for its potential to inform Russian perceptions of a potential adversary's capabilities. The claim of replenishment of the Ukrainian POW exchange pool is being analyzed as a humanitarian and strategic factor. The EU court ruling on von der Leyen is noted as an internal EU political development. The Kharkiv Operational Command briefing is providing specific data on Russian activity and claimed Ukrainian effectiveness in that area. The details on Russian legal changes are being analyzed for their implications for internal Russian security and control. Igor Strelkov's assessment is being analyzed as a critical internal Russian military perspective. Basurin's report on EU sanctions with Russian commentary is being analyzed as part of the information war. The report on the Kyiv theater director's resignation is noted as an internal Ukrainian development. Colonelcassad's chronicle of Russian strikes is providing a comprehensive overview of Russian long-range strike activity for further analysis and pattern identification. The Russian propaganda video is being analyzed as an instance of information operation. Naryshkin's statement is being analyzed for its implications for Russia's perception of external threats. The video from Armenian television is being analyzed for potential information operations in countries with ties to Russia. The Russian military blogger's analysis of conflict resolution scenarios is being analyzed for insights into potential Russian perspectives on the conflict's trajectory. The Ukrainian soldier's story is being incorporated as a human element for morale and public support analysis. The Ukrainian General Staff's report on the night air attack is providing crucial official data for assessing the scale and effectiveness of both the Russian attack and Ukrainian air defense. The report on ongoing KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast is reinforcing the assessment of aerial pressure in that area. The report on the digital ruble and QR code bill is being noted as an internal economic/regulatory development.
Reporting and Visualization: Updated maps and reports now include the claimed strategic importance of Kotlyarivka and the areas of claimed Russian advances on the South Donetsk direction (once validated). Reports on military personnel support and rehabilitation efforts in both countries are being included. The section on aerial and naval activity is being updated with the latest claims regarding drone activity, KAB launches, ballistic missile usage, and air defense performance, including the detailed outcomes of the recent major air attack. The diplomatic and political developments section is being updated with information on Brazil's mediation efforts, Zelenskyy's planned visits, potential new EU sanctions and secondary sanctions, Macron's statement on NATO and European troops, and other relevant diplomatic exchanges and statements. The internal Russian issues section is being updated with information on legal developments, immigration policy discussions, propaganda issues, internal security measures, and reports on social welfare and commemoration. The support and rehabilitation section is being updated with details on veteran support programs, fundraising efforts, and the ongoing prisoner exchange process. The force composition and tactics section is being updated with information on specific training activities, claimed unit successes and losses, Russian recruitment for the "African Corps," and the use of specific types of munitions and tactics based on the recent reports. The strategic considerations section is being updated to reflect the implications of these new developments, including the disconnect between diplomatic signaling and military posture, the heightened risk of direct great power conflict, the ongoing challenges of drone warfare and countering overwhelming Russian firepower, the expanding economic pressure on Russia through sanctions, the evolving perspectives on conflict resolution, and the importance of information operations.
Feedback Loop: The updated analysis and reports are disseminated to human commanders for feedback, which is incorporated to refine future assessments and recommendations.

This continuous process ensures that the analysis remains agile and responsive to the dynamic operational environment, providing commanders with the most accurate and relevant information to support their decision-making while adhering to ethical standards and minimizing collateral damage.

Situation Report