Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 16:26 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational picture remains dynamic, marked by intense ground fighting, particularly on the Donetsk and Kharkiv axes, and continued aerial and drone activity. The diplomatic landscape is significantly influenced by discussions around a potential ceasefire and negotiations, with Donald Trump's commentary and potential involvement in an Istanbul meeting being a focal point. Internal Russian issues, including social challenges and security incidents, continue to be reported. Ukraine is actively seeking international support and working to bolster its defense capabilities and address internal matters like public health and recruitment. The latest updates provide more specific details on the ongoing military engagements in various sectors, highlight new developments in diplomatic efforts and international relations, and offer further insights into internal situations in both Russia and Ukraine. New information also highlights reported attacks on civilian infrastructure in several oblasts and claims of Ukrainian success in targeting Russian assets. A significant development is the potential de-escalation of the India-Pakistan border conflict. Recent additional messages reinforce the intensity of fighting in various directions, confirm continued drone activity, and provide further insight into diplomatic discussions and internal Russian affairs.
Key updates from the latest messages include:
Continued Intense Ground Combat (Donetsk and other directions): The Ukrainian General Staff reports ongoing fighting across multiple sectors, with specific numbers of Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk direction (36), Kramatorsk direction (3), Toretsk direction (5), Novopavlivka direction (2), Orikhiv direction (5), Siversk direction (3), Kupyansk direction (repelled attacks near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Dvorichna, Fyholivka, Zapadne, Zahryzove, Lozova, and Kolisnykivka), and Dnipro direction (1 unsuccessful attempt). Z комитет + карта СВО provides maps showing the situation on the Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Dzerzhinsk, and Toretsk directions, indicating areas of control and defensive structures.Воин DV details the "battle for Bohater" on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming Russian control over a third of the village.Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances west of Makeevka (Luhansk direction).Colonelcassad reports the capture of a significant fortified area north of Toretsk that had not been taken since 2022.Два майора reports on fighting on the Krasnolimansky direction.MoD Russia claims successful use of FPV drones in the South Donetsk direction.
Reported Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure:🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Russian shelling and drone attacks on Nikopol district, damaging two private houses and an outbuilding, but with no casualties.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report Russian shelling of a multi-story building in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, causing civilian casualties and damage.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a civilian fatality in Dnepryany (Kherson Oblast) due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements.Два майора reports a 5-year-old child was injured by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast.ТАСС also reports on the child's injury.Рыбарь claims a civilian died in Званном and two were injured during evacuation from Гуево due to alleged Ukrainian attacks.Рыбарь claims a drone attacked an ambulance in Новая Збурьевка during the ceasefire.Военкор Котенок commemorates the anniversary of a Ukrainian missile strike on a residential building in Belgorod, claiming 17 civilian deaths.Два майора reports a civilian woman was injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on a car in Belgorod district.Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.
Diplomatic Activity and Ceasefire Discussions:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Donald Trump is considering traveling to Istanbul for a potential meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives and believes Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire.РБК-Україна and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also report Trump's belief that Russia will agree to a ceasefire.РБК-Україна shares political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko's assessment that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Istanbul is unlikely but not impossible, potentially influenced by Trump.Alex Parker Returns comments on Trump's consideration of Istanbul, questioning the venue.Рыбарь reports on a phone call between Turkish President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin where Erdoğan emphasized that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks, potentially resuming in Istanbul.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports on the Erdoğan-Putin call and Türkiye's support for Istanbul as a negotiation venue.РБК-Україна provides a summary of world reactions to Putin's stance on negotiations, highlighting the outrage caused by his proposal to talk before a ceasefire.ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Colonelcassad report that Peskov stated Russia will not agree to the presence of European "peacekeepers" in Ukraine and reiterated Russia's stance against NATO infrastructure near its borders, while claiming Russia has never refused peace talks.Оперативний ЗСУ highlights that Trump's statement that Ukraine should immediately start peace talks with Russia puts European plans for pressure on Russia at risk, according to The Guardian.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy has stated he supports Trump's idea of a complete and unconditional ceasefire and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.РБК-Україна reports an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official told Politico that Zelenskyy's 2022 decree on the impossibility of negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks and that the President decides when and with whom to speak, implying the ban is no longer absolute.
Internal Russian Issues:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the extension of Sergey Shoigu's contract as Secretary of the Security Council until 2030.Alex Parker Returns shares a disturbing report and video from Perm regarding the alleged discovery of a deceased 18-year-old girl with signs of violence after she reportedly encountered migrants in a bar, highlighting a potential internal social issue and alleged crime. Alex Parker Returns also comments on a Chechen individual being sent to pre-trial detention, linking it to potential shifts in authority during diplomatic engagements.АСТРА reports the death of Honored Artist of Russia Nina Grebeshkova.Colonelcassad provides clarification on potential Russian missile activities and capabilities, stating that "Oreshnik" launchers are in other areas with dozens of missiles ready, but the Kapustin Yar closure is for testing a new PRO system.Два майора highlights ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces, framing such efforts as patriotic and opposed by Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares a commercial message reflecting aspects of the Russian market and potentially the impact of sanctions.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a promotional message for a service that helps users bypass internet blocking, highlighting internet restrictions within Russia. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also reports a proposed bill in the State Duma to prevent wives from claiming military payouts during divorce, aimed at combating fake marriages.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares archived video from 2024, likely used for propaganda purposes to frame past Ukrainian actions and potentially warn about future intentions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also reports on the alleged new Russian "Banderol" cruise missile.ТАСС reports that Russian Ambassador to Warsaw Andreev stated in an interview that Polish authorities are not presenting any evidence to support their accusations of Russian involvement in sabotage acts in Poland.Два майора shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier, likely used for propaganda. Два майора also reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court for alleged terrorism against civilians in Kursk Oblast.ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th, highlighting internal dissent and security measures.Север.Реалии reports on the increase in convictions for "rehabilitation of Nazism" in Russia, viewing it as an instrument of control and repression. Север.Реалии also reports a cadet in St. Petersburg was sentenced for murder, allegedly motivated by mistaking a hearing aid for a spy device.ASTRA reports that political prisoner Alexey Gorinov wrote a pacifist letter for May 9th, criticizing Victory Day celebrations and the war, highlighting internal dissent.ASTRA reports that the "governor" of annexed Sevastopol canceled theater performances due to the director's anti-war stance.ТАСС reports a court has arrested an individual accused of attacking a traffic police detail in Makhachkala, Dagestan.ASTRA reports that Governor Gladkov of Belgorod Oblast stated some residents are intentionally exposing their cars to shelling for compensation and demanding evacuation for new housing at state expense, highlighting social issues and potential abuses of assistance programs.Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the construction of a district in Grozny named after Vladimir Putin, emphasizing progress and dismissing criticism, highlighting internal political dynamics and propaganda.WarGonzo reports General Sergey Surovikin ("General Armageddon") was seen meeting with military leadership in Algeria, described as the "head of a group of Russian military specialists in Algeria."
Ukrainian Military Actions and Capabilities:Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими announces registration is open for the third "Tomorrow Summer Camp & School" program in England for Ukrainian children.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo and commentary comparing historical Ukrainian resistance with the current conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports military expert Hetman believes Russia is preparing a massive strike with possible use of "Oreshnik," urging people to ignore air raid alerts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports on the alleged new Russian "Banderol" cruise missile.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an upcoming business meeting focusing on privatization and property leasing under martial law, indicating efforts to stimulate economic activity and recovery.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming that a reconnaissance and strike group of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) destroyed a Russian UAV crew in Hola Prystan (Kherson Oblast) on May 10th and offers a counter-narrative to anticipated Russian information operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports enemy FPV drones detected in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukraine and the EU have established a Task Force for expanding cooperation between the Ukrainian and European defense industrial complexes. Оперативний ЗСУ also reiterates the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses.STERNENKO shares a video claiming that soldiers of the 1039th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment destroyed three "Lancet" drones in one day. STERNENKO also reiterates the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports estimated total Russian combat losses since the beginning of the year (over 6,000 artillery systems) and over the past year and a half (over 19,000 artillery systems). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ also reports 155 combat engagements over the past day, with high intensity on the Pokrovsk direction.Олександр Вілкул reports on the situation in Nikopol district, including shelling and drone attacks, and details efforts to develop medicine in Kryvyi Rih, including equipping shelters in hospitals. Олександр Вілкул also reiterates the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses.РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification by the Rada of an agreement on minerals with the US. РБК-Україна also reiterates the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses. РБК-Україна also reports an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official told Politico that Zelenskyy's 2022 decree on the impossibility of negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks and that the President decides when and with whom to speak, implying the ban is no longer absolute.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a decrease in animal rabies cases in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification of the agreement on minerals with the US. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports Ukraine is actively recruiting AI specialists into the Armed Forces.STERNENKO reports on the detention of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) priest in Zakarpattia for displaying Soviet symbols. STERNENKO also reiterates the SBU claim of uncovering a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast.РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO report that the SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast.КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno provides further details on the alleged Hungarian network.Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a change in command for the Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports on training exercises of the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade destroyed an African mercenary near Kupyansk.
Indian-Pakistan Relations:ТАСС reports that India and Pakistan will consider withdrawing troops on their borders.Colonelcassad reports that India has officially stated it will not launch new strikes on Pakistan if Pakistan refrains from striking India, and negotiations for de-escalation and troop withdrawal are ongoing, aiming to return to a frozen conflict state.РБК-Україна reports that Israel is asking the ICC to withdraw arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant and suspend investigations in Gaza.WarGonzo promotes a book about Pakistan.
Loss of Russian Military Personnel:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the tragic death of a Russian military chaplain, Father Antony Savchenko, on May 12, 2025, due to a HIMARS strike in the SVO zone.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition also reports the death of Father Antony Savchenko, stating it is the seventh clergyman lost in the conflict.
Infrastructure Incident in Moscow:Новости Москвы reports a hot water pipe burst on Pavel Andreeva Street. This is a domestic incident not directly related to the conflict.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (South Donetsk direction, Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction, Konstantinovka direction, Pokrovsk direction, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Siversk, Dobropillia, Bohater): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. MoD Russia claims successful use of FPV drones in the South Donetsk direction and destruction of two Ukrainian UAV control posts in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction.Два майора reports a captured Ukrainian soldier was taken on the Konstantinovka direction.Z комитет + карта СВО provides maps showing the situation on the Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Dzerzhinsk, and Toretsk directions.Воин DV details the "battle for Bohater" on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming Russian control over a third of the village. Воин DV also shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators of the 29th Combined Arms Army are destroying Ukrainian personnel on the Southern Donetsk direction.Colonelcassad reports the capture of a significant fortified area north of Toretsk.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports numerous Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk (36), Kramatorsk (3), Toretsk (5), Novopavlivka (2), Orikhiv (5), and Siversk (3) directions and 155 combat engagements over the past day.Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports enemy FPV drones detected in Dobropillia.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk direction, Vovchansk): Intense fighting continues. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian "decision-making center" near Kupyansk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade destroyed an African mercenary near Kupyansk.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming that Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk.Z комитет + карта СВО claims Russian advances near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Dvorichna, Fyholivka, Zapadne, Zahryzove, Lozova, and Kolisnykivka in the Kupyansk direction.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports repelled attacks in the Kupyansk direction and one attack repelled near Vovchansk.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming Russian FPV drone operators are destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel on the Kharkiv direction.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a Russian signalman on a communications tower here defended himself against a Ukrainian kamikaze drone.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an upcoming business meeting here focusing on privatization and leasing.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a decrease in animal rabies cases.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Khomutovka, Rylsk, Zvannoye):АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares archived video from 2024 related to alleged Ukrainian offensive preparations in this direction.Два майора reports a 5-year-old child was injured by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka. Два майора also reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court for alleged terrorism against civilians in Любимовка and Вишневка.ТАСС also reports on the child's injury.Рыбарь claims a civilian died in Званном and two were injured during evacuation from Гуево due to alleged Ukrainian attacks.Рыбарь claims a drone destroyed a monument in Belovsky district.ASTRA reports that Governor Gladkov stated some residents are intentionally exposing their cars to shelling.ASTRA and WarGonzo report a missile strike on Rylsk, injuring three people and damaging infrastructure.Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS system near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, which allegedly struck Rylsk.
Sumy Oblast (Nahornivka):РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guards destroyed Russian positions in the Sumy direction.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports shelling of settlements in Sumy Oblast.Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS system near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, which allegedly struck Rylsk.
Kherson Oblast (Hola Prystan, Korabelnyi district, Dnepryany, Nova Kakhovka, Новая Збурьевка):Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 claims Ukrainian SSO destroyed a Russian UAV crew here on May 10th.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report Russian shelling of a multi-story building in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, causing civilian casualties and damage.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a civilian fatality in Dnepryany due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shares a story about a dog and evacuation difficulties from Novohrodivka, highlighting the dangers of civilian movement under fire.Рыбарь claims a drone attacked an ambulance in Новая Збурьевка.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports threat of Russian attack UAVs in Kherson Oblast.
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace remains closed for testing a new anti-missile defense system.
Dagestan (Russia) (Makhachkala):ТАСС reports an arrest related to an attack on a traffic police detail here.
Great Britain (Durham): Location for a Ukrainian educational program for children.
Chechen Republic (Russia) (Grozny):Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the construction of a district named after Vladimir Putin.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novomykolaivka, Nikopol district, Pokrovska, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Chervonohryhorivska громади):🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Russian shelling and drone attacks here, damaging houses. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) also echoes Zelenskyy's statement regarding the Istanbul meeting.Военкор Котенок and WarGonzo claim Russian units are assaulting Novomykolaivka near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Олександр Вілкул reports on the situation in Nikopol district and medical development efforts in Kryvyi Rih.
St. Petersburg (Russia):Север.Реалии reports on the sentencing of a cadet for murder.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Krasny Oktyabr - Bessonovka road):Два майора reports a civilian woman was injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on a car in Belgorod district. Два майора also reports further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.Военкор Котенок commemorates the anniversary of a Ukrainian missile strike on a residential building in Belgorod.ASTRA reports that Governor Gladkov stated some residents are intentionally exposing their cars to shelling.
Sevastopol (Occupied Crimea):ASTRA reports the cancellation of theater performances.
Zakarpattia Oblast (Ukraine):STERNENKO reports on the detention of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church priest.РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO report the SBU claim of uncovering a Hungarian military intelligence agent network here.
Luhansk Oblast (Makeevka):Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances west of Makeevka.
Sudan (Port Sudan):Рыбарь reports on alleged UAV attacks on a Russian military base under construction, fuel depots, and the airport here.
Moscow (Russia):ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator.Новости Москвы reports a hot water pipe burst.
Rostov Oblast (Kamensk, near Rostov-on-Don):TASS reports that means of electronic warfare repelled a UAV attack on Kamensk.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники and Оперативний ЗСУ report the escape of 10 contractors, including former convicts, from a training ground near Rostov-on-Don.
Bryansk Oblast (Suzemka-Strachovo area):AV Bogomaz reports two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road.
Krasnodar Krai (Anapa):ASTRA reports patrols with loudspeakers on beaches restricting access due to sand cleaning.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Continued intense drone warfare on both sides. MoD Russia claims successful use of FPV drones in the South Donetsk and Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka directions, destroying Ukrainian vehicles and UAV control posts. MoD Russia also shares a video claiming destruction of AFU units near Bohater using Molniya UAVs with anti-tank mines.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 claims Ukrainian SSO destroyed a Russian UAV crew in Hola Prystan (Kherson Oblast) on May 10th. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports enemy FPV drones detected in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast.STERNENKO claims Ukrainian forces destroyed three "Lancet" drones.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a Russian signalman countered a Ukrainian kamikaze drone with a plank of wood and another was shot down with small arms fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guards destroyed Russian positions in the Sumy direction using drones.Два майора reports a 5-year-old child was injured by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast. Два майора reports a civilian woman was injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on a car in Belgorod district. Два майора also reports further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.Рыбарь claims a drone attacked an ambulance in Новая Збурьевка during the ceasefire and a drone destroyed a monument in Belovsky district, Kursk Oblast. Рыбарь reports alleged UAV attacks on a Russian military base under construction, fuel depots, and the airport in Port Sudan.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian "decision-making center" near Kupyansk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade destroyed an African mercenary near Kupyansk.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using the "Groza Leska" FPV control system on fiber optics.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Russian drone attacks on Nikopol district.ТАСС reports that means of electronic warfare repelled a UAV attack on Kamensk, Rostov Oblast, with no casualties or damage. ТАСС reports that means of electronic warfare in DNR disrupted 230 aerial attacks by Ukrainian UAVs over large cities in the past week.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports threat of Russian attack UAVs in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Ukrainian GUR, reports that Russians have started launching a new cruise missile called "Banderol" from drones, allegedly assembled with foreign components.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports four Russian aviation strikes (KABs) in the Kursk direction.Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.
Missile Activity:Colonelcassad provides clarification on potential Russian missile activities, stating that "Oreshnik" launchers are in other areas with dozens of missiles ready, but the Kapustin Yar closure is for testing a new PRO system.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports military expert Hetman believes Russia is preparing a massive strike with possible use of "Oreshnik," urging people to ignore air raid alerts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports on the alleged new Russian "Banderol" cruise missile launched from drones.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the tragic death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike.Военкор Котенок commemorates the anniversary of a Ukrainian missile strike on a residential building in Belgorod.ASTRA and WarGonzo report a missile strike on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast, injuring three people.Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claim Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS system near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, which allegedly struck Rylsk.
Aviation Activity:Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports four Russian aviation strikes (KABs) in the Kursk direction.Два майора reports on the work of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) on the Krasnolimansky direction.Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.Воин DV shares a video claiming Su-34 crews are striking Ukrainian positions near Temirovka.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions and launches of KABs on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported in the latest messages regarding Ukraine. Рыбарь reports alleged UAV attacks on a Russian military base under construction, fuel depots, and the airport in Port Sudan.РБК-Україна, citing Ukrainian Navy data, reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in both the Black and Azov Seas.
Air Defense Activity:STERNENKO claims Ukrainian forces destroyed three "Lancet" drones.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a Russian signalman's actions and small arms fire countered Ukrainian drones in Zaporizhzhia.Colonelcassad reports the Kapustin Yar airspace closure is for testing a new anti-missile defense (PRO) system.TASS reports that means of electronic warfare repelled a UAV attack on Kamensk, Rostov Oblast, with no casualties or damage. ТАСС reports that means of electronic warfare in DNR disrupted 230 aerial attacks by Ukrainian UAVs over large cities in the past week.
Artillery and MLRS Activity:Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports significant Russian artillery losses since the beginning of the year and over the past year and a half.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 134 artillery shellings, including seven from MLRS, in the Kursk direction and around 3500 shellings across the front line over the past day.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Russian artillery shelling on Nikopol district.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report Russian shelling of a multi-story building in Kherson.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports civilian fatality in Dnepryany (Kherson Oblast) due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the tragic death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike.З комитет + карта СВО's maps indicate ongoing artillery activity in the Konstantinovka direction.Два майора reports further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.AV Bogomaz reports two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road in Bryansk Oblast.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Discussion surrounding a potential meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul on May 15th continues, with Donald Trump reportedly considering attending and reiterating his belief that Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire.РБК-Україна and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also report Trump's belief.РБК-Україна shares political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko's assessment that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting is unlikely but not impossible, potentially influenced by Trump.Alex Parker Returns comments on Trump's consideration of Istanbul, questioning the venue.Рыбарь reports on a phone call between Turkish President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin where Erdoğan emphasized that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks, potentially resuming in Istanbul.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports on the Erdoğan-Putin call and Türkiye's support for Istanbul as a negotiation venue.РБК-Україна provides a summary of world reactions to Putin's stance on negotiations, highlighting the outrage caused by his proposal to talk before a ceasefire.ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Colonelcassad report that Peskov stated Russia will not agree to the presence of European "peacekeepers" in Ukraine and reiterated Russia's stance against NATO infrastructure near its borders, while claiming Russia has never refused peace talks.Оперативний ЗСУ highlights that Trump's statement that Ukraine should immediately start peace talks with Russia puts European plans for pressure on Russia at risk, according to The Guardian.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy has stated he supports Trump's idea of a complete and unconditional ceasefire and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.РБК-Україна reports an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official told Politico that Zelenskyy's 2022 decree on the impossibility of negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks and that the President decides when and with whom to speak, implying the ban is no longer absolute.
International Support for Ukraine:Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими announces a Ukrainian educational program for children in England supported by OneUkraine.Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine and the EU have established a Task Force for expanding cooperation between Ukrainian and European defense industrial complexes.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 highlights Ukrainian SSO activity and aims to minimize civilian casualties.STERNENKO highlights claimed Ukrainian success in countering drones and promotes fundraising.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports high Russian artillery losses.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an upcoming business meeting focusing on economic recovery.РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification by the Rada of an agreement on minerals with the US.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification of the agreement on minerals with the US.РБК-Україна reports that Israel is asking the ICC to withdraw arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant and suspend investigations in Gaza.РБК-Україна reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Ukraine with German Chancellor Merz and UK Foreign Minister Lammy, stating their shared goal is to end the war and that the US priority remains a ceasefire.РБК-Україна reports that UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will host EU foreign ministers today to discuss support for Ukraine and defense cooperation, potentially announcing further sanctions.Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates the upcoming meeting in the UK.
Russia-Poland Relations:ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Warsaw Andreev stated Poland is not presenting evidence for their sabotage accusations.ТАСС reports that Moscow may close the Polish consulate in Kaliningrad or Irkutsk in response to Warsaw's actions.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations in Istanbul continues, with differing conditions from each side. РБК-Україна shares political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko's analysis on the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy has stated he supports Trump's idea of a complete and unconditional ceasefire and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.РБК-Україна reports an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official told Politico that Zelenskyy's 2022 decree on the impossibility of negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks and that the President decides when and with whom to speak, implying the ban is no longer absolute.
Russian Internal Politics:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the extension of Sergey Shoigu's contract as Secretary of the Security Council until 2030.Alex Parker Returns reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Alex Parker Returns also comments on a Chechen individual being sent to pre-trial detention, linking it to potential shifts in authority during diplomatic engagements.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a promotional message for bypassing internet blocking, highlighting information control issues. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also reports a proposed bill in the State Duma to prevent wives from claiming military payouts during divorce.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares archived footage for propaganda purposes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also reports on the alleged new Russian "Banderol" cruise missile.ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Warsaw Andreev's statement regarding Polish allegations.Два майора shares a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier for propaganda. Два майора also reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court.ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow.Север.Реалии reports on the increase in convictions for "rehabilitation of Nazism" in Russia. Север.Реалии also reports a cadet in St. Petersburg was sentenced for murder.ASTRA reports that political prisoner Alexey Gorinov wrote a pacifist letter criticizing the war and Victory Day celebrations.ASTRA reports that the "governor" of annexed Sevastopol canceled theater performances.ТАСС reports a court has arrested an individual accused of attacking a traffic police detail in Makhachkala, Dagestan.ASTRA reports that Governor Gladkov of Belgorod Oblast stated some residents are intentionally exposing their cars to shelling.Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the construction of a district in Grozny named after Vladimir Putin, emphasizing progress and dismissing criticism.WarGonzo reports General Sergey Surovikin was seen in Algeria.
Ukraine's International Relations:Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими announces an educational program for children in England.Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine and the EU have established a Task Force for defense industry cooperation.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 highlights Ukrainian SSO activity and aims to minimize civilian casualties.STERNENKO highlights claimed Ukrainian success in countering drones and promotes fundraising.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports high Russian artillery losses, thanking Ukrainian soldiers for their effectiveness.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an upcoming business meeting focusing on economic recovery.РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification by the Rada of an agreement on minerals with the US.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification of the agreement on minerals with the US.РБК-Україна reports that Israel is asking the ICC to withdraw arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant and suspend investigations in Gaza.РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO report that the SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast.КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno provides further details on the alleged Hungarian network.TASS reports that Hungary canceled a meeting with Ukraine on national minorities issues due to this scandal.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy has stated he supports Trump's idea of a complete and unconditional ceasefire and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.РБК-Україна reports an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official told Politico that Zelenskyy's 2022 decree on the impossibility of negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks and that the President decides when and with whom to speak, implying the ban is no longer absolute.
India-Pakistan Conflict:ТАСС reports that India and Pakistan will consider withdrawing troops on their borders.Colonelcassad reports on negotiations for de-escalation and troop withdrawal, aiming to return to a frozen conflict state.WarGonzo promotes a book about Pakistan.
US-Russia Relations:Donald Trump reportedly considers attending the Istanbul meeting and reiterates his belief that Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire.РБК-Україна reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Ukraine with German Chancellor Merz and UK Foreign Minister Lammy, stating their shared goal is to end the war and that the US priority remains a ceasefire.
Turkey-Russia/Ukraine Relations: Potential location for a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives on May 15th. Рыбарь reports on a phone call between Turkish President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin where Erdoğan emphasized that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks, potentially resuming in Istanbul.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports on the Erdoğan-Putin call and Türkiye's support for Istanbul as a negotiation venue.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.
Internal Russian Social Issues:Alex Parker Returns reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. This highlights a potential social issue within Russia. ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow.Север.Реалии reports on the increase in convictions for "rehabilitation of Nazism" in Russia, viewing it as an instrument of control and repression. Север.Реалии also reports a cadet in St. Petersburg was sentenced for murder.ASTRA reports that political prisoner Alexey Gorinov wrote a pacifist letter criticizing the war and Victory Day celebrations.ASTRA reports that the "governor" of annexed Sevastopol canceled theater performances.ASTRA reports that Governor Gladkov of Belgorod Oblast stated some residents are intentionally exposing their cars to shelling.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a proposed bill in the State Duma to prevent wives from claiming military payouts during divorce, aimed at combating fake marriages.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations:РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO report that the SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast.КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno provides further details on the alleged Hungarian network.TASS reports that Hungary canceled a meeting with Ukraine on national minorities issues due to this scandal.
Israel-ICC Relations:РБК-Україна reports that Israel is asking the ICC to withdraw arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant and suspend investigations in Gaza.
Algeria-Russia Relations:WarGonzo reports General Sergey Surovikin ("General Armageddon") was seen meeting with military leadership in Algeria, described as the "head of a group of Russian military specialists in Algeria." This suggests potential military cooperation between Russia and Algeria.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security:ASTRA reports patrols with loudspeakers on beaches in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, restricting access due to sand cleaning.TASS reports that means of electronic warfare repelled a UAV attack on Kamensk, Rostov Oblast, with no casualties or damage.TASS reports that means of electronic warfare in DNR disrupted 230 aerial attacks by Ukrainian UAVs over large cities in the past week.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Investigative Committee will investigate the legality of citizenship for parents of migrant children detained in Obninsk for allegedly trampling a St. George ribbon.Два майора reports on a child injured by shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks. Два майора also reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court for alleged terrorism against civilians in Kursk Oblast.AV Bogomaz reports two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road in Bryansk Oblast.Север.Реалии reports that the State Duma will consider a bill allowing property arrest for emigrants who commit administrative offenses deemed "against Russia's interests."Alex Parker Returns also comments on a Chechen individual being sent to pre-trial detention, linking it to potential shifts in authority during diplomatic engagements.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники and Оперативний ЗСУ report the escape of 10 contractors, including former convicts, from a training ground near Rostov-on-Don.
Legal Developments:Новости Москвы reports a proposal in the State Duma to revoke driving licenses for up to two years and impose fines for obstructing ambulances.TASS reports the detention of the Minister of Transport of Buryatia on corruption charges.TASS reports the government supported banning collectors linked to unfriendly countries, with the document requiring further work.TASS reports on an incident involving comedian Danila Poperechny (labeled a foreign agent) owing communal payments.Север.Реалии reports that the State Duma will consider a bill allowing property arrest for emigrants who commit administrative offenses deemed "against Russia's interests," including discrediting the army and spreading fakes. Север.Реалии also reports a cadet in St. Petersburg was sentenced for murder.ASTRA reports on the completion of the investigation and the case going to court for Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov, charged with receiving a large bribe.Два майора reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a proposed bill in the State Duma to prevent wives from claiming military payouts during divorce.
Economic Issues:Новости Москвы reports that prices for new buildings in the Prospekt Vernadskogo area of Moscow have doubled in April compared to March.ТАСС reports that the Russian government extended tax and insurance premium deferrals for entrepreneurs in Kursk Oblast for a year.Басурин о главном shares a commercial message reflecting aspects of the Russian market and potentially the impact of sanctions.
Information Operations:Rybar provides a video summary of the SVO, claiming extensive Ukrainian ceasefire violations and Russian advances, and a video summary of the Middle East crisis and Asia-Pacific tensions.Colonelcassad and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comment on Zelenskyy's planned visit to Istanbul, portraying it skeptically. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that guardsmen of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade restored a Soviet monument in Bulavinovka, linking the current conflict to historical narratives. Colonelcassad also comments on the results of the India-Pakistan conflict.Kotsnews also comments on Zelenskyy's visit, calling it a "game." Kotsnews also shares a video claiming Russian "Rubikon" testing center personnel are intercepting Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.Басурин о главном shares a Russian narrative claiming that the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice stated that property can be seized from those who evade mobilization, framing it negatively. Басурин о главном also shares a historical note on Yakov Gakkel, an engineer. Басурин о главном also discusses the Russian shipbuilding strategy.ASTRA reports patrols with loudspeakers on beaches in Anapa restricting access due to sand cleaning, which could be used in information operations.ТАСС reports on a three-day ceasefire in LPR border territories allegedly being violated by Ukrainian shelling, causing civilian casualties, serving to justify Russian actions.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Investigative Committee will investigate the legality of citizenship for parents of migrant children detained in Obninsk for allegedly trampling a St. George ribbon, highlighting a nationalist narrative. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos with patriotic captions and a video announcing a quiz with a prize of a chevron, and conducts a fundraiser for a drone and signal amplifier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shares a story about a dog and evacuation difficulties from Novohrodivka, highlighting the dangers of civilian movement under fire.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video claiming Russian special forces destroyed a Ukrainian tank and captured over 10 soldiers and a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS system. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Рыбарь promote a documentary film about Putin and the Kremlin.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares archived footage related to alleged Ukrainian offensive preparations in the Kursk direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also reports on the alleged new Russian "Banderol" cruise missile.Воин DV shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are destroying Ukrainian personnel and Su-34 crews are striking Ukrainian positions.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian FPV drones destroyed an African mercenary. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares an interview with a Ukrainian soldier discussing challenges with TCC recruitment.Два майора shares a video commenting on the Macron napkin incident, framed skeptically. Два майора also reports a 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a promotional message for bypassing internet blocking. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also reports a proposed bill in the State Duma to prevent wives from claiming military payouts during divorce.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on Russia's second conscription of Ukrainians in occupied territories. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports enemy FPV drones detected in Dobropillia.
Military Commemoration:Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that guardsmen of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade restored a Soviet monument in Bulavinovka.Два майора shares a video featuring a song dedicated to the 27 million Soviet losses in WWII.Военкор Котенок commemorates the anniversary of a Ukrainian missile strike on a residential building in Belgorod.WarGonzo reports General Sergey Surovikin was seen at a Victory Day related event in Algeria.
Public Support for the Military:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos with patriotic captions and a video announcing a quiz with a prize of a chevron, and conducts a fundraiser for a drone and signal amplifier.
Civilian Casualties (Russian territory):ASTRA and WarGonzo report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.AV Bogomaz reports two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road in Bryansk Oblast.TASS reports civilian casualties in LPR border territories due to alleged Ukrainian shelling.
Personnel Issues:МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники and Оперативний ЗСУ report the escape of 10 contractors, including former convicts, from a training ground near Rostov-on-Don.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine):Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is conducting a fundraiser for medical equipment for doctors to treat soldiers. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also is fundraising for drones.STERNENKO is conducting a fundraiser for drones.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України are fundraising for the Air Assault Forces.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an upcoming business meeting focusing on economic recovery.РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification by the Rada of an agreement on minerals with the US.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification of the agreement on minerals with the US.РБК-Україна reports that UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will host EU foreign ministers today to discuss support for Ukraine and defense cooperation, potentially announcing further sanctions.
Training (Ukraine):Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України report a ceremony for the dedication of sergeants at combined training courses for squad commanders of the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України also report on training exercises of the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment.
Medical Support:Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is conducting a fundraiser for medical equipment for doctors to treat soldiers.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) thanks nurses and paramedics for their work. Олександр Вілкул details efforts to develop medicine in Kryvyi Rih, including equipping shelters in hospitals.
Recruitment (Ukraine):БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares an interview with a Ukrainian soldier discussing challenges with TCC recruitment.Басурин о главном shares a Russian narrative claiming that the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice stated that property can be seized from those who evade mobilization.МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники provides information on their bot for questions about mobilization and searching for missing persons.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on Russia's second conscription of Ukrainians in occupied territories.Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is actively recruiting AI specialists into the Armed Forces.
Casualty Reports:The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day as 1170 personnel and significant equipment losses.РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ reiterate these figures.ASTRA and WarGonzo report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports two women injured in Pavlivka, Vasylivka district, due to Russian shelling.Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.AV Bogomaz reports two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road in Bryansk Oblast.TASS reports civilian casualties in LPR border territories due to alleged Ukrainian shelling.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the tragic death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition also reports the death of Father Antony Savchenko, stating it is the seventh clergyman lost in the conflict.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report Russian shelling of a multi-story building in Kherson, causing civilian casualties and damage.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports civilian fatality in Dnepryany (Kherson Oblast).
Humanitarian Situation:Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими announces a Ukrainian educational program for children in England.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Russian shelling and drone attacks on Nikopol district, damaging houses but with no casualties.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report Russian shelling of a multi-story building in Kherson, causing civilian casualties and damage.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports civilian fatality in Dnepryany (Kherson Oblast). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also shares a story about a dog and evacuation difficulties from Novohrodivka, highlighting the dangers of civilian movement under fire.Два майора reports a 5-year-old child injured by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast. Два майора reports a civilian woman injured by a Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod district. Два майора also reports further civilian injuries in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast due to Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks.Рыбарь claims a civilian died and two were injured during evacuation from Гуево due to alleged Ukrainian attacks. Рыбарь claims a drone attacked an ambulance in Новая Збурьевка during the ceasefire.ASTRA and WarGonzo report damage to a hotel in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to Russian strikes.РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report a Russian drone strike on a civilian cargo train in Donetsk Oblast.ASTRA reports patrols with loudspeakers on beaches in Anapa restricting access due to sand cleaning.Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Launched a large-scale drone attack (108 UAVs). Conducted aviation strikes (65 strikes, 125 KABs) and extensive artillery/MLRS shelling (around 3500 shellings). Employing FPV drones for targeting and attacks, including claims of using them with anti-tank mines near Bohater. Claiming advances in Lyman, Siversk, Dzerzhynsk, Pokrovsk, and Dnipropetrovsk directions. Repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. Utilizing electronic warfare systems to counter Ukrainian UAVs. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian tanks and HIMARS systems. Conducting conscription in occupied territories. Using tactical aviation on southeastern and northeastern directions. Recruiting individuals with criminal records. Utilizing a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. (ASTRA, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Воин DV, Воин DV, Kotsnews, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Forces: Repelling Russian assaults across multiple directions, with high intensity on the Pokrovsk direction. Successfully shot down 55 Russian drones. Utilizing FPV drones for targeting and destroying enemy equipment and personnel. Conducting military training, including for junior leadership and obstacle courses. Experiencing challenges with recruitment (as reported in one interview). Suffering personnel and equipment losses as reported by Russian sources. Claiming destruction of Russian personnel and equipment. Using drones to strike targets in Russian territory, including alleged attacks on civilians and infrastructure in border regions. Recruiting AI specialists. (ASTRA, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Басурин о главном, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Воин DV, Воин DV, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Kotsnews, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source)
Equipment: Extensive use of various types of drones (Shahed, FPV, reconnaissance, decoys) by both sides. Use of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery, and MLRS. Russian forces claiming destruction of Ukrainian tanks and HIMARS. Ukrainian forces claiming destruction of Russian personnel and equipment. Reports of a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. Ukrainian forces undergoing training with relevant equipment (implied by training report). Fundraisers for drones and medical equipment for Ukrainian forces. Development of new European self-propelled artillery systems (NEMESIS, PIRANHA AAC). (ASTRA, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Воин DV, Воин DV, Kotsnews, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Liveuamap Source, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Moldova: Previously reported facing internal political tensions with alleged efforts by President Maia Sandu to consolidate power.
United States:Donald Trump reportedly considers attending the Istanbul meeting and reiterates his belief that Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire.РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy approved the ratification by the Rada of an agreement on minerals with the US.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump's statement that Ukraine should immediately start peace talks with Russia puts European plans for pressure on Russia at risk, according to The Guardian.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy has stated he supports Trump's idea of a complete and unconditional ceasefire and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.РБК-Україна reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Ukraine with German Chancellor Merz and UK Foreign Minister Lammy, stating their shared goal is to end the war and that the US priority remains a ceasefire.
Poland: Previously reported closure of the Russian Consulate General in Krakow and potential border blockade by carriers. Facing Russian refutation of sabotage allegations. ТАСС reports that Moscow may close the Polish consulate in Kaliningrad or Irkutsk in response.
European Union:Оперативний ЗСУ reports establishment of a Task Force for expanding cooperation between Ukrainian and European defense industrial complexes.РБК-Україна reports that UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will host EU foreign ministers today to discuss support for Ukraine and defense cooperation, potentially announcing further sanctions.
Great Britain: Hosting a Ukrainian educational program for children. РБК-Україна reports that UK Foreign Minister David Lammy will host EU foreign ministers today to discuss support for Ukraine and defense cooperation, potentially announcing further sanctions.
Turkey: Potential location for a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives on May 15th. Рыбарь reports on a phone call between Turkish President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin where Erdoğan emphasized that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks, potentially resuming in Istanbul.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also reports on the Erdoğan-Putin call and Türkiye's support for Istanbul as a negotiation venue.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Zelenskyy is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey, hoping Trump can attend.STERNENKO and РБК-Україна also report Zelenskyy's statements.
India/Pakistan: Reports indicate a potential temporary de-escalation with negotiations for de-escalation and troop withdrawal ongoing. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь)
Hungary:РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO report that the SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast.КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno provides further details on the alleged Hungarian network.TASS reports that Hungary canceled a meeting with Ukraine on national minorities issues due to this scandal.
Israel:РБК-Україна reports that Israel is asking the ICC to withdraw arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant and suspend investigations in Gaza.
Algeria:WarGonzo reports General Sergey Surovikin ("General Armageddon") was seen meeting with military leadership in Algeria, described as the "head of a group of Russian military specialists in Algeria."
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The continued intensity of ground combat in Donetsk and other oblasts, coupled with Russian claims of advances and Ukrainian reports of numerous repelled assaults, highlights the ongoing strategic importance of territorial control in eastern and southern Ukraine. The capture of the fortified area north of Toretsk, if confirmed, represents a notable tactical success for Russian forces in a heavily defended sector, potentially opening new avenues for offensive operations. The high number of daily combat engagements reported by Ukraine underscores the sustained pressure on their defensive lines, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.
The ongoing diplomatic activity surrounding a potential ceasefire and negotiations in Istanbul, particularly with Donald Trump's reported consideration of attendance and his belief in a 30-day ceasefire, injects a significant new dimension into the strategic landscape. While the likelihood of a high-level meeting and a lasting ceasefire remains uncertain, these discussions indicate continued international efforts to find a path towards de-escalation, potentially influenced by external actors. Zelenskyy's public support for a ceasefire and direct talks, while hoping for Trump's presence, strategically positions Ukraine as open to a negotiated solution while seeking influential international backing. The reported clarification from a Ukrainian official that the 2022 decree on negotiating with Putin was aimed at preventing unofficial talks suggests a potential shift in Ukraine's stance, opening the door, however slightly, to the possibility of direct engagement. The differing stances on the ceasefire sequence (ceasefire first vs. negotiations first) remain a fundamental strategic obstacle, with Russia's rejection of European "peacekeepers" and continued hardline stance against NATO further complicating efforts.
Russia's extensive information operations, including leveraging archived footage, showcasing volunteer efforts, utilizing captured Ukrainian soldiers for propaganda, and promoting specific narratives around Victory Day and historical events, are a crucial element of their strategic approach. These efforts aim to shape narratives, bolster domestic support, and potentially influence international perceptions. Commemorating events like the anniversary of alleged Ukrainian missile strikes in Belgorod serves to frame Ukraine as the aggressor and justify Russian actions. Countering these narratives effectively is strategically important for Ukraine to maintain international support and domestic morale.
Internal Russian issues, such as reported social challenges (including potential ethnic tensions and crime as suggested by the Perm incident), security incidents (like the escape of contractors from a training ground and alleged police brutality), and dissent against the war (as seen in the political prisoner's letter), while seemingly domestic, can have strategic implications by potentially impacting domestic support for the conflict, influencing resource allocation, and highlighting potential vulnerabilities for the Russian leadership. The reported corruption case involving a high-ranking military official and the proposed bill regarding military payouts in divorces could point to internal issues within the Russian defense establishment and broader societal impacts of the conflict. The statement by Governor Gladkov regarding residents intentionally exposing their cars to shelling, while potentially anecdotal, highlights complex social and economic factors at play in border regions affected by the conflict. The reported sighting of General Surovikin in Algeria could signal Russia's efforts to strengthen military ties and expand its influence in Africa, a strategic move with potential implications for international alliances and resource access.
The establishment of the Ukraine-EU Task Force for defense industry cooperation is a significant strategic development aimed at integrating Ukraine into European defense structures and bolstering its long-term ability to produce and acquire military equipment. This represents a strategic commitment from the EU to support Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities. The development of new European self-propelled artillery systems, while not yet in the hands of Ukrainian forces, indicates a broader European effort to modernize its defense capabilities, which could eventually benefit Ukraine.
Ukraine's active recruitment of AI specialists signifies a strategic recognition of the increasing importance of advanced technology in modern warfare and an effort to leverage AI for military advantage. This long-term investment in technological capabilities has strategic implications for the future of the conflict.
The SBU's claim of uncovering a Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast, if substantiated, has significant implications for Ukraine's internal security and its diplomatic relations with Hungary, potentially impacting European unity regarding the conflict. The subsequent cancellation of a meeting on national minorities issues by Hungary further highlights the strategic impact of this alleged discovery on bilateral relations.
The potential de-escalation of the India-Pakistan border conflict, while a regional development, is strategically relevant as it could reduce geopolitical tensions in a key part of the world and potentially free up international attention and resources, although the direct impact on the Ukraine conflict is likely indirect.
The reported attacks on civilian infrastructure in several Ukrainian oblasts underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and raise concerns about potential violations of international law. Minimizing civilian casualties remains a critical ethical and strategic consideration for Ukraine, as highlighted by the Ukrainian SSO's claim of conducting detailed reconnaissance before striking targets in civilian areas. The reports of alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians in Russian border regions also highlight the complex and escalating nature of the conflict, with strategic implications for cross-border actions and international perceptions. The reported 17-year sentence for a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian court for alleged terrorism against civilians further emphasizes the legal and propaganda aspects of the conflict.
The tragic death of a Russian military chaplain due to a HIMARS strike highlights the risks faced by all personnel in the conflict zone and could have implications for morale and the role of religious figures in the military. The reporting of this as the seventh clergyman lost underscores the human cost extending beyond combat personnel.
The reported decrease in animal rabies cases in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while a domestic health issue, indicates successful efforts by Ukrainian authorities to maintain public health services and control disease outbreaks even in areas affected by the conflict, which is strategically important for maintaining civilian well-being and stability.
The reported use of a new Russian cruise missile, "Banderol," allegedly launched from drones and assembled with foreign components, suggests Russia is adapting its tactics and potentially circumventing sanctions to maintain its missile production capabilities. Identifying the components and their origin would be a priority for intelligence and counter-sanction efforts.
The reports of the escape of contractors, including former convicts, from a training ground near Rostov-on-Don highlight potential challenges for Russia in terms of personnel quality, motivation, and internal security within its military structures. This could have implications for the effectiveness of Russian units and potentially increase internal risks in areas near military facilities.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
