Sitrep 2025-05-11 20:17:12

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 20:16 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat on key fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and persistent Russian aerial activity, with ongoing reports of drone and guided aerial bomb usage. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in countering Russian drone activity and have reported successful strikes against Russian military equipment and personnel. Russian information operations remain robust, centered around Victory Day narratives, promoting internal unity, and attempting to influence perceptions of the conflict and negotiation prospects. Diplomatic discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations are ongoing and appear to be gaining traction, with public statements from both Ukrainian and US leaders. New information highlights continued civilian casualties and damage from shelling and drone attacks in various regions of Ukraine. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and potential dissent, are also reported. Poland is undertaking a significant military modernization effort, which is analyzed by Russian sources in the context of future conflict with Russia. Significant focus remains on potential negotiations in Turkey, with conflicting statements on the feasibility and conditions of a ceasefire. Reports indicate intense ground combat in the Kursk border region and near the Antonovsky Bridge. Ukrainian drone attacks are still targeting Russian industrial and military facilities, leading to temporary disruptions at airports. Ukrainian forces continue offensive actions in the Kursk border region, specifically targeting Tetkino from three directions. Russian sources report ongoing heavy fighting and Ukrainian attempts to break through Russian defenses in this area. Russian information operations are actively countering perceived negative narratives regarding the conflict and negotiations. Russian domestic issues, including crime involving migrants, are being highlighted by pro-Russian sources. Russian military postal services are delivering mail to front-line troops. Ukrainian forces are actively distributing surrender leaflets to Russian positions. Air raid alerts and reports of drone and missile activity continue across various Ukrainian oblasts, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Continued Ukrainian Offensive in Kursk Oblast: "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the enemy continues their offensive on Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, from three directions (Bessalovka, Ryzhevka, and Ryzhevsky forest). This indicates continued Ukrainian ground actions aimed at penetrating the Russian border.
Confirmation of Intense Fighting in Tetkino: The same source confirms that VDV (Russian Airborne Forces) fighters are repelling the attacks and that fierce battles are ongoing. This provides a specific location and unit involved in the current ground combat in Kursk Oblast.
Increased Detail on Ukrainian Attack Axes in Kursk: The report specifies the three directions of Ukrainian attacks on Tetkino, providing tactical details on the assault (from Bessalovka towards Zarya, from Ryzhevka towards the railway station, and from Ryzhevsky forest towards Chapaeva street). This level of detail is crucial for understanding the tactical situation in this area.
Internal Russian Dissent and Information Control: "Два майора" criticizes a statement by Pavel Gubarev, a well-known Donbas activist, who allegedly misinterpreted negotiation talks and criticized the Russian government. This highlights potential internal dissent or differing opinions within the pro-Russian community regarding the conflict and political leadership, and the efforts by other pro-Russian sources to control this narrative.
Russian Military Fundraising for Armor: "Два майора" is fundraising for "Frontline Armor," specifically seeking steel for producing armor kits for military vehicles. This suggests a continued need for resources to protect Russian military equipment and implies that official supply channels may not be fully meeting the demand, highlighting potential logistical or production challenges.
Russian Military Postal Service Activity: "Воин DV" shares a video showing specialists of the field post delivering mail to servicemen in the "Northern Military District" zone. This highlights a logistical and morale-boosting activity by the Russian military.
Russian Military Blogger Promoting Unit Identity and Morale: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photos of a kitten with a VDV-themed watermark, using informal language and wishing a "good and safe night" to his audience, including a provocative message to Ukrainians. This is an example of a Russian military blogger engaging in morale-building and promoting a specific unit identity. The mention of "night duty" also provides a brief glimpse into operational activities.
Observation of Drone Tactics on Dnipropetrovsk Direction: "Два майора" reports on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, noting the heavy presence of enemy drones being used to "cut off the front line from the near rear." This describes a specific tactical application of drones by Ukrainian forces (or forces operating against Russia in this direction) aimed at isolating forward positions from support.
Continued Russian Aerial and Missile Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones from the north towards Chernihiv Oblast, repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast, a reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast (with means engaged for its destruction), missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (potentially acting as spotters), and strike UAVs in the northeastern part of Chernihiv Oblast and central Sumy Oblast. These reports indicate a continuation of Russian aerial and missile activity targeting various regions of Ukraine.
Widespread Ukrainian PSYOP Leaflet Distribution: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shares a video showing special units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces distributing leaflets with instructions on how to surrender. This highlights an active and widespread psychological operation (PSYOP) by Ukraine targeting Russian soldiers on the front lines and in rear areas, aimed at encouraging defections and surrender. The mention of successful surrenders on islands near Kherson reinforces the claimed effectiveness of this tactic.
Allegations of Russian Special Services Involvement in Sabotage in Poland: RBC-Ukraine reports Polish Prime Minister Tusk's statement that Russian special services ordered the arson of a large shopping center in Warsaw a year ago, with some culprits apprehended and others identified. This is a significant accusation of Russian state-sponsored sabotage within a NATO country.
Reports of Oil Well Fires in Russia: STERNENKO reports two oil well fires in the Yamalo-Nenets Okrug in Russia, with one tower collapsing. While the cause is not specified as military action, such incidents can impact Russian energy production.
Discussion of New Russian Drone Navigation Software: Colonelcassad reports on Maxar Intelligence's new "Raptor" software, which uses machine vision and 3D mapping from satellite imagery to enable drone navigation and targeting without GPS, enhancing resilience against electronic warfare. The software can also identify objective patterns and integrate drones with other military systems. This represents a significant technological advancement in drone warfare.
Civilian Casualties and Crime in Russia Highlighted by Pro-Russian Source: Alex Parker Returns shares a graphic report of a murder and alleged rape in Perm, Russia, involving foreign citizens ("таджики"). This highlights a domestic Russian issue being used by pro-Russian sources to potentially fuel anti-immigrant sentiment or criticize government policies.
Pro-Russian Source Accuses Ukrainian Forces of Destroying Flowers in Odesa: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming "Nazis" in Odesa are destroying flowers laid at a memorial. This is a clear information operation attempting to portray Ukrainian forces negatively.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Chasiv Yar, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Shakhtyorsk Direction, Dzerzhinsk, Novopavlivka, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Siversk, Stara Mykolaivka, Vodiane Druhe, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotliarivka, Troitske, Andriivka, Bahatyr, Kostiantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Donetsk Oblast. Voenkor Kotenok provides detailed updates on the Pokrovsk direction, mentioning control of parts of Udachne, ongoing counterattacks in Udachne and Kotlino, advances east of the Kotlino industrial zone towards Zverevo, attacks in Zverevo, meeting engagements in Leontovichy/Pershe Travnya, and control of Peschanoye and Shevchenko. Ukrainian General Staff reports 65 combat engagements in the Pokrovsk direction, 31 in the Novopavlivka direction, 15 in the Toretsk direction, 10 in the Kramatorsk direction, 8 in the Siversk direction, and 20 in the Lyman direction over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports high Russian losses in personnel and equipment on the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian General Staff reports strikes on seven areas of enemy concentration, one UAV control point, and three artillery systems. Ukrainian Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs on the north of Donetsk Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Rylsk, Tetkino, Novy Put', Sudzha operational zone, Bessalovka, Ryzhevka, Zarya, Ryzhevsky forest, Chapaeva street): Remains an area of active conflict with reported Ukrainian attacks and attempts to penetrate the border. Operation Z and ASTRA report the city of Rylsk was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS, hitting a hotel and car wash, with casualties being clarified. ASTRA reports, citing Ukrainian sources, that the strike in Rylsk hit a Russian Armed Forces operational headquarters, and that military personnel might be under the rubble. Two Mayors shares a video of the acting Governor of Kursk Oblast showing the consequences of the strike in Rylsk. TASS confirms a hotel was damaged and three people were injured in the attack on Rylsk. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms three people were injured and three cars were damaged in the Rylsk shelling by HIMARS. Военкор Котенок updates on the Rylsk strike, confirming four injured civilians, three seriously. ASTRA provides detailed injury and damage information for Rylsk. Ukrainian General Staff reports eight enemy attacks, two air strikes (four KABs), and 134 artillery shellings (eight MLRS) in the Kursk operational zone over the past day. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming the impact on the location of Russian occupiers in Rylsk. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports ongoing Ukrainian offensive on Tetkino from Bessalovka, Ryzhevka, and Ryzhevsky forest, with VDV forces repelling attacks and fierce battles.
Sumy Oblast (including Tetkino, Bessalovka, Ryzhevka): Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs and likely other means) and shelling of border settlements. Russian MoD claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Bessalovka and Pavlovka for not observing the ceasefire. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast. Launches of KABs are detected towards Sumy Oblast. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports Ukrainian infantry from Sumy Oblast are involved in the offensive on Tetkino. Ukrainian Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast, with means engaged for its destruction. RBC-Ukraine reports on the reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in the central part of Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Two Mayors reports a 17-year-old boy was injured by a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a moving car in the village of Borki, Valuysky district, and has been transported to the hospital. This indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity impacting civilian vehicles in border regions.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports six enemy attacks repelled in the Orikhiv direction over the past day. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). RBC-Ukraine reports on the missile danger. Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, potentially acting as spotters, with means engaged for their destruction.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy attempted to advance one time without success on the Pridniprovskyi direction over the past day. "Два майора" reports on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, noting the heavy presence and tactics of enemy drones.
Chernihiv Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones from the north towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs on the northeastern part of Chernihiv Oblast.
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs in Kherson Oblast. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that there were many cases of Russian occupiers surrendering on the islands opposite Kherson after the distribution of surrender leaflets.
Yemen: RBK-Ukraina reports that the Israeli military has called for the evacuation of three key ports controlled by Houthis. This is a separate regional conflict but noteworthy in the global security context.
Gaza: RBK-Ukraina reports Hamas announced the release of a US-Israeli soldier, potentially towards a ceasefire. This is related to the conflict in Gaza. RBK-Ukraina reports Netanyаhu believes Hamas will release the soldier as a gesture of goodwill towards Trump and is open to a narrower deal. Alex Parker Returns discusses the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and criticism of Israel's actions.
Transbaikal Krai (Russia): ASTRA reports widespread forest fires, with homes destroyed, people evacuated, and a state of emergency declared. This is a significant internal Russian issue.
Amur Oblast (Russia): ASTRA reports a difficult fire situation in the neighboring Amur Oblast as well. This indicates a regional internal Russian issue related to natural disasters.
Warsaw (Poland): Polish Prime Minister Tusk claims a shopping mall fire was ordered by Russian special services. This is a significant accusation of state-sponsored sabotage.
Yamalo-Nenets Okrug (Russia): Reports of two oil well fires, with one tower collapsing.
Perm (Russia): Alex Parker Returns reports on a murder and alleged rape involving foreign citizens.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Continued widespread use of drones by both sides. Two Mayors reports a Ukrainian FPV drone attack in Belgorod Oblast injuring a teenager. STERNENKO shares a video claiming an FPV drone "dug up" a Russian soldier in a trench and killed him. This is visual evidence of the tactical impact of FPV drones against entrenched personnel. Dnevnik Desantnika is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ is fundraising for Mavic drones. This highlights continued reliance on and need for drones by both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy used 1262 kamikaze drones and Ukrainian forces destroyed 32 UAVs and one UAV control point over the past day. Colonelcassad reports on Maxar's new "Raptor" software for advanced drone navigation and targeting. Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones from the north towards Chernihiv Oblast, a reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast (with means engaged for its destruction), reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (potentially acting as spotters), and strike UAVs in the northeastern part of Chernihiv Oblast and central Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports on the reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast and reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Donetsk, and Kherson Oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert due to potential drone activity. "Два майора" reports a heavy presence of enemy drones on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shares a video showing the distribution of surrender leaflets by drones.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast. This confirms the continued use of this destructive weapon by Russian forces. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 39 air strikes, dropping 68 guided aerial bombs over the past day, including four KABs in the Kursk operational zone. Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast.
Missile Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target in the southwest direction in Sumy Oblast, potentially indicating missile activity. Operation Z and ASTRA report the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS. TASS and Dnevnik Desantnika confirm the HIMARS shelling of Rylsk. Военкор Котенок and ASTRA provide updated casualty and damage information from the Rylsk HIMARS strike. Ukrainian General Staff reports eight MLRS shellings in the Kursk operational zone over the past day. Two Mayors discusses information about a new Russian cruise missile "Banderol," its alleged specifications, and components. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert due to potential missile activity. RBC-Ukraine reports on the missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Aviation Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern and eastern directions, with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline oblasts. They also report launches of guided aerial bombs from tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast. This indicates continued Russian close air support and strike capabilities. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 39 air strikes over the past day, including two in the Kursk operational zone.
Naval Activity: No significant changes in naval activity directly related to the Ukraine conflict are reported in the latest messages. RBK-Ukraina reports on the Israeli military's call for the evacuation of three key ports in Yemen controlled by Houthis, indicating activity in a separate maritime theater.
Air Defense Activity: While not explicitly stated as air defense activity, the fundraising efforts for drones by both sides, and the Ukrainian Air Force's report of engaging an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast (from previous reporting), imply ongoing efforts to counter aerial threats. The fact that HIMARS rockets hit targets in Rylsk suggests that Russian air defense in that specific area was either ineffective or not engaged. Ukrainian General Staff reports destroying 32 UAVs and one UAV control point. Colonelcassad's report on Maxar's Raptor software highlights advancements in drone navigation and targeting designed to counter electronic warfare. Ukrainian Air Force reports means engaged for the destruction of reconnaissance UAVs in southern Sumy Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's public statement setting May 15th in Turkey as the date and location for potential negotiations with Putin, contingent on a "full and lasting ceasefire" starting May 12th, remains a key diplomatic development. (Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Оперативний ЗSU, РБК-Україна) Operation Z reports that Zelenskyy will arrive in Turkey regardless of whether Russia observes the ceasefire, citing Axios. This adds a layer of complexity to the situation, suggesting Ukraine is willing to pursue the meeting even without the immediate ceasefire. Peskоv's demand to halt arms supplies to Ukraine as a condition for a ceasefire, as reported by STERNENKO, highlights the significant gap between Ukrainian and Russian conditions. Rybar and Starshaya Edda dismiss the Western ceasefire proposal as an ultimatum and not a genuine path to peace on Russian terms. Starshaya Edda also outlines Russian conditions for real peace talks, including the fate of Russian territories and the rights of Russians in Ukraine, placing a ceasefire lower on the priority list. Alex Parker Returns discusses a statement from a Trump representative regarding Israel's potential openness to a narrower Gaza ceasefire deal but not ending the war.
Ukraine-International Relations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is making a public statement regarding his willingness to meet Putin in Turkey for negotiations, contingent on a ceasefire. This is a direct diplomatic move. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha commented on the potential meeting (from previous reporting). Ukraine continues to receive and request military aid, as evidenced by ongoing fundraising efforts for drones and previous reports of Western military support. (Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Оперативний ЗSU, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns)
Russia-International Relations: Russian sources are commenting on Zelenskyy's proposal negatively. TASS highlights Russian cosmonauts holding an "Immortal Regiment" event on the ISS, linking space exploration to WWII victory (from previous reporting). TASS reports the death of former head of the Central Bank of Russia, Viktor Gerashchenko (from previous reporting). Dnevnik Desantnika shares a video featuring Macron and Merz, framed negatively and alleging suspicious activity (from previous reporting). Fighterbomber portrays Zelenskyy's negotiation proposal negatively and outlines Russia's planned approach to talks (from previous reporting). STERNENKO and РБК-Україна report that the US and China have reached significant progress in trade negotiations in Geneva, with details to be announced tomorrow. This is a globally significant economic development, though not directly related to the Ukraine conflict. Rybar discusses British pressure on Russia's "shadow fleet" through sanctions and tanker detention threats, indicating economic warfare. Alex Parker Returns frames Azerbaijan's decision not to attend Victory Day commemorations as a consequence of unresolved issues with Moscow.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has publicly stated he will be in Turkey on May 15th and expects Putin to be there for negotiations, contingent on a ceasefire. This puts Turkey in a central position for potential talks. (Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Оперативний ЗSU, РБК-Україна)
US-China Relations: STERNENKO and Operativny ZSU report significant progress in US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, with details to be announced tomorrow. This is a major global economic development.
Middle East Diplomacy: RBK-Ukraina reports on the Israeli military's call for the evacuation of three key ports in Yemen controlled by Houthis. RBK-Ukraina reports Hamas announced the release of a US-Israeli soldier, potentially towards a ceasefire in Gaza. RBK-Ukraina reports Netanyаhu believes Hamas will release the soldier as a gesture of goodwill towards Trump and is open to a narrower deal. Alex Parker Returns discusses the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and criticism of Israel's actions. These developments highlight ongoing diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, which could have indirect implications for global attention and the involvement of key international actors.
Azerbaijan-Russia Relations: Alex Parker Returns highlights Azerbaijan's decision not to attend Victory Day commemorations in Moscow due to unresolved bilateral issues. This suggests a potential cooling of relations.
Poland-Russia Relations: Polish Prime Minister Tusk's accusation that Russian special services ordered a shopping mall fire in Warsaw is a significant political development, indicating heightened tensions and accusations of Russian state-sponsored actions in Poland. RBC-Ukraine reports on this accusation.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Two Mayors reports a 17-year-old boy was injured by a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a moving car in the village of Borki, Valuysky district, Belgorod Oblast, and has been transported to the hospital. This highlights the ongoing risk to civilians in border regions from Ukrainian drone activity. Operation Z, ASTRA, TASS, and Dnevnik Desantnika report the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS, hitting a hotel and car wash, with casualties being clarified. This suggests Ukrainian use of MLRS against targets in Russia, causing damage to civilian infrastructure and potential civilian casualties, impacting internal security in border areas. Военкор Котенок and ASTRA provide updated casualty and damage information from the Rylsk HIMARS strike, confirming four injured civilians, three seriously. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian M-577 near the Sumy border (from previous reporting). ASTRA reports widespread forest fires in Transbaikal Krai, with homes destroyed and people evacuated, and a state of emergency declared. This is a significant internal issue related to natural disasters and potentially arson. ASTRA also reports a difficult fire situation in neighboring Amur Oblast. Reports of two oil well fires in the Yamalo-Nenets Okrug. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports ongoing Ukrainian offensive on Tetkino, highlighting active combat on Russian territory. "Два майора" criticizes Pavel Gubarev's statement, highlighting potential internal dissent or disagreements regarding the political situation and the conflict. Alex Parker Returns reports on a murder and alleged rape in Perm, Russia, involving foreign citizens ("таджики"), highlighting domestic security concerns and potentially fueling anti-immigrant sentiment.
Casualties: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (OVA) reports Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes on the Velykomykhailivska community in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring two men, one severely (from previous reporting). Два майора reports a 17-year-old boy was injured by a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a moving car in the village of Borki, Valuysky district, Belgorod Oblast. Operation Z, ASTRA, TASS, and Dnevnik Desantnika report the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS, with casualties being clarified. Военкор Котенок and ASTRA provide updated casualty and damage information from the Rylsk HIMARS strike, confirming four injured civilians, three seriously. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a graphic video reportedly showing a Russian soldier being killed by a drone strike (from previous reporting). STERNENKO shares a video claiming an FPV drone killed a Russian soldier in a trench. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day include 1310 personnel killed or irreversibly lost, highlighting significant overall attrition. Ukrainian General Staff reports high Russian losses in personnel and equipment on the Pokrovsk direction, with 368 casualties (193 irreversible), underscoring significant localized casualties. These reports highlight ongoing casualties on both sides.
Information Control and Propaganda: Alex Parker Returns shares content promoting a "satirical" anti-Ukrainian Telegram channel and uses derogatory language (from previous reporting). This is a clear example of information operations aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians and entertaining a pro-Russian audience. Dnevnik Desantnika shares a video from London portraying Ukrainians in a parade negatively and using the term "Ukro-Nazis" (from previous reporting). This is another example of information operations aiming to demonize Ukrainians and influence perceptions abroad. TASS highlights Russian cosmonauts holding an "Immortal Regiment" event on the ISS, linking space exploration to WWII victory (from previous reporting). This is part of the broader Russian effort to tie the current conflict to historical narratives of victory. Fighterbomber portrays Zelenskyy's negotiation proposal negatively, framing it as an attempt to create "slander and personal attacks" and stating that Russia will send a delegation of "professional specialists" (from previous reporting). This is a direct response to Zelenskyy's statement and serves to dismiss his proposal while reinforcing Russia's intended approach to negotiations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a large "DNR" flag was unfurled in the center of occupied Donetsk in preparation for "Day of the Republic" (from previous reporting). This is a symbolic act of propaganda in occupied territory. Два майора shares a video presenting an interview with a Ukrainian prisoner of war, portraying him as "forcibly mobilized" and critical of Ukrainian authorities (TCC) (from previous reporting). The narrative focuses on the prisoner's alleged desire to fight against Ukrainian authorities after the war and claims that Ukrainian prisoners are being sent to assault units without armor, highlighting internal Ukrainian issues and potential personnel practices. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video featuring Macron and Merz on a train, framed negatively and alleging suspicious activity ("strange white bundle," "similar spoon-like device"), which is likely an information operation aimed at discrediting Western leaders (from previous reporting). Colonelcassad provides commentary on Trump's statements regarding WWII, aligning them with a pro-Russian narrative (from previous reporting). Rybar's video summary reinforces the Russian narrative of Ukrainian violations and dismisses the Western ceasefire proposal. Starshaya Edda engages in strong rhetorical attacks against Zelenskyy and outlines hardline Russian positions. Alex Parker Returns discusses criticism of Israel from a Russian perspective, likely as part of broader information operations. "Два майора" criticizes Pavel Gubarev's statement, framing it as "nonsense" and suggesting it could attract the attention of authorities, which is a form of information control and signaling against perceived dissent. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" uses informal and provocative language in his post, including a message directed at Ukrainians, which is a form of psychological engagement and information operation. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying flowers in Odesa, which is a clear attempt to portray them negatively and support the Russian narrative of fighting "Nazis." Alex Parker Returns reporting on a crime involving foreign citizens in Russia could be used to support specific political narratives or policies within Russia.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian M-577 near the Sumy border using drone strikes (from previous reporting). This demonstrates Russian capabilities in countering border incursions using drones. Operation Z, ASTRA, TASS, and Dnevnik Desantnika report the city of Rylsk was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS. This indicates Ukrainian capabilities to strike targets in Russia using MLRS. Военкор Котенок and ASTRA provide updated casualty and damage information from the Rylsk HIMARS strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a graphic video reportedly showing a Russian soldier being killed by a drone strike (from previous reporting). This is direct evidence of the impact of drone warfare on Russian personnel. Два майора shares a video presenting an interview with a Ukrainian prisoner of war, highlighting claims about Ukrainian personnel practices (forcible mobilization, use of prisoners in assault units) from a Russian perspective (from previous reporting). This could be used to frame the Russian military as more organized or ethical by contrast. Voenkor Kotenok's critical assessment of the current Russian military approach being unsustainable due to slow technological progress and the treatment of infantry provides a rare critical assessment from within the pro-Russian military blogger community. This offers valuable insight into potential internal debates or concerns about Russian military effectiveness. Rybar characterizes the Russian approach in maritime communications as needing to be "unconventional" due to British pressure on the "shadow fleet." Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day, including 1310 personnel, and significant equipment (4 tanks, 7 AFVs, 49 artillery, 1 air defense, 36 drones, 106 vehicles), highlighting ongoing attrition. Ukrainian General Staff reports 196 combat engagements over the past day, with details for various directions. Ukrainian General Staff highlights the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking seven areas of enemy concentration, one UAV control point, and three artillery systems. Colonelcassad reports on Maxar's new "Raptor" software for advanced drone navigation and targeting. Two Mayors discusses information about a new Russian cruise missile "Banderol" and its components. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that VDV fighters are repelling Ukrainian attacks on Tetkino, indicating the involvement and performance of this specific Russian unit. "Два майора" is fundraising for armor for military vehicles, suggesting a need for enhanced protection for Russian equipment. "Два майора" reports on the use of enemy drones to "cut off the front line from the near rear" on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, highlighting a tactical challenge faced by Russian forces.
Domestic Issues: ТАСС reports the death of former head of the Central Bank of Russia, Viktor Gerashchenko (from previous reporting). This is a domestic news item. ASTRA reports widespread forest fires in Transbaikal Krai and Amur Oblast, highlighting a significant internal issue. Reports of two oil well fires in the Yamalo-Nenets Okrug. Alex Parker Returns reports on a murder and alleged rape in Perm, Russia, involving foreign citizens.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for Mavic 3T and Mavic Pro drones for a unit on the Bakhmut direction (from previous reporting). This highlights ongoing efforts to equip Ukrainian forces, particularly with crucial drone technology. Оперативний ЗСУ is fundraising for drones, explicitly stating that fundraising is slow and asking for support to help save soldiers' lives and eliminate occupiers. This underscores the continued need for external support and the direct link between donations and operational capabilities. STERNENKO is fundraising for drones (Apachi team), using graphic video and aggressive language to motivate donations. Ukrainian General Staff highlights the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units, implying ongoing support and training. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shares a video showing the distribution of surrender leaflets, which is a form of psychological support aimed at the opposing force.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (OVA) reports Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes on the Velykomykhailivska community in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring two men, one severely (from previous reporting). This highlights the ongoing impact of Russian attacks on civilians and the need for humanitarian assistance.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): ТАСС highlights Russian cosmonauts holding an "Immortal Regiment" event on the ISS, linking space exploration to WWII victory (from previous reporting). This is a symbolic act intended to boost morale and connect the current conflict to historical narratives. Dnevnik Desantnika is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ is fundraising for Mavic drones, asking for support from "Dear Russians" to help their fighters. This demonstrates the continued reliance on public and volunteer support to equip Russian forces. Dnevnik Desantnika reports that fundraising is slow and expresses shame in constantly asking, highlighting potential challenges in maintaining public enthusiasm for supporting the military. "Два майора" is fundraising for armor for military vehicles, indicating support efforts for providing protection to Russian forces. "Воин DV" shares a video showing the delivery of mail to front-line servicemen, highlighting logistical support for morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a post with a morale-boosting tone and a picture of a kitten, potentially aimed at his unit or audience.
Civilian Support (Russia): Два майора reports a 17-year-old boy was injured by a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a moving car in the village of Borki, Valuysky district, Belgorod Oblast, and has been transported to the hospital. This highlights the impact of Ukrainian attacks on civilians in border regions and the need for medical support. Operation Z, ASTRA, TASS, and Dnevnik Desantnika report the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, was shelled, likely by Ukrainian HIMARS, with hits on a hotel and car wash, and casualties being clarified. Военкор Котенок and ASTRA provide updated casualty and damage information from the Rylsk HIMARS strike, confirming four injured civilians, three seriously. This also indicates the impact on civilian infrastructure and potential casualties. ASTRA reports widespread forest fires in Transbaikal Krai and Amur Oblast, with homes destroyed and people evacuated, requiring significant resources for disaster relief.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continuing offensive operations and significant aerial strikes, including guided aerial bombs (KABs) and drone strikes. Utilizing tactical aviation and likely artillery and MLRS. Engaging in information operations to control narratives and demoralize the opposing side. Facing Ukrainian drone attacks and HIMARS shelling in border regions. Experiencing losses of personnel from drone strikes (as seen in the graphic video). Using guided aerial bombs in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts (from previous reporting), and now also in Donetsk Oblast. Utilizing tactical aviation on the northeastern and eastern directions. Deploying reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast (from previous reporting), and now also in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson Oblasts. Experiencing personnel losses from drone strikes (from previous reporting) and FPV drone attacks (latest report). Engaging in information operations and propaganda, with specific messaging around the ceasefire and Victory Day. Using drones to counter Ukrainian border incursions (from previous reporting). Likely utilizing artillery and MLRS in ongoing ground combat. The claim of Russian forces approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk and reports of intense battles on the Dnipropetrovsk direction near the border (from previous reports) suggest a potential new area of offensive operations. According to ASTRA, citing Ukrainian sources, a Russian operational headquarters was targeted in Rylsk, implying the presence of command and control elements in border areas. Voenkor Kotenok expresses concern about the current military approach, highlighting slow technological progress and treating infantry as expendable, which may indicate tactical or strategic shortcomings. Rybar characterizes the Russian approach in maritime communications as needing to be "unconventional" due to British pressure on the "shadow fleet." Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 196 combat engagements, 39 air strikes (68 KABs), used 1262 kamikaze drones, and conducted 3821 shellings over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports significant estimated Russian losses in personnel and equipment over the past day. Voenkor Kotenok provides detailed tactical information on the Pokrovsk direction, mentioning control of specific areas within settlements, ongoing counterattacks, and advances. Two Mayors discusses a new Russian cruise missile "Banderol," its specifications, and components. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that VDV fighters are repelling Ukrainian attacks on Tetkino, indicating the involvement of airborne forces in defending border areas. "Два майора" reports on the use of enemy drones to "cut off the front line from the near rear" on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, describing a specific tactical challenge faced by Russian forces.
Ukraine: Maintaining defensive positions and conducting limited offensive actions, including drone attacks and HIMARS shelling into Russian territory. Actively countering Russian aerial reconnaissance and drone threats with air defense (from previous reporting). Utilizing FPV drones for tactical engagements. Seeking additional military aid, including drones. Conducting psychological operations using leaflet distribution. Engaging in drone attacks and HIMARS shelling in Russian border regions (Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts). Utilizing air defense to counter Russian UAVs (from previous reporting) and reporting means engaged against reconnaissance and strike UAVs. Deploying FPV drones for tactical engagements, with visual evidence of their effectiveness against personnel. Seeking additional drones (fundraising efforts), highlighting the continued need for these assets. Conducting potential cross-border operations (attempted in Sumy Oblast - from previous reporting) and ongoing offensive on Tetkino in Kursk Oblast. Responding to Russian KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (from previous reporting) and Donetsk Oblast. Conducting tactical aviation activity on the northeastern and eastern directions (as reported by Ukrainian Air Force about Russian activity). Using M-577 armored vehicles for troop transport (as targeted by Russian forces - from previous reporting). According to ASTRA, citing Ukrainian sources, Ukrainian HIMARS targeted a Russian operational headquarters in Rylsk. STERNENKO is fundraising for drones and using graphic content to motivate support. Operativny ZSU is also fundraising for drones, emphasizing the slow pace of donations. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 196 combat engagements over the past day and inflicting significant estimated losses on Russian forces. Ukrainian General Staff highlights the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking seven areas of enemy concentration, one UAV control point, and three artillery systems. A Ukrainian source highlights a nurse's actions in eliminating Russian occupiers with a grenade launcher. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming the impact on the location of Russian occupiers in Rylsk, supporting the targeting of a military headquarters. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports Ukrainian infantry from Sumy Oblast are involved in the offensive on Tetkino, indicating specific units or types of units engaged in cross-border operations. "Два майора" reports on the use of drones by enemy forces to "cut off the front line from the near rear" on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, highlighting a Ukrainian tactical approach. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shares a video showing the distribution of surrender leaflets, highlighting a specific PSYOP tactic.
Western PMCs: Colonelcassad reports the alleged presence of PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain in the Kursk direction, potentially for sabotage missions. This report requires further verification.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's public statement regarding his willingness to meet Putin in Turkey on May 15th, contingent on a ceasefire starting May 12th, represents a significant and bold diplomatic maneuver. It puts pressure on Russia to respond clearly to the ceasefire proposal and positions Ukraine as willing to engage in high-level talks under specific conditions. The explicit setting of a date and location adds a concrete element to the proposal. The condition of a "full and lasting ceasefire" is a critical point for Ukraine, likely aimed at preventing Russia from using negotiations to consolidate territorial gains while continuing hostilities. The report that Zelenskyy will go to Turkey regardless of a ceasefire, while potentially a tactic to ensure the meeting happens, could also be interpreted as a softening of the precondition, which could be a strategic risk or a necessary flexibility to initiate dialogue.
The differing responses to the ceasefire proposal from Ukraine and Russia highlight a fundamental divergence in their approaches to ending the conflict. Ukraine is prioritizing a cessation of violence, while Russia's response (as interpreted by Russian sources) indicates a preference for discussing "root causes" and achieving a settlement based on "realities on the ground," likely implying a recognition of their territorial gains. This disconnect suggests that achieving a genuine ceasefire and meaningful negotiations will be challenging. The Russian framing of Zelenskyy's proposal as a tactic to disrupt talks or as an attempt at "slander and personal attacks" further underscores this difficulty. Peskоv's explicit demand to halt arms supplies to Ukraine as a ceasefire condition makes it clear that Russia views external military aid as a primary obstacle to peace talks and is attempting to leverage a ceasefire to cut off this support. Rybar's characterization of the Western ceasefire proposal as an ultimatum and Starshaya Edda's dismissal of Zelenskyy's sincerity and outlining of hardline Russian conditions further emphasize the current lack of common ground for a diplomatic resolution. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a critical Russian perspective, potentially linked to a Trump representative's statement, highlights how global conflicts are used in information operations and could indirectly influence perceptions of the Ukraine war.
The continued intense combat activity across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast and the Kursk border region (Tetkino), and the persistent Russian aerial and drone strikes, directly contradict any notion of a widespread ceasefire being in effect. Reports of new civilian casualties and infrastructure damage on both sides underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the challenges in protecting civilian populations. The KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts and the FPV drone attack on a civilian car in Belgorod Oblast are stark reminders of the impact of aerial warfare on civilians. Rybar's report of over 14,000 claimed ceasefire violations by Ukraine, while needing independent verification, highlights the narrative being pushed by Russia to portray Ukraine as the aggressor and justify continued hostilities. The detailed reporting by the Ukrainian General Staff on combat engagements across numerous directions and high Russian losses underscores the continued intensity and widespread nature of the fighting. The updated and more detailed casualty and damage information from the Rylsk strike emphasizes the direct impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and civilians. The report of ongoing Ukrainian offensive actions on Tetkino confirms that despite diplomatic discussions, military operations are actively being pursued in border areas.
The claims of Russian forces advancing towards or near the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and reports of intense fighting in that general area, if independently verified, would represent a significant development and potentially indicate a new focus or intensification of Russian offensive efforts aimed at expanding their control or creating new lines of pressure. The KAB strikes reported in Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, align with the possibility of increased Russian activity targeting areas within or near the oblast.
The continued use of drones by both sides for targeting, reconnaissance, and offensive actions remains a defining feature of the conflict. The graphic video showing a Russian soldier killed by a drone strike and the video of an FPV drone killing a soldier in a trench highlight the lethality of these systems. The fundraising efforts by Ukrainian and Russian units for drones underscore their importance for tactical operations. The reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS activity in Russian border regions indicate Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets within Russia, creating pressure and potentially disrupting Russian logistics or command and control. The claim by ASTRA, citing Ukrainian sources, that a Russian operational headquarters was hit in Rylsk by HIMARS, if true, would represent a significant tactical success for Ukraine, potentially disrupting Russian command and control in the border region. Colonelcassad's report on Maxar's "Raptor" software is strategically significant as it highlights a technological leap in drone warfare that could enhance navigation and targeting accuracy, potentially influencing future combat dynamics. Two Mayors' discussion of the new Russian cruise missile "Banderol" also indicates ongoing Russian weapon development and potential new threats to Ukraine. The report of drones being used to "cut off the front line from the near rear" on the Dnipropetrovsk direction describes a specific tactical adaptation to the widespread use of drones. The extensive distribution of surrender leaflets using drones highlights an evolving PSYOP tactic leveraging technology.
Information operations remain a critical component of the conflict, with both sides actively shaping narratives around military actions, diplomatic efforts, and internal issues. Russian efforts to demonize Ukrainians, portray the Ukrainian military negatively (e.g., through the POW interview), and link the current conflict to historical narratives of victory are evident. Countering these narratives effectively is crucial for maintaining international support for Ukraine and influencing public opinion. The negative framing of Western leaders by a Russian military blogger is also part of this effort. Rybar's video summary, focusing on claimed Ukrainian violations and dismissing the Western ceasefire proposal, serves as a clear example of Russian information operations aimed at an internal and pro-Russian audience. Starshaya Edda engages in strong rhetorical attacks against Zelenskyy and outlines hardline Russian positions. The reports on the Israeli military's actions in Yemen and Hamas's release of a soldier, while not directly related to Ukraine, demonstrate how international events are used in information operations to draw comparisons or highlight the involvement of key global actors. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a Russian perspective highlights how global events are leveraged in information warfare. The accusation by Polish Prime Minister Tusk regarding Russian special services ordering a fire in Warsaw is a significant information event with potential diplomatic repercussions. The criticism of Pavel Gubarev by "Два майора" highlights internal information control efforts within the pro-Russian community. The reporting on a crime involving foreign citizens in Russia by Alex Parker Returns could be strategically used to influence domestic sentiment and potentially support specific policies. The distribution of surrender leaflets is a direct information operation aimed at influencing the opposing force. The claim of Ukrainian forces destroying flowers in Odesa is a specific information operation tactic.
The report of the death of former head of the Central Bank of Russia, Viktor Gerashchenko, is a domestic Russian event, but the death of a prominent figure in the Russian financial system could have indirect implications depending on the circumstances and any subsequent political or economic shifts.
The widespread forest fires in Transbaikal Krai and Amur Oblast represent a significant internal issue for Russia, potentially diverting resources and attention from the conflict in Ukraine, and highlighting vulnerabilities related to natural disasters and potentially infrastructure security. Reports of oil well fires in the Yamalo-Nenets Okrug add to the picture of potential internal disruptions.
The reports on the US and China reaching significant progress in trade negotiations in Geneva, and Trump's statement about an important upcoming post, are major international developments that could influence the broader geopolitical landscape and the focus on the Ukraine conflict.
The reports related to the conflict in Gaza and the release of a US-Israeli soldier highlight ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which could also impact global attention and the involvement of key international actors.
Voenkor Kotenok's critical analysis of the current Russian military approach, while from a pro-Russian source, is strategically significant as it may indicate potential pressure for adjustments in tactics or strategy within the Russian military.
Rybar's commentary on British pressure on Russia's "shadow fleet" through sanctions and tanker detention threats underscores the strategic importance of economic warfare and maritime security in the conflict.
Azerbaijan's decision not to attend Victory Day commemorations, as highlighted by Alex Parker Returns, suggests a potential shift in diplomatic alignment or unresolved issues that could impact regional dynamics.
The Indian Ministry of Defense's release of satellite imagery of strikes on Pakistani airbases and radar sites is a significant strategic development, providing visual confirmation of the scale and impact of the India-Pakistan escalation and demonstrating India's capabilities in battle damage assessment and potentially strategic targeting.
The actions of the Ukrainian nurse highlighted by Operatyvnyy ZSU demonstrate the resilience and initiative of Ukrainian personnel at the tactical level, which contributes to overall defensive capability.
The detailed combat statistics and unit recognition provided by the Ukrainian General Staff are strategically important for assessing the overall battlefield situation, identifying areas of intense fighting, and understanding the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the attrition rates of Russian forces.
The fundraising efforts for armor by "Два майора" could indicate potential weaknesses in the official supply chain for military equipment protection, which is a strategic consideration for sustaining operations.
The delivery of mail to front-line troops by Russian military postal services highlights a logistical effort aimed at maintaining morale, which is strategically important for troop effectiveness.
The widespread distribution of surrender leaflets by Ukraine is a clear strategic effort to weaken the opposing force through non-kinetic means.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report