Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 18:26 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, significant aerial and drone activity, and ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly concerning potential peace talks in Turkey. Key developments highlight continued Russian pressure in eastern Ukraine and the Kharkiv region, persistent drone warfare across multiple oblasts, reports of issues with Ukrainian mortar ammunition quality, and ongoing discussions regarding negotiations and a ceasefire. Support for military units on both sides continues through various means, including civilian donations and official government programs. Concerns regarding the long-term economic and social impacts of the conflict, such as veteran employment challenges and disruptions to cross-border logistics, are also emerging. The situation in the Kursk border region remains tense with reports of the use of heavy ordnance. Diplomatic maneuvers, including Zelenskyy's reaffirmed readiness for direct talks with Putin and Turkey's willingness to host, contrast sharply with a Russian military blogger's skepticism and hardline stance. The conviction of individuals in the UK for spying for Russia underscores the broader intelligence war. The ICAO has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17. A new development regarding the self-dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been reported, with potential implications for regional dynamics and Turkey's focus.
Key updates from the latest messages include:
ICAO Recognizes Russia as Responsible for MH17 Downing:РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the ICAO Council has ruled Russia responsible for the downing of flight MH17 in July 2014. The decision also states that Russia violated the Chicago Convention by unlawfully using its weaponry against a civilian aircraft. ICAO is now expected to obligate Russia to enter negotiations with the Netherlands and Australia for compensation. This is a significant international legal development with potential long-term consequences for Russia.
Self-Dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced its self-dissolution at its 12th congress. They stated they are disbanding their structure, ceasing armed struggle, and ending activities under the name PKK at this stage, having achieved their mission of bringing the Kurdish question to a point where it can be solved through democratic politics. This development, if confirmed and implemented, could have significant implications for regional stability, particularly in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, and could potentially shift Turkey's strategic focus. Rybar also reports on Erdogan's reaction, noting his satisfaction but also highlighting his statement that he views the decision as also applying to PKK branches in Iraq, Syria, and Europe, and that Turkey will closely monitor the process. This suggests Turkey may maintain a degree of vigilance or be ready to resume military operations if the dissolution is not comprehensive across all branches.
Zelenskyy Reiterates Readiness for Direct Talks with Putin in Turkey:Zelenskiy / Official reiterated his readiness for direct and substantive talks with Putin in Turkey, stating Ukraine always supports diplomacy. He expressed gratitude to President Erdogan for his support and readiness to host the meeting. Zelenskyy noted the world has not yet received a clear response from Russia regarding numerous ceasefire proposals and that Russian shelling and assaults continue. He described Moscow's silence on the direct meeting proposal as "very strange silence" but emphasized that Russia will eventually have to end the war and it's better to do it sooner. He also highlighted that President Trump fully supports the meeting and Ukraine would like him to find an opportunity to be in Turkey. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports on Zelenskyy's statement that Putin will still need to end the war and it's better to do it sooner.Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports Zelenskyy's statement on readiness for direct talks with Putin.Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Zelenskyy's statement regarding the meeting in Turkey and the importance of Trump's presence.
Analysis of US SOF Future Priorities: Colonelcassad provides an analysis of future priorities for US Special Operations Forces (SOF) based on a briefing, highlighting a shift from counter-terrorism and crisis response to "adaptable and multi-domain SOF formations" optimized for strategic hybrid conflicts. Priorities include increased effectiveness, training new personnel for future high-tech conflicts, focusing on strategic interests (including creating regional problems for strategic adversaries), enhanced resource control, and incorporating feedback from lower levels. This indicates a strategic adaptation by the US military to evolving global threats and the nature of future conflicts.
Russian Claims of Production Increase in Military-Industrial Complex: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, shares an infographic claiming a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022, including significant jumps at the Kazan Helicopter Plant, and the Perm and Kazan gunpowder plants. The source interprets this as a standard situation in wartime reflecting growing army demands and suggests Western media will frame it as Russia preparing for aggression. This indicates a significant effort by Russia to ramp up its defense industrial base to sustain the conflict.
Reports of EU Sanctions on Russian "Shadow Fleet": РБК-Україна, citing EUobserver, reports that the EU will prohibit 25 Russian tankers from operating in the Baltic and North Seas. These tankers are among 149 vessels expected to be blacklisted by the EU for helping Russia circumvent Western oil embargoes. This indicates continued economic pressure on Russia's energy sector and its ability to fund the war.
Russian Claims of Advance near Novoselka and Grodovka (Pokrovsk Direction): Colonelcassad shares maps with insets claiming Russian forces have advanced near Novoselka and Grodovka on the Pokrovsk direction. The maps show areas of control, recent control shifts to Russian forces, gray zones, fortifications, and trenches. This indicates continued ground pressure and claimed territorial gains by Russian forces in this key area.
Ukrainian Psychological Operation: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ share a video with a message from "Acute Cartridges" warning Russian occupiers about the consequences of invading Ukrainian land, framed with a psychological impact message. This highlights the use of information operations by Ukraine.
Discussion on Trump's Influence on Zelenskyy's Decision for Talks: РБК-Україна, citing The Guardian, reports that European diplomats believe Trump's public insistence on immediate peace talks with Russia hindered European plans to pressure the US into sanctioning Russia for refusing a ceasefire and that Zelenskyy agreed to talks with Putin to avoid offending Trump. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports this from The Guardian, framing it as Trump disrupting European plans. This introduces a new dimension to the diplomatic situation, suggesting external political influence on Ukraine's position.
Reported Issues with Ukrainian Mortar Ammunition: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on claims from military personnel on the front lines about "extremely low quality" gunpowder in new mortar rounds, leading to uncontrolled flight paths and significant discrepancies in range (up to 500 meters). This is reported to make accurate firing difficult and is particularly problematic during enemy offensives. An accompanying image shows a package labeled "METAL CHARGE" for 120mm rounds. This indicates a potential issue with the quality of military supplies being received by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian Use of FPV Drones in Tunnel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones successfully targeted Russian occupiers in a tunnel, described as "fine, jewelry-precise work" by the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. This highlights a specific tactic used by Ukrainian forces and the effectiveness of FPV drones in confined spaces.
Death of Russian Military Chaplain Due to HIMARS Strike (Confirmed and Unit Identified): Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports the "successful demobilization" (likely death) of Ierei Antoniy Savchenko, identifying him as a brigade chaplain of the 2nd Guards Separate Special Forces Brigade, killed by a HIMARS strike. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on the death of the Russian priest due to a HIMARS strike, also mentioning his unit affiliation and suggesting other specialists were also eliminated. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also comments on the death, suggesting it was a divine intervention given the chaplain's role in blessing troops and the use of HIMARS. This confirms the loss of a military chaplain and provides potential intelligence on the location and activities of his unit and the use of HIMARS in that area.
Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Successful Air Strikes in Southern Ukraine: MoD Russia shares a video claiming Russian Su-25 ground-attack aircraft engaged a stronghold and manpower of the enemy in the area of the "Yug Group of Forces responsibility" with aviation missiles, and all assigned targets were neutralized. This indicates continued Russian air support for ground operations, likely in southern Ukraine.
Russian Claims of Success in Kharkiv Region: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control point and a drone in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv Oblast, and cleared a block in the urban area of Vovchansk, destroying 6 enemy combat groups with vehicles. This indicates continued Russian offensive actions and claims of success in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Trustworthiness: Fighterbomber comments on the trustworthiness of another military blogger, indicating potential internal disagreements or concerns within the Russian information space.
Ukrainian Forces Report Enemy Using Star-Shaped Spikes: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy has started dropping star-shaped spikes on roads, near forward positions, and along them on sections of the front, warning of potential damage to feet and vehicle tires. This indicates a new tactic being employed by Russian forces.
Russian Propaganda Featuring Soldier's Survival: Kotsnews shares a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived a Ukrainian drone attack and a mine explosion, emphasizing his resilience and desire for revenge. This is a clear information operation aimed at boosting morale and portraying Russian soldiers as resilient.
Ukrainian Military Blogger Discusses Logistical Challenges on Donetsk Direction: STERNENKO discusses the challenges of logistics on the Donetsk direction, noting Russian problems with infantry quality but effectiveness with FPV drones, which control transport routes. He suggests Russian advances are due to disruptions in Ukrainian logistics and loss of transport vehicles, particularly light vehicles. He also draws a parallel to the Kursk situation, suggesting Russia is attempting a similar scenario. This provides insight into Ukrainian tactical and logistical concerns on this front.
Formation of 8th Corps of Ukrainian Air Assault Forces: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share a video about the formation of the 8th Corps of the Air Assault Forces, stating it's created for maximum effectiveness against occupiers and to force them to leave Ukrainian land. This indicates a restructuring and enhancement of Ukrainian airborne capabilities.
Reported Presence of General Surovikin in Algeria: Colonelcassad shares photos reportedly showing General Surovikin in Algeria at a Victory Day event, identified as the "head of the group of Russian military specialists in Algeria." This suggests Surovikin has been assigned a role in Algeria and highlights Russia's military ties with the country.
Russian Use of "Anvar" System in Border Regions: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" reconnaissance and strike system is effectively targeting Ukrainian forces, including light artillery, UAV launch points, and EW antennas, in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. This indicates Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian activity in these areas with integrated reconnaissance and strike capabilities.
Italian Foreign Minister States Russia is Responsible for Peace: РБК-Україна reports that the Italian Foreign Minister stated that all responsibility for peace lies with Putin, emphasizing that peace depends only on Moscow's will. This reflects a Western political stance on the conflict.
Russian MFA Spokesperson Claims West Seeks Ceasefire for Ukrainian Military Recovery: ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential and continue confronting Russia. This is a counter-narrative to Western calls for a ceasefire.
Ukrainian Fundraising for Artillery Equipment: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an excavator for artillerymen of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade to improve their position construction, highlighting ongoing support needs for Ukrainian units.
Russian Propaganda Featuring Military Brigade Receiving Vehicle on TV Show: ASTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where the host, on behalf of Channel One's director, gifted a car to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade, which ASTRA notes is accused of war crimes. This is a clear propaganda effort to humanize and reward military personnel involved in the conflict.
Russian Military Blogger's Opinion on Appearance of Russian Figures: Alex Parker Returns shares photos with commentary on the appearance of a Russian figure, suggesting a focus on internal perceptions and potentially political commentary through observation of public figures.
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Local Elections in Sevastopol: Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate who is the widow of a deceased Russian soldier and is reportedly actively involved in supporting the front and the city. This highlights the political process in occupied territories and efforts to support individuals associated with the military.
Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions. Another report notes activity on the northeastern direction with a similar threat. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity near the front lines.
Russian Military Bloggers as Semi-finalists in "Leaders of Russia. Politics" Contest: Kotsnews reports that several members of the Human Rights Council, including military bloggers, have reached the semi-finals of a political leadership contest. This indicates the integration of individuals with experience in the conflict and information space into the Russian political sphere.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction, South Donetsk Direction, Toretsk Direction, Dzerzhinsk/Fomikha, Novoselka, Grodovka, Lysovka, Temirovka, Horlivka, Druzhba, Krasnyi Lyman area - Redkodub): Continued intense ground combat. Russian forces claim ongoing artillery strikes in the South Donetsk direction. Heavy fighting is reported on the Toretsk direction. Rybar provides a detailed report on the Dzerzhinsk area (from a few hours ago), claiming Russian control but intense drone activity, and claims Russian advances west of Dzerzhinsk and near Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of Russian drone control points and logistical assets in Donetsk Oblast. Death of a Ukrainian soldier reported near Toretsk. "Сливочный каприз" claims Russian advances near Redkodub and reports active combat near Horlivka and claimed Russian advances north of Druzhba. "Сливочный каприз" also reports positional combat near Dzerzhinsk (Fomikha) with Ukrainian forward positions under Russian fire and claims clarification of Ukrainian control zones in northern Dzerzhinsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on potential issues with Ukrainian mortar ammunition quality, which could impact operations in areas like Donetsk where intense artillery/mortar duels occur. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian FPV drones targeting Russians in a tunnel, likely in the Donetsk area. Colonelcassad shares maps claiming Russian advances near Novoselka and Grodovka on the Pokrovsk direction and in the South Donetsk direction, indicating recent changes in territorial control. MoD Russia shares a video with servicemen of the 137th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade speaking about the liberation of Lysovka in Donetsk People's Republic. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Otvazhnye" are destroying enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk. STERNENKO discusses logistical challenges on the Donetsk direction. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share a video about the formation of the 8th Corps, which is likely intended to operate on key fronts, including potentially Donetsk.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert declared due to the threat of Russian aviation. This indicates potential airstrikes. Alert was subsequently cleared. Russian aviation strikes targeted Novodarivka, Malynivka, and Zaliznychne.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Tyotkino, Cherneve): Russian forces are using kamikaze drones on fiber optics to destroy Ukrainian military objects in the border region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb against alleged Ukrainian forces advancing on Tyotkino. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the expanding "Pentagon" drone unit was part of a regiment that fought in the Kursk region, indicating Ukrainian activity in this area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russians repeatedly shelled settlements in Sumy Oblast today, including attacks on energy workers in Stepkivka resulting in a civilian death, further shelling of Stepkivka, and shelling of Tuchne. Russian aviation strikes targeted Cherneve in Sumy Oblast. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is targeting Ukrainian forces in border regions of Sumy Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
Chernihiv Oblast (Border Region): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is targeting Ukrainian forces in border regions of Chernihiv Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast (Lyptsi area, Vovchansk, Kupiansk, Blahodativka, Iziumskyi, Bohodukhivskyi): Discussions on regional recovery, education under martial law (shelters), veteran policy, and rehabilitation services highlight the ongoing impact of the conflict and efforts to address it. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС links the death of a Russian military chaplain killed by a HIMARS strike to the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade which reportedly operates in the Kharkiv, Kursk, and Belgorod regions, suggesting HIMARS strikes in this broader area. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, shares a video highlighting regional recovery and development efforts despite the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control point and a drone in the Lyptsi area and cleared a block in the urban area of Vovchansk. Олег Синєгубов also reports on civilian casualties and damage in Kupiansk and Blahodativka, and damage in Iziumskyi and Bohodukhivskyi districts due to Russian shelling and drone attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian intelligence intercept reports Russians complaining about the army's inability to defend the territory and significant losses in a unit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian Defense Forces completely destroyed the Russian radio-technical plant "Strela" in Bryansk Oblast according to satellite images.
Bashkortostan (Russia): Regional authorities acknowledged the deaths of five thousand residents who fought in the war through commemorative events, indicating significant casualties from this region.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Valuyki): Image shows activity on a road, relevant to monitoring movement in this Russian border region. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС links the death of a Russian military chaplain killed by a HIMARS strike to the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade which reportedly operates in the Kharkiv, Kursk, and Belgorod regions, suggesting HIMARS strikes in this broader area. ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
Odesa Port Area: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area.
Krasnyi Lyman Direction (Redkodub): "Сливочный каприз" claims Russian advances near Redkodub.
Southern Ukraine ("Yug Group of Forces responsibility"): MoD Russia claims Russian Su-25 aircraft conducted successful air strikes against enemy strongholds and manpower in this area. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
United Kingdom (London): RBC-Ukraine reported that a 47-year-old man was sentenced to nearly 11 years in London for spying for the Kremlin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides more details on the conviction of six Bulgarian citizens in the UK for spying for Russia, with the leader sentenced to over 10 years. RBC-Україна reports a large power outage has paralyzed the London Underground.
Turkey (Istanbul): Location of proposed peace talks.
Algeria (Algiers): Reported location of General Surovikin as head of a group of Russian military specialists.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Continued significant drone warfare on both sides. Russian forces are using UAVs for leaflet drops (Otradnoye) and kamikaze attacks on fiber optics (Kursk border region). Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down five Russian UAVs and destroyed Russian drone control points and logistical assets using drones. Ukrainian drone activity is also observed for surveillance ("fining" a jeep). Intense drone activity is reported around Dzerzhinsk from both sides (from earlier report). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming a Russian kamikaze drone attack on a house. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian UAVs (135) over the past day. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the "Pentagon" drone complex company is officially becoming a battalion of unmanned systems and is recruiting, highlighting the expansion of Ukrainian drone capabilities. ASTRA highlights Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones and their use in destroying Russian military assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control point and a drone in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones successfully targeted Russian occupiers in a tunnel. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down a large number of Ukrainian UAVs (135) over the past day. Олег Синєгубов reports on drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is targeting Ukrainian forces, including UAV launch points and EW antennas, in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for FPV drones for the Ukrainian military and discusses Russian FPV drone effectiveness on the Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Threat of Russian aviation activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast leading to an air raid alert. Increased activity at Russian aircraft production facilities (helicopters, Lancet drones) suggests a ramp-up in aerial asset availability (from earlier report). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb against alleged Ukrainian forces advancing on Tyotkino in the Kursk border region. MoD Russia claims Russian Su-25 aircraft conducted successful air strikes against enemy strongholds and manpower in southern Ukraine.
Missile Activity: Increased activity at Russian NPO Novator (missile production) and Volgograd Titan-Barrikady (potentially missile systems) suggests ongoing missile production (from earlier report). The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a US-made HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast. WarGonzo reported the death of a Russian military chaplain in the SVO zone due to a HIMARS strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reported the death of a Russian military chaplain killed by a HIMARS strike. Два майора discusses the potential use of "Molniya-2" missiles against ships. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 9 JDAM bombs and 2 HIMARS projectiles over the past day. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (Ukrainian source) and Оперативний ЗСУ also report the death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike, identifying his unit. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on the death, attributing it to a HIMARS strike.
Aviation Activity: Threat of Russian aviation activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast leading to an air raid alert. Increased activity at Russian aircraft production facilities (helicopters, Lancet drones) suggests a ramp-up in aerial asset availability (from earlier report). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb against alleged Ukrainian forces advancing on Tyotkino in the Kursk border region. MoD Russia claims Russian Su-25 aircraft conducted successful air strikes against enemy strongholds and manpower in southern Ukraine. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
Naval Activity: Russia's reiteration of its ambitious shipbuilding strategy highlights a long-term focus on enhancing naval capabilities (from earlier report). ASTRA highlights Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones and their use in destroying Russian military assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area. Два майора discusses the potential use of naval escorts for Russian merchant ships. РБК-Україна, citing EUobserver, reports that the EU will prohibit 25 Russian tankers from operating in the Baltic and North Seas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down five Russian UAVs, indicating ongoing air defense operations. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian UAVs (135), 9 JDAM bombs, and 2 HIMARS projectiles over the past day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv Oblast. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is targeting Ukrainian forces, including EW antennas, in border regions.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Negotiation and Ceasefire Discussions: Donald Trump's belief in a 30-day truce and potential travel to Istanbul remain a focal point (from earlier report). China has stated its position on the ceasefire idea (from earlier report). The EU has reportedly issued an ultimatum to Russia regarding a 30-day silence, with the Kremlin responding defiantly (from earlier report). A Russian military blogger expresses skepticism about the possibility of a ceasefire and emphasizes the continuation of fighting (from earlier report). President Zelenskyy spoke with Turkish President Erdogan to discuss key details of a potential meeting in Turkey to help end the war. Both leaders agree on the necessity of a ceasefire and the need for partners to monitor it. Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine's readiness for direct talks with Putin. TASS reported that the administration of Turkish President Erdogan considers the aspiration of Russia and Ukraine to resume direct talks "extremely important." A Russian military blogger (НгП раZVедка) expressed skepticism about the possibility of a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in Istanbul, viewing Zelenskyy as not an equal interlocutor. РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy discussed the Istanbul meeting with Erdogan. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on Zelenskyy's conversation with Erdogan regarding direct talks and ceasefire. Zelenskiy / Official reiterates his readiness for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, notes Russia's "very strange silence," and states President Trump fully supports the meeting and they would like him to be there. STERNENKO also reports on Zelenskyy's statement about being ready for direct talks with Putin. РБК-Україна reports, citing The Guardian, that European diplomats believe Trump's public stance on immediate peace talks influenced Zelenskyy to agree to talks with Putin to avoid offending Trump, hindering European plans for sanctions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports this from The Guardian. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential.
International Support for Ukraine: The EU is allocating an additional €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition (from earlier report). Taiwan will allocate $2 million for demining efforts (from earlier report). A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses regional recovery with support from the Office of the President and ministries (from earlier report). DeepState reported the creation of a specialized EU-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Task Force to accelerate the production of drones, missiles, and UAVs, with significant EU investment (€1 billion already, plus €900 million expected) funded by frozen Russian assets. The UK is planning further sanctions against individuals supporting the Russian invasion (from earlier report). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the EU will allocate an additional €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition procurement, increasing total support to Ukraine's defense industry to €3.3 billion. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an excavator for Ukrainian artillerymen.
Ukraine-US Relations: President Zelenskyy ratified an agreement with the US concerning minerals, aiming for economic partnership and recovery investment (from earlier report). Zelenskyy emphasized maintaining contact with the US during his call with Erdogan. Zelenskiy / Official states President Trump fully supports a meeting in Turkey and they would like him to be there. РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report, citing The Guardian, on Trump's influence on Zelenskyy's agreement to talks. Colonelcassad provides an analysis of future priorities for US SOF, suggesting a focus on creating regional problems for strategic adversaries.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast addresses regional recovery and support, involving various government levels (from earlier report). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has simplified passport processing for men aged 18-60 abroad, no longer requiring personal submission of military registration documents. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of defenders in the Volyn region. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, shares a video highlighting regional recovery and development efforts despite the conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on potential issues with Ukrainian mortar ammunition quality, citing a veteran and member of the Public Anti-Corruption Council at the Ministry of Defense. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share a video about the formation of the 8th Corps of the Air Assault Forces.
Internal Russian Issues: Regional authorities in Bashkortostan acknowledged significant military casualties (from earlier report). Ukrainian intelligence intercept reports complaints about the Russian army's inability to defend territory and significant losses in border areas (from earlier report). A Russian military blogger comments skeptically on negotiation prospects and emphasizes the continuation of fighting (from earlier report). News of a civilian providing a motorcycle to a Russian unit highlights volunteer support (from earlier report). Russia reiterates its ambitious naval shipbuilding strategy (from earlier report). Increased activity at Russian defense plants indicates a significant ramp-up in military production across various sectors (aircraft, explosives, artillery) (from earlier report). "Humanitarian Aid Omsk" and "Народная милиция ДНР" report on civilian and organized support for Russian military units. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reported that authorities in Bashkortostan acknowledged the deaths of five thousand residents who fought in the war. Глеб Никитин reported on close cooperation with Belarus. A Russian military blogger (НгП раZVедка) expressed a hardline stance on negotiations and viewed Ukrainian leadership as not equal. TASS reported on Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova's statement discrediting European unity. Два майора discussed potential responses to EU maritime sanctions. WarGonzo and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС report the death of Russian military chaplain Antoniy Savchenko. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники discusses the possibility of Putin attending negotiations in Turkey. Fighterbomber comments on the trustworthiness of a military blogger ("Filatov"). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, claims a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022. ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow and a resident unhappy with Wagner symbols in a Victory Day parade. Colonelcassad shares photos reportedly showing General Surovikin in Algeria as head of a group of Russian military specialists. АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade. Alex Parker Returns shares photos with commentary on the appearance of a Russian figure. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol. Kotsnews reports that several military bloggers are semi-finalists in a political leadership contest. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential.
Russia-Belarus Relations: Глеб Никитин reported on close cooperation with Belarus and the planned opening of a Belarusian Consulate General.
UK-Russia Relations: RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the conviction and sentencing of individuals in the UK for spying for Russia. RBC-Україна, citing EUobserver, reports that the EU will prohibit 25 Russian tankers from operating in the Baltic and North Seas, which impacts Russian economic interests. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Turkey-Russia Relations: President Zelenskyy spoke with Turkish President Erdogan to discuss a potential meeting in Turkey for peace. TASS reported on Erdogan's administration stating the importance of resuming direct talks. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ also report on Zelenskyy's conversation with Erdogan. Zelenskiy / Official reiterates his readiness for a meeting in Turkey. Rybar reports on Erdogan's reaction to the PKK's self-dissolution, noting his satisfaction but also his statement that the decision should apply to all branches.
Internal UK Issues: RBC-Україна reports a large power outage has paralyzed the London Underground.
Turkey-PKK: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the self-dissolution of the PKK. Rybar reports on Erdogan's reaction and conditions regarding the self-dissolution of the PKK.
Italy-Russia Relations: РБК-Україна reports that the Italian Foreign Minister stated that all responsibility for peace lies with Putin.
Russia-Algeria Relations: Colonelcassad shares photos reportedly showing General Surovikin in Algeria as head of a group of Russian military specialists, highlighting military ties.
International Legal Developments: РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the ICAO Council has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Continued reports of security incidents. ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th. ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk who was unhappy with participants of the war in Ukraine with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade. ТАСС reports on the risks of talking to scammers even in jest.
Casualties due to Ukrainian Attacks: ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces continue offensive operations, utilizing a high volume of artillery (including MLRS) and kamikaze drones. Employing aviation strikes with guided bombs (including ODAB-1500). Engaging Ukrainian forces across numerous sectors with significant numbers of assaults. Actively engaged in military vehicle repair and maintenance. Russian military bloggers demonstrate the tactical use of drones for probing enemy defenses before engaging with artillery and showcase archival footage of Russian drone strikes. Commemorating the 11th anniversary of the DPR as part of broader political and informational efforts. Utilizing UAVs in attacks on Kyiv Oblast. Utilizing drones in attacks on Belgorod Oblast. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1TS in occupied part of DNR. Russian military bloggers fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers. Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces liberated the Severny mine north of Chasiv Yar. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, claims a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022. Colonelcassad shares maps claiming Russian advances near Novoselka and Grodovka on the Pokrovsk direction and in the South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia shares a video with servicemen of the 137th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade speaking about the liberation of Lysovka. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Otvazhnye" are destroying enemy equipment near Pokrovsk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is effectively targeting Ukrainian forces in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy has started dropping star-shaped spikes. Kotsnews shares a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived a Ukrainian drone attack and a mine explosion. STERNENKO discusses Russian FPV drone effectiveness on the Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares photos reportedly showing General Surovikin in Algeria as head of a group of Russian military specialists. АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate with ties to the military. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions.
Domestic Policy: ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools. ТАСС reports on a proposal in the State Duma to include OSAGO in the cost of renting electric scooters. ТАСС reports that the head of the search and rescue squad "LisaAlert" discussed the risks to children found alone on the streets. Новости Москвы reports on impending cold weather, rain, and wet snow in Moscow.
Information Operations: Russian military bloggers (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ) continue to engage in information operations, providing analysis of the situation, promoting narratives about negotiations and Ukrainian violations, sharing motivational content, and commemorating the DPR anniversary. Филолог в засаде shares links to military-historical content related to WWII, suggesting potential lessons relevant to the current conflict and highlighting documentaries, which contributes to shaping historical narratives. WarGonzo commemorates the 11th anniversary of the referendum on self-determination in the DPR. ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade. ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe. Кotsnews shared historical information regarding the first military commandant of Berlin in April 1945. TASS reported that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that European unity lies in the legalization of drugs, impunity, and the immorality of political regimes. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported that a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb was used and claims it was used against alleged Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad shared video claiming to show an attack on enemy positions in Sumy Oblast by "Rusich" army. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video claiming to show a Mavic drone strike and evacuation on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming to show the repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk during the ceasefire. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video questioning the whereabouts of "doubles." Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET is promoting content framed around Russian forces returning to work after the ceasefire. Colonelcassad shares a sarcastic commentary on a Ukrainian nationalist's statement about space colonization. WarGonzo analyzes the India-Pakistan conflict. Стрелков Игорь Иванович provides a pessimistic assessment of upcoming negotiations. ТАСС reports that the Minister of Agriculture in Yakutia apologizing for "unworthy gifts" to veterans. ASTRA reports on a controversy involving a porn actor's photo on a Victory Day mosaic. STERNENKO comments on Pavel Gubarev's call for mutiny. НгП раZVедка expresses skepticism about negotiations and uses derogatory language towards Ukrainian leadership. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming a Russian kamikaze drone attack on a house where Ukrainian soldiers were allegedly hiding. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared the Russian Ministry of Defense's daily briefing with claimed Ukrainian losses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники discusses the possibility of Putin attending negotiations in Turkey from a perspective hoping for an end to the conflict. Fighterbomber comments on the trustworthiness of a military blogger, highlighting potential internal disagreements or concerns within the Russian information space. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports from The Guardian, framing Trump as disrupting European plans to sanction Russia. Kotsnews shares a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived. АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade. Alex Parker Returns shares photos with commentary on the appearance of a Russian figure. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol. Kotsnews reports that several military bloggers are semi-finalists in a political leadership contest. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce for Ukrainian military recovery.
Public Support for the Military: Fundraising efforts continue. «Зона СВО» shares a motivational photo and caption. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of Russian soldiers repairing their vehicles, highlighting ongoing logistical and maintenance activities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is selling backpacks with VDV logos, indicating ongoing support and merchandising efforts. ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade. ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe, potentially aimed at galvanizing public support against perceived external threats. АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate with ties to the military.
Social Issues: ТАСС reports that the head of the search and rescue squad "LisaAlert" discussed the risks to children found alone on the streets.
Industrial Capacity: An infographic indicates a significant increase in production at Russian defense plants since 2022 across aircraft, explosives, and artillery sectors (from earlier report). This points to a substantial military-industrial capacity and efforts to sustain the conflict. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, claims a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022.
Naval Strategy: Russia's reiteration of its ambitious shipbuilding strategy emphasizes a long-term focus on strengthening its naval power (from earlier report). Два майора discusses the potential use of naval escorts for Russian merchant ships. РБК-Україна, citing EUobserver, reports that the EU will prohibit 25 Russian tankers from operating in the Baltic and North Seas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Veteran Support Issues: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front. ТАСС reports on the Minister of Agriculture in Yakutia apologizing for "unworthy gifts" to veterans. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate who is the widow of a deceased Russian soldier and actively supports the front.
International Legal Recognition: РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the ICAO Council has recognized Russia as responsible for the downing of MH17.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA reports that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast on May 8th and 9th (previous). Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine (from earlier report). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling today, including a fatality. Олег Синєгубов reports on civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian shelling and drone attacks. ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast.
Military Support (Ukraine): The EU is allocating an additional €900 million for weapons and ammunition (from earlier report). Taiwan is allocating $2 million for demining efforts (from earlier report). A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses regional recovery, which indirectly supports the overall Ukrainian effort (from earlier report). DeepState reported the creation of a specialized EU-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Task Force to accelerate the production of drones, missiles, and UAVs, with significant EU investment (€1 billion already, plus €900 million expected) funded by frozen Russian assets. ASTRA highlights Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones and their use in destroying Russian military assets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the expanding "Pentagon" drone unit is recruiting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on potential issues with Ukrainian mortar ammunition quality, which could impact support effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the EU will allocate an additional €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition procurement. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an excavator for Ukrainian artillerymen. STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for 3500 FPV drones for the Ukrainian military.
Military Support (Russia): Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front (from earlier report). "Humanitarian Aid Omsk" and "Народная милиция ДНР" report on civilian/volunteer support and delivery of household appliances to Russian military units. Colonelcassad reported on significant support provided to units of the "Vostok" group of forces, including drones, electronic warfare systems, vehicles, ground assault robots, and personal protective equipment, funded by subscribers and friends, and launched a new fundraising appeal for an assault infantry platoon. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate who actively supports the front.
Rehabilitation: A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses rehabilitation services for veterans (from earlier report).
Veteran Support Issues (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front. ТАСС reports on the Minister of Agriculture in Yakutia apologizing for "unworthy gifts" to veterans. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, supporting a candidate who is the widow of a deceased Russian soldier.
Support for Ukrainian POWs and Families: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported a meeting with families of defenders in the Volyn region to discuss prisoner exchanges, missing persons procedures, and communication with official structures.
Humanitarian Impact (Russian Areas): ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Continuing offensive operations and significant aerial strikes across multiple fronts, including border regions. Utilizing a range of assets including guided aerial bombs (UMPK, FABs, including FAB-3000, ODAB-1500), "Geran/Gerbera" drones, FPV drones, artillery, and MLRS/OTRK. Claiming high numbers of Ukrainian ceasefire violations and successful repulsion of border penetration attempts. Conducting extensive information operations to control the narrative. Experiencing losses of military production capacity due to Ukrainian deep strikes (Basalt plant, Shcheglovsky Val - from earlier report), but claiming significant increases in other production (aircraft, explosives, artillery). Facing ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks and potential cross-border activity. Reports of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast (previous reports) and now claimed near Redkodub, Horlivka, Vovchansk, Novoselka, and Grodovka. Relying on volunteer support for some equipment. Increasing production of aircraft, explosives, and artillery. Pursuing a long-term strategy to strengthen naval power. Utilizing "Anvar" system for reconnaissance and strike in border regions. Employing star-shaped spikes as a new tactic. Featuring soldier survival stories for propaganda. Potentially restructuring some forces (8th Corps of Air Assault Forces formation by Ukraine is a counter-development). Highlighting ties with other countries (Algeria). Using media events for propaganda (gifting car to "Pyatnashka" brigade). "Humanitarian Aid Omsk" and "Народная милиция ДНР" report on civilian/volunteer support for Russian military units.The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a US-made HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast and a large number of Ukrainian UAVs, JDAM bombs, and HIMARS projectiles."Сливочный каприз" claims Russian advances near Redkodub, and reports active combat near Horlivka and claimed Russian advances north of Druzhba, and positional combat near Dzerzhinsk with Ukrainian forward positions under Russian fire.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming a Russian kamikaze drone attack on a house.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb in the Kursk border region.Colonelcassad reported on significant support provided to units of the "Vostok" group of forces, including drones, electronic warfare systems, vehicles, ground assault robots, and personal protective equipment, and launched a new fundraising appeal for an assault infantry platoon.Два майора discusses the potential use of naval escorts for Russian merchant ships.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control point and a drone in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv Oblast, and cleared a block in Vovchansk."Сливочный каприз" reports positional combat near Dzerzhinsk (Fomikha) with Ukrainian forward positions under Russian fire.MoD Russia claims Russian Su-25 aircraft conducted successful air strikes against enemy strongholds and manpower in southern Ukraine.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, claims a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022 across aircraft, explosives, and artillery sectors.Colonelcassad shares maps claiming Russian advances near Novoselka and Grodovka on the Pokrovsk direction and in the South Donetsk direction, indicating recent changes in territorial control.MoD Russia shares a video with servicemen of the 137th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade speaking about the liberation of Lysovka.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Otvazhnye" are destroying enemy equipment and personnel near Pokrovsk.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is effectively targeting Ukrainian forces in border regions of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy has started dropping star-shaped spikes.Kotsnews shares a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived a Ukrainian drone attack and a mine explosion.STERNENKO discusses Russian FPV drone effectiveness on the Donetsk direction.Colonelcassad shares photos reportedly showing General Surovikin in Algeria as head of a group of Russian military specialists.АSTRA shares a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions.
Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive operations, resisting numerous Russian assaults across multiple axes. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian drones and aircraft. Conducting strikes on enemy personnel and equipment concentrations, artillery, radar stations, and other important objects. Providing updated estimates of Russian losses. Potentially deploying elite drone units. Continuing fundraising efforts. Actively commemorating fallen soldiers. Demonstrating tactical medical preparedness. Highlighting Russian casualties. Reporting on Russian activity and casualties in specific oblasts. Improving medical rehabilitation facilities. Conducting targeted strikes on individuals associated with Russian-installed administrations. Liberated a forest area near Lyptsi. Conducting special operations in the enemy rear. Training territorial defense forces. Pursuing legal accountability for war crimes. Engaging with the Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of Prisoners of War. Training military personnel in tactical medicine. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling. Claiming destruction of Russian equipment. Hosting European leaders. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Calling for a ceasefire. Restructuring and enhancing airborne capabilities (8th Corps). Utilizing FPV drones for tactical engagements in tunnels. Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down five Russian UAVs.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the "Pentagon" drone complex company is officially becoming a battalion of unmanned systems and is recruiting, highlighting the expansion of Ukrainian drone capabilities.ASTRA highlights Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones and their use in destroying Russian military assets.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reported the death of a Russian military chaplain killed by a HIMARS strike.The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported a meeting with families of defenders.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ share a video with a psychological operation message to Russian occupiers.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the simplification of passport processing for men abroad.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on potential issues with Ukrainian mortar ammunition quality, citing a veteran and member of the Public Anti-Corruption Council at the Ministry of Defense.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones successfully targeted Russian occupiers in a tunnel.Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports the death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike, identifying his unit.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control point and a drone in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv Oblast, and cleared a block in Vovchansk.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an excavator for Ukrainian artillerymen.STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for 3500 FPV drones for the Ukrainian military and discusses Russian FPV drone effectiveness on the Donetsk direction.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share a video about the formation of the 8th Corps of the Air Assault Forces.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions, with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions.
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the self-dissolution of the PKK, disbanding its structure and ceasing armed struggle. This is a significant development for this non-state actor.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The ongoing diplomatic discussions around a ceasefire and potential negotiations, while significant, are not immediately translating into a reduction in hostilities on the ground or in the air. The differing conditions for talks and Russia's defiant response to ultimatums indicate that a diplomatic breakthrough remains challenging (from earlier report). President Zelenskyy's call with Turkish President Erdogan confirms the continued diplomatic push for a meeting in Turkey and a ceasefire, with both leaders agreeing on the necessity of a ceasefire. Zelenskyy's reiterated readiness for direct talks with Putin is a significant statement. The report from Erdogan's administration further emphasizes Turkey's mediating role. The skepticism from a Russian military blogger (НгП раZVедка) regarding a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting highlights the hardline stance within some Russian circles and the potential difficulties in achieving a breakthrough. Zelenskiy / Official's reiteration of his readiness for direct talks in Turkey, coupled with his comment on Russia's "very strange silence," suggests Ukraine is actively pursuing the diplomatic avenue despite the lack of immediate reciprocity from Moscow. The reported support for this meeting from President Trump further adds weight to this diplomatic push. The reports from The Guardian, suggesting Trump's influence on Zelenskyy's decision to agree to talks, introduce a new dimension to the diplomatic strategy, highlighting potential external political factors at play. ТАСС reporting that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce to allow Kyiv to restore its military potential is a clear counter-narrative to Western diplomatic efforts.
The continued intense ground combat and reported advances by Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Dzerzhinsk (from earlier report) and now claimed near Redkodub, Horlivka, Vovchansk, Novoselka, and Grodovka, suggest that Russia remains focused on achieving territorial gains through military force despite diplomatic efforts. The high level of drone activity in these areas underscores the tactical importance of UAVs in shaping the battlefield. "Сливочный каприз" claiming Russian advances near Redkodub and reporting active combat near Horlivka and claimed Russian advances north of Druzhba indicates continued ground pressure in these directions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claims of Russian success in clearing a block in Vovchansk and destroying a Ukrainian drone control point also point to ongoing Russian offensive efforts and counter-drone tactics in the Kharkiv region. Colonelcassad's maps claiming Russian advances near Novoselka and Grodovka provide a visual representation of claimed territorial gains. MoD Russia reporting the liberation of Lysovka further supports the narrative of Russian advances in Donetsk. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны highlighting intense battles and destruction of Ukrainian equipment near Pokrovsk reinforces this picture. STERNENKO's discussion of Russian FPV drone effectiveness impacting Ukrainian logistics on the Donetsk direction provides a potential explanation for some of the claimed Russian tactical successes.
The consistent Russian use of aerial assets, including drones and the threat of aviation strikes, necessitates continued prioritization of air defense capabilities and strategies by Ukraine. The successful downing of Russian UAVs by Ukrainian forces is a positive indicator in this regard (from earlier report). The Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian UAVs, JDAM bombs, and HIMARS reinforces their narrative of successful air defense and countering Western military aid. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb against alleged Ukrainian forces advancing on Tyotkino in the Kursk border region, indicating the use of very heavy ordnance. Colonelcassad reported on significant support provided to units of the "Vostok" group of forces, including drones and electronic warfare systems, highlighting the importance of these assets in the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claims of destroying Ukrainian drones and a drone control point in the Lyptsi area also highlight the ongoing aerial contest. MoD Russia claiming successful air strikes in southern Ukraine with Su-25 aircraft indicates continued Russian air support for ground operations. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reporting activity of enemy tactical aviation on multiple directions confirms ongoing Russian aerial presence and threat. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming the "Anvar" system is effectively targeting Ukrainian forces, including UAV launch points and EW antennas, in border regions.
Russia's demonstrated ability and commitment to significantly increase military production across key sectors (aircraft, explosives, artillery) since 2022 is a critical strategic factor, indicating a capacity to sustain the conflict over a prolonged period (from earlier report). This has implications for long-term resource allocation and strategic planning for Ukraine and its allies. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, citing The Economist, claiming a sharp increase in military equipment production at key Russian defense plants since 2022 further reinforces this assessment.
The acknowledgement of substantial casualties by Russian regional authorities and the reported complaints about the Russian army's inability to defend its own territories, coupled with reports of significant losses and low morale in some units, could indicate potential vulnerabilities and challenges within the Russian military, particularly in border areas (from earlier report). This is valuable intelligence for Ukrainian strategic planning. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reported that authorities in Bashkortostan acknowledged the deaths of five thousand residents who fought in the war. WarGonzo and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reporting the death of a Russian military chaplain killed by a HIMARS strike highlights the human cost and potential targeting of key personnel. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" and Оперативний ЗСУ also reporting the death of the Russian chaplain, identifying his unit, adds further confirmation and potential intelligence value regarding the unit's location/activity. Kotsnews sharing a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived is a propaganda effort to counter narratives of heavy losses.
Ukraine's ratification of the minerals agreement with the US is a strategic move to bolster its economic resilience and potentially leverage its natural resources for post-conflict recovery and development, reinforcing its long-term strategic position (from earlier report).
International financial and military support for Ukraine, including the EU's allocation of funds from frozen Russian assets and Taiwan's support for demining, remains a crucial strategic factor in enabling Ukraine to continue its defense and address the consequences of the conflict (from earlier report). DeepState reported the creation of a specialized EU-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Task Force to accelerate the production of drones, missiles, and UAVs, with significant EU investment (€1 billion already, plus €900 million expected) funded by frozen Russian assets. This is a significant strategic development for Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting the EU allocation of an additional €900 million for weapons and ammunition further emphasizes the scale of this support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС fundraising for an excavator highlights ongoing specific support needs.
Ukraine's efforts to address the humanitarian and social consequences of the conflict in affected regions, as highlighted by the meeting in Kharkiv Oblast, are strategically important for maintaining civilian well-being, stability, and the long-term recovery of the country (from earlier report). The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reporting a meeting with families of defenders highlights ongoing efforts to support those affected by captivity, which is crucial for morale and social stability. Олег Синєгубов, head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, sharing a video highlighting regional recovery and development efforts reinforces this strategic priority.
The continued use of information operations by both sides, including Russian leaflet drops and Ukrainian psychological operations, underscores the importance of the information domain in influencing morale, public opinion, and international perceptions (from earlier report). Kotsnews sharing historical information on the Berlin occupation and Alex Parker Returns sharing propaganda comparing Zelenskyy and Hitler are examples of Russian information operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS sharing a humorous drone video is an example of Ukrainian psychological operations. TASS reporting on Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova's statement discrediting European unity is another example of Russian information operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ sharing a video with a psychological operation message to Russian occupiers is a clear example of this tactic. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reporting from The Guardian, framing Trump as disrupting European plans to sanction Russia, is an example of Russian information operations leveraging external sources. TASS reporting that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the West is seeking a 30-day truce for Ukrainian military recovery is a counter-narrative. Kotsnews sharing a video and story featuring a Russian soldier who reportedly survived is a propaganda effort. АSTRA sharing a video from the Russian TV show "Pole Chudes" where a car was gifted to soldiers of the "Pyatnashka" brigade is a clear propaganda effort. Alex Parker Returns shares photos with commentary on the appearance of a Russian figure, which can be interpreted as political commentary. Старше Эдды comments on local elections in Sevastopol, which is part of the political landscape in occupied territories. Kotsnews reporting that several military bloggers are semi-finalists in a political leadership contest highlights the role of these individuals in shaping the information space and potentially entering the political sphere.
The simplification of passport processing for Ukrainian men aged 18-60 abroad is a strategic decision related to mobilization and documentation, potentially aimed at addressing challenges with military registration for this demographic.
The report of a man sentenced in London for spying for the Kremlin highlights ongoing Russian intelligence activities in Western countries and the importance of counter-intelligence for national security. The detailed report on the conviction of six individuals provides more specific information on the scale and nature of this activity.
The discussion within Russian military blogging circles regarding potential responses to EU maritime sanctions and the need for naval escorts reflects strategic considerations regarding the protection of Russian economic interests and potential escalation at sea. РБК-Україна, citing EUobserver, reports that the EU will prohibit 25 Russian tankers from operating in the Baltic and North Seas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZA reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers. These are significant economic pressure tactics impacting Russia's naval and economic strategies.
The expansion of the Ukrainian "Pentagon" drone unit into a battalion underscores the growing importance and strategic investment in Ukrainian drone capabilities, which is a key element of their warfighting strategy. ASTRA highlighting Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones further emphasizes this. STERNENKO highlighting the need and fundraising for FPV drones further emphasizes the tactical importance of these
