Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 13, 2025, 20:56 UTC)
Updated Situation
The current operational picture is characterized by persistent and intense ground combat in eastern Ukraine, primarily in Donetsk Oblast, alongside sustained Russian aerial activity across various regions. Diplomatic discussions surrounding potential negotiations in Istanbul continue, though significant differences in preconditions for a ceasefire remain. A positive development for Ukraine's logistics is the temporary lifting of the Polish border blockade. Internal Russian issues, including casualty reports, social concerns, and information control, are ongoing. Ukraine is focused on enhancing its defense capabilities through international cooperation and addressing logistical needs.
Significant updates from the latest messages include:
Unblocking of Polish Border Crossing:РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the Polish carriers' strike at the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" checkpoint has ended as of 23:00 Kyiv time, and the crossing is operating normally in both directions. This is a significant logistical improvement for Ukraine. STERNENKO also confirms the unblocking.РБК-Україна provides further confirmation from the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
Russian Claims of Liberated Territory and Military Actions:MoD Russia claims the liberation of Mirolyubovka (Donetsk People's Republic) by units of the Tsentr Group of Forces.MoD Russia also reports that Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces struck workshops of Bogdana self-propelled artillery systems as well as temporary deployment areas of AFU units and foreign mercenaries. They also showcase footage of various Russian military units in action, including Msta-S self-propelled howitzer crews, Grad MLRS crews, UAV operators, EOD specialists, and repairmen, as well as snipers training in Kherson region. This highlights Russian claims of military success and their ongoing operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian forces attacked the center of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with a drone, causing a fire at the central market. They state there are no reported casualties.
Russian Information Operations:MoD Russia's "Top News Today" post, featuring claims of liberated territory, strikes on Ukrainian assets and foreign mercenaries, and showcasing Russian military units in action, is a clear information operation aimed at portraying Russian military effectiveness and successes.Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman who claims he was forcibly mobilized despite health issues and that "Azov" personnel visited their positions, framing the Ukrainian military negatively.НгП раZVедка shares a video allegedly showing a Ukrainian woman destroying Russian classical literature, framing it as "brain degradation" and criticizing Ukrainians and those who aligned with them.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a kitten with a VDV watermark and a message about night duty, combining informal content with a military context, likely for morale or propaganda.«Зона СВО» shares a post with aggressive and provocative language, including a threat of "boomerang," which is a form of information operation.Colonelcassad shares commentary criticizing the leadership of the Vakhtangov Theater for allegedly supporting a "rusophobic" director and maintaining his productions, highlighting internal cultural and political tensions.Alex Parker Returns discusses a foundation recognized as undesirable in Russia that defends the rights of indigenous minorities, linking it to perceived government suppression of dissent and sharing images of individuals with flags representing different regions of Russia, highlighting potential internal nationalistic or separatist sentiments.Alex Parker Returns shares a video with a positive framing related to Donald Trump.Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot of a social media post expressing concern about a lack of donations for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs.Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives.Colonelcassad comments on the Russian MFA's statement regarding the MH17 investigation, reiterating denial of Russian involvement and blaming Ukraine.ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery, which, while a domestic issue, is reported by a source that also covers the conflict and can be seen in the broader context of internal Russian issues.
Ukrainian Military Cooperation and Procurement:Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukroboronprom has signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with German Rheinmetall to establish production facilities in Ukraine for artillery ammunition and a Memorandum with Spanish Escribano for partnership in repairing and servicing Spanish combat modules, joint development of new models, and licensed production in Ukraine. This indicates concrete steps towards enhancing Ukraine's domestic defense production capabilities through international partnerships.
Russian Internal Issues:ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery, indicating potential issues with corruption within local government.Alex Parker Returns discusses a foundation recognized as undesirable in Russia that defends the rights of indigenous minorities and shares images related to this, highlighting potential internal nationalistic or separatist sentiments and government efforts to suppress them.Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman as part of an information operation.НгП раZVедка shares a video that is part of Russian information operations.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo with a VDV watermark and message, likely for morale.Colonelcassad discusses internal cultural and political tensions related to a theater performance.«Зона СВО» shares a post with aggressive and provocative language.Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot related to fundraising for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs through donations.Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives.ASTRA reports that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed Russian irrecoverable losses in Ukraine are around 1 million, stating this figure can be proven through open sources, and also criticized the Russian system of power as being based on fear. This is a highly significant and contested claim regarding Russian casualties and provides a critical perspective on the internal political situation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Defense Minister regarding Poland not sending troops to Ukraine, relevant to the broader context of international involvement.РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that frozen Russian assets in Europe cannot be confiscated due to lack of legal frameworks, but income from these assets is being used to support Ukraine.
Ukrainian Military Morale and Resilience:ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos of Ukrainian soldiers with captions emphasizing their dignity, being tired but unbroken, and highlighting their affiliation with the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in Kharkiv. This is likely aimed at boosting morale and showcasing the resilience of Ukrainian forces.
Russian Aerial and Drone Activity:Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs in the northeastern and eastern parts of Chernihiv Oblast, west of Sumy, and in the western part of Kharkiv Oblast, with various courses.Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs in the southern part of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava/Kharkiv Oblast.Николаевский Ванёк reports on the general movement of "mopeds" (likely drones), with specific numbers and directions in the areas of Akhtyrka, Sumy, Pryluky, Nizhyn, and Shostka. This indicates ongoing and widespread Russian drone activity. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Ukrainian forces attacked the center of Tokmak with a drone.MoD Russia reports the use of attack drones by Russian forces.
Financial Support for Ukraine:РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that income from frozen Russian assets in Europe is being used to support Ukraine.
Diplomatic Stances:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, clarifying Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Mirolyubovka, Tokmak): Continues to be a focus of intense ground combat. MoD Russia claims the liberation of Mirolyubovka.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the center of Tokmak. ASTRA reports that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed significant Russian losses in Ukraine, potentially reflecting intense fighting in this and other eastern regions.
Kharkiv Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of enemy strike UAVs and reports UAVs in the western part.ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos of Ukrainian soldiers from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in Kharkiv. This indicates ongoing activity and defense efforts in this region. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs in the northeastern, eastern, and southern parts, with some heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Sumy Oblast (Akhtyrka):Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs west of Sumy, heading south.Николаевский Ванёк reports on the movement of drones in the areas of Akhtyrka, Sumy, and Shostka.Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava/Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates ongoing Russian drone activity in this border region.
Kyiv Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs from the southern part of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. This indicates a potential aerial threat to the capital region.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Tokmak):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the center of Tokmak.MoD Russia reports that Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces struck workshops of Bogdana self-propelled artillery systems as well as temporary deployment areas of AFU units and foreign mercenaries.MoD Russia also reports on snipers training in Kherson region as part of the Dnepr Group of Forces, which operates in the southern direction, including Zaporizhzhia. This indicates ongoing activity and targeting in the southern direction.
Poltava Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
Novocherkassk (Russia):ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the local administration for bribery. This is an internal Russian event.
Perm (Russia):Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case, highlighting internal security concerns.
Kherson Oblast:MoD Russia reports on snipers training in Kherson region as part of the Dnepr Group of Forces. This indicates ongoing military training or presence in this occupied region.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Continued extensive drone usage by both sides. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with various courses, including towards Kyiv and Poltava/Kharkiv.Николаевский Ванёк provides specific numbers and locations of "mopeds" (drones) in central and northern Ukraine.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the center of Tokmak.MoD Russia reports the use of attack drones by Russian forces and showcases footage of UAV operators. This highlights the continued prevalence and strategic importance of drones in the conflict.
Aviation Activity:MoD Russia reports that Operational-Tactical Aviation of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes.Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that bomber aviation of the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army of the "Vostok" group of forces struck positions in the areas of Novoukrainka and Shevchenko. This indicates continued Russian air support for ground operations.
Missile Activity:MoD Russia reports that Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval activity is reported in the latest messages.
Air Defense Activity: The reports of Ukrainian forces tracking and reporting on the movement of Russian UAVs imply ongoing air defense vigilance and potential interception efforts, although no successful interceptions are reported in these specific messages.
Artillery and MLRS Activity:MoD Russia reports that Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces conducted strikes and showcases footage of Msta-S self-propelled howitzer crews and Grad MLRS crews. This indicates continued reliance on artillery by Russian forces.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: While not directly mentioned in the latest messages, the context of ongoing conflict and the reported lifting of the Polish border blockade occur amidst a backdrop of discussions regarding potential negotiations in Turkey. РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that frozen Russian assets cannot be confiscated due to lack of legal frameworks, but income is used to support Ukraine.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense regarding Poland not sending troops to Ukraine.
International Support for Ukraine:Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Ukroboronprom's Memorandums of Cooperation with German Rheinmetall and Spanish Escribano for defense production and maintenance in Ukraine. This signifies concrete international support for enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities. РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that income from frozen Russian assets in Europe is being used to support Ukraine, confirming a source of financial support.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense regarding Poland not sending troops to Ukraine but emphasizing Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub, highlighting a specific form of support.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: No direct diplomatic exchanges between Russia and Ukraine are reported in these messages, but the continued conflict and competing narratives suggest ongoing tension.
Internal Ukrainian Politics:ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos of Ukrainian soldiers from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, likely for morale and public support.
Internal Russian Issues:ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery.Alex Parker Returns discusses a foundation recognized as undesirable in Russia that defends the rights of indigenous minorities and shares related images, highlighting potential internal dissent or nationalistic/separatist sentiments.Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman as part of an information operation.НгП раZVедка shares a video that is part of Russian information operations.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo with a VDV watermark and message, likely for morale.Colonelcassad discusses internal cultural and political tensions related to a theater performance.«Зона СВО» shares a post with aggressive and provocative language.Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot related to fundraising for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs through donations.Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives.ASTRA reports that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed Russian irrecoverable losses in Ukraine are around 1 million and criticized the Russian system of power as being based on fear.
Poland-Ukraine Relations:РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report the unblocking of the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" border crossing. This is a positive development for bilateral relations and logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense regarding Poland not sending troops to Ukraine but emphasizing Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub.
Information Operations:Russian sources, including MoD Russia, continue extensive information operations, claiming territorial gains, highlighting strikes on Ukrainian assets and foreign mercenaries, showcasing Russian military units, and portraying internal Ukrainian issues and alleged cultural degradation negatively.Ukrainian sources also engage in information operations, showcasing the resilience of their forces and highlighting international support.
France's Stance:РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that frozen Russian assets in Europe cannot be confiscated due to lack of legal frameworks, but income is being used to support Ukraine. He also reportedly said France has given "everything it could" and cannot increase supplies.
UK-EU Defense Agreement:Воин DV reports that the UK and the European Union are preparing a joint defense and security agreement to counter the "threat from Russia," which could allow the UK to participate in EU military structures and peacekeeping missions. This indicates potential strengthening of defense cooperation between the UK and the EU.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security:ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery, indicating potential issues with corruption.Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives.
Political Dynamics:ASTRA reports the detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery, relevant to local governance.Alex Parker Returns discusses a foundation recognized as undesirable in Russia that defends the rights of indigenous minorities and shares related images, highlighting potential internal nationalistic or separatist sentiments and government efforts to suppress them.ASTRA reports that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed Russian irrecoverable losses in Ukraine are around 1 million and criticized the Russian system of power as being based on fear, which is a significant point of internal political contention.
Military Performance and Capabilities:MoD Russia claims the liberation of Mirolyubovka, reports on strikes against Ukrainian assets and foreign mercenaries, and showcases footage of various Russian military units in action. This is intended to demonstrate Russian military effectiveness.
Casualty Reports:ASTRA reports that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed Russian irrecoverable losses in Ukraine are around 1 million, stating this figure can be proven through open sources. This is a highly significant and contested claim regarding the scale of Russian losses.
Economic Issues:РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that frozen Russian assets in Europe cannot be confiscated due to lack of legal frameworks, but income is being used to support Ukraine, indirectly acknowledging the impact of sanctions.
Social Issues:Alex Parker Returns discusses a foundation recognized as undesirable in Russia that defends the rights of indigenous minorities and shares related images, highlighting potential internal nationalistic or separatist sentiments and government efforts to suppress them.Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives.Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman as part of an information operation.НгП раZVедка shares a video that is part of Russian information operations.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo with a VDV watermark and message, likely for morale.Colonelcassad discusses internal cultural and political tensions related to a theater performance.«Зона СВО» shares a post with aggressive and provocative language.Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot related to fundraising for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs through donations.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine):Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Ukroboronprom's Memorandums of Cooperation with German Rheinmetall and Spanish Escribano for defense production and maintenance in Ukraine. This is a direct form of international support for Ukraine's military-industrial complex. РБК-Україна reports that Macron stated that income from frozen Russian assets in Europe is being used to support Ukraine, confirming a source of financial support.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense regarding Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub for Ukraine.
Military Support (Russia):Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot of a social media post expressing concern about a lack of donations for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs through donations. This suggests some reliance on public support for military-related medical needs. MoD Russia showcases footage of repairmen in action, indicating efforts to maintain and repair military equipment.
Support for Civilians:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the center of Tokmak, but states there are no reported casualties. This is a Russian claim about the impact on civilians. Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged murder case in Perm, highlighting internal security concerns and questioning official narratives, which impacts civilian safety and trust.
Internal Support (Russia):Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman as part of an information operation, potentially aimed at influencing public opinion and support for the conflict.НгП раZVедка shares a video that is part of Russian information operations.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo with a VDV watermark and message, likely for morale among troops and potentially the public.Colonelcassad discusses internal cultural and political tensions related to a theater performance, which can impact public sentiment.«Зона СВО» shares a post with aggressive and provocative language.Alex Parker Returns shares a screenshot related to fundraising for medicine, potentially highlighting challenges in supporting medical needs through donations.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Engaging in intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, claiming the liberation of Mirolyubovka. Utilizing Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops, and Artillery for strikes. Showcasing footage of Msta-S self-propelled howitzer crews, Grad MLRS crews, UAV operators, EOD specialists, and repairmen, as well as snipers. Conducting ongoing drone operations across various regions. MoD Russia's claims and showcased footage provide insights into the types of units and equipment actively engaged.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Ukrainian forces using a drone to attack Tokmak.
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults. Utilizing drones for various purposes. Experiencing Russian aerial and shelling activity. Working to enhance domestic defense production capabilities through international partnerships (Memorandums with Rheinmetall and Escribano). Engaging in counterintelligence efforts (previously reported detention of FSB agents). Showcasing the resilience and presence of their forces (photos from Kharkiv). Potentially conducting drone attacks in occupied territories (attack on Tokmak reported by Russian sources). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos of Ukrainian soldiers from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in Kharkiv, highlighting the presence and role of Territorial Defense units.
Foreign Involvement:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense clarifying Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub, not involving direct troop deployment.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The unblocking of the Polish border crossing at "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" is a positive strategic development for Ukraine, improving logistical flow and potentially easing pressure on supply lines for both military and civilian needs.
MoD Russia's claims of liberating Mirolyubovka, if verified, represent a tactical gain for Russia in Donetsk Oblast and contribute to their strategic objective of securing the Donbas region. The showcased footage of Russian military units and strikes serves a strategic purpose of demonstrating capability and projecting confidence.
The ongoing and widespread Russian drone activity across multiple regions, including the reported movement towards Kyiv, highlights a persistent strategic effort to degrade Ukrainian defenses, infrastructure, and potentially target key areas. This necessitates sustained and effective Ukrainian air defense.
Ukraine's signing of Memorandums of Cooperation with German Rheinmetall and Spanish Escribano for defense production and maintenance is a significant strategic move to bolster its long-term defense capabilities and reduce reliance on external aid for certain types of munitions and equipment. This aims to enhance Ukraine's self-sufficiency and sustain its defense effort.
The conflicting narratives and information operations from both sides underscore the continued strategic importance of controlling information and shaping perceptions of the conflict, both domestically and internationally.
ASTRA reporting that Pavel Gubarev, a former "people's governor of Donbas," has claimed Russian irrecoverable losses in Ukraine are around 1 million, if substantiated, would have profound strategic implications for Russia's manpower, long-term sustainability of the conflict, and internal stability. This claim challenges the official Russian narrative on casualties.
The detention of the head of the Novocherkassk administration for bribery, while a domestic issue, points to potential governance challenges and corruption within Russia, which could have indirect strategic implications for efficiency and public trust.
Alex Parker Returns' discussion and imagery related to a foundation defending the rights of indigenous minorities and alleged government suppression highlights potential internal nationalistic or separatist sentiments within Russia, which could be a strategic vulnerability.
France's stated inability to increase military aid to Ukraine, as reported by РБК-Україна, indicates potential limitations on the future scope of French support and could influence strategic planning regarding resource availability.
The UK and EU preparing a joint defense and security agreement to counter the "threat from Russia," as reported by Воин DV, is strategically significant as it indicates a potential strengthening of collective defense capabilities among Western partners and a unified stance against perceived Russian aggression.
РБК-Україна reporting that Macron stated that income from frozen Russian assets in Europe is being used to support Ukraine confirms a source of financial support with strategic implications for Ukraine's ability to fund its defense.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS sharing a statement from the Polish Minister of National Defense regarding Poland not sending troops to Ukraine but emphasizing Poland's role as a logistical and infrastructural hub clarifies a key aspect of international support with strategic relevance for the flow of aid.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
