Sitrep 2025-05-12 21:26:22

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 21:26 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where intense ground combat persists. Russian forces continue to claim tactical successes, including the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and advances in other areas, specifically in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Aerial and drone activity remains a significant factor across multiple fronts, with reports of guided aerial bomb launches and widespread drone use by both sides. Diplomatic efforts to establish a ceasefire continue to face significant challenges, with explicit rejections of a truce emanating from Russian sources. The escalating conflict between India and Pakistan remains a critical external development to monitor. Ukraine continues to highlight the need for international support and military aid, with recent approvals of substantial aid packages from the EU and the US. Significant personnel changes within Ukraine's defense leadership are noted. New information suggests Ukraine is deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. Reports indicate fighting and armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya, leading to the suspension of airport operations. Allegations of Russian espionage and sabotage activities in the UK are reported, leading to convictions. Increased tensions and military exercises near Lithuania are noted, with a focus on countering Russia. There are unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the border with Ukraine.

New significant updates from the latest messages (past hour):

Russian MoD Claims Liberation of Kotlyarovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense officially claims that units of the "Tsentr" Group of Forces have liberated the settlement of Kotlyarovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. This is a significant claim of territorial control.
Russian MoD Showcases Military Operations: The Russian Ministry of Defense has released footage showcasing the actions of various military units, including Iskander-M missile systems, Giatsint-B howitzers, Grad and Uragan MLRS, and attack FPV drone teams. This is likely intended for propaganda purposes to demonstrate Russian military capabilities and activity.
Russia Rejects Moldovan Textbook Content: Maria Zakharova, Russian MFA Spokesperson, has strongly condemned the mention of Russia as a party to the Transnistrian conflict in new Moldovan history textbooks, calling it "baseness, lies, and distortion of history." This indicates continued diplomatic tension between Russia and Moldova.
Zelenskyy Excludes Havryliuk from Stavka: President Zelenskyy has signed a decree to exclude Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk from the composition of the Stavka of the Commander-in-Chief. Havryliuk was previously the Deputy Minister of Defense. This confirms a significant personnel change at a high level within Ukraine's defense leadership structure.
Updated Operational Maps of Donetsk Oblast: Colonelcassad has shared updated maps showing the operational situation on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions as of May 12, 2025. These maps delineate front lines, control of populated areas, and the presence of fortifications, providing visual information on the tactical situation.
Adam Kadyrov Awarded Another Medal: Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal on the 25th anniversary of the "Akhmat" special purpose unit. This is a recurring event highlighting his growing prominence and association with security structures in Chechnya.
Claims of Ukrainian Aviation Bomb Strikes in Russia: WarGonzo has shared a video and commentary claiming that Ukrainian forces are using foreign-made aviation bombs to strike Russian territory. The video allegedly shows a bridge strike in Kursk Oblast. This report, if accurate, would indicate a potential escalation in the types of munitions used by Ukraine against targets within Russia.
Reports of HIMARS Strikes and FPV Drone Use in Kursk: WarGonzo also reports alleged HIMARS strikes (two) in the Tetkino area of Kursk Oblast and ongoing shelling and FPV drone drops. This suggests continued Ukrainian military activity and targeting in this Russian border region.
Claims of a Polish Mercenary in Kursk Oblast: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны has shared content claiming to show a deceased Polish mercenary in Kursk Oblast. This report, if confirmed, would support claims of foreign fighter involvement in the conflict on the Ukrainian side in this border region.
Convictions for Espionage for Russia in the UK: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that six Bulgarians have been sentenced to a total of over 50 years in prison in the UK for spying for Russia. Their activities included surveillance of journalists, dissidents, and Ukrainian military personnel, and plans for kidnappings and assassinations, mentioning the GRU. This highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities in the UK.
Ukrainian Forces Deploying New Anti-Personnel Mines in Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad reports that Ukrainian forces have started using new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. These mines are described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and are allegedly supplied by Western partners. This indicates a new tactical approach by Ukraine in this region.
Armed Clashes in Tripoli, Libya: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report armed clashes and fighting in Tripoli, Libya, with reports of gunfire, armored vehicles on the streets, and the МВД recommending residents stay indoors. Mitiga International Airport is suspended, and planes are being evacuated. Unconfirmed reports suggest the escalation followed the killing of militia commander Abdul Ghani al-Kikli. TASS also reports the suspension of Mitiga International Airport. Alex Parker Returns comments on the situation, speculating on the start of significant events. This indicates a new area of instability and conflict in the region.
Military Exercises in Lithuania Directed Against Russia: TASS reports that Deputy Head of the Russian MFA Alexander Grushko stated that the international military exercises "Thunder Fortress 2025" in Lithuania are directed against Russia, and Moscow will take measures to nullify NATO's efforts. This indicates increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region.
Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk, Romanivka, Novoolekivka): DeepState reports that the enemy has advanced in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka, and the map has been updated. This indicates continued Russian tactical gains in these specific areas.
Unconfirmed Reports of Hungarian Armor on Ukrainian Border: Alex Parker Returns claims that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban has started moving armored vehicles to the Hungarian-Ukrainian border, suggesting a potential "second front." This report is currently unconfirmed and requires verification.
Russian Response to Reported Hungarian Armor Movement: Alex Parker Returns shares a photo and text stating " Пока так. За язык никто не тянул," implying a reaction to the reported movement of Hungarian armor and potentially linking it to previous statements. This suggests a Russian narrative is being formed around this unconfirmed report.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast: Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian forces, including the "Tsentr" Group of Forces, claim the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka. Russian military bloggers continue to claim advances and territorial control in various areas, including near Otradnoye and Bogatyr, and are pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in both defensive and offensive operations, utilizing drone capabilities effectively. Civilian casualties and damage from shelling are reported. Updated operational maps provide visual details on the front lines, control of populated areas, and fortifications on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ongoing conflict with reported Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counterattacks. Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes, HIMARS strikes, and FPV drone use in the Tetkino area are reported. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast.
Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on this direction, described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and allegedly supplied by Western partners.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by Russian drone attacks. Air alert issued due to threat of attack drones.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued intense fighting with Russian assaults and Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups at a personnel accumulation point using SDB bombs.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards the border to gain fire control over a logistical hub. Russian sources claim to be destroying NATO equipment in the oblast while advancing.
Transnistria (Moldova): Mentioned in the context of Russian diplomatic tension with Moldova over historical textbook content.
Moldova: Experiencing diplomatic tension with Russia over historical textbook content regarding the Transnistrian conflict.
Tripoli (Libya): Experiencing armed clashes and fighting, with reports of gunfire and armored vehicles. Mitiga International Airport operations are suspended. This indicates a new area of instability and conflict.
Lithuania: International military exercises "Thunder Fortress 2025" are taking place, described by Russia as being directed against them. This indicates increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region.
Hungarian-Ukrainian Border: Unconfirmed reports suggest Hungary is moving armored vehicles towards the border. This report requires verification but indicates potential for increased tension.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Pervasive on both sides. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of Russian assault groups using SDB bombs (delivered via aircraft). Russian MoD footage includes footage of attack FPV drone teams in action. Russian drones are being found with messages explicitly rejecting a truce. Air alert issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to threat of attack drones. Reports of FPV drone drops in the Tetkino area of Kursk.
Aviation Activity: Russian forces are conducting aviation strikes with guided aerial bombs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern and northeastern directions. Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs to strike Russian territory (Kursk Oblast). Russian sources claim to be destroying NATO equipment in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with aviation while advancing.
Missile Activity: Russia is utilizing missile strikes. Russian MoD footage includes footage of Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system crews in action. Reports of alleged HIMARS strikes (two) in the Tetkino area of Kursk. The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups in Zaporizhzhia using SDB bombs. The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles (likely for HIMARS) to Ukraine.
Naval Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. A Kalibr carrier is reported in the Mediterranean. Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues. The situation in Tripoli, Libya, has led to the evacuation of civilian planes from Mitiga International Airport.
Air Defense Activity: Ukraine reports shooting down a significant number of Russian UAVs and destroying Russian air defense systems. Russian sources claim their air defense systems are hitting Ukrainian UAVs and downing guided aerial bombs. The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
Artillery Activity: Heavy artillery shelling continues on both sides. Russian MoD footage includes footage of Giatsint-B towed howitzer crews, Grad and Uragan MLRS crews in action. Reports of ongoing shelling in the Tetkino area of Kursk.
Anti-Personnel Mines: Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and allegedly supplied by Western partners.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations continue amidst conflicting signals. While diplomatic efforts persist, messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" directly contradict diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire.
International Support for Ukraine: The EU intends to allocate €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, in addition to previous investments in the defense industry. The US has approved Germany's transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles (likely for HIMARS) to Ukraine.
Russia-Moldova Relations: Maria Zakharova has strongly condemned the mention of Russia as a party to the Transnistrian conflict in new Moldovan history textbooks. This indicates continued diplomatic tension.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations continues, with differing conditions from each side. Messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" directly contradict diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy has excluded Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk from the composition of the Stavka of the Commander-in-Chief. This signifies a personnel change at a high level within Ukraine's defense leadership structure.
Internal Russian Issues: Reports of internal security concerns continue. Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast could be used to support narratives about foreign involvement against Russia.
Netherlands and Australia Seek ICAO Negotiations with Russia on MH17: The Netherlands and Australia are seeking negotiations with Russia through the ICAO regarding the downing of MH17 in 2014. This is a diplomatic and legal development related to past events but with ongoing implications for international relations and accountability.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation remains a critical external development to monitor.
Russia-UK Relations: Six Bulgarians have been convicted and sentenced for spying for Russia in the UK, highlighting alleged Russian intelligence activities and straining relations.
Russia-Lithuania Relations: Military exercises in Lithuania described by Russia as being directed against them indicate increased tension and military posturing in the Baltic region.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the Ukrainian border could indicate increased tension or a shift in Hungary's posture towards the conflict. This requires verification.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Alleged involvement of Russian special services in a fire in Warsaw as accused by Poland (reported previously). Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast could be used to support narratives about foreign involvement against Russia. The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim advances and the liberation of Kotlyarovka. Russian artillery and missile systems are actively engaged. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines. Russian sources are promoting the development of new domestic electric motors for drones. Russian MoD footage showcases various military units in action, likely for propaganda purposes. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka.
Information Operations: Russia continues to promote narratives about the conflict and internal issues. The Russian MoD is releasing footage of military operations. Maria Zakharova's condemnation of Moldovan textbooks serves a specific narrative about Russia's role in regional conflicts. Adam Kadyrov's receipt of another medal is likely used to promote his status and the security structures he is associated with. Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs on Russian territory and the presence of a Polish mercenary in Kursk Oblast are likely used to portray Ukraine and its allies as aggressors. Messages on Russian drones stating "There will be no truce!" are a direct form of information warfare and propaganda. Updated operational maps shared by Colonelcassad visually represent the conflict from a pro-Russian perspective, highlighting claimed Russian gains. Russia is framing military exercises in Lithuania as being directed against them and is stating they will take countermeasures. Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the unconfirmed Hungarian armor movement near the Ukrainian border, including a subsequent photo and text, suggests a Russian narrative is being formed around this event.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Adam Kadyrov was awarded a medal on the 25th anniversary of OMON "Akhmat-Grozny."
Political Dynamics: Adam Kadyrov being awarded a medal is a political act highlighting his status.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support for Ukraine: The EU intends to allocate €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition. The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and a high volume of drones. Claiming the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment and inflicting losses. Employing tactical aviation. Utilizing Iskander-M missile systems, Giatsint-B howitzers, Grad and Uragan MLRS. Russian MoD footage showcases these units in action. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Russian forces claim advances and territorial control, including the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and recent advances in Toretsk, Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Messages on Russian drones explicitly reject a truce. Updated operational maps provide visual details on Russian positions and claimed control. Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, which Russian forces will need to counter.
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses. Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents (reported previously). Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces (reported previously). Utilizing maritime drones (reported previously). Seeking international support and military aid. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling. Claiming destruction of Russian equipment, including air defense systems and boats (reported previously). Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups in Zaporizhzhia using SDB bombs. Ukraine has excluded Lieutenant General Havryliuk from the Stavka. Ukraine is receiving significant military aid from the EU and the US (Patriot and HIMARS missiles). Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes and HIMARS use in Kursk Oblast. Claims of a Polish mercenary fighting on the Ukrainian side in Kursk Oblast.
Foreign Fighters: Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, underscores the strategic importance of this area. Russia's official claim of liberating Kotlyarovka, if accurate, represents a tangible tactical gain and contributes to their overall strategic objective of securing the Donbas region. The focus on pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast also indicates a potential strategic aim to gain fire control over key logistical hubs. DeepState's report of Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka confirms recent tactical gains in specific sectors, which have strategic implications for controlling key populated areas and logistical routes.
The ongoing diplomatic discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations highlight the continued international dimension of the conflict. However, the discovery of messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" is a powerful counter-signal that directly undermines the prospects for immediate de-escalation and suggests a continued Russian commitment to military objectives over a negotiated settlement in the short term.
The large-scale Russian drone attacks, coupled with continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes, demonstrate Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to counter these efforts through air defense and effective targeting with drones and SDB bombs highlights the ongoing adaptation and technological aspects of the conflict. Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs and HIMARS in Kursk Oblast, if verified, would represent a potential strategic escalation in the types of munitions used by Ukraine against targets within Russia.
The exclusion of Lieutenant General Havryliuk from Ukraine's Stavka is a notable change in high-level personnel and could indicate a shift in operational planning or leadership structure at the highest level of the Ukrainian military.
The EU's allocation of €900 million for weapons and ammunition, combined with the US approval of German transfer of Patriot and HIMARS missiles, represent significant and tangible strategic support for Ukraine's defense capabilities. This aid directly contributes to Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense and potentially conduct offensive operations.
The diplomatic tension between Russia and Moldova over historical textbook content, while not directly military, reflects broader geopolitical dynamics and Russia's sensitivity regarding its historical narrative and influence in neighboring countries.
The claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast and the alleged use of foreign-made aviation bombs on Russian territory are likely to be leveraged by Russia in information operations to portray the conflict as a proxy war involving NATO and other foreign powers, with the strategic aim of garnering domestic support and potentially influencing international perceptions.
Updated operational maps of Donetsk Oblast provide crucial visual information on the tactical situation, allowing for a better understanding of the current state of the front lines, areas of contestation, and the location of defensive fortifications, which is essential for strategic planning.
The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad and has strategic implications for counterintelligence efforts and national security in NATO countries.
The reported deployment of new anti-personnel mines by Ukraine on the Sumy direction is a tactical adaptation with strategic implications for slowing down potential Russian advances and creating defensive obstacles in border regions.
The armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya, indicate a new area of instability and conflict that could have broader regional implications, potentially drawing the attention of international actors or impacting energy markets.
The military exercises in Lithuania and Russia's reaction to them highlight increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region, which is a strategically important area bordering both Russia and NATO countries.
The unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the Ukrainian border, if verified, could be a significant strategic development, indicating a potential shift in Hungary's stance or an attempt to exert pressure related to the conflict. This requires careful monitoring and verification.
Alex Parker Returns' immediate commentary on the unconfirmed Hungarian armor movement suggests that this event is being quickly integrated into Russian information operations, potentially to create a narrative of a potential "second front" or to portray Hungary as taking a stronger stance.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report