Sitrep 2025-05-12 19:26:53

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 19:26 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment is defined by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, with Russian forces claiming recent advances in multiple directions, including near Redkodub on the Oskol front and islands on the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka. Ukraine reports 133 combat engagements across the entire front line today, highlighting the scale of the fighting. Russian forces are maintaining persistent aerial activity, utilizing a high volume of drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), with recent launches reported on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukraine reports significant numbers of Russian drone and artillery strikes in the South. Ukraine is actively countering these efforts, reporting repelled assaults across numerous directions and significant Russian losses. Russian information operations continue, focusing on Victory Day themes, portraying internal Ukrainian issues, and highlighting claimed military successes and Ukrainian losses. Diplomatic activity concerning a potential ceasefire and negotiations continues, with Lavrov and Fidan discussing Putin's initiative for direct talks in Istanbul on May 15th, while a Ukrainian political analyst sees the military situation as the sole threat to these negotiations. Recent reports highlight continued civilian casualties and damage from shelling and drone attacks in various regions. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and legal developments, are also reported. Poland's ongoing military modernization is being interpreted by Russian sources as preparation for future conflict. Significant new information includes updated reports from the Ukrainian General Staff providing a detailed picture of repelled enemy assaults and Russian military activity across multiple directions. The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a notable development from the Ukrainian Navy. Further reports detail Russian drone and missile activity, including a claimed destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS system by Russian forces near the border. Both sides are engaging in fundraising efforts to support their military operations. Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day and historical context, alongside reports of internal security and legal developments. Training activities for Ukrainian forces, particularly in tactical medicine, are highlighted. Discussions regarding potential peace talks in Istanbul persist, with divergent positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine and Russia. Civilian casualties are reported in various Ukrainian and Russian border regions. Information operations surrounding alleged incidents during European leaders' visit to Kyiv are ongoing. Russian military bloggers are sharing visual content from the front lines, including claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and alleged demoralization among Ukrainian soldiers. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces are approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk. New information indicates Poland's closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage. Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area suggest potential logistical preparations. Ukraine's GUR reports details on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") being launched from drones, allegedly using foreign components. Ukrainian military intelligence is actively combating internal sabotage efforts, leading to arrests in Rivne Oblast. Russian sources are reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment by MLRS fire in Zaporizhzhia. Russian military bloggers continue to fundraise for equipment. Internal Russian reports include an arrest of an ex-senator on fraud charges and a disturbing report of an alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Russian media continues to portray events through a specific narrative, exemplified by commentary on the Macron video and celebrating LPR day. Ukrainian forces in the South are reporting significant Russian losses and repelled assaults on various fronts. Training exercises for Ukrainian infantry are ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast. More details on the large-scale Russian drone attack confirm impacts in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Reports from Donetsk Oblast confirm civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure from Russian shelling. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has reportedly decided to self-dissolve. New Su-35S fighters have been delivered to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast highlights potential issues with guided munition reliability. A US-China trade truce is reported. Recent developments include the death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike and intensified Russian attacks on multiple directions, with Ukraine reporting repelling a large number of assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. The ICAO Council has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17. Zelenskyy has reaffirmed his readiness for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, while Russia's MFA spokesperson has dismissed past negotiation opportunities and framed Western calls for a ceasefire as a tactic for Ukrainian military recovery. Ukrainian MFA reports discussions with European partners on the ceasefire process. Russian sources continue to emphasize claimed military successes and portray Ukrainian forces as expendable. The PKK has announced its self-dissolution. The commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," has reported significant effectiveness of his unit in inflicting casualties and destroying targets using drones. Ukraine is working on a registry of prohibited software. Ukraine is promoting the Ukrainian language globally through audio guides. A fire at the home of the UK Labour leader is being investigated by counter-terrorism police.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Discussions on Potential Direct Talks in Istanbul: ТАСС reports that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan discussed issues related to Putin's initiative for direct negotiations on Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15th. This confirms active diplomatic maneuvering regarding potential peace talks. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Zelenskyy refused to approve a previously agreed-upon document during a meeting with Putin in 2019. This statement likely serves to frame Ukraine as unwilling to engage in meaningful negotiations and to dismiss current calls for talks. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential and continue confronting Russia. This is a clear counter-narrative to Western calls for a ceasefire and suggests Russia is unlikely to agree to such a proposal without significant concessions. Alex Parker Returns shares a video seemingly of Zelenskyy in Istanbul, labeling him a "military dictator" and wishing "Pypa" (a likely derogatory term for Putin) luck in negotiations. This suggests Zelenskyy may already be in Turkey or that propaganda is being disseminated portraying him as such. РБК-Україна reports a political analyst's view that the military situation is the sole threat to negotiations in Istanbul. This highlights the perceived link between battlefield dynamics and diplomatic prospects. Zelenskiy / Official reiterated his readiness for direct and substantive talks with Putin in Turkey, stating Ukraine always supports diplomacy. He expressed gratitude to President Erdogan for his support and readiness to host the meeting. Zelenskyy noted the world has not yet received a clear response from Russia regarding numerous ceasefire proposals and that Russian shelling and assaults continue. He described Moscow's silence on the direct meeting proposal as "very strange silence" but emphasized that Russia will eventually have to end the war and it's better to do it sooner. He also highlighted that President Trump fully supports the meeting and Ukraine would like him to find an opportunity to be in Turkey. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Zelenskiy / Official reiterate Zelenskyy's statement on the lack of a clear response from Russia regarding ceasefire proposals and the continuation of shelling and assaults. Офіс Президента reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, held discussions with representatives of EU institutions, Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, France, and Germany, coordinating on the ceasefire process, indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement on the Ukrainian side with key European partners. STERNENKO reports that "Wheimar+" countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK, and the EU High Representative) are demanding a 30-day ceasefire from Russia, discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, including a potential coalition of forces, and increased pressure on the Kremlin, including fighting the "shadow fleet" and preserving frozen Russian assets. Kotsnews provides a similar analysis to The Guardian report from an earlier update, suggesting Zelenskyy is using Trump to avoid being "dropped."
Death of Russian Military Chaplain Due to HIMARS Strike: Военкор Котенок reports the death of military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko in the "SVO zone" due to a HIMARS strike while performing his pastoral duty. This confirms the loss of a military chaplain and suggests successful targeting by Ukrainian forces using HIMARS.
Claimed Russian Advances and Territorial Control Changes: Colonelcassad shares a map with insets claiming Russian forces have entered Redkodub on the Oskol front and that islands on the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka have come under Russian control. This indicates claimed recent territorial changes in these areas. The map also provides a visual representation of claimed control zones and recent advancements on the Dzerzhinsk direction, stating that Russian forces predominantly control the city and are advancing on the flanks near Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka.
Updated Information on Intense Combat and Repelled Assaults: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides a detailed operational update as of 22:00 today, reporting 133 combat engagements across the entire front line. They report 45 aviation strikes with 79 guided aerial bombs, 1140 kamikaze drones used, and 3987 shellings. Significant numbers of repelled assaults are reported on key directions: Kharkiv (5), Kupiansk (5), Lyman (19, with 3 ongoing), Siversk (6), Kramatorsk (3, with fighting continuing), Toretsk (6, with 2 ongoing), Pokrovsk (50), Novopavlivka (15, with 3 ongoing), Orikhiv (6), and Pridniprovsk (4). This highlights the extremely high intensity of fighting, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. The General Staff also reports ongoing attacks on the Kursk direction (9, with 1 ongoing) and significant Russian aerial and artillery activity there.
Russian Information Operation Featuring Captured Ukrainian Soldier: MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman claiming that Ukrainian command regards its personnel as expendable. This is a clear information operation aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and portraying their command as indifferent to their welfare.
International Legal Recognition of Russian Responsibility for MH17: Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and ASTRA report that the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of flight MH17 in 2014. This is a significant international legal development, with the ICAO expected to address the issue of compensation for the victims.
Commander of Ukrainian Drone Brigade Reports High Effectiveness: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," dedicated his Hero of Ukraine award to his team, wife, and 20 fallen comrades. He reported that in 9 months, his brigade lost 20 soldiers while killing and wounding 10,000 occupiers and destroying nearly 31,000 other unique enemy targets, all confirmed in the "Delta" system. This provides specific metrics on the claimed effectiveness of a Ukrainian drone unit and highlights the significant role of drones in inflicting casualties and destroying equipment.
Continued Fundraising Efforts by Both Sides: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and an AvengeAngel signal amplifier for a soldier. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is fundraising for drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios for the Kursk front. These reports indicate ongoing reliance on public and private donations to equip military units on both sides.
Reports on General Surovikin's Appearance and Role: Colonelcassad and НгП раZVедка share photos and commentary on General Surovikin's physical appearance, framing it as a sign of good health and fitness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that General Surovikin has been sent to the Russian embassy in Algeria as the "head of the group of Russian military specialists," interpreting this as "honorary exile." These reports provide differing interpretations of Surovikin's current status and role, suggesting a focus on managing his public image.
Ukrainian Plans for Software Registry: РБК-Україна reports that the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine is working on a project to create a registry of prohibited software, citing the issue of "enemy software" as "very painful." This indicates efforts to address cybersecurity threats and potential foreign influence through software.
Ukrainian Language Promotion Project: Zelenskiy / Official shares a message and photos about a project to increase the presence of the Ukrainian language in audio guides at world landmarks, covering 53 countries and 100 locations. This highlights a cultural defense strategy aimed at supporting Ukrainians abroad and preserving national identity.
Fire at UK Labour Leader's Home: РБК-Україна reports a fire at the home of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer in London, with the counter-terrorism unit investigating the cause. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, this is a significant security incident in a key allied country.
Belarusian OMON Delegation Attends Chechen OMON Anniversary: Kadyrov_95 reports that a delegation from the OMON of the Main Internal Affairs Directorate of the Minsk City Executive Committee in Belarus attended the 25th anniversary celebration of OMON "Akhmat-Grozny" in Chechnya, highlighting their participation in the "special military operation" and cooperation. This indicates continued security force cooperation between Russia and Belarus, with Chechen units highlighting their role in the conflict.
Reported Death of an Undisclosed Russian Military Figure: НгП раZVедка reports the death of a Russian military figure referred to as "Emir" at 21:45, stating he fought "valiantly" against the enemy and died from shrapnel wounds. The report emphasizes that his identity and deeds will remain largely unknown to the public due to the nature of his work.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Novohrodivka, Horlivka, Bakhmut districts, Redkodub, Dzerzhinsk, Romanovka, Staraya Nikolaevka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reports numerous assaults repelled across these directions, with 50 assaults on the Pokrovsk direction today. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 13 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivka direction, six on the Orikhiv direction, and one unsuccessful attempt on the Dnipro direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog in the "liberated" Novohrodivka, indicating Russian presence and control claims. ASTRA reports a Russian drone attacked a civilian cargo train in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut districts. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka due to shelling. Russian sources report continued combat in the South Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian forces have entered Redkodub and predominantly control Dzerzhinsk, advancing on the flanks near Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs on the Donetsk region.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Rylsk, Tetkino, Khomutovka, Valuyki, Богун-Городок, Борки, Красный Октябрь — Бессоновка, Двулучное, Архангельское, Соболевка, Уразово, Чайки, Аркатово — Посохово, Nahornivka): Ukrainian General Staff reports 9 attacks and significant Russian aerial and artillery activity. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk, injuring three people and damaging a hotel and vehicles. Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, after allegedly striking Rylsk. Рыбарь reports continued fighting near Tetkino and Ukrainian attempts to break through, including with Leopard tanks. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is fundraising for the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." Олексій Білошицький thanks Ukrainian National Police units for their defense efforts on the Kursk direction.
Sumy Oblast (Nahornivka, Konotop, Черневе): Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka after allegedly striking Rylsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the Cherneve area. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of an attack on enemy positions on the Sumy direction, involving drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs on the Sumy region.
Odesa Oblast (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi): Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms significant destruction and one injured person. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelling six enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster. Два майора is fundraising for tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munition use for frontline regions.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack (reported previously). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports Russian forces approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk.
Kherson Oblast (Near Nova Kakhovka): Colonelcassad shares a map claiming islands on the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka are under Russian control. Сили оборони Півдня України reports one unsuccessful enemy attempt to advance on the Dnipro direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities from Ukrainian strikes and continued mutual artillery/drone strikes across the Dnieper.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Korocha district, Valuyki, Bohun-Horodok, Borki, Krasnyi Oktiabr - Bessonovka road, Dvuluchne, Arkhangelske, Sobolivka, Urazove, Chaiki, Arkatovo - Posokhovo road, Ivitsa): Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Korocha district.
Rivne Oblast (Near Rivne): Офіс Генерального прокурора and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the detention of two Russian agents for an attempted terrorist attack.
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Buryatia (Russia) (Barguzin): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights a memorial for those killed in the "SVO".
Perm (Russia): Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime.
Kyiv: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a public announcement for blood donation, indicating a need for blood group 1. This highlights the humanitarian impact of the conflict and the need for medical support.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports a large-scale Russian attack involving 108 Shahed-type and decoy drones overnight, with 55 shot down and 30 decoy drones lost. The attack affected Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 650 kamikaze drone strikes and over 400 drops from UAVs using around 500 munitions in the South. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms destruction and injury in Odesa Oblast due to the attack. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Ukrainian GUR, reports on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from Orion UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of an attack on enemy positions on the Sumy direction, involving drones. Два майора is fundraising for drone detectors for tank crews. Военкор Котенок is fundraising for motorcycles and drone detectors. Ukrainian General Staff reports 1140 drones were used by Russia today. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," reports destroying nearly 31,000 enemy targets using drones. STERNENKO shares a video appearing to show a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from the 38th Separate Marine Brigade, potentially involving drones.
Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 10 aviation strikes by Russian forces in the South, using 15 guided aerial bombs and 101 unguided aerial rockets. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munition use for frontline regions. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 aviation bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast. ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 aviation strikes and 79 guided aerial bombs used by Russia today. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs on the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Missile Activity: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast, injuring three people. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South, including MLRS. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts (later lifted). Военкор Котенок reports the death of military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko due to a HIMARS strike. Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports 3987 shellings, including 8 from MLRS, today. РБК-Україна reports that Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a Staff meeting focused on the use of drones and missiles. Олексій Білошицький thanks Ukrainian military units for their defense efforts on the Donetsk and Kursk directions, implying the use of missiles/artillery in these areas.
Naval Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area, including two military ships. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 4 enemy boats in the past day. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming islands on the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka are under Russian control, relevant to riverine operations.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports 55 Russian UAVs were shot down overnight. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 3 enemy air defense systems in the past day. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling numerous aerial attacks.
Artillery Activity: Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka due to shelling. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian General Staff reports 228 artillery shellings, including eight from MLRS, on the Kursk direction today. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports continued shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Олексій Білошицький thanks Ukrainian military units for their defense efforts on the Donetsk and Kursk directions, implying ongoing artillery duels.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Лавров и Фидан обсудили вопросы, связанные с инициативой Путина о начале прямых переговоров по Украине в Стамбуле 15 мая, сообщает МИД РФ. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Zelenskyy refused to approve a previously agreed-upon document during a meeting with Putin in 2019. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of Zelenskyy in Istanbul, labeling him a "military dictator." РБК-Україна reports a political analyst's view that the military situation is the sole threat to negotiations in Istanbul. Zelenskiy / Official reiterated his readiness for direct and substantive talks with Putin in Turkey, noting Russia's "very strange silence" on the proposal. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Zelenskiy / Official reiterate Zelenskyy's statement on the lack of a clear response from Russia regarding ceasefire proposals. Офіс Президента reports discussions with European partners on the ceasefire process. STERNENKO reports "Wheimar+" countries demanding a 30-day ceasefire and discussing security guarantees and pressure on Russia. Kotsnews provides a similar analysis to The Guardian report, suggesting Zelenskyy is using Trump.
International Support for Ukraine: A meeting of EU foreign ministers is scheduled in the UK today to discuss support for Ukraine and European security. The UK Foreign Minister plans to announce further sanctions against individuals supporting the Russian invasion. Офіс Президента reports discussions with European partners on the ceasefire process. STERNENKO reports "Wheimar+" countries demanding a 30-day ceasefire and discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, including a potential coalition of forces, and increased pressure on the Kremlin. Ukrainian General Staff thanks specific Ukrainian military units (144th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 128th Separate Mountain Assault Transcarpathian Brigade, 34th Separate Marine Corps Coastal Defense Brigade) for inflicting losses on the enemy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," dedicated his Hero of Ukraine award to his team and fallen comrades, highlighting the human cost of the conflict and the support for military units. РБК-Україна reports that the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine is working on a project to create a registry of prohibited software, which could impact international software providers. Zelenskiy / Official shares a message and photos about a project to increase the presence of the Ukrainian language in audio guides at world landmarks, involving embassies and consulates.
Russia-Poland Relations: Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act. This is a significant diplomatic escalation.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations in Istanbul continues, with differing conditions from each side. Zelenskiy / Official reiterated his readiness for direct talks with Putin in Turkey. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova made statements about past negotiations and current ceasefire proposals. Офіс Президента reports discussions with European partners on the ceasefire process.
Russian Internal Politics: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to Victory Day and alleged "neo-fascism" in Europe. Два майора is engaged in fundraising. Военкор Котенок is engaged in fundraising. Басурин о главном reports on the PKK self-dissolution. ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports the death of military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko. Colonelcassad and НгП раZVедка share photos and commentary on General Surovikin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on General Surovikin's assignment to Algeria. Kadyrov_95 reports on Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya. НгП раZVедка reports the death of an undisclosed Russian military figure.
Ukraine's International Relations: Ukraine is engaging with EU foreign ministers in the UK to discuss support. Ukraine is responding to Hungary's expulsion of diplomats and addressing the issue of rare earth metal reserves and potential US interest (reported previously). Discussion around potential direct negotiations with Russia in Istanbul continues. The Guardian reports on Zelenskyy's move to seize the initiative regarding Istanbul talks. Ukraine is engaged in counterintelligence efforts, leading to the detention of Russian agents. Zelenskiy / Official reiterated his readiness for direct talks with Putin in Turkey and noted President Trump's support. Офіс Президента reports discussions with European partners on the ceasefire process. STERNENKO reports "Wheimar+" countries demanding a 30-day ceasefire and discussing security guarantees and pressure on Russia. РБК-Україна reports that the ICAO Council has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17. Zelenskiy / Official shares a message and photos about a project to increase the presence of the Ukrainian language in audio guides at world landmarks, involving embassies and consulates.
PKK Self-Dissolution: Басурин о главном and Colonelcassad report that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has decided to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. This has implications for Turkey and regional security.
US-China Relations: A 90-day trade truce has been agreed upon, with both sides lowering tariffs. This is a significant international economic development.
ICAO Ruling on MH17: Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and ASTRA report that the ICAO Council has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17. This is a significant international legal development.
Internal UK Issues: РБК-Україна reports a fire at the home of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer, with the counter-terrorism unit investigating.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Reports of drone activity within Russia continue (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov Oblasts). ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to internal and external threats. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast. РБК-Україна reports a fire at the home of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer is being investigated by counter-terrorism police, highlighting a security incident in a key allied country. Kadyrov_95 reports on Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya, highlighting security force cooperation.
Legal Developments: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database.
Information Operations: Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day, the conflict in Ukraine, and internal/external threats. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is celebrating LPR day and promoting narratives on "neo-fascism." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is sharing content related to Russian forces and potentially propaganda about Ukrainian areas. Два майора and Военкор Котенок are sharing videos and commentary, including fundraising appeals. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is sharing videos of military actions and commenting on international events. Басурин о главном is commenting on regional developments. ASTRA reports on a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, potentially highlighting issues that Russian authorities may seek to downplay or misrepresent. MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman claiming Ukrainian command regards its personnel as expendable. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of Zelenskyy in Istanbul, labeling him a "military dictator." Colonelcassad and НгП раZVедка share photos and commentary on General Surovikin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on General Surovikin's assignment to Algeria. Kadyrov_95 reports on Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya, highlighting their participation in the "special military operation." НгП раZVедка reports the death of an undisclosed Russian military figure, framing it in a specific narrative.
Military Production: ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Civilian Casualties (Russian territory): ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast, but reports no casualties in this specific incident.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Civilian Impact: Reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure continue in Donetsk, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine, and Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts in Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka due to shelling. Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast from Ukrainian strikes. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a public announcement for blood donation in Kyiv, highlighting the ongoing need for medical support due to casualties.
Ukrainian Military Training: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 highlights ongoing infantry training at the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast.
Fundraising Efforts: Два майора and Военкор Котенок are conducting fundraising for equipment for Russian military units. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a drone and signal amplifier for a soldier. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is fundraising for the Kursk front.
Support for Military Personnel and Families: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog from Novohrodivka, highlighting a humanitarian action by Russian soldiers. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," dedicated his Hero of Ukraine award to his team, wife, and 20 fallen comrades, highlighting the sacrifices made by Ukrainian forces. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a public announcement for blood donation in Kyiv.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Conducting large-scale drone attacks (over 100 UAVs), extensive artillery and MLRS shelling, and aviation strikes with guided bombs. Utilizing FPV drones. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (HIMARS, boats, air defense systems, vehicles). Employing tactical aviation. Delivering new Su-35S fighter jets. Potentially using a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. Reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and successful strikes by Grad MLRS in Zaporizhzhia. Observing increased military cargo movement in Odesa. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Ukrainian General Staff reports 133 combat engagements, 45 aviation strikes, 79 guided aerial bombs, 1140 kamikaze drones, and 3987 shellings today. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces have entered Redkodub and control islands near Nova Kakhovka. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces predominantly control Dzerzhinsk and are advancing on the flanks. Военкор Котенок reports the death of military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko due to a HIMARS strike. Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka. MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman claiming Ukrainian command regards its personnel as expendable. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, potentially indicating issues with guided munitions. Kadyrov_95 reports on Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya, highlighting security force cooperation and their participation in the "special military operation." НгП раZVедка reports the death of an undisclosed Russian military figure.
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults across numerous sectors, reporting successful repels (50 on Pokrovsk direction) and significant Russian losses (personnel, equipment, air defense systems, boats). Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks (55 drones shot down). Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces. Utilizing maritime drones. Seeking international support and military aid. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling. Claiming destruction of Russian equipment. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling numerous assaults across multiple directions and providing numbers for Russian aerial and artillery activity. Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelled assaults and significant Russian losses in the South. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," reports killing and wounding 10,000 occupiers and destroying nearly 31,000 enemy targets using drones. STERNENKO shares a video appearing to show a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from the 38th Separate Marine Brigade, potentially involving drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 highlights ongoing infantry training.
PKK: Reportedly deciding to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly the extremely high number of engagements reported on the Pokrovsk direction, indicates that both sides remain committed to achieving military objectives through force and highlights the severity of the fighting in this area. Russia's claims of advances in various directions, if accurate, suggest they are maintaining offensive pressure and seeking to gain ground. Ukraine's reports of repelling numerous assaults and inflicting significant losses indicate strong defensive resistance.
The large-scale Russian drone attack and continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes highlight Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant number of drones, coupled with the reported destruction of Russian air defense systems by Ukrainian forces, indicates an ongoing air and electronic warfare battle. The reported use of a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones, allegedly with foreign components, suggests Russia is adapting its tactics and may be seeking to circumvent sanctions or utilize readily available technology, posing an evolving threat that requires updated countermeasures. The report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, coupled with previous similar incidents, suggests potential technical challenges or errors in the use of guided munitions by Russian forces. This could have implications for the effectiveness of their air strikes and potentially pose risks to their own territory.
The diplomatic exchanges and public statements from leaders underscore the continued international dimension of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to find a path towards negotiation. The differing positions on the conditions for a ceasefire, with Ukraine insisting on a prior ceasefire and Russia dismissing past negotiation opportunities and framing Western calls for a truce as a tactical maneuver, highlight the deep-seated disagreements that remain and suggest that substantive progress in negotiations will be challenging without a significant shift in positions. Zelenskyy's reiterated readiness for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, coupled with his comment on Russia's "very strange silence," suggests Ukraine is actively pursuing the diplomatic avenue despite the lack of immediate reciprocity from Moscow, and the reported support from President Trump adds weight to this diplomatic push. The coordinated efforts by Ukraine and its European partners on the ceasefire process, as reported by the Office of the President and STERNENKO, indicate a unified diplomatic effort on the Ukrainian side.
Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage, is a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions and suggests a potential expansion of Russian hostile activities beyond Ukraine's borders. This development requires heightened vigilance and coordination among NATO allies to deter and respond to such actions. The fire at the home of the UK Labour leader being investigated by counter-terrorism police, while not directly linked, underscores the potential for such activities in allied countries.
Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area warrant close monitoring and intelligence analysis to determine the nature and intent of these movements. This could indicate preparations for offensive actions in the south or simply logistical resupply, but it represents a potential area of increased risk.
The detention of Russian agents in Rivne Oblast for an attempted terrorist attack underscores the ongoing internal security threats faced by Ukraine and the importance of effective counterintelligence efforts to prevent destabilization and gather intelligence on Russian networks within the country. The Ukrainian plan to create a registry of prohibited software is a strategic move to enhance national cybersecurity and counter potential foreign influence or espionage through software, reflecting a recognition of the importance of the cyber domain in the current conflict.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and damage on both sides of the front line highlights the devastating humanitarian impact of the conflict and the ongoing violation of international humanitarian law. Prioritizing minimizing civilian harm and collateral damage remains a critical ethical and strategic imperative. The public announcement for blood donation in Kyiv underscores the ongoing medical strain caused by the conflict.
The ongoing fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment like drones and thermal imagers suggest that while the Russian state provides significant resources, there may still be gaps in supply at the unit level, and public support plays a role in bridging these gaps.
The reported self-dissolution of the PKK could have regional implications, particularly for Turkey, and might indirectly influence the broader geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict.
The delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to Russia indicates their continued efforts to maintain and modernize their air force, which remains a significant factor in the conflict.
The ICAO's formal recognition of Russia's responsibility for the downing of MH17 is a significant international legal development. While the incident occurred before the current large-scale invasion, the ICAO's ruling holds Russia accountable under international law and is likely to lead to demands for compensation from the Netherlands and Australia. This has long-term implications for Russia's international standing and potential legal ramifications.
The commander of the 414th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UBAS), "Madyar," reporting significant effectiveness of his unit in inflicting casualties and destroying targets using drones, provides concrete evidence of the strategic impact of Ukrainian drone operations and highlights the importance of this capability.
Zelenskiy / Official sharing information about the project to increase the presence of the Ukrainian language in audio guides at world landmarks highlights a strategic effort related to cultural preservation and national identity during a time when these are under threat. This is a non-military, but strategically relevant, initiative aimed at strengthening Ukrainian identity globally.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Operational Workflow: (Continued based on new information)

Data from the new messages will be integrated into the existing analysis workflow. This includes:

Data Collection and Preprocessing: The new reports on Lavrov-Fidan discussion, Zakharova's statements, Alex Parker Returns' video on Zelenskyy in Istanbul, the political analyst's view on negotiations, Zelenskyy's reiteration of readiness for talks and comments on Russian silence, Yermak's discussions with European partners, "Wheimar+" demands and discussions, the death of military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko, Colonelcassad's claims of territorial changes, the Ukrainian General Staff's detailed operational update, the MoD Russia video of a captured Ukrainian soldier, the ICAO ruling on MH17, the commander of the 414th UBAS brigade's report, fundraising efforts, reports on General Surovikin, Ukrainian software registry plans, the Ukrainian language promotion project, the fire at Keir Starmer's home, Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya, and the reported death of an undisclosed Russian military figure will be added to the relevant datasets (diplomatic/political, internal Russian issues, military performance/capabilities, force composition/tactics, support, information operations, international relations, legal developments).
Analysis and Modeling: The analysis will be updated to reflect the confirmed diplomatic discussions on the Istanbul initiative and the conflicting public statements from both sides regarding negotiations and ceasefires. The significance of the ICAO ruling on MH17 and its potential legal implications will be further assessed. The death of the Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike will be analyzed for tactical insights and potential targeting information. Colonelcassad's claims of territorial changes will be cross-referenced with other available information. The detailed operational update from the Ukrainian General Staff will be analyzed for patterns in Russian assault intensity and areas of focus, particularly the high number of engagements on the Pokrovsk direction. The MoD Russia video will be analyzed as an information operation. The commander of the 414th UBAS brigade's report will be analyzed for insights into the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and the role of specific units. The ongoing fundraising efforts will be assessed for their contribution to military support. The reports on General Surovikin will be analyzed within the context of Russian internal dynamics and information management. The Ukrainian software registry plan will be analyzed for its cybersecurity implications. The Ukrainian language promotion project will be analyzed as a cultural defense strategy. The fire at Keir Starmer's home will be noted as a security incident in a key allied country. The report on Belarusian OMON attending a celebration in Chechnya will be analyzed for indications of continued security cooperation between Russia and Belarus and the role of specific units in the conflict. The reported death of an undisclosed Russian military figure will be noted as a potential loss of experienced personnel, even without specific identification.
Reporting and Visualization: The updated reports will include summaries of the new diplomatic developments, including the Istanbul initiative, conflicting statements, and coordinated efforts by Ukraine and its European partners. The significance of the ICAO ruling on MH17 will be highlighted. New claims of territorial changes, military successes, and losses will be integrated into the situational updates, including the high number of engagements on the Pokrovsk direction. The death of the Russian military chaplain will be reported. The claimed effectiveness of Ukrainian drone units will be included in the force composition and tactics section. The ongoing fundraising efforts will be included in the support section. Reports on General Surovikin will be included in the internal Russian issues section. The Ukrainian software registry plan and language promotion project will be included in the relevant sections on internal Ukrainian issues and strategic considerations. The fire at Keir Starmer's home will be noted in the international relations section. The report on Belarusian OMON will be included in the section on Russia-Belarus relations. The reported death of the undisclosed Russian military figure will be noted in the internal Russian issues section.
Feedback Loop: The updated analysis and reports will be disseminated to human commanders for feedback, which will be incorporated to refine future assessments and recommendations.

This continuous process ensures that the analysis remains agile and responsive to the dynamic operational environment, providing commanders with the most accurate and relevant information to support their decision-making while adhering to ethical standards and minimizing collateral damage.

Situation Report