Sitrep 2025-05-12 09:27:03

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 09:26 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Persistent Russian aerial activity, including drone and guided aerial bomb (KAB) usage, continues, alongside Ukrainian efforts to counter these threats. Significant diplomatic activity continues, with various actors discussing potential peace talks and ceasing hostilities, though with conflicting public stances and persistent skepticism. Information operations remain a key aspect of the conflict, with both sides promoting their narratives. Civilian casualties and damage from shelling and drone attacks continue to be reported. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and legal developments, are also reported. Military modernization efforts are highlighted by both sides. Reports indicate that the large-scale Russian drone attack was conducted using 108 Shahed-type and decoy drones, with 55 shot down. There is also a report of Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast. Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act, a significant diplomatic escalation. Brazilian President Lula da Silva has offered himself as a mediator. Reports suggest that Ukraine has held secret, high-level negotiations with Russia since 2022. Disgraced Russian General Surovikin was reportedly seen in Algeria, claimed by a Russian State Duma member to be working as a military advisor in Africa. The European Commission has signed contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industry. Ukrainian reporting highlights the return of prisoners from Russian captivity. Russian sources continue to claim destruction of Ukrainian assets and disruption of rotations in various areas. A Ukrainian energy worker was reportedly killed in a drone strike in Sumy Oblast. Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area suggest potential logistical preparations. Ukraine's GUR is reporting details on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones, allegedly using foreign components. Ukrainian military intelligence is actively combating internal sabotage efforts, leading to arrests in Rivne Oblast. Russian sources report continued combat and destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts. Internal Russian reports include an arrest of an ex-senator and a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Russian media continues to promote a specific narrative. Ukrainian forces in the South are reporting significant Russian losses and repelled assaults. Training exercises for Ukrainian infantry are ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast. More details on the large-scale Russian drone attack confirm impacts in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Reports from Donetsk Oblast confirm civilian casualties and damage. The PKK has reportedly decided to self-dissolve. New Su-35S fighters have been delivered to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast highlights potential issues with guided munition reliability. A US-China trade truce is reported. A teenager was reportedly detained in Novokuznetsk, Russia, who allegedly planned a terrorist attack on a military commissariat in collusion with a "terrorist organization connected with Ukraine." Reports from Zaporizhzhia Oblast detail Russian drone and KAB attacks on frontline communities. A Bloomberg report suggests the EU and US will issue a "strong response," including sanctions, if Russia does not cease fire today. The curfew has been relaxed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Four civilians were reportedly injured in Kherson Oblast due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes. A Ukrainian source claims a successful drone strike on the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast, which allegedly produces rocket fuel for Russian MLRS and Iskander missiles. A protest by Polish carriers potentially blocking the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" border crossing for up to four months is reported. The Russian State Duma is planning legislation to exempt participants of the "special military operation" from land and transport taxes. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated Russia will respond to Poland's consulate closure. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claim to have detected and engaged a Russian infantry group in the enemy rear, destroying 8 assault troops. Continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. Discussions on tactical medicine in the Russian military are ongoing. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming to show a Russian vehicle being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone near the "road of death" for Russian occupiers. Russian military bloggers are discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare. A child was reportedly injured in Mogilev, Belarus, for showing a disrespectful gesture towards Victory Day fireworks. Russia claims to have liberated Kotlyarovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. There are reports of Russian forces continuing to flank Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). A video podcast by Russian military bloggers discusses neural network information warfare. A statement by Alex Parker Returns discusses a potential gift of a luxury Boeing 747-8 to Donald Trump from Qatar for recognizing Palestine and the implications for US foreign policy. The self-proclaimed governor of Kherson Oblast reports four civilian fatalities and two injured due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes in Chelburda. Colonelcassad provides a summary of claimed Russian strikes across Ukraine from May 11-12. The "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" shares a video claiming to show the repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk during the ceasefire. A message from "Zona SVO" expresses optimism for victory. A Ukrainian source shares a video questioning the whereabouts of "doubles" (likely referring to deceased Russian personnel). WarGonzo reports on a Russian "Opinion Leaders Intensive" event focusing on information operations and historical memory. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims liberation of Kotlyarovka and details of destroyed Ukrainian assets and personnel losses across various groupings of forces. ASTRA reports that former "people's governor of Donbas" Pavel Gubarev has called on Russian military personnel to mutiny if the war is frozen. Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports that the Russian Ambassador will be invited to receive a note regarding the closure of the consulate in Krakow, and that the diplomats will have to leave Poland within 30 days. A Russian source shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing near the recently claimed liberated Kotlyarovka. A message from "Mobilizatsia | News | Conscripts" reports a veteran in Cheboksary, Russia, is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front, highlighting potential issues with veteran support. A Ukrainian source shares a video from Kharkiv. Basurin о glavnom reports on the delivery of new Su-35S fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces. News from Moscow reports that frost has destroyed 12% of the sugar beet harvest in Russia and could lead to significant losses of stone fruits, potentially impacting prices. РБК-Україна reports that banks in Ukraine will reduce limits on card transfers and payments via IBAN from June 1, 2025, for individuals, with lower limits for "high-risk" clients, but not affecting those with confirmed income sources like salaries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues, a potential ceasefire, negotiations, and inviting the Pope to visit Ukraine. A Russian source shares a message from a local resident in the "nezalezhnaya" (Ukraine) describing alleged TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) activities involving the abduction of civilians. Two Mayors reports on the potential long-term blockage of the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing by Polish carriers.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Novohrodivka, Horlivka, Bakhmut districts, Bogatyr, Alekseevka, Kurakhovo direction, Selydove, Ukrainsk, Chelyuskinets, Kamianka, Ocheretyne, Avdiivka direction, Kotlyarovka, Dzerzhinsk): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reports numerous assaults repelled across these directions. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 13 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivka direction, six on the Orikhiv direction, and one unsuccessful attempt on the Dnipro direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog in the "liberated" Novohrodivka, indicating Russian presence and control claims. ASTRA reports a Russian drone attacked a civilian cargo train in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut districts. WarGonzo reports a man was killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka, with damage to houses and a car. Russian sources report continued combat in the South Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports Russian units destroyed a temporary deployment point, a dugout, 2 BBMs, a Dart UAV, and a Leleka UAV in the areas of Alekseevka and Bogatyr. They also claim to have eliminated 2 Baba Yaga hexacopters and Starlink equipment. Народная милиция ДНР reports Russian artillery and UAV operators destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position in the South Donetsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian tank was destroyed by a Ukrainian "Spartan" brigade using "Stugna-P" and drones near Novoseriivka, west of Pokrovsk, confirming continued Russian attempts to advance and Ukrainian defensive actions in this area. Kotsnews shares a video claiming "Vega" special forces are destroying Ukrainian assets on the Pokrovsk direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. Воин DV reports units of the 36th Combined Arms Army are operating west of Bogatyr, claiming destruction of Ukrainian command posts, temporary deployment points, dugouts, Kozak BBM, and Baba Yaga hexacopters. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Chelyuskinets, resulting in injuries and damage to a house. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports damage to houses and a car in the village of Kamianka as a result of Ukrainian shelling. Ukrainian source (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports Russian forces conducted an assault on Avdiivka direction, near Ocheretyne, suffering heavy losses. ТАСС reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. WarGonzo reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka. Военкор Котенок reports the official report of the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Два майора reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces continue flanking Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), with ongoing fighting. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming to show the repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk during the ceasefire. Два майора shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing near the recently claimed liberated Kotlyarovka.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Rylsk, Tetkino, Khomutovka, Valuyki, Богун-Городок, Борки, Красный Октябрь — Бессоновка, Двулучное, Архангельское, Соболевка, Уразово, Чайки, Аркатово — Посохово): Ukrainian General Staff reports combat engagements, aviation strikes, and artillery shellings. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk, injuring three people and damaging a hotel and vehicles. Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, after allegedly striking Rylsk. Рыбарь reports continued fighting near Tetkino and Ukrainian attempts to break through, including with Leopard tanks. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Sumy Oblast after it allegedly fired on Rylsk.
Sumy Oblast (Nahornivka, Konotop, Черневе, Sumy community, Suburbs of Sumy): Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka after allegedly striking Rylsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the Cherneve area. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS here. РБК-Україна reports a drone strike on an energy worker's car in the suburbs of Sumy, with one fatality and injuries. Kadyrov_95 reports on the operations of the "Zapad-AHMAT" battalion and police forces in Sumy Oblast, claiming significant losses inflicted on the enemy. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming an attack on enemy positions in Sumy Oblast.
Odesa Oblast (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi): Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms significant destruction and one injured person. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area. Colonelcassad shares video claiming to show night strikes of "Geraniums" on targets in the Belgorod-Dnestrovsky area. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including Belgorod-Dnestrovsky.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including the vicinity of Вознесенк.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv direction, Gulyaipole, Bilenke village): Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelling six enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster. Два майора is fundraising for tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction. MoD Russia and Воин DV report Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian assets and disrupted rotations near Gulyaipole. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle. Mash на Донбассе reports a relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian sources report continued combat in Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on alleged Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Kherson Oblast and damage in Nova Kakhovka, which is in Kherson Oblast, near Zaporizhzhia. Два майора shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" which is adjacent to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including the vicinity of Zhytomyr and Berdichev.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack (reported previously). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports Russian forces approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Два майора shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing near the recently claimed liberated Kotlyarovka.
Kherson Oblast (Chelburda, Aleshkinsky district): Сили оборони Півдня України reports one unsuccessful enemy attempt to advance on the Dnipro direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities from Ukrainian strikes and continued mutual artillery/drone strikes across the Dnieper. Военкор Котенок reports four civilian fatalities and two injured in the village of Chelburda in Aleshkinsky district due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes. This, if confirmed, would indicate further civilian casualties from drone activity and potentially Ukrainian targeting of civilian areas. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports four civilian fatalities and injuries due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes in Chelburda, and damage in Nova Kakhovka. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including Kherson Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Korocha district, Valuyki, Bohun-Horodok, Borki, Krasnyi Oktiabr - Bessonovka road, Dvuluchne, Arkhangelske, Sobolivka, Urazovo, Chaiki, Arkatovo - Posokhovo road, Ivitsa, "Belgorod People's Republic"): Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Korocha district. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SSOs conducted a raid here and captured Russian soldiers.
Rivne Oblast (Near Rivne): Офіс Генерального прокурора and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the detention of two Russian agents for an attempted terrorist attack. Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on the attempted terrorist attack, stating they planned to blow up a police investigation team.
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Buryatia (Russia) (Barguzin): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights a memorial for those killed in the "SVO".
Perm (Russia): Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime.
Kemerovo Oblast (Russia) (Novokuznetsk): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat in collusion with a "terrorist organization connected with Ukraine." ASTRA reports the detention of two 16-year-old teenagers in Novokuznetsk suspected of preparing to blow up a military commissariat, allegedly on assignment from the "Freedom of Russia Legion."
Algeria: ASTRA reports that General Surovikin was seen here.
Mogilev (Belarus): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that schoolgirls were found showing disrespectful gestures to Victory Day fireworks and were subjected to "serious work."
Rostov Oblast (Russia) (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky): Оперативний ЗСУ claims a UAV fell on the territory of the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, which allegedly produces rocket fuel for Russian MLRS and Iskander missiles. Russian sources claim no consequences.
Polish-Ukrainian Border (Yahodyn - Dorohusk crossing): РБК-Україна reports that Polish carriers may potentially block the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" border crossing for up to four months due to a protest, according to Ukrainian border guards. This would significantly impact logistical flows between Ukraine and Poland, potentially affecting military aid and civilian goods. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on the potential blockage. Два майора reports on the potential blockage.
Kyiv Oblast (Zgurivka, Brovary, Bila Tserkva): Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including these areas.
Cherkasy Oblast (Kaniv): Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including Kaniv.
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports three enemy attacks in the Vovchansk area, with fierce battles ongoing.
Cheboksary (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports a large-scale Russian attack involving 108 Shahed-type and decoy drones overnight, with 55 shot down and 30 decoy drones lost. The attack affected Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 650 kamikaze drone strikes and over 400 drops from UAVs using around 500 munitions in the South. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms destruction and injury in Odesa Oblast due to the attack. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Ukrainian GUR, reports on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from Orion UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming to show attack on enemy positions on the Sumy direction, involving drones. Два майора is fundraising for drone detectors for tank crews. Военкор Котенок is fundraising for motorcycles and drone detectors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle. Народная милиция ДНР reports Russian artillery and UAV operators destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position. Kotsnews shares a video claiming soldiers are using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian kamikaze drones. Воин DV reports Russian units destroyed a Dart UAV, a Leleka UAV, and 6 Baba Yaga hexacopters, and disrupted attempts to reinforce positions and evacuate using FPV drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian tank was destroyed by a Ukrainian "Spartan" brigade using "Stugna-P" and drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a Russian "Niva" vehicle attacking a Ukrainian FPV drone. Военкор Котенок reports four civilian fatalities and two injured in Chelburda, Kherson Oblast, due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ claims a UAV fell on the territory of the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast. Воин DV reports units of the 36th Combined Arms Army operating west of Bogatyr have destroyed Ukrainian UAV command posts and Baba Yaga hexacopters. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Chelyuskinets, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in injuries and damage. Russian military bloggers are discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare and the need for better equipment and coordination. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including "Geran/Gerbera" drone strikes on multiple regions. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports 128 drone-kamikaze attacks and 102 UAVs destroyed or damaged in the Kharkiv operational zone. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down 135 Ukrainian UAVs over the past day. WarGonzo reports means of air defense shot down 135 UAVs. Kadyrov_95 reports on the use of drones and claims of accurate strikes in Sumy Oblast.
Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 10 aviation strikes by Russian forces in the South, using 15 guided aerial bombs and 101 unguided aerial rockets. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munition use for frontline regions. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 aviation bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast. ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including aviation strikes on multiple regions. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports 2 aviation strikes using 2 KABs in the Kharkiv operational zone. Басурин о главном reports on the delivery of new Su-35S fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Missile Activity: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast, injuring three people. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South, including MLRS. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts (later lifted). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Sumy Oblast after it allegedly fired on Rylsk. Colonelcassad provides a summary of strikes including missile strikes on multiple regions. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down 9 JDAM bombs and 2 HIMARS projectiles. WarGonzo reports means of air defense shot down nine guided aerial bombs JDAM and two HIMARS missiles.
Naval Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area, including two military ships. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 4 enemy boats in the past day.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports 55 Russian UAVs were shot down overnight. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 3 enemy air defense systems in the past day. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs. Kotsnews shares a video claiming soldiers are using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian kamikaze drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the destruction of 102 UAVs by Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv operational zone. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down 9 JDAM bombs, 135 UAVs, and 2 HIMARS projectiles over the past day. WarGonzo reports means of air defense shot down nine guided aerial bombs JDAM and two HIMARS missiles, as well as 135 UAVs.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Discussions regarding potential peace talks in Istanbul persist. Ukrainian officials maintain their stance of not agreeing to talks without a prior ceasefire. Russian sources express skepticism about Ukraine's willingness to negotiate on Russian terms. The Guardian reports that Zelenskyy's offer to meet Putin in Istanbul is seen as a move to seize the initiative. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that Ukraine will not agree to talks without a prior ceasefire and questions who else in Russia is capable of making and enforcing decisions of that level besides Putin. ISW analyzes Putin's statement on resuming direct talks based on Istanbul protocols, interpreting it as demanding Ukraine's full capitulation and aiming to delay negotiations while continuing offensives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report that Brazilian President Lula da Silva proposed himself to Putin as a mediator for negotiations on Ukraine. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a claim by Ukrainian Deputy Goncharenko that Ukraine has held direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, even in 2024, although these talks have reportedly failed. Bloomberg reports a potential EU/US "strong response," including sanctions, if Russia does not cease fire today. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues, a potential ceasefire, and negotiations.
International Support for Ukraine: A meeting of EU foreign ministers is scheduled in the UK today to discuss support for Ukraine and European security. The UK Foreign Minister plans to announce further sanctions against individuals supporting the Russian invasion. ТАСС reports that the European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence to discuss continued military support and cooperation. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues.
Russia-Poland Relations: Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act. This is a significant diplomatic escalation. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia will respond to Poland's actions. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Poland's decision and Russia's reaction. Два майора reports on Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow, linking it to alleged Russian sabotage and noting Poland's continued course towards breaking relations with Russia and increasing its offensive potential. ТАСС reports that Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russia will respond to Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow. ТАСС reports Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states the Russian Ambassador will be invited to receive a note regarding the closure and that diplomats must leave within 30 days.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations in Istanbul continues, with differing conditions from each side. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a claim by Ukrainian Deputy Goncharenko that Ukraine has held direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, including in 2024. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues, a potential ceasefire, and negotiations.
Russian Internal Politics: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to Victory Day and alleged "neo-fascism." Два майора is engaged in fundraising. Военкор Котенок is engaged in fundraising. Басурин о главном reports on the PKK self-dissolution. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat. ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that schoolgirls were found showing disrespectful gestures to Victory Day fireworks in Mogilev, Belarus, and were subjected to "serious work." This highlights sensitivity around Victory Day symbolism in Russia and allied countries and potential internal social issues. ASTRA reports the detention of two 16-year-old teenagers in Novokuznetsk suspected of preparing to blow up a military commissariat, allegedly on assignment from the "Freedom of Russia Legion." Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on plans to exempt participants of the "special military operation" from land and transport taxes. ASTRA reports that former "people's governor of Donbas" Pavel Gubarev has called on Russian military personnel to mutiny. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment.
Ukraine's International Relations: Ukraine is engaging with EU foreign ministers in the UK to discuss support. Ukraine is responding to Hungary's expulsion of diplomats and addressing the issue of rare earth metal reserves and potential US interest (reported previously). Discussion around potential direct negotiations with Russia in Istanbul continues. The Guardian reports on Zelenskyy's move to seize the initiative regarding Istanbul talks. Ukraine is engaged in counterintelligence efforts, leading to the detention of Russian agents. ТАСС reports that the European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence to discuss continued military support and cooperation. РБК-Україна reports that Polish carriers may potentially block the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" border crossing for up to four months due to a protest, according to Ukrainian border guards. This indicates a potential challenge in relations with Poland impacting logistics. Українські прикордонники report receiving information about the potential protest by Polish carriers. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the potential border blockage. Два майора reports on the potential border blockage by Polish carriers. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV.
PKK Self-Dissolution: Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has decided to self-dissolve. This has implications for Turkey and regional security. Рыбарь analyzes the PKK's decision to self-dissolve, noting that it wasn't a military defeat but a diplomatic solution, and questions if Turkey will cease its operations in northern Iraq. Alex Parker Returns reports on the PKK officially stating its self-dissolution after a party congress, ending armed struggle against Turkey.
US-China Relations: A 90-day trade truce is reported. This is a significant international economic development. Оперативний ЗСУ and Alex Parker Returns confirm the US-China trade truce. ТАСС reports the US and China have agreed to mutually reduce tariffs by 10% for an initial 90-day period.
Russia-Belarus Relations: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on an incident in Mogilev, Belarus, where schoolgirls were found showing disrespectful gestures to Victory Day fireworks. This indicates continued close ties and shared sensitivities regarding Victory Day symbolism.
Litigation: ТАСС reports that Alisher Usmanov has won a court case in Luxembourg regarding the ownership of his yacht, with the court prohibiting Mediahuis Luxembourg S.A. from calling him the owner.
Information Warfare Discussion: Рыбарь announces a video podcast discussing neural network information warfare.
US Politics: Alex Parker Returns discusses the potential gift of a luxury Boeing 747-8 to Donald Trump from Qatar.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Reports of drone activity within Russia continue (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov Oblasts). ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to internal and external threats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat. ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the incident in Mogilev, Belarus, regarding schoolgirls showing disrespect to Victory Day fireworks. ASTRA reports the detention of two 16-year-old teenagers in Novokuznetsk suspected of preparing to blow up a military commissariat. Оперативний ЗСУ claims a UAV fell on the territory of the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Chelyuskinets, Donetsk Oblast. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports damage to houses and a car in the village of Kamianka as a result of Ukrainian shelling. Russian military bloggers are discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare. ASTRA reports that former "people's governor of Donbas" Pavel Gubarev has called on Russian military personnel to mutiny if the war is frozen, which could be interpreted as a call for internal unrest. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front, highlighting potential social and security challenges with reintegrating veterans.
Legal Developments: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on plans to exempt participants of the "special military operation" from land and transport taxes. ТАСС reports that Alisher Usmanov has won a court case in Luxembourg regarding the ownership of his yacht.
Information Operations: Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day, the conflict in Ukraine, and internal/external threats. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is celebrating LPR day and promoting narratives on "neo-fascism." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is sharing content related to Russian forces and potentially propaganda about Ukrainian areas. Два майора and Военкор Котенок are sharing videos and commentary, including fundraising appeals. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is sharing videos of military actions and commenting on international events. Басурин о главном is commenting on regional developments. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, potentially highlighting issues that Russian authorities may seek to downplay or misrepresent. ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders, exemplified by Maria Zakharova's claim about European leaders using drugs. Два майора is discussing efforts to improve tactical medicine in the Russian military. Рыбарь analyzes the PKK's decision to self-dissolve and its implications. Alex Parker Returns comments on the French Presidential Palace's response to alleged disinformation about Macron. Alex Parker Returns reports on the PKK officially stating its self-dissolution. Рыбарь announces a video podcast discussing neural network information warfare, indicating a focus on the evolving landscape of information operations. Alex Parker Returns discusses the potential gift of a luxury Boeing 747-8 to Donald Trump and the implications for US foreign policy, including controversial and biased commentary. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on alleged Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties, which is a common information operation tactic. «Зона СВО» shares a message expressing optimism for victory, a morale-boosting message. WarGonzo reports on a Russian "Opinion Leaders Intensive" event, highlighting the organized nature of information operations and the focus on historical memory and the role of opinion leaders. ASTRA reports that former "people's governor of Donbas" Pavel Gubarev has called on Russian military personnel to mutiny, which could be used in information operations by both sides. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment, which could be used by both sides in information operations.
Military Production: ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Оперативний ЗСУ claims the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast, which was allegedly targeted by a UAV, produces rocket fuel for Russian MLRS and Iskander missiles. Басурин о главном reports on the delivery of new Su-35S fighters.
Civilian Casualties (Russian territory): ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.
Military Personnel Status: ASTRA reports that "disgraced" General Surovikin was seen in Algeria, with a Russian State Duma member claiming he is working as a military advisor in Africa.
Agricultural Impact: Новости Москвы reports that frost has destroyed a significant portion of sugar beet and stone fruit harvests in Russia.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Civilian Impact: Reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure continue in Donetsk, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine, and Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts in Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka. Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast from Ukrainian strikes and continued mutual artillery/drone strikes across the Dnieper. ASTRA and Север.Реalii report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle. Военкор Котенок reports four civilian fatalities and two injured in the village of Chelburda, Kherson Oblast, due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports injuries and damage to a house in the village of Chelyuskinets, Donetsk Oblast, as a result of a Ukrainian drone strike. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports damage to houses and a car in the village of Kamianka, Donetsk Oblast, as a result of Ukrainian shelling. РБК-Україна reports a drone strike on an energy worker's car in the suburbs of Sumy, with one fatality and injuries. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports four civilian fatalities and injuries due to alleged Ukrainian drone strikes in Chelburda, Kherson Oblast, and damage in Nova Kakhovka. Новости Москвы reports that frost has destroyed a significant portion of sugar beet and stone fruit harvests in Russia, impacting agriculture and potentially food prices. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a message from a local resident in the "nezalezhnaya" (Ukraine) describing alleged TCC activities involving the abduction of civilians.
Ukrainian Military Training: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 highlights ongoing infantry training at the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast.
Fundraising Efforts: Два майора and Военкор Котенок are conducting fundraising for equipment for Russian military units. РБК-Україна reports on the Ukrainian "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment and vehicle repairs after losses. Colonelcassad is conducting a fundraiser for Russian units in the Artemivsk-Chasiv Yar-Klishchiivka-Siversk directions. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising campaign for "russoriz" (likely anti-Russian drone operations).
Support for Military Personnel and Families: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog from Novohrodivka, highlighting a humanitarian action by Russian soldiers. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» reports on the return of prisoners of war and efforts to support them and their families. РБК-Україна highlights efforts in Dnipro to help wounded soldiers return to life and service after injuries. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence discussing support for wounded and rehabilitated Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues, including the return of deported children. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary, Russia, is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front.
Tactical Medicine: Два майора is discussing efforts to improve tactical medicine in the Russian military, specifically regarding antibiotic usage and the importance of documenting medical treatment on injured personnel.
Financial Support (Ukraine): РБК-Україна reports that banks in Ukraine will reduce limits on card transfers and payments via IBAN from June 1, 2025, for individuals.
Adoption (Ukraine): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares information about financial assistance for adopting a child in Ukraine.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Conducting large-scale drone attacks (over 100 UAVs), extensive artillery and MLRS shelling, and aviation strikes with guided bombs. Utilizing FPV drones. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (HIMARS, boats, air defense systems, vehicles). Employing tactical aviation. Delivering new Su-35S fighter jets. Potentially using a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. Reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and successful strikes by Grad MLRS in Zaporizhzhia. Observing increased military cargo movement in Odesa. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast. Destroying Ukrainian assets and disrupting rotations in the Bogatyr, Alekseevka, and Gulyaipole areas. Targeting energy workers with drones in Sumy Oblast. Using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian drones. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Рыбарь, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, ASTRA, Север.Реalii, WarGonzo, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Народная милиция ДНР, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Colonelcassad) Военкор Котенок reports alleged Ukrainian drone strikes causing civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ claims a UAV fell on the territory of the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast. Воин DV reports units of the 36th Combined Arms Army are operating west of Bogatyr, claiming destruction of Ukrainian assets and personnel. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Chelyuskinets, Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian shelling of Kamianka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claim to have detected and engaged a Russian infantry group in the enemy rear, destroying 8 Russian assault troops. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast. Два майора is discussing efforts to improve tactical medicine in the Russian military. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a Russian "Niva" vehicle being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone. Russian military bloggers are discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare and the need for better equipment and coordination. РБК-Україна reports a drone strike on an energy worker's car in the suburbs of Sumy. Ukrainian source (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports Russian forces conducted an assault on Avdiivka direction, near Ocheretyne, suffering heavy losses. ТАСС reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. WarGonzo reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka. Военкор Котенок reports the official report of the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Два майора reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the liberation of Kotlyarovka. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces continue flanking Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), with ongoing fighting, claiming advantage in the air and using artillery and reactive artillery. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on Russian forces conducting attacks in the Vovchansk area, utilizing aviation and drones. ТАСС reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have inflicted over 2000 personnel losses on Ukrainian forces across various groupings of forces over the past day, and destroyed various types of equipment, including JDAM bombs, HIMARS, and UAVs. Басурин о главном reports on the delivery of new Su-35S fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Kadyrov_95 reports on the operations of the "Zapad-AHMAT" battalion and police forces in Sumy Oblast, claiming significant losses inflicted on the enemy, including personnel, shelters, and positions. Colonelcassad provides a summary of claimed Russian strikes across Ukraine from May 11-12, including the use of guided aerial bombs and "Geran/Gerbera" drones. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming to show the repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk, detailing the use of artillery and high-precision guided shells. Два майора shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing near the recently claimed liberated Kotlyarovka.
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults across numerous sectors, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses (personnel, equipment, air defense systems, boats). Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces. Returning prisoners of war. Conducting SSOs raids on Russian territory, resulting in prisoner captures. Fundraising for equipment and repairs. Rehabilitating wounded soldiers. Discussing continued military support and cooperation with international partners. Destroying a Russian tank using anti-tank systems and drones. Using FPV drones. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Офіс Генерального прокурора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реalii, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Военкор Котенок reports alleged Ukrainian drone strikes causing civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ claims a UAV fell on the territory of the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast. Russian source (Mash на Донбассе) reports a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Chelyuskinets, Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian shelling of Kamianka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claim to have detected and engaged a Russian infantry group in the enemy rear, destroying 8 Russian assault troops. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a Russian "Niva" vehicle being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone. STERNENKO is promoting a fundraising campaign for "russoriz". РБК-Україна reports a drone strike on an energy worker's car in the suburbs of Sumy. Ukrainian source (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reports Russian forces conducted an assault on Avdiivka direction, near Ocheretyne, suffering heavy losses. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on Ukrainian forces repelling attacks in the Vovchansk area, inflicting personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, and destroying shelters and ammunition depots. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports on his first conversation with Pope Leo XIV, discussing humanitarian issues, a potential ceasefire, and negotiations. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming to show the repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk during the ceasefire. Два майора shares photos and videos from the "Dnipropetrovsk direction" where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing, and notes Ukrainian forces are resisting near the recently claimed liberated Kotlyarovka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a message from a local resident in the "nezalezhnaya" (Ukraine) describing alleged TCC activities involving the abduction of civilians.
PKK: Reportedly deciding to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns) Рыбарь analyzes the PKK's decision to self-dissolve, noting that it wasn't a military defeat but a diplomatic solution, and questions if Turkey will cease its operations in northern Iraq. Alex Parker Returns reports on the PKK officially stating its self-dissolution.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, despite the declared end of the Russian ceasefire, indicates that both sides remain committed to achieving military objectives through force. The high number of reported engagements underscores the attritional nature of the current phase of the conflict. The Russian claim of liberating Kotlyarovka, if confirmed, represents a tactical gain and a potential step in their flanking maneuver towards Pokrovsk, which is a significant strategic objective. The report of heavy fighting continuing near Kotlyarovka suggests that even after a claimed capture, the area remains contested or subject to counterattacks. The report of Russian forces continuing to flank Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) indicates a sustained strategic focus on this area. The alleged repulsion of a Ukrainian offensive on Dzerzhinsk during the ceasefire, if true, would support the Russian narrative of Ukrainian violations and highlight the importance of maintaining control in that area.
The large-scale Russian drone attack and continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes highlight Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant number of drones, coupled with the reported destruction of Russian air defense systems by Ukrainian forces, indicates an ongoing air and electronic warfare battle. The reported use of a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones, allegedly with foreign components, suggests Russia is adapting its tactics and may be seeking to circumvent sanctions or utilize readily available technology, posing an evolving threat that requires updated countermeasures. Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian HIMARS in Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represent a strategic success in countering Ukrainian long-range precision strike capabilities. The claim of a Ukrainian successful drone strike on the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, if confirmed, represents a significant strategic impact on Russian military production and logistical capabilities. Russian military bloggers discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare and the need for better equipment and coordination within the Russian military suggests recognition of Ukrainian drone effectiveness and ongoing efforts to adapt tactically. The scale of the Russian drone attack (108 UAVs) underscores their continued capability and intent to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. The reported loss of 102 Ukrainian UAVs in the Kharkiv operational zone highlights the intensity of drone warfare in that area. The Russian Ministry of Defense claiming to have destroyed a large number of Ukrainian UAVs, JDAM bombs, and HIMARS reinforces their narrative of successful air defense and countering Western military aid.
The diplomatic exchanges and public statements from leaders like Donald Trump and Russian officials underscore the continued international dimension of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to find a path towards negotiation. The divergent positions on the conditions for a ceasefire highlight the deep-seated disagreements that remain. Andriy Yermak's comments on the necessity of a prior ceasefire for negotiations and his focus on Putin as the key decision-maker provide insight into Ukraine's diplomatic strategy and its assessment of the Russian leadership's willingness to engage in substantive talks. ISW's analysis suggests Russia is using the idea of negotiations to buy time and continue its offensive, reinforcing the need for caution in diplomatic engagements. Brazilian President Lula da Silva's offer to mediate indicates ongoing international interest in a peaceful resolution, though the effectiveness of this offer is uncertain. The claim by a Ukrainian deputy of secret high-level talks since 2022 suggests that informal communication channels may exist despite public posturing, which could be strategically relevant for future de-escalation efforts. The Bloomberg report on potential EU/US sanctions if Russia doesn't cease fire today indicates potential international pressure, although its impact remains to be seen. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's conversation with Pope Leo XIV demonstrates Ukraine's continued efforts to engage international actors on humanitarian issues and peace efforts, and his invitation to the Pope is a strategic move to gain further international support.
Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage, is a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions and suggests a potential expansion of Russian hostile activities beyond Ukraine's borders. This development requires heightened vigilance and coordination among NATO allies to deter and respond to such actions. Russia's stated intention to respond to Poland's actions confirms the diplomatic fallout and the likelihood of reciprocal measures. The report of a protest by Polish carriers potentially blocking a key border crossing for an extended period would have significant strategic implications for logistics and supply lines to Ukraine.
Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area warrant close monitoring and intelligence analysis to determine the nature and intent of these movements. This could indicate preparations for offensive actions in the south or simply logistical resupply, but it represents a potential area of increased risk.
The detention of Russian agents in Rivne Oblast for an attempted terrorist attack underscores the ongoing internal security threats faced by Ukraine and the importance of effective counterintelligence efforts to prevent destabilization and gather intelligence on Russian networks within the country. The details provided by Ukraine's National Police highlight the specific target (police investigation team) and the methods used, indicating a direct attempt to undermine Ukrainian law enforcement and create chaos.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and damage on both sides of the front line highlights the devastating humanitarian impact of the conflict and the ongoing violation of international humanitarian law. Prioritizing minimizing civilian harm and collateral damage remains a critical ethical and strategic imperative. The report of a drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast is a stark example of the targeting of civilian essential services and personnel. The reported civilian fatalities and injuries in Kherson and Donetsk Oblasts due to alleged drone strikes and shelling underscore the ongoing threat to civilians and the potential for violations of international law. The report of alleged Ukrainian drone strikes causing civilian casualties in Kherson Oblast is a significant claim with humanitarian and strategic implications.
The ongoing fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment like drones and thermal imagers suggest that while the Russian state provides significant resources, there may still be gaps in supply at the unit level, and public support plays a role in bridging these gaps. The fundraising efforts by both Russian and Ukrainian units underscore the attritional nature of the conflict and the constant need for resources.
The reported self-dissolution of the PKK could have regional implications, particularly for Turkey, and might indirectly influence the broader geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict. Рыбарь's analysis of the PKK decision suggests a diplomatic resolution rather than a military defeat, which could have implications for Turkish military operations in northern Iraq.
The delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to Russia indicates their continued efforts to maintain and modernize their air force, which remains a significant factor in the conflict. This is a strategic asset for Russia's air power projection.
The report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, coupled with previous similar incidents, suggests potential technical challenges or errors in the use of guided munitions by Russian forces. This could have implications for the effectiveness of their air strikes and potentially pose risks to their own territory.
The US-China trade truce is a significant international economic development that could have broader geopolitical implications, although its direct impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not immediately clear.
The reported rocket threat in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts, although later lifted, indicates that areas beyond the immediate front lines remain vulnerable to Russian missile strikes, necessitating continued air defense preparedness across a wide area.
The report of the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat, linked by Russian sources to Ukraine, is a strategic narrative promoted by Russia to portray Ukraine as supporting terrorism and to justify internal security measures. ASTRA's report linking the detained teenagers to the "Freedom of Russia Legion" adds another layer to the Russian narrative and could be used to discredit this group.
The continued Russian drone and KAB attacks on frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the ongoing threat to civilians and infrastructure in these areas and underscore the need for continued defensive measures.
The relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast suggests a perceived improvement in the security situation in certain areas, which could be strategically relevant for assessing the effectiveness of defensive operations in those specific areas.
Russian claims of using anti-drone systems like the "net launcher" indicate their strategic efforts to counter Ukraine's effective use of UAVs, an important aspect of the ongoing technological and tactical adaptation in the conflict.
The European Commission's investment in Ukraine's defense industry is a long-term strategic commitment to bolstering Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts and potentially reduce reliance on external aid over time.
The return of Ukrainian prisoners of war is a critical humanitarian and strategic process, with implications for morale, intelligence gathering, and potential future exchanges. The report from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade highlighting the return of two soldiers on May 6th provides specific details and emphasizes the ongoing nature of these exchanges and the efforts to support returning personnel.
The report on the rehabilitation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Dnipro highlights the strategic importance of medical support and reintegration efforts to maintain the strength and morale of the armed forces.
The meeting between the Ukrainian and Norwegian Chiefs of Defence underscores the continued high-level international military cooperation and the importance of sustained support and coordination for Ukraine's defense.
The incident in Mogilev, Belarus, regarding schoolgirls showing disrespect to Victory Day fireworks highlights the cultural and political significance of Victory Day in Russia and allied countries and the potential for internal social and political issues related to the conflict and its associated symbolism.
The potential blocking of the "Yahodyn - Dorohusk" border crossing by Polish carriers for an extended period would have significant strategic implications for logistics and supply lines to Ukraine, potentially impacting the flow of military aid and other essential goods.
The Russian State Duma planning legislation to exempt participants of the "special military operation" from land and transport taxes indicates a strategic effort to provide incentives and support for military personnel, potentially aimed at boosting morale and recruitment.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claiming to have detected and engaged a Russian infantry group in the enemy rear highlights Ukraine's capability to conduct operations behind enemy lines, which is strategically valuable for intelligence gathering and disrupting enemy activities.
The continued Russian launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast indicate the sustained use of guided aerial bombs as a tactical tool in this area, requiring ongoing countermeasures from Ukrainian forces.
The discussion on tactical medicine in the Russian military, specifically regarding antibiotic usage, suggests a focus on improving medical support for combat personnel, which is strategically relevant for maintaining force effectiveness and minimizing casualties.
The Ukrainian video claiming to show a Russian vehicle being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone underscores the continued importance of drone warfare and the vulnerability of ground transport to such attacks.
Russian military bloggers discussing efforts to improve anti-drone warfare and the need for better equipment and coordination highlights the strategic importance of this aspect of the conflict and the ongoing technological competition.
The discussion by Alex Parker Returns regarding the potential gift of a Boeing 747-8 to Donald Trump from Qatar, in exchange for recognizing Palestine, introduces a geopolitical element that could have indirect strategic implications for US foreign policy and relationships in the Middle East, potentially influencing the broader international context of the Ukraine conflict.
The call by former "people's governor of Donbas" Pavel Gubarev for Russian military personnel to mutiny if the war is frozen is a significant internal development that could indicate fissures within the pro-war faction in Russia and poses a potential long-term internal security threat.
The report of a veteran in Cheboksary, Russia, facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front highlights potential challenges with veteran reintegration and support in Russia, which could impact morale and recruitment efforts and potentially lead to social instability.
The reduction in limits for bank transfers in Ukraine from June 1, 2025, could have implications for financial transactions and potentially impact the informal economy or methods of transferring funds, which could be strategically relevant for both civilian and military activities.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's conversation with Pope Leo XIV is a diplomatic effort to leverage religious and humanitarian influence for peace and the return of deported children, highlighting a focus on non-military avenues for addressing aspects of the conflict.
The alleged activities of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) in Ukraine, as described by a local resident, if indicative of widespread practices, could have implications for public perception of mobilization efforts and potentially impact social stability.
The reported destruction of a significant portion of Russian agricultural harvests due to frost could have strategic implications for food security and the Russian economy, potentially impacting domestic stability and resource allocation.

Situation Report