Sitrep 2025-05-12 13:57:04

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 13:56 UTC)

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly active across multiple fronts, with intense ground combat and significant aerial activity. Donetsk Oblast continues to be a focal point, with Russian forces claiming advances, including the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to gain fire control over a logistical hub. Ukrainian forces are actively defending and utilizing drone capabilities effectively. High levels of Russian aerial activity persist, with guided aerial bomb launches reported towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and tactical aviation operating in northeastern and southeastern directions. Both sides are extensively employing drones. Reports indicate Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and allegedly supplied by Western partners. DeepState reports continued Ukrainian drone activity in the Serebryanske forest area, targeting Russian positions. Butusov Plus shares video of successful Ukrainian drone strikes repelling a Russian assault near Novopil on the Novopavlivka direction.

Diplomatically, the situation surrounding potential ceasefire negotiations is highly tense. Germany has issued an ultimatum to Russia, demanding agreement to a 30-day ceasefire by the end of May 12th, or face new sanctions, potentially including measures against Nord Stream 2. Ukraine's Foreign Minister states that Russia is currently ignoring this proposal and continuing attacks, signaling a significant diplomatic impasse. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has explicitly rejected the ultimatum language as unacceptable for dialogue and stated Russia is open to negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions, effectively dismissing the proposed 30-day silence. Turkey has reiterated its readiness to mediate and host negotiations. Poland has accused Russian special services of involvement in a fire in Warsaw and has closed the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing sabotage, which is expected to lead to Russian reciprocal measures. Russia denies the Polish accusations regarding the Warsaw fire. Internal issues within Russia, including alleged corruption and dissent, continue to be reported. Ukraine emphasizes the importance of international support and is engaged in military communication exchanges with partners like the Czech Republic on countering disinformation. Ukraine's National Guard has reportedly received modernized MLRS "Grad" systems with German chassis and advanced features. The contract for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been extended for 5 years. Russia states it is open to a serious search for long-term settlement in Ukraine. Reports suggest ongoing discussions between the EU and Britain concerning expanded military cooperation, potentially forming a new military-political alliance. A temporary pause in the trade war between the US and China, including a 90-day truce and mutual tariff reductions, has been reported. Disturbing reports from Russian sources allege extreme internal security issues within the Russian military, including forced fights to the death among soldiers for disciplinary reasons. A court in Novosibirsk, Russia, has sentenced a man to 10 years in prison for allegedly committing sabotage (arson on railway infrastructure) for a reward, claiming contact with an unknown person via a messenger application. A medical worker in Odesa Oblast has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for state treason, accused of transmitting information about Ukrainian force locations and military infrastructure to Russian special services. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted that over 110,000 Ukrainian military personnel have received state awards during the full-scale war, emphasizing national bravery and the need to preserve achievements and memory. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status, highlighting potential social reintegration challenges for returning Russian soldiers. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families in Russia. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued training of young athletes in renovated sports facilities, indicating efforts to maintain civilian life and development despite the conflict.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast: Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian sources claim advances near Otradnoye and Bogatyr, citing map data. Russian Ministry of Defense and military bloggers claim the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and that Russian forces are pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming for fire control over Novopavlivka. Video is shared claiming to show the Russian flag in Kotlyarovka and the completed clearing of the settlement. There are also claims of Russian forces advancing near Novoselka, Shevchenko, Volnoye Pole, and Novopol in the South-Donetsk direction, supported by map data showing recent Russian gains (pink shaded areas) and current control (red shaded areas) of settlements like Novosilka, Skudne, Burlatske, Novyi Komar, Velika Novosilka, and Ravnopol. Ukrainian forces continue to engage Russian forces, with successful FPV drone strikes reported by Ukrainian airborne assault troops (77th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade) and the NGU "Khartiya" brigade. Russian artillery, including "Giatsint-B" howitzers, is actively engaged, with crews reportedly striking Ukrainian positions. Russian KAB launches are reported towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian military bloggers report ongoing positional battles near Bogatyr with Russian forces approaching residential areas and having advanced along the highway. Russian forces are reportedly continuing assaults on Malinovka and Myrolyubovka on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, and have reached the western bank of the Myrolyubovsky pond. Battles are also reported south of Malinovka and northwest of Yelizavetovka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 69 combat engagements across multiple directions as of 16:00 on May 12th. On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have made 29 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces in areas including Nova Poltavka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Andriivka, and towards Zorya and Popove Yar; 23 attacks have been repelled, with combat ongoing. Aviation strikes are reported on Poltavka and Pokrovsk. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy has attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses 11 times in areas including Konstantynopil, Bahatyr, Rozdolne, and Zelene Pole; battles continue. Butusov Plus shares video of successful Ukrainian drone strikes repelling a Russian assault near Novopil on the Novopavlivka direction. The enemy has also conducted 5 aviation strikes with 10 KABs and 161 artillery shellings, including 7 from MLRS on the Novopavlivka direction. Russian MoD claims that servicemen of a special operations unit as part of the Yug Group of Forces captured a large stronghold of the AFU near a settlement in Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. A military expert cited by TASS claims that the capture of Kotlyarovka allows for the start of the liberation of Krasnoarmeysk in the DNR. Басурин о главном reports a Russian claim of capturing a significant fortified area north of Toretsk, which they claim was held by Ukraine since 2022 and involves extensive underground fortifications, and highlights the strategic importance of crossing the Siversky Donets canal in this area. The report also mentions the Russian 4th Brigade operating towards Kostiantynivka. DeepState reports continued intense fighting in the Serebryanske forest area, with Ukrainian forces holding defenses and destroying Russian positions with drones.
Sumy Oblast: Subjected to guided aerial bomb launches from Russian tactical aviation. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces have started using new anti-personnel mines on this direction, describing their appearance and comparing them to reduced-size Soviet anti-tank mines, linking them to alleged Western supplies. Freezing temperatures are forecast for the morning of May 13th, with potential damage to crops. Russian KAB launches are reported towards Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that communities near Prokody, Oleksandrivka, Starykove, Bratenytsia, Marchykhyna Buda, and Slavhorod in Sumy Oblast were affected by enemy artillery and mortar fire, and Boyaro-Lezhachi was subjected to an airstrike. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Russian military bloggers highlight that a serviceman from a marine infantry regiment operating in the Kursk and Sumy directions has written a book about his experiences. Russian military bloggers report continued fighting despite the ceasefire and highlight the use of FABs and various drones in the area. Russian border guards are reportedly active. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces continue to attempt attacks on Tetkino. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces continue to attempt attacks on Tetkino from Sumy Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian aviation (VKS) are helping to repel enemy offensives on Tetkino in Kursk by conducting strikes with FAB-1500 guided aerial bombs.
Odesa Oblast (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi): Russian military bloggers' summary of recent strikes includes 3 strikes in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with claims of non-civilian targets based on increased activity of ambulances, military, and helicopters. A medical worker in Odesa Oblast has been sentenced to 15 years for state treason, accused of providing information about Ukrainian force locations and military infrastructure in Izmail district to the FSB, which the enemy used for planning and adjusting strikes in the Podunavya area. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the medical worker, identified as Georgiy Mykhailov, was a former paramedic who was recruited in April 2024 and tasked with gathering data for strikes on a port city, including bases of State Border Guard Service personnel and ships.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian regional administration in Zaporizhzhia highlights efforts to provide veterans with priority medical check-ups and treatment without queues. Russian forces are reported to have liberated Kotlyarovka, which is stated to be a step towards approaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing reciprocal long-range artillery fire on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Our aerial reconnaissance has detected a concentration of enemy personnel and equipment, after which a Grad crew struck the target, according to Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. The enemy continues to use Baba Yaga-type drones against our forward positions and mine the routes to them, and enemy FPV crews are also working on our positions, according to Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian drone operators daily identify enemy positions and strike them with FPV drones or artillery. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that active offensive actions are not being undertaken by their forces, but aviation and artillery strike enemy targets daily, including in Novodanylivka, Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, and other villages. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued training of young athletes in renovated sports facilities.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): Local official reports on the completion of a project to create three large, anti-radiation shelters with operating blocks in hospitals, funded by state and city budgets, emphasizing their strategic importance for the entire southern direction as a hospital base. Several other medical infrastructure projects are also underway. Russian forces are reported to have liberated Kotlyarovka, which is stated to be a step towards approaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Rivne Oblast: Russian military bloggers' summary of recent strikes includes a strike on a training ground here.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Russian military bloggers' summary of recent strikes includes 3 strikes here, including one on the village of Bugskoye, allegedly a site for unloading railway cars with ammunition and rockets.
Luhansk Oblast (Lugansk): A pro-Russian source shares a video highlighting significant reconstruction and economic development in Lugansk over the past three years since joining Russia, portraying it as a "sociological and economic miracle" and a reward for the defense of Donbas. ТАСС, citing military expert Andrey Marochko, claims Russian forces on the Luhansk border did not allow Ukrainian forces to break through their defense despite provocations and attempts to storm. On the Lyman direction (bordering Luhansk), the enemy attacked our defenders' positions 7 times in areas near Zelenyy Hay, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Torske, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, and towards Olhivka; 2 engagements are ongoing, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. On the Siversk direction (bordering Luhansk), the enemy conducted 5 offensive actions in areas near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka; one engagement is still ongoing, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. DeepState reports continued intense fighting in the Serebryanske forest area.
Romania: Rybar analyzes the upcoming second round of presidential elections, highlighting the key issue of geopolitical orientation (pro-European vs. Euroskeptic/neutral on the conflict) and the potential for increased "fear-mongering about the 'Russian threat'" in the final week.
Moscow: Increased seasonal tariffs for passenger cars on the M-11 highway are introduced. Moscow theaters are advertising upcoming performances.
Sevastopol: The governor announced the cancellation of performances by the Vakhtangov Theater due to the director's alleged anti-Russian statements and support for Ukraine, deeming it sacrilegious to show such performances in "the patriotic capital of Russia." This highlights efforts to control cultural content and enforce patriotic narratives.
Prague: A delegation from the Main Directorate of Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine visited Prague to share experiences in communication during the conflict and countering Russian disinformation with Czech military and MFA counterparts. Discussions focused on interacting with media, crisis communications, and information security.
Volgograd Oblast (Frolovo): Residents who complained about pollution from a local plant reportedly received threats after a video appeal to Putin and the head of the Investigative Committee was published. This highlights internal social issues and potential pressure on dissent.
Poland: Accused Russian special services of involvement in a fire at a shopping center in Warsaw in May 2024, leading to the closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow. Two Ukrainian citizens are allegedly accused of involvement and working for Russian special services. Russia denies the Polish accusations regarding the Warsaw fire and states an adequate response will be given to the closure of the consulate. There are reports of Poland announcing the start of a border blockade with Ukraine, citing discontent from Polish carriers over waiting times. РБК-Україна reports that two Ukrainians are suspected in Poland of setting fire to a shopping center in Warsaw and could have been working for Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Polish carriers' protest action has begun at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint, restricting truck movement.
Belarus (Mogilev): A video claims that teenagers who showed disrespect to Victory Day fireworks were identified by authorities and subjected to "educational measures." This highlights the importance of symbolic events and efforts to enforce patriotic behavior.
Novosibirsk Oblast (Russia): A court has sentenced a man to 10 years in prison for allegedly setting fire to a railway relay cabinet for $500, claiming he was in contact with an unknown person from Ukraine.
Horlivka: Water supply has been reduced by one hour due to an accident.
Perm (Russia): City police have stated that the death of an 18-year-old girl found impaled on a fence was an accident, ruling out foul play. TASS reports that a case has been initiated in Perm regarding the death of the girl found on a fence, and that according to internet information, she was allegedly pursued by foreign citizens who may have threatened her with sexual assault.
Chernihiv Oblast: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that communities near Arkhipivka and Klyusy were affected by enemy artillery and mortar fire.
Kharkiv Oblast: On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian defenders are repelling one enemy attack near Vovchansk, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. On the Kupyansk direction, the invading army conducted two attacks on Ukrainian positions in the directions of Pishchane and Novoosinove, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders are repelling two assault actions by Russian invaders who are trying to break through in the areas of Vasyukivka and Chasiv Yar, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled one attack by occupiers near Dyliivka, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Басурин о главном reports a Russian claim of capturing a significant fortified area north of Toretsk.
Kaluga Oblast (Russia) (Obninsk): Два майора reports that an investigation has begun into the desecration of symbols of Russian military glory in Obninsk by minors whose parents recently received Russian citizenship, highlighting internal security and social integration issues in Russia.
Chuvashia (Russia): ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status, highlighting potential social reintegration challenges.
Ugoria (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - Yugra) (Russia): Colonelcassad reports on a large-scale "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra, with over 280,000 participants, including a flypast with portraits of veterans on aircraft, emphasizing patriotic mobilization and the connection to historical narratives.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian Airborne Assault Troops report successfully striking ammunition depots, equipment, and personnel using FPV drones. The NGU "Khartiya" brigade reports stopping a Russian advance attempt with a drone. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines resembling lighters/small anti-tank mines on the Sumy direction, allegedly delivered by the West and used in a similar manner to "Lepestok" mines against civilians. Russian military bloggers claim fighters from the 14th Separate Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group of forces have shot down Ukrainian drones. A Russian source reports that part of the funds from merchandise sales was used to purchase 3 drones. Ukrainian mobile fire groups reportedly destroyed 4 "Shahed" drones near Kharkiv recently. Russia claims destroyed Ukrainian drones and a HIMARS in Sumy Oblast. Russian sources are promoting the development of new domestic electric motors for drones that can increase speed by 20-30%. Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army "Vostok" group claim to have destroyed two AGS, one SPG-9, and a surveillance camera on the Polozhsky direction. Russian marine infantry from the 61st separate guards brigade reportedly use drones to destroy enemy forces on the right bank of the Dnipro. Two Majora shares a video of UAV counter-action units of the 61st separate guards Kirkenes marine brigade destroying the enemy on the right bank of the Dnipro with UAVs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy continues to work with Baba Yaga-type drones against our forward positions and mine the routes to them, and enemy FPV crews are also working on our positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian drone operators daily identify enemy positions and strike them with FPV drones or artillery on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Colonelcassad shares an animated scheme of "Geran" (Shahed) strikes on Ukraine from May 11th-12th, stating that strikes resumed according to the usual scheme after the "ceasefire" ended. Russian military bloggers highlight that the expansion of the Alabuga plant is systematic and aimed at expanding production in general and drone production in particular, linking it to the increasing number and effectiveness of "Geran" strikes and the regular dozens of daily arrivals. It is not excluded that in the near future, in the next couple of weeks, a group of long-range drones may be launched there to try to inflict some damage on production, according to Colonelcassad. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a precise Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian vehicle, resulting in the detonation of ammunition and casualties. STERNENKO shares an image from a drone feed labeled "RUSORIZ BOMB ARMED," possibly indicating Ukrainian combat drone activity. DeepState reports continued Ukrainian drone activity in the Serebryanske forest area, targeting Russian positions. Butusov Plus shares video of successful Ukrainian drone strikes repelling a Russian assault near Novopil.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation is launching KABs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is also active in the southeastern direction with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian aviation (VKS) are helping to repel enemy offensives on Tetkino in Kursk by conducting strikes with FAB-1500 guided aerial bombs. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy has conducted 5 aviation strikes with 10 KABs, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Aviation strikes are reported on Poltavka and Pokrovsk, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast.
Missile Activity: Russian military bloggers' summary of recent strikes includes missile strikes on various Ukrainian oblasts. Russia claims destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS near Nagornovka, Sumy Oblast. Рыбарь shares an infographic from the Ukrainian GUR about a new Russian cruise missile under the code name "Banderoль" (Banderol), stating it is air-launched, developed by Kronstadt, has a warhead of about 50 kg, speed of 500-600 km/h, and a range of 500 km, with potential carriers being the "Orion" UAV and Mi-28 helicopters. The infographic also states the missile is assembled from components from China (engine), Japan (battery), and Russia ("Kometa"). Рыбарь highlights that the possibility of using this missile from UAVs and helicopters is something new globally and a huge step forward due to its lower cost compared to "Kalibrs" or Kh-101s and more potential carriers.
Aviation Activity: Activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the northeastern and southeastern directions, posing a threat of aviation weapon use to frontline regions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian aviation (VKS) are helping to repel enemy offensives on Tetkino in Kursk. The Ukrainian General Staff reports an airstrike on Boyaro-Lezhachi in Sumy Oblast. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy has conducted 5 aviation strikes, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Aviation strikes are reported on Poltavka and Pokrovsk, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported within the Ukraine conflict zone. A Russian serviceman from the Caspian Flotilla operating in the Kursk and Sumy directions has written a book about his experiences. Two Majora shares a video of UAV counter-action units of the 61st separate guards Kirkenes marine brigade destroying the enemy on the right bank of the Dnipro. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that a medical worker in Odesa Oblast, now sentenced for treason, transmitted information about the locations of State Border Guard Service ships to Russian special services.
Air Defense Activity: Russian military bloggers claim fighters from the 14th Separate Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group of forces have shot down Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian mobile fire groups reportedly destroyed 4 "Shahed" drones near Kharkiv recently. Russia claims destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS and Ukrainian drones in Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling enemy attacks on various directions.
Anti-Personnel Mines: Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, resembling lighters/small anti-tank mines. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy continues to mine the routes to our forward positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. ASTRA shares a photo of two soldiers carrying what appear to be mines, indicating ongoing mining activities.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ukraine-EU Relations: Germany has issued an ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire by the end of May 12th or face new sanctions, including potential measures against Nord Stream 2. Ukraine's Foreign Minister states Russia is currently ignoring the ceasefire proposal and continuing attacks. The European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base, with funds from frozen Russian assets, focusing on drone and missile production. There are reports of ongoing discussions between the EU and Britain regarding expanded military cooperation, potentially forming a new military-political alliance. ASTRA reports that the EU has threatened Russia with new sanctions if a ceasefire does not occur in the near future. A representative of the German government, Stefan Cornelius, is quoted by ASTRA as saying that time is running out and if a ceasefire is not reached by the end of the day (May 12th), the European side will begin preparing for sanctions. German Foreign Minister Johan Wadephul is quoted by ASTRA as saying that Germany will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine if a ceasefire is not introduced. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany is ready to support Ukraine on the issue of "long-range fire," implying that TAURUS missiles could be transferred if Russia refuses a ceasefire. РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from Great Britain, Germany, Poland, the USA, France, and the EU, stating that Russia does not want a ceasefire and continues attacks, and that they coordinated further peace efforts and sanctions and other steps that can be taken if Russia continues to reject a ceasefire and peace efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on French President Macron reiterating the ultimatum to Russia.
Russia-International Relations: Germany has issued an ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire by the end of May 12th or face new sanctions, including potential measures against Nord Stream 2. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has explicitly rejected the ultimatum language, stating it is unacceptable for dialogue with Russia and that Russia is open to negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions, effectively rejecting the proposed 30-day silence. Turkey has reiterated its readiness to mediate and host negotiations. Poland has accused Russian special services of involvement in a fire in Warsaw and has closed the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing sabotage, leading to expected reciprocal measures from Russia. Russia denies the Polish accusations regarding the Warsaw fire. Russia states it is ready for a serious search for long-term settlement in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu's contract has been extended for 5 years. There are reports of a temporary pause in the trade war between the US and China. Russia is preparing for negotiations with Malaysia. The president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, stated in an interview with TASS that Russia is right in everything regarding the special operation. TASS quotes Peskov stating that Putin's approach to finding a real solution to the Ukrainian crisis has been met with understanding and support from leaders of many countries. TASS quotes Peskov noting that Trump called on Kyiv to accept the proposed Russian meeting without any conditions. TASS quotes Peskov stating that Poland chooses hostility by closing the Russian Consulate General, causing damage to relations with Moscow. TASS quotes Peskov stating that Poland's accusations against Russia regarding the shopping center fire are groundless and are part of Warsaw's Russophobic position. TASS quotes Peskov stating that the Kremlin is preparing for Russian-Malaysian negotiations. ТАСС reports that the crew of the tanker Seven Pearls, including 19 Russian citizens, will be evacuated from Yemen within three to four days.
India-Pakistan Conflict: De-escalated with a US-mediated ceasefire reported previously. No new updates.
Information Operations: Russia continues to promote narratives about the conflict and internal issues. Poland's accusation of Russian involvement in sabotage in Warsaw and the closure of the consulate is a significant information point. Russia has responded with denials and threats of reciprocal measures. The showcasing of reconstruction in Lugansk by a pro-Russian source is part of an information operation to portray success in occupied territories. The cancellation of theater performances in Sevastopol and the governor's justification highlight efforts to control cultural content and enforce patriotic narratives. Russian military bloggers are actively disseminating information, including claims about Ukrainian tactics (new mines) and perceived Western involvement. The visit of the Ukrainian communication delegation to Prague and their discussions on countering Russian disinformation highlight Ukraine's efforts in the information domain. The report about the extension of Sergei Shoigu's contract could be an information point related to stability within the Russian leadership. The statement by Peskov about Russia being open to a serious search for settlement and its difficulty in being isolated are diplomatic statements likely intended for international consumption. Russian sources are claiming Ukrainian military personnel are being forced to fight to the death for disciplinary reasons. Russian sources are promoting the sentencing of an alleged saboteur in Novosibirsk as a success in combating Ukrainian-backed activities. Russian sources are presenting the statements by the president of Republika Srpska as international support for Russia's position. Russian sources are highlighting claims of past secret negotiations with Ukraine, suggesting Ukraine missed opportunities for better terms. Басурин о главном shares a post questioning the truthfulness of Zelenskyy's statements and highlighting his previous rejections of negotiations and ceasefires, framing it as evidence that Ukraine is not serious about peace. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message about negotiations in Istanbul, stating that Russia is interested in agreements at the level of "unconditional surrender" of Kyiv and is ready to fight further. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that the US understands it has not been able to do anything to Russia in three years, and Trump wants to exit the confrontation with minimal losses, playing the role of a good cop while Putin is the bad cop. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Europe and Kyiv actively interfere with the US and seek to drag Washington into the conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Putin acts very strongly and beautifully, ignoring attempts to impose a foreign game on him, and that Zelenskyy's statement about waiting for a ceasefire on May 12th and then going to Istanbul is incredibly absurd. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states there will be no ceasefire, and a designated delegation from Russia will go on Thursday (May 15th), implying the negotiations are only about Ukrainian surrender. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 suggests that past negotiations involved difficult Russian negotiators. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message quoting Ukrainian MP Honcharenko as stating that Russia and Ukraine have continuously negotiated throughout the "SVO" and that Putin always offered much better terms than now. Alex Parker Returns links this to previous claims about a "deal" in Qatar that allowed Ukraine to prepare for an offensive. РБК-Україна reports that the Kremlin brazenly responded to the ultimatums about a 30-day ceasefire. РБК-Україна quotes Peskov as saying that the language of ultimatums is unacceptable for Russia and that Russia is ready for negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions, thus effectively rejecting the proposal for a thirty-day silence. Оперативний ЗСУ comments on Peskov's statement, translating it as "there will be no ceasefire, capitulate in Istanbul" and citing ISW and The Times as reporting that Russia will talk about capitulation at the negotiations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also quotes Peskov stating that Russia is set on a serious search for ways for a long-term settlement in Ukraine, likely highlighting the contrast with his other statements about ultimatums. WarGonzo shares a post commemorating the 55th birthday of Olga "Korsa" Kachura, an artillery commander in the DNR, highlighting her role in the conflict and framing her as a hero who fought against "neo-Nazis" in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany is ready to support Ukraine on "long-range fire," likely a strategic leak or trial balloon for potential TAURUS transfers. Colonelcassad shares satellite imagery and commentary about the expansion of the Alabuga drone factory, promoting the narrative of increasing Russian drone production and effectiveness. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran's employment difficulties, which can be used in information operations by both sides. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for Russian servicemen, an information point highlighting state support. Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event, emphasizing patriotic mobilization and historical narratives. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares content critical of promoting war-disabled individuals as role models for children, suggesting internal dissent or alternative narratives.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: The preventive measure for MP Tyshchenko and former police officer Pisarenko has been changed from round-the-clock house arrest to night house arrest. Ukraine is engaged in military communication exchanges with the Czech Republic. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted that over 110,000 Ukrainian military personnel have received state awards during the full-scale war, emphasizing national bravery and the need to preserve achievements and memory. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a medical worker in Odesa Oblast has been sentenced to 15 years for state treason. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the sentencing of the medical worker for treason, specifying details of his recruitment and tasks. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on continued training of young athletes.
Internal Russian Issues: Alleged corruption is reported with the sentencing of a head of a branch of the Military Construction Company for bribery. Reports of residents in Volgograd Oblast receiving threats after complaining about pollution highlight internal social issues. The cancellation of theater performances in Sevastopol due to the director's alleged anti-Russian stance indicates efforts to control cultural content and enforce patriotic narratives. Russian military bloggers are reporting on various internal issues and promoting pro-Russian narratives. The contract for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been extended for 5 years. A court in Novosibirsk has sentenced a man to 10 years in prison for allegedly committing sabotage on railway infrastructure. There are concerning reports from Russian sources alleging extreme internal security issues within the Russian military, including forced fights to the death among soldiers for disciplinary reasons. The death of an 18-year-old girl impaled on a fence in Perm has been ruled an accident by local police. TASS reports that a case has been initiated in Perm regarding the death of the girl found on a fence, and that according to internet information, she was allegedly pursued by foreign citizens who may have threatened her with sexual assault. TASS reports that a bill will be submitted to the State Duma prohibiting the division of income received by a spouse for participation in the "SVO" during divorce proceedings for marriages concluded after February 24, 2022. Два майора comments on the extension of Shoigu's contract, sarcastically implying that even Shoigu cannot quit until the end of the "SVO". БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing alleged "gladiatorial fights" to the death between Russian soldiers in a pit, claiming they were forced by a commander for entertainment. Военкор Котенок shares a photo message about potential negotiations in Istanbul, stating that the positions of Moscow and Kyiv are opposite and that the talks may not happen. ТАСС reports that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation stated that the probability of raising the key rate remains, but it has decreased compared to March. Alex Parker Returns shares commercial content for replica brand clothing, which is not related to the military situation. Новости Москвы shares a photo message with a sarcastic comment about designers and reports on an incident in the Moscow metro where a drunk man fell on a woman, causing her a broken leg, stating that the injured woman was also intoxicated. Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the opening of a tennis school in Grozny, linking it to federal projects and commemorating Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov and Putin. Два майора reports that an investigation has begun into the desecration of symbols of Russian military glory in Obninsk by minors whose parents recently received Russian citizenship. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families. Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares content critical of promoting war-disabled individuals as role models for children. ТАСС reports on the sentencing of a former head of the traffic police in Stavropol for creating a criminal organization.
Turkey-Ukraine Relations: Turkey has reiterated its readiness to mediate and host negotiations for a settlement. Russia states it is open to negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions.
Turkey-Central Asia Relations: Rybar's analysis on Turkey's space cooperation with Central Asia was reported previously. No new updates.
Ukraine-US Relations: No significant new updates in the latest messages directly related to military aid or strategy. There are reports of a temporary pause in the trade war between the US and China. РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from the USA, among others.
Ceasefire Discussions: Germany has issued an ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire by the end of May 12th or face new sanctions. Ukraine's Foreign Minister states Russia is currently ignoring the ceasefire proposal and continuing attacks. Turkey has reiterated its readiness to mediate. Russia states it is ready for a serious search for long-term settlement in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has explicitly rejected the ultimatum language for dialogue with Russia and stated Russia is open to negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions. ASTRA reports that the EU has threatened Russia with new sanctions if a ceasefire does not occur in the near future. РБК-Україна reports that the Kremlin brazenly responded to the ultimatums about a 30-day ceasefire. Оперативний ЗСУ comments on Peskov's statement about ultimatums. STERNENKO quotes French President Macron stating that Moscow has until the evening and if Russia is serious about peace, they will agree to it, otherwise more sanctions should be imposed. РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating further peace efforts with international partners. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on French President Macron reiterating the ultimatum to Russia. STERNENKO reports on Peskov's statement rejecting the language of deadlines.
Germany-Ukraine Relations: Germany has issued an ultimatum to Russia regarding a ceasefire and potential sanctions. Germany is investing in Ukraine's defense industrial base. ASTRA reports on Germany's threat of new sanctions and continuation of arms supplies. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany is ready to support Ukraine on "long-range fire." РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from Germany, among others.
UK-Ukraine Relations: No significant new updates in the latest messages directly related to military aid or strategy. There are reports of ongoing discussions between the EU and Britain regarding expanded military cooperation, potentially forming a new military-political alliance. РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from Great Britain, among others.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Poland has accused Russian special services of involvement in a fire in Warsaw and has closed the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing sabotage. Two Ukrainian citizens are allegedly accused of involvement. The potential blockage of the Polish-Ukrainian border by Polish carriers was reported previously. There are reports of Poland announcing the start of a border blockade with Ukraine due to issues with Polish carriers. РБК-Україна reports that two Ukrainians are suspected in Poland of setting fire to a shopping center in Warsaw and could have been working for Russia. РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from Poland, among others. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Polish carriers' protest action has begun at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint, restricting truck movement.
Russia-Turkey Relations: Turkey has reiterated its readiness to mediate. Russia states it is open to negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions.
Russia-China Relations: There are reports of a temporary pause in the trade war between the US and China.
Russia-Malaysia Relations: The Kremlin is preparing for negotiations with Malaysia.
Russia-Other Countries: The president of Republika Srpska has stated Russia is right in everything regarding the special operation.
Belarus-Russia Relations: A video claims that teenagers in Mogilev, Belarus, who showed disrespect to Victory Day fireworks were subjected to "educational measures." This highlights Belarus's alignment with Russia in enforcing patriotic narratives.
US-China Relations: There are reports of a temporary pause in the trade war. Colonelcassad comments on the temporary pause in the trade war and its potential impact on oil prices, which were rising.
France-Ukraine Relations: STERNENKO quotes French President Macron stating that Moscow has until the evening to be serious about peace or face more sanctions, and that he will hold further talks with Zelenskyy and European leaders today. РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha discussed coordinating sanctions against the Russian Federation with colleagues from France, among others. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on French President Macron reiterating the ultimatum to Russia.
Russia-Bosnia and Herzegovina Relations: TASS reports that the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, stated that Russia is right in everything regarding the special operation.
Russia-Yemen Relations: ТАСС reports that the crew of the tanker Seven Pearls, including 19 Russian citizens, will be evacuated from Yemen.
Russia-India Relations: No new updates, previous reports noted military exchanges related to the India-Pakistan conflict.
Russia-Pakistan Relations: No new updates, previous reports noted military exchanges related to the India-Pakistan conflict.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Alleged involvement of Russian special services in a fire in Warsaw as accused by Poland. Reports of residents in Volgograd Oblast receiving threats after complaining about pollution. The contract for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been extended for 5 years. A court in Novosibirsk has sentenced a man to 10 years in prison for allegedly committing sabotage on railway infrastructure. There are concerning reports from Russian sources alleging extreme internal security issues within the Russian military, including forced fights to the death among soldiers for disciplinary reasons. The death of an 18-year-old girl impaled on a fence in Perm has been ruled an accident by local police. TASS reports that a case has been initiated in Perm regarding the death of the girl found on a fence, and that according to internet information, she was allegedly pursued by foreign citizens who may have threatened her with sexual assault. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing alleged "gladiatorial fights" to the death between Russian soldiers in a pit, claiming they were forced by a commander for entertainment. Новости Москвы reports on an incident in the Moscow metro where a drunk man fell on a woman, causing her a broken leg. Два майора reports that an investigation has begun into the desecration of symbols of Russian military glory in Obninsk by minors whose parents recently received Russian citizenship. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families. ТАСС reports on the sentencing of a former head of the traffic police in Stavropol for creating a criminal organization.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim advances and liberation of Kotlyarovka in Donetsk Oblast. Russian artillery is actively engaged. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. Russian sources are promoting the development of new domestic electric motors for drones. A Russian serviceman from the Caspian Flotilla has written a book about his experiences. Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army "Vostok" group claim to have destroyed two AGS, one SPG-9, and a surveillance camera on the Polozhsky direction. Russian marine infantry from the 61st separate guards brigade reportedly use drones to destroy enemy forces on the right bank of the Dnipro. There are concerning reports from Russian sources alleging extreme internal security issues within the Russian military, including forced fights to the death among soldiers for disciplinary reasons. Two Majora shares a video of UAV counter-action units of the 61st separate guards Kirkenes marine brigade destroying the enemy on the right bank of the Dnipro. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Russian aviation (VKS) are helping to repel enemy offensives on Tetkino in Kursk by conducting strikes with FAB-1500 guided aerial bombs. Басурин о главном shares a new episode of his program where he talks with the deputy commander of the "Sarmat" CSN brigade about red lines, captured Western military equipment, domestic EW systems, combat experience of UAV operators, the Victory Parade, and patriotic cinematography. MoD Russia claims that servicemen of a special operations unit as part of the Yug Group of Forces captured a large stronghold of the AFU near a settlement in Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. Рыбарь shares an infographic about a new Russian cruise missile "Banderoль" with a range of 500 km, potentially carried by "Orion" UAVs and Mi-28 helicopters, highlighting it as a new development with lower cost and more carriers than existing cruise missiles. Colonelcassad shares satellite images of the Alabuga SEZ, claiming that production is expanding, especially drone production, and that this is the reason for the increasing number and effectiveness of "Geran" strikes. Colonelcassad speculates that Ukraine may attempt long-range drone strikes on Alabuga in the near future. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian military actions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, including the use of Grad, FPV drones, and aviation/artillery strikes. Басурин о главном reports a Russian claim of capturing a significant fortified area north of Toretsk. Воин DV reports on Russian forces pushing forward and expanding control on the South-Donetsk direction. ASTRA shares a photo of two soldiers carrying what appear to be mines, indicating ongoing mining activities by likely Russian forces.
Civilian Casualties: No new reported civilian casualties in the latest messages, but previous reports highlight casualties in Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that communities in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts were affected by enemy artillery and mortar fire, and Boyaro-Lezhachi in Sumy Oblast was subjected to an airstrike. The death of an 18-year-old girl impaled on a fence in Perm has been ruled an accident by local police. TASS reports that a case has been initiated in Perm regarding the death of the girl found on a fence, and that according to internet information, she was allegedly pursued by foreign citizens who may have threatened her with sexual assault. Новости Москвы reports on an incident in the Moscow metro where a drunk man fell on a woman, causing her a broken leg.
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. The cancellation of theater performances in Sevastopol due to the director's alleged anti-Russian stance and the governor's justification highlight efforts to control cultural content and enforce patriotic narratives. Russian military bloggers are actively disseminating information to support pro-Russian narratives. The sentencing of an alleged saboteur in Novosibirsk is being used to promote the narrative of combating Ukrainian-backed activities. Два майора reports that an investigation has begun into the desecration of symbols of Russian military glory in Obninsk by minors whose parents recently received Russian citizenship.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: A Russian serviceman's book about his experiences is being promoted. The cancellation of theater performances in Sevastopol is related to the political interpretation of cultural content and its alignment with patriotic narratives. A video claims teenagers in Mogilev, Belarus, who showed disrespect to Victory Day fireworks were subjected to "educational measures." WarGonzo shares a post commemorating the 55th birthday of Olga "Korsa" Kachura, an artillery commander in the DNR, highlighting her role in the conflict and framing her as a hero. Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra, emphasizing patriotic mobilization and the connection to historical narratives. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares content critical of promoting war-disabled individuals as role models for children, suggesting internal dissent or alternative narratives.
Public Support for the Military: A Russian serviceman's book is being promoted. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment (drones). Басурин о главном shares a new episode of his program where he talks with the deputy commander of the "Sarmat" CSN brigade. Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the opening of a tennis school in Grozny, linking it to federal projects and commemorating Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov and Putin. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families. Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra, emphasizing patriotic mobilization and large public participation.
Logistical Challenges: No new reported logistical challenges in the latest messages, but previous reports highlight reliance on public fundraising for equipment. Water supply in Horlivka has been reduced due to an accident. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy continues to mine the routes to our forward positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Political Dynamics: Alleged corruption is reported with a sentencing for bribery. Reports of residents in Volgograd Oblast receiving threats after complaining about pollution highlight potential for political pressure and social issues. The cancellation of theater performances in Sevastopol is a political decision related to cultural control. The contract for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been extended for 5 years, which is a political decision related to leadership. Peskov's statements about Russia's openness to a serious search for settlement and its difficulty in being isolated are political statements. Peskov's rejection of the German ultimatum and openness to negotiations without preconditions is a significant political statement. TASS reports that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation stated that the probability of raising the key rate remains, but it has decreased compared to March. TASS reports that a bill will be submitted to the State Duma prohibiting the division of income received by a spouse for participation in the "SVO" during divorce proceedings for marriages concluded after February 24, 2022. Два майора comments on the extension of Shoigu's contract. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing alleged "gladiatorial fights" between Russian soldiers. Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the opening of a tennis school in Grozny, linking it to federal projects and commemorating Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov and Putin. Два майора reports that an investigation has begun into the desecration of symbols of Russian military glory in Obninsk by minors whose parents recently received Russian citizenship, highlighting political sensitivity surrounding symbols. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran's employment difficulties, which could have political implications. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families, a political measure. ТАСС reports on the sentencing of a former head of the traffic police in Stavropol for creating a criminal organization, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption.
International Influence: Russia states it is ready for a serious search for long-term settlement in Ukraine. The contract for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been extended for 5 years. The president of Republika Srpska's statement supporting Russia is being highlighted as international support. Russia is preparing for negotiations with Malaysia.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Reports of residents in Volgograd Oblast receiving threats after complaining about pollution highlight internal social issues. Water supply in Horlivka has been reduced by one hour due to an accident. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that communities in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts were affected by enemy artillery and mortar fire, and Boyaro-Lezhachi in Sumy Oblast was subjected to an airstrike. The death of an 18-year-old girl impaled on a fence in Perm has been ruled an accident by local police. TASS reports that a case has been initiated in Perm regarding the death of the girl found on a fence, and that according to internet information, she was allegedly pursued by foreign citizens who may have threatened her with sexual assault. Новости Москвы reports on an incident in the Moscow metro where a drunk man fell on a woman, causing her a broken leg. ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status, highlighting potential social reintegration challenges.
Military Support (Russia): Operation Z: Voenkor Rus Vesna previously reported that the discussion between President Putin and South Ossetian President Gagloev included the participation of approximately 1500 South Ossetian military personnel in the "special military operation," highlighting their contribution and sacrifice. Colonelcassad shares photos allegedly of captured Ukrainian drones as part of a trophy collection, which can be used for training, intelligence, or propaganda purposes. Воин DV shares a video highlighting the actions of Russian drone operators, serving to promote a specific military unit and tactic. Басурин о главном shares a new episode of his program where he talks with the deputy commander of the "Sarmat" CSN brigade about red lines, captured Western military equipment, domestic EW systems, combat experience of UAV operators, the Victory Parade, and patriotic cinematography. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families.
Support for Veterans and Families (Russia): ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status. ASTRA reports on proposed tax exemptions for participants of the conflict and their families in Russia, including exemption from transport and land taxes, aiming to expand aid.
Cultural Support (Russia): Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra, including a flypast with portraits of veterans on aircraft. Kadyrov_95 shares a video about the opening of a tennis school in Grozny, linking it to federal projects and commemorating Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov and Putin.
Military Commemoration (Russia): Colonelcassad reports on a large "Immortal Regiment" event in Yugra, emphasizing the commemoration of veterans of past conflicts.
Social Integration (Russia): ASTRA reports on a Russian veteran of the conflict claiming to be refused employment due to his veteran status, highlighting potential social integration challenges.
Support for Civilians (Ukraine): The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports continued training of young athletes in renovated sports facilities, indicating efforts to maintain civilian life and development.
Military Personnel Recognition (Ukraine): Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted that over 110,000 Ukrainian military personnel have received state awards during the full-scale war.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Utilizing drones for targeting, reconnaissance, and potentially strike missions, with real-time tracking data highlighting their widespread deployment across numerous oblasts and specific warnings issued for key cities. Engaging in combat activities despite Russian claims of a ceasefire, as evidenced by the large number of alleged violations reported by Russian sources and the report of shelling in the DNR. Potential operational activity targeting the left bank of the Dnipro and areas near Izium and Kupiansk. Reports of shelling in the DNR, resulting in a civilian fatality, indicate Ukrainian artillery or MLRS activity in the area. The Ukrainian Air Force is issuing warnings about Russian drone activity in various regions, indicating efforts to track and potentially counter UAVs. Ukrainian forces are reported to be using new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Troops and the NGU "Khartiya" brigade are effectively using FPV drones in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling numerous Russian assaults on multiple directions. A medical worker in Odesa Oblast has been sentenced for state treason, having transmitted information about Ukrainian force locations, including State Border Guard Service ships, to Russian special services. DeepState reports Ukrainian forces are holding defenses and destroying Russian positions with drones in the Serebryanske forest area. Butusov Plus shares video of successful Ukrainian drone strikes repelling a Russian assault near Novopil. STERNENKO shares an image from a drone feed labeled "RUSORIZ BOMB ARMED," possibly indicating Ukrainian combat drone activity. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlights the bravery and achievements of Ukrainian military personnel.
Russia: Maintaining forces in occupied territories, with military personnel engaging in propaganda activities like congratulating veterans. Receiving military support from South Ossetia, with approximately 1500 personnel reportedly participating in the conflict. Actively conducting information operations, particularly concerning alleged Ukrainian ceasefire violations and showcasing captured equipment. Utilizing aviation and artillery, as implied by the high number of alleged violations and the report of shelling in the DNR. Employing counter-drone tactics as suggested by the inclusion of air defense intercepts on the previously provided map and the showcasing of captured Ukrainian drones. The showcasing of captured Ukrainian military equipment (Browning M1919, RPG-7, grenade) provides insight into the types of weaponry encountered by Russian forces and potentially revealing their sources of supply and tactical deployments. The latest messages highlight an expansion in the geographical reach and scale of Russian drone deployment, including towards Odesa Oblast and across central Ukraine, indicating a continued or increased reliance on UAVs for attack and reconnaissance. Воин DV shares a video claiming Russian drone operators destroyed enemy drone control points and struck Ukrainian militants in the Orikhiv area, providing a specific example of claimed Russian tactical success involving drones. Politsiya Khabarovskogo Krai is recruiting personnel for internal affairs bodies, including for occupied territories, indicating efforts to staff administration and potentially security in these areas. Russian forces claim advances and liberation of Kotlyarovka and are pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Operations Z: Voenkor Rus Vesna reports Russian aviation is helping to repel Ukrainian offensives on Tetkino in Kursk using FAB-1500s. Рыбарь shares an infographic about a new Russian cruise missile "Banderoль," highlighting a potential new air-launched missile capability from UAVs and helicopters. Colonelcassad highlights the expansion of the Alabuga drone factory and its link to increased "Geran" strikes. Басурин о главном reports a Russian claim of capturing a significant fortified area north of Toretsk. Воин DV reports on Russian forces pushing forward and expanding control on the South-Donetsk direction, utilizing artillery and FPV drones. ASTRA shares a photo of two soldiers carrying what appear to be mines, indicating ongoing mining activities.
India: Engaged in military exchanges with Pakistan, claiming strikes on Pakistani airbases (reported previously).
Pakistan: Engaged in military exchanges with India, reporting on Indian strikes and claiming interceptions (reported previously).
Niger: Conducting military cooperation talks with Russia.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The highly detailed, real-time tracking of Ukrainian drone movements provided by Nikolaevskiy Vanyok and the warnings issued by the Ukrainian Air Force are significant pieces of operational intelligence. This level of granular data allows for more precise air defense deployment and potential interdiction efforts, or conversely, could indicate sophisticated Ukrainian drone coordination and tactics aimed at specific targets. This information is strategically important for both defensive and offensive planning and highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare. The warnings issued for cities like Zhytomyr, Zolotolnosha, and Voznesensk indicate that Ukrainian drone activity extends beyond the immediate front lines and could be targeting infrastructure or military installations in these areas, which has strategic implications for logistics and defense in depth. The latest messages indicate a significant expansion of Russian drone activity across central and southern Ukraine, including new groups detected over the Black Sea and heading towards Odesa Oblast, and new threats to Khmelnytskyi and Sumy Oblasts. This suggests a strategic shift or increased effort to target areas previously less affected by large-scale drone attacks, potentially aiming to disrupt logistics, pressure civilian populations, or probe air defenses in new areas. The targeting of Black Sea ports has significant economic and logistical implications.
Russia's public engagement with and emphasis on the contributions of military personnel from partially recognized states like South Ossetia highlights a strategy of leveraging allied forces and consolidating influence in the Caucasus region. This provides Russia with additional manpower and reinforces its position in these territories, which has strategic implications for regional security and the broader geopolitical balance.
The US Special Envoy's denial of tension between Trump and Netanyahu, while seemingly unrelated to Ukraine, speaks to the ongoing efforts to manage key international relationships and address media narratives, which can have indirect impacts on global diplomatic efforts and resource allocation.
The explicit and high-figure Russian claim of extensive Ukrainian ceasefire violations, supported by specific examples and visual propaganda, is a clear and significant information operation. Strategically, this aims to pre-emptively discredit any future Ukrainian or Western calls for a ceasefire, justify continued Russian military actions, and shape both domestic and international perceptions of the conflict. The timing of this report, following recent discussions about a potential ceasefire, underscores its strategic intent. The report of Ukrainian shelling and a civilian fatality in the DNR reinforces this Russian narrative of Ukrainian aggression and the targeting of civilians in occupied territories.
The visual propaganda in the form of the map detailing alleged Ukrainian violations and the photos showcasing captured Ukrainian equipment are targeted efforts to influence opinion and provide a visual narrative supporting the Russian claims. This underscores the importance of the information domain as a critical theater of conflict. Showcasing captured equipment serves to demoralize the enemy and boost domestic morale. The sharing of a video reportedly showing abandoned Ukrainian bodies serves as potent visual propaganda aimed at depicting Ukrainian losses and demoralizing the enemy. The video showcasing Russian drone operators' claimed success in the Orikhiv area serves as propaganda to showcase Russian military effectiveness and potentially recruit personnel.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties in occupied territories highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict and provides data for assessing the impact of military operations on the civilian population.
The diplomatic incident regarding the desecration of a Soviet monument in Estonia and Russia's strong response underscore the ongoing historical and political tensions between Russia and some European countries and the use of historical narratives in the current geopolitical context. This incident could further strain diplomatic relations and fuel nationalist sentiment.
The showcasing of captured Ukrainian military equipment provides tactical and intelligence value by identifying the types of weapons being used by Ukrainian forces and potentially revealing their sources of supply and tactical deployments. This information can be used to inform future Russian tactics and counter-measures.
The accusation by the Polish Prime Minister that Russian special services organized arson in Warsaw is a significant strategic development. If true, it indicates a potential escalation of Russian covert actions targeting NATO and EU member states, which could lead to increased tensions, counter-intelligence efforts, and potentially retaliatory measures. Even as an unverified claim, it is a potent information operation that can be used to mobilize public opinion against Russia and justify increased security measures in Poland and potentially other European countries.
Russia inviting representatives from over 150 countries to a security meeting in Moscow is a strategic diplomatic effort to counter international isolation, promote its own security perspectives, and potentially build alternative alliances or blocs. The broad invitation list suggests an attempt to engage countries beyond traditional Western partners.
Internal Russian issues such as cybercrime and social welfare, while seemingly unrelated to military operations, contribute to the overall picture of the Russian domestic environment and can indirectly influence public support and the sustainability of the conflict. Politsiya Khabarovskogo Krai recruiting for internal affairs bodies, including for occupied territories, highlights Russia's efforts to solidify control and establish administrative structures in the annexed regions, which is a key component of their long-term strategy.
The US domestic political development regarding Donald Trump's executive order on drug pricing, while focused on internal US policy, could have indirect international economic implications for the pharmaceutical industry and drug pricing globally. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
The report of forest fires at an airfield near Chita, Russia, suggests a potential successful Ukrainian strike or act of sabotage deep within Russian territory, impacting Russian aviation capabilities and raising internal security concerns. (РБК-Україна)
Russia closing the airspace over the Kapustin Yar test site suggests potential planned missile testing or other military activity, which could provide insights into Russia's missile development programs and capabilities and potentially precede significant missile launches. (ASTRA)
The German ultimatum to Russia regarding a ceasefire and the potential transfer of TAURUS missiles to Ukraine, as reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, represents a significant diplomatic and strategic pressure point on Russia. If Russia refuses the ceasefire, the potential for Ukraine to receive long-range strike capabilities increases, which could alter the balance of power and allow Ukraine to target critical Russian infrastructure and assets deeper behind the front lines. Russia's explicit rejection of the ultimatum language underscores the diplomatic impasse.
The reported Russian advances and claim of capturing a fortified area north of Toretsk, as reported by Басурин о главном, indicate a potential new direction or intensification of Russian offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Gaining ground in this area, particularly across the Siversky Donets canal, would be strategically significant and could impact the defense of key Ukrainian positions.
The reported push by Russian forces towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and their aim for fire control over a logistical hub, as claimed by Russian sources, indicates a strategic objective to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and logistical support for forces in eastern Ukraine. This could have a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain operations in the Donbas.
The reported use of new anti-personnel mines by Ukrainian forces on the Sumy direction, as claimed by Russian military bloggers, suggests a possible tactical shift by Ukraine to impede potential Russian ground advances in border regions. This could be a defensive measure to slow down or deter incursions.
The reported expansion of the Alabuga drone factory and the development of a new Russian cruise missile "Banderoль" with potential UAV and helicopter carriers, as highlighted by Colonelcassad and Рыбарь, indicate Russia's strategic focus on increasing its drone and missile production and capabilities. These developments could lead to an increase in the intensity and effectiveness of Russian strikes in the future and pose new challenges for Ukrainian air defense.
The accusation and sentencing of a medical worker for state treason in Odesa Oblast, as reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General and Оперативний ЗСУ, highlights the ongoing counter-espionage efforts in Ukraine and the potential for individuals to aid Russian forces by providing intelligence on Ukrainian military locations and infrastructure. This underscores the importance of internal security measures and the pervasive nature of the conflict.
The reports of alleged extreme internal security issues within the Russian military, including forced fights to the death, as shared by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, if true, point to potential significant morale, discipline, and leadership problems within some Russian units. This could impact their operational effectiveness and sustainability. However, these reports originate from a source critical of Russia, so verification is crucial.
The reports of a Polish border blockade by carriers, as reported by Оперативний ЗСУ, highlight potential logistical challenges for Ukraine and could strain bilateral relations. This situation is likely related to economic or transport issues but has indirect implications for the conflict.
The reports from Воин DV on Russian forces pushing forward and expanding control on the South-Donetsk direction underscore the ongoing nature of Russian offensive efforts in this area. The detailed account of gains and claimed Ukrainian losses provides a snapshot of the intensity of fighting in this sector.
ASTRA's reports on a Russian veteran's employment difficulties and proposed tax exemptions for servicemen highlight potential social and economic consequences of the conflict within Russia. These issues could impact public support and the long-term reintegration of returning soldiers.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report